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Informing Robust Functional Relationship Benchmarks: An Evaluation of the Temperature Sensitivity of Ecosystem Respiration Across the Arctic-Boreal Region

During land model development, simulated carbon dynamics are often benchmarked against observational data sets to evaluate model performance. Functional relationship benchmarks are the relationship between a driving variable (e.g., temperature) and a response variable (e.g., ecosystem respiration) and are a promising tool for assessing model performance by evaluating modeled sensitivities to changing environmental conditions. However, observed functional relationships can be influenced by choices made during data collection and throughout the benchmarking process, impacting the inferred skill of land models. To avoid misrepresenting a model's true performance, it is necessary to systematically evaluate best practices when constructing functional relationship benchmarks. We developed a set of guidelines for constructing functional relationship benchmarks, considering the choice of data set, number of daily observations, temporal extent, and temporal resolution across Alaska and Canada over a 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration from observations, evaluated through an apparent Q 10 , is highly variable both spatially and as a result of the data processing approach applied in the benchmark formation. When benchmarking 13 models from the Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparison Project (WrPMIP), the range in inferred model skill is substantially impacted by the choices applied in constructing functional relationship benchmarks. The inferred performance of a given model is most sensitive to the number of daily observations and temporal extent, followed by choice of benchmark data set and temporal averaging. Results from this analysis can guide the development of consistent and robust functional relationships for future model evaluation studies.

Poe, Jeralyn [Northern Arizona University, Flagsta

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Downscaling

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Environmental sciences

Observational Data for Next-Generation Climate Model Evaluation: Requirements, Considerations, and Best Practices

Climate model simulations are an important source of information about our planet’s climate system and also enable informed decision-making under different future scenarios. As a new archive of results from the next generation of climate models is anticipated to become available with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), the need to develop efficient and robust methods to evaluate models is paramount. Observations are an integral part of model evaluation, providing a means to quantify and understand the degree to which climate models can faithfully reproduce Earth system processes. Such analysis is critical for constraining climate projections, identifying areas of focus for model development, and assisting analysts in deciphering the utility of models for specific applications. Observations of Earth system come from a diversity of sources, span different space–time domains, and are produced by different communities, and each dataset features different data structures and formats, metadata standards, and its own unique uncertainties. Uncertainties in an observational dataset may stem from gaps in temporal and spatial coverage, instrumentation errors, or assumptions in retrieval and processing methods. How then does one ensure that observational data are ready for use and utilized in the most appropriate way for robust, rapid, and routine climate model evaluation? The CMIP7 Model Benchmarking Task Team with input from the broader climate modeling, model evaluation, and observational data communities present a vision and considerations for best practices toward the optimal and appropriate use of observational data to support next-generation climate model evaluation.

Climate models

Assessment of Evaluations for 239 Pu Photonuclear Cross Sections

We have performed an initial assessment of available data libraries for photonuclear reactions on 239 Pu. Specifically, we considered the following five evaluated data libraries: the ENDF/B-VIII.0 and the recently deployed ENDF/B.VIII.1 Evaluated Nuclear Data Files, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Photonuclear Data Library 2019 (IAEA-2019), the Japanese evaluated nuclear data library version 5 (JENDL-5), and the 2023 version of the TALYS Evaluated Nuclear Data Library (TENDL-2023). Each of these libraries were translated form ENDF to GNDS format using FUDGE. For each of the Pu isotopes, we provide a comparison with available experimental data in the EXFOR experimental nuclear reaction database, as well as a rapid quantitative assessment of the quality of the evaluation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

LAMP Technical Readiness Evaluation Report

An internal preliminary evaluation of Critical Technology Elements (CTEs) for the LANSCE Modernization Project (LAMP) was completed in 2023. This included determining corresponding Technical Readiness Levels (TRLs) for all subsystems using the criteria of DOE G 413.3-4A, Technical Readiness Assessment Guide. This revised report includes a summary of the recent design modifications required to meet the project Key Performance Requirements (KPPs), some of which may reduce technical risk to the project. These recent design modifications include: • Further optimization of the low-energy and medium-energy beam transport regions (LEBT and MEBT, respectively), including relocation of various functional elements (ie choppers, kickers, and bunchers). • An additional H - ion source to separate ion-source function based on beam delivery requirements. • A high-repetition-rate pulsed kicker magnet to select/merge the two H ion beams into a common low-energy beam transport. • Modification and further optimization to a more conventional RFQ design. Performance of the RFQ has been optimized to deliver the required three types of beams while meeting the project KPPs. • The addition of a second chopper in the medium-energy beam transport (MEBT) line to reduce the required pulser voltages. The scope of the evaluation was limited to the project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements as defined for the RFQ Injector and Drift Tube Linac (DTL) systems only. Integration of Instrumentation and Controls (I&C) and Safety Systems was not considered, although specific technologies as related to the RFQ and DTL systems were included. Other elements of the project such as Shielding, System Design, Technical Management, and additional facility integration needed to enable off-line testing and pre-installation commissioning were also not evaluated. Each technical subsystem element was evaluated for technical readiness, however, not all were found to meet the criteria for a CTE. Three subsystem elements were determined to meet the CTE criteria. Their associated TRLs are summarized in the table below. These subsystem elements of the project have the lowest technical readiness due to either being new, novel or modified, requiring additional R&D before being capable of meeting the project Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) and subsystem requirements, or present technology exists but has not yet been demonstrated in a relevant environment. All other subsystems were determined to have a TRL of 8, indicating that actual operating systems exist having similar performance requirements as needed for LAMP. Details of the technical readiness evaluation for each subsystem is given in the following sections of this report.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS

Fossil Energy in the Hydrogen Economy – A Carbon-Water-Energy Nexus Adaptive Evaluation Platform

This project develops tools to evaluate fossil energy within the hydrogen economy. In particular, the project seeks to explore the Carbon-Water-Energy Nexus and develop adaptive evaluation tools. The primary goal of this project was to evaluate fossil-based hydrogen production methods with an emphasis on their sustainability, particularly with respect to carbon emissions and water use. The overall technical objectives that guided this evaluation consisted of 1) technology assessment, which sought to establish a comprehensive baseline of existing and emerging technologies for the generation, transportation, storage, and end use of hydrogen derived from fossil fuels, 2) carbon footprint analysis through quantification and analysis of carbon emissions associated with these hydrogen technologies, and identification of novel strategies and technologies that can effectively mitigate the carbon footprint, 3) water intensity assessment by evaluating the water needs (water-energy nexus) associated with different fossil fuel-based hydrogen technologies and proposing strategies to reduce water use, thus ensuring sustainable resource management, and 4) review of regulatory, policy and economic trends were examined to provide an overview of the factors influencing the adoption and integration of fossil fuel-derived hydrogen technologies into current energy markets. Beyond the technical outcomes, this project contributed to 5) education and workforce development through targeted training and educational opportunities for engineering students, preparing the next generation of professionals with technical, economic, and regulatory expertise in the hydrogen economy. Ultimately, this effort was intended to train the future workforce to provide useful insights to policymakers, industry stakeholders, and the broader energy community to facilitate informed decisions and responsible development within the hydrogen economy.

08 HYDROGEN

Methodology for Evaluating Commercial Energy Code Updates

This document lays out the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) methodology for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of energy code and standard proposals and editions. The evaluation is applied to new provisions or editions of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 and the International Energy Conservation Code. The methodology follows standard lifecycle cost (LCC) economic analysis procedures. A cost-effectiveness evaluation requires three steps: 1) evaluating the energy and energy cost savings of code changes; 2) evaluating the incremental and replacement costs related to the changes; and 3) determining the cost-effectiveness of energy code changes based on those costs and savings over time.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Methodology for Evaluating Energy Savings, Cost-Effectiveness, and Societal Impacts of Commercial Energy Code Changes

This document lays out the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) methodology for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of energy code and standard proposals and editions. The evaluation is applied to new provisions or editions of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 and the International Energy Conservation Code. The methodology follows standard lifecycle cost (LCC) economic analysis procedures. A cost-effectiveness evaluation requires three steps: 1) evaluating the energy and energy cost savings of code changes; 2) evaluating the incremental and replacement costs related to the changes; and 3) determining the cost-effectiveness of energy code changes based on those costs and savings over time.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival Study Live Fish Injury Assessment, Sensor Fish, and BioPA Modeling Tasks

The live fish injury assessment, Sensor Fish, and BioPA modeling study tasks were conducted by researchers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The four tasks were part of the larger Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam (HAHD) Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival study, which had six total tasks. To achieve study objectives for each of the four tasks, field work occurred at Green Peter Dam (GPR) to evaluate the highest elevation steep slope bypass pipe, at HAHD to evaluate baseline conditions of the horseshoe tunnel, and at PNNL’s Aquatic Research Laboratory (ARL) to evaluate simulated dam passage conditions (i.e., shear forces and collision). Each of these evaluations utilized live fish injury assessment, Sensor Fish, and BioPA modeling. Live fish injury assessment and survival (tagged with and without balloon or passive integrated transponder [PIT] tags) was correlated with Sensor Fish to determine thresholds. The CFD analyses were then performed, and the computed values were compared to the corresponding measured values of Sensor Fish data. The results of the overall injury and survival of fish was also used in the validation of the CFD modeling method. Collectively, the results will aid in future modeling of fish passage at HAHD. Results from these tasks can be used by biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers to inform baseline conditions under current operations and the engineering design of the new FPF at HAHD. This draft report contains initial data and results from the four tasks. Table 8 1, Table 8 2, and Table 8 3, and Figure 8 1, Figure 8 2, and Figure 8 3 depict the CFD modeling findings for the GPR steep slope bypass, HAHD horseshoe tunnel, and laboratory testing. Table 8 4, Table 8 5, and Table 8 6 depict the Sensor Fish findings for the GPR steep slope bypass and HAHD horseshoe tunnel testing. The Mv values observed in the HAHD were significantly lower compared to the laboratory experiments conducted at PNNL. Currently, investigations are underway to understand the reasons for this disparity and to establish an appropriate threshold value for Mv. Survival predictions presented in the tables below should be considered preliminary and should not be used until further analyses and adjustments are completed. The next steps for modeling will include the flow regime, (i.e., density of flow regimes due to water and air mixing ) to continue to improve on the threshold value for Mv.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

A Business Case Evaluation of Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) Technology: A Promising Technology for Natural Gas Reforming with Integrated CO2 Capture

Hydrogen is essential in the transition to sustainable energy, and developing low-carbon production methods is a key research focus. Traditional steam methane reforming (SMR) dominates the hydrogen industry but contributes substantially to CO2 emissions. In response, Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) has emerged as a novel process that integrates carbon capture and utilizes process heat more efficiently. Unlike other reforming methods, GSR consolidates oxidation and reduction reactions within a single reactor, which minimizes external energy inputs and simplifies scaling. Like conventional steam methane reforming (SMR), GSR can be integrated with water-gas shift and pressure swing adsorption units for pure hydrogen production. This work presents a comprehensive business case analysis of GSR technology based on experimental results in Technology Readiness Level 3, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Techno-Economic (TEA) evaluation incorporating ASPEN Plus process modeling considering different configurations and energy scenarios. The TEA incorporates data from kinetic experiments from various catalysts to evaluate the GSR process under various conditions. The goal of this work is to evaluate GSR’s potential to serve as a low-carbon alternative to SMR, focusing on global warming potential and additional impact categories to evaluate a wide spectrum of environmental impacts. Comparative assessments were conducted with SMR, chemical loop reforming (CLR), and proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis to explore trade-offs across environmental metrics. The environmental impact assessment of this work encompasses the entire hydrogen production lifecycle from raw material extraction to plant decommissioning, using a cradle-to-gate boundary. Preliminary findings highlight that GSR, when integrated with low-carbon energy sources, could significantly reduce environmental impacts, making it a promising candidate for low-carbon hydrogen infrastructure. The insights from this business case evaluation aim to guide industry in scale-up and commercialization of this promising clean energy technology.

03 NATURAL GAS

Cross Section Evaluation for Exclusive Channels of K+Λ and K+Σ0 Electroproduction off Protons Using CLAS Detector Data

In this work, a method for evaluating the cross sections of electroproduction of K+Λ0 and K+Σ0 off protons in the region of invariant masses of final hadrons MK + MY <W < 2.65 GeV (MK and MY being the masses of the kaon and hyperon, respectively) and squares of four-momentum transfers of virtual photons, i.e., photon virtualities 0 < Q2 < 5 GeV2, is developed based on experimental data of these exclusive channels’ cross sections measured by the CLAS detector in Hall B at Jefferson Lab. A set of algorithms has been implemented to evaluate the differential cross sections of these channels, along with their statistical and systematic uncertainties. A program was developed for the evaluation of differential cross sections and structure functions using C++ and Python libraries. An interactive website was created for working with the program, enabling the analysis of one-dimensional and two-dimensional dependences of structure functions and differential cross sections. The evaluation of differential cross sections for the K+Λ and K+Σ0 electroproduction channels is necessary for extracting the structure function σLT from the data on the polarization asymmetry of electroproduction reactions of these final states with longitudinally polarized electrons. The obtained results are also important for the development of realistic Monte Carlo event generators in planning future experiments and for evaluating the efficiency of detecting final particles when extracting reaction cross sections from experimental data.

Golda, A. V.

Technical, Economic, Energetic, and Environmental Evaluation of Pretreatment Strategies for Scaling Control in Brackish Water Desalination Brine Treatment

Effective pretreatment is essential for achieving long-term stable operation and high water recovery during the desalination of alternative waters. This study developed a process modeling approach for technical, economic, energetic, and environmental assessments of pretreatment technologies to identify the impacts of each technology treating brackish water desalination brine with high scaling propensity. The model simulations evaluated individual pretreatment technologies, including chemical softening (CS), chemical coagulation (CC), electrocoagulation (EC), and ion exchange (IX). In addition, combinations of these pretreatment technologies aiming at the effective reduction of key scaling constituents such as hardness and silica were investigated. The three evaluation parameters in this assessment consist of levelized cost of water (LCOW, $/m 3 ), specific energy consumption and cumulative energy demand (SEC|CED, kWh/m 3 ), and carbon dioxide emissions (CO 2 , kg CO 2-eq /m 3 ). The case study evaluated in this work was the desalination brine from the Kay Bailey Hutchison Desalination Plant (KBHDP) with a total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of 11,000 mg/L and rich in hardness and silica. The evaluation of individual pretreatment units from the highest to lowest LCOW, SEC|CED, and CO 2 emissions in the KBHDP brine was IX > CS > EC > CC, CS > IX > EC > CC, and CC > CS > EC > IX, respectively. In the case of pretreatment combinations for the KBHDP, the EC + IX treatment combination was shown to be the best in terms of the LCOW and CO 2 emissions. The modeling and evaluation of these pretreatment units provide valuable guidance on the selection of cost-effective, energy-efficient, and environmentally sustainable pretreatment technologies tailored to desalination brine applications for minimal- or zero-liquid discharge.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track

As Earth system models (ESMs) grow in complexity and in volume of output data, there is an increasing need for rapid, comprehensive evaluation of their scientific performance. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) will require expeditious response for model analyses designed to inform and drive integrated Earth system assessments. To meet this challenge, the Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF), a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of ESMs, was designed and developed. The initial implementation of the REF, constructed to meet the near-term needs of the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track, builds upon four disparate community evaluation and benchmarking tools that are coupled together using the Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC) framework. The REF runs within a containerized workflow for portability and reproducibility and is aimed at generating and organizing diagnostics covering a variety of model variables. The REF leverages well documented observational datasets to provide assessments of model fidelity across a collection of diagnostics. All diagnostics were identified and selected with community involvement and consultation. Operational integration with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) will permit automated execution of the REF for selected diagnostics as soon as model output data are published on ESGF by the originating modeling centers. The REF is designed to be portable across a range of current computational platforms to facilitate use by modeling centers for assessing the evolution of model versions or gauging the relative performance of CMIP simulations before being published on ESGF. When integrated into production simulation workflows, results from the REF provide immediate quantitative feedback that allows model developers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues. After the REF is released to the community, its subsequent development and support will be prioritized by an international consortium of scientists and engineers, enabling a broader impact across Earth science disciplines. For instance, the REF will facilitate improvements to models and will enhance confidence in model projections through process-based selection of models based on their performance with respect to observations. Production of reproducible diagnostics and community-based assessments are key features of the REF. Furthermore, providing interoperability with existing evaluation packages assures that contributions from previous community efforts will be available for use in future model intercomparison projects.

Hoffman, Forrest [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000158024134)

A Survey and Evaluation of High Energy Liquid Chemical Propulsion Systems: Propellant Selection Criteria for Space Missions - Part 1

This report presents the results of a study to develop a procedure for evaluating liquid propellants in order (a) to select the most appropriate propellant (from among those under development) for each of several applications on each of the various missions in the NASA program, or (b) to select new propellants (from among those being proposed) for initiation or continuation of research and development. The analysis begins with a consideration of requirements--either for the specific application or for the various classes of applications. The known characteristics of the propellant or propellants to be evaluated are then put into a convenient form for evaluation. The next step is to determine whether or not there are requirements that simply cannot be met by the propellant. If the propellant passes this test, an optimum vehicle configuration using the propellant (and meeting all requirements) is estimated. (The configuration should be optimized with respect to the total resource consumption for all aspects of the mission, including R&D, production, logistics, and operation.) The total resource consumption for this configuration is then compared with that for similar configurations using other propellants (and meeting all requirements equally well). If all factors have been properly taken into account, this comparison of resource consumption will complete the evaluation. Such an evaluation may be performed several times, in increasing detail and with correspondingly increasing accuracy, as an R&D program proceeds, and the accuracy of the data as well as the cost of the next step in the program increase. The procedure is superior to those in common use in that it minimizes both the amount of analytical work and the number of points at which subjective value judgments are made.

LIQUID PROPELLANT

Development of techniques and instrumentation for the nondestructive evaluation of multi-layer insulation

The development of techniques and instrumentation suitable for the nondestructive evaluation of purged multilayer insulation prior to and after a shuttle orbiter flight is discussed. These techniques are desirable because of the possibility that corrosion, compression, or tearing of the insulation will degrade the performance of the insulation during subsequent flights. A second objective was the application of the developed technology to the evaluation of other insulation types. Three nondestructive evaluation techniques, electromagnetic, thermal, and acoustic were selected for evaluation. The results of evaluation of each technique are described.

Source record

Skylab program earth resouces experiment package. Volume 4: Sensor performance evaluation (S193 R/S)

The results of the sensor performance evaluation of the 13.9 GHz radiometer/scatterometer, which was part of the earth resources experiment package on Skylab. Findings are presented in the areas of housekeeping parameters, antenna gain and scanning performance, dynamic range, linearity, precision, resolution, stability, integration time, and transmitter output. Supplementary analyses covering performance anomalies, data stream peculiarities, aircraft sensor data comparisons, scatterometer saturation characteristics, and RF heating effects are reported. Results of the evaluation show that instrument performance was generally as expected, but capability degradations were observed to result from three major anomalies. Conclusions are drawn from the evaluation results, and recommendations for improving the effectiveness of a future program are offered. An addendum describes the special evaluation techniques developed and applied in the sensor performance evaluation tasks.

Kenney, G. P.

Apollo flight crew cardiovascular evaluations

The results of the lower body negative pressure (LBNP) and passive stand tests are presented, and the efficacy of the experimental antihypotensive garments is evaluated. Results of the tests are presented in tabular form. Postflight orthostatic evaluations during the Apollo program indicate that reduction in orthostatic tolerance is a consequence of space flight exposure. Heart rate, the most reliable index, was increased, while systolic and pulse pressures were decreased during immediate postflight evaluations using lower body negative pressure and passive standing as the orthostatic stress. Elevation in resting heart rate was a less frequent finding. There was considerable variability in the magnitude of these changes between individual crewmembers and in the persistence of the changes over subsequent postflight evaluations. Postflight changes in leg volume during LBNP were equal to or less than those seen during preflight baseline evaluations. Body weight, resting calf girth, supine leg volume, and cardiothoracic ratios were all diminished immediately postflight, and return to preflight values was not complete within the postflight testing time frame.

G.W. Hoffler