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NASA NTRS2023

Investigating Hydroclimatic Impacts of the 168–158 BCE Volcanic Quartet and Their Relevance to the Nile River Basin and Egyptian History

The Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE) is an important period of Ancient Egyptian history known for its material and scientific advances, but also intermittent political and social unrest in the form of (sometimes widespread) revolts against the Ptolemaic elites. While the role of environmental pressures has long been overlooked in this period of Egyptian history, ice-core-based volcanic histories have identified the period as experiencing multiple notable eruptions, and a repeated temporal association between explosive volcanism and revolt has recently been noted. Here we analyze the global and regional (Nile River basin) hydroclimatic response to a unique historical sequence of four large and closely timed volcanic eruptions (first a tropical one, followed by three extratropical northern hemispheric events) between 168 and 158 BCE, a particularly troubled period in Ptolemaic history for which we now provide a more detailed hydroclimatic context. The NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2.1 Earth system model simulates a strong radiative response with a radiative forcing (top of atmosphere) of −7.5 W m−2 (following the first eruption) and −2.5 W m−2 (after each of the three remaining eruptions) at a global scale. Associated with this, we observe a global surface cooling of the order of 1.5 ∘C following the first (tropical) eruption, with the following three extratropical eruptions extending the cooling period for more than 15 years. Consequently, this series of eruptions is observed to constrain the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season, and major monsoon zones (African, South Asian, and East Asian) were seen to experience a suppression of rainfall of >1 mm d−1 during the monsoon (JJAS) season averaged for 2 years after each eruption. A substantial suppression of the Indian and North African summer monsoon (over the Nile River headwater region) was seen to strongly affect the modeled river flow in the catchment and discharge at river mouth. River mass flow over the basin was observed to decrease by 29 % and 38 % relative to an unperturbed (non-volcanic) annual mean flow in the first and second year, respectively, after the first (i.e., tropical) eruption. A moderate decrease ranging between 5 % and 18 % was observed after the third and fourth (extratropical) eruptions. These results indicate, in sum, that the first eruption likely produced a strong hydroclimate response, with the following extratropical eruptions prolonging this. These results also support the recently hypothesized association between ice-core-based signals of explosive volcanism and hydroclimatic variability during the Ptolemaic era, including the suppression of the agriculturally critical Nile summer flooding.

hydroclimate impacts↗
NASA NTRS1991

AI techniques for a space application scheduling problem

Scheduling is a very complex optimization problem which can be categorized as an NP-complete problem. NP-complete problems are quite diverse, as are the algorithms used in searching for an optimal solution. In most cases, the best solutions that can be derived for these combinatorial explosive problems are near-optimal solutions. Due to the complexity of the scheduling problem, artificial intelligence (AI) can aid in solving these types of problems. Some of the factors are examined which make space application scheduling problems difficult and presents a fairly new AI-based technique called tabu search as applied to a real scheduling application. the specific problem is concerned with scheduling application. The specific problem is concerned with scheduling solar and stellar observations for the SOLar-STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instrument in a constrained environment which produces minimum impact on the other instruments and maximizes target observation times. The SOLSTICE instrument will gly on-board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) in 1991, and a similar instrument will fly on the earth observing system (Eos).

Thalman, N.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Impactor control of central peak and peak-ring formation

The relation between the depth and diameter of excavation for impacts typically is assumed to be proportional. Such an assumption is consistent with the constant aspect ratio (diameter:depth) observed for simple craters found in a wide range of planetary settings and crater-scaling laws derived from laboratory experiments. Although complex craters exhibit evidence for floor uplift and rim collapse of a transient profile, they are typically thought to resemble initially smaller, simple craters. At large scales, however, early-time processes consume a greater fraction of crater growth and the assumption of late-time equivalence of energy release as a point source becomes inappropriate. The authors propose instead that crater diameter, depth, and impactor penetration represent separable dependent variables that underscore the fundamental difference between impact and point-source explosion excavation processes. An important consequence of this perspective is that central pits, peaks, and rings may represent contrasting target responses to impactor penetration and could provide an important indicator of impactor dimensions.

Schultz, Peter H.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Calculational investigation of impact cratering dynamics - Material motions during the crater growth period

The considered investigation was conducted in connection with studies which are to provide a better understanding of the detailed dynamics of impact cratering processes. Such an understanding is vital for a comprehension of planetary surfaces. The investigation is the continuation of a study of impact dynamics in a uniform, nongeologic material at impact velocities achievable in laboratory-scale experiments conducted by Thomsen et al. (1979). A calculation of a 6 km/sec impact of a 0.3 g spherical 2024 aluminum projectile into low strength (50 kPa) homogeneous plasticene clay has been continued from 18 microseconds to past 600 microseconds. The cratering flow field, defined as the material flow field in the target beyond the transient cavity but well behind the outgoing shock wave, has been analyzed in detail to see how applicable the Maxwell Z-Model, developed from analysis of near-surface explosion cratering calculations, is to impact cratering

Austin, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Collecting Hypervelocity Particles Intact

Experiments conducted to develop targets capturing micrometerorites, dust, and other small particles in outer space traveling at speed of several kilometers per second. Principal criterion for such target; must stop particles while preserving mineralogical properties for subsequent analysis. Collection concept simple: foam or other underdense medium used to remove kinetic energy gently from impinging particle. Well-designed collector decelerates and stops particle without imposing stresses beyond critical stresses that damage particle thermally or mechanically. Target technology also useful in terrestrial studies of debris for explosions.

Tsou, Peter↗
NASA NTRS1990

Evaluation of geophysical properties of the lunar regolith for the design of precursor scientific missions for the space exploration initiative

The following topics are addressed: (1) the frequency of encountering boulders that represent hazards to lunar operations; (2) the ease of lunar soil excavation; (3) the use of explosives in excavation operation; (4) the trafficability of the regolith; (5) problems encountered in mining (probably strip mining) of the regolith; (6) the stable angle(s) of repose in excavation of the regolith; (7) the layering to be encountered in the subsurface; (8) knowledge of the regolith site and the possibility of its general application to any site on the lunar surface; (9) the data needed to characterize a site for a lunar base; (10) the influence of regolith properties on the design of geophysical experiments from the lunar base; and (11) terrestrial analogues for the geophysical properties of the lunar regolith.

Morgan, Paul↗
NASA NTRS1976

Missile impact craters (White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico) and applications to lunar research: Contributions to astrogeology

Craters in natural materials at White Sands Missile Range, N. Mex., were produced by the impact of high-velocity to hypervelocity missiles traveling along oblique trajectories with kinetic energies between 2.1 and 81 × 1014 ergs. The oblique impacts produce craters 2 to 10 m across with morphologies and ejecta that are bilaterally symmetrical with respect to the plane of the missile trajectory. Rims are high and the amount of ejecta large in down-trajectory and lateral directions, whereas rims are low to nonexistent and ejecta thin to absent up-trajectory. Symmetry development and modifications of the symmetry are a function of target material, local topography, and angle of impact. Seven mappable units can be recognized in and around the craters. Three of these are ejecta: thick ejecta near the crater, thin to discontinuous ejecta at greater distances, and scattered ejecta at the greatest distances to the limit of throwout. These ejecta units may be absent on the up-trajectory side; if present, they are rarely as thick or continuous as on other sides of the crater. Three units are target materials: undeformed target material exposed in local patches through thin to discontinuous ejecta and everywhere between the fragments of scattered ejecta, tilted and broken target material exposed in upper crater walls, and shattered and fractured target material exposed on the up-trajectory crater wall. The seventh unit is slope material composed of talus and fallback within the crater. Development, character, and exposure of these units varies chiefly with the target material. Ejecta from the craters is chiefly broken but relatively undeformed target material that may range in size from very fine grained debris to large blocks. Where the target is porous, significant amounts of the ejecta are composed of sheared and compressed fragments, some coated with dark layers of mixed projectile pieces, powder, and fused metal mixed with crushed target material. For layered targets, the original stratigraphic sequence is crudely preserved and in inverted order in thick ejecta. Secondary impact craters are produced by the impact of ejected fragments when the surrounding surface materials are sufficiently weak. A wide variety of secondary impact crater relations may result. Secondary craters nearest the primary crater have blocks in them that are larger than or the same size as the crater they produced. Farther from the primary crater, the fragments are generally smaller than the secondary crater and are ejected from it. Excavation of four craters revealed a mixed breccia beneath the crater floor composed of missile pieces, sheared and compressed target material, and crushed debris. Banded, disaggregated target material and nonmixed breccia surrounded the mixed breccia, and these breccias were surrounded by a zone of conjugate fractures. Beneath the ejecta on the lateral and down-trajectory crater flanks, the target materials were tilted upward and broken. Up-trajectory, open fractures and downward displacement occurred in two of the craters. No displacement was observed for the other two. Beneath the down-trajectory rims of craters with distinct layering, overturned synclines were observed. Missile breakup and behavior during cratering are a function of target and missile properties. Missile breakup depends on missile velocity and is most extensive at high velocities, where the missile is fragmented, powdered, and partly fused. Burial of missile or its fragmented, powdered, and fused remains is greatest for porous targets and least for dense cohesive targets. For very porous targets, camouflet structures containing the fragmented missile may form. Least squares fit to the data on craters in dry to moist targets indicate V(a) = 10^(-11.433)E(p)^(1.205) where V(a) is the volume of the apparent crater and E(p) is the kinetic energy of the missile. This equation is consistent with expectations of the equations relating apparent depth and radius to kinetic energy. Extrapolation of displaced masses and kinetic energies for laboratory impacts with sand and rock converge near 10^(15) to 10^(16) ergs, where the extrapolations are near the data on missile impact craters, corrected for impact angle. Displaced masses of craters produced by missile impacts and by chemical explosives with small scaled depths of burial are about the same when the kinetic energies of the missiles (corrected for angle of impact) are equal to the TNT equivalent energy of the explosive. The problem of equivalent scaled depth of burst for an impact crater is complicated and not entirely resolved, however. Both missile impact craters and chemical explosive craters in water-saturated targets are larger than their counterparts in dry to moist materials. Data collected during the study of missile impact craters have helped resolve a number of problems in lunar research: (1) the soillike nature of lunar surface materials was predicted, (2) sizes of craters produced by artificial impacts were correctly predicted, (3) certain features imaged by Surveyor were found to be analogous to features associated with missile impact craters, {4) missile impacts were used in support of the Apollo passive seismic experiment, (5) craters seen in Apollo orbital photographs were found to be similar to some missile impact craters, (6) missile impact craters supplied data on sample collection and crater phenomenology used in training astronauts, and (7) some returned lunar samples are similar to coated, sheared, and compressed fragments ejected from missile impact craters.

H. J. Moore↗
NASA NTRS1977

Measurement of Blast Waves from Bursting Pressureized Frangible Spheres

Small-scale experiments were conducted to obtain data on incident overpressure at various distances from bursting pressurized spheres. Complete time histories of blast overpressure generated by rupturing glass spheres under high internal pressure were obtained using eight side-on pressure transducers. A scaling law is presented, and its nondimensional parameters are used to compare peak overpressures, arrival times, impulses, and durations for different initial conditions and sizes of blast source. The nondimensional data are also compared, whenever possible, with results of theoretical calculations and compiled data for Pentolite high explosive. The scaled data are repeatable and show significant differences from blast waves generated by condensed high-explosives.

Esparza, E. D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Theoretical and experimental studies of baroclinic processes

The geophysical fluid flow simulation code, GEOSIM, is being used to study the phenomenon of vacillation in the baroclinic annulus. Having verified that the code predicts vacillation for the same points as the experiments, the work is aiming toward explaining the mechanics of vacillation and pointing out some of the sensitivities of the results to the numerical method. Researchers are finding that there is a structural change associated with amplitude vacillation, where the structural changes are in the vertical. The results disagree with the premise of Lindzen et al, that the vacillation is due to constructive and destructive interference of neutral modes with different phase speeds. The researchers are continuing to study the Spacelab 3 Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC) results with horizontal temperature gradients and heating from below. GEOSIM has been used to compute a wide range of cases, and these are being compared with the observations. The computations and observations compare well, and the model is being used to extend the results beyond cases studied in the experiments and to study the mechanics and predictability of the flows. The study of fully nonlinear baroclinic instability using the GFFC apparatus is proceeding with the numerical code. While the first instability that occurs is of planetary scale, secondary instabilities consisting of small-scale, penetrative convection occurs where cold fluid flows over a warm surface. The simultaneous modeling of the planetary scale and the convective scale is possible because of the nonhydrostatic formulation of the model. Some of these results have been animated on the Stardent computer, which shows the explosive nature of the small-scale convection.

Miller, Tim↗
NASA NTRS2009

The ESA/NASA Multi-Aircraft ATV-1 Re-Entry Campaign: Analysis of Airborne Intensified Video Observations from the NASA/JSC Experiment

In September 2008, a joint ESA/NASA multi-instrument airborne observing campaign was conducted over the Southern Pacific ocean. The objective was the acquisition of data to support detailed atmospheric re-entry analysis for the first flight of the European Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV)-1. Skilled observers were deployed aboard two aircraft which were flown at 12.8 km altitude within visible range of the ATV-1 re-entry zone. The observers operated a suite of instruments with low-light-level detection sensitivity including still cameras, high speed and 30 fps video cameras, and spectrographs. The collected data has provided valuable information regarding the dynamic time evolution of the ATV-1 re-entry fragmentation. Specifically, the data has satisfied the primary mission objective of recording the explosion of ATV-1's primary fuel tank and thereby validating predictions regarding the tanks demise and the altitude of its occurrence. Furthermore, the data contains the brightness and trajectories of several hundred ATV-1 fragments. It is the analysis of these properties, as recorded by the particular instrument set sponsored by NASA/Johnson Space Center, which we present here.

Barker, Ed↗
NASA NTRS2009

Life Science Research in Outer Space: New Platform Technologies for Low-Cost, Autonomous Small Satellite Missions

We develop integrated instruments and platforms suitable for economical, frequent space access for autonomous life science experiments and processes in outer space. The technologies represented by three of our recent free-flyer small-satellite missions are the basis of a rapidly growing toolbox of miniaturized biologically/biochemically-oriented instrumentation now enabling a new generation of in-situ space experiments. Autonomous small satellites (~ 1 50 kg) are less expensive to develop and build than fullsize spacecraft and not subject to the comparatively high costs and scheduling challenges of human-tended experimentation on the International Space Station, Space Shuttle, and comparable platforms. A growing number of commercial, government, military, and civilian space launches now carry small secondary science payloads at far lower cost than dedicated missions; the number of opportunities is particularly large for so-called cube-sat and multicube satellites in the 1 10 kg range. The recent explosion in nano-, micro-, and miniature technologies, spanning fields from telecommunications to materials to bio/chemical analysis, enables development of remarkably capable autonomous miniaturized instruments to accomplish remote biological experimentation. High-throughput drug discovery, point-of-care medical diagnostics, and genetic analysis are applications driving rapid progress in autonomous bioanalytical technology. Three of our recent missions exemplify the development of miniaturized analytical payload instrumentation: GeneSat-1 (launched: December 2006), PharmaSat (launched: May 2009), and O/OREOS (organism/organics exposure to orbital stresses; scheduled launch: May 2010). We will highlight the overall architecture and integration of fluidic, optical, sensor, thermal, and electronic technologies and subsystems to support and monitor the growth of microorganisms in culture in these small autonomous space satellites, including real-time tracking of their culture density, gene expression, and metabolic activity while in the space environment. Flight data and results will be presented from GeneSat-1, which tracked gene expression levels of GFP-labeled E. coli and from PharmaSat, which monitored the dose dependency of an antifungal agent against S. cerevisiae. The O/OREOS SESLO instrument, which will study the effects of radiation and microgravity upon the viability and growth characteristics of B. subtilis and the halophile Halorubrum chaoviatoris for periods of 0 - 6 months in space, will be described as well. The ongoing expansion of the small satellite toolbox of biological technologies will be summarized.

Ricco, Antonio J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Prevalent properties of gamma-ray burst variability

With the aim of isolating universal characteristics of gamma-ray burst variability, we compare time histories for 20 bright bursts detected by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (Fishman et al., 1992). Using an autocorrelation function method, we find that the durations of individual structures within a burst, as well as the burst as a whole, become shorter with increasing energy in most events. We introduce the skewness function, a measure of temporal asymmetry. We find that most bursts exhibit a net skewness, in the sense that the intensity rises more rapidly than it falls. Over short time scales, bursts exhibit no preferred asymmetry. Taken together, these properties suggest that the overall time structure of a burst is due to an explosive phenomenon in which the evolution is initially energetic and rapid and is later slower during a 'cooling' period. We cannot rule out the possibility that short time-scale variability is caused by radiation beams sweeping past the observer.

Link, Bennett↗
NASA NTRS1999

Unique Aeolian Transport Mechanisms on Mars: Respective Roles of Percussive and Repercussive Grain Populations in the Sediment Load

Experiments show that when sand-size grains impact a sediment surface with energy levels commensurate for Mars, small craters are formed by the ejection of several hundred grains from the bed. The experiments were conducted with a modified crossbow in which a sand-impelling sabot replaced the bolt-firing mechanism. Individual grains of sand could be fired at loose sand targets to observe ballistic effects unhindered by aerodynamic mobilization of the bed. Impact trajectories simulated the saltation process on dune surfaces. Impact craters were not elongated despite glancing (15 deg.) bed impact; the craters were very close to being circular. High-speed photography showed them to grow in both diameter and depth after the impactor had ricochetted from the crater site. The delayed response of the bed was "explosive" in nature, and created a miniature ejecta curtain spreading upward and outward for many centimeters for impact of 100-300 um-diameter grains into similar material. This behavior is explained by deposition of elastic energy in the bed by the "percussive" grain. Impact creates a subsurface stress regime or "quasi-Boussinesq" compression field. Elastic recovery of the bed occurs by dilatancy; shear stresses suddenly convert the grains to open packing and they consequently become forcefully ejected from the site. Random jostling of the grains causes radial homogenization of stress vectors and a resulting circular crater. A stress model based on repercussive bed dilatancy and interparticle adhesive forces (for smaller grains) predicts, to first order, the observed crater volumes for various impact conditions. On earth, only a few grains are mobilized by a percussive saltating grain; some grains are "knudged" along the ground, and some are partly expelled on short trajectories. These motions constitute reptation transport. On Mars, saltation and reptation become indistinct: secondary or "repercussive" trajectories have sufficient vertical impulse to create a dense saltation population of many tens or hundreds of grains for each single high-speed saltation percussion of the bed. Impact cascading will lead to near-surface distortion of the boundary layer, and choked flow formed by a dense "slurry" of sand, with the majority of grains mobilized by repercussive forces rather than by aerodynamic lift. This proceeds until a fully-matured transport layer imposes self-limitations as grain-population density constrains the free-path motion of individial grains.

Marshall, John R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Unique Aeolian Transport Mechanisms on Mars: Respective Roles of Percussive and Repercussive Grain Populations in the Sediment Load

Experiments show that when sand-size grains impact a sediment surface with energy levels commensurate for Mars, small craters are formed by the ejection of several hundred grains from the bed. The experiments were conducted with a modified crossbow in which a sand-impelling sabot replaced the bolt-firing mechanism. Individual grains of sand could be fired at loose sand targets to observe ballistic effects unhindered by aerodynamic mobilization of the bed. Impact trajectories simulated the saltation process on dune surfaces. Impact craters were not elongated despite glancing (15 deg.) bed impact; the craters were very close to being circular. High-speed photography showed them to grow in both diameter and depth after the impactor had ricochetted from the crater site. The delayed response of the bed was "explosive" in nature, and created a miniature ejecta curtain spreading upward and outward for many centimeters for impact of 100-300 micron-diameter grains into similar material. This behavior is explained by deposition of elastic energy in the bed by the "percussive" grain. Impact creates a subsurface stress regime or "quasi-Boussinesq" compression field. Elastic recovery of the bed occurs by dilatancy; shear stresses suddenly convert the grains to open packing and they consequently become forcefully ejected from the site. Random jostling of the grains causes radial homogenization of stress vectors and a resulting circular crater. A stress model based on repercussive bed dilatancy and interparticle adhesive forces (for smaller grains) predicts, to first order, the observed crater volumes for various impact conditions. On earth, only a few grains are mobilized by a percussive saltating grain; some grains are "knudged" along the ground, and some are partly expelled on short trajectories. These motions constitute reptation transport. On Mars, saltation and reptation become indistinct: secondary or "repercussive" trajectories have sufficient vertical impulse to create a dense saltation population of many tens or hundreds of grains for each single high-speed saltation percussion of the bed. Impact cascading will lead to near-surface distortion of the boundary layer, and choked flow formed by a dense "slurry" of sand, with the majority of grains mobilized by repercussive forces rather than by aerodynamic lift. This proceeds until a fully-matured transport layer imposes self- limitations as grain-population density constrains the free-path motion of individual grains.

Marshall, John R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Data Farming and Defense Applications

.Data farm,ing uses simulation modeling, high performance computing, experimental design and analysis to examine questions of interest with large possibility spaces. This methodology allows for the examination of whole landscapes of potential outcomes and provides the capability of executing enough experiments so that outliers might be captured and examined for insights. It can be used to conduct sensitivity studies, to support validation and verification of models, to iteratively optimize outputs using heuristic search and discovery, and as an aid to decision-makers in understanding complex relationships of factors. In this paper we describe efforts at the Naval Postgraduate School in developing these new and emerging tools. We also discuss data farming in the context of application to questions inherent in military decision-making. The particular application we illustrate here is social network modeling to support the countering of improvised explosive devices.

Horne, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2006

Electrodynamics in a Very Thin Current Sheet Leading to Magnetic Reconnection

We study the formation of a very thin current sheet (CS) and associated plasma electrodynamics using three-dimensional (3-D) particle-in-cell simulations with ion to electron mass ratio M/m=1836. The CS is driven by imposed anti-parallel magnetic fields. The noteworthy features of the temporal evolution of the CS are the following: (i) Steepening of the magnetic field profile B,(z) in the central part of the CS, (ii) Generation of three-peak current distribution with the largest peak in the CS center as B,(z) steepens, (iii) Generation of converging electric fields forming a potential well in the CS center in which ions are accelerated. (iv) Electron and ion heating in the central part of the CS by current-driven instabilities (CDI). (v) Re-broadening of the CS due to increased kinetic plasma pressure in the CS center. (vi) Generation of electron temperature anisotropy with temperature perpendicular to the magnetic field being larger than the parallel one. (vii) Current disruption by electron trapping in an explosively growing electrostatic instability (EGEI) and electron tearing instability (ETI). (viii)The onset of EGEI coincides with an increase in the electron temperature above the temperature of the initially hot ions as well as the appearance of new shear in the electron drift velocity. (ix) Bifurcation of the central CS by the current disruption. (x) Magnetic reconnection (MR) beginning near the null in B, and spreading outward. (xi) Generation of highly energized electrons reaching relativistic speeds and having isotropic pitch-angle distribution in the region of reconnected magnetic fields. We compare some of these features of the current sheet with results from laboratory and space experiments.

Singh, Nagendra↗
NASA NTRS2015

Asteroid Characterization Priorities for Planetary Defense

We propose a prioritized list of asteroid characterization needs for planetary defense. In particular, we consider the properties of asteroids that are of greatest interest for assessment of planetary defense options, including gravity tractors, kinetic impactors, and nuclear explosives. In addition, much of our discussion is relevant for impact assessments and subsequent emergency-response planning. Rather than intending this as a definitive answer, however, our purpose is to stimulate and focus disscussion regarding characterization needs for planetary defense, with a specific list as a starting point. A key theme is understanding the sensitivity of the outcome of an asteroid deflection or disruption effort to the asteroids physical properties.There is a range of previous work relevant to our topic, including some explicit discussions as well as many more that are implicitly relevant. We incorporate elements from such reports while extending them using our own experience and perspectives. After introducing our prioritized list, we provide further discussion on each element, with details on the relevance of each characteristic for modeling purposes, our rationale for the assigned priority, and examples of analyses that require improved characterization information. Our goal is to establish a framework that can be modified and adapted by the community for a variety of purposes, such as mission design and optimization, development of new measurement techniques, or prioritization of research efforts. The objective is to increase understanding and reduce uncertainties in the specific aspects of characterization that most benefit accurate assessments of practical techniques for planetary defense.

Miller, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2014

Application of Fault Management Theory to the Quantitative Selection of a Launch Vehicle Abort Trigger Suite

The theory of System Health Management (SHM) and of its operational subset Fault Management (FM) states that FM is implemented as a "meta" control loop, known as an FM Control Loop (FMCL). The FMCL detects that all or part of a system is now failed, or in the future will fail (that is, cannot be controlled within acceptable limits to achieve its objectives), and takes a control action (a response) to return the system to a controllable state. In terms of control theory, the effectiveness of each FMCL is estimated based on its ability to correctly estimate the system state, and on the speed of its response to the current or impending failure effects. This paper describes how this theory has been successfully applied on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of proposed abort triggers so as to select the most effective suite to protect the astronauts from catastrophic failure of the SLS. The premise behind this process is to be able to quantitatively provide the value versus risk trade‐off for any given abort trigger, allowing decision makers to make more informed decisions. All current and planned crewed launch vehicles have some form of vehicle health management system integrated with an emergency launch abort system to ensure crew safety. While the design can vary, the underlying principle is the same: detect imminent catastrophic vehicle failure, initiate launch abort, and extract the crew to safety. Abort triggers are the detection mechanisms that identify that a catastrophic launch vehicle failure is occurring or is imminent and cause the initiation of a notification to the crew vehicle that the escape system must be activated. While ensuring that the abort triggers provide this function, designers must also ensure that the abort triggers do not signal that a catastrophic failure is imminent when in fact the launch vehicle can successfully achieve orbit. That is, the abort triggers must have low false negative rates to be sure that real crew‐threatening failures are detected, and also low false positive rates to ensure that the crew does not abort from non‐crew‐threatening launch vehicle behaviors. The analysis process described in this paper is a compilation of over six years of lessons learned and refinements from experiences developing abort triggers for NASA's Constellation Program (Ares I Project) and the SLS Program, as well as the simultaneous development of SHM/FM theory. The paper will describe the abort analysis concepts and process, developed in conjunction with SLS Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) to define a common set of mission phase, failure scenario, and Loss of Mission Environment (LOME) combinations upon which the SLS Loss of Mission (LOM) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models are built. This abort analysis also requires strong coordination with the Multi‐Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and SLS Structures and Environments (STE) to formulate a series of abortability tables that encapsulate explosion dynamics over the ascent mission phase. The design and assessment of abort conditions and triggers to estimate their Loss of Crew (LOC) Benefits also requires in‐depth integration with other groups, including Avionics, Guidance, Navigation and Control(GN&C), the Crew Office, Mission Operations, and Ground Systems. The outputs of this analysis are a critical input to SLS S&MA's LOC PRA models. The process described here may well be the first full quantitative application of SHM/FM theory to the selection of a sensor suite for any aerospace system.

Lo, Yunnhon↗