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DOE OSTI2026

Beyond interpolation: Physics-inspired gating transformers for extrapolating irradiation conditions to novel nuclear fuels

The qualification of advanced nuclear fuels relies on irradiation experiments in test reactors that emulate commercial conditions. Designing these tests requires accurate prediction of key irradiation quantities, particularly heat generation rate and burnup, yet obtaining them typically involves computationally expensive multi-step simulation workflows. We propose a physics-inspired gating transformer (PIGT) that integrates an inverse-square, distance-based attenuation into the encoder representation to bias attention toward physically relevant spatial relationships while retaining data-driven flexibility. Using MiniFuel irradiation data from the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, we benchmark against ensemble methods, feedforward and recurrent networks, convolutional models, and standard transformers. While baseline models perform well under interpolation, they exhibit a pronounced generalization gap when evaluated on fuels not included in the training set. The proposed model consistently improves extrapolative accuracy and stability, yielding the strongest performance on unseen fuel configurations. These results indicate that a lightweight physics structure embedded within attention mechanisms can substantially improve robustness, enabling more reliable surrogate predictions to accelerate the design of nuclear fuel irradiation experiments.

Fuel qualification↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of time-correlated noise on zero-noise extrapolation

Zero-noise extrapolation is a quantum error mitigation technique that has typically been studied under the ideal approximation that the noise acting on a quantum device is not time correlated. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility and performance of zero-noise extrapolation in the presence of time-correlated noise. We show that, in contrast to white noise, time-correlated noise is harder to mitigate via zero-noise extrapolation because it is difficult to scale the noise level without also modifying its spectral distribution. This limitation is particularly strong if “local” gate-level methods are applied for noise scaling. Furthermore, we find that “global” noise-scaling methods, e.g., global unitary folding, can be sufficiently reliable even in the presence of time-correlated noise.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Contact in the Unitary Fermi Gas across the Superfluid Phase Transition

A quantity known as the contact is a fundamental thermodynamic property of quantum many-body systems with short-range interactions. Determination of the temperature dependence of the contact for the unitary Fermi gas of infinite scattering length has been a major challenge, with different calculations yielding qualitatively different results. Here we use finite-temperature auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (AFMC) methods on the lattice within the canonical ensemble to calculate the temperature dependence of the contact for the homogeneous spin-balanced unitary Fermi gas. We extrapolate to the continuum limit for 40, 66, and 114 particles, eliminating systematic errors due to finite-range effects. We observe a dramatic decrease in the contact as the superfluid critical temperature is approached from below, followed by a gradual weak decrease as the temperature increases in the normal phase. Our theoretical results are in excellent agreement with the most recent precision ultracold atomic gas experiments. Here, we also present results for the energy as a function of temperature in the continuum limit.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simplified Model and Approach to Transform Infrared Surface Temperature to Film Effectiveness in a Conjugate Heat Transfer Experiment

This paper describes a simplified engineering model based on a one-dimensional thermal resistance network. The model is used to develop a new method to relate film cooling effectiveness and heat transfer augmentation to local overall cooling effectiveness in a conjugate flat plate experiment. This paper presents experimental proof-of-concept data to demonstrate the potential for this model. In contrast to previous approaches, neither the wall heat flux nor the adiabatic wall temperature is required to estimate the local film cooling performance parameters. The model predicts surface temperatures that are within the experimental uncertainties over the range for which the model is trained, and to within five percent when the model is extrapolated to higher coolant channel Reynolds numbers. This paper is relevant to conjugate test rigs that can measure the hot surface temperature distribution with and without film cooling. This information may also be relevant to designers as a method to approximate surface temperatures or used as an approximate heat transfer model for optimization studies.

advanced gas turbines↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deriving cloud droplet number concentration from surface-based remote sensors with an emphasis on lidar measurements

Abstract. Given the importance of constraining cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) in low-level clouds, we explore two methods for retrieving Nd from surface-based remote sensing that emphasize the information content in lidar measurements. Because Nd is the zeroth moment of the droplet size distribution (DSD), and all remote sensing approaches respond to DSD moments that are at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than the zeroth moment, deriving Nd from remote sensing measurements has significant uncertainty. At minimum, such algorithms require the extrapolation of information from two other measurements that respond to different moments of the DSD. Lidar, for instance, is sensitive to the second moment (cross-sectional area) of the DSD, while other measures from microwave sensors respond to higher-order moments. We develop methods using a simple lidar forward model that demonstrates that the depth to the maximum in lidar-attenuated backscatter (Rmax⁡) is strongly sensitive to Nd when some measure of the liquid water content vertical profile is given or assumed. Knowledge of Rmax⁡ to within 5 m can constrain Nd to within several tens of percent. However, operational lidar networks provide vertical resolutions of > 15 m, making a direct calculation of Nd from Rmax⁡ very uncertain. Therefore, we develop a Bayesian optimal estimation algorithm that brings additional information to the inversion such as lidar-derived extinction and radar reflectivity near the cloud top. This statistical approach provides reasonable characterizations of Nd and effective radius (re) to within approximately a factor of 2 and 30 %, respectively. By comparing surface-derived cloud properties with MODIS satellite and aircraft data collected during the MARCUS and CAPRICORN II campaigns, we demonstrate the utility of the methodology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reply to Comment by Peterie Et Al. on “Accelerated Fill‐Up of the Arbuckle Group Aquifer and Links to U.S. Midcontinent Seismicity”

Abstract Peterie et al. question one observation in our paper: associating pressure increases to injection volumes at distances of up to 25 km from an injection well. In this reply, we show that the comment misunderstands our analysis and the evidence that led to this conclusion. We also show that gauge‐depth‐corrected pressures, used by the authors to produce statewide pressure maps, are discrepant with the static fluid level data, provided in our original compilation and analysis. The discrepancies are a result of the pressure correction method employed, which naïvely substitutes formation pressure for bottomhole pressure to calculate wellbore fluid density. Their linearly interpolated pressure maps, based on sparse data, contain interpolation and extrapolation artifacts that contradict injection trends in the state, the Theis solution, and the superposition principle. We reiterate that pressure and static fluid level increases in Class I wells existed prior to 2013, most notably in central Kansas, where recent earthquakes are cited in the comment as evidence of a pressure plume emanating from the Kansas‐Oklahoma border, 90 km away. We show that the space‐time pattern of seismicity in this area is inconsistent with a northward propagating pressure plume and, instead, seismicity appears to be centered on and near a cluster of high‐rate injection wells, two of which are among the highest rate wells in the state. These observations, along with recent M4 + earthquakes during continued decreases in wastewater injection in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, question the usefulness of the comment for understanding and managing societally significant earthquakes.

Ansari, Esmail↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Multiscale Simulation of Plasma-Surface Interfaces

We report the development of an atomistic-informed, surface-state-dependent predictive model for particle exchange in a carbon-tungsten plasma-surface interface. The predictive model uses machine learning (ML) techniques to learn the energy and angular distributions for particle exchange and rate functions for surface state evolution from molecular dynamics simulations of cumulative bombardment of tungsten by energetic carbon ions. Each predictive component is sensitive to the energy and trajectory of incident plasma species and the surface state. The surface state is represented by a set of surface state descriptors, which were derived from the atomistic surface state for each independent carbon bombardment event. These descriptors are representative of the composition and degree of amorphization of the outermost angstrom of surface material and were chosen to optimize predictive performance for particle exchange at the interface. The distributions for particle exchange (reflection/sputtering) are demonstrated to vary with each surface state descriptor, motivating the development of surface-state-dependent particle exchange models for plasma simulations. The performance of various ML methods was compared, including polynomial quantile regression, artificial neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest algorithms, with polynomial regression performing the best for interpolation and extrapolation of learned relationships. In addition to the particle exchange model, a neutral network was developed and used to identify data sufficiency throughout surface descriptor space, which will enable real-time feedback during future data production to ensure data is produced where it is most needed, and we provide commentary on improvements to the data production workflow for future endeavors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Verification of Data-Driven Models of Physical Phenomena using Interpretable Approximation

Machine-learned models, specifically neural networks, are increasingly used as “closures” or “constitutive models” in engineering simulators to represent fine-scale physical phenomena that are too computationally expensive to resolve explicitly. However, these neural net models of unresolved physical phenomena tend to fail unpredictably and are therefore not used in mission-critical simulations. In this report, we describe new methods to authenticate them, i.e., to determine the (physical) information content of their training datasets, qualify the scenarios where they may be used and to verify that the neural net, as trained, adhere to physics theory. We demonstrate these methods with neural net closure of turbulent phenomena used in Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show the types of turbulent physics extant in our training datasets, and, using a test flow of an impinging jet, identify the exact locations where the neural network would be extrapolating i.e., where it would be used outside the feature-space where it was trained. Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, we also generate explanations of the neural net (à la Local Interpretable Model agnostic Explanations) at prototypes placed in the training data and compare them with approximate analytical models from turbulence theory. Finally, we verify our findings by reproducing them using two different methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic creep model incorporating test condition, initial damage, and material property uncertainty

Uncertainty is prevalent in the creep resistance of alloys, where at elevated temperature and low pressure, rupture can range across logarithmic decades. In this study, a probabilistic continuum-damage-mechanics (CDM)-based model is derived to capture the uncertainty of creep resistance. To meet this objective, creep data for alloy 304 Stainless Steel is gathered. A constitutive model, “Sinh”, is calibrated deterministically to determine the statistical variability of the material properties. Three sources of uncertainty are injected into the model: test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage, and material properties. Probabilistic simulations are carried out by (a) calibrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) for each source of uncertainty (b) randomly sampling the pdfs using Monte Carlo methods and (c) executing simulations to replicate the uncertain creep behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the relative effect of each source of uncertainty. In full probabilistic simulations, the cumulative uncertainty of creep behavior is evaluated. The probabilistic model accurately predicts the creep deformation and rupture of the available experiments. The probabilistic model is validated for interpolation but lacks extrapolation ability. Several future works are proposed to further improve the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the thermal oxidation of nuclear graphite relevant to high-temperature gas cooled reactors

Thermal oxidation of nuclear graphite components is highly undesirable because it can cause structural and property degradation that negatively affect a reactor's intended operation. In this work, the body of knowledge of nuclear graphite oxidation is highlighted, including when O 2 , H 2 O, and/or CO 2 are the oxidant. Oxidation conditions relevant to high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (i.e., when oxidation could occur either as an acute or chronic phenomenon) are emphasized. Here, the objective is to summarize graphite oxidation data in a practical and accessible way to inform future research and regulatory requirements. Although each grade of nuclear graphite is different, the oxidation mechanism has underlying commonalities. Although oxidation behavior is grade dependent, the general temperature dependence is well described by a sequence of elementary steps which become rate limiting. Because the regime transition temperature depends on sample microstructure, size, and oxidant supply rate, extrapolating results beyond the experimental range should be done cautiously. Gravimetric oxidation rate measurements generally replicate well. However, caution must be exercised when rates are estimated by other methods or for samples that deviate significantly in size. Air oxidation data for IG-110, NBG-18, and PCEA graphite is critically reviewed to emphasize this point. Despite the amount of experimental data, gaps remain. Sample size and shape effects are not fully explained. Data on the oxidant penetration depth are insufficient. Analytical assessments demonstrate that lower temperature oxidation does not necessarily imply that oxidation is uniform throughout the bulk. Oxidation occurs faster at higher temperature but is more localized to the exposed surface. Paradoxically, at equal mass loss percentage, low temperature oxidation leads to greater property degradation than at high temperature. The isolated effect of oxidation is important; however, a gap remains in the systematic understanding of any potential effect of neutron irradiation on graphite structure and reactivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interpreting experimental measurements of helium bubbles using stochastic cluster dynamics models of heterogeneous nucleation and growth in irradiated ferritic alloys

Among a number of other advantageous features, ferritic/martensitic steels are being considered as fusion reactor structural materials due to their low intrinsic swelling under irradiation. However, under high-energy neutron irradiation, He produced through (n, α) reactions stabilizes vacancy clusters, which then act as seeds for bubble formation and growth, negating the intrinsic swelling resistance of these alloys. Standard models of irradiation damage accumulation and microstructural evolution consider homogeneous nucleation as the basis for bubble formation and growth. However, this generally does not explain the large bubble densities and sizes observed experimentally under a number of different conditions. Here, we propose a more realistic physical model of bubble nucleation, formation, and growth designed to capture recent experimental measurements of He-bubble formation and evolution during co-implantation of He and Fe ions in model ferritic alloys. We find that experimental results are explained only when the following three features are considered simultaneously: (i) heterogeneous nucleation of He-vacancy bubbles at defect sinks (e.g., dislocations, grain boundaries, and second-phase precipitates), (ii) nucleation and growth of bubbles via the ‘trap mutation’ mechanism (i.e., spontaneous production of Frenkel pairs due to absorption of He atoms), and (iii) transition from a growth-limited, He-stabilized bubble regime to a ‘runaway’ void-type growth scenario. The model is implemented into a stochastic cluster dynamics framework that takes advantage of cluster size grouping methods to accelerate the simulations, allowing us to reach 10 dpa of simulated irradiated dose, and to capture cluster sizes in excess of 20 nm. Further, a careful extrapolation exercise conducted assuming classical nucleation theory leads to excellent agreement with the experimental measurements at 50 dpa of irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evidence for Cosmic Acceleration Is Robust to Observed Correlations between Type Ia Supernova Luminosity and Stellar Age

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are powerful standardizable candles for constraining cosmological models and provided the first evidence of the accelerated expansion of the universe. Their precision derives from empirical correlations, now measured from >1000 SNe Ia, between their luminosities, light-curve shapes, colors, and most recently with the stellar mass of their host galaxy. As mass correlates with other galaxy properties, alternative parameters have been investigated to improve SN Ia standardization though none have been shown to significantly alter the determination of cosmological parameters. We re-examine a recent claim, based on 34 SN Ia in nearby passive host galaxies, of a 0.05 mag Gyr -1 dependence of standardized SN Ia luminosity on host age, which, if extrapolated to higher redshifts, would be a bias up to 0.25 mag, challenging the inference of dark energy. We reanalyze this sample of hosts using both the original method and a Bayesian hierarchical model and find after a fuller accounting of the uncertainties the significance of a dependence on age to be ≤2σ and ~1σ after the removal of a single poorly sampled SN Ia. Here, to test the claim that a trend seen in old stellar populations can be applied to younger ages, we extend our analysis to a larger sample that includes young hosts. We find the residual dependence of host age (after all standardization typically employed for cosmological measurements) to be consistent with zero for 254 SNe Ia from the Pantheon sample, ruling out the large but low significance trend seen in passive hosts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating Depolarizing Noise on Quantum Computers with Noise-Estimation Circuits

A significant problem for current quantum computers is noise. While there are many distinct noise channels, the depolarizing noise model often appropriately describes average noise for large circuits involving many qubits and gates. We present a method to mitigate the depolarizing noise by first estimating its rate with a noise-estimation circuit and then correcting the output of the target circuit using the estimated rate. The method is experimentally validated on the simulation of the Heisenberg model. We find that our approach in combination with readout-error correction, randomized compiling, and zero-noise extrapolation produces results close to exact results even for circuits containing hundreds of CNOT gates.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improved accuracy and transferability of molecular-orbital-based machine learning: Organics, transition-metal complexes, non-covalent interactions, and transition states

We report molecular-orbital-based machine learning (MOB-ML) provides a general framework for the prediction of accurate correlation energies at the cost of obtaining molecular orbitals. The application of Nesbet’s theorem makes it possible to recast a typical extrapolation task, training on correlation energies for small molecules and predicting correlation energies for large molecules, into an interpolation task based on the properties of orbital pairs. We demonstrate the importance of preserving physical constraints, including invariance conditions and size consistency, when generating the input for the machine learning model. Numerical improvements are demonstrated for different datasets covering total and relative energies for thermally accessible organic and transition-metal containing molecules, non-covalent interactions, and transition-state energies. MOB-ML requires training data from only 1% of the QM7b-T dataset (i.e., only 70 organic molecules with seven and fewer heavy atoms) to predict the total energy of the remaining 99% of this dataset with sub-kcal/mol accuracy. This MOB-ML model is significantly more accurate than other methods when transferred to a dataset comprising of 13 heavy atom molecules, exhibiting no loss of accuracy on a size intensive (i.e., per-electron) basis. It is shown that MOB-ML also works well for extrapolating to transition-state structures, predicting the barrier region for malonaldehyde intramolecular proton-transfer to within 0.35 kcal/mol when only trained on reactant/product-like structures. Finally, the use of the Gaussian process variance enables an active learning strategy for extending the MOB-ML model to new regions of chemical space with minimal effort. We demonstrate this active learning strategy by extending a QM7b-T model to describe non-covalent interactions in the protein backbone–backbone interaction dataset to an accuracy of 0.28 kcal/mol.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fast emulation of quantum three-body scattering

Here, we develop a class of emulators for solving quantum three-body scattering problems. They are based on combining the variational method for scattering observables and the recently proposed eigenvector continuation concept. The emulators are first trained by the exact scattering solutions of the governing Hamiltonian at a small number of points in its parameter space, and then employed to make interpolations and extrapolations in that space. Through a schematic nuclear-physics model with finite-range two and three-body interactions, we demonstrate the emulators to be extremely accurate and efficient. The computing time for emulation is on the scale of milliseconds (on a laptop), with relative errors ranging from 10 –13 to 10 –4 depending on the case. The emulators also require little memory. We argue that these emulators can be generalized to even more challenging scattering problems. Furthermore, this general strategy may be applicable for building the same type of emulators in other fields, wherever variational methods can be developed for evaluating physical models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Clonal Expansion Using CarcSeq Measurement of Lung Cancer Driver Mutations and Correlation With Mouse Strain- and Sex-Related Incidence of Spontaneous Lung Neoplasia

Quantification of variation in levels of spontaneously occurring cancer driver mutations (CDMs) was developed to assess clonal expansion and predict future risk of neoplasm development. Specifically, an error-corrected next-generation sequencing method, CarcSeq, and a mouse CarcSeq panel (analogous to human and rat panels) were developed and used to quantify low-frequency mutations in a panel of amplicons enriched in hotspot CDMs. Mutations in a subset of panel amplicons, Braf, Egfr, Kras, Stk11, and Tp53, were related to incidence of lung neoplasms at 2 years. This was achieved by correlating median absolute deviation (MAD) from the overall median mutant fraction (MF) measured in the lung DNA of 16-week-old male and female, B6C3F1 and CD-1 mice (10 mice/sex/strain) with percentages of spontaneous alveolar/bronchioloalveolar adenomas and carcinomas reported in bioassay control groups. A total of 1586 mouse lung mutants with MFs > x 10-4 were recovered. The ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations was used to assess the proportion of recovered mutations conferring a positive selective advantage. The greatest ratio was observed in what is considered the most lung tumor-sensitive model examined, male B6C3F1 mice. Of the recurrent, nonsynonymous mouse mutations recovered, 55.5% have been reported in human tumors, with many located in or around the mouse equivalent of human cancer hotspot codons. MAD for the same subset of amplicons measured in normal human lung DNA samples showed a correlation of moderate strength and borderline significance with age (a cancer risk factor), as well as age-related cumulative lung cancer risk, suggesting MAD may inform species extrapolation.

Toxicology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Disruption Mitigation Solutions for Long Pulse Tokamaks (Final Technical Report)

The project "Disruption Mitigation Solutions for Long Pulse Tokamaks" was a collaborative effort between ORNL, GA, and UCSD. The main goal of the project was to study the injection of shattered cryogenic pellets (SPI) as a method of reducing wall damage from global tokamak plasma instabilities called disruptions. This work was primarily carried out in the JET tokamak in the UK. The team already had extensive experience studying PSI in the medium sized DIII-D tokamak in the US, but adding data from the larger JET tokamak enabled more confident extrapolation to the even larger planned ITER tokamak in France. Each of the collaborating institutions focused on different aspects of SPI disruption mitigation. The UCSD collaboration focused on the volume recombination of post-disruption runaway electron (RE) beams by massive hydrogen injection. Disruptions can sometimes result in the formation of toroidal (ring shaped) beams of highly energetic (relativistic) electron beams, which can cause serious local wall damage, even in present-day tokamaks. A promising method to reduce wall damage from the RE beams is to inject massive amounts of H 2 or D 2 into the beams using SPI. although the precise method by which the injected H 2 reducses RE wall damage is still being investigated, it seems clear that a necessary and required step for the reduction to occur is for the H 2 injection to cause volume recombination (free electron density reduction) of the background cold plasma surrounding the fast electron beam. The UCSD collaboration focused on answering the question of if this recombination could be achievable in the future reactor-size tokamak ITER using realistic levels of H 2 injection. A model capturing the most essential physics was developed and was constrained using both DIII-D and JET data. This model was then used to extrapolate to ITER. It was predicted that RE beam recombination should be achievable in ITER, although in the worst-case scenari (a 10 MA Re beam in ITER), recombination is barely achieved within the maximum allowed levels of H 2 injection.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive mesh refinement in binary black holes simulations

Abstract We discuss refinement criteria for the Berger–Rigoutsos (block-based) refinement algorithm in our numerical relativity code GR-Athena++ in the context of binary black hole (BBH) merger simulations. We compare three different strategies: the ‘box-in-box’ approach, the ‘sphere-in-sphere’ approach and a local criterion for refinement based on the estimation of truncation error of the finite difference scheme. We extract and compare gravitational waveforms using the three different mesh refinement methods and compare their accuracy against a calibration waveform and demonstrate that the sphere-in-sphere approach provides the best strategy overall when considering computational cost and the waveform accuracy. Ultimately, we demonstrate the capability of each mesh refinement method in accurately simulating gravitational waves from BBH systems—a crucial aspect for their application in next-generation detectors. We quantify the mismatch achievable with the different strategies by extrapolating the gravitational wave mismatch to higher resolution.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗