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DOE OSTI2026

Satellite Reentry Predictions During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Prediction of uncontrolled satellite reentry time and trajectory are essential to avoid damages to human being and properties over land. Reentry time and trajectory are largely controlled by aerodynamic drag and mass neutral density below 200 km. In this paper, using a numerical model of the whole atmosphere, WACCM‐X, and a Precision Orbital Determination software, we demonstrate the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009, during the deep solar minimum of 2009, may cause 0.2–0.3 day of variation in reentry time. The SSW can alter the mass density and composition mixing ratio in the lower thermosphere below 200 km through changed wave forcing and general circulation in the lower thermosphere. This is comparable to the effect of a 2‐SFU (Solar Flux Unit) solar radiance variation on the neutral density. 0.1 day of reentry time uncertainty corresponds to a global shift in impact location, that is, thousands of kilometers distance. For comparison, a major SSW during solar maximum contributes little to reentry time variation, which is predominantly controlled by the solar and geomagnetic forcing. We suggest a few proxies such as O/N 2 in the lower thermosphere or mean meridional wind to account for the lower atmosphere impacts in an operational model. This needs to be investigated in rigorous future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

We explore the representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in 27 models from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Comparison with RAPID and SAMBA observations suggests that the ensemble mean represents the AMOC strength and vertical profile reasonably well. Linear trends over the entire historical period (1850-2014) are generally neutral, but many models exhibit an AMOC peak around the 1980’s. Ensemble-mean AMOC decline in future (SSP) scenarios is stronger in CMIP6 than CMIP5 models. In fact, AMOC decline in CMIP6 is surprisingly insensitive to the scenario at least up to 2060. We find an emergent relationship among a majority of models between AMOC strength and 21st century AMOC decline. Constraining this relationship with RAPID observations suggests that the AMOC might decline between 6 and 8 Sv (34-45%) by 2100. A smaller group of models projects much less AMOC weakening of only up to 30%.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How Moist and Dry Intrusions Control the Local Hydrologic Cycle in Present and Future Climates

Models disagree on the magnitude of the intensification of hydrologic cycle extremes under climate change. Changes in these extremes are expected to scale with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation but may locally diverge due to the uncertain response of the atmospheric general circulation. Recent work has identified that the circulation contribution (the “dynamic” component) is the largest contributor to uncertainty in changes in hydrologic cycle extremes. In this work, we develop an exact budget for changes in wet and dry extremes based on changes in the associated moist and dry intrusions behind those extremes. We decompose changes into four contributors: thermodynamic, low-level convergence, anomalous meridional moisture advection, and zonal wave activity convergence. In analyzing these changes, we show that low-level convergence is the main dynamic contributor to the tropical and subtropical annual response, consistent with weakening of the Hadley circulation, and we show that anomalous meridional moisture advection is the primary dynamic contributor annually for the extratropics, consistent with storm track changes. We achieve a clean separation between dynamic and thermodynamic contributions through an empirical scaling between extremes and their associated wave activities, showing again that shifting storm tracks and expanding subtropics are critical to the dynamic response of the transient hydrologic cycle. We infer that changes in the large-scale circulation are predominantly responsible for the annual, dynamic response of hydrologic cycle extremes and therefore an important contributor to uncertainty in future projections.

Hydrological cycle, hydrological extremes, dynamic↗
DOE OSTI2022

EGS Collab Experiment 2: Earth Model Datasets

The EGS Collab Project performed a series of tests to increase the understanding the response of crystalline rock mass to stimulations and fluid circulation to efficiently implement enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) technologies. The EGS Collab team created two underground testbeds at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead SD at a depth of approximately 1.5 km (4850 level) and 1.25 km (4100 level) to examine hydraulic fracturing and hydraulic shearing, respectively. Experiment 2 was designed to examine hydraulic shearing and fluid flow in testbed 2 in amphibolite under a controlled set of stress and fracture conditions. This document summarizes the general geology, natural fractures, and conceptual model(s) of stimulated fracture networks in the testbed 2. The dataset package included here are input and output products associated with Earth Models for the EGS Collab Testbed 2. The earth model datasets are included in the whole package (project) in Leapfrog file format. Also, datasets are given in primary input file format (csv).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of an Embedded Fracture and Borehole Modeling Approach to the Understanding of EGS Collab Experiment 1

EGS Collab is a series of meso-scale experiments and associated numerical simulation activities being funded by the United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to investigate enhanced geothermal system processes under in-situ stress and slightly elevated temperature conditions. This project is designed to provide scientists and engineers with immediate access to impermeable rock at scales larger than possible in the laboratory, but generally smaller than those for commercial production. Immediate access to rock is provided via the existing drifts of the former Homestake Gold Mine, now operated as the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota. The objectives of the EGS Collab project are to develop well controlled fracture networks between injector and producer boreholes using normal and shear stimulation for permeability enhancement. The first experimental site was located off the West Access drift on the 4850 Level (4850 feet below ground surface) in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, and involved the creation of a fracture network comprising a combination of hydraulic and natural fractures. A second experimental site is now being considered near the battery alcove on the 4100 Level in amphibolite and rhyolite of the Yates Unit. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO’s flagship EGS research effort. Experiment 1 has comprised a series of successful tests, including a long-term chilled-water circulation test, but the testbed has two atypical EGS elements. Active ventilation in the adjacent drift over a 50-year period cooled the testbed rock mass and hydraulic fracturing intersected monitoring boreholes making them conduits for fluid flow. Numerical simulations executed in support of the design of the EGS Collab Experiment 1, computed a radial temperature distribution and stress gradient orthogonal to the drift axis, resulting in the forecast of an oblong hydraulic fracture geometry, extended in the direction of the drift from the stimulation borehole. This paper describes the numerical simulation of long-term chilled-water circulation test with an embedded fracture and borehole modeling approach. The principal objective of the simulation work is show agreement between experimental observations in terms of production fluid temperatures, monitoring borehole temperatures, injection and production pressures, and tracer recoveries using a single conceptual model for the fracture network, using characterization and monitoring data generally available for EGS. A secondary objective is to improve the numerical simulation result comparisons with additional data available from the broader monitoring equipment within the testbed versus deeper, hotter, and more remote EGS. One complicating factor for comparisons between the numerical simulation results and experimental observations, is the Joule-Thomson heating associated with large pressure drops across the fracture network.

numerical simulation, embedded fractures and boreh↗
DOE OSTI2021

Implementation of two-phase gas transport into VERA for molten salt reactor analysis

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are a class of next-generation nuclear reactors that have received recent industrial and research interest. A generalized species transport solver was implemented in the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) computing suite to extend this tool to analyze liquid-fueled MSRs. This core simulator has been extended to model the transport of fission product gases into a collection of circulating gas bubbles with the purpose of removing the gases. This paper presents the governing species transport equation, along with various nuclear source terms. Development of the source term for phase migration is discussed, along with a simplified interfacial area tracking method. Finally, a case study on a simplified MSR loop is presented in which modeling parameters were varied to assess their impact on gas removal. The steady state results show that parameters such as bubble diameter, gas injection rate and mass transfer coefficient have a low to moderate effect on the fraction of xenon in the core region. Removal efficiency has the greatest effect on the fraction in the core region. After the pump bowl, bubble diameter has a minor effect on the fraction of xenon in the gas void. Finally, these results point out that increasing parameters such as mass transfer coefficient, gas injection rate, and removal efficiency drives the xenon into the circulating gas void, while decreasing bubble diameter also drives xenon into the gas void by increasing interfacial area.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of the Grell-Freitas Deep Convection Scheme in Quasi-Uniform and Variable-Resolution Aquaplanet CAM Simulations

The Grell-Freitas deep convection scheme (GF) has been implemented in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the nonhydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) dynamical core. Aquaplanet simulations have been performed with a global quasi-uniform resolution mesh with ~120 km grid spacing and a variable resolution mesh employing a circular refined region with ~30 km grid spacing centering at the equator and ~120 km elsewhere. GF produces overall patterns of the general circulations comparable to those of other aquaplanet experiments, including those produced using the default Zhang-McFarlane convection scheme (ZM) in CAM Version 5.4. GF alleviates the overestimated occurrence of weak intensity precipitation characteristic of ZM due to GF’s different closure methods and deep-convection trigger conditions. Compared to ZM, the GF characteristics of the equatorial Kelvin waves are closer to observations. GF also better simulates precipitation at variable resolution, with no unrealistic wave distortion by the refinement. Overall, GF shows less sensitivity of convective precipitation and heating/moistening tendencies to changes in horizontal resolution compared to ZM. However, vertically-overlapped total cloud fraction simulated with GF in the tropics is more sensitive to the resolution than ZM due to the larger resolution-sensitivity of high-level cloud fraction in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An overview of cloud–radiation denial experiments for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1

Abstract. The interaction between clouds and radiation is a key process within the climate system, and assessing the impacts of that interaction provides valuable insights into both the present-day climate and future projections. Many modeling experiments have been designed over the years to probe the impact of the cloud radiative effect (CRE) on the climate, including those that seek to disrupt the mean CRE effect and those that only disrupt the covariance of the CRE with the circulation. Seven such experimental designs have been added to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) of the US Department of Energy. These experiments include both the first and second iterations of the Clouds On/Off Klimate Intercomparison Experiment (COOKIE) experimental design, as well as the cloud-locking method. This paper documents the code changes necessary to implement such experiments and also provides detailed instructions for how to run them. Analyses across experiment types provide valuable insights and confirm the findings of prior studies, including the role of cloud radiative heating toward intensifying the monsoon, intensifying rain rates, and poleward expansion of the general circulation owing to cloud feedbacks.

Harrop, Bryce E. (ORCID:0000000339524525)↗
DOE OSTI2023

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Commercial Grade Dedication Example Report for a Generic Sodium Pool-Type Fast Reactor Application

In the U.S., a key component of the commercialization of advanced reactors is completion of a license application, which must ultimately be approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The approval of the license application by the NRC is contingent on satisfactory demonstration of the design basis and the response of the advanced reactor design to transient and accident scenarios using accepted codes and methods. This report describes the qualification and dedication requirements that the advanced reactor safety analysis system software SAS4A/SASSYS-1 are expected to need to fulfill to be used for sodium-cooled pool-type fast reactor licensing. The qualification and dedication requirements are identified through performance critical characteristics and evaluation model acceptance criteria representative of the advanced reactor design considered for licensing. This document captures, additionally, the verification process developed to demonstrate that the software fulfills the qualification and dedication requirements for a generic sodium-cooled pool-type fast reactor as part of the commercial grade dedication process. Like most software that has primarily existed in the research and development space, the most significant challenge facing SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for use in a licensing framework is the availability of a documentation basis describing the code pedigree. SAS4A/SASSYS-1 has been used for licensing of the fast flux test facility (FFTF) and the JOYO sodium-cooled fast reactor in Japan, as well as the design of the CRBR Plant. However, the historical verification and validation (V&V) activities supporting SAS4A/SASSYS-1 development do not align with modern software quality assurance (SQA) and V&V requirements. Two approaches to use of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in a commercial licensing framework have been identified: commercial-grade dedication (CGD) and software qualification. The methods and requirements prescribed in the ASME NQA-1-2008/2009 Standard and Regulatory Guide 1.203 on the evaluation model development and assessment process (EMDAP) have been used as guidance to define the CGD and qualification processes, respectively. A qualification and dedication requirements matrix has been developed which utilizes fundamental software verification. In this process, software verification is defined as a software quality process aimed at defining software requirement specifications, developing software design documentation, and performing and documenting acceptance testing of the code against requirements. A key element of software qualification and dedication includes determination of software acceptance with respect to critical characteristics relevant to the functional requirements of the software. To assist with identification of cross-cutting transient phenomena and functional requirements, domestic SFR vendor designs have been reviewed to identify a reference SFR design. For this report, the reference design is defined as a pool-type reactor with metal alloy fuel, a liquid-metal intermediate heat transport system, and passive decay heat rejection systems. Given this reference, a series of high-level cross-cutting phenomena was identified for a general class of single-fault undercooling or reactivity insertion transients that scopes the design basis space, with the goal of assisting with prioritization of documentation development efforts for key transient models in SAS: 1) Reactivity feedback response prior to scram; 2) System-wide thermal inertia; 3) Transition in natural circulation flow regime in heat removal systems; 4) Decay heat generation; 5) Steady-state fuel characterization; 5) Clad/fuel behavior at elevated temperatures; 6) Point kinetics and decay heat; 7) Pump coastdown behavior; 8) Core flow redistribution in loss of forced convection; 9) Pool stratification. As a demonstration of CGD of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for a sodium pool reactor, a software qualification and dedication gap analysis as it relates to code documentation has been performed. This effort leverages the framework established as part of the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 SQA Program. This CGD demonstration provides a framework that vendors can build upon to demonstrate the applicability of the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 software for licensing a sodium-cooled pool-type fast reactor.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technical Documents for Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN)

The Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) provides the nuclear energy community with access to the technical, regulatory, and financial support necessary to move new or advanced nuclear reactor designs toward commercialization. GAIN provides the nuclear community with a single point of access to the broad range of capabilities (i.e., people, facilities, materials, and data) across the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex and its National Lab capabilities. The Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) is the most recent liquid metal reactor (LMR) to be designed, constructed, and operated by DOE. The 400-MWt sodium-cooled, fast-neutron flux reactor plant was designed for irradiation testing of nuclear reactor fuels and materials for liquid metal fast breeder reactors. Following the demise of the breeder reactor program in the United States, FFTF continued to play a key role in providing a test bed for demonstrating performance of advanced fuel designs and demonstrating operation, maintenance, and safety of advanced liquid metal reactors. The FFTF Program provides valuable information for potential follow-on reactor projects in the areas of plant system and component design, component fabrication, fuel design and performance, reactor control, prototype testing, and site construction. This report provides documents related to three important aspects of FFTF design and operation: 1) irradiation behavior of structural alloys and absorber materials, 2) thermohydraulics of rod bundles (i.e., coolant mixing), and 3) natural circulation heat transfer in the areas of modeling and validation. These technical documents are believed to be of interest to the nuclear industry and in particular to designers of new liquid metal reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parameter estimation with maximal updated densities

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of “true” parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs “selective regularization” only in the parameter directions not informed by data. Further, the solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters. The first problem utilizes spatial data from a stationary partial differential equation to produce a MUD estimate of an uncertain boundary condition. The second problem utilizes temporal data obtained from the state-of-the-art ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model to obtain a MUD estimate of uncertain wind drag coefficients for a simulated extreme weather event near the Shinnecock Inlet located in the Outer Barrier of Long Island, NY, USA.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Framework for Neural Network Inference on FPGA-Centric SmartNICs

FPGA-based SmartNICs offer great potential to significantly improve the performance of high-performance computing and warehouse data processing by tightly coupling support for reconfigurable data-intensive computation with cross-node communication, thereby mitigating the von Neumann bottleneck. Existing work, however, has been generally been limited in that it assumes an accelerator model where kernels are offloaded to SmartNICs, but most control tasks are left to the CPUs. This leads to frequent waiting, inferior performance, and scaling challenges. In this work, we propose a new distributive data-centric computing framework, named FCsN, for reconfigurable SmartNIC-based systems. Through a lightweight task circulation execution model and its implementation architecture, FCsN allows the complete detaching of kernel execution, control logic, system scheduling, and network communication to the SmarNICs. This boosts performance by: (i) avoiding the control dependency with CPUs and (ii) supporting streaming kernel execution and network communication at line rate and in a very fine-grained manner. We demonstrate the efficiency and flexibility of FCsN using various types of neural network applications including graph neural networks; as these last are both irregular and data intensive they offer an especially robust demonstration. Evaluations using commonly-used neural network models and graph datasets show that a system with the support of FCsN can achieve, on average, 144 speedups over the MPI-based standard CPU baselines.

Guo, Anqi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Connecting In Situ Stress and Wellbore Deviation to Near-Well Fracture Complexity Using Phase-Field Simulations

The interactions among in situ stress, rock fabric, wellbore geometry, natural fractures, and other natural or man-made defects create highly complex fracture trajectories in the near-wellbore region, far more intricate than those in the far-field. These near-wellbore complexities are critical for the Utah FORGE project and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) in general. Frictional pressure loss in the near-wellbore region during stimulation can significantly influence the growth of far-field fractures, while pressure losses during circulation serve as a major source of energy dissipation. Near-wellbore fracture complexities are often observable through image logs, offering valuable insights into in situ stress characteristics. However, leveraging this information requires a high-fidelity model capable of capturing the interplay among the diverse factors influencing fracture behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Thermal Stratification in Versatile Test Reactor Transients

The Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) is a fast-spectrum test reactor currently being developed in the United States under the direction of the US Department of Energy. The conceptual design of the 300 MWth pool-type sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) has been led by the US National Laboratories in collaboration with General Electric-Hitachi and Bechtel National Inc. Safety performance analysis for the VTR conceptual design is being performed with the systems thermal-hydraulics (SYSTH) module of the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 liquid-metal reactor safety analysis code system. Since the current model of the VTR employs a simple perfect mixing model for large plena like the hot pool, it is not able to predict temperature variations that may develop during the transient. Prior work simulating the response of SFRs to postulated events like the Protected Station Blackout (PSBO) has shown that the phenomenon of thermal stratification, where stable thermal layers accumulate in the hot pool, may delay the transition to natural circulation and thus impact the predicted transient progression. Thus, an effort has begun to model this transient by integrating a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the hot pool into the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 model of the Primary Heat Transport System during the simulation of the PSBO event. A three-dimensional Volume-Of-Fluid CFD model of the VTR hot pool has been developed for the co-simulation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 with CFD. In this work, the standalone SAS4A/SASSYS-1 calculation and the standalone CFD calculation based on the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 calculation result were produced on the Idaho National Laboratory High Performance Computing cluster, SAWTOOTH. At this time, only the standalone CFD and SAS4A/SASYS-1 simulation results are provided.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the circulation, water mass distribution, and nutrient concentrations of the western Chukchi Sea

Substantial amounts of nutrients and carbon enter the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait, distributed over three main pathways. Water with low salinities and nutrient concentrations takes an eastern route along the Alaskan coast, as Alaskan Coastal Water. A central pathway exhibits intermediate salinity and nutrient concentrations, while the most nutrient-rich water enters the Bering Strait on its western side. Towards the Arctic Ocean, the flow of these water masses is subject to strong topographic steering within the Chukchi Sea with volume transport modulated by the wind field. In this contribution, we use data from several sections crossing Herald Canyon collected in 2008 and 2014 together with numerical modelling to investigate the circulation and transport in the western part of the Chukchi Sea. We find that a substantial fraction of water from the Chukchi Sea enters the East Siberian Sea south of Wrangel Island and circulates in an anticyclonic direction around the island. This water then contributes to the high-nutrient waters of Herald Canyon. The bottom of the canyon has the highest nutrient concentrations, likely as a result of addition from the degradation of organic matter at the sediment surface in the East Siberian Sea. The flux of nutrients (nitrate, phosphate, and silicate) and dissolved inorganic carbon in Bering Summer Water and Winter Water is computed by combining hydrographic and nutrient observations with geostrophic transport referenced to lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler (LADCP) and surface drift data. Even if there are some general similarities between the years, there are differences in both the temperature–salinity and nutrient characteristics. To assess these differences, and also to get a wider temporal and spatial view, numerical modelling results are applied. According to model results, high-frequency variability dominates the flow in Herald Canyon. This leads us to conclude that this region needs to be monitored over a longer time frame to deduce the temporal variability and potential trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A status review on the thermal stratification modeling methods for Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors

The thermal stratification phenomenon plays a crucial role in the safety of various nuclear systems, including the Gen-III + Light Water Reactors (LWR) and the Gen-IV reactors. The phenomenon is of particular importance for the pool-type Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs) because it may cause neutronic and thermal-hydraulic in- stabilities in the reactor core, or lead to damages of both the reactor vessel and in-vessel components due to the growth of thermal fatigue cracking. More significantly, thermal stratification could impede the establishment of the natural circulation during accidental scenarios and introduce uncertainties to the core safety of SFRs. Efforts for modeling of the thermal stratification in SFRs have been made for decades to prevent or mitigate the damage caused by the phenomenon. This paper gives a review of the advances that have been made in recent 10 years on the computational modeling methods for thermal stratification phenomenon in SFRs. These methods can be generally drawn into two categories. The first one is the system-level methods which provide fast-running but approximate calculations, and the second one is the CFD methods which provide high-resolution calculations at high computational expense. Finally, after introducing the efforts that have been made to improve the one- dimensional (1-D) models, the paper envisioned the possible research directions that could be pursued to enhance the modeling of thermal stratification in the near future.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗