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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

BatteryPro: A Python Toolkit for Battery Data Analysis and Machine Learning Predictions

Analyzing battery test data for research & development can be time-consuming since battery tests often run on the order of months to years, generating large volumes of data. BatteryPro is a comprehensive Python package and software designed to facilitate advanced analysis and performance predictions for battery test data. Developed for battery researchers, it supports data types from widely used battery testing instruments, including MACCOR and Biologic cycling systems. The software provides a variety of tools for extracting and plotting key battery parameters such as time, voltage, capacity, current, and pressure. In addition to its extensive data analysis capabilities, BatteryPro features a dedicated machine learning module that employs a Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to predict battery performance and degradation. Users can generate synthetic capacity fade data, calculate fade metrics, and leverage predictive models to forecast long-term battery behavior. The software's graphical user interface (GUI) enhances usability, allowing researchers to upload, merge, and analyze multiple data files with full customizability. The GUI also supports machine learning predictions, enabling users to fit models and make predictions based on selected data and parameters. BatteryPro is built using QtDesigner, scikit-learn, matplotlib, and pandas, ensuring a high level of customization, flexibility, and accuracy in battery data analysis. This tool aims to empower researchers with the ability to perform detailed battery analysis and make informed predictions, ultimately advancing the field of battery research.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative Analysis and Prediction of Thermal Runaway Metrics of High-Nickel Oxide Cathodes by Machine Learning Models

The pursuit of higher energy density in lithium-ion batteries has made high-nickel (Ni) layered oxides leading cathode candidates for next-generation electric vehicles. However, their poor thermal stability, particularly at Ni contents ≥ 90%, increases the risk of cathode-initiated thermal runaway. Furthermore, we present a data-driven framework combining linear and nonlinear machine learning models to predict key thermal runaway descriptors from a high-throughput differential scanning calorimetry database. With cathode composition and state of charge (SOC) as input features, the ensemble model accurately predicts peak temperature, heat release, and peak heat flow. SHAP analysis identifies Ni content and SOC as the dominant factors controlling thermal runaway temperature, while SOC primarily governs heat release and peak heat flow. Al, Mg, and Mn improve thermal stability by strengthening metal–oxygen bonding and delaying structural transformation, whereas B mainly reduces heat release through surface passivation. Validation with a new cathode composition confirms accurate prediction of SOC-dependent thermal runaway behavior and critical SOC.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Condition-Based Maintenance of a Circulating Water System of a Canadian Nuclear Power Plant using Machine Learning and Statistical Tools

Canada Deuterium Uranium pressurized-heavy-water reactors (PHWR) are a type of nuclear power plant that generate clean and reliable energy. The scope of this work is to automate data analysis methodologies to inform a condition-based maintenance strategy of a circulating water system (CWS) of a PHWR. The multiunit CWS provides a continuous supply of water to cool steam condensers, even during transient scenarios, thereby improving the thermal efficiency. This work aims to develop a machine learning (ML) based approach to detect anomalies in heterogeneous data of a CWS in a PHWR to help inform a predictive maintenance strategy. The heterogeneous data include textual and numeric time series data for a PHWR. Natural-language-processing (NLP)-based models are used to analyze textual data contained in work orders and operator logs and an event-timeseries correlation detection method is applied to assist anomalies diagnoses for CWS. An ML model Robust Linear Model (RLM) is also used to remove the seasonal variations in the system variable distributions based on distributions of environmental variables. A machine learning model, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), trained on both original data and data without any seasonal variations will then be used to detect if an anomaly exists. Thus, by moving to an automated methodology to detect, classify, and forecast anomalies, the maintenance strategy would be based on component condition instead of a time-based schedule.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evolution and Degradation Patterns of Electrochemical Cells Based on the Analysis of Interfacial Phenomena at Li Metal Anode/Electrolyte Interfaces

In this work, we report the results of a theoretical–computational analysis of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) growth and degradation dynamics occurring in lithium metal batteries during cycling. We use ab initio-kinetic Monte Carlo simulations to generate a synthetic data set, which is analyzed by machine learning methods. We aim to determine: (i) how modifications in interfacial interaction energies between solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) blocks and between Li ions and SEI facets impact the Coulombic efficiency (CE) of the battery and (ii) what factors, including reactions, microscopic transport, and other interfacial events, may lead to cell performance “failure” during prolonged charge and discharge cycles, signaled as a sharp decay in the CE over cycling. The demonstration of our approach is done on a cell including a Li metal surface interfacing with a previously introduced state-of-the-art electrolyte, and the idea can be applied to any electrochemical system. Outcomes include the identification of the leading chemical, physical, and structural variables causing cell failure and relating them to the electrolyte formulation, thus paving the way to future more refined analysis and electrolyte design.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2024

Moment extraction using an unfolding protocol without binning

Deconvolving (“unfolding”) detector distortions is a critical step in the comparison of cross-section measurements with theoretical predictions in particle and nuclear physics. However, most existing approaches require histogram binning while many theoretical predictions are at the level of statistical moments. We develop a new approach to directly unfold distribution moments as a function of another observable without having to first discretize the data. Our moment unfolding technique uses machine learning and is inspired by Boltzmann weight factors and generative adversarial networks (GANs). We demonstrate the performance of this approach using jet substructure measurements in collider physics. With this illustrative example, we find that our moment unfolding protocol is more precise than bin-based approaches and is as or more precise than completely unbinned methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

RealisticSensors

An Unreal Engine 5 plugin for generating synchronized, timestamped multi-modal sensor data for machine learning and robotics applications.

Greenwood, Scott↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Learning the generating functional for variance reduction in lattice QCD

The generating functional in quantum field theory provides the natural framework for constructing correlation functions as derivatives with respect to source operators. We present a methodology that leverages machine-learned normalizing flows to reduce the variance of arbitrary $N$-point correlation functions of bosonic operators in lattice gauge field theory calculations by encoding a representation of the generating functional. We show that it is possible to systematically approach noiseless estimators of correlation functions in this framework. We demonstrate this methodology with applications to calculations of glueball correlation functions and Wilson loops in Quantum Chromodynamics and Yang-Mills theory. The results show up to three orders of magnitude variance reduction.

Abbott, Ryan [Columbia U.] (ORCID:0000000258778005↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo using machine learning models

Here, this work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian inference often substitute computationally expensive high-fidelity models with machine learning models, thereby introducing approximation errors, our approach offers a computationally efficient alternative by augmenting high-fidelity models with low-fidelity ones within a hierarchical framework. The multilevel approach utilizes the low-fidelity machine learning model (MLM) for inexpensive evaluation of proposed samples thereby improving the acceptance of samples by the high-fidelity model. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from geometric multigrid hierarchy. We utilize an MLM to accelerate the coarse level sampling. Training machine learning model for the coarsest level significantly reduces the computational cost associated with generating training data and training the model. We present an MCMC algorithm to accelerate the coarsest level sampling using MLM and account for the approximation error introduced. We provide theoretical proofs of detailed balance and demonstrate that our multilevel approach constitutes a consistent MCMC algorithm. Additionally, we derive the expression for cost reduction due to machine learning model to facilitate cost analysis of the hierarchical sampling algorithm. Our technique is demonstrated on a standard benchmark inference problem in groundwater flow, where we estimate the probability density of a quantity of interest using a four-level MCMC algorithm. Our proposed algorithm accelerates multilevel sampling by a factor of two while achieving similar accuracy compared to sampling using the standard multilevel algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data from: "Towards CONUS-Wide ML-Augmented Conceptually-Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics"

This data package was generated to support the manuscript “Towards CONUS-Wide Machine Learning-Augmented Conceptually Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics.” It provides input files, model outputs, plotting data, scripts, notebooks, and documentation used to develop, evaluate, and reproduce Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP)-based hydrologic modeling experiments across 513 selected Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies in the United States (CAMELS-US) basins. The files are organized by modeling component and analysis purpose, including rainfall–runoff experiments, snow module experiments, coupled hydrologic-snow experiments, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) benchmark results, model skill metrics, initialization and epoch records, cell-state normalization files, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)-based model comparison files, and data used to generate manuscript figures. Tabular files can be opened using standard spreadsheet software or Python/R data-analysis tools. Python scripts, Jupyter notebooks, and selected MATLAB scripts are included for model execution, postprocessing, plotting, and statistical analysis. Quality assurance and quality control were conducted through the source-data selection and modeling workflow. Meteorological forcing, streamflow, and static catchment attributes were derived from the CAMELS-US dataset, and snow water equivalent data were derived from the University of Arizona (UA) Snow Water Equivalent dataset. Selected basins and time periods were screened during the associated research workflow to avoid missing observations or poor-quality cases. Static geospatial features were processed primarily using Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) and Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL) workflows. Additional details are provided in the associated manuscript and documentation.

ESS-DIVE CSV File Formatting Guidelines Reporting ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deciphering the Solvation Structure of Aqueous ZnCl 2 Solutions from X-ray Absorption Spectra Using the Interpretable Graph Neural Network

Machine learning (ML) provides powerful pathways for predicting spectroscopic observables from atomic structures, but its broader impact depends on making model predictions interpretable in terms of physical and chemical principles. Here, we introduce a physics-guided graph neural network (GNN) model that predicts Zn K-edge X-ray spectroscopy (XAS) spectra of aqueous ZnCl 2 solutions. Training data are generated from ab initio XAS calculations on molecular dynamics snapshots obtained using a machine learning interatomic potential. The GNN reproduces experimental spectra across concentrations from dilute (<0.1 m) to highly concentrated (30 m, “water-in-salt”) regimes and scales efficiently to large, disordered liquid systems beyond the reach of conventional ab initio approaches. Gradient-based attribution analysis reveals that the model learns physically meaningful structure-spectrum relationships. Ligand-specific attributions reflect orbital hybridization patterns and the origin of the excitations derived from the density functional theory. Bond-length attributions recover spectral shifts consistent with multiple-scattering theory. Finally, this work bridges data-driven prediction with electronic-structure theory, establishing a general paradigm for interpretable ML that links atomic structure, electronic structure, and spectroscopic observables.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Applying Machine‐Learning Methods to Laser Acceleration of Protons: Lessons Learned From Synthetic Data

ABSTRACT In this study, we consider three different machine‐learning methods—a three‐hidden‐layer neural network, support vector regression, and Gaussian process regression—and compare how well they can learn from a synthetic data set for proton acceleration in the Target Normal Sheath Acceleration regime. The synthetic data set was generated from a previously published theoretical model by Fuchs et al. 2005 that we modified. Once trained, these machine‐learning methods can assist with efforts to maximize the peak proton energy, or with the more general problem of configuring the laser system to produce a proton energy spectrum with desired characteristics. In our study, we focus on both the accuracy of the machine‐learning methods and the performance on one GPU including memory consumption. Although it is arguably the least sophisticated machine‐learning model we considered, support vector regression performed very well in our tests.

Desai, Ronak↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using a Large Language Model for Accurate Technical Language Generation in the Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Machine learning (ML) methods for predictive maintenance (PdM) are emerging as effective proactive strategies for diagnosing equipment degradation and enabling effective decision-making. However, explainability and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence are two salient challenges that need to be addressed for wider deployment of these technologies in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Large language models (LLMs) offer a unique approach to tackle these challenges by explaining PdM, work orders, diagnosis results, and ML algorithms to users, who may not be familiar with ML and PdM in general. Moreover, by dynamically retrieving relevant information from technical documents and evaluating factuality of LLM generation, the accuracy and relevance of LLM generations can be improved. This work demonstrates using LLMs to explain the causes and consequences of circulating water system failures based on multiyear NPP work orders. This work tests the capability of multimodal LLM approaches in explaining the differences in the circulating water system from both the Salem and Hope Creek NPPs using both text and image resources. This work also demonstrates the use of multimodal LLMs in describing the diagnosis tab of a predictive maintenance software named VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER) to users.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tokamak divertor plasma emulation with machine learning

Abstract Future tokamak devices that aim to create conditions relevant to power plant operations must consider strategies for mitigating damage to plasma facing components in the divertor. One of the goals of MAST-U tokamak operations is to inform these considerations by researching advanced divertor configurations that aid stable plasma detachment. Machine design, scenario planning and detachment control would all greatly benefit from tools that enable rapid calculation of scenario-relevant quantities given some input parameters. This paper presents a method for generating large, simulated scrape-off layer data sets, which was applied to generate a data set of steady-state Hermes-3 simulations of the MAST-U tokamak. A machine learning model was constructed using a Bayesian approach to hyperparameter optimisation to predict diagnosable output quantities given control-relevant input features. The resulting best-performing model, which is based on a feedforward neural network, achieves high accuracy when predicting electron temperature at the divertor target and carbon impurity radiation front position and runs in around 1 ms in inference mode. Techniques for interpreting the predictions made by the model were applied, and a high-resolution parameter scan of upstream conditions was performed to demonstrate the utility of rapidly generating accurate predictions using the emulator. This work represents a step forward in the design of machine learning-driven emulators of tokamak exhaust simulation codes in operational modes relevant to divertor detachment control and plasma scenario design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-guided design of direct methanol fuel cells with a platinum group metal-free cathode

Direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) offer a promising solution for clean electricity generation, particularly in small electronics and remote auxiliary power units. However, optimizing their efficiency and performance is challenging due to the complex interactions between various factors. Here, we present a novel approach that integrates experiments with machine learning to model and predict the performance of these fuel cells using atomically dispersed platinum group metal (PGM)-free catalysts at the cathode. Further, our machine learning models, trained on diverse input parameters, allow for the comprehensive optimization of DMFC performance prior to fabrication and testing. Through extensive experimental validation, we demonstrate that this data-driven approach accurately predicts key performance metrics, such as maximum power output and polarization curves. By combining our models with interpretable game-theory methods, we provide deep insights into the factors governing fuel cell performance, ultimately paving the way for the design of scalable and efficient DMFC technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Bond Dissociations of Reactive Machine Learning Potentials through Physics-Constrained Data Augmentation

In the field of computational chemistry, predicting bond dissociation energies (BDEs) presents well-known challenges, particularly due to the multireference character of reactive systems. Many chemical reactions involve configurations where single-reference methods fall short, as the electronic structure can significantly change during bond breaking. As generating training data for partially broken bonds is a challenging task, even state-of-the-art reactive machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) often fail to predict reliable BDEs and smooth dissociation curves. By contrast, simple and inexpensive physics-based models, such as the well-established Morse potential, do not suffer from any such limitations. This work leverages the Morse potential to improve reactive MLIPs by augmenting the training data set with inexpensive Morse data along the dissociation pathways. Further, this physics-constrained data augmentation (PCDA) approach results in MLIPs with smooth bond dissociation curves as well as near coupled-cluster level BDEs, all without requiring any expensive multireference quantum mechanical calculations. A case study for methane combustion demonstrates how the PCDA approach can improve an existing reactive MLIP, namely, ANI-1xnr. In conclusion, not only are the BDEs and bond dissociation curves for all radicals and molecules significantly improved compared to ANI-1xnr but the PCDA-trained MLIP retains the reliability of ANI-1xnr when performing reactive molecular dynamics simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗