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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

The Origin, Composition and History of Comets from Spectroscopic Studies

A wealth of information essential to understanding the composition and physical structure of cometary ice and hence gain deep insight into the comet's origin and history, can be gleaned by carrying out a full range of spectroscopic studies on the returned sample. These studies ought to be among the first performed as they are generally non-destructive and will provide a broad data bank which will be crucial in planning subsequent analysis. Examples of the spectroscopic techniques along with relative sensitivities and transitions probed, are discussed. Different kind of "spectroscopy" is summarized, with emphasis placed on the kind of information each provides. Infrared spectroscopy should be the premier method of analysis as the mid-IR absorption spectrum of a substance contains more global information about the identity and structure of that material than any other property. In fact, the greatest strides in our understanding of the composition of interstellar ices (thought by many to be the primordial material from which comets have formed) have been taken during the past ten years or so because this was when high quality infrared spectra of the interstellar medium (ISM) first became available. The interpretation of the infrared spectra of mixtures, such as expected in comets, is often (not always) ambiguous. Consequently, a full range of other non-destructive, complementary spectroscopic measurements are required to fully characterize the material, to probe for substances for which the IR is not well suited and to lay the groundwork for future analysis. Given the likelihood that the icy component (including some of the organic and mineral phases) of the returned sample will be exceedingly complex, these techniques must be intensely developed over the next decade and then made ready to apply flawlessly to what will certainly be one of the most precious, and most challenging, samples ever analyzed.

Allamandola, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Initial Analysis of the Pixel-Level Uncertainties in Global MODIS Cloud Optical Thickness and Effective Particle Size Retrievals

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrievals of cloud optical thickness and effective particle radius employ well-known solar reflectance techniques using pre-calculated reflectance look-up tables. We evaluate the quantitative uncertainty in simultaneous retrievals of cloud optical thickness and particle size for this type of algorithm. The technique uses sensitivity calculations derived from the reflectance look-up tables, coupled with estimates for the effect of various error terms on the uncertainty in inferring the actual cloud-top reflectance. The error terms include the effects of instrument calibration, surface spectral albedo, and atmospheric corrections on both water and ice cloud retrievals. Because particle shapes in ice clouds are highly variable, the effect of particle shape is analyzed separately with a more approximate method. Results will deal exclusively with pixel-level uncertainties associated with plane-parallel clouds; real-world radiative departures from a plane-parallel model are an additional consideration. While we demonstrate the uncertainty technique with operational 1 km MODIS retrievals from the Terra and Aqua satellite platforms, the technique is applicable to any reflectance-based satellite- or air-borne sensor retrieval using similar spectral channels.

Platnick, S.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Using OSSEs to Evaluate the Impacts of Geostationary Infrared Sounders

An observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) was performed to assess the impact of assimilating hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiances from geostationary orbit on numerical weather prediction, with a focus on the proposed sounder on board the Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) program’s central satellite. Infrared sounders on a geostationary platform would fill several gaps left by IR sounders on polar-orbiting satellites, and the increased temporal resolution would allow the observation of weather phenomena evolution. The framework for this OSSE was the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) OSSE system, which includes a full suite of meteorological observations. The experiment additionally assimilated four identical IR sounders from geostationary orbit to create a “ring” of vertical profiling observations. Based on the experimentation, assimilation of the IR sounders provided a beneficial impact on the analyzed mass and wind fields, particularly in the tropics, and produced an error reduction in the initial 24–48 h of the subsequent forecasts. Specific attention was paid to the impact of the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) over the contiguous United States (CONUS) as this is a region that is well-observed and as such difficult to improve. The forecast sensitivity to observation impact (FSOI) metric, computed across all four synoptic times over the CONUS, reveals that the GXS had the largest impact on the 24-h forecast error of the assimilated hyperspectral infrared satellite radiances as measured using a moist energy error norm. Based on this analysis, the proposed GXS has the potential to improve numerical weather prediction globally and over the CONUS.

OSSE↗
NASA NTRS1991

Global water cycle

The primary objective is to determine the scope and interactions of the global water cycle with all components of the Earth system and to understand how it stimulates and regulates changes on both global and regional scales. The following subject areas are covered: (1) water vapor variability; (2) multi-phase water analysis; (3) diabatic heating; (4) MSU (Microwave Sounding Unit) temperature analysis; (5) Optimal precipitation and streamflow analysis; (6) CCM (Community Climate Model) hydrological cycle; (7) CCM1 climate sensitivity to lower boundary forcing; and (8) mesoscale modeling of atmosphere/surface interaction.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Precise navigation for the Earth Observing System (EOS)-AM1 spacecraft using the TDRSS Onboard Navigation System (TONS)

As the baseline navigation system for the Earth Observing System (EOS)-AM1 spacecraft, the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Onboard Navigation System (TONS) is required to provide precise position and velocity information for imaging instrument calibration and routine operations. This paper presents the results of real-time navigation performance evaluations with respect to TONS-based orbit and frequency determination to satisfy this requirement. Both covariance and simulation analysis of EOS-AM1 navigation accuracy and analysis using operational data from Landsat-4 are presented. Local (half orbit) and global (multiple orbits) tracking are considered using a way-forward link services. Improvements in navigation accuracies by using enhanced gravity models beyond the Goddard Earth Model (GEM)-T3 are also discussed. Key objectives of the analysis are to evaluate nominal performance and potential sensitivities and to address algorithm improvements such as TDRS ephemeris biasing, ionosphere model, and gravity process noise models slated for implementation. Results indicate that TONS can be configured to meet the proposed instrument navigation requirements of 20 meters, 3-sigma.

Folta, David C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

MGS Radio Science Electron Density Profiles: Interannual Variability and Implications for the Martian Neutral Atmosphere

Martian electron density profiles provided by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Radio Science (RS) experiment over the 95-200 km altitude range indicate that the height of the electron peak and the longitudinal structure of the peak height are sensitive indicators of the physical state of the Mars lower atmosphere. The present analysis is carried out on five sets of occultation profiles, all at high solar zenith angles (SZA). Variations spanning 2-Martian years are investigated near aphelion conditions at high Northern latitudes (64.7-77.6N). A mean ionospheric peak height of 133.5-135 km was obtained for all aphelion profiles near SZA = 78-82; a corresponding mean peak density of 7.3-8.5 x 10(exp 4)/cu cm was also measured, reflecting solar moderate conditions. Strong wave 2-3 oscillations in peak heights were observed as a function of longitude over both Martian seasons. The Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) is exercised for Mars aphelion conditions. The measured interannual variations in the mean and longitude structure of the peak heights are small (consistent with MTGCM simulations), signifying the repeatability of the Mars atmosphere during aphelion conditions. A non-migrating (semi-diurnal period, wave#l eastward propagating) tidal mode is likely responsible for the wave#3 longitude features identified. The height of this photochemically driven peak can be observed to provide an ongoing monitor of the changing state of the Mars lower atmosphere. The magnitudes of these same peaks may reflect more than changing solar EUV fluxes when they are located in the vicinity of Mars crustal magnetic field centers.

Bougher, Stephen W.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Substructure Versus Property-Level Dispersed Modes Calculation

This paper calculates the effect of perturbed finite element mass and stiffness values on the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the finite element model. The structure is perturbed in two ways: at the "subelement" level and at the material property level. In the subelement eigenvalue uncertainty analysis the mass and stiffness of each subelement is perturbed by a factor before being assembled into the global matrices. In the property-level eigenvalue uncertainty analysis all material density and stiffness parameters of the structure are perturbed modified prior to the eigenvalue analysis. The eigenvalue and eigenvector dispersions of each analysis (subelement and property-level) are also calculated using an analytical sensitivity approximation. Two structural models are used to compare these methods: a cantilevered beam model, and a model of the Space Launch System. For each structural model it is shown how well the analytical sensitivity modes approximate the exact modes when the uncertainties are applied at the subelement level and at the property level.

Stewart, Eric C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hourly Electricity Demand Projections for Eight Combined Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of simulated historical hourly electricity demand (i.e., loads) and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly loads for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) and 48 states plus the District of Columbia. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. The two primary models that created the dataset are a version of the Global Change Analysis Model with detailed sectoral resolution over the United States (GCAM-USA) and the Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. Links to the model source code and workflow for deriving the dataset are provided in an accompanying meta-repository: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/burleyson-etal_2024_applied_energy. Projections are for four future climate scenarios that represent combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 combined with two levels of climate model sensitivities: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. The four climate scenarios are crossed with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5 to yield eight different future load projections: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotter_ssp3, and rcp85hotter_ssp5. The climate scenarios are from the IM3 Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) dataset which is linked below in the related metadata. The related metadata also contains links to a repository containing the raw GCAM-USA output files.

Climate Change↗
NASA NTRS2003

Global and Local Helioseismic Studies of Solar Convection Zone Dynamics Using SOI-MDI on SOHO

Our joint collaborative analyses of global mode data to characterize the solar differential rotation (e.g. Thompson et al. 1996, Schou et al. 1998), and most recently to detect and analyze temporal variations in angular velocity Omega profiles both within the convection zone and in the deeper radiative interior (e.g. Howe et al 2000a,b; Toomre et al. 2000), have led to a series of fascinating discoveries. These should be pursued further as the solar cycle continues. The physical deductions being made from these studies have been greatly strengthened by utilizing both SOI-MDI and GONG data in order to have two independent observational realizations of Doppler images spanning a five-year interval, using two separate procedures to determine global mode splittings, and then analyzing those splitting data sets using both RLS and SOLA inversion procedures. There are considerable subtleties in the effects of instrumental response functions and calibrations, sensitivity of peak finding algorithms and their mode leakage estimates, and stochastic variations in mode amplitudes that can all contribute to apparent changes in the Omega profiles being inferred from sequences of helioseismic data. We have come to understand the implications of many of these calibration and analysis steps, greatly aided by frequent multi-week collaborative working sessions in our Helioseismic Analysis Facility (HAF) at JILA involving many members of the SO1 dynamics and inversion team, including most of our Co-Is during the summer months when we hold intensive working sessions. Considerable further focused attention is required in a collaborative setting on such global mode issues as we continue studying the changing sun.

Toomre, Juri↗
DOE OSTI2026

Superstructure Optimization of Waste Plastic Pyrolysis, Integrating Thermal, Catalytic, and Plasma Technologies with Machine Learning

Global plastic waste generation exceeds 430 million tonnes per year, yet fewer than 9% are recycled in the United States. Pyrolysis offers a chemical recycling route at scale, but existing techno-economic and life cycle assessments fix product yields to single pure polymers, producing economic and environmental outputs that break down when the feed composition changes. Here, we present a superstructure optimization framework that addresses this by embedding a composition-aware random forest yield predictor, trained on 566 pyrolysis experiments, within a full-scale process simulation. Product distributions update automatically as feed allocation shifts across four reactor chemistries: conventional thermal, catalytic (HZSM-5), thermal oxo-degradation, and nonequilibrium CO2 plasma. The optimal superstructure achieves minimum selling prices of −0.56 to −0.76/kg feed and global warming potentials of −0.276 to −0.322 kg CO2-eq/kg feed across four commodity price scenarios, confirming profitable, carbon-negative operation without tipping fees. Carbon abatement costs of $\$$0.46 to $\$$1.25/kg CO2-eq are competitive with direct air capture. Sensitivity analysis shows that the catalytic-plasma split fraction is the single largest driver of both economic and climate performance, while hydrocracking allocation in the wax upgrading stage is emission-neutral across the full variable range. Mixed plastic waste streams, evaluated as composition-variable feedstocks rather than pure resins, are profitable and carbon-negative across realistic market conditions. These results give a quantitative basis for reactor selection, circular economy investment, and policy design targeting chemical recycling on a large scale.

Life cycle assessment↗
NASA NTRS2005

GLOBAL REFERENCE ATMOSPHERIC MODELS FOR AEROASSIST APPLICATIONS

Aeroassist is a broad category of advanced transportation technology encompassing aerocapture, aerobraking, aeroentry, precision landing, hazard detection and avoidance, and aerogravity assist. The eight destinations in the Solar System with sufficient atmosphere to enable aeroassist technology are Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for five of these targets - Earth, Mars, Titan, Neptune, and Venus - have been developed at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. These models are useful as tools in mission planning and systems analysis studies associated with aeroassist applications. The series of models is collectively named the Global Reference Atmospheric Model or GRAM series. An important capability of all the models in the GRAM series is their ability to simulate quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analysis in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, for aerothermal design, and for other applications sensitive to atmospheric variability. Recent example applications are discussed.

Duvall, Aleta↗
NASA NTRS2020

Robust Algorithm for Estimating Total Suspended Solids (TSS) in Inland and Nearshore Coastal Waters

One of the challenging tasks in modern aquatic remote sensing is the retrieval of near-surface concentrations of Total Suspended Solids (TSS). This study aims to present a Statistical, inherent Optical property (IOP) -based, and muLti-conditional Inversion proceDure (SOLID) for enhanced retrievals of satellite-derived TSS under a wide range of in-water bio-optical conditions in rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters. In this study, using a large in situ database (N > 3500), the SOLID model is devised using a three-step procedure: (a) water-type classification of the input remote sensing reflectance (R(sub rs)), (b) retrieval of particulate backscattering (b(sub bp)) in the red or near-infrared (NIR) regions using semi-analytical, machine-learning, and empirical models, and (c) estimation of TSS from b(sub bp) via water-type-specific empirical models. Using an independent subset of our in situ data (N = 2729) with TSS ranging from 0.1 to 2626.8 [g/m (exp 3)], the SOLID model is thoroughly examined and compared against several state-of-the-art algorithms (Miller and McKee, 2004; Nechad et al., 2010; Novoa et al., 2017; Ondrusek et al., 2012; Petus et al., 2010). We show that SOLID outperforms all the other models to varying degrees, i.e., from 10 to > 100%, depending on the statistical attributes (e.g., global versus water-type-specific metrics). For demonstration purposes, the model is implemented for images acquired by the MultiSpectral Imager aboard Sentinel-2A/B over the Chesapeake Bay, San-Francisco-Bay-Delta Estuary, Lake Okeechobee, and Lake Taihu. To enable generating consistent, multimission TSS products, its performance is further extended to, and evaluated for, other missions, such as the Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), and Operational Land Imager (OLI). Sensitivity analyses on uncertainties induced by the atmospheric correction indicate that 10% uncertainty in Rrs leads to < 20% uncertainty in TSS retrievals from SOLID. While this study suggests that SOLID has a potential for producing TSS products in global coastal and inland waters, our statistical analysis certainly verifies that there is still a need for improving retrievals across a wide spectrum of particle loads.

Total suspended solids↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Relationship Between Constraint and Ductile Fracture Initiation as Defined by Micromechanical Analyses

The use of small laboratory specimens to predict the integrity of large, complex structures relies on the validity of single parameter fracture mechanics. Unfortunately, the constraint loss associated with large scale yielding, whether in a laboratory specimen because of its small size or in a structure because it contains shallow flaws loaded in tension, can cause the breakdown of classical fracture mechanics and the loss of transferability of critical, global fracture parameters. Although the issue of constraint loss can be eliminated by testing actual structural configurations, such an approach can be prohibitively costly. Hence, a methodology that can correct global fracture parameters for constraint effects is desirable. This research uses micromechanical analyses to define the relationship between global, ductile fracture initiation parameters and constraint in two specimen geometries (SECT and SECB with varying a/w ratios) and one structural geometry (circumferentially cracked pipe). Two local fracture criteria corresponding to ductile fracture micromechanisms are evaluated: a constraint-modified, critical strain criterion for void coalescence proposed by Hancock and Cowling and a critical void ratio criterion for void growth based on the Rice and Tracey model. Crack initiation is assumed to occur when the critical value in each case is reached over some critical length. The primary material of interest is A516-70, a high-hardening pressure vessel steel sensitive to constraint; however, a low-hardening structural steel that is less sensitive to constraint is also being studied. Critical values of local fracture parameters are obtained by numerical analysis and experimental testing of circumferentially notched tensile specimens of varying constraint (e.g., notch radius). These parameters are then used in conjunction with large strain, large deformation, two- and three-dimensional finite element analyses of the geometries listed above to predict crack initiation loads and to calculate the associated (critical) global fracture parameters. The loads are verified experimentally, and microscopy is used to measure pre-crack length, crack tip opening displacement (CTOD), and the amount of stable crack growth. Results for A516-70 steel indicate that the constraint-modified, critical strain criterion with a critical length approximately equal to the grain size (0.0025 inch) provides accurate predictions of crack initiation. The critical void growth criterion is shown to considerably underpredict crack initiation loads with the same critical length. The relationship between the critical value of the J-integral for ductile crack initiation and crack depth for SECT and SECB specimens has been determined using the constraint-modified, critical strain criterion, demonstrating that this micromechanical model can be used to correct in-plane constraint effects due to crack depth and bending vs. tension loading. Finally, the relationship developed for the SECT specimens is used to predict the behavior of circumferentially cracked pipe specimens.

Panontin, Tina L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Infrasonic Signatures of Earth-Grazing Fireballs as Analogues to Hypersonic Vehicles (Final Report)

Accurate detection, discrimination, and characterization of high-altitude hypersonic events using infrasonic monitoring are critical to planetary defense and global strategic surveillance. This report synthesizes recent advances achieved through rigorous analysis of infrasonic signatures from natural meteoroids, emphasizing shallow entry-angle meteoroids as essentially proxies for artificial hypersonic systems. Meteoroids naturally encompass diverse velocities, trajectories, altitudes, and fragmentation behaviors, enabling systematic validation of empirical period–yield relationships, waveform morphology classifiers, and trajectory-induced back-azimuth deviation models. Integration of adaptive array-processing enhancements within Cardinal software further extends infrasonic detection sensitivity and signal classification reliability. Collectively these advances, based solely on infrasonic signatures or limited optical data, offer robust methodologies for distinguishing natural from artificial hypersonic sources, significantly reducing event geolocation uncertainties and refining source-function determination. The outcomes detailed herein lay foundational groundwork for improved global hypersonic event-surveillance frameworks, supporting improved security preparedness and informing strategic monitoring and defense policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

MGS Radio Science Electron Density Profiles: Interannual Variability and Implications for the Martian Neutral Atmosphere

Martian electron density profiles provided by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Radio Science (RS) experiment over the 95-200 km altitude range indicate what the height of the electron peak and the longitudinal structure of the peak height are sensitive indicators of the physical state of the Mars lower and upper atmospheres. The present analysis is carried out on five sets of occultation profiles, all at high solar zenith angles (SZA). Variations spanning 2 Martian years are investigated near aphelion conditions at high northern latitudes (64.7 - 77.6 N) making use of four of these data sets. A mean ionospheric peak height of 133.5 - 135 km is obtained near SZA = 78 - 82 deg.; a corresponding mean peak density of 7.3 - 8.5 x l0(exp 4)/ qu cm is also measured during solar moderate conditions at Mars. Strong wave number 2 - 3 oscillations in peak heights are consistently observed as a function of longitude over the 2 Martian years. These observed ionospheric features are remarkably similar during aphelion conditions 1 Martian year apart. This year-to-year repeatability in the thermosphere-ionosphere structure is consistent with that observed in multiyear aphelion temperature data of the Mars lower atmosphere. Coupled Mars general circulation model (MGCM) and Mars thermospheric general circulation model (MTGCM) codes are run for Mars aphelion conditions, yielding mean and longitude variable ionospheric peak heights that reasonably match RS observations. A tidal decomposition of MTGCM thermospheric densities shows that observed ionospheric wave number 3 features are linked to a non-migrating tidal mode with semidiurnal period (sigma = 2) and zonal wave number 1 (s = -1) characteristics. The height of this photochemically determined ionospheric peak should be monitored regularly.

Bougher, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS2022

A NASA-Air Force Precipitation Analysis for Near-Real-Time Operations

This article describes a new precipitation analysis algorithm developed by NASA for time-sensitive operations at the United States Air Force. Implemented as part of the Land Information System—a land modeling and data assimilation software framework—this NASA–Air Force Precipitation Analysis (NAFPA) combines numerical weather prediction model outputs with rain gauge measurements and satellite estimates to produce global, gridded 3-h accumulated precipitation fields at approximately 10-km resolution. Input observations are subjected to quality control checks before being used by the Bratseth analysis algorithm that converges to optimal interpolation. NAFPA assimilates up to 3.5 million observations without artificial data thinning or selection. To evaluate this new approach, a multiyear reanalysis is generated and intercompared with eight alternative precipitation products across the contiguous United States, Africa, and the monsoon region of eastern Asia. NAFPA yields superior accuracy and correlation over low-latency (up to 14 h) alternatives (numerical weather prediction and satellite retrievals), and often outperforms high-latency (up to 3.5 months) products, although the details for the latter vary by region and product. The development of NAFPA offers a high-quality, near-real-time product for use in meteorological, land surface, and hydrological research and applications.

Africa↗
NASA NTRS2022

Detailing Cloud Property Feedbacks with a Regime-Based Decomposition

Diagnosing the root causes of cloud feedback in climate models and reasons for inter-model disagreement is a necessary first step in understanding their wide variation in climate sensitivities. Here we bring together two analysis techniques that illuminate complementary aspects of cloud feedback. The first quantifies feedbacks from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth, while the second separates feedbacks due to cloud property changes within specific cloud regimes from those due to regime occurrence frequency changes. We find that in the global mean, shortwave cloud feedback averaged across ten models comes solely from a positive within-regime cloud amount feedback countered slightly by a negative within-regime optical depth feedback. These within-regime feedbacks are highly uniform: In nearly all regimes, locations, and models, cloud amount decreases and cloud albedo increases with warming. In contrast, global-mean across-regime components vary widely across models but are very small on average. This component, however, is dominant in setting the geographic structure of the shortwave cloud feedback: Thicker, more extensive cloud types increase at the expense of thinner, less extensive cloud types in the extratropics, and vice versa at low latitudes. The prominent negative extratropical optical depth feedback has contributions from both within- and across-regime components, suggesting that thermodynamic processes affecting cloud properties as well as dynamical processes that favor thicker cloud regimes are important. The feedback breakdown presented herein may provide additional targets for observational constraints by isolating cloud property feedbacks within specific regimes without the obfuscating effects of changing dynamics that may differ across timescales.

climate sensitivity↗