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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

EMS-Induced Mutagenesis of Clostridium carboxidivorans for Increased Atmospheric CO 2 Reduction Efficiency and Solvent Production

Clostridium carboxidivorans (P7) is one of the most important solvent-producing bacteria capable of fermenting syngas (CO, CO 2 , and H 2 ) to produce chemical commodities when grown as an autotroph. This study aimed to develop ethyl methanesulfonate (EMS)-induced P7 mutants that were capable of growing in the presence of CO 2 as a unique source of carbon with increased solvent formation and atmospheric CO 2 reduction to limit global warming. Phenotypic analysis including growth and end product characterization of the P7 wild type (WT) demonstrated that this strain grew better at 25 °C than 37 °C when CO 2 served as the only source of carbon. In the current study, 55 mutagenized P7-EMS mutants were developed by using 100 mM and 120 mM EMS. Interestingly, using a forward genetic approach, three out of the 55 P7-EMS mutants showed a significant increase in ethanol, butyrate, and butanol production. The three P7-EMS mutants presented on average a 4.68-fold increase in concentrations of ethanol when compared to the P7-WT. Butyric acid production from 3 P7-EMS mutants contained an average of a 3.85 fold increase over the levels observed in the P7-WT cultures under the same conditions (CO 2 only). In addition, one P7-EMS mutant presented butanol production (0.23 ± 0.02 g/L), which was absent from the P7-WT under CO 2 conditions. Most of the P7-EMS mutants showed stability of the obtained end product traits after three transfers. Most importantly, the amount of reduced atmospheric CO 2 increased up to 8.72 times (0.21 g/Abs) for ethanol production and up to 8.73 times higher (0.16 g/Abs) for butyrate than the levels contained in the P7-WT. Additionally, to produce butanol, the P7-EMSIII-J mutant presented 0.082 g/Abs of CO 2 reduction. This study demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of employing EMS mutagenesis in generating solvent-producing anaerobic bacteria mutants with improved and novel product formation and increased atmospheric CO 2 reduction efficiency.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic analysis of carbon dioxide capture from low concentration sources using membranes

Rising carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels in the atmosphere lead to global warming, causing climate change. As such, carbon capture has become necessary to slow the increase and reduce CO 2 levels in the atmosphere. Point source emissions have a wide range of CO 2 concentrations, but emissions below 3% CO 2 have mostly been ignored because Carbon capture from these sources has been viewed as costly and economically unsustainable. Membrane technologies are considered the most viable solution by virtue of more energy-efficient operation. Our group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed poly[bis((2-methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP)-based carbon dioxide selective membranes with CO 2 /N 2 selectivity greater than 40 and CO 2 permeability greater than 450 Barrer. To understand the economics of carbon capture, a spreadsheet-based techno-economic analysis (TEA) model was developed to consider multiple parameters, including selectivity and permeability of the membranes, performance conditions such as the number of stages, module material, electricity price, membrane price, and capital financing. The cost of carbon capture in US $\$$/metric ton was calculated at various purities and compared with other membrane processes, cryogenic capture, solvent-based capture, and pressure swing adsorption-based capture. It was determined that a MEEP-based three-stage process had a capture cost of US $\$$ 50.1/metric ton for 99.8% purity CO 2 from a 1% CO 2 feed source in nitrogen (N 2 ). In conclusion, the capture cost using the best performing Pebax-based membrane was 464% higher, cryogenic capture was 60%–140% higher, pressure swing adsorption was 55%–165% higher, and chemical absorption was -10%–110% higher than MEEP-based membrane capture, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent

Climate change has been projected to increase the intensity and magnitude of extreme temperature in Indonesia. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a strategy to temporarily combat global warming, buying time for negative emissions. Though the global impacts of SRM have been extensively studied in recent years, regional impacts, especially in the tropics, have received much less attention. This paper investigates the potential stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering to modify mean and extreme temperature, as well as the relative humidity and wet bulb temperature (WBT) change over Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) based on simulations from three different earth system models. We applied statistical downscaling and corrected the bias of model output to reproduce historical temperatures and relative humidity over IMC. We compared SRM as specified by the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 experiment – 5 Tg of SO 2 into the lower stratosphere between 2020 and 2069 – concurrent with the RCP4.5 emissions scenario. SRM is able to significantly reduce the temperature means and extremes, and although differences in magnitude of response and spatial pattern occur, there is a generally consistent response. Additionally, the spatial response of changes forced by RCP4.5 scenario and SRM impact is notably heterogeneous in the archipelago, highlighting uncertainties that would be critical in assessing socio-economic consequences of both doing, and not doing SRM. In general, SRM has bigger impacts in reducing temperatures over land than oceans, and the southern monsoon region shows more variability. SRM is also effective at reducing the likelihood of WBT > 27OC events compared to RCP4.5 after some years of SRM deployment as well as during the post-termination period of SRM. Regional downscaling may be an effective tool in obtaining policy-relevant information about local effects of different future scenarios involving SRM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate

Tropical land generally experiences the hottest period (spring) in a year just before the onset of wet season. Previous studies suggested that in a warming climate, the wet season would come later, but its origin is debated and its impact on temperature remains unknown. Here, we find that the warming of hot season would be amplified under global warming, and refer to it as “hot-season-gets-hotter” phenomenon. The amplified hot season warming is closely tied to the amplified warming of hot temperature percentiles. The hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon is mainly due to the rainfall delay and most evident in the Amazon, where spring is warming by almost 1?K more than the annual mean and the 99th percentile temperatures are warming ~30% more than the mean by the end of 21st century in a high emission scenario. Comparing experiments with and without land-atmosphere coupling, it is further found that the rainfall delay is initially driven by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and then substantially amplified by positive soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. In the satellite period, observations consistently show that the hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon has already emerged along with the rainfall delay in the Amazon. Intensified hot and dry spring climate can enhance risks of drought, heatwaves and wildfires, threatening the Amazon forest and habitats in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C –1 . Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ocean liming effect on a North Atlantic microbial community: changes in composition and rates

The ongoing rise in atmospheric CO 2 levels and the consequent global warming make it increasingly difficult to maintain the global temperature within the 1.5 - 2°C target set by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, strategies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are being developed, with ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) gaining most attention. Within OAE, ocean liming- the addition of quicklime (CaO) or hydrated lime (Ca(OH) 2 )- can not only remove CO 2 from the atmosphere but potentially counteract the effects of ocean acidification. Although quite attractive, these technologies have yet to be tested regarding ecological safety and efficacy. Here we report the impacts of ocean liming on the abundance, composition and extracellular enzymatic activity (EEA) rates of a North Atlantic planktonic community. The results demonstrate that OAE led to a decreased phytoplankton development, mainly diatoms. The bacterial response to OAE was community-specific, with a consistent increase in the relative abundance of the order Oceanospirillales. OAE also led to increased EEA rates, especially within the bacterial community. These findings suggest that while initial effects on phytoplankton may be limited, the specific impacts on bacterial groups suggest that OAE could influence the remineralization of organic matter. If our results apply to other communities, OAE might initially affect marine microbial dynamics, but further studies are needed to determine if these effects are long-term.

16S↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world

Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Evaluation of Dynamical Downscaling Methods Used to Project Regional Climate Change

In the past decade, dynamical downscaling using “pseudo-global-warming” (PGW) techniques has been applied frequently to project regional climate change. Such techniques generate signals by adding mean global climate model (GCM)-simulated climate change signals in temperature, moisture, and circulation to lateral and surface boundary conditions derived from reanalysis. An alternative to PGW is to downscale GCM data directly. This technique should be advantageous, especially for simulation of extremes, since it incorporates the GCM's full spectrum of changing synoptic-scale dynamics in the regional solution. Here, we test this assumption, by comparing simulations in Europe and Western North America. We find that for warming and changes in temperature extremes, PGW often produces similar results to direct downscaling in both regions. For mean and extreme precipitation changes, PGW generally also performs surprisingly well in many cases. Moisture budget analysis in the Western North America domain reveals why. Large fractions of the downscaled hydroclimate changes arise from mean changes in large-scale thermodynamics and circulation, that is, increases in temperature, moisture, and winds, included in PGW by design. The one component PGW may have difficulty with is the contribution from changes in synoptic-scale variability. When this component is large, PGW performance could be degraded. Global analysis of GCM data shows there are regions where it is large or dominant. Hence, our results provide a road map to identify, through GCM analyses, the circumstances when PGW would not be expected to accurately regionalize GCM climate signals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photosynthetic capacity is reduced by warming but unaffected by elevated CO2 in seedlings of five boreal tree species

Abstract Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations fuel global warming, with boreal regions warming at a faster rate than many other areas. Boreal forests are an important component of the global carbon cycle, yet we have little data on photosynthetic responses of boreal trees to elevated CO2 (EC) and warming. We grew seedlings of 5 widespread North American boreal tree species (from Betula, Larix, Picea, and Pinus) under current (410 ppm) or elevated (750 ppm) CO2 and either ambient (+0 °C) or increased (+4 °C or +8 °C) temperature, then measured photosynthetic traits over a range of leaf temperatures. Our results were generally consistent across species: photosynthetic capacity (maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation, Vcmax, and electron transport, Jmax) was unaffected by EC but decreased under +8 °C warming. Accordingly, net photosynthesis measured at the growth CO2 concentration (Agrowth) was reduced under warming and increased under EC. The thermal optimum for Agrowth (ToptA) increased by ∼1.8 °C with EC but increased with warming in only two species. In contrast, the activation energies and thermal optima for Vcmax and Jmax, which are used to estimate photosynthesis in Earth System Models, were unaffected by growth environment. There were a few interactions between growth, CO2, and warming. These results suggest increased photosynthesis of widespread boreal tree species under EC may be offset by future reductions in photosynthetic capacity related to warming. We also show that the temperature sensitivities of parameters used to estimate global photosynthesis in large-scale models are generally unaffected by simulated climate change in these species.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electric Vehicle Charging Management in Smart Energy Communities to Increase Renewable Energy Hosting Capacity

Abnormal climates due to global warming have emerged as a big concern in the global community. To mitigate climate change and achieve sustainability, distributed energy resources (DERs), including solar and wind, have been recently deployed in power systems. As the penetration level of DERs has increased, however, it caused a multitude of issues in the power systems, such as voltage fluctuation in the distribution network limiting renewable hosting capacity. On the other hand, the electric vehicle (EV) industry is rapidly growing to facilitate the transition to a carbon-neutral community, illuminating the potential of EVs as a flexible grid asset to mitigate some of the issues and improve grid operation, if properly exploited. To explore the potential of EVs, this paper proposes an EV scheduling strategy. By using an optimal EV charging scheduling proposed, distribution system operators (DSOs) can minimize their operating costs and stably operate the system with a high level of DERs. To validate the method, a modified IEEE 33-bus system with DERs is developed. The case study shows the proposed scheduling strategizes EV charging to reduce the cost of PV curtailment. In the study, the method outperforms the renewable-only case with curtailment by 4.97% in DSO cost. It also demonstrates its potential to increase the renewable hosting capacity by harmonizing EV charging with renewables.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Warming effects on grassland soil microbial communities are amplified in cool months

Abstract Global warming modulates soil respiration (RS) via microbial decomposition, which is seasonally dependent. Yet, the magnitude and direction of this modulation remain unclear, partly owing to the lack of knowledge on how microorganisms respond to seasonal changes. Here, we investigated the temporal dynamics of soil microbial communities over 12 consecutive months under experimental warming in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem. The interplay between warming and time altered (P < 0.05) the taxonomic and functional compositions of microbial communities. During the cool months (January to February and October to December), warming induced a soil microbiome with a higher genomic potential for carbon decomposition, community-level ribosomal RNA operon (rrn) copy numbers, and microbial metabolic quotients, suggesting that warming stimulated fast-growing microorganisms that enhanced carbon decomposition. Modeling analyses further showed that warming reduced the temperature sensitivity of microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) by 28.7% when monthly average temperature was low, resulting in lower microbial CUE and higher heterotrophic respiration (Rh) potentials. Structural equation modeling showed that warming modulated both Rh and RS directly by altering soil temperature and indirectly by influencing microbial community traits, soil moisture, nitrate content, soil pH, and gross primary productivity. The modulation of Rh by warming was more pronounced in cooler months compared to warmer ones. Together, our findings reveal distinct warming-induced effects on microbial functional traits in cool months, challenging the norm of soil sampling only in the peak growing season, and advancing our mechanistic understanding of the seasonal pattern of RS and Rh sensitivity to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methane Integrated Monitoring and Measurement System Design

Methane (CH 4 ), an abundant greenhouse gas, is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). In comparison to CO 2 , CH 4 has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. While technologies to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions are materializing, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Methane is primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction/utilization and is currently monitored via bottom-up (i.e., activity level) or top-down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected, and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this report, we study methane leaks from oil and gas infrastructure using a tiered monitoring approach that combines bottom-up and top-down approaches in an integrated framework. We describe the individual advantages of bottom-up and top-down sensors in both stationary and mobile settings before characterizing how a fully integrated framework can improve predictions and uncertainties of potential leak locations and their emission rates. Further, we study the impact of different atmospheric (wind) conditions on integrated methane monitoring and develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement, thereby shortening detection times and improving monitoring capabilities. Last, we discuss how biogenic flux modeling can be used to improve assessment of background methane concentrations needed to fully assess the sensitivity of a tiered monitoring system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust increase in South Asian monsoon rainfall under warming driven by extratropical clouds and ocean

The responses of South Asian Monsoon (SAM) circulation under global warming are known to be highly uncertain, leading to the wide spread of SAM rainfall projections among models. Here, we show that the uncertain SAM circulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models consists of two robust components that partly offset each other: a weakening component linked to a global thermodynamic constraint and a northward shift component understood through a regional 2D energetic perspective. We further attribute the robust northward shift of SAM circulation to positive cloud feedback over the Eurasia Continent and heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. A set of climate model simulations supports the finding that SAM rainfall increase is primarily due to the northward shift of circulation driven by extratropical processes. This energetic perspective opens new avenues for predicting monsoon rainfall by connecting circulation changes to radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-performance multimode elastocaloric cooling system

Developing zero–global warming potential refrigerants has emerged as one area that helps address global climate change concerns. Various high-efficiency caloric cooling techniques meet this goal, but scaling them up to technologically meaningful performance remains challenging. We have developed an elastocaloric cooling system with a maximum cooling power of 260 watts and a maximum temperature span of 22.5 kelvin. These values are among the highest reported for any caloric cooling system. Its key feature is the compression of fatigue-resistant elastocaloric nitinol (NiTi) tubes configured in a versatile multimode heat exchange architecture, which allows the harnessing of both high delivered cooling power and large temperature spans. Our system shows that elastocaloric cooling, which only emerged 8 years ago, is a promising direction for commercializing caloric cooling.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the design of integrated methane sensing networks

Abstract While methane is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide, it has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. Despite accelerated technological efforts to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Being primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction, methane is currently monitored via bottom–up (i.e. activity level) or top–down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this paper, we study the design of a layered monitoring approach that combines bottom–up and top–down approaches as an integrated sensing network. By recognizing that varying meteorological conditions and emission rates impact the efficacy of bottom–up monitoring, we develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement in its bottom–up network. Subsequently, we derive an inverse Bayesian framework to quantify the improvement that a design-optimized integrated framework has on emission-rate quantifications and their uncertainties. We find that under realistic meteorological conditions, the overall error in estimating the true emission rates is approximately 1.3 times higher, with their uncertainties being approximately 2.4 times higher, when using a randomized network over an optimized network, highlighting the importance of optimizing the design of integrated methane sensing networks. Further, we find that optimized networks can improve scenario coverage fractions by more than a factor of 2 over experimentally-studied networks, and identify a budget threshold beyond which the rate of optimized-network coverage improvement exhibits diminishing returns, suggesting that strategic sensor placement is also crucial for maximizing network efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced jet stream waviness induced by suppressed tropical Pacific convection during boreal summer

Abstract Consensus on the cause of recent midlatitude circulation changes toward a wavier manner in the Northern Hemisphere has not been reached, albeit a number of studies collectively suggest that this phenomenon is driven by global warming and associated Arctic amplification. Here, through a fingerprint analysis of various global simulations and a tropical heating-imposed experiment, we suggest that the suppression of tropical convection along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone induced by sea surface temperature (SST) cooling trends over the tropical Eastern Pacific contributed to the increased summertime midlatitude waviness in the past 40 years through the generation of a Rossby-wave-train propagating within the jet waveguide and the reduced north-south temperature gradient. This perspective indicates less of an influence from the Arctic amplification on the observed mid-latitude wave amplification than what was previously estimated. This study also emphasizes the need to better predict the tropical Pacific SST variability in order to project the summer jet waviness and consequent weather extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A critical review on the progress and challenges to a more sustainable, cost competitive synthesis of adipic acid

Adipic acid is a key organic diacid intermediate used in nylon manufacturing. It is primarily produced by an industrial process that can form nitrous oxide as a byproduct. Nitrous oxide has a 300-fold higher global warming potential than carbon dioxide, and an estimated 10% of its annual global emissions are a result of adipic acid production. These concerns have led to significant efforts for the development of nitrous oxide mitigation technologies as well as more environmentally friendly routes for adipic acid production. New processes include both advanced chemical and biotechnological routes. Here in this review, we discuss key recent developments in mitigation as well as new technologies. We also provide a critical look at the potential of new technologies to compete with the incumbent process and highlight key remaining technical challenges to the development of greener (environmentally sustainable) and cost competitive (commercially sustainable) processes for adipic acid manufacture.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?

Abstract. A 15-member ensemble of convection-permitting regional simulations of the fast-moving and destructive derecho of 29–30 June 2012 that impacted the northeastern urban corridor of the USA is presented. This event generated 1100 reports of damaging winds, generated significant wind gusts over an extensive area of up to 500 000 km2, caused several fatalities, and resulted in widespread loss of electrical power. Extreme events such as this are increasingly being used within pseudo-global-warming experiments to examine the sensitivity of historical, societally important events to global climate non-stationarity and how they may evolve as a result of changing thermodynamic and dynamic contexts. As such it is important to examine the fidelity with which such events are described in hindcast experiments. The regional simulations presented herein are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The resulting ensemble is used to explore simulation fidelity relative to observations for wind gust magnitudes, spatial scales of convection (as is manifest in high composite reflectivity, cREF), and both rainfall and hail production as a function of model configuration (microphysics parameterization, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), start date, use of nudging, compiler choice, damping, and number of vertical levels). We also examine the degree to which each ensemble member differs with respect to key mesoscale drivers of convective systems (e.g., convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear) and critical manifestations of deep convection, e.g., vertical velocities, cold-pool generation, and how those properties relate to the correct characterization of the associated atmospheric hazards (wind gusts and hail). Use of a double-moment, seven-class scheme with number concentrations for all species (including hail and graupel) results in the greatest fidelity of model-simulated wind gusts and convective structure to the observations of this event. All ensemble members, however, fail to capture the intensity of the event in terms of the spatial extent of convection and the production of high near-surface wind gusts. We further show very high sensitivity to the LBCs employed and specifically that simulation fidelity is higher for simulations nested within ERA-Interim compared to ERA5. Excess convective available potential energy (CAPE) in all ensemble members after the derecho passage leads to excess production of convective cells, wind gusts, cREF > 40 dBZ, and precipitation during a frontal passage on the subsequent day. This event proved very challenging to forecast in real time and to reproduce in the 15-member hindcast simulation ensemble presented here. Future work could examine if simulations with other initial and lateral boundary conditions can achieve greater fidelity.

Shepherd, Tristan (ORCID:0000000186276419)↗