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Topics addressed include: origin of the moon; mineralogy of rocks; CO2 well gases; ureilites; antarctic meteorites; Al-26 decay in a Semarkona chondrule; meteorite impacts on early earth; crystal structure and density of helium; Murchison carbonaceous chondrite composition; greenhouse effect and dinosaurs; Simud-Tiu outflow system of Mars; and lunar radar images.
A major accomplishment during last year is the recongition of and modeling of the solid-state greenhouse effect for icy satellites. Recent observations of eclipse reappearances suggest that this effect may in fact be observed on Europa and Ganymede. Also the PI has obtained important new data on Europa and Enceladus. Evidence for the transient presence of a volatile, perhaps NH3, OH, on Europa has been obtained. Newly obtained spectra of Enceladus suggest that it does not at present have ammonia or methane in detectable quantities on its surface.
Although it is well known that unconfined chemical explosives may yield pressures to several megabars on detonation in air, the explosive literature has yet to be accessed by some contributors to the volcanological literature who've indicated that pressures in excess of the overburden and/or tensile cannot be obtained. Idealized ballistic assessments of pressures internal to volcanoes yield pressures in the hundreds of kilobar range upon correction by addition of friction, etc. Previous assessments of exploding magma chamber pressure have been made from the characteristics of the Mt. St. Helens explosion. A variety of methods yield pressures of similar value: at least hundreds of kilobars. Such results are consistent with free energy requirements for quench supersaturation explosion, a process occurring in solidifying industrial melts. Several reviews of geochemical literature emphasize the carbon event at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary as being an indicator of a massive dump of CO2 derived from the mantle and entering the atmosphere by extensive global volcanism. Oxygen isotope data indicates extreme warming at the end of the Cretaceous which is consistent with a greenhouse effect attending the CO2 event. Reaction rate equations for the quench supersaturation explosion mechanism indicated, are consistent with the rise in pressure to 30 kbar on solidification of magmatic melts, these pressures limited by the strength of the experimental apparatus.
The potential of the Global Positioning System (GPS) for precise earth observation is evaluated. It is projected that soon GPS will be utilized to track remote-sensing satellites with subdecimeter accuracy. The first will be Topex/Poseidon, a US/French ocean altimetry mission to be launched in 1991. In addition, it is suggested that developments planned for future platforms may push orbit accuracy near 1 cm within a decade. GPS receivers on some platforms will track the signals down to the earth limb to observe occultation by intervening media. This will provide comprehensive information on global temperature and climate and help detect the possible onset of a greenhouse effect. It is also projected that dual-frequency observations will be used to trace the flow of energy across earth systems through detection of ionospheric gravity waves, and to map the structure of the ionosphere by computer tomography.
The greenhouse effect hypothesis is discussed. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere on global temperature changes are analyzed. The problems with models currently used to predict climatic changes are examined.
Results from a one-dimensional radiative-convective equilibrium model (similar to that of Lacis et al., 1981) of surface-temperature changes induced by changes in the vertical distribution of O3 in the atmosphere are parameterized and applied to measurement data for the northern midlatitudes during the 1970s. The construction of the model is outlined, and the results are presented in tables and graphs and discussed in detail. It is found that decreases in O3 in the lower stratosphere in the 1970s caused atmospheric cooling greater than that due to CO2 (thus possibly obscuring the CO2 greenhouse effect) and surface cooling which outweighed the warming effect of increased O3 in the troposphere. The net surface cooling is shown to be equal to about half of the estimated CO2 warming effect for the period.
Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.
Topics discussed at the March 1990 American Geophysical Union's Conference on biomass burning which was attended by more than 175 participants representing 19 countries are presented. Conference highlights include discussion of remote sensing data concerning biomass burning (BB), gaseous and particle emissions resulting from BB in the tropics, BB in temperate and boreal ecosystems, the historic and prehistoric perspectives on BB, BB and global budgets for carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen, and the BB and the greenhouse effect. Global estimates of annual amounts of biomass burning and of the resulting release of carbon to the atmosphere and the mean gaseous emission ratios for fires in wetlands, chaparral, and boreal ecosystems are given. An overview is presented of some conference discussions including global burning from 1850-1980, the global impact of biomass burning, the great Chinese/Soviet fire of 1987, and burning and biogenic emissions.
It has recently been suggested that GCMs used to evaluate climate change overestimate the greenhouse effect due to increased concentrations of trace gases in the atmosphere. Here, new satellite-generated water vapor data are used to compare summer and winter moisture values in regions of the middle and upper troposphere that have previously been difficult to observe with confidence. It is found that, as the hemispheres warm, increased convection leads to increased water vapor above 500 mbar in approximate quantitative agreement with results from current climate models. The same conclusion is reached by comparing the tropical western and eastern Pacific regions. Thus, water vapor feedback is not overestimated in models and should amplify the climate response to increased trace-gas concentrations.
The monitoring from space of such processes as the greenhouse effect and depletion of the ozone layer is discussed, as well as possibilities for active intervention in them, using space systems. Possibilities include the use of the Solar Power Satellite to reduce dependence on the burning of fossil fuels, dispersal of materials to neutralize chemicals responsible for ozone depletion, and measures to reduce the impact of local disasters, both natural and man-made.
An evaluation is undertaken of the current understanding of factors shaping the current climates of Venus, Mars, and the earth, in conjunction with the ways in which these planetary climates may have been different in the past. Attention is given to modeling approaches of various levels of sophistication which both characterize current climates and elucidate prior climatic epochs; these are assessed in light of observational data in order to judge degrees of success thus far and formulate major remaining questions for future investigations. Venus is noted to offer excellent opportunities for modeling the greenhouse effect.
The optical constants of four polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules (benzene, pyrene, pentacene, and coronene) are determined from their measured laboratory absorption spectra. The Planck mean of the radiation pressure cross section is computed for each molecule and for amorphous carbon (AC) grains, and semiempirically estimated for large PAH molecules up to 400 carbon atoms. Assuming that PAHs are present in carbon-rich stellar outflows, the radiation pressure forces acting on them are calculated and compared with the radiation forces on AC particles. The results show that PAHs possess very different optical properties from AC grains. Small PAHs may experience an 'inverse greenhouse' effect in the inner part of the envelope, as they decouple from the gas close to the photosphere. The radiation pressure force on PAHs is always much less than the force at work on AC grains, and PAH molecules do not affect significantly the dynamics of the outflow.
One of the goals of NASA's Exobiology Research Program is to determine whether life exists today on Mars (unlikely) or whether it might have existed there at some time in the past (more likely). Speculation about extinct life is driven by the observation of channels on the Martian surface, thought to indicate the past presence of liquid water and, hence, the existence of a warmer climate. Current thinking suggests that such a climate could have been maintained if early Mars had a dense CO2 atmosphere with a surface pressure of 1 to 5 bars. One of the phenomena that Martian climate modelers have not looked at very carefully is the process of CO2 condensation. Reexamination of some of my own calculations indicates that condensation should occur at high altitudes in some high-CO2, Martian atmospheres, particularly those in which the solar constant is set to its initial main sequence value (about 70 percent of present. CO2 condensation should affect the surface temperature in two ways: (1) if it occurs in the convective lower atmosphere, condensation will reduce the magnitude of the greenhouse effect by decreasing the lapse rate; and (2) condensation at any altitude will produce clouds, which can either warm or cool the climate depending on their altitude and optical depth. Preliminary calculations with a 1-D, radiative-convective climate model indicate that the lapse rate change is substantial for low solar luminosity models. Other aspects of this study are discussed.
The interaction of three physical processes will determine the stability of the Martian polar caps as the surface pressure increases: the greenhouse effect, atmospheric heat transport, and the change in the CO2 frost point temperature. The contribution of each is readily determined in the Mars general circulation model (GCM). Therefore, we have initiated experiments with the GCM to determine how these processes interact, and how the atmosphere-polar cap system responds to increasing surface pressure. The experiments are carried out for northern winter solstice and generally assume the atmosphere to be free of dust. Each experiment starts from resting isothermal conditions and runs for 50 Mars days. Mars' current orbital parameters are used. The experiments are for surface pressures of 120, 480, and 960 mb, which represent 16, 64, and 128 times the current value. To date we have analyzed the 120 mb experiment and the results indicate the contrary to the simpler models, the polar caps actually advance instead of retreat. Other aspects of this investigation are presented.
A model for the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle of an early, wet Mars is under development. The results of this study will be used to constrain models of the geochemical history of Mars and the likely mineralogy of its present surface. Although Mars today is a cold, dry planet, it may once have been much warmer and wetter. Values of total outgassed CO2 from several to about 10 bars are consistent with present knowledge (Pollack et al. 1987), and this amount of CO2 implies an amount of water outgassed at least equal to an equivalent depth of 500-1000 meters (Carr 1986). Pollack et al. (1987), in addition, estimate that a thick CO2 atmosphere may have existed for an extended period of time, perhaps as long as a billion years. The greenhouse effect of such an atmosphere would permit the presence of liquid water on the surface, most likely in the form of a shallow sea in the lowest regions of the planet, such as the northern plains (Schaefer 1990). The treatment of geochemical cycles as complex kinetic chemical reactions has been undertaken for terrestrial systems in recent years with much success (Lasaga 1980, 1981; Berner et al. 1983; Lasaga et al. 1985). Although the Martian system is vastly less well understood, and hence less well-constrained, it is also a much simpler system, due to the lack of biogenic reactions that make the terrestrial system so complex. It should be possible, therefore, to use the same techniques to model the Martian system as have been used for terrestrial systems, and to produce useful results. A diagram of the carbonate-silicate cycle for Mars (simplified from the terrestrial system) is given.
The contribution of various factors to the thermal structure of Titan's past and present atmosphere are discussed. A one dimensional model of Titan's thermal structure is summarized. The greenhouse effect of Titan's atmosphere, caused primarily by pressure induced opacity of N2, CH4, and H2, is discussed together with the antigreenhouse effect dominated by the haze which absorbs incident sunlight. The implications for the atmosphere of the presence of an ocean on Titan are also discussed.
The investigation of the Neptunian satellite Triton by the Voyager 2 is described with interpretations of the object's nature and composition. The orbit, seasonal cycle, and southern-hemisphere solstice are described, and the composition of the satellite is discussed. Triton's mass and radius are known, and the objects is made up of about 70 percent rock and organics and 30 percent ice by mass. Triton's interior is warm and geologically active considering its distance from the sun, and large amounts of frozen methane and nitrogen are theorized to contribute to the object's high reflectivity. Also noted in the Voyager color images are creeping ice, cryogenic lava, and dark streaks on the south polar cap from nitrogen gas leaks driven by a type of greenhouse effect. Triton represents a class of satellite that has not been observed previously: a moon-sized body in a retrograde inclined orbit from the class of objects that coalesced to form Neptune.
The current status of the reconstruction of major biomass fire events at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary is discussed. Attention is given to the sources of charcoal and soot, the identification of biomass and fossil carbon, and such ignition-related problems as delated fires, high atmospheric O2 content, ignition mechanisms, and the greenhouse-effect consequences of fire on the scale envisioned. Consequences of these factors for species extinction patterns are noted.