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NASA NTRS2009

Monitoring Exchange of CO2 - A KISS Workshop Report 2009

The problem and context: Can top-down estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes resolve the anthropogenic emissions of China, India, the United States, and the European Union with an accuracy of +/-10% or better?The workshop "Monitoring Exchange of Carbon Dioxide" was convened at the Keck Institute for Space Studies in Pasadena, California in February 2010 to address this question. The Workshop brought together an international, interdisciplinary group of 24 experts in carbon cycle science, remote sensing, emissions inventory estimation, and inverse modeling. The participants reviewed the potential of space-based and sub-orbital observational and modeling approaches to monitor anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the presence of much larger natural fluxes from the exchange of CO2 between the land, atmosphere, and ocean. This particular challenge was motivated in part by the NRC Report "Verifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions" [Pacala et al., 2010]. This workshop report includes several recommendations for improvements to observing strategies and modeling frameworks for optimal and cost-effective monitoring of carbon exchange

Greenhouse Gas Emissions↗

DOE OSTI2023

Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models

Arid and semi-arid regions of the world are particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gas–driven hydroclimate change. Climate models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society in these regions must adapt to, but here, we present a concerning discrepancy between observed and model-based historical hydroclimate trends. Over the arid/semi-arid regions of the world, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric water vapor, on average, over the last four decades, in association with the increased water vapor–holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. In observations, this increase in atmospheric water vapor has not happened, suggesting that the availability of moisture to satisfy the increased atmospheric demand is lower in reality than in models in arid/semi-arid regions. This discrepancy is most clear in locations that are arid/semi-arid year round, but it is also apparent in more humid regions during the most arid months of the year. Here, it indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities which could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, including fire hazard, moving forward.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The LHS 1678 System: Two Small Planets and a Likely Brown Dwarf Orbiting a Nearby M Dwarf in Unconventional Circumstances

We present the LHS 1678 (TOI-696) exoplanet system: two nearly Earth-sized transiting planets detected by TESS and a likely brown dwarf orbiting a bright M2 dwarf at 19.9 pc. The ultra-short-period LHS 1678 b (0.70 Earth radii, 0.9-day orbit) is a captivating target for emission spectroscopy observations with the JWST. LHS 1678 c (0.98 Earth radii, 3.7- day orbit) is in the Venus-zone and may be Venus density: a promising target for greenhouse effect studies. Both planets are favorable targets for EPRV mass measurements and for JWST transmission spectroscopy observations to study their atmospheres. The substellar companion, detected via CTIO/SMARTS 0.9m astrometry, is on a decades-long orbit and may someday eclipse the host star, revealing a rare system architecture in which more and less massive objects orbit in the same plane. There is also a candidate third planet detected in TESS multi-cycle data in near 4:3 resonance with LHS 1678 c. The host star is associated with an observed gap in the HR diagram tied to a change in M dwarf energy transport mechanisms. The effect of the associated stellar astrophysics on exoplanet evolution is currently unknown. In aggregate, LHS 1678 an exciting playground for comparative exoplanet science and understanding the formation and evolution of small, short-period exoplanets orbiting low-mass stars.

Michele L Silverstein↗

NASA NTRS2023

Observational Evidence of Strong Forcing from Aerosol Effect on Low Cloud Coverage

Aerosols cool Earth’s climate indirectly by increasing low cloud brightness and their coverage (Cf), constituting the aerosol indirect forcing (AIF). The forcing partially offsets the greenhouse warming and positively correlates with the climate sensitivity. However, it remains highly uncertain. Here, we show direct observational evidence for strong forcing from Cf adjustment to increased aerosols and weak forcing from cloud liquid water path adjustment. We estimate that the Cf adjustment drives between 52% and 300% of additional forcing to the Twomey effect over the ocean and a total AIF of −1.1 ± 0.8 W m -2 . The Cf adjustment follows a power law as a function of background cloud droplet number concentration, N d . It thus depends on time and location and is stronger when N d is low. Cf only increases substantially when background clouds start to drizzle, suggesting a role for aerosol-precipitation interactions. Our findings highlight the Cf adjustment as the key process for reducing the uncertainty of AIF and thus future climate projections.

Tianle Yuan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Driven Sensitivity Analysis of E3SM Land Model Parameters for Wetland Methane Emissions

Methane (CH 4 ) is globally the second most critical greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, contributing to 16%–25% of the observed atmospheric warming. Wetlands are the primary natural source of methane emissions globally. However, wetland methane emission estimates from biogeochemistry models contain considerable uncertainty. One of the main sources of this uncertainty arises from the numerous uncertain model parameters within various physical, biological, and chemical processes that influence methane production, oxidation, and transport. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) can help identify critical parameters for methane emission and achieve reduced biases and uncertainties in future projections. This study performs SA for 19 selected parameters responsible for critical biogeochemical processes in the methane module of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). The impact of these parameters on various CH 4 fluxes is examined at 14 FLUXNET- CH 4 sites with diverse vegetation types. Given the extensive number of model simulations needed for global variance-based SA, we employ a machine learning (ML) algorithm to emulate the complex behavior of ELM methane biogeochemistry. We found that parameters linked to CH 4 production and diffusion generally present the highest sensitivities despite apparent seasonal variation. Comparing simulated emissions from perturbed parameter sets against FLUXNET-CH 4 observations revealed that better performances can be achieved at each site compared to the default parameter values. This presents a scope for further improving simulated emissions using parameter calibration with advanced optimization techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Subsurface energy storage and transport for solar-powered geysers on Triton

The location of active geyser-like eruptions and related features close to the current subsolar latitude on Triton suggests a solar energy source for these phenomena. Solid-state greenhouse calculations have shown that sunlight can generate substantially elevated subsurface temperatures. A variety of models for the storage of solar energy in a subgreenhouse layer and for the supply of gas and energy to a geyser are examined. 'Leaky greenhouse' models with only vertical gas transport are inconsistent with the observed upper limit on geyser radius of about 1.5 km. However, lateral transport of energy by gas flow in a porous N2 layer with a block size on the order of a meter can supply the required amount of gas to a source region about 1 km in radius. The decline of gas output to steady state may occur over a period comparable with the inferred active geyser lifetime of 5 earth years. The required subsurface permeability may be maintained by thermal fracturing of the residual N2 polar cap. A lower limit on geyser source radius of about 50 to 100 m predicted by a theory of negatively buoyant jets is not readily attained.

Kirk, Randolph L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Miniaturized Laser Heterodyne Radiometer for a Global Ground-Based Column Carbon Monitoring Network

We present progress in the development of a passive, miniaturized Laser Heterodyne Radiometer (mini-LHR) that will measure key greenhouse gases (C02, CH4, CO) in the atmospheric column as well as their respective altitude profiles, and O2 for a measure of atmospheric pressure. Laser heterodyne radiometry is a spectroscopic method that borrows from radio receiver technology. In this technique, a weak incoming signal containing information of interest is mixed with a stronger signal (local oscillator) at a nearby frequency. In this case, the weak signal is sunlight that has undergone absorption by a trace gas of interest and the local oscillator is a distributive feedback (DFB) laser that is tuned to a wavelength near the absorption feature of the trace gas. Mixing the sunlight with the laser light, in a fast photoreceiver, results in a beat signal in the RF. The amplitude of the beat signal tracks the concentration of the trace gas in the atmospheric column. The mini-LHR operates in tandem with AERONET, a global network of more than 450 aerosol sensing instruments. This partnership simplifies the instrument design and provides an established global network into which the mini-LHR can rapidly expand. This network offers coverage in key arctic regions (not covered by OCO-2) where accelerated warming due to the release of CO2 and CH4 from thawing tundra and permafrost is a concern as well as an uninterrupted data record that will both bridge gaps in data sets and offer validation for key flight missions such as OCO-2, OCO-3, and ASCENDS. Currently, the only ground global network that routinely measures multiple greenhouse gases in the atmospheric column is TCCON (Total Column Carbon Observing Network) with 18 operational sites worldwide and two in the US. Cost and size of TCCON installations will limit the potential for expansion, We offer a low-cost $30Klunit) solution to supplement these measurements with the added benefit of an established aerosol optical depth measurement. Aerosols induce a radiative effect that is an important modulator of regional carbon cycles. Changes in the diffuse radiative flux fraction (DRF) due to aerosol loading have the potential to alter the terrestrial carbon exchange.

Wilson, Emily L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Precipitation Response to Regional Radiative Forcing

Precipitation shifts can have large impacts on human society and ecosystems. Many aspects of how inhomogeneous radiative forcings influence precipitation remain unclear, however. Here we investigate regional precipitation responses to various forcings imposed in different latitude bands in a climate model. We find that several regions show strong, significant responses to most forcings, but that the magnitude and even the sign depends upon the forcing location and type. Aerosol and ozone forcings typically induce larger responses than equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, and the influence of remote forcings often outweighs that of local forcings. Consistent with this, ozone and especially aerosols contribute greatly to precipitation changes over the Sahel and South and East Asia in historical simulations, and inclusion of aerosols greatly increases the agreement with observed trends in these areas, which cannot be attributed to either greenhouse gases or natural forcings. Estimates of precipitation responses derived from multiplying our Regional Precipitation Potentials (RPP; the response per unit forcing relationships) by historical forcings typically capture the actual response in full transient climate simulations fairly well, suggesting that these relationships may provide useful metrics. The strong sensitivity to aerosol and ozone forcing suggests that although some air quality improvements may unmask greenhouse gas-induced warming, they have large benefits for reducing regional disruption of the hydrologic cycle.

Shindell, D. T.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Investigating Sources of Variability and Error in Simulations of Carbon Dioxide in an Urban Region

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimation methods that use atmospheric trace gas observations, including inverse modeling techniques, perform better when carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are more accurately transported and dispersed in the atmosphere by a numerical model. In urban areas, transport and dispersion is particularly difficult to simulate using current mesoscale meteorological models due, in part, to added complexity from surface heterogeneity and fine spatial/temporal scales. It is generally assumed that the errors in GHG estimation methods in urban areas are dominated by errors in transport and dispersion. Other significant errors include, but are not limited to, those from assumed emissions magnitude and spatial distribution. To assess the predictability of simulated trace gas mole fractions in urban observing systems using a numerical weather prediction model, we employ an Eulerian model that combines traditional meteorological variables with multiple passive tracers of atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic inventories and a biospheric model. The predictability of the Eulerian model is assessed by comparing simulated atmospheric CO2 mole fractions to observations from four in situ tower sites (three urban and one rural) in the Washington DC/Baltimore, MD area for February 2016. Four different gridded fossil fuel emissions inventories along with a biospheric flux model are used to create an ensemble of simulated atmospheric CO2 observations within the model. These ensembles help to evaluate whether the modeled observations are impacted more by the underlying emissions or transport. The spread of modeled observations using the four emission fields indicates the model's ability to distinguish between the different inventories under various meteorological conditions. Overall, the Eulerian model performs well; simulated and observed average CO2 mole fractions agree within 1% when averaged at the three urban sites across the month. However, there can be differences greater than 10% at any given hour, which are attributed to complex meteorological conditions rather than differences in the inventories themselves. On average, the mean absolute error of the simulated compared to actual observations is generally twice as large as the standard deviation of the modeled mole fractions across the four emission inventories. This result supports the assumption, in urban domains, that the predicted mole fraction error relative to observations is dominated by errors in model meteorology rather than errors in the underlying fluxes in winter months. As such, minimizing errors associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion may help improve the performance of GHG estimation models more so than improving flux priors in the winter months. We also find that the errors associated with atmospheric transport in urban domains are not restricted to certain times of day. This suggests that atmospheric inversions should use CO2 observations that have been filtered using meteorological observations rather than assuming that meteorological modeling is most accurate at certain times of day (such as using only mid-afternoon observations).

CO2↗

NASA NTRS2019

Simulated Phase-dependent Spectra of Terrestrial Aquaplanets in M Dwarf Systems

Orbital phase-dependent variations in thermal emission and reflected stellar energy spectra can provide meaningful constraints on the climate states of terrestrial extrasolar planets orbiting M dwarf stars. Spatial distributions of water vapor, clouds, and surface ice are controlled by climate. In turn, water, in each of its thermodynamic phases, imposes significant modulations to thermal and reflected planetary spectra. Here we explore these characteristic spectral signals, based on 3D climate simulations of Earth-sized aquaplanets orbiting M dwarf stars near the habitable zone. By using 3D models, we can self-consistently predict surface temperatures and the location ofwater vapor, clouds, and surface ice in the climate system. Habitable zone planets in M dwarf systems are expected to be in synchronous rotation with their host star and thus present distinct differences in emitted and reflected energy fluxes depending on the observed hemisphere. Here we illustrate that icy, temperate, and incipient runaway greenhouse climate states exhibit phase-dependent spectral signals that enable their characterization.

Wolf, E. T.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

WIS and WIGOS Metadata as the Foundation for a Sustainable Framework for Global Greenhouse Gas Watch Data Exchange

Metadata (data about data) is a critical component of data discovery, description, evaluation, documentation, and preservation. Developing and propagating metadata standards has been a longstanding area of activity in WMO and beyond. The WIS2 and WIGOS metadata models are being actively developed and maintained by dedicated task teams, established under the WMO Expert Team on Metadata. The metadata representations and vocabularies are governed by well-established processes within WMO. These standards are being used in a number of metadata/data exchange activities (e.g., WMO Information System 2.0 (WIS2), WIGOS (WMDR), Climate Data Management Systems (CMDS), etc.). It should also be noted that the application of the WIS2 and WIGOS standards fully support the WMO Unified Data Policy and open data policy as well as greatly enhance the value of observations by fostering data F.A.I.R.ness. Furthermore, the WMO metadata standards can serve as the foundation for a framework that will facilitate metadata mapping between the existing schemas used in well-established data centres, e.g., WMO WDCGG (World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases) and NOAA ObsPack (Observation Package Data Products) and to automate metadata exchange between data centres as well as with WMO. These activities will play a central role in integrating measurements sponsored by various member countries and organizations to provide a more comprehensive characterization of the temporal and spatial distribution of the greenhouse gases. At the same time, this metadata exchange can lead to member countries and partner organizations improving their current metadata collection process for data discoverability, interoperability, and (re)usability. This presentation will describe metadata activities in the context of WIS2 and WIGOS and how they apply to GGGW data integration via metadata mapping and exchange.

Gao Chen↗

NASA NTRS2017

FOREWORD: Satellite Remote Sensing Beyond 2015

Satellite remote sensing has progressed tremendously since the first Landsat was launched on June 23, 1972. Since the 1970s, satellite remote sensing and associated airborne and in situ measurements have resulted in vital and indispensable observations for understanding our planet through time. These observations have also led to dramatic improvements in numerical simulation models of the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean systems at increasing accuracies and predictive capability. The same observations document the Earth's climate and are driving the consensus that Homo sapiens is changing our climate through greenhouse gas emissions. These accomplishments are the combined work of many scientists from many countries and a dedicated cadre of engineers who build the instruments and satellites that collect Earth observation data from satellites, all working toward the goal of improving our understanding of the Earth. This edition of the Remote Sensing Handbook (Vol. I, II, and III) is a compendium of information for many research areas of our Planet that have contributed to our substantial progress since the 1970s. Remote sensing community is now using multiple sources of satellite and in situ data to advance our studies, what ever they might be. In the following paragraphs, I will illustrate how valuable and pivotal role satellite remote sensing has played in climate system study over last five decades, The Chapters in the Remote Sensing Handbook (Vol. I, II, and III) provides many other specific studies on land, water, and other applications using EO data of last five decades, The Landsat system of Earth-observing satellites has led the way in pioneering sustained observations of our planet. From 1972 to the present, at least one and sometimes two Landsat satellites have been in operation. Starting with the launch of the first NOAA-NASA Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites NOAA-6 in 1978, improved imaging of land, clouds, and oceans and atmospheric soundings of temperature were accomplished. The NOAA system of polar-orbiting meteorological satellites has continued uninterrupted since that time, providing vital observations for numerical weather prediction. These same satellites are also responsible for the remarkable records of sea surface temperature and land vegetation index from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) that now span more than 33 years, although no one anticipated these valuable climate records from this instrument before the launch of NOAA-7 in 1981. The success of data from the AVHRR led to the design of the MODIS instruments on NASA's Earth Observing System of satellite platforms that improved substantially upon the AVHRR. The first of the EOS platforms, Terra, was launched in 2000 and the second of these platforms, Aqua, was launched in 2002.

Tucker, Compton J.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Greenhouse models of Venus' high surface temperature, as constrained by Pioneer Venus measurements

Recent measurements conducted from the Pioneer Venus probes and orbiter have provided a significantly improved definition of the solar net flux profile, the gaseous composition, temperature structure, and cloud properties of Venus' lower atmosphere. Using these data, we have carried out a series of one-dimensional radiative-convective equilibrium calculations to determine the viability of the greenhouse model of Venus' high surface temperature and to assess the chief contributors to the greenhouse effect. New sources of infrared opacity include the permitted transitions of SO2, CO, and HCl as well as opacity due to several pressure-induced transitions of CO2. We find that the observed surface temperature and lapse rate structure of the lower atmosphere can be reproduced quite closely with a greenhouse model that contains the water vapor abundance reported by the Venera spectrophotometer experiment. Thus the greenhouse effect can account for essentially all of Venus' high surface temperature. The prime sources of infrared opacity are, in order of importance, CO2, H2O, cloud particles, and SO2, with CO and HCl playing very minor roles.

Pollack, J. B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming

Significance Climate models have, on average, simulated substantially more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite data, with few simulations matching observations. It has been suggested that this discrepancy arises because climate models are overly sensitive to greenhouse gas increases. Tropical tropospheric temperature trends from a large ensemble of simulations performed with a single climate model span a wide range that is solely due to natural climate variability. A subset of these simulations have warming rates in accord with satellite observations. Simulations with diminished tropical tropospheric warming due to climate variability exhibit characteristic patterns of surface warming that are similar to the observed record. Our results indicate that multidecadal variability can explain current model–observational differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Global Distribution and Trends of Tropospheric Ozone: An Observation-Based Review

Tropospheric ozone plays a major role in Earth's atmospheric chemistry processes and also acts as an air pollutant and greenhouse gas. Due to its short lifetime, and dependence on sunlight and precursor emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources, tropospheric ozone's abundance is highly variable in space and time on seasonal, interannual and decadal time-scales. Recent, and sometimes rapid, changes in observed ozone mixing ratios and ozone precursor emissions inspired us to produce this up-to-date overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. Much of the text is a synthesis of in situ and remotely sensed ozone observations reported in the peer-reviewed literature, but we also include some new and extended analyses using well-known and referenced datasets to draw connections between ozone trends and distributions in different regions of the world. In addition, we provide a brief evaluation of the accuracy of rural or remote surface ozone trends calculated by three state-of-the-science chemistry-climate models, the tools used by scientists to fill the gaps in our knowledge of global tropospheric ozone distribution and trends.

Mixing ratios↗

DOE OSTI2020

Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate

Observations and model simulations show enhanced warming in the Arctic under increasing greenhouse gases, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification (AA), that is likely caused by sea-ice loss. AA reduces meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation, thus mid-latitude weather and climate changes have been attributed to AA, often on the basis of regression analysis and atmospheric simulations. However, other modelling studies show only a weak link. This inconsistency may result from deficiencies in separating the effects of AA from those of natural variability or background warming. In this work, using coupled model simulations with and without AA, we show that cold-season precipitation, snowfall and circulation changes over northern mid-latitudes come mostly from background warming. AA and sea-ice loss increase precipitation and snowfall above ~60° N and reduce meridional temperature gradients above ~45° N in the lower–mid troposphere. However, minimal impact on the mean climate is seen below ~60° N, with weak reduction in zonal wind over 50°–70° N and 150–700 hPa, mainly over the North Atlantic and northern central Asia. These results suggest that the climatic impacts of AA are probably small outside the high latitudes, thus caution is needed in attributing mid-latitude changes to AA and sea-ice loss on the basis of statistical analyses that cannot distinguish the impact of AA from other correlated changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest

Summary Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO 2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES‐HYDRO) to simulate the stand‐level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086–2100: SSP2‐45, SSP5‐85) and two CO 2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1–11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO 2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO 2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO 2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo‐tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Triton - Voyager's finale

The investigation of the Neptunian satellite Triton by the Voyager 2 is described with interpretations of the object's nature and composition. The orbit, seasonal cycle, and southern-hemisphere solstice are described, and the composition of the satellite is discussed. Triton's mass and radius are known, and the objects is made up of about 70 percent rock and organics and 30 percent ice by mass. Triton's interior is warm and geologically active considering its distance from the sun, and large amounts of frozen methane and nitrogen are theorized to contribute to the object's high reflectivity. Also noted in the Voyager color images are creeping ice, cryogenic lava, and dark streaks on the south polar cap from nitrogen gas leaks driven by a type of greenhouse effect. Triton represents a class of satellite that has not been observed previously: a moon-sized body in a retrograde inclined orbit from the class of objects that coalesced to form Neptune.

Brown, R. H.↗