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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable urban transformations based on integrated microgrid designs

The impacts of natural hazards on infrastructure, enhanced by climate change, are increasingly more severe emphasizing the necessity of resilient energy grids. Microgrids, tailored energy systems for specific neighbourhoods and districts, play a pivotal role in sustaining energy supply during main grid outages. These solutions not only mitigate economic losses and well-being disruptions against escalating hazards but also enhance city resilience in alignment with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11. However, disregarding socioeconomic factors in defining microgrid boundaries risks perpetuating inequalities and impeding progress towards other SDG 11 targets, including fair democratic participation. Our approach integrates social and technical indicators to bolster urban microgrid planning. Through a case study in a US county, we illustrate how integrated microgrid planning effectively intertwines urban resilience, well-being and equity while promoting sustainable development. This study underscores the importance of integrated microgrid planning for sustainable and resilient urban transformation amid environmental and societal challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bounds of linear time‐varying systems with applications to quantify model gap of synchronous generators

Abstract Linear time‐varying (LTV) systems play a key role in many engineering problems, for example, trajectory sensitivity analysis of power systems. Because LTV systems do not generally have closed‐form solutions, estimates of their bounds are crucial to their analysis. In this paper, bounds for LTV systems with known inputs and unknown but bounded inputs are obtained via Grönwall's inequality. The estimated bounds are then used to quantify the gap between synchronous generators and their models in different scenarios through simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Equity‐aware power distribution system restoration

Abstract The efficient, reliable, and resilient supply of electricity has become essential for social and economic well‐being of the modern society. However, more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events has exposed inequity in the planning and operation practices of power distribution systems, evidenced in higher vulnerability and longer power interruptions for some parts of the grid as compared to others. This paper proposes an equity‐aware power distribution system restoration model in an effort to ensure a more equitable yet resilient power distribution operation after outages. To this end, the proposed equity‐aware distribution system restoration model balances the efficiency of the restoration operation and the equitable allocation of distributed energy resources among affected customers after an outage, while prioritizing the critical infrastructure (e.g. hospitals). The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework to ensure a more equitable restoration process as measured by the proposed fairness and restoration performance indices.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Approximate bounds and temperature dependence of adiabatic connection integrands for the uniform electron gas

Thermal density functional theory is commonly used in simulations of warm dense matter, a highly energetic phase characterized by substantial thermal effects and by correlated electrons demanding quantum mechanical treatment. Methods that account for temperature dependence, such as Mermin–Kohn–Sham finite-temperature density functional theory and free energy density functional theory, are now employed with more regularity and available in many standard code packages. However, approximations from zero-temperature density functional theory are still often used in temperature-dependent simulations using thermally weighted electronic densities as an input to exchange–correlation functional approximations, a practice known to miss temperature-dependent effects in the exchange–correlation free energy of these systems. Here, in this work, the temperature-dependent adiabatic connection is demonstrated and analyzed using a well-known parameterization of the uniform electron gas free energy. Useful tools based on this formalism for analyzing and constraining approximations of the exchange–correlation at zero temperature are leveraged for the finite-temperature case. Inspired by the Lieb–Oxford inequality, which provides a lower bound for the ground-state exchange–correlation energy, bounds for the exchange–correlation at finite temperatures are approximated for various degrees of electronic correlation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic exciton-scattering theory of optical line shapes: Renormalized many-body contributions

Spectral line shapes provide a window into the local environment coupled to a quantum transition in the condensed phase. In this paper, we build upon a stochastic model to account for non-stationary background processes produced by broad-band pulsed laser stimulation, as distinguished from those for stationary phonon bath. In particular, we consider the contribution of pair-fluctuations arising from the full bosonic many-body Hamiltonian within a mean-field approximation, treating the coupling to the system as a stochastic noise term. Herein, using the Itô transformation, we consider two limiting cases for our model, which lead to a connection between the observed spectral fluctuations and the spectral density of the environment. In the first case, we consider a Brownian environment and show that this produces spectral dynamics that relax to form dressed excitonic states and recover an Anderson–Kubo-like form for the spectral correlations. In the second case, we assume that the spectrum is Anderson–Kubo like and invert to determine the corresponding background. Using the Jensen inequality, we obtain an upper limit for the spectral density for the background. The results presented here provide the technical tools for applying the stochastic model to a broad range of problems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Monotonic multi-state quantum f -divergences

We use the Tomita–Takesaki modular theory and the Kubo–Ando operator mean to write down a large class of multi-state quantum f-divergences and prove that they satisfy the data processing inequality. For two states, this class includes the (α, z)-Rényi divergences, the f-divergences of Petz, and the Rényi Belavkin-Staszewski relative entropy as special cases. The method used is the interpolation theory of non-commutative Lωp spaces, and the result applies to general von Neumann algebras, including the local algebra of quantum field theory. We conjecture that these multi-state Rényi divergences have operational interpretations in terms of the optimal error probabilities in asymmetric multi-state quantum state discrimination.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A generalization of the shock invariant relationship

Shock invariant relationship, which was conceived for inert shock waves to derive the 4th power relationship between shock pressure and maximum strain rate, is generalized for reactive shock waves such as Chapman–Jouget detonation and shock-induced vaporization. The generalization, based on the first-order reaction models, is a power function relationship between overall dissipated energy (Δe dis ) and reaction time Δτ such that Δe dis Δτ 1/α = constant, where the power coefficient α is found to be in the range of 2/3–4. Experimental data, though scarce, are consistent with the generalization. Implication of the generalization for inert shocks is also considered and suggests a broad range of the 4th power coefficient including an inequality equation that constrains the shock and particle velocity relationship.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Equity for women and underrepresented minorities in STEM: Graduate experiences and career plans in chemistry

Significance On June 10, 2020, as part of the Black Lives Matter movement, scientists in the United States and throughout the world paused to consider how systematic racism affects the scientific enterprise. As a result, many academic departments are now assessing policies and practices that may contribute to this situation. This paper provides evidence of the nature of inequities related to race–ethnicity and gender in graduate school experiences and career plans of PhD students in one science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) discipline, chemistry. The results can help promote understanding of the problems and guide efforts toward equity within STEM and, potentially, other academic areas. In turn, these changes can strengthen the scientific enterprise and the well-being of society.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parallel interior-point solver for block-structured nonlinear programs on SIMD/GPU architectures

Here, we investigate how to port the standard interior-point method to new exascale architectures for block-structured nonlinear programs with state equations. Computationally, we decompose the interior-point algorithm into two successive operations: the evaluation of the derivatives and the solution of the associated Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) linear system. Our method accelerates both operations using two levels of parallelism. First, we distribute the computations on multiple processes using coarse parallelism. Second, each process uses SIMD/GPU accelerators locally to accelerate the operations using fine-grained parallelism. The KKT system is reduced by eliminating the inequalities and the state variables from the corresponding equations. We demonstrate our method's capability on the supercomputer Polaris, a testbed for the future exascale Aurora system. Each node is equipped with four GPUs, a setup amenable to our two-level approach. Our experiments on the stochastic optimal power flow problem show that the reduction method is 50x faster than the sparse linear solver HSL MA57 running in serial on the CPU, and 6x faster than Pardiso running in parallel on CPU on the same number of processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings worldwide

Formulation of targets and establishing which factors in different contexts will achieve these targets are critical to successful decarbonization of the building sector. To contribute to this, we have performed an evidence map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings (ZLECB) worldwide, including a list and classification of documents in an on-line geographical map, a description of gaps, and a narrative review of the knowledge gluts. We have retrieved 1219 scientific documents from Scopus, extracted metadata from 274 documents, and identified 117 roadmaps, policies or plans from 27 countries worldwide. We find that there is a coverage bias towards more developed regions. The identified scientific studies are mostly recommendations to policy makers, different types of case studies, and demonstration projects. The geographical inequalities found in the coverage of the scientific literature are even more extreme in the coverage of the roadmaps. These underexplored world regions represent an area for further investigation and increased research/policy attention. Our review of the more substantial amount of literature and roadmaps for developed regions shows differences in target metrics and enforcement mechanisms but that all regions dedicate some efforts at national and local levels. Roadmaps generally focus more on new and public buildings than existing buildings, despite the fact that the latter are naturally larger in number and total floor area, and perform less energy efficiently. A combination of efficiency, technical upgrades, and renewable generation is generally proposed in the roadmaps, with behavioral measures only reflected in the use of information and communication technologies, and minimal focus being placed on lifecycle perspectives. We conclude that insufficient progress is being made in the implementation of ZLECB. More work is needed to couple the existing climate goals, with realistic, enforceable policies to make the carbon savings a reality for different contexts and stakeholders worldwide.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Non-parametric projections of national income distribution consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Understanding and projecting income distributions within countries and regions is important to understanding consumption trends and the distributional consequences of climate impacts and responses. Several global, country-level projections of income distribution are available but most project only the Gini coefficient (a summary statistic of the distribution) or utilize the Gini along with the assumption of a lognormal distribution. We test the lognormal assumption and find that it typically underestimates income in the highest deciles and over-estimates it in others. We find that a new model based on two principal components of national time series data for income distribution provides a better fit to the data for all deciles, especially for the highest and lowest. We also construct a projection model in which the first principal component is driven by the Gini coefficient and the second captures deviations from this relationship. We use the model to project income distribution by decile for all countries for the five shared socioeconomic pathways. We find that inequality is consistently higher than projections based on the Gini and the lognormal functional form, with some countries reaching ratios of the highest to lowest income deciles that are almost three times their value using the lognormal assumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?

Abstract Tropical cyclones are the leading cause of major power outages in the U.S., and their effects can be devastating for communities. However, few studies have holistically examined the degree to which socio-economic variables can explain spatial variations in disruptions and reveal potential inequities thereof. Here, we apply machine learning techniques to analyze 20 tropical cyclones and predict county-level outage duration and percentage of customers losing power using a comprehensive set of weather, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Our models are able to accurately predict these outage response variables, but after controlling for the effects of weather conditions and environmental factors in the models, we find the effects of socio-economic variables to be largely immaterial. However, county-level data could be overlooking effects of socio-economic disparities taking place at more granular spatial scales, and we must remain aware of the fact that when faced with similar outage events, socio-economically vulnerable communities will still find it more difficult to cope with disruptions compared to less vulnerable ones.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Residential energy demand, emissions, and expenditures at regional and income-decile level for alternative futures

Income and its distribution profile are important determinants of residential energy demand and carry direct implications for human well-being and climate. We explore the sensitivity of residential energy systems to income growth and distribution across shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathways scenarios using a global, integrated, multisector dynamics model, Global Change Analysis Model, which tracks national/regional household energy services and fuel choice by income decile. Nation/region energy use patterns across deciles tend to converge over time with aggregate income growth, as higher-income consumers approach satiation levels in floorspace and energy services. However, in some regions, existing within-region inequalities in energy consumption persist over time due to slow income growth in lower income groups. Due to continued differences in fuel types, lower income groups will have higher exposure to household air pollution, despite lower contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that the share of income dedicated to energy is higher for lower deciles, with strong regional differences.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

The 𝑚=2 amplituhedron and the hypersimplex: Signs, clusters, tilings, Eulerian numbers

The hypersimplex Δ <#comment/> k + 1 , n \Delta _{k+1,n} is the image of the positive Grassmannian G r k + 1 , n ≥ <#comment/> 0 Gr^{\geq 0}_{k+1,n} under the moment map. It is a polytope of dimension n − <#comment/> 1 n-1 in R n \mathbb {R}^n . Meanwhile, the amplituhedron A n , k , 2 ( Z ) \mathcal {A}_{n,k,2}(Z) is the projection of the positive Grassmannian G r k , n ≥ <#comment/> 0 Gr^{\geq 0}_{k,n} into the Grassmannian G r k , k + 2 Gr_{k,k+2} under a map Z ~ <#comment/> \tilde {Z} induced by a positive matrix Z ∈ <#comment/> M a t n , k + 2 > 0 Z\in Mat_{n,k+2}^{>0} . Introduced in the context of scattering amplitudes , it is not a polytope, and has full dimension 2 k 2k inside G r k , k + 2 Gr_{k,k+2} . Nevertheless, there seem to be remarkable connections between these two objects via T-duality , as conjectured by Łukowski, Parisi, and Williams [Int. Math. Res. Not. (2023)]. In this paper we use ideas from oriented matroid theory, total positivity, and the geometry of the hypersimplex and positroid polytopes to obtain a deeper understanding of the amplituhedron. We show that the inequalities cutting out positroid polytopes —images of positroid cells of G r k + 1 , n ≥ <#comment/> 0 Gr^{\geq 0}_{k+1,n} under the moment map—translate into sign conditions characterizing the T-dual Grasstopes —images of positroid cells of G r k , n ≥ <#comment/> 0 Gr^{\geq 0}_{k,n} under Z ~ <#comment/> \tilde {Z} . Moreover, we subdivide the amplituhedron into chambers , just as the hypersimplex can be subdivided into simplices, with both chambers and simplices enumerated by the Eulerian numbers. We use these properties to prove the main conjecture of Łukowski, Parisi, and Williams [Int. Math. Res. Not. (2023)]: a collection of positroid polytopes is a tiling of the hypersimplex if and only if the collection of T-dual Grasstopes is a tiling of the amplituhedron A n , k , 2 ( Z ) \mathcal {A}_{n,k,2}(Z) for all Z Z . Moreover, we prove Arkani-Hamed–Thomas–Trnka’s conjectural sign-flip characterization of A n , k , 2 \mathcal {A}_{n,k,2} , and Łukowski–Parisi–Spradlin–Volovich’s conjectures on m = 2 m=2 cluster adjacency and on positroid tiles for A n , k , 2 \mathcal {A}_{n,k,2} (images of 2 k 2k -dimensional positroid cells which map injectively into A n , k , 2 \mathcal {A}_{n,k,2} ). Finally, we introduce new cluster structures in the amplituhedron.

Parisi, Matteo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade

Abstract International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios’ plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.

Ribeiro, Joana (ORCID:0000000237555785)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chris Freeman forging the evolution of evolutionary economics

Abstract Every Schumpeterian is an evolutionary economist in his or her own way. Chris Freeman, whose 1995 essay is published in this issue of ICC, favored a rare combination of the Cambridge tradition, a Marxian view of inequalities and Schumpeter’s fascination with innovation as the driving force of capitalism. The article summarizes and discusses this combination and how Freeman generated a challenging agenda for contemporary economics, namely in the context of long wave analysis, the theme for his last book.

Louçã, Francisco↗
DOE OSTI2020

Incubation Temperature Affects Duckling Body Size and Food Consumption Despite No Effect on Associated Feeding Behaviors

Synopsis Developmental conditions can have consequences for offspring fitness. For example, small changes (<1°C) in average avian incubation temperature have large effects on important post-hatch offspring phenotypes, including growth rate, thermoregulation, and behavior. Furthermore, average incubation temperatures differ among eggs within the same nest, to the extent (i.e., >1°C) that differences in offspring phenotypes within broods should result. A potential consequence of within-nest incubation temperature variation is inequality in behaviors that could cause differences in resource acquisition within broods. To investigate this, we incubated wood duck (Aix sponsa) eggs at one of two ecologically-relevant incubation temperatures (35°C or 36°C), formed mixed-incubation temperature broods after ducklings hatched, and conducted trials to measure duckling behaviors associated with acquisition of heat (one trial) or food (three trials). Contrary to our predictions, we found no effect of incubation temperature on duckling behaviors (e.g., time spent occupying heat source, frequency of feeding bouts). However, we found evidence that ducklings incubated at the higher temperature consumed more food during the 1-h feeding trials, and grew faster in body mass and structural size (culmen and tarsus) throughout the study, than those incubated at the lower temperature. Apparent food consumption during the trials was positively related to culmen length, suggesting that differences in food consumption may be driven by structural size. This could result in positive feedback, which would amplify size differences between offspring incubated at different temperatures. Thus, our study identifies incubation temperature as a mechanism by which fitness-related phenotypic differences can be generated and even amplified within avian broods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Human papillomavirus–associated anal squamous cell carcinoma: sociodemographic, geographic, and county-level economic trends in incidence rates—United States, 2001-2019

Abstract Background Incidence of anal squamous cell carcinoma is increasing, but vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) and removal of precancerous anal lesions could prevent new cases. The overall HPV-associated cancer incidence is reported to be higher in rural populations and in counties with lower economic status. We assessed these differences specifically for HPV-associated anal squamous cell carcinoma and described the geographic, county-level economic, and sociodemographic variations in incidence rates and trends. Methods We analyzed data from the US Cancer Statistics to assess age-standardized incidence rates of HPV-associated squamous cell carcinomas among adults aged 18 years and older from 2001 to 2019. We calculated rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals to examine differences in incidence rates. We also quantified changes in incidence rates over time using joinpoint regression. Results From 2001 to 2019, 72 421 new cases of HPV-associated anal squamous cell carcinoma were diagnosed among women (2.8 per 100 000) and 37 147 among men (1.7 per 100 000). Age-standardized incidence rates were higher in the South compared with other census regions and in counties ranked in the bottom 25% and 25%-75% economically than in the top 25%. The overall incidence rate increased in women but remained stable in men during 2009-2019. Incidence rates increased in adults aged 50 years and older but decreased among those aged 40-44 years from 2001 to 2019 in women and from 2007 to 2019 in men. Conclusions There were inequities in HPV-associated anal squamous cell carcinoma incidence by geographic and county-level economic characteristics. Failure to improve vaccine and treatment equity may widen existing disparities.

Oncology↗