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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11

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DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Photovoltaic Module Materials and Design on Module Deformation Under Load

Quasi-static structural finite-element models of an aluminum-framed crystalline silicon photovoltaic module and a glass-glass thin-film module were constructed and validated against experimental measurements of deflection under uniform pressure loading. Specific practices in the computational representation of module assembly were identified as influential to matching experimental deflection observations. Additionally, parametric analyses using Latin hypercube sampling were performed to propagate input uncertainties related to module materials, dimensions, and tolerances into uncertainties in simulated deflection. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the uncertainty quantification datasets using linear correlation coefficients and variance-based sensitivity indices to elucidate key parameters influencing module deformation. Results identified edge tape and adhesive material properties as being strongly correlated to module deflection, suggesting that optimization of these materials could yield module stiffness gains at par with the conventionally structural parameters, such as glass thickness. This exercise verifies the applicability of finite-element models for accurately predicting mechanical behavior of solar modules and demonstrates a workflow for model-based parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Finally, applications of this capability include the assessment of field environment loads, derivation of representative loading conditions for reduced-scale testing, and module design optimization, among others.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

R&D Towards High Gradient CW SRF Cavities

This talk will discuss Fermilab’s recent progress in the surface engineering of superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities geared toward producing simultaneously high quality factors and high accelerating gradients in cryomodules. We investigate possible microscopic mechanisms that drive improved performance by carrying out sequential RF tests on cavities subjected to low temperature baking. We compare performance evolution to observations made with material science techniques and find correlations with material parameters. We also discuss other key advancements that enable high gradient operation in cryomodules.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Earth System Model Improvement Pipeline via Uncertainty Attribution and Active Learning

Primary focal area: 2 (Predictive Modeling via AI): We develop methods to formally quantify uncertainties in Earth System models for the land-atmosphere coupled system. Science Challenge: Earth system models still have significant biases in historical predictions of the intensity and frequency of water cycling extremes (e.g., droughts and flood events), leading to low confidence in future projections. Uncertainties arise from incomplete understanding of land and atmospheric processes, and insufficient observational constraints on model parameters. Many observations, including those from key DOE investments such as ARM and AmeriFlux, are used to evaluate model performance but have not been used to formally quantify model uncertainty because of the expense of running ESM simulations. An efficient pipeline engaging cutting-edge machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods is needed to improve the predictive understanding of water cycle extremes in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Method for measurement of TRISO kernel and layer volumes by X-ray computed tomography

Layer dimensions are key parameters for as-fabricated tristructural-isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel as well as for post-irradiation examination of particle performance. Layer thicknesses are typically measured by optical microscopy of the particle cross section near mid-plane, while layer volumes are estimated with serial sectioning and microscopy. This method for measuring layer volumes is limited due to the resolution limit imposed by slice thickness and the effect of the polishing process on delicate irradiated particle microstructures. In this study, image processing software has been developed to segregate the three-dimensional (3D) TRISO particle images provided by x-ray computed tomography (XCT) into high-resolution volumetric data for the kernel, all particle layers, and any internal voids introduced during irradiation. These data can be used to analyze key in-reactor behaviors of TRISO particles such as kernel swelling or buffer shrinkage, which are important inputs for fuel performance modeling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Volume of Distribution in Humans: Performance of In Silico Methods for a Large Set of Structurally Diverse Clinical Compounds

Volume of distribution at steady state (V D,ss ) is one of the key pharmacokinetic parameters estimated during the drug discovery process. Despite considerable efforts to predict V D,ss , accuracy and choice of prediction methods remain a challenge, with evaluations constrained to a small set (<150) of compounds. To address these issues, a series of in silico methods for predicting human V D,ss directly from structure were evaluated using a large set of clinical compounds. Machine learning (ML) models were built to predict V D,ss directly and to predict input parameters required for mechanistic and empirical V D,ss predictions. In addition, log D, fraction unbound in plasma (fup), and blood-to-plasma partition ratio (BPR) were measured on 254 compounds to estimate the impact of measured data on predictive performance of mechanistic models. Furthermore, the impact of novel methodologies such as measuring partition (Kp) in adipocytes and myocytes (n = 189) on V D,ss predictions was also investigated. In predicting V D,ss directly from chemical structures, both mechanistic and empirical scaling using a combination of predicted rat and dog V D,ss demonstrated comparable performance (62%–71% within 3-fold). The direct ML model outperformed other in silico methods (75% within 3-fold, r 2 = 0.5, AAFE = 2.2) when built from a larger data set. Scaling to human from predicted V D,ss of either rat or dog yielded poor results (<47% within 3-fold). Measured fup and BPR improved performance of mechanistic V D,ss predictions significantly (81% within 3-fold, r 2 = 0.6, AAFE = 2.0). Adipocyte intracellular Kp showed good correlation to the V D,ss but was limited in estimating the compounds with low V D,ss .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optical leakage mitigation in ortho-mode transducer detectors for microwave applications

Ortho-mode transducers (OMT) are a commonly used method of coupling opti-cal signals between waveguides and on-chip circuitry and detectors. While the ideal OMT-waveguide coupling requires minimal disturbance to the waveguide, when used for mm-wave applications the waveguide is often slide though and the OMT probes inserted on a thin support membrane. This interface is a potential source of signal leakage and can lead to signal loss and experimental systematics (e.g. in CMB polarization experiments where lost signal can result in temperature to polarization leakage). Here we report on the development of new OMT- waveguide coupling structures with the goal of reducing leakage at the horn-to-detector-wafer interface. The pixel to pixel optical leakage due to the gap be-tween the coupling waveguide and the backshort is reduced by means of a protrusion that passes through the OMT membrane and connects the waveguide sections on each side of the wafer. High frequency electromagnetic simulations indicate that these protrusions can reduce optical leakage in the gap by ~80% percent, with a ~60% filling factor, respect to an ordinary OMT coupling without protrusion, using designs that are compatible with current fabrication processes. We describe the design of the new coupling structure including the impact of varying two key parameters: wafer to optical coupling gap and protrusion fill factor. Prototype devices have been designed that will characterize the performance of the new design using a relative measurement with varying filling factors. We describe the simulation setup and results, and present a chip layout and sample box designed to perform an initial measurement.

Detectors↗

DOE OSTI2019

Probabilistic reliability assessment and case studies for predicted energy savings in residential buildings

This study aims to (1) investigate the key influential parameters (KIPs) in estimating the uncertainty of energy savings using a residential building energy simulation model and (2) perform uncertainty quantification for energy savings for several different scenarios. The proposed methodology was successfully applied to the calculation of uncertainties associated with residential energy retrofits using two test houses designed for pre- and post-retrofit cases. Uncertainties were determined using basic parameters that might be supplied to an energy model and then reevaluated based on an audit of the KIPs identified, resulting in substantially reduced uncertainty. Of four different scenarios, the most uncertain scenario estimated the annual energy savings from the retrofit would be between 18% and 51% at a 95% confidence level, and the least uncertain scenario estimated the annual savings would be between 26% and 40% at a 95% confidence level. The actual measured annual savings from the two test houses was 28%, which shows an agreement with the uncertainty analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermoelectric coolers for high-power-density 3D electronics heat management

Future advancements in three-dimensional (3D) electronics require robust thermal management methodology. Thermoelectric coolers (TECs) are reliable and solid-state heat pumping devices with high cooling capacity that can meet the requirements of emerging 3D microelectronic devices. In this work, we first provide the design of TECs for electronics cooling using a computational model and then experimentally validate the main predictions. Key device parameters such as device thickness, leg density, and contact resistance were studied to understand their influence on the performance of TECs. Our results show that it is possible to achieve high cooling power density through optimization of TE leg height and packing density. Scaling of TECs is shown to provide ultra-high cooling power density.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evidence of Buried Junctions in CdSeTe Absorbers

The introduction of selenium band gap gradients has been shown to be a promising path for improving CdTe devices. Controlling maximum selenium concentration during deposition should allow for better device performance. In this work cross-section electron beam induced current (EBIC) maps were measured for CdSeTe/CdTe devices with as-grown selenium concentration between 0 and 20 percent. Measured EBIC profiles show high collection in the middle of the absorber layer, which differs from past EBIC studies of CdSe/CdTe devices. Increasing as-deposited selenium concentrations resulted in increased collection at this mid-absorber location. Combined with a 2-dimensional numerical model, these results suggest a buried homo-junction in the absorber layer of the device. This buried junction may be associated with a number of composition dependent parameters including electron affinity and p-dopability. Understanding this collection profile and its implications for device performance may be key in optimizing CdSeTe/CdTe devices.

CdSeTe↗

DOE OSTI2020

Irradiation enhanced diffusion and diffusional creep in U₃Si₂

U₃Si₂ is a candidate as an advanced fuel for light water reactors (LWRs). Compared to UO₂, there are significant data gaps for the thermophysical and thermomechanical properties of U₃Si₂. Atomic scale simulations can help fill in those gaps, while also providing a more mechanistic understanding of the material properties. Creep is an important property for fuel performance as it influences the pellet-cladding gap, which in turn affects the temperature of the fuel (a key parameter in many other aspects of fuel behavior). In this work, we employed a DFT-informed cluster dynamics framework to predict point defect concentrations in U₃Si₂. The concentrations, diffusivities, and volumes of these defects were used to develop a diffusional creep model based on bulk (Nabarro-Herring) and grain boundary (Coble) diffusion processes. It was found that irradiation enhanced Nabarro-Herring creep is dominant at low temperatures, while Coble creep dominates for high temperatures. The model compares well against available experimental data and has been implemented in BISON. A demonstration case using simple power profiles has been carried out, showing that negligible creep occurs due to the low temperatures experienced by U₃Si₂, a consequence of its high thermal conductivity.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design and performance evaluation of a dual-circuit thermal energy storage module for air conditioners

We present experimental results and a validated numerical model of a dual-circuit phase-change thermal energy storage module for air conditioners. The module incorporates a phase-change material encapsulated in compressed expanded natural graphite foam. We used n-tetradecane as the PCM with a transition temperature (~4.5 °C) suitable for air-conditioning applications. Heat exchange to and from the module is accomplished through two fluid loops operating as a heat source and sink embedded inside multiple slabs of the composite material. This dual-circuit design enables easier integration with air-conditioning equipment and provides enhanced flexibility in system operation as compared to the state-of-the-art thermal storage systems. When integrated with an air-conditioner, this design will enable peak-load shaving and enhances operational efficiency. The thermal storage device was designed for a nominal storage capacity of ~ 3.5 kWh. We evaluated the heat transfer and energy storage performance of this device using standalone heat transfer experiments to estimate key thermal resistances and identify design improvements before integration with an air conditioner. The numerical model of the heat exchanger uses a combination of discretized and lumped parameter approaches to maintain a balance between accuracy and computational expense. Our analyses show that the geometric features and integration of fluid tubes are key contributors to the thermal contact resistance between the fluid and the thermal storage material, and consequently, to the overall performance of the thermal storage module. Our standalone experiments also identified important operating scenarios in which this thermal storage module can be used for air-conditioning in buildings.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A substitutional quantum defect in WS2 discovered by high-throughput computational screening and fabricated by site-selective STM manipulation

Abstract Point defects in two-dimensional materials are of key interest for quantum information science. However, the parameter space of possible defects is immense, making the identification of high-performance quantum defects very challenging. Here, we perform high-throughput (HT) first-principles computational screening to search for promising quantum defects within WS 2 , which present localized levels in the band gap that can lead to bright optical transitions in the visible or telecom regime. Our computed database spans more than 700 charged defects formed through substitution on the tungsten or sulfur site. We found that sulfur substitutions enable the most promising quantum defects. We computationally identify the neutral cobalt substitution to sulfur ( $${\rm{Co}}_{{{{{{{{\rm{S}}}}}}}}}^{0}$$ Co S 0 ) and fabricate it with scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). The $${\rm{Co}}_{{{{{{{{\rm{S}}}}}}}}}^{0}$$ Co S 0 electronic structure measured by STM agrees with first principles and showcases an attractive quantum defect. Our work shows how HT computational screening and nanoscale synthesis routes can be combined to design promising quantum defects.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven assessment of magnetic charged particle confinement parameter scaling in magnetized liner inertial fusion experiments on Z

In magneto-inertial fusion, the ratio of the characteristic fuel length perpendicular to the applied magnetic field R to the α-particle Larmor radius $ϱ_α$ is a critical parameter setting the scale of electron thermal-conduction loss and charged burn-product confinement. Here, using a previously developed deep-learning-based Bayesian inference tool, we obtain the magnetic-field fuel-radius product BR ∝ R / $ϱ_α$ from an ensemble of 16 magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments. Observations of the trends in BR are consistent with relative trade-offs between compression and flux loss as well as the impact of mix from 1D resistive radiation magneto-hydrodynamics simulations in all but two experiments, for which 3D effects are hypothesized to play a significant role. Finally, we explain the relationship between BR and the generalized Lawson parameter χ. Our results indicate the ability to improve performance in MagLIF through careful tuning of experimental inputs, while also highlighting key risks from mix and 3D effects that must be mitigated in scaling MagLIF to higher currents with a next-generation driver.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Time‐And‐Space Averaging Applied to Intermittent Multiphase Flow Experiments

Abstract Various researchers have studied fluctuations in pore‐scale phase occupancy during multiphase flow in porous media using synchrotron‐based X‐ray microcomputed tomography (micro‐CT). However, the impact of these fluctuations on the concept of a representative volume is not yet fully understood. In this study, we performed spatial and temporal averaging of multiphase flow experiments visualized with synchrotron‐based micro‐CT, focusing on oil saturation as the key parameter to determine a representative time‐and‐space average. Our findings revealed that a saturation value representative of both time and space was achieved during fractional flow experiments in drainage mode with fractional flows of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.3. Furthermore, we computed a range of relative permeabilities on the basis of whether momentaneous saturation or time‐and‐space averaged saturation was utilized for direct simulation. Our results highlighted the importance of time‐and‐space averaging in determining a representative relative permeability and indicated that the temporal and spatial scales covered in a typical micro‐CT flow experiment were sufficient to obtain a representative saturation value for sandstone rock under intermittent flow conditions.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2021

The advanced tokamak path to a compact net electric fusion pilot plant

Abstract Physics-based simulations project a compact net electric fusion pilot plant with a nuclear testing mission is possible at modest scale based on the advanced tokamak concept, and identify key parameters for its optimization. These utilize a new integrated 1.5D core-edge approach for whole device modeling to predict performance by self-consistently applying transport, pedestal and current drive models to converge fully non-inductive stationary solutions, predicting profiles and energy confinement for a given density. This physics-based approach leads to new insights and understanding of reactor optimization. In particular, the levering role of high plasma density is identified, which raises fusion performance and self-driven ‘bootstrap currents’, to reduce current drive demands and enable high pressure with net electricity at a compact scale. Solutions at 6–7 T, ∼4 m radius and 200 MW net electricity are identified with margins and trade-offs possible between parameters. Current drive comes from neutral beam and ultra-high harmonic (helicon) fast wave, though other advanced approaches are not ruled out. The resulting low recirculating power in a double null configuration leads to a divertor heat flux challenge that is comparable to ITER, though reactor solutions may require more dissipation. Strong H-mode access (x2 margin over L–H transition scalings) and ITER-like heat fluxes are maintained with ∼20%–60% core radiation, though effects on confinement need further analysis. Neutron wall loadings appear tolerable. The approach would benefit from high temperature superconductors, as higher fields would increase performance margins while potential for demountability may facilitate nuclear testing. However, solutions are possible with conventional superconductors. An advanced load sharing and reactive bucking approach in the device centerpost region provides improved mechanical stress handling. The prospect of an affordable test device which could close the loop on net-electric production and conduct essential nuclear materials and breeding research is compelling, motivating research to validate the techniques and models employed here.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Los Angeles Air Force Base Vehicle-to-Grid Demonstration (Final Project Report)

Electrification of non-tactical vehicle fleets represents a key efficiency and energy security objective for the United States Department of Defense. To achieve electrification, the department targeted vehicle-to-grid services as a way to decrease the overall cost of operating the vehicle fleet and achieve rough parity with traditional internal combustion engine vehicle fleets. This report describes efforts to aggregate a fleet of bi-directional electric vehicles and charging stations to provide regulation up and regulation down in the California Independent System Operator ancillary services market. A 29-vehicle electric vehicle demonstration fleet, consisting of mixed purpose and duty vehicles such as sedans, pickups, vans, and medium-duty trucks, was deployed at the Los Angeles Air Force base. The fleet provided frequency regulation to the California Independent System Operator’s wholesale electricity market to determine the capability of recouping some of the additional costs of procuring electric vehicles and their supporting infrastructure. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, with its partner Kisensum, LLC, developed the fleet scheduling, optimization, and control software to allow the vehicle fleet at the air force base to participate in the ancillary services markets. This report focuses on the control software and market interactions, the significant challenges faced and solutions devised to address them, and examines the potential of using the electric vehicle fleet as an energy storage resource for the base buildings, an application known as vehicle-tobuilding, in providing demand response and emergency backup power. The report discusses key findings related to providing frequency regulation to the California Independent System Operator market, electric vehicle fleet performance, compatibility of varying resource parameters of vehicle fleet aggregation, the need for automated methods for communicating hour-ahead energy bidding, challenges related to battery capacity and charge/discharge rates, and monthly settlement revenue.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗