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At least 199 records · Page 11

Efficient Learning of Accurate Surrogates for Simulations of Complex Systems

Machine learning methods are increasingly deployed to construct surrogate models for complex physical systems at a reduced computational cost. However, the predictive capability of these surrogates degrades in the presence of noisy, sparse, or dynamic data. We introduce an online learning method empowered by optimizer-driven sampling that has two advantages over current approaches: it ensures that all local extrema (including endpoints) of the model response surface are included in the training data and it employs a continuous validation and update process in which surrogates undergo retraining when their performance falls below a validity threshold. We find, using benchmark functions, that optimizer-directed sampling generally outperforms traditional sampling methods in terms of accuracy around local extrema even when the scoring metric is biased towards assessing overall accuracy. Finally, the application to dense nuclear matter demonstrates that highly accurate surrogates for a nuclear equation of state model can be reliably auto-generated from expensive calculations using few model evaluations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Efficient learning of accurate surrogates for simulations of complex systems

Machine learning methods are increasingly deployed to construct surrogate models for complex physical systems at a reduced computational cost. However, the predictive capability of these surrogates degrades in the presence of noisy, sparse or dynamic data. Here, we introduce an online learning method empowered by optimizer-driven sampling that has two advantages over current approaches: it ensures that all local extrema (including endpoints) of the model response surface are included in the training data, and it employs a continuous validation and update process in which surrogates undergo retraining when their performance falls below a validity threshold. We find, using benchmark functions, that optimizer-directed sampling generally outperforms traditional sampling methods in terms of accuracy around local extrema even when the scoring metric is biased towards assessing overall accuracy. Finally, the application to dense nuclear matter demonstrates that highly accurate surrogates for a nuclear equation-of-state model can be reliably autogenerated from expensive calculations using few model evaluations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Serious Gaming for Building a Basis of Certification via Trust and Trustworthiness of Autonomous Systems

Autonomous systems governed by a variety of adaptive and nondeterministic algorithms are being planned for inclusion into safety-critical environments, such as unmanned aircraft and space systems in both civilian and military applications. However, until autonomous systems are proven and perceived to be capable and resilient in the face of unanticipated conditions, humans will be reluctant or unable to delegate authority, remaining in control aided by machine-based information and decision support. Proving capability, or trustworthiness, is a necessary component of certification. Perceived capability is a component of trust. Trustworthiness is an attribute of a cyber-physical system that requires context-driven metrics to prove and certify. Trust is an attribute of the agents participating in the system and is gained over time and multiple interactions through trustworthy behavior and transparency. Historically, artificial intelligence and machine learning systems provide answers without explanation - without a rationale or insight into the machine “thinking”. In order to function as trusted teammates, machines must be able to explain their decisions and actions. This transparency is a product of both content and communication. NASA’s Autonomy Teaming & TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR) project seeks to build a basis for certification of autonomous systems via establishing metrics for trustworthiness and trust in multi-agent team interactions, using AI (Artificial Intelligence) explainability and persistent modeling and simulation, in the context of mission planning and execution, with analyzable trajectories. Inspired by Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPG) and Serious Gaming, the proposed ATTRACTOR modeling and simulation environment is similar to online gaming environments in which player (aka agent) participants interact with each other, affect their environment, and expect the simulation to persist and change regardless of any individual agent’s active participation. This persistent simulation environment will accommodate individual agents, groups of self-organizing agents, and large-scale infrastructure behavior. The effects of the emerging adaptation and coevolution can be observed and measured to building a basis of measurable trustworthiness and trust, toward certification of safety-critical autonomous systems.

Allen, B. Danette↗

Estimating Submicron Aerosol Mixing State at the Global Scale With Machine Learning and Earth System Modeling

Abstract This study integrates machine learning and particle‐resolved aerosol simulations to develop emulators that predict submicron aerosol mixing state indices from the Earth system model (ESM) simulations. The emulators predict aerosol mixing state using only quantities that are predicted by the ESM, including bulk aerosol species concentrations, which do not by themselves carry mixing state information. We used PartMC‐MOSAIC as the particle‐resolved model and NCAR's CESM as the ESM. We trained emulators for three different mixing state indices for submicron aerosol in terms of chemical species abundance ( χ a ), the mixing of optically absorbing and nonabsorbing species ( χ o ), and the mixing of hygroscopic and nonhygroscopic species ( χ h ). Our global mixing state maps show considerable spatial and seasonal variability unique to each mixing state index. Seasonal averages varied spatially between 13% and 94% for χ a , between 38% and 94% for χ o , and between 20% and 87% for χ h with global annual averages of 67%, 68%, and 56%, respectively. High values in one index can be consistent with low values in another index depending on the grouping of species and their relative abundance, meaning that each mixing state index captures different aspects of the population mixing state. Although a direct validation with observational data has not been possible yet, our results are consistent with mixing state index values derived from ambient observations. This work is a prototypical example of using machine learning emulators to add information to ESM simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-guided Deep Learning for Power System State Estimation

In the past decade, dramatic progress has been made in the field of machine learning. This paper explores the possibility of applying deep learning in power system state estimation. Traditionally, physics-based models are used including weighted least square (WLS) or weighted least absolute value (WLAV). These models typically consider a single snapshot of the system without capturing temporal correlations of system states. In this paper, a physics-guided deep learning (PGDL) method is proposed. Specifically, inspired by autoencoders, deep neural networks (DNNs) are used to learn the temporal correlations. The estimated system states from DNNs are then checked against physics laws by running through a set of power flow equations. Hence, the proposed PGDL is both data-driven and physics-guided. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed PGDL method are compared with traditional methods in standard IEEE cases. Simulations show promising results and the applicability is further discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Distributed Data-Driven Optimization for Voltage Regulation in Distribution Systems

Here, this paper proposes a distributed data-driven optimization framework for voltage regulation in distribution systems. The recursive kernel regression and alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) are selected to cover the system learning and distributed optimization tasks. The proposed distributed data-driven framework is capable of having a rapid response to system or load changes while considering the operation optimality. Besides, the distributed algorithm parallels the computation tasks and reduces the computational expense of a single agent. To validate the performance of the proposed method, a hypothetical 7-Bus system and the IEEE 123-Bus system are selected to show the effectiveness of the proposed data-driven framework. According to the numerical study results, the proposed method offers great flexibility for selecting customized kernel models for different regions and can effectively improve the system voltage profile in a distributed manner.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The new organization: Rethinking work in the age of virtuality

Like two enormous steam engines, throttles wide-open, bells clanging and whistles screeching, careening toward each other down the same track, two powerful forces are about to collide and the point of collision will be smack in the middle of the white-collar workplace. Moreover, once the dust has settled, it is quite likely that we will never be able to think about the white-collar workplace in quite the same way again. The forces couldn't be more different. One force, the theory of complex adaptive systems, has its roots in the radical new sciences of chaos and complexity. The other force, the notion of organizations being learning systems, more like living organisms than 'information factories,' is an outgrowth of the new management thinking of leading organizational theorists like the Claremont Graduate School's Peter Drucker, MIT's Peter Senge, and Hitotsubashi University's Ikujiro Nonaka. Nevertheless, both the new science and the new management thinking seem to point to a similar and perhaps even startling conclusion: the business organization of the 21st century will look nothing like the bureaucratic organizational model that prevails in most companies today, a model that has remained largely unchanged since the manufacturing heydays of 1950s. While the details of the new organization remain sketchy, its rough outline is already beginning to take shape. Rather than simply being flatter through the elimination of layer upon layer of 'middle management,' the new organization is likely to be made up of networks of specialists who will be, for all practical purposes, self-managing. Rather than focusing on issues like re-engineering business processes, a holdover from Taylorism, the focus will be on supporting the continuous learning of an organization's specialists, the sharing of this learning with other specialists, and the embedding of this learning in the organization's physical structure. Finally, rather than viewing themselves as going through relatively long periods of stability punctuated by shorts bursts of 'reorganization,' business enterprises will come to realize that their very survival depends upon their being in a state of continuous organization. The implications of the new organization with respect to how companies approach the planning, design, and management of the technology infrastructure that enables individual learning, self-management, and continuous orgsnization, are both numerous and far-reaching. As part of this technology infrastructure, the white-collar workplace exists in the form it does today as a direct result of management's beliefs about how time, space, and tools ought to be organized and managed in order to accomplish useful intellectual work. Obviously, if these beliefs change radically, as both the new science and the new management thinking suggest is about to happen, then it is almost inevitable that the form and function of the white-collar workplace will change radically, as well. Will there even be a white-collar workplace in the 21st century, in the sense of purpose-built facilities designed to support the co-location of large numbers of white-collar workers? Only time will tell. However, the leading indicators seem to suggest that, as the old saying goes, 'We ain't seen nothin' yet!'

Sutherland, Duncan B., Jr.↗

Lessons learned in the development of the STOL intelligent tutoring system

Lessons learned during the development of the NASA Systems Test and Operations Language (STOL) Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS), being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center are presented. The purpose of the intelligent tutor is to train STOL users by adapting tutoring based on inferred student strengths and weaknesses. This system has been under development for over one year and numerous lessons learned have emerged. These observations are presented in three sections, as follows. The first section addresses the methodology employed in the development of the STOL ITS and briefly presents the ITS architecture. The second presents lessons learned, in the areas of: intelligent tutor development; documentation and reporting; cost and schedule control; and tools and shells effectiveness. The third section presents recommendations which may be considered by other ITS developers, addressing: access, use and selection of subject matter experts; steps involved in ITS development; use of ITS interface design prototypes as part of knowledge engineering; and tools and shells effectiveness.

Seamster, Thomas↗

A meta-learning based distribution system load forecasting model selection framework

This paper presents a meta-learning based, automatic distribution system load forecasting model selection framework. Furthermore, the framework includes the following processes: feature extraction, candidate model preparation and labeling, offline training, and online model recommendation. Using load forecasting needs and data characteristics as input features, multiple metalearners are used to rank the candidate load forecast models based on their forecasting accuracy. Then, a scoring-voting mechanism is proposed to weights recommendations from each meta-leaner and make the final recommendations. Heterogeneous load forecasting tasks with different temporal and technical requirements at different load aggregation levels are set up to train, validate, and test the performance of the proposed framework. Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of the meta-learning based approach is satisfactory in both seen and unseen forecasting tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Outage Cause Classification of Power Distribution Systems with Machine Learning and Real-World Data

Power distribution systems are geographically dispersed by nature. It may be affected by various factors, such as vegetation, weather, animal and human behaviors. Present response procedures to an outage event massively rely on expert experience and thus tend to be time-consuming. Automatic outage event detection and classification will help to reduce the responding and restoration time. However, this issue is less addressed with existing research done in this area. In this applied research, a set of waveform pre-processing techniques are first proposed to prepare the waveform data for being used as inputs to the classification algorithm. Further, a machine learning-based algorithm is proposed to classify the outage events according to their root causes, e.g. tree contact, animal contact, lightning, etc. Available data include three phase current & voltage waveforms and contextual information during the distribution system outages. The proposed machine learning algorithm takes the current and voltage waveforms as direct inputs in search of features that humans are unable to capture. Real data provided by a distribution company in the East Tennessee region is used to test the proposed pre-processing techniques and the classification algorithm.

Sun, Haoyuan↗

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics: Changes to the historical cover type database (Task F)

All the options in the NASA VEGetation Workbench (VEG) make use of a database of historical cover types. This database contains results from experiments by scientists on a wide variety of different cover types. The learning system uses the database to provide positive and negative training examples of classes that enable it to learn distinguishing features between classes of vegetation. All the other VEG options use the database to estimate the error bounds involved in the results obtained when various analysis techniques are applied to the sample of cover type data that is being studied. In the previous version of VEG, the historical cover type database was stored as part of the VEG knowledge base. This database was removed from the knowledge base. It is now stored as a series of flat files that are external to VEG. An interface between VEG and these files was provided. The interface allows the user to select which files of historical data to use. The files are then read, and the data are stored in Knowledge Engineering Environment (KEE) units using the same organization of units as in the previous version of VEG. The interface also allows the user to delete some or all of the historical database units from VEG and load new historical data from a file. This report summarizes the use of the historical cover type database in VEG. It then describes the new interface to the files containing the historical data. It describes minor changes that were made to VEG to enable the externally stored database to be used. Test runs to test the operation of the new interface and also to test the operation of VEG using historical data loaded from external files are described. Task F was completed. A Sun cartridge tape containing the KEE and Common Lisp code for the new interface and the modified version of the VEG knowledge base was delivered to the NASA GSFC technical representative.

Source record↗

Active Learning for Metamaterial Optimization on HPC and QC Integrated Systems

Active learning algorithms, integrating machine learning, quantum computing and optics simulation in an iterative loop, offer a promising approach to optimizing metamaterials. However, these algorithms can face difficulties in optimizing highly complex structures due to computational limitations. High-performance computing (HPC) and quantum computing (QC) integrated systems can address these issues by enabling parallel computing. In this study, we develop an active learning algorithm working on HPC-QC integrated systems. We evaluate the performance of optimization processes within active learning (i.e., training a machine learning model, problem-solving with quantum computing, and evaluating optical properties through wave-optics simulation) for highly complex metamaterial cases. Our results showcase that utilizing multiple cores on the integrated system can significantly reduce computational time, thereby enhancing the efficiency of optimization processes. Therefore, we expect that leveraging HPC-QC integrated systems helps effectively tackle large-scale optimization challenges in general.

Kim, Seongmin↗

End-to-end learning of multiple sequence alignments with differentiable Smith–Waterman

Abstract Motivation Multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) of homologous sequences contain information on structural and functional constraints and their evolutionary histories. Despite their importance for many downstream tasks, such as structure prediction, MSA generation is often treated as a separate pre-processing step, without any guidance from the application it will be used for. Results Here, we implement a smooth and differentiable version of the Smith–Waterman pairwise alignment algorithm that enables jointly learning an MSA and a downstream machine learning system in an end-to-end fashion. To demonstrate its utility, we introduce SMURF (Smooth Markov Unaligned Random Field), a new method that jointly learns an alignment and the parameters of a Markov Random Field for unsupervised contact prediction. We find that SMURF learns MSAs that mildly improve contact prediction on a diverse set of protein and RNA families. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that by connecting our differentiable alignment module to AlphaFold2 and maximizing predicted confidence, we can learn MSAs that improve structure predictions over the initial MSAs. Interestingly, the alignments that improve AlphaFold predictions are self-inconsistent and can be viewed as adversarial. This work highlights the potential of differentiable dynamic programming to improve neural network pipelines that rely on an alignment and the potential dangers of optimizing predictions of protein sequences with methods that are not fully understood. Availability and implementation Our code and examples are available at: https://github.com/spetti/SMURF. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

On the recognition of complex structures: Computer software using artificial intelligence applied to pattern recognition

An approach to simultaneous interpretation of objects in complex structures so as to maximize a combined utility function is presented. Results of the application of a computer software system to assign meaning to regions in a segmented image based on the principles described in this paper and on a special interactive sequential classification learning system, which is referenced, are demonstrated.

Yakimovsky, Y.↗

Verification and Validation of KBS with Neural Network Components

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) play an important role in developing robust Knowledge Based Systems (KBS). The ANN based components used in these systems learn to give appropriate predictions through training with correct input-output data patterns. Unlike traditional KBS that depends on a rule database and a production engine, the ANN based system mimics the decisions of an expert without specifically formulating the if-than type of rules. In fact, the ANNs demonstrate their superiority when such if-then type of rules are hard to generate by human expert. Verification of traditional knowledge based system is based on the proof of consistency and completeness of the rule knowledge base and correctness of the production engine.These techniques, however, can not be directly applied to ANN based components.In this position paper, we propose a verification and validation procedure for KBS with ANN based components. The essence of the procedure is to obtain an accurate system specification through incremental modification of the specifications using an ANN rule extraction algorithm.

Wen, Wu↗

Intelligent machines in the twenty-first century: foundations of inference and inquiry

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra to the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines, in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. Recent advances in our understanding of the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we recently identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which will now allow us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper, we examine the foundations of inference and inquiry. We begin with a history of inferential reasoning, highlighting key concepts that have led to the automation of inference in modern machine-learning systems. We then discuss the foundations of inference in more detail using a modern viewpoint that relies on the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory. This new viewpoint allows us to develop the logic of inquiry and introduce a measure describing the relevance of a proposed question to an unresolved issue. Last, we will demonstrate the automation of inference, and discuss how this new logic of inquiry will enable intelligent machines to ask questions. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them not only to make inferences from data, but also to decide which question to ask, which experiment to perform, or which measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

Review↗

Functional description of a command and control language tutor

The status of an ongoing project to explore the application of Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) technology to NASA command and control languages is described. The primary objective of the current phase of the project is to develop a user interface for an ITS to assist NASA control center personnel in learning Systems Test and Operations Language (STOL). Although this ITS will be developed for Gamma Ray Observatory operators, it will be designed with sufficient flexibility so that its modules may serve as an ITS for other control languages such as the User Interface Language (UIL). The focus of this phase is to develop at least one other form of STOL representation to complement the operational STOL interface. Such an alternative representation would be adaptively employed during the tutoring session to facilitate the learning process. This is a key feature of this ITS which distinguishes it from a simulator that is only capable of representing the operational environment.

Elke, David R.↗

Application of Agile for Systems Engineering, Project Management and Modeling and Lessons Learned

The Systems Engineering team within the Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element has been transforming its development processes to be more efficient, robust,and responsive to change and to its stakeholders. To these ends, the Systems Engineering team trialed the integration of agile development techniques into existing and new processes. Agile development methods are well understood within the software development community. Outside ofsoftware development, however, how non-software project management (PM) and systems engineering (SE) teams implement agile development techniques is less well understood. In its transformation efforts, the ExMC SE team focused on three main areas: Improving the project communications among subsystem teams and stakeholders by adopting a scrum-like process, Changing the status and reporting mechanisms to improve schedule coordination between the subsystem team, SE leadership, and ExMC Element leadership, and Unifying the model-based SE workflow to improve understanding of Concepts of Operations across projects.This presentation highlights several of these transformations and what the SE team learned while undergoing the transformation.

S Lumpkins↗