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NASA NTRS2023

Maldives Climate II: Evaluating the Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Human Development and Coastal Infrastructure

The Republic of the Maldives is a low-lying island nation in the Indian Ocean which has experienced rapid urbanization, landcover changes, and sea level rise over recent years. The growth of tourism, coastal erosion, and urbanization have all driven land reclamation efforts across many islands. As in-situ landcover change monitoring has proven difficult across the vast archipelago, the NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with the Maldives Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, and Technology; USAID; and the U.S. Department of State, to utilize Earth observations to predict sea level rise impacts on coastal infrastructure. The team used a supervised classification algorithm within Google Earth Engine to create land use maps and time series analyses of nine islands and atolls using imagery from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument, and PlanetScope, covering a combined period of 2000 through 2023. Additionally, the team projected coastal inundation with a modified deterministic Bathtub model utilizing elevation data from CoastalDEM and 2050-2100 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios identified in the NASA Sea Level Rise Projection Tool. The team found that islands undergoing urban growth experienced a 23% decrease in vegetation between 2014 and 2022. Furthermore, the model predicted that 51–57% of the study area’s-built environment has a chance of inundation by 2100 under the low and high sea level scenarios. These analyses demonstrate how remote sensing can be used to both track land use changes over time and project how coastlines will be affected by sea level rise.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2026

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) Capability Maturity Levels for Ecosystems Enabling Digital Transformation

Digital engineering (DE) and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) are widely recognized as critical enablers of faster, more affordable, and more reliable aerospace systems. However, many organizations have struggled to realize the promised return on investment (ROI) from digital initiatives. A primary reason is the absence of a shared, decision-focused framework that distinguishes simple digitization of existing workflows from true digital transformation that fundamentally changes how engineering decisions are made. This paper introduces an ICME capability maturity framework that fills this gap. The framework defines six cumulative ICME capability maturity levels (CMLs), explicitly tied to decision authority, engineering integration, optimization, and uncertainty management across material, process, structure, and performance scales. It is designed to complement established readiness metrics such as technology readiness levels (TRLs), manufacturing readiness levels (MRLs), and integration readiness levels (IRLs), by addressing a missing dimension: the conditions required for model-informed decision authority across scales. A unifying figure and capability table illustrate the six-level ICME Capability Maturity Framework, showing how organizations progress from digitization—with limited or negative ROI—to true digital transformation, where ICME-enabled workflows deliver measurable improvements in decision quality, cycle time, risk reduction, and reuse. The framework is intended for both technical practitioners and executive leadership, providing a common language to assess current state, guide roadmaps, align software ecosystem investments, and set realistic expectations for digital transformation outcomes. A regulatory-relevant statement clarifying the relationship between ICME capability and existing certification frameworks is provided.

ICME↗

DOE OSTI2025

A two-loop four-point form factor at function level

Recently, the maximally-helicity-violating four-point form factor for the chiral stress-energy tensor in planar $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 super Yang-Mills was computed to three loops at the level of the symbol associated with multiple polylogarithms. It exhibits antipodal self-duality, or invariance under the combined action of a kinematic map and reversing the ordering of letters in the symbol. Here we lift the two-loop form factor from symbol level to function level. We provide an iterated representation of the function’s derivatives (coproducts). In order to do so, we find a three-parameter limit of the five-parameter phase space where the symbol’s letters are all rational. We also use function-level information about dihedral symmetries and the soft, collinear, and factorization limits, as well as limits governed by the form-factor operator product expansion (FFOPE). We provide plots of the remainder function on several kinematic slices, and show that the result is compatible with the FFOPE data. We further verify that antipodal self-duality is valid at two loops beyond the level of the symbol.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Investigating the opioid epidemic across the United States: Associations between county-level characteristics and overdose mortality

The opioid crisis remains a critical public health challenge in the United States. Despite national efforts that reduced opioid prescribing by nearly 44% between 2011 and 2021, opioid overdose deaths more than tripled during the same period. This alarming trend reflects a major shift in the crisis, with illegal opioids now driving the majority of overdose deaths instead of prescription opioids. Although supply-side factors fueling this transition have been widely studied, the structural and community-level conditions that shape overdose mortality are less well understood. To help address this gap, this study has three primary objectives: (1) overcome structural gaps in national data to construct a complete nationwide county-level dataset from 2010 to 2022; (2) using data analysis, identify and investigate spatiotemporal anomalies in overdose mortality; and (3) using two machine-learning models, quantify the importance of thirteen social vulnerability variables in predicting overdose mortality. Our results identify unemployment and limited vehicle access as key county-level predictors of overdose mortality. Higher levels of these vulnerabilities are associated with elevated mortality, whereas lower levels are associated with reduced mortality. These findings highlight factors that may be relevant for public health planning and policy prioritization within the context of the opioid crisis.

Anomaly analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

The interactivity of sources and dietary levels of resistant starches – impact on growth performance, starch, and nutrient digestibility, digesta oligosaccharides profile, cecal microbial metabolites, and indicators of gut health in broiler chickens

In a 21-d study, 480 Cobb 500 (off-sex) male broiler chicks were used to investigate the effects of feeding different sources and levels of resistant starches (RS) on growth performance, nutrient and energy utilization, and intestinal health in broiler chickens. The birds were allocated to 10 dietary treatments in a 3 × 3 + 1 factorial arrangement. The factors were 3 RS-sources (RSS): banana starch (BS), raw potato starch (RPS), and high-amylose corn starch (HCS); each at 3 levels (RSL) 25, 50, or 100 g/kg plus a corn-soybean meal control diet. Birds and feed were weighed on d 0, 8, and 21. On d 21, samples of jejunal tissue and digesta were collected for chemical analysis. Data were analyzed using the mixed model procedure of JMP with factor levels nested with the control. In the 0 to 21 phase, the birds fed the RPS diets had higher (P = 0.011) FI than those fed HCS or control diets, and FCR was greater (P = 0.030) in birds that received BS diets than in other diets. RSS × RSL was significant (P < 0.05) for total tract nutrient retention, AME, and AMEn on d 21. The starch digestibility was higher (P < 0.001) in birds that received the control diet than in RS diets, and decreased as RS levels increased, except for HCS. The apparent metabolizable energy (AME) and nitrogen-corrected AME (AMEn) were higher (P < 0.001) in birds fed 100 g/kg HCS diet, with both decreasing with increasing levels of BS and RPS, except for HCS. Relative ileal oligosaccharides profile showed significant (P < 0.05) RSS × RSL with a higher relative abundance of Hex(3) (P = 0.01) and Pent(3) (P = 0.001) in HCS diets. In conclusion, RS may influence gut health and growth performance in broiler chickens through modulation of cecal SCFA and nutrient digestion, but these depend largely on the botanical origin and concentrations of individual RS.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tethered balloon system and High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry Reveal Increased Organonitrates Aloft Compared to the Ground Level

Atmospheric particles play critical roles in climate. However, significant knowledge gaps remain regarding the vertically resolved organic molecular-level composition of atmospheric particles due to aloft sampling challenges. To address this, we use a tethered balloon system at the Southern Great Plains Observatory and high-resolution mass spectrometry to, respectively, collect and characterize organic molecular formulas (MF) in the ground level and aloft (up to 750 m) samples. We show that organic MF uniquely detected aloft were dominated by organonitrates (139 MF; 54% of all uniquely detected aloft MF). Organonitrates that were uniquely detected aloft featured elevated O/C ratios (0.73 ± 0.23) compared to aloft organonitrates that were commonly observed at the ground level (0.63 ± 0.22). Unique aloft organic molecular composition was positively associated with increased cloud coverage, increased aloft relative humidity (~40% increase compared to ground level), and decreased vertical wind variance. Furthermore, 29% of extremely low volatility organic compounds in the aloft sample were truly unique to the aloft sample compared to the ground level, emphasizing potential oligomer formation at higher altitudes. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering vertically resolved organic molecular composition (particularly for organonitrates) and hypothesizes that aqueous phase transformations and vertical wind variance may be key variables affecting the molecular composition of aloft organic aerosol.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Genetically manipulated chloroplast stromal phosphate levels alter photosynthetic efficiency

Abstract The concentration of inorganic phosphate (Pi) in the chloroplast stroma must be maintained within narrow limits to sustain photosynthesis and to direct the partitioning of fixed carbon. However, it is unknown if these limits or the underlying contributions of different chloroplastic Pi transporters vary throughout the photoperiod or between chloroplasts in different leaf tissues. To address these questions, we applied live Pi imaging to Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) wild-type plants and 2 loss-of-function transporter mutants: triose phosphate/phosphate translocator (tpt), phosphate transporter 2;1 (pht2;1), and tpt pht2;1. Our analyses revealed that stromal Pi varies spatially and temporally, and that TPT and PHT2;1 contribute to Pi import with overlapping tissue specificities. Further, the series of progressively diminished steady-state stromal Pi levels in these mutants provided the means to examine the effects of Pi on photosynthetic efficiency without imposing nutritional deprivation. ΦPSII and nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ) correlated with stromal Pi levels. However, the proton efflux activity of the ATP synthase (gH+) and the thylakoid proton motive force (pmf) were unaltered under growth conditions, but were suppressed transiently after a dark to light transition with return to wild-type levels within 2 min. These results argue against a simple substrate-level limitation of ATP synthase by depletion of stromal Pi, favoring more integrated regulatory models, which include rapid acclimation of thylakoid ATP synthase activity to reduced Pi levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1963

A SURVEY OF MASS AND LEVEL GAUGING TECHNIQUES FOR LIQUID HYDROGEN

Generally, liquid level sensors are used to determine the liquid mass or head in tank filling, holding, and propellant utilization systems for rocket vehicles, and also In storage Inventory and research applications. The latter two applications are so varied that they will not be discussed further. Tank filling and holding to a predetermined liquid mass require a flow control system that is maintained by a liquid level sensor. The sensor may be a continuous-reading type or a rake of point sensors located in the vicinity of the required level Propellant utilization systems control the relative flows of the liquid propellants so that, ideally, no propellant is left over at burnout. A liquid level sensing and control system monitors the liquid mass in each tank during outflow and corrects the relative propellant flows to obtain the desired result. The level sensor again may be either a continuous sensor or a rake of point sensors.

LIQUID HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1974

Development and flight tests of a gyro-less wing leveler and directional autopilot

A gyro-less wing leveler and directional autopilot were developed and flight tested in a single-engine light airplane. The primary purpose of the project was to develop a simple, reliable, low-cost stability augmentation and autopilot system for light aircraft. The wing leveler used a fluidic inertial rate sensor, electronic signal processing circuitry, and vacuum operated servos. A strap-down magnetic heading reference of simple design provided the wing leveler with directional autopilot capability. Flight tests indicated that the performance of the gyro-less wing leveler was equal to that of a commercial wing leveler using a gyroscopic rate sensor. Drift-free, long-term, heading-hold capability of the magnetic heading reference was demonstrated.

Garner, H. D.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Tibial bone mineral distribution as influenced by calcium, phosphorus, and vitamin D feeding levels in the growing turkey

Roentgen signs, subperiosteal, endosteal, and trabecular bone growth are evaluated in turkeys fed phosphorus at the 0.5, 0.56, 0.68, 0.90, and 2.70 percent levels. Calcium levels of 0.30, 0.40, 0.60, 1.2, and 3.60 percent were also tested. Vitamin D levels of 0, 100, 300, 900 and 27,000 I.U. per day were likewise evaluated. Roentgen signs, bone mineral as measured by T-125 gamma ray absorption, and bone mineral growth patterns as shown by radiograph area projection are correlated with calcium, phosphorus, and vitamin D feeding levels. Differences in bone growth at the various feeding levels were observed which were not reflected by differences in other studied parameters.

Spurrell, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Sea level data and techniques for detecting vertical crustal movements

An attempt is made to survey problems, requirements, and the outlook for the future in the study of sea level time series so as to determine the relative movement of land and sea levels. The basic aim is to eliminate from the record the contributions from whatever marine dynamic phenomena respond to treatment, allowing the secular element to be identified with optimum clarity. Nevertheless the concept of sea level perturbation varies according to regional experience. The recent work of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level helps to eliminate geodetic noise from the series and makes it possible, perhaps, to treat the global mean sea level data bank so as to define eustatic changes in ocean volume which, in the present context, may be regarded as the final goal, allowing the identification of vertical crustal motion itself.

Lennon, G. W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Procedures for estimating the frequency of commercial airline flights encountering high cabin ozone levels

Three analytical problems in estimating the frequency at which commercial airline flights will encounter high cabin ozone levels are formulated and solved: namely, estimating flight-segment mean levels, estimating maximum-per-flight levels, and estimating the maximum average level over a specified flight interval. For each problem, solution procedures are given for different levels of input information - from complete cabin ozone data, which provides a direct solution, to limited ozone information, such as ambient ozone means and standard deviations, with which several assumptions are necessary to obtain the required estimates. Each procedure is illustrated by an example case calculation that uses simultaneous cabin and ambient ozone data obtained by the NASA Global Atmospheric Sampling Program. Critical assumptions are discussed and evaluated, and the several solutions for each problem are compared. Example calculations are also performed to illustrate how variations in lattitude, altitude, season, retention ratio, flight duration, and cabin ozone limits affect the estimated probabilities.

Holdeman, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1980

The role of upper tropospheric jet streaks and lee-side cyclogenesis in the development of low level jets in the great plains

A review of 15 cases of low level jets (LLJ) which developed in the Great Plains is presented. For 12 out of the 15 cases, a systematic upper level flow pattern was isolated which includes the existence of a trough over the southwest United States and the propagation of upper level jet streaks from the Rocky Mountains toward the Great Plains. This flow pattern is responsible for lee side cyclogenesis or lee side troughing that produces the pressure gradients needed for the development of the LLJ. For the other three cases, a blocking ridge existed over the Great Plains and the upper level flow is relatively weak. It is during these situations that the classic, diurnal oscillating LLJ was observed. A more detailed review of four cases indicates that the subsynoptic scale adjustments associated with the upper level jet streak's forcing of lee side cyclogenesis could be an important factor in the development of LLJ's in the Great Plains.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Oxygen as a factor in eukaryote evolution - Some effects of low levels of oxygen on Saccharomyces cerevisiae

A comparative study of the effects of varying levels of oxygen on some of the metabolic functions of the primitive eukaryote, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, has shown that these cells are responsive to very low levels of oxygen: the level of palmitoyl-Co A desaturase was greatly enhanced by only 0.03 vol % oxygen. Similarly, an acetyl-CoA synthetase associated predominantly with anaerobic growth was stimulated by as little as 0.1% oxygen, while an isoenzyme correlated with aerobic growth was maximally active at much higher oxygen levels (greater than 1%). Closely following this latter pattern were three mitochondrial enzymes that attained maximal activity only under atmospheric levels of oxygen.

Jahnke, L.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Hypergravity and estrogen effects on avian anterior pituitary growth hormone and prolactin levels

Developing female chicks with fractured right radii were maintained for 14 d at either earth gravity (1 g) or a hypergravity state (2 g). The birds at 1 g were divided into groups which received daily injections of (1) saline, (2) 200 micrograms estrone, and (3) 400 micrograms estrone for 14 d. The 2-g birds were divided into three similarly treated groups. All 2-g birds showed significantly lower body weights than did 1-g birds. Anterior pituitary (AP) glands were excised and analyzed for growth hormone and prolactin content by analytical electrophoresis. The 1-g chicks receiving either dose of daily estrogen showed increased AP growth hormone levels, whereas hypergravity alone did not affect growth hormone content. Chicks exposed to daily estrogen and hypergravity displayed reduced growth hormone levels. AP prolactin levels were slightly increased by the lower daily estrogen dose in 1-g birds, but markedly reduced in birds exposed only to hypergravity. Doubly-treated chicks displayed normal prolactin levels. Reduced growth in 2-g birds might be due, in part, to reduced AP levels of prolactin and/or growth hormone.

Fiorindo, R. P.↗