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Advanced transportation system studies technical area 2(TA-2): Heavy lift launch vehicle development: Executive summary - volume 1

The purpose of the TA-2 contract was to provide advanced launch vehicle concept definition and analysis to assist NASA in the identification of future launch vehicle requirements. Contracted analysis activities included vehicle sizing and performance analysis, subsystem concept definition, propulsion subsystem definition (foreign and domestic), ground operations and facilities analysis, and life cycle cost estimation. This document is part of the final report for the TA-2 contract. The final report consists of three volumes: Volume 1 is the Executive Summary, Volume 2 is Technical Results, and Volume 3 is Program Cost Estimates. The document-at-hand, Volume 1, provides a summary description of the technical activities that were performed over the entire contract duration, covering three distinct launch vehicle definition activities: heavy-lift (300,000 pounds injected mass to low Earth orbit) launch vehicles for the First Lunar Outpost (FLO), medium-lift (50,000-80,000 pounds injected mass to low Earth orbit) launch vehicles, and single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) launch vehicles (25,000 pounds injected mass to a Space Station orbit).

McCurry, J.↗

Contamination control engineering design guidelines for the aerospace community

Thermal control surfaces, solar arrays, and optical devices may be adversely affected by a small quantity of molecular and/or particulate contamination. What is rarely discussed is how one: (1) quantifies the level of contamination that must be maintained in order for the system to function properly, and (2) enforces contamination control to ensure compliance with requirements. This document is designed to address these specific issues and is intended to serve as a handbook on contamination control for the reader, illustrating process and methodology while providing direction to more detailed references when needed. The effects of molecular contamination on reflecting and transmitting surfaces are examined and quantified in accordance with MIL STD 1246C. The generation, transportation, and deposition of molecular contamination is reviewed and specific examples are worked to illustrate the process a design engineer can use to estimate end of life cleanliness levels required by solar arrays, thermal control surfaces, and optical surfaces. A similar process is used to describe the effect of particulate contamination as related to percent area coverage (PAC) and bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). Relationships between PAC and surface cleanliness, which include the effects of submicron sized particles, are developed and BRDF is related to specific sensor design parameters such as Point Source Transmittance (PST). The pros and cons of various methods of preventing, monitoring, and cleaning surfaces are examined and discussed.

Tribble, A. C.↗

Fin Buffeting Features of an Early F-22 Model

Fin buffeting is an aeroelastic phenomenon encountered by high performance aircraft, especially those with twin vertical tails that must operate at high angles of attack. This buffeting is a concern from fatigue and inspection points of view. To date, the buffet (unsteady pressures) and buffeting (structural response) characteristics of the F-15 and F/A-18 fins have been studied extensively using flow visualization, flow velocity measurements, pressure transducers, and response gages. By means of windtunnel and flight tests of the F-15 and F/A-18, this phenomenon is well studied to the point that buffet loads can be estimated and fatigue life can he increased by structural enhancements to these airframes. However, prior to the present research, data was not available outside the F-22 program regarding fin buffeting on the F-22 configuration. During a test in the Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel, flow visualization and unsteady fin surface pressures were recorded for a 13.3%-scale F-22 model at high angles of attack for the purpose of comparing with results available for similar aircraft configurations. Details of this test and fin buffeting are presented herein.

Moses, Robert W.↗

Relativistic Effects Around Black Holes: Smearing Absorption Edges

Broad iron absorption structures have been observed in the X-ray spectra of both AGNs and black hole X-ray binaries (BHXBs). A correctly modeled absorption structure can reveal the physical condition of the source, help to determine the continuum spectra and thus help to estimate other spectral lifes more accurately. The absorption structures are usually thought to be caused by the reflection of X-rays by the accretion disks around the central black holes, and the broadening can be a ttributed to the ionization states of the disk and relativistic effects.

Zhang, X. L.↗

Contributions to Active Buffeting Alleviation Programs by the NASA Langley Research Center

Buffeting is an aeroelastic phenomenon which plagues high performance aircraft, especially those with twin vertical tails like the F/A-18, at high angles of attack. This buffeting is a concern from fatigue and inspection points of view. By means of wind-tunnel and flight tests, this phenomenon is well studied to the point that buffet loads can be estimated and fatigue life can be increased by structural enhancements to the airframe. In more recent years, buffeting alleviation through active control of smart materials has been highly researched in wind-tunnel proof-of-concept demonstrations and full-scale ground tests using the F/A-18 as a test bed. Because the F/A-18 resides in fleets outside as well as inside the United States, these tests have evolved into international collaborative research activities with Australia and Canada, coordinated by the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and conducted under the auspices of The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP). With the recent successes and advances in smart materials, the main focus of these buffeting alleviation tests has also evolved to a new level: utilize the F/A-18 as a prototype to mature smart materials for suppressing vibrations of aerospace structures. The role of the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) in these programs is presented.

Moses, Robert W.↗

Impact of Defect Distributions on the Reliability of Structural Materials

The purpose of this study is to develop a probabilistic model to estimate the fatigue life of gas turbine disks made of powder superalloy metals. Such metals are known to have high strength and ductility under extremely high temperatures and known to have high fatigue lives. However, despite the high quality controls instituted during metal processing, sufficiently high numbers of ceramic inclusions materialize within the metal matrix creating weak links that lead to reduced fatigue lives. To study the effect of such ceramic inclusions on the fatigue life of gas turbine disks, an experimental program has been initiated at the NASA Glenn Research. In this phase of the study, a statistical analysis of the test results is undertaken which served as the basis of the probabilistic simulation model. The study is a part of the Crack Resistant Disk Materials task within the Ultra Safe Propulsion Project.

Ghosn, Michel J.↗

Software Developed for Analyzing High- Speed Rolling-Element Bearings

COBRA-AHS (Computer Optimized Ball & Roller Bearing Analysis--Advanced High Speed, J.V. Poplawski & Associates, Bethlehem, PA) is used for the design and analysis of rolling element bearings operating at high speeds under complex mechanical and thermal loading. The code estimates bearing fatigue life by calculating three-dimensional subsurface stress fields developed within the bearing raceways. It provides a state-of-the-art interactive design environment for bearing engineers within a single easy-to-use design-analysis package. The code analyzes flexible or rigid shaft systems containing up to five bearings acted upon by radial, thrust, and moment loads in 5 degrees of freedom. Bearing types include high-speed ball, cylindrical roller, and tapered roller bearings. COBRA-AHS is the first major upgrade in 30 years of such commercially available bearing software. The upgrade was developed under a Small Business Innovation Research contract from the NASA Glenn Research Center, and incorporates the results of 30 years of NASA and industry bearing research and technology.

Fleming, David P.↗

Summary of Stirling Convertor Testing at NASA Glenn Research Center in Support of Stirling Radioisotope Power System Development

The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been testing 100 We class, free-piston Stirling convertors for potential use in Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) for space science and exploration missions. Free-piston Stirling convertors are capable of achieving a 38% conversion efficiency, making Stirling attractive for meeting future power system needs in light of the shrinking U.S. plutonium fuel supply. Convertors currently on test include four Stirling Technology Demonstration Convertors (TDCs), manufactured by the Stirling Technology Company (STC), and six Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), manufactured by Sunpower, Inc. Total hours of operation is greater than 514,000 hours (59 years). Several tests have been initiated to demonstrate the functionality of Stirling convertors for space applications, including: in-air extended operation, thermal vacuum extended operation. Other tests have also been conducted to characterize Stirling performance in anticipated mission scenarios. Data collected during testing has been used to support life and reliability estimates, drive design changes and improve quality, and plan for expected mission scenarios. This paper will provide a summary of convertors tested at NASA GRC and discuss lessons learned through extended testing.

Energy Conversion Efficiency↗

Physics-of-Failure Approach to Prognostics

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of the electrical components present in the system. In case of electric vehicles, computing remaining battery charge is safety-critical. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. In this presentation our approach to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator for different electronic components is presented which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to determine state-of-charge and estimate remaining useful life of respective components. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

Kulkarni, Chetan S.↗

Systems Health Monitoring and Prognostics Using Model Based Approach

In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prior stated prediction problem. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system as well as subsystem levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. In addition a digital twin concept is being implemented in the framework to demonstrate verification and validation of developed algorithms.

Electronics Prognostics↗

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗

Systems Health Management and Decision Making

In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prior stated prediction problem. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. Discuss research approach to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system as well as subsystem levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. In addition a digital twin concept is being implemented in the framework to demonstrate verification and validation of developed algorithms. Note - This presentation is for the short workshop conducted at the same conference and contains all previously approved and published information.

Systems Health Managent↗

A Novel High-Performance Mission-Enabling Multi-Purpose Radioisotope Heat Source

Recent studies indicate science mission concepts targeting access to the sub-surface oceans of icy moons require ice-penetrating cryobots powered by advanced Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS). These systems would deliver waste heat for ice-melting in the range of 10 kW. Minimizing the transit time through the kilometers-thick ice shells to just a few years requires these RPS to utilize heat sources having a higher thermal energy volumetric density than the existing flight-qualified General-Purpose Heat Source (GPHS). A Compact Heat Source (CPHS)has been conceptualized in which the graphite impact shells(GIS) of the existing GPHS are rearranged in a hexagonal aeroshell containing seven GIS per module, as opposed to the standard two per module; offering a thermal energy density of 0.57 W/cm3versus 0.29 W/cm3 offered by the GPHS simply from the repackaging of Technology Readiness Level (TRL)9 subassemblies. Preliminary thermal modeling of the CPHS integrated into a notional radioisotope thermoelectric generator(RTG) structure further suggests that centerline temperatures are well within allowable limits during nominal operation. Given the need for the CPHS for a subset of missions, it is worth exploring the applicability of the CPHS for more general RTG purposes. We discuss herein how the CPHS may be implemented with either heritage or in-development thermoelectric converter technologies into a Next-Generation RTG concept. Due to a higher energy density, the legacy heat rejection fin arrangement must be modified to permit a sufficiently low cold-side temperature. Preliminary finite element analysis suggests fin-root temperatures can be kept as low as 520 K while allowing the generator to fit within the usable dimensions of currently available United States Department of Energy shipping containers. Such temperatures would certainly be compatible with the use of high temperature thermoelectric converter technologies.. A prime candidate is the heritage silicon-germanium (SiGe) unicouple, whose design could be adapted by approximately halving the leg-length, but without changes in hot and cold junction interfaces, which are features critical to the proven performance and reliability of these devices. The estimated Beginning of Life power for a SiGe-based CPHS-RTG using 12 CPHS for a thermal inventory of 10.5 kW is greater than 600 W under deep space operating conditions. Using higher performance segmented couples currently in development that are based on skutterudite,La3−xTe4and 14-1-11 Zintl thermoelectric materials in lieu of the SiGe unicouples would increase the power level to more than1 kW. The high specific power (We/kg) attribute of CPHS-RTGs found in this study could potentially enable Radioisotope Electric Propulsion (REP) mission concepts. Past NASA REP mission concept studies identified specific power needs in excess of 6to 8 We/kg. Based on a GPHS-RTG-like system configuration, we show that at fin root temperatures between 530 K and 570K (deep space environment), specific powers exceeding 10 We/kg are achievable using high performance segmented thermoelectric converters. The compact sizing and power density of the CPHS-RTG would constitute a significant step upgrade in specific power when compared to heritage GPHS-RTG (approximately5.1 We/kg) and off-the-shelf Multi-Mission RTG (approximately 2.6 We/kg).

Nesmith, Bill J.↗

International Space Station Operational Experience and Its Impacts on Future Mission Supportability

Operational experience gained on the International Space Station (ISS) has enabled significant improvements in failure rate estimates for various Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs). These improved estimates, in turn, allow more efficient and accurate spare parts allocations for future missions, enabling significant reductions in both logistics mass and risk. This paper examines the value of ISS experience to date in terms of its impact on supportability for future missions. A supportability model is presented that assesses the spares required as a function of mission endurance and risk, taking into account uncertainty in failure rate estimates. Changes in ISS Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLSS) ORU failure rate estimates are described and discussed, both in terms of the overall population of ORUs and the evolution of failure rate estimates over time for a particular item. The value of those updated failure rate estimates is assessed by calculating the estimated spares mass requirements for two cases, using the initial, pre-ISS estimates and using the estimates informed by on-orbit experience. Hidden risk resulting from underestimated failure rates is also assessed. These results indicate that, for a 1,200-day Mars mission, ISS experience has enabled a 3.9 t to 6.0 t reduction in ECLSS spares mass required and uncovered failure rate underestimates that would have resulted in an order of magnitude increase in risk had they not been discovered and corrected. The implications of these results for system development and mission planning are discussed, including approaches to accelerate the rate of failure rate refinement and the risks associated with making changes or introducing new systems. Overall, test time is a critical factor that must be carefully considered in system development, and new systems must budget appropriate time for testing in a relevant environment or accept higher risk and logistics requirements on future missions.

Owens, Andrew C.↗

A model to assess the Mars Telecommunications Network relay robustness

The relatively long mission durations and compatible radio protocols of current and projected Mars orbiters have enabled the gradual development of a heterogeneous constellation providing proximity communication services for surface assets. The current and forecasted capability of this evolving network has reached the point that designers of future surface missions consider complete dependence on it. Such designers, along with those architecting network requirements, have a need to understand the robustness of projected communication service. A model has been created to identify the robustness of the Mars Network as a function of surface location and time. Due to the decade-plus time horizon considered, the network will evolve, with emerging productive nodes and nodes that cease or fail to contribute. The model is a flexible framework to holistically process node information into measures of capability robustness that can be visualized for maximum understanding. Outputs from JPL's Telecom Orbit Analysis Simulation Tool (TOAST) provide global telecom performance parameters for current and projected orbiters. Probabilistic estimates of orbiter fuel life are derived from orbit keeping burn rates, forecasted maneuver tasking, and anomaly resolution budgets. Orbiter reliability is estimated probabilistically. A flexible scheduling framework accommodates the projected mission queue as well as potential alterations.

Mars Telecommunications Orbiter (MTO)↗

Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements study. Volume 3, book 1: Program cost estimates

The Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements Study cost estimate and program planning analysis is presented. The cost estimating technique used to support STV system, subsystem, and component cost analysis is a mixture of parametric cost estimating and selective cost analogy approaches. The parametric cost analysis is aimed at developing cost-effective aerobrake, crew module, tank module, and lander designs with the parametric cost estimates data. This is accomplished using cost as a design parameter in an iterative process with conceptual design input information. The parametric estimating approach segregates costs by major program life cycle phase (development, production, integration, and launch support). These phases are further broken out into major hardware subsystems, software functions, and tasks according to the STV preliminary program work breakdown structure (WBS). The WBS is defined to a low enough level of detail by the study team to highlight STV system cost drivers. This level of cost visibility provided the basis for cost sensitivity analysis against various design approaches aimed at achieving a cost-effective design. The cost approach, methodology, and rationale are described. A chronological record of the interim review material relating to cost analysis is included along with a brief summary of the study contract tasks accomplished during that period of review and the key conclusions or observations identified that relate to STV program cost estimates. The STV life cycle costs are estimated on the proprietary parametric cost model (PCM) with inputs organized by a project WBS. Preliminary life cycle schedules are also included.

Peffley, Al F.↗

Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

Daigle, Matthew↗