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At least 199 records · Page 11

Validation of a Hot Water Distribution Model Using Laboratory and Field Data

Characterizing the performance of hot water distribution systems is a critical step in developing best practice guidelines for the design and installation of high performance hot water systems. Developing and validating simulation models is critical to this effort, as well as collecting accurate input data to drive the models. In this project, the Building America research team ARBI validated the newly developed TRNSYS Type 604 pipe model against both detailed laboratory and field distribution system performance data. Validation efforts indicate that the model performs very well in handling different pipe materials, insulation cases, and varying hot water load conditions. Limitations of the model include the complexity of setting up the input file and long simulation run times. This project also looked at recent field hot water studies to better understand use patterns and potential behavioral changes as homeowners convert from conventional storage water heaters to gas tankless units. The team concluded that the current Energy Factor test procedure overestimates typical use and underestimates the number of hot water draws, which has implications for both equipment and distribution system performance. Gas tankless water heaters were found to impact how people use hot water, but the data does not necessarily suggest an increase in usage. Further study in hot water usage and patterns is needed to better define these characteristics in different climates and home vintages.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Sprain energy consequences for damage localization and fracture mechanics

The 2023 smooth Lagrangian Crack-Band Model (slCBM), inspired by the 2020 invention of the gap test, prevented spurious damage localization during fracture growth by introducing the second gradient of the displacement field vector, named the “sprain,” as the localization limiter. The key idea was that, in the finite element implementation, the displacement vector and its gradient should be treated as independent fields with the lowest ( C 0 ) continuity, constrained by a second-order Lagrange multiplier tensor. Coupled with a realistic constitutive law for triaxial softening damage, such as microplane model M7, the known limitations of the classical Crack Band Model were eliminated. Here, we show that the slCBM closely reproduces the size effect revealed by the gap test at various crack-parallel stresses. To describe it, we present an approximate corrective formula, although a strong loading-path dependence limits its applicability. Except for the rare case of zero crack-parallel stresses, the fracture predictions of the line crack models (linear elastic fracture mechanics, phase-field, extended finite element method (XFEM), cohesive crack models) can be as much as 100% in error. We argue that the localization limiter concept must be extended by including the resistance to material rotation gradients. We also show that, without this resistance, the existing strain-gradient damage theories may predict a wrong fracture pattern and have, for Mode II and III fractures, a load capacity error as much as 55%. Finally, we argue that the crack-parallel stress effect must occur in all materials, ranging from concrete to atomistically sharp cracks in crystals.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

FPGA-accelerated SpeckleNN with SNL for real-time X-ray single-particle imaging

We present the implementation of a specialized version of our previously published unified embedding model, SpeckleNN, for real-time speckle pattern classification in X-ray Single-Particle Imaging (SPI), using the SLAC Neural Network Library (SNL) on an FPGA platform. This hardware realization transitions SpeckleNN from a prototypic model into a practical edge solution, optimized for running inference near the detector in high-throughput X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) facilities, such as those found at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). To address the resource constraints inherent in FPGAs, we developed a more specialized version of SpeckleNN. The original model, which was designed for broader classification across multiple biological samples, comprised ~5.6 million parameters. The new implementation, while reducing the parameter count to 64.6K (a 98.8% reduction), focuses on maintaining the model's essential functionality for real-time operation, achieving an accuracy of 90%. Furthermore, we compressed the latent space from 128 to 50 dimensions. This implementation was demonstrated on the KCU1500 FPGA board, utilizing 71% of available DSPs, 75% of LUTs, and 48% of FFs, with an average power consumption of 9.4W according to the Vivado post-implementation report. The FPGA performed inference on a single image with a latency of 45.015 microseconds at a 200 MHz clock rate. In comparison, running the same inference on an NVIDIA A100 GPU resulted in an average power consumption of ~73W and an image processing latency of around 400 microseconds. Our FPGA-accelerated version of SpeckleNN demonstrated significant improvements, achieving an 8.9 × speedup and a 7.8 × reduction in power consumption compared to the GPU implementation. Key advancements include model specialization and dynamic weight loading through SNL, which eliminates the need for time-consuming FPGA design re-synthesis, allowing fast and continuous deployment of models (re)trained online. These innovations enable real-time adaptive classification and efficient vetoing of speckle patterns, making SpeckleNN more suited for deployment in XFEL facilities. This implementation has the potential to significantly accelerate SPI experiments and enhance adaptability to evolving experimental conditions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA Tech Briefs, March 2012

The topics include: 1) Spectral Profiler Probe for In Situ Snow Grain Size and Composition Stratigraphy; 2) Portable Fourier Transform Spectroscopy for Analysis of Surface Contamination and Quality Control; 3) In Situ Geochemical Analysis and Age Dating of Rocks Using Laser Ablation-Miniature Mass Spectrometer; 4) Physics Mining of Multi-Source Data Sets; 5) Photogrammetry Tool for Forensic Analysis; 6) Connect Global Positioning System RF Module; 7) Simple Cell Balance Circuit; 8) Miniature EVA Software Defined Radio; 9) Remotely Accessible Testbed for Software Defined Radio Development; 10) System-of-Systems Technology-Portfolio-Analysis Tool; 11) VESGEN Software for Mapping and Quantification of Vascular Regulators; 12) Constructing a Database From Multiple 2D Images for Camera Pose Estimation and Robot Localization; 13) Adaption of G-TAG Software for Validating Touch and Go Asteroid Sample Return Design Methodology; 14) 3D Visualization for Phoenix Mars Lander Science Operations; 15) RxGen General Optical Model Prescription Generator; 16) Carbon Nanotube Bonding Strength Enhancement Using Metal Wicking Process; 17) Multi-Layer Far-Infrared Component Technology; 18) Germanium Lift-Off Masks for Thin Metal Film Patterning; 19) Sealing Materials for Use in Vacuum at High Temperatures; 20) Radiation Shielding System Using a Composite of Carbon Nanotubes Loaded With Electropolymers; 21) Nano Sponges for Drug Delivery and Medicinal Applications; 22) Molecular Technique to Understand Deep Microbial Diversity; 23) Methods and Compositions Based on Culturing Microorganisms in Low Sedimental Fluid Shear Conditions; 24) Secure Peer-to-Peer Networks for Scientific Information Sharing; 25) Multiplexer/Demultiplexer Loading Tool (MDMLT); 26) High-Rate Data-Capture for an Airborne Lidar System; 27) Wavefront Sensing Analysis of Grazing Incidence Optical Systems; 28) Foam-on-Tile Damage Model; 29) Instrument Package Manipulation Through the Generation and Use of an Attenuated-Fluent Gas Fold; 30) Multicolor Detectors for Ultrasensitive Long-Wave Imaging Cameras; 31) Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Command and Data Handling Flight Electronics Subsystem; and 32) Electro-Optic Segment-Segment Sensors for Radio and Optical Telescopes.

Source record↗

A 4-D Climatology (1979-2009) of the Monthly Tropospheric Aerosol Optical Depth Distribution over the Mediterranean Region from a Comparative Evaluation and Blending of Remote Sensing and Model Products

Since the 1980s several spaceborne sensors have been used to retrieve the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Mediterranean region. In parallel, AOD climatologies coming from different numerical model simulations are now also available, permitting to distinguish the contribution of several aerosol types to the total AOD. In this work, we perform a comparative analysis of this unique multiyear database in terms of total AOD and of its apportionment by the five main aerosol types (soil dust, seasalt, sulfate, black and organic carbon). We use 9 different satellite-derived monthly AOD products: NOAA/AVHRR, SeaWiFS (2 products), TERRA/MISR, TERRA/MODIS, AQUA/MODIS, ENVISAT/MERIS, PARASOL/POLDER and MSG/SEVIRI, as well as 3 more historical datasets: NIMBUS7/CZCS, TOMS (onboard NIMBUS7 and Earth- Probe) and METEOSAT/MVIRI. Monthly model datasets include the aerosol climatology from Tegen et al. (1997), the climate-chemistry models LMDz-OR-INCA and RegCM-4, the multi-model mean coming from the ACCMIP exercise, and the reanalyses GEMS and MACC. Ground-based Level- 2 AERONET AOD observations from 47 stations around the basin are used here to evaluate the model and satellite data. The sensor MODIS (on AQUA and TERRA) has the best average AOD scores over this region, showing a relevant spatiotemporal variability and highlighting high dust loads over Northern Africa and the sea (spring and summer), and sulfate aerosols over continental Europe (summer). The comparison also shows limitations of certain datasets (especially MERIS and SeaWiFS standard products). Models reproduce the main patterns of the AOD variability over the basin. The MACC reanalysis is the closest to AERONET data, but appears to underestimate dust over Northern Africa, where RegCM-4 is found closer to MODIS thanks to its interactive scheme for dust emissions. The vertical dimension is also investigated using the CALIOP instrument. This study confirms differences of vertical distribution between dust aerosols showing a large vertical spread, and other continental and marine aerosols which are confined in the boundary layer. From this compilation, we propose a 4-D blended product from model and satellite data, consisting in monthly time series of 3-D aerosol distribution at a 50 km horizontal resolution over the Euro-Mediterranean marine and continental region for the 2003–2009 period. The product is based on the total AOD from AQUA/MODIS, apportioned into sulfates, black and organic carbon from the MACC reanalysis, and into dust and sea-salt aerosols from RegCM-4 simulations, which are distributed vertically based on CALIOP climatology.We extend the 2003–2009 reconstruction to the past up to 1979 using the 2003–2009 average and applying the decreasing trend in sulfate aerosols from LMDz-OR-INCA, whose AOD trends over Europe and the Mediterranean are median among the ACCMIP models. Finally optical properties of the different aerosol types in this region are proposed from Mie calculations so that this reconstruction can be included in regional climate models for aerosol radiative forcing and aerosolclimate studies.

1979-2009↗

A 4-D Climatology (1979-2009) of the Monthly Tropospheric Aerosol Optical Depth Distribution over the Mediterranean Region from a Comparative Evaluation and Blending of Remote Sensing and Model Products

Since the 1980s several spaceborne sensors have been used to retrieve the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Mediterranean region. In parallel, AOD climatologies coming from different numerical model simulations are now also available, permitting to distinguish the contribution of several aerosol types to the total AOD. In this work, we perform a comparative analysis of this unique multiyear database in terms of total AOD and of its apportionment by the five main aerosol types (soil dust, seasalt, sulfate, black and organic carbon). We use 9 different satellite-derived monthly AOD products: NOAA/AVHRR, SeaWiFS (2 products), TERRA/MISR, TERRA/MODIS, AQUA/MODIS, ENVISAT/MERIS, PARASOL/POLDER and MSG/SEVIRI, as well as 3 more historical datasets: NIMBUS7/CZCS, TOMS (onboard NIMBUS7 and Earth- Probe) and METEOSAT/MVIRI. Monthly model datasets include the aerosol climatology from Tegen et al. (1997), the climate-chemistry models LMDz-OR-INCA and RegCM-4, the multi-model mean coming from the ACCMIP exercise, and the reanalyses GEMS and MACC. Ground-based Level- 2 AERONET AOD observations from 47 stations around the basin are used here to evaluate the model and satellite data. The sensor MODIS (on AQUA and TERRA) has the best average AOD scores over this region, showing a relevant spatio-temporal variability and highlighting high dust loads over Northern Africa and the sea (spring and summer), and sulfate aerosols over continental Europe (summer). The comparison also shows limitations of certain datasets (especially MERIS and SeaWiFS standard products). Models reproduce the main patterns of the AOD variability over the basin. The MACC reanalysis is the closest to AERONET data, but appears to underestimate dust over Northern Africa, where RegCM-4 is found closer to MODIS thanks to its interactive scheme for dust emissions. The vertical dimension is also investigated using the CALIOP instrument. This study confirms differences of vertical distribution between dust aerosols showing a large vertical spread, and other continental and marine aerosols which are confined in the boundary layer. From this compilation, we propose a 4-D blended product from model and satellite data, consisting in monthly time series of 3-D aerosol distribution at a 50 km horizontal resolution over the Euro-Mediterranean marine and continental region for the 2003-2009 period. The product is based on the total AOD from AQUA/MODIS, apportioned into sulfates, black and organic carbon from the MACC reanalysis, and into dust and sea-salt aerosols from RegCM-4 simulations, which are distributed vertically based on CALIOP climatology.We extend the 2003-2009 reconstruction to the past up to 1979 using the 2003-2009 average and applying the decreasing trend in sulfate aerosols from LMDz-OR-INCA, whose AOD trends over Europe and the Mediterranean are median among the ACCMIP models. Finally optical properties of the different aerosol types in this region are proposed from Mie calculations so that this reconstruction can be included in regional climate models for aerosol radiative forcing and aerosol-climate studies.

troposphere↗

Crushing behaviors of unidirectional carbon fiber reinforced plastic composites under dynamic bending and axial crushing loading

The dynamic crushing characteristics of unidirectional carbon fiber reinforced plastic composites under two loading types, dynamic three-point bending and axial crushing, are investigated by experiment and finite element simulation. Hat section samples with two different layup orientations are tested at various impact velocities to investigate its effects. The experiment results show that delamination plays a critical role in dynamic bending deformation. Different layup orientations lead to similar crushing bending behaviors, but remarkable variations in delamination pattern evolutions. In contrast, layup orientation exerts more significant effects on failure modes and energy absorption in axial crushing. A finite element model with multiple layers of thick shell element and cohesive element is established, and simulations are performed for both dynamic three-point bending and axial crushing. The model can capture the crushing behaviors in the two loading types reasonably well. The damage evolution and energy absorption through various mechanisms at different loading conditions are discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High energy X-ray diffraction study of the relationship between the macroscopic mechanical properties and microstructure of irradiated HT-9 steel

Samples harvested from an HT-9 fuel test assembly (ACO-3) irradiated for six years in the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) reaching 2–147 dpa at 382–504°C were deformed in-situ while collecting high-energy X-ray diffraction data to monitor microstructure evolution. With the initiation of plastic deformation, all samples exhibited a clear load transfer from the ferrite matrix to carbide particulate. This behavior was confirmed by modeling of the control material. The evolution of dislocation density in the material as a result of deformation was characterized through full pattern line profile analysis. The dislocation densities increased substantially after deformation, the level of dislocation evolution observed was highly dependent upon the irradiation temperature of the sample. The differences in both the yield and hardening behavior between samples irradiated at higher and lower temperatures suggest the existence of a transition in tensile behavior at an irradiation temperature near 420°C dividing regions of distinct damage effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimal allocation of series FACTS devices in large‐scale systems

Series flexible AC transmission systems devices, such as the variable series reactor, have the ability to continuously regulate the transmission line reactance so as to control power flow. This study presents a new approach to optimally locating such devices in the transmission network considering multiple operating states and contingencies. To investigate optimal investment, a single target year planning with three different load patterns is considered. The transmission contingencies may occur under any of the three load conditions and the coupling constraints between base case and contingencies are included. A reformulation technique transforms the original mixed integer non‐linear programming model into mixed integer linear programming model. To further relieve the computational burden and enable the planning model to be directly applied to practical large‐scale systems, a two‐phase decomposition algorithm is introduced. Detailed numerical simulation results on IEEE 118‐bus system and the Polish 2383‐bus system illustrate the efficient performance of the proposed algorithm.

Zhang, Xiaohu↗

Detection of regional air pollution episodes utilizing satellite data in the visual range

A comparative analysis of satellite-observed haze patterns and ground-based aerosol measurements is carried out for July 20-23, 1978. During this period, a significant regional air pollution episode existed across the northeastern United States, accompanied by widespread haze, reduced surface visibility, and elevated sulfate levels measured by the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE) network. The results show that the satellite-observed haze patterns correlate closely with the area of reported low surface visibility (less than 4 mi) and high sulfate levels. Quantitative information on total aerosol loading derived from the satellite-digitized data, using an atmospheric radiative transfer model, agrees well with the results obtained from the ground-based measurements.

Bowley, C. J.↗

Acoustic radiation from a thin airfoil in nonuniform subsonic flows

Noise resulting from the interaction of a three dimensional gust is modeled directly from unsteady aerodynamic codes. This paper provides bench mark results for the case of a thin airfoil for comparison with the more complex case of a loaded airfoil. It is shown that the acoustic pressure pattern strongly depends on the value of a certain reduced frequency. The effects of an oblique gust are examined and shown to significantly reduce the acoustic power for certain gust parameters range. The Acoustic power versus the gust frequency exhibits a maximum. High frequency and non-compact source effects are also investigated.

Atassi, H. M.↗

Testing and Analysis of Composite Skin/Stringer Debonding Under Multi-Axial Loading

A consistent step-wise approach is presented to investigate the damage mechanism in composite bonded skin/stringer constructions under uniaxial and biaxial (in-plane/out-of-plane) loading conditions. The approach uses experiments to detect the failure mechanism, computational stress analysis to determine the location of first matrix cracking and computational fracture mechanics to investigate the potential for delamination growth. In a first step, tests were performed on specimens, which consisted of a tapered composite flange, representing a stringer or frame, bonded onto a composite skin. Tests were performed under monotonic loading conditions in tension, three-point bending, and combined tension/bending to evaluate the debonding mechanisms between the skin and the bonded stringer. For combined tension/bending testing, a unique servohydraulic load frame was used that was capable of applying both in-plane tension and out-of-plane bending loads simultaneously. Specimen edges were examined on the microscope to document the damage occurrence and to identify typical damage patterns. For all three load cases, observed failure initiated in the flange, near the flange tip, causing the flange to almost fully debond from skin. In a second step, a two dimensional plane-strain finite element model was developed to analyze the different test cases using a geometrically nonlinear solution. For all three loading conditions, computed principal stresses exceeded the transverse strength of the material in those areas of the flange where the matrix cracks had developed during the tests. In a third step, delaminations of various lengths were simulated in two locations where delaminations were observed during the tests. The analyses showed that at the loads corresponding to matrix ply crack initiation computed strain energy release rates exceeded the values obtained from a mixed mode failure criterion in one location, Hence. Unstable delamination propagation is likely to occur as observed in the experiments.

Krueger, Ronald↗

Coolant Density and Control Blade History Effects in Extended BWR Burnup Credit

Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission have initiated a multiyear project to investigate the application of burnup credit (BUC) for boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel in storage and transportation casks. This project includes two phases. The first phase investigates the applicability of peak reactivity methods currently used for spent fuel pools to spent fuel storage and transportation casks and the validation of reactivity (k eff ) calculations and predicted spent fuel compositions. The second phase focuses on extending BUC beyond peak reactivity. This paper documents work performed to date investigating some aspects of extended BUC. (The technical basis for application of peak reactivity methods to BWR fuel in storage and transportation systems is presented in a companion paper.) Two reactor operating parameters are being evaluated to establish an adequate basis for extended BWR BUC: (1) the effect of axial void profile and (2) the effect of control blade utilization during operation. A detailed analysis of core simulator data for one cycle of a modern operating BWR plant was performed to determine the range of void profiles and the variability of the profile experienced during irradiation. Although a single cycle does not provide complete data, the data obtained are sufficient to determine the primary effects and to identify conservative modeling approaches. These data were used in a study of the effect of axial void profile. The first stage of the study was determination of the necessary moderator density temporal fidelity in depletion modeling. After the required temporal fidelity was established, multiple void profiles were used to examine the effect on cask reactivity. The results of these studies are being used to develop recommendations for conservatively modeling the void profile effects for BWR depletion calculations. The second operational parameter studied was control blade history. Control blades are inserted in various locations and at varying degrees during BWR operation based on the core loading pattern. When present during depletion, control blades harden the neutron spectrum locally because they displace the moderator and absorb thermal neutrons. The investigation of the effect of control blades on post operational cask reactivity is documented herein, as is the effect of multiple (continuous and intermittent) exposure periods with control blades inserted. The coupled effects of control blade presence on power density, void profile, or burnup profile will be addressed in future work.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Coolant density and control blade history effects in extended BWR burnup credit - 14494

Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission have initiated a multiyear project to investigate the application of burnup credit (BUC) for boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel in storage and transportation casks. This project includes two phases. The first phase investigates the applicability of peak reactivity methods currently used for spent fuel pools to spent fuel storage and transportation casks and the validation of reactivity (k{sub eff}) calculations and predicted spent fuel compositions. The second phase focuses on extending BUC beyond peak reactivity. This paper documents work performed to date investigating some aspects of extended BUC. The technical basis for application of peak reactivity methods to BWR fuel in storage and transportation systems is presented in a companion paper. Two reactor operating parameters are being evaluated to establish an adequate basis for extended BWR BUC: (1) the effect of axial void profile and (2) the effect of control blade utilization during operation. A detailed analysis of core simulator data for one cycle of a modern operating BWR plant was performed to determine the range of void profiles and the variability of the profile experienced during irradiation. Although a single cycle does not provide complete data, the data obtained are sufficient to determine the primary effects and to identify conservative modeling approaches. These data were used in a study of the effect of axial void profile. The first stage of the study was determination of the necessary moderator density temporal fidelity in depletion modeling. After the required temporal fidelity was established, multiple void profiles were used to examine the effect on cask reactivity. The results of these studies are being used to develop recommendations for conservatively modeling the void profile effects for BWR depletion calculations. The second operational parameter studied was control blade history. Control blades are inserted in various locations and at varying degrees during BWR operation based on the core loading pattern. When present during depletion, control blades harden the neutron spectrum locally because they displace the moderator and absorb thermal neutrons. The investigation of the effect of control blades on post operational cask reactivity is documented herein, as is the effect of multiple (continuous and intermittent) exposure periods with control blades inserted. The coupled effects of control blade presence on power density, void profile, or burnup profile will be addressed in future work. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Development of a Subcell Based Modeling Approach for Modeling the Architecturally Dependent Impact Response of Triaxially Braided Polymer Matrix Composites

Understanding the high velocity impact response of polymer matrix composites with complex architectures is critical to many aerospace applications, including engine fan blade containment systems where the structure must be able to completely contain fan blades in the event of a blade-out. Despite the benefits offered by these materials, the complex nature of textile composites presents a significant challenge for the prediction of deformation and damage under both quasi-static and impact loading conditions. The relatively large mesoscale repeating unit cell (in comparison to the size of structural components) causes the material to behave like a structure rather than a homogeneous material. Impact experiments conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center have shown the damage patterns to be a function of the underlying material architecture. Traditional computational techniques that involve modeling these materials using smeared homogeneous, orthotropic material properties at the macroscale result in simulated damage patterns that are a function of the structural geometry, but not the material architecture. In order to preserve heterogeneity at the highest length scale in a robust yet computationally efficient manner, and capture the architecturally dependent damage patterns, a previously-developed subcell modeling approach where the braided composite unit cell is approximated as a series of four adjacent laminated composites is utilized. This work discusses the implementation of the subcell methodology into the commercial transient dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA (Livermore Software Technology Corp.). Verification and validation studies are also presented, including simulation of the tensile response of straight-sided and notched quasi-static coupons composed of a T700/PR520 triaxially braided [0deg/60deg/-60deg] composite. Based on the results of the verification and validation studies, advantages and limitations of the methodology as well as plans for future work are discussed.

finite element method↗

A micromechanics model of the stiffness and strength of laminates with fiber waviness

A mathematical model based on the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is proposed for predicting the effective Young's moduli of piecewise isotropic composite laminates with local ply curvatures in the main load-carrying layers. Strains in corrugated layers, In-Phase layers, Out-of-Phase layers are predicted for various geometries and material configurations by assuming matrix layers as elastic foundations of different spring constants. The effective Young's moduli measured from corrugated aluminum specimens and aluminum/epoxy specimens with In-Phase and Out-of-Phase wavy patterns coincide very well with the model predictions. Moire fringe analysis of an In-Phase specimen and an Out-of-Phase specimen are also presented confirming the main assumption of the model related to the elastic constraint due to the matrix layers. The present model is also compared with the experimental results and other models, including the micro-buckling models, published in the literature. The results of the present study show that even a very small scale local ply curvature produces a noticeable effect on the mechanical constitutive behavior of a laminated composite.

Harris, Charles E.↗

Human Initiated Cascading Failures in Societal Infrastructures

In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of human-initiated cascading failures in three critical inter-dependent societal infrastructures due to behavioral adaptations in response to a crisis. We focus on three closely coupled socio-technical networks here: (i) cellular and mesh networks, (ii) transportation networks and (iii) mobile call networks. In crises, changes in individual behaviors lead to altered travel, activity and calling patterns, which influence the transport network and the loads on wireless networks. The interaction between these systems and their co-evolution poses significant technical challenges for representing and reasoning about these systems. In contrast to system dynamics models for studying these interacting infrastructures, we develop interaction-based models in which individuals and infrastructure elements are represented in detail and are placed in a common geographic coordinate system. Using the detailed representation, we study the impact of a chemical plume that has been released in a densely populated urban region. Authorities order evacuation of the affected area, and this leads to individual behavioral adaptation wherein individuals drop their scheduled activities and drive to home or pre-specified evacuation shelters as appropriate. They also revise their calling behavior to communicate and coordinate among family members. These two behavioral adaptations cause flash-congestion in the urban transport network and the wireless network. The problem is exacerbated with a few, already occurring, road closures. We analyze how extended periods of unanticipated road congestion can result in failure of infrastructures, starting with the servicing base stations in the congested area. A sensitivity analysis on the compliance rate of evacuees shows non-intuitive effect on the spatial distribution of people and on the loading of the base stations. For example, an evacuation compliance rate of 70% results in higher number of overloaded base stations than the evacuation compliance rate of 90%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A global model of carbon-nutrient interactions

The global biogeochemical model presented has two primary objectives. First, it characterizes natural elemental cycles and their linkages for the four elements significant to Earth's biota: C, N, S, and P. Second, it describes changes in these cycles due to human activity. Global nutrient cycles were studied within the drainage basins of several major world rivers on each continent. The initial study region was the Mississippi drainage basin, concentrating on carbon and nitrogen. The model first establishes the nutrient budgets of the undisturbed ecosystems in a study region. It then uses a data set of land use histories for that region to document the changes in these budgets due to land uses. Nutrient movement was followed over time (1800 to 1980) for 30 ecosystems and 10 land use categories. A geographically referenced ecological information system (GREIS) was developed to manage the digital global data bases of 0.5 x 0.5 grid cells needed to run the model: potential vegetation, drainage basins, precipitation, runoff, contemporary land cover, and FAO soil maps of the world. The results show the contributions of land use categories to river nutrient loads on a continental scale; shifts in nutrient cycling patterns from closed, steady state systems to mobile transient or open, steady state systems; soil organic matter depletion patterns in U.S. agricultural lands; changing nutrient ratios due to land use changes; and the effect of using heavy fertilizer on aquatic systems.

Moore, Berrien, III↗