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At least 199 records · Page 11

Challenges in Rotor Aerodynamic Modeling for Non-Uniform Inflow Conditions

Within an international collaboration framework, the accuracy of rotor aerodynamic models used for design load calculations of wind turbines is being assessed. Where the use of high-fidelity computation fluid dynamics (CFD) and mid-fidelity free-vortex wake (FVW) models has become commonplace within the wind energy community, these still fail to meet the requirements in terms of execution time and computational cost needed for design load calculations. The fast but engineering fidelity blade-element/momentum (BEM) method can therefore still be considered the industry workhorse for design load simulations. At the same time, upscaling of wind turbine rotors makes inflow non-uniformities (e.g. shear, veer, turbulence) more important. The objective of this work is to assess model accuracy in non-uniform inflow conditions, which violate several BEM assumptions. Thereto a comparison in turbulent inflow has been executed including a wide variety of codes, focusing on the DanAero field measurements, where a 2.3-MW turbine was equipped with, among other sensors, a pressure measurement apparatus. The results indicate that, although average load patterns are in good agreement, this does not hold for the unsteady loads that drive fatigue damage and aero-elastic stability. A simplified comparison round in vertical shear was initiated to investigate the observed differences in a more controlled manner. A consistent offset in load amplitude was observed between CFD and free-vortex codes on the one hand and BEM-type codes on the other hand. To shed more light on the observations, dedicated efforts are ongoing to pinpoint the cause for these differences, in the end leading to guidelines for an improved BEM implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Residential Mechanical Precooling

Residential air conditioning (AC) represents a challenging load for many electric utilities with poor load factors. Mechanical precooling improves the load factor by shifting cooling operation from on-peak to off-peak hours. This provides benefits to utilities and the electricity grid, as well as to occupants who can take advantage of time-of-use (TOU) electricity rates. Performance benefits stem from reduced compressor cycling, and shifting condensing unit operation to earlier periods of the day when outdoor temperatures are more favorable to operational efficiency. Finding solutions that save energy and reduce demand on the electricity grid is an important national objective and supports key Building America goals. The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation team evaluated mechanical AC precooling strategies in homes throughout the United States. EnergyPlus modeling was used to evaluate two homes with different performance characteristics in seven climates. Results are applicable to new construction homes and most existing homes built in the last 10 years, as well as fairly efficient retrofitted homes. A successful off-peak AC strategy offers the potential for increased efficiency and improved occupant comfort, and promotes a more reliable and robust electricity grid. Demand response capabilities and further integration with photovoltaic TOU generation patterns provide additional opportunities to flatten loads and optimize grid impacts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (‘stochastic’) model with the weather forecast model (‘deterministic’) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

uncertainty analysis, wind generation forecast, wa↗

A Global Building Occupant Behavior Database

This paper introduces a database of 34 field-measured building occupant behavior datasets collected from 15 countries and 39 institutions across 10 climatic zones covering various building types in both commercial and residential sectors. This is a comprehensive global database about building occupant behavior. The database includes occupancy patterns (i.e., presence and people count) and occupant behaviors (i.e., interactions with devices, equipment, and technical systems in buildings). Brick schema models were developed to represent sensor and room metadata information. The database is publicly available, and a website was created for the public to access, query, and download specific datasets or the whole database interactively. The database can help to advance the knowledge and understanding of realistic occupancy patterns and human-building interactions with building systems (e.g., light switching, set-point changes on thermostats, fans on/off, etc.) and envelopes (e.g., window opening/closing). With these more realistic inputs of occupants’ schedules and their interactions with buildings and systems, building designers, energy modelers, and consultants can improve the accuracy of building energy simulation and building load forecasting.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Deep Learning-Based Data Forgery Detection in Automatic Generation Control

Automatic Generation Control (AGC) is a key control system in the power grid. It is used to calculate the Area Control Error (ACE) based on frequency and tie-line power flow between balancing areas, and then adjust power generation to maintain the power system frequency in an acceptable range. However, attackers might inject malicious frequency or tie-line power flow measurements to mislead AGC to do false generation correction which will harm the power grid operation. Such attacks are hard to be detected since they do not violate physical power system models. In this work, we propose algorithms based on Neural Network and Fourier Transform to detect data forgery attacks in AGC. Different from the few previous work that rely on accurate load prediction to detect data forgery, our solution only uses the ACE data already available in existing AGC systems. In particular, our solution learns the normal patterns of ACE time series and detects abnormal patterns caused by artificial attacks. Evaluations on the real ACE dataset show that our methods have high detection accuracy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Coupled geomechanics and flow modeling of thermally induced compaction in heavy oil diatomite reservoirs under cyclic steaming

We report shallow, heavy oil diatomite reservoirs produced using cyclic steaming are often associated with significant subsidence. In cases where the pore pressure is not allowed to deplete noticeably, observed subsidence suggests a mechanism other than pressure decline is responsible. We perform coupled flow and geomechanics modeling to determine whether thermally induced compaction of the reservoir rock could play an important role in subsidence. First, we model laboratory-scale tests on diatomite samples subjected to mechanical and thermal loads. During these tests, substantial non-recoverable thermal compaction was measured. Using the modified Cam-clay model as a basis, thermally induced compaction is implemented by reducing the size of the yield surface as a function of temperature. This leads to a satisfactory modeling of the test results. Second, this new approach is used to model a symmetric pattern of wells in a generic heavy oil diatomite field produced using cyclic steaming. Results from simulations that consider or neglect thermally induced diatomite compaction show that thermal effects can potentially induce significant inelastic pore volume reduction and substantial subsidence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

XPRESS: eXascale PRogramming Environment and System Software

The XPRESS project is the research and development of a complete software architecture for Exascale computing. The four major R&D thrusts include: 1) an Exascale lightweight kernel operating system (LXK), based on the Kitten operating system (OS), to manage billion way hardware parallelism, management of faults and power, management of global virtual name space, and other features of future system architectures; 2) a runtime system (HPX-5), co-designed with LXK, based on the ParalleX execution model that supports dynamic resource management and task scheduling; 3) system interfaces for interoperability between the runtime system and both the OS and the runtime system (RIOS); 4) compilation strategies and systems to translate MPI and OpenMP legacy codes to a form that can be run with performance at least as good as a native code implementation. The software architecture development has been driven by performance evaluation of mini-applications developed at Department of Energy Co-Design Centers as well as ancillary in-house developed applications and benchmarks. Research on the ParalleX execution model has been driven by the development of formal semantics and model checkers for the execution model. The major components of the software architecture are: ParalleX execution model – guiding principles for co-design of components of the system stack with advances in locality management and task prioritization through introspection; HPX runtime system – support of application dynamic adaptive resource management, task scheduling, and introspective control policies; LXK operating system – lightweight kernel operating system for order-constant scalability and low/no noise to manage resources; RIOS – a realm of Exascale system operation unique in the XPRESS project that includes the relationship between the new generation of lightweight kernel operating systems and runtime system software; XPI advanced programming model – intermediate form and low-level (readable) programming interface reflecting the ParalleX model, providing a target for source-to- source high level parallel language translation, and supporting early direct programming experimentation and measurement; Performance models & metrics – providing parameters and their mutual sensitivities to guide co-design and quantify operational behavior; Legacy migration – ensuring seamless transition of legacy codes and programming methods to the future generation of ParalleX-based Exascale systems; . Experiments and evaluation – critical to determining degree of effectiveness and likelihood of ultimate success as well as guiding corrective design changes to achieve DOE objectives; and Applications – collaborations with Co-Design Centers and other mission critical codes. The exemplar implementation of the ParalleX execution model, HPX-5, has been released along with five fully ported applications (LULESH, HPCG, SSSP, WAMR, and DASHMM) and multiple microbenchmarks. Using these applications, the system architecture demonstrated dynamic load balancing through active migration, legacy code migration, and data-driven approaches to for graph-like applications. Crucially for Exascale and billion way parallelism, the needs and patterns of irregular applications in HPX-5 were addressed using local flow control rather than relying on globally synchronized data structures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The physics of desiccation cracks 2: Modeling and prediction of the crack patterns

Here, this paper extends the experimental results of our companion paper by modeling and predicting the onset and pattern formation of desiccation cracks in geomaterials (Ruoyu et al., 2023). Thin-layer silt samples in controlled atmospheric conditions were tested to obtain the surface strain maps with the digital image correlation (DIC) method during dehydration. Support experiments, including consolidation and displacement-controlled triaxial tests, were conducted for the properties of geomaterials. These experimental results were used to validate a viscoplastic theoretical model by comparing cracks and singularities locations that distribute following the Cnoidal wave pattern. A critical value exists in the viscoplastic model that determines the number of singularities, which accurately predicts the number of cracks in the experiment. The critical values contain two crucial parameters: rate sensitivity and λ. Rate sensitivity describes the rate-dependent stress–strain relation, while λ shows the ability of pore pressure redistribution under the external mechanical loading rate. These results provide a new view to analyze the desiccation cracks considering the rate-dependent viscoplasticity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Feeder Power Disaggregation: A Data-Efficient Matrix Completion Approach

This paper presents a data-driven algorithm for the feeder power disaggregation problem in distribution systems. Leveraging spatio-temporal power patterns in residential homes, residential power is discomposed into three components: sparse-switching loads, periodic loads, and photovoltaic (PV) generation, which are characterized through the design of two sparse matrices and a low-rank matrix. The matrix completion process is data-efficient because of the matrix sparsity and low rankness, along with the use of power system models. The proposed approach is tested using real-world residential data set on a 33-bus distribution system, demonstrating accurate power disaggregation with efficient matrix completion.

distribution system↗

Impacts of Mode Mixity on Controlled Spalling of (100)-Oriented Germanium

Controlled spalling is a technology to prepare single-crystal thin films of semiconductors by fracture with a subsurface crack propagating nearly parallel to the substrate surface. Practical applications require uniform thickness and a smooth surface across the whole film. Both wafer-scale and patterned-stressor-defined small-area spalling of germanium substrates are conducted experimentally and numerically. River line features are observed on spalled surfaces close to lateral edges of the spall, regardless of the spall direction and the size of the spalled area. Three-dimensional finite element method modeling shows the river lines are caused by mixed mode I?+?III loading near the lateral edges of spall and predicts a spall depth variation near the lateral edges of spall due to mixed mode I?+?II loading. The absolute range of river lines increases with lateral size of spall, while the relative range of river lines decreases, consistent with variations in mode mixity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Numerical simulation of buoyancy-driven turbulent ventilation in attic space under winter conditions

Attic design and construction have significant impacts on residential buildings’ energy performance. In order to understand how passive ventilation rates affect ridge-vent attic's performance, a two-dimensional steady-state finite volume model is employed to simulate the buoyancy-driven turbulent ventilation and heat transfer in a triangular attic space of a gable-roof residential building under winter conditions. The modeled attic has a pitch of 5/12 and a passive ventilation system, consisting of continuous ridge and soffit vents. The v2f model is used to analyze the turbulent air flow and natural convection heat transfer inside the attic. The effects of ambient air temperature, vent size, and ceiling insulation on heating load and ice dam formation are investigated. The thermal performance of the vented attic is compared with a sealed attic as well. Here, the simulation results reveal that symmetrical air flow patterns exist in a vented attic, in contrast to the asymmetrical air flow patterns found in a sealed attic. In addition, it is suggested that increasing vent size results in higher ventilation air flow rate but barely affects the attic heating load, and that both sufficient ventilation and insulation are needed to ensure the proper functions of the attic and its energy efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Coastal Ohio Wind Project

The Coastal Ohio Wind Project intends to address problems that impede deployment of wind turbines in the coastal and offshore regions of Northern Ohio. The project evaluates different wind turbine designs and the potential impact of offshore turbines on migratory and resident birds by developing multidisciplinary research, which involves wildlife biology, electrical and mechanical engineering, and geospatial science. Firstly, the project conducts cost and performance studies of two- and three-blade wind turbines using a turbine design suited for the Great Lakes. The numerical studies comprised an analysis and evaluation of the annual energy production of two- and three-blade wind turbines to determine the levelized cost of energy. This task also involved wind tunnel studies of model wind turbines to quantify the wake flow field of upwind and downwind wind turbine-tower arrangements. The experimental work included a study of a scaled model of an offshore wind turbine platform in a water tunnel. The levelized cost of energy work consisted of the development and application of a cost model to predict the cost of energy produced by a wind turbine system placed offshore. The analysis found that a floating two-blade wind turbine presents the most cost effective alternative for the Great Lakes. The load effects studies showed that the two-blade wind turbine model experiences less torque under all IEC Standard design load cases considered. Other load effects did not show this trend and depending on the design load cases, the two-bladed wind turbine showed higher or lower load effects. The experimental studies of the wake were conducted using smoke flow visualization and hot wire anemometry. Flow visualization studies showed that in the downwind turbine configuration the wake flow was insensitive to the presence of the blade and was very similar to that of the tower alone. On the other hand, in the upwind turbine configuration, increasing the rotor blade angle of attack reduced the wake size and enhanced the vortices in the flow downstream of the turbine-tower compared with the tower alone case. Mean and rms velocity distributions from hot wire anemometer data confirmed that in a downwind configuration, the wake of the tower dominates the flow, thus the flow fields of a tower alone and tower-turbine combinations are nearly the same. For the upwind configuration, the mean velocity shows a narrowing of the wake compared with the tower alone case. The downwind configuration wake persisted longer than that of an upwind configuration; however, it was not possible to quantify this difference because of the size limitation of the wind tunnel downstream of the test section. The water tunnel studies demonstrated that the scale model studies could be used to adequately produce accurate motions to model the motions of a wind turbine platform subject to large waves. It was found that the important factors that affect the platform is whether the platform is submerged or surface piercing. In the former, the loads on the platform will be relatively reduced whereas in the latter case, the structure pierces the wave free surface and gains stiffness and stability. The other important element that affects the movement of the platform is depth of the sea in which the wind turbine will be installed. Furthermore, the wildlife biology component evaluated migratory patterns by different monitoring systems consisting of marine radar, thermal IR camera and acoustic recorders. The types of radar used in the project are weather surveillance radar and marine radar. The weather surveillance radar (1988 Doppler), also known as Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD), provides a network of weather stations in the US. Data generated from this network were used to understand general migratory patterns, migratory stopover habitats, and other patterns caused by the effects of weather conditions. At a local scale our marine radar was used to complement the datasets from NEXRAD and to collect additional monitoring parameters such as passage rates, flight paths, flight directions, and flight altitudes of nocturnal migrating species. Our work focused on the design and development of custom built marine radar that used t-bar and parabolic dish antennas. The marine radar used in the project was Furuno (XANK250) which was coupled with a XIR3000B digitizing card from Russell Technologies for collection of the radar data. The radar data was processed by open source radR processing software using different computational techniques and methods. Additional data from thermal IR imaging cameras were collected to detect heat emitted from objects and provide information on movements of birds and bats, data which we used for different animal flight behavior analysis. Lastly, the data from the acoustic recorders were used to provide the number of bird calls for assessing patterns and peak passage rates during migration. The development of the geospatial database included collection of different data sources that are used to support offshore wind turbine development. Many different data sets were collected and organized using initial version of web-based repository software tools that can accommodate distribution of rectified pertinent data sets such as the lake depth, lake bottom engineering parameters, extent of ice, navigation pathways, wind speed, important bird habitats, fish efforts and other layers that are relevant for supporting robust offshore wind turbine developments. Additional geospatial products developed during the project included few different prototypes for offshore wind farm suitability which can involve different stakeholders and participants for solving complex planning problems and building consensus. Some of the prototypes include spatial decision support system (SDSS) for collaborative decision making, a web-based Participatory Geographic Information System (PGIS) framework for evaluating importance of different decision alternatives using different evaluation criteria, and an Android application for collection of field data using mobile and tablet devices . In summary, the simulations of two- and three-blade wind turbines suggested that two-bladed machines could produce comparable annual energy as the three-blade wind turbines but have a lighter tower top weight, which leads to lower cost of energy. In addition, the two-blade rotor configuration potentially costs 20% less than a three blade configuration that produces the same power at the same site. The cost model analysis predicted a potential cost savings of approximately 15% for offshore two-blade wind turbines. The foundation design for a wind turbine in Lake Erie is likely to be driven by ice loads based on the currently available ice data and ice mechanics models. Hence, for Lake Eire, the cost savings will be somewhat smaller than the other lakes in the Great Lakes. Considering the size of cranes and vessels currently available in the Great Lakes, the cost optimal wind turbine size should be 3 MW, not larger. The surveillance data from different monitoring systems suggested that bird and bat passage rates per hour were comparable during heavy migrations in both spring and fall seasons while passage rates were significantly correlated to wind directions and wind speeds. The altitude of migration was higher during heavy migrations and higher over water relative to over land. Notable portions of migration on some spring nights occurred parallel the shoreline, often moving perpendicular to southern winds. The birds approaching the Western basin have a higher propensity to cross than birds approaching the Central basin of Lake Erie and as such offshore turbine development might be a better option further east towards Cleveland than in the Western basin. The high stopover density was more strongly associated with migration volume the following night rather than the preceding night. The processed mean scalar wind speeds with temporal resolutions as fine as 10-minute intervals near turbine height showed that August is the month with the weakest winds while December is the month, which typically has the strongest winds. The ice data suggests that shallow western basin of Lake Erie has higher ice cover duration many times exceeding 90 days during some winters.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

On the Formalization of Development and Assessment Process for Digital Twins in the Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System

In recent years, the autonomous control system has been encouraged in advanced reactors for restoring economic viability, simplifying the operation and maintenance, and enabling remote-site power generations [1]. Since the reactor is expected to be operated for a long period of time with a limited number of individuals onsite, it is recommended that the autonomous control system should have access to very realistic models of the state of processes in the whole lifecycle, together with these process behaviors in interaction with their environment in the real world. As a result, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested in autonomous control systems. DT is defined as a digital representation of a physical object or system, which contains a record for the histories of loads, operation and maintenance status, predictions for the near-term transient of important state variables, and decision-making process [2]. Since machine learning (ML) can recognize patterns within a complex system in real-time applications, it has been used to build DTs in the autonomous control systems for advanced reactors. Meanwhile, due to the rareness of operation data in accident scenarios, the development and assessment of DTs is expected to be mainly driven by simulations. Although the capability and feasibility of ML-based DTs are recognized in improving the safety and efficiency of reactor control, a major concern from the regulatory commission and the nuclear industry is whether the information from a DT is developed and assessed in accordance with expectation and requirements by the target decision. Such concerns not only affect the acceptance criteria for DTs, but also values that can be extracted from DTs and autonomous control system during operations. Inspired by the success of formal methods in improving the reliability and robustness of computer programming and software development, it is suggested that the development and assessment process (DAP) for both separate DTs and integral control system should be formalized in a transparent, consistent, and improvable manner. In this study, a digital-twin development and assessment process (DT-DAP) is proposed by adapting the evaluation model development and assessment process (EMDAP) [3] to requirements by the autonomous control system, ML algorithms, and DT technology. To demonstrate the framework, a baseline nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system with ML-based DTs for diagnosis and prognosis is developed and assessed based on the framework. It is found that with selected testing methods and techniques, the DT-DAP can help identify errors in DTs and NAMAC which would otherwise be left unverified. Meanwhile, it is found that the DT-DAP can improve the DTs and NAMAC by continuously learning and iterating through different elements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Effects of overstory composition and prescribed fire on fuel loading across a heterogeneous managed landscape in the southeastern USA.

In the southeastern USA, land use history, forest management and natural geomorphic features have created heterogeneous fuel loads. This apparent temporal and spatial variation in fuel loads make it difficult to reliably assess potential fire behavior from remotely sensed canopy variables to determine risk and to prescribe treatments. We examined this variation by exploring the relationships between overstory forest vegetation attributes, recent fire history, and selected surface fuel components across an 80,000 ha contiguous landscape. Measurements of dead and live vegetation components of surface fuels were obtained from 624 permanent plots, or about 1 plot per 100 ha of forest cover. Within forest vegetation groups, we modeled the relationship between individual surface fuel components and overstory stand age, basal area, site quality and recent fire history, then stochastically predicted fuel loads across the landscape using the same linkage variables. The fraction of the plot variation, i.e., R2, explained by predictive models for individual fuel components ranged from 0.05 to 0.66 for dead fuels and 0.03 to 0.97 for live fuels in pine dominated vegetation groups. Stand age and basal area were generally more important than recent fire history for predicting fuel loads. Mapped fuel loads using these regressor variables showed a very heterogeneous landscape even at the scale of a few square kilometers. The mapped patterns corresponded to stand based forest management disturbances that are reflected in age, basal area, and fire history. Recent fire history was significant in explaining variation in litter and duff biomass. Stand basal area was positively and consistently related to dead fuel biomass in most groups and was present in many predictive equations. Patterns in live fuel biomass were related to recent fire history, but the patterns were not consistent among forest vegetation groups. Age and basal area were related to live fuels in a complex manner that is likely confounded with periodic disturbances that disrupt stand dynamics. This study complements earlier hazardous fuels research in the southeastern USA, and indicates that succession, disturbance, site quality and decomposition interact with forest management practices to create variable spatial and temporal conditions. The inclusion of additional land use, disturbance history, and soil-topographic variables coupled to improved sampling methods may increase precision and subsequent fuel mapping.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Catch bond kinetics are instrumental to cohesion of fire ant rafts under load

Dynamic networks composed of constituents that break and reform bonds reversibly are ubiquitous in nature owing to their modular architectures that enable functions like energy dissipation, self-healing, and even activity. While bond breaking depends only on the current configuration of attachment in these networks, reattachment depends also on the proximity of constituents. Therefore, dynamic networks composed of macroscale constituents (not benefited by the secondary interactions cohering analogous networks composed of molecular-scale constituents) must rely on primary bonds for cohesion and self-repair. Toward understanding how such macroscale networks might adaptively achieve this, we explore the uniaxial tensile response of 2D rafts composed of interlinked fire ants ( S. invicta ). Through experiments and discrete numerical modeling, we find that ant rafts adaptively stabilize their bonded ant-to-ant interactions in response to tensile strains, indicating catch bond dynamics. Consequently, low-strain rates that should theoretically induce creep mechanics of these rafts instead induce elastic-like response. Our results suggest that this force-stabilization delays dissolution of the rafts and improves toughness. Nevertheless, above 35 % strain low cohesion and stress localization cause nucleation and growth of voids whose coalescence patterns result from force-stabilization. These voids mitigate structural repair until initial raft densities are restored and ants can reconnect across defects. However mechanical recovery of ant rafts during cyclic loading suggests that—even upon reinstatement of initial densities—ants exhibit slower repair kinetics if they were recently loaded at faster strain rates. These results exemplify fire ants’ status as active agents capable of memory-driven, stimuli-response for potential inspiration of adaptive structural materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. We quantify the potential reduction in bias from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. The approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging from 8 to roughly 150, to capture weather across different seasons. Using 8 stations, one from each climate zone, across the western U.S. results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 7.2°F with respect to a spatially-resolved gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to 2.8°F using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% overestimation of peak building loads during both summer and winter. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. This approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.

Burleyson, Casey D.↗

Towards predicting removal rate and surface roughness during grinding of optical materials

A series of controlled grinding experiments, utilizing loose or fixed abrasives of either alumina or diamond at various particle sizes, were performed on a wide range of optical workpiece materials [single crystals of Al 2 O 3 (sapphire), SiC, Y 3 Al 5 O 12 (YAG), CaF 2 , and LiB 3 O 5 (LBO); a SiO 2 -Al 2 O 3 -P 2 O 5 -Li 2 O glass ceramic (Zerodur); and glasses of SiO 2 :TiO 2 (ULE), SiO 2 (fused silica), and P 2 O 5 -Al 2 O 3 -K 2 O-BaO (Phosphate)]. The material removal rate, surface roughness, and the morphology of surface fractures were measured. Separately, Vickers indentation was performed on the workpieces, and the depths of various crack types as a function of applied load was measured. Single pass grinding experiments showed distinct differences in the spatial pattern of surface fracturing between the loose alumina abrasive (isolated indent-type lateral cracking) and the loose or fixed diamond abrasive (scratch-type elongated lateral cracking). Each of the grinding methods had a removal rate and roughness that scaled with the lateral crack slope, sℓ (i.e. the rate of increase in lateral crack depth with the applied load) of the workpiece material. A grinding model (based on the volumetric removal of lateral cracks accounting for neighboring lateral crack removal efficiency and the fraction of abrasive particles leading to fracture initiation) and a roughness model (based on the depth of lateral cracks or the interface gap between the workpiece and lap) are shown to quantitatively describe the material removal rate and roughness as a function of workpiece material, abrasive size, applied pressure and relative velocity. This broad, multi-process variable grinding model can serve as a predictive tool for estimating grinding rates and surface roughness for various grinding processes on different workpiece materials

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Global Fingerprint of Modern Ice-Mass Loss on 3-D Crustal Motion

Crustal motion generated by rapid ice-mass loss from Earth's glaciers and ice sheets has previously been considered in Global Navigational Satellite System (GNSS) analyses and numerical models across regions of ice retreat. However, the fingerprint of ice-mass loss is not limited to glaciated areas, but is characterized by a global pattern of 3-D crustal deformation. We compute “far-field” vertical and horizontal deformation rates that occurred in response to early 21st century mass flux from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, global glaciers and ice caps, and associated ocean loading. We demonstrate that mass changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet and high latitude glacier systems each generated average crustal motion of 0.1–0.4 mm/yr across much of the Northern Hemisphere, with significant year-to-year variability in magnitude and direction. Horizontal motions associated with ice-mass loss exceed vertical rates in many far-field areas, and both should be considered in future analysis of GNSS measurements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗