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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Current Pressure Transducer Application of Model-based Prognostics Using Steady State Conditions

Prognostics is the process of predicting a system's future states, health degradation/wear, and remaining useful life (RUL). This information plays an important role in preventing failure, reducing downtime, scheduling maintenance, and improving system utility. Prognostics relies heavily on wear estimation. In some components, the sensors used to estimate wear may not be fast enough to capture brief transient states that are indicative of wear. For this reason it is beneficial to be capable of detecting and estimating the extent of component wear using steady-state measurements. This paper details a method for estimating component wear using steady-state measurements, describes how this is used to predict future states, and presents a case study of a current/pressure (I/P) Transducer. I/P Transducer nominal and off-nominal behaviors are characterized using a physics-based model, and validated against expected and observed component behavior. This model is used to map observed steady-state responses to corresponding fault parameter values in the form of a lookup table. This method was chosen because of its fast, efficient nature, and its ability to be applied to both linear and non-linear systems. Using measurements of the steady state output, and the lookup table, wear is estimated. A regression is used to estimate the wear propagation parameter and characterize the damage progression function, which are used to predict future states and the remaining useful life of the system.

Fault Estimation↗
NASA NTRS2015

Convective Enhancement of Icing Roughness Elements in Stagnation Region Flows

To improve existing ice accretion simulation codes, more data regarding ice roughness and its effects on convective heat transfer are required. To build on existing research on this topic, this study used the Vertical Icing Studies Tunnel (VIST) at NASA Glenn Research to model realistic ice roughness in the stagnation region of a NACA 0012 airfoil. Using the VIST, a test plate representing the leading 2% chord of the airfoil was subjected to flows of 7.62 m/s (25 ft/s), 12.19 m/s (40 ft/s), and 16.76 m/s (55 ft/s). The test plate was fitted with 3 surfaces, each with a different representation of ice roughness: 1) a control surface with no ice roughness, 2) a surface with ice roughness with element height scaled by 10x and streamwise rough zone width from the stagnation point scaled by 10x, and 3) a surface with ice roughness with element height scaled by 10x and streamwise rough zone width from the stagnation point scaled by 25x. Temperature data from the tests were recorded using an infrared camera and thermocouples imbedded in the test plate. From the temperature data, a convective heat transfer coefficient map was created for each case. Additional testing was also performed to validate the VIST's flow quality. These tests included five-hole probe and hot-wire probe velocity traces to provide flow visualization and to study boundary layer formation on the various test surfaces. The knowledge gained during the experiments will help improve ice accretion codes by providing heat transfer coefficient validation data and by providing flow visualization data helping understand current and future experiments performed in the VIST.

Icing↗
NASA NTRS2017

Modeling a Packed Bed Reactor Utilizing the Sabatier Process

A numerical model is being developed using Python which characterizes the conversion and temperature profiles of a packed bed reactor (PBR) that utilizes the Sabatier process; the reaction produces methane and water from carbon dioxide and hydrogen. While the specific kinetics of the Sabatier reaction on the RuAl2O3 catalyst pellets are unknown, an empirical reaction rate equation1 is used for the overall reaction. As this reaction is highly exothermic, proper thermal control is of the utmost importance to ensure maximum conversion and to avoid reactor runaway. It is therefore necessary to determine what wall temperature profile will ensure safe and efficient operation of the reactor. This wall temperature will be maintained by active thermal controls on the outer surface of the reactor. Two cylindrical PBRs are currently being tested experimentally and will be used for validation of the Python model. They are similar in design except one of them is larger and incorporates a preheat loop by feeding the reactant gas through a pipe along the center of the catalyst bed. The further complexity of adding a preheat pipe to the model to mimic the larger reactor is yet to be implemented and validated; preliminary validation is done using the smaller PBR with no reactant preheating. When mapping experimental values of the wall temperature from the smaller PBR into the Python model, a good approximation of the total conversion and temperature profile has been achieved. A separate CFD model incorporates more complex three-dimensional effects by including the solid catalyst pellets within the domain. The goal is to improve the Python model to the point where the results of other reactor geometry can be reasonably predicted relatively quickly when compared to the much more computationally expensive CFD approach. Once a reactor size is narrowed down using the Python approach, CFD will be used to generate a more thorough prediction of the reactors performance.

Reactor↗
NASA NTRS2020

Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties and Evolution, From Space-Based Multi-Angle Imaging II: The Williams Flats Fire during the FIREX-AQ Campaign

Although the characteristics of biomass burning events and the ambient ecosystem determine emitted smoke composition, the conditions that modulate the partitioning of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) formation are not well understood, nor are the spatial or temporal frequency of factors driving smoke particle evolution, such as hydration, coagulation, and oxidation, all of which impact smoke radiative forcing. In situ data from surface observation sites and aircraft field campaigns offer deep insight into the optical, chemical, and microphysical traits of biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosols, such as single scattering albedo (SSA) and size distribution, but cannot by themselves provide robust statistical characterization of both emitted and evolved particles. Data from the NASA Earth Observing System’s Multi-Angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument can provide at least a partial picture of BB particle properties and their evolution downwind, once properly validated. Here we use in situ data from the joint NOAA/NASA 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments Experiment-Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign to assess the strengths and limitations of MISR-derived constraints on particle size, shape, light-absorption, and its spectral slope, as well as plume height and associated wind vectors. Based on the satellite observations, we also offer inferences about aging mechanisms effecting downwind particle evolution, such as gravitational settling, oxidation, secondary particle formation, and the combination of particle aggregation and condensational growth. This work builds upon our previous study, adding confidence to our interpretation of the remote-sensing data based on an expanded suite of in situ measurements for validation. The satellite and in situ measurements offer similar characterizations of particle property evolution as a function of smoke age for the 06 August Williams Flats Fire, and most of the key differences in particle size and absorption can be attributed to differences in sampling and changes in the plume geometry between sampling times. Whereas the aircraft data provide validation for the MISR retrievals, the satellite data offer a spatially continuous mapping of particle properties over the plume, which helps identify trends in particle property downwind evolution that are ambiguous in the sparsely sampled aircraft transects. The MISR data record is more than two decades long, offering future opportunities to study regional wildfire plume behavior statistically, where aircraft data are limited or entirely lacking.

biomass burning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Surface Instability of Liquid Propellants in Microgravity During Pulsed Settling Operations

Pulsing reaction control system (RCS) thrusters, vent valves, or other propulsion devices can preserve propellant resources in space, but this operation also effectively introduces a vibration to the vehicle. When the vibration is perpendicular to the liquid propellant surface, Faraday waves may be generated at the liquid-vapor interface. These Faraday instabilities can perturb or break up the liquid surface of cryogenic tanks, leading to inefficiencies in thermal management or even ullage collapse. Drawing from theory and experiments, an engineering model defining the allowable design regions for pulsed settling in microgravity was assembled and verified with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. A traditional settling metric, the Bond number, was also overlaid in the model to indicate which duty cycles were insufficient to overcome surface tension and aggregate propellant. Mission planners and engineers can consult the tool to rapidly evaluate the stability of a liquid-vapor interface given the pulse frequency and the excitation acceleration. Expressions developed for Faraday waves induced by a sinusoidal forcing input at standard gravity were found to provide excellent predictive capabilities for pulsed, or rectangular, waveforms in the absence of a consistent gravitational acceleration. This study extends the usage of these equations to an alternative forcing function and microgravity environments for the purpose of estimating natural frequencies, surface mode shapes, surface wave amplitudes, and the onset of droplet ejection. CFD simulations with the Loci/STREAM-VoF (Volume of Fluid) solver were initially validated against experimental results in standard gravity. Discrete points on the design map were then investigated with CFD and confirmed that the engineering model reliably indicates surface stability and most Faraday wave characteristics without requiring higher-fidelity tools. The engineering model is highly extensible and can be adapted for various propellant fill fractions, fluid properties, and tank sizes.

Faraday Waves↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Surface Instability of Liquid Propellants in Microgravity During Pulsed Settling Operations

Pulsing reaction control system (RCS) thrusters, vent valves, or other propulsion devices can preserve propellant resources in space, but this operation also effectively introduces a vibration to the vehicle. When the vibration is perpendicular to the liquid propellant surface, Faraday waves may be generated at the liquid-vapor interface. These Faraday instabilities can perturb or break up the liquid surface of cryogenic tanks, leading to inefficiencies in thermal management or even ullage collapse. Drawing from theory and experiments, an engineering model defining the allowable design regions for pulsed settling in microgravity was assembled and verified with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. A traditional settling metric, the Bond number, was also overlaid in the model to indicate which duty cycles were insufficient to overcome surface tension and aggregate propellant. Mission planners and engineers can consult the tool to rapidly evaluate the stability of a liquid-vapor interface given the pulse frequency and the excitation acceleration. Expressions developed for Faraday waves induced by a sinusoidal forcing input at standard gravity were found to provide excellent predictive capabilities for pulsed, or rectangular, waveforms in the absence of a consistent gravitational acceleration. This study extends the usage of these equations to an alternative forcing function and microgravity environments for the purpose of estimating natural frequencies, surface mode shapes, surface wave amplitudes, and the onset of droplet ejection. CFD simulations with the Loci/STREAM-VoF (Volume of Fluid) solver were initially validated against experimental results in standard gravity. Discrete points on the design map were then investigated with CFD and confirmed that the engineering model reliably indicates surface stability and most Faraday wave characteristics without requiring higher-fidelity tools. The engineering model is highly extensible and can be adapted for various propellant fill fractions, fluid properties, and tank sizes.

Faraday Waves↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Aerosol Lidar Ratios Over Ocean using MODIS AOD Constrained Retrievals and GOCART Model Simulations

After 17 years, the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission ceased science operations in August 2023. For the final CALIPSO data products release (Version 5), the CALIPSO project seeks to improve the accuracy of its aerosol extinction by advancing knowledge of aerosol lidar ratios (i.e., extinction-to-backscatter ratios; LRs) for various aerosol types. The current algorithm assigns one LR value globally for each of the seven tropospheric aerosol types. The CALIPSO team aims to improve the retrieval algorithm through the development of regional and seasonal LR climatologies for the same aerosol types. In this study, aerosol LRs are inferred through Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) backscatter profiles constrained by collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data over oceans during daytime. This analysis is subsampled for those profiles that are cloud-free and contain only one CALIOP-classified aerosol type. The CALIOP profiles are then collocated with aerosol volume fractions obtained through Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations. This presentation will reveal findings that the 12-year (June 2006-August 2018) mean spatial distributions of inferred aerosol LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols correspond inversely with patterns of GOCART sea salt volume fraction (SSVF). For example, smaller SSVFs (< 65%) and larger LRs (> 55 sr), are found near land masses (Fig. 1). This indicates the influence of advected anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., pollution and biomass burning smoke). In the remote oceans (i.e., regions likely less impacted by non-sea salt aerosols), the SSVFs are larger (> 95%) and the LRs are smaller (< 25 sr) (Fig. 1). A polynomial fit of the MODIS AOD constrained LRs to the corresponding GOCART SSVFs (intersect values of ~58 sr for SSVF of 0% and ~21 sr for SSVF of 100%) is further used to produce model-assisted climatological LR maps on seasonal scales. Additionally, we will show results of a LR validation analysis for which we compare the revised CALIPSO AODs obtained by applying the seasonal/regional constrained LRs against CALIPSO Version 4.51 Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD). While the majority of the presentation will focus on LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols, an overview of LR results will show preliminary results for other aerosol types over ocean, such as dust and elevated smoke. The technique demon-strated in this study highlights the benefits not only to the final planned CALIPSO data release in 2025, but similar methods can be applied to future spaceborne elastic backscatter lidars with collocated passive sensors (e.g., such as those associated with NASA’s proposed Atmosphere Observing System).

Travis D Toth↗
NASA NTRS2001

ESTAR Measurements During the Southern Great Plains Experiment (SGP99)

During the Southern Great Plains experiment, the synthetic aperture radiometer, ESTAR, mapped L-band brightness temperature over a swath about 50 km wide and about 300 km long extending west from Oklahoma City to El Reno and north from the Little Washita River watershed to the Kansas border. ESTAR flew on the NASA P-3B Orion aircraft at an altitude of 7.6 km and maps were made on 7 days between July 8-20, 1999. The brightness temperature maps reflect the patterns of soil moisture expected from rainfall and are consistent with values of soil moisture observed at the research sites within the SGP99 study area and with previous measurements in this area. The data add to the resources for hydrologic modeling in this area and are further validation of the technology represented by ESTAR as a potential path to a future mission to map soil moisture globally from space.

LeVine, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Development and Validation of The SMAP Enhanced Passive Soil Moisture Product

Since the beginning of its routine science operation in March 2015, the NASA SMAP observatory has been returning interference-mitigated brightness temperature observations at L-band (1.41 GHz) frequency from space. The resulting data enable frequent global mapping of soil moisture with a retrieval uncertainty below 0.040 cu m/cu m at a 36 km spatial scale. This paper describes the development and validation of an enhanced version of the current standard soil moisture product. Compared with the standard product that is posted on a 36 km grid, the new enhanced product is posted on a 9 km grid. Derived from the same time-ordered brightness temperature observations that feed the current standard passive soil moisture product, the enhanced passive soil moisture product leverages on the Backus-Gilbert optimal interpolation technique that more fully utilizes the additional information from the original radiometer observations to achieve global mapping of soil moisture with enhanced clarity. The resulting enhanced soil moisture product was assessed using long-term in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites located in diverse biomes and was found to exhibit an average retrieval uncertainty below 0.040 cu m/cu m. As of December 2016, the enhanced soil moisture product has been made available to the public from the NASA Distributed Active Archive Center at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

SMAP Enhanced↗
NASA NTRS2024

Kentucky Disasters: Multi-Hazard Approach to Mapping Flood Susceptibility and Vulnerability in Kentucky

Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster in Kentucky, with major flood events in 2022 and 2023 highlighting the need for flood risk assessment. In partnership with the National Weather Service Jackson and Paducah Forecast Offices and the Kentucky Climate Center, we mapped flood risk in Kentucky using a multi-hazard approach that considered two dimensions of risk: flood susceptibility based on a weighted combination of seven physical factors and flood vulnerability based on 13 socioeconomic and infrastructure factors. We additionally analyzed NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations of surface soil moisture to explore the utility of SMAP observations for future analysis of flood risk. By analyzing flood susceptibility, we found that with equal rainfall, western Kentucky generally displays a higher propensity to flood than eastern Kentucky. In contrast, our flood vulnerability analysis indicated that more vulnerable areas were generally concentrated in the eastern part of the state. Through a combined perspective, our flood risk analysis identified much of the state as having moderate degrees of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. Our parallel analysis of antecedent soil moisture found that SMAP soil moisture levels were variable in the months leading up to each flood event but were drier than normal in the month prior to the 2023 event, as shown by negative soil moisture anomalies. These results were limited by challenges with weighting input parameters and a lack of validation but overall demonstrate the feasibility of using GIS and Earth observations for mapping flood risk and soil moisture.

analytic hierarchy process↗
NASA NTRS2013

Discriminating Phytoplankton Functional Types (PFTs) in the Coastal Ocean Using the Inversion Algorithm Phydotax and Airborne Imaging Spectrometer Data

There is a need in the Biological Oceanography community to discriminate among phytoplankton groups within the bulk chlorophyll pool to understand energy flow through ecosystems, to track the fate of carbon in the ocean, and to detect and monitor-for harmful algal blooms (HABs). The ocean color community has responded to this demand with the development of phytoplankton functional type (PFT) discrimination algorithms. These PFT algorithms fall into one of three categories depending on the science application: size-based, biogeochemical function, and taxonomy. The new PFT algorithm Phytoplankton Detection with Optics (PHYDOTax) is an inversion algorithm that discriminates taxon-specific biomass to differentiate among six taxa found in the California Current System: diatoms, dinoflagellates, haptophytes, chlorophytes, cryptophytes, and cyanophytes. PHYDOTax was developed and validated in Monterey Bay, CA for the high resolution imaging spectrometer, Spectroscopic Aerial Mapping System with On-board Navigation (SAMSON - 3.5 nm resolution). PHYDOTax exploits the high spectral resolution of an imaging spectrometer and the improved spatial resolution that airborne data provides for coastal areas. The objective of this study was to apply PHYDOTax to a relatively lower resolution imaging spectrometer to test the algorithm's sensitivity to atmospheric correction, to evaluate capability with other sensors, and to determine if down-sampling spectral resolution would degrade its ability to discriminate among phytoplankton taxa. This study is a part of the larger Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) airborne simulation campaign which is collecting Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) imagery aboard NASA's ER-2 aircraft during three seasons in each of two years over terrestrial and marine targets in California. Our aquatic component seeks to develop and test algorithms to retrieve water quality properties (e.g. HABs and river plumes) in both marine and in-land water bodies. Results presented are from the 10 April 2013 overflight of the Monterey Bay region and focus primarily on the first objective - sensitivity to atmospheric correction. On-going and future work will continue to evaluate if PHYDOTax can be applied to historical (SeaWiFS and MERIS), existing (MODIS, VIIRS, and HICO), and future (PACE, GEO-CAPE, and HyspIRI) satellite sensors. Demonstration of cross-platform continuity may aid in calibration and validation efforts of these sensors.

Biological Oceanography↗
NASA NTRS2005

Mapping Weathering and Alteration Minerals in the Comstock and Geiger Grade Areas using Visible to Thermal Infrared Airborne Remote Sensing Data

To support research into both precious metal exploration and environmental site characterization a combination of high spatial/spectral resolution airborne visible, near infrared, short wave infrared (VNIR/SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) image data were acquired to remotely map hydrothermal alteration minerals around the Geiger Grade and Comstock alteration regions, and map the mineral by-products of weathered mine dumps in Virginia City. Remote sensing data from the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), SpecTIR Corporation's airborne hyperspectral imager (HyperSpecTIR), the MODIS-ASTER airborne simulator (MASTER), and the Spatially Enhanced Broadband Array Spectrograph System (SEBASS) were acquired and processed into mineral maps based on the unique spectral signatures of image pixels. VNIR/SWIR and TIR field spectrometer data were collected for both calibration and validation of the remote data sets, and field sampling, laboratory spectral analyses and XRD analyses were made to corroborate the surface mineralogy identified by spectroscopy. The resulting mineral maps show the spatial distribution of several important alteration minerals around each study area including alunite, quartz, pyrophyllite, kaolinite, montmorillonite/muscovite, and chlorite. In the Comstock region the mineral maps show acid-sulfate alteration, widespread propylitic alteration and extensive faulting that offsets the acid-sulfate areas, in contrast to the larger, dominantly acid-sulfate alteration exposed along Geiger Grade. Also, different mineral zones within the intense acid-sulfate areas were mapped. In the Virginia City historic mining district the important weathering minerals mapped include hematite, goethite, jarosite and hydrous sulfate minerals (hexahydrite, alunogen and gypsum) located on mine dumps. Sulfate minerals indicate acidic water forming in the mine dump environment. While there is not an immediate threat to the community, there are clearly sources of acidic drainage that were identified remotely.

imaging spectroscopy↗
NASA NTRS2002

Use of IKONOS Data for Mapping Cultural Resources of Stennis Space Center, Mississippi

Cultural resource surveys are important for compliance with Federal and State law. Stennis Space Center (SSC) in Mississippi is researching, developing, and validating remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) methods for aiding cultural resource assessments on the center's own land. The suitability of IKONOS satellite imagery for georeferencing scanned historic maps is examined in this viewgraph presentation. IKONOS data can be used to map historic buildings and farmland in Gainsville, MS, and plan archaeological surveys.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Simons Observatory Microwave SQUID Multiplexing Detector Module Design

Advances in cosmic microwave background(CMB)science depend on increasing the number of sensitive detectorsobserving the sky. New instruments deploy large arrays of superconducting transition-edge sensor(TES)bolometers tileddensely into ever larger focal planes. High multiplexing factors reduce the thermal loading on the cryogenic receivers andsimplify their design. We present the design of focal-plane modules with an order of magnitude higher multiplexingfactor than has previously been achieved with TES bolometers. We focus on the novel cold readout component, whichemploys microwave SQUID multiplexing(μmux). Simons Observatory will use 49 modules containing 70,000bolometers to make exquisitely sensitive measurements of the CMB. We validate the focal-plane module design,presenting measurements of the readout component with and without a prototype detector array of 1728 polarization-sensitive bolometers coupled to feedhorns. The readout component achieves a 95% yield and a 910 multiplexing factor.The median white noise of each readout channel is 65pA Hz. This impacts the projected SO mapping speed by<8%,which is less than is assumed in the sensitivity projections. The results validate the full functionality of the module. Wediscuss the measured performance in the context of SO science requirements, which are exceeded.

Heather McCarrick↗
NASA NTRS2000

Results from NASA's Near Real Time Ozone Data Assimilation Systems

Organizations in Europe, Australia, and the United States have recently broadened constituent assimilation activities beyond water vapor, which has been assimilated for years in the numerical weather prediction applications. Many of these activities have focused on ozone, with some efforts focused on the entire suite of reactive constituents that control the ozone distribution. This talk will draw from results from the near real-time ozone data assimilation system being run by NASA's Data Assimilation Office. This system utilizes ozone observations from both the TOMS and the SBUV instrument to generate global synoptic maps of ozone. The initial application of this product is to provide ozone fields to assist in the atmospheric corrections' that are necessary for the retrieval of information from other NASA instruments. The validation of the ozone assimilation system shows that the assimilated product agrees well with independent HALOE and ozonesonde observations. Aside from providing a global synoptic map, there is verifiable geophysical information at higher vertical resolution than either of the date types input into the system. This talk will establish the validation results and enumerate applications of the ozone data assimilation system. Results from exploratory research will be presented. The applications being considered include estimates of tropospheric ozone, provision of ozone fields for interactive retrievals, use of analysis increments from the assimilation to evaluate model performance, and development of long-term consistent three-dimensional global ozone fields. The results from the exploratory studies are promising, and help demonstrate how assumptions made in the development of the ozone assimilation impact the other applications. For instance, RMS errors in the current product are large near the tropopause, which is sensitive to the specification of vertical correlation functions, which in turns impacts the amount of ozone analyzed to be in the troposphere. How these sensitivities impact the different applications will also be discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗
NASA NTRS1995

Evaluating the Type and State of Alaska Taiga Forests with Imaging Radar for Use in Ecosystem Models

Changes in the seasonal CO2 flux of the boreal forests may result from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated global warming patterns. To monitor this potential change, a combination of information derived from remote sensing data, including forest type and growing season length, and ecophysiological models which predict the CO2 flux and its seasonal amplitude based on meteorological data, are required. In this paper we address the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to map fores type and monitor canopy and soil freeze/thaw, which define the growing season for conifers, and leaf on/off, which defines the growing season for deciduous species. Aircraft SAR (AIRSAR) data collected in March 1988 during a freeze/thaw event are used to generate species maps and to determine the sensitivity of SAR to canopy freeze/thaw transitions. These data are also used to validate a microwave scattering model which is then used to determine the sensitivity of SAR to leaf on/off transitions and soil freeze/thaw. Finally, a CO2 flux algorithm is presented which utilizes SAR data and an ecophysiological model to estimate CO2 flux. CO2 flux maps are generated, from which areal estimates of CO2 flux are derived.

Alaska↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping National Forest Aboveground Biomass in Mexico By Integrating GEDI and Landsat Times Series Data

Mexico is one of the countries with great potential for the UN's Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) program, a key nature-based solution for the forest sector. To monitor carbon stock changes, there is a growing demand for unbiased Monitoring Reporting Verification (MRV) systems to facilitate effective forest management and climate change mitigation strategies. Remote sensing-based national aboveground biomass density (AGBD) estimation over Mexico is scarce and often limited to one-time static mapping, leading to spatiotemporal inconsistency in inputs. As an effort under NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, we have developed a remote sensing-based approach to create consistent historical AGBD maps of Mexico using multi-stream remote sensing data, including spaceborne lidar GEDI and long-term Landsat time series, as well as topographic information. We employ the continuous change detection and classification (CCDC) algorithm for temporal modeling of Landsat surface reflectance, followed by the inference of forest AGBD using a random forest machine learning algorithm with the temporal information of land surface dynamics extracted by the CCDC as input. GEDI provides unprecedented forest structure and AGBD sampling datasets for model training and validation practices. In this presentation, we share the progress made in developing a spatially explicit mapping of historical AGBD changes associated with land surface changes and post-disturbance landscapes.

Taejin Park↗