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NASA NTRS1999

Economic Analysis on the Space Transportation Architecture Study (STAS) NASA Team

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) performed the Space Transportation Architecture Study (STAS) to provide information to support end-of-the-decade decisions on possible near-term US Government (USG) investments in space transportation. To gain a clearer understanding of the costs and benefits of the broadest range of possible space transportation options, six teams, five from aerospace industry companies and one internal to NASA, were tasked to answer three primary questions: a) If the Space Shuttle system should be replaced; b) If so, when the replacement should take place and how the transition should be implemented; and c) If not, what is the upgrade strategy to continue safe and affordable flight of the Space Shuttle beyond 2010. The overall goal of the Study was "to develop investment options to be considered by the Administration for the President's FY2001 budget to meet NASA's future human space flight requirements with significant reductions in costs." This emphasis on government investment, coupled with the participation by commercial f'trms, required an unprecedented level of economic analysis of costs and benefits from both industry and government viewpoints. This paper will discuss the economic and market models developed by the in-house NASA Team to analyze space transportation architectures, the results of those analyses, and how those results were reflected in the conclusions and recommendations of the STAS NASA Team. Copyright 1999 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. No copyright is asserted in the United States under Title 17, U.$. Code. The U.S. Government has a royalty-free license to exercise all rights under the copyright claimed herein for Governmental purposes. All other rights are reserved by the copyright owner.

Shaw, Eric J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Conceptual Design of a 150-Passenger Civil Tiltrotor

The conceptual design of a short-haul civil tiltrotor aircraft is presented. The concept vehicle is designed for runway-independent operations to increase the capacity of the National Airspace System without the need for increased infrastructure. This necessitates a vehicle that is capable of integrating with conventional air traffic without interfering with established flightpaths. The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft software was used to size the concept vehicle based on the mission requirements of this market. The final configuration was selected based upon performance metrics such as acquisition and maintenance costs, fuel fraction, empty weight, and required engine power. The concept presented herein has a proposed initial operating capability date of 2035, and is intended to integrate with conventional air traffic as well as proposed future air transportation concepts.

150-Passenger↗

NASA NTRS1979

Near-term hybrid vehicle program, phase 1. Appendix D: Sensitivity analysis resport

Parametric analyses, using a hybrid vehicle synthesis and economics program (HYVELD) are described investigating the sensitivity of hybrid vehicle cost, fuel usage, utility, and marketability to changes in travel statistics, energy costs, vehicle lifetime and maintenance, owner use patterns, internal combustion engine (ICE) reference vehicle fuel economy, and drive-line component costs and type. The lowest initial cost of the hybrid vehicle would be $1200 to $1500 higher than that of the conventional vehicle. For nominal energy costs ($1.00/gal for gasoline and 4.2 cents/kWh for electricity), the ownership cost of the hybrid vehicle is projected to be 0.5 to 1.0 cents/mi less than the conventional ICE vehicle. To attain this ownership cost differential, the lifetime of the hybrid vehicle must be extended to 12 years and its maintenance cost reduced by 25 percent compared with the conventional vehicle. The ownership cost advantage of the hybrid vehicle increases rapidly as the price of fuel increases from $1 to $2/gal.

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NASA NTRS1981

Market assessment of photovoltaic power systems for agricultural applications in Colombia

The market potential for photovoltaic systems in the agricultural sector of Colombia is assessed. Consideration was given to over twenty specific livestock production, crop production, and rural services applications requiring less than 15 kW of power without backup power. Analysis revealed that near-term potential exists for photovoltaic technology in applications in coffee depulging, cattle watering, rural domestic users, rural water supply and small irrigation, rural telephones, rural health posts, and vaccine refrigeration. Market size would be in the 1200 to 2500 kWp range in the 1981 to 86 timeframe. Positive factors influencing the market size include a lack of electrical services, potential for developing the Llanos Orientales Territory, high fuel costs in remote areas, balance of system availability, the presence of wealthy land owners, and a large government-sponsored contract for photovoltaic (PV)-powered rural telephone systems. The anticipated eligibility of photovoltaic equipment for loans would be a further positive factor in market potential. Important negative factors include relatively inexpensive energy in developed locations, reliance on hydropower, lack of familiarity with PV equipment, a lack of financing, and established foreign competition in PV technology. Recommendations to American PV manufacturers attempting to develop the Colombian market are given.

Steigelmann, W.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Potential benefits from a successful solar thermal program

Solar energy systems were investigated which complement nuclear and coal technologies as a means of reducing the U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. Solar Thermal Energy Systems (STES) represents an important category of solar energy technologies. STES can be utilized in a broad range of applications servicing a variety of economic sectors, and they can be deployed in both near-term and long-term markets. The net present value of the energy cost savings attributable to electric utility and IPH applications of STES were estimated for a variety of future energy cost scenarios and levels of R&D success. This analysis indicated that the expected net benefits of developing an STES option are significantly greater than the expected costs of completing the required R&D. In addition, transportable fuels and chemical feedstocks represent a substantial future potential market for STES. Due to the basic nature of this R&D activity, however, it is currently impossible to estimate the value of STES in these markets. Despite this fact, private investment in STES R&D is not anticipated due to the high level of uncertainty characterizing the expected payoffs.

Terasawa, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar thermal technologies - Potential benefits to U.S. utilities and industry

Terasawa, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Improved (ERTS) information and its impact on U.S. markets for agricultural commodities: A quantitiative economic investigation of production, distribution and net export effects

An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scope, and architecture of the analysis and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The major empirical results and policy conclusions are set forth. These results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. A number of promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

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NASA NTRS1991

Center for Space Power, Texas A and M University

Johnson Controls is a 106 year old company employing 42,000 people worldwide with $4.7 billion annual sales. Though we are new to the aerospace industry we are a world leader in automobile battery manufacturing, automotive seating, plastic bottling, and facilities environment controls. The battery division produces over 24,000,000 batteries annually under private label for the new car manufacturers and the replacement market. We are entering the aerospace market with the nickel hydrogen battery with the help of NASA's Center for Space Power at Texas A&M. Unlike traditional nickel hydrogen battery manufacturers, we are reaching beyond the space applications to the higher volume markets of aircraft starting and utility load leveling. Though space applications alone will not provide sufficient volume to support the economies of scale and opportunities for statistical process control, these additional terrestrial applications will. For example, nickel hydrogen batteries do not have the environmental problems of nickel cadmium or lead acid and may someday start your car or power your electric vehicle. However you envision the future, keep in mind that no manufacturer moves into a large volume market without fine tuning their process. The Center for Space Power at Texas A&M is providing indepth technical analysis of all of the materials and fabricated parts of our battery as well as thermal and mechanical design computer modeling. Several examples of what we are doing with nickel hydrogen chemistry to lead to these production efficiencies are presented.

Jones, Ken↗

NASA NTRS2004

Space Network Devices Developed

The NASA Glenn Research Center through a contract with Spectrum Astro, Inc., has been developing space network hardware as an enabling technology using open systems interconnect (OSI) standards for space-based communications applications. The OSI standard is a well-recognized layered reference model that specifies how data should be sent node to node in a communications network. Because of this research and technology development, a space-qualifiable Ethernet-based network interface card (similar to the type found in a networked personal computer) and the associated four-port hub were designed and developed to flight specifications. During this research and development, there also have been many lessons learned for determining approaches for migrating existing spacecraft architectures to an OSI-network-based platform. Industry has recognized the benefits of targeting hardware developed around OSI standards such as Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) or similar protocols for use in future generations of space communication systems. Some of these tangible benefits include overall reductions in mission schedule and cost and in system complexity. This development also brings us a step closer to the realization of a principal investigator on a terrestrial Internet site being able to interact with space platform assets in near real time. To develop this hardware, Spectrum Astro first conducted a technology analysis of alternatives study. For this analysis, they looked at the features of three protocol specifications: Ethernet (IEEE 802.3), Firewire (IEEE 1394), and Spacewire (IEEE 1355). A thorough analysis was performed on the basis of criteria such as current protocol performance and suitability for future space applications. Spectrum Astro also projected future influences such as cost, hardware and software availability, throughput performance, and integration procedures for current and transitive space architectures. After a thorough analysis, Ethernet was chosen because it was seen as the best longer term fit because of the prevalent commercial market; the current and projected availability of hardware, software, and development tools; and the ease of architecture integration.

Jones, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Advanced Air Mobility and Safety Management Systems

Our current air transportation system has underserved markets, including local, regional, intraregional, and urban transportation of both people and cargo. Recent advances in aviation technology such as small highly-automated vehicles, electric aircraft, and automated air traffic are enabling business opportunities in these markets. Advanced Air Mobility, or AAM, refers to a community effort to overcome the gaps in operational rules, safety analysis, and overall acceptance, so that these new operations will be possible. For full details, please see: https://www.nasa.gov/aam As we think about how we can safely introduce these new operations, fundamental questions about how the structure of Safety Management Systems can be applied to AAM, and how that structure can be used to help us overcome the necessary technical and societal obstacles arise. Two of these questions are: • How do we tailor the requirements and desired level of monitoring and assessment to achieve safety given the breadth of possible operations and the associated risk of those operations? • How do we aid innovation by rapidly evaluating the safety of novel operations without losing associated rigor? We assume that a Safety Management System that enables these future systems will incorporate knowledge of the acceptable level of risk, and will utilize data science to automate the core monitor, assess and mitigate functions that will allow us to respond to risks and hazards in time to prevent safety incidents. In 2018, the National Academies proposed an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) that would advance these goals. (https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24962/in-time-aviation-safety-management-challenges-and-research-for-an) The National Academies made a clear distinction between in-time systems, in which hazards could be identified and risks mitigated in time to prevent incidents, and real-time systems, since many hazards and risks do not need real-time data and analysis to detect and mitigate.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

NASA NTRS2011

Rapid Detection of the Varicella Zoster Virus

1.Technology Description-Researchers discovered that when the Varicella Zoster Virus (VZV) reactivates from latency in the body, the virus is consistently present in saliva before the appearance of skin lesions. A small saliva sample is mixed with a specialized reagent in a test kit. If the virus is present in the saliva sample, the mixture turns a red color. The sensitivity and specificity emanates from an antibody-antigen reaction. This technology is a rapid, non-invasive, point of-of-care testing kit for detecting the virus from a saliva sample. The device is easy to use and can be used in clinics and in remote locations to quickly detect VZV and begin treatment with antiviral drugs. 2.Market Opportunity- RST Bioscience will be the first and only company to market a rapid, same day test kit for the detection of VZV in saliva. The RST detection test kit will have several advantages over existing, competitive technology. The test kit is self contained and laboratory equipment is not required for analysis of the sample. Only a single saliva sample is required to be taken instead of blood or cerebral spinal fluid. The test kit is portable, sterile and disposable after use. RST detection test kits require no electrical power or expensive storage equipment and can be used in remote locations. 3.Market Analysis- According to the CDC, it is estimated that 1 million cases of shingles occur each year in the U.S. with more than half over the age of sixty. There is a high demand for rapid diagnostics by the public. The point-of-care testing (POCT) market is growing faster than other segments of in vitro diagnostics. According to a July 2007 InteLab Corporation industry report the overall market for POCT was forecast to increase from $10.3 billion in 2005 to $18.7 billion by 2011. The market value of this test kit has not been determined. 4.Competition- The VZV vaccine prevents 50% of cases and reduces neuralgia by 66%. The most popular test detects VZV-specific IgM antibody in blood. Other tests include running a sample in a polymerase chain reaction analyzer, enzyme immunoassay, latex agglutination, indirect fluorescent antibody and fluorescent antibody to membrane antigen assay. These existing tests require laboratory analysis by trained personnel, expensive equipment, invasive procedures and a longer period of time to obtain test results.

Lewis, Michelle P.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Influences on corporate executive decision behavior in government acquisitions

This paper presents extensive exploratory research which had as its primary objective, the discovery and determination of major areas of concern exhibited by U.S. corporate executives in the preparation and submittal of proposals and bids to the Federal government. The existence of numerous unique concerns inherent in corporate strategies within the government market environment was established. A determination of the relationship of these concerns to each other was accomplished utilizing statistical factor analysis techniques resulting in the identification of major groupings of management concerns. Finally, using analysis of variance, an analysis and discovery of the interrelationship of the factors to corporate demographics was accomplished. The existence of separate and distinct concerns exhibited by corporate executives when contemplating sales and operations in the government marketplace was established. It was also demonstrated that quantifiable relationships exist between such variables and that the decision behavior exhibited by the responsible executives has an interrelationship to their company's demographics.

Wetherington, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Technology And Pregnant Pigs

One of the interesting things about aerospace spinoff is the way it keeps cropping up in uncommon applications unimaginably remote from the original technology. For example, the pig pregnancy detector. The pig pregnancy detector? City folk may be surprised to learn that there is such a thing-and wonder why. The why is because it is a sow's job to produce piglets and farmers can't afford to keep those who don't; it costs about a half-dollar a day in feed, labor and facilities, and even in small herds that's intolerable. So the barren sow must go. Until recently, the best method of determining pig pregnancy was "eyeballing," daily visual examination over a period of time. The problem with eyeballing is that pregnancy is not evident until well advanced; when there is no pregnancy, the farmer learns too late that he has been feeding a sow that won't give him a litter. Advancing technology provided an answer: the quick, easy-to-use, accurate automatic detector for early evaluation of pregnancy status. Among the most popular of these devices are Scanopreg and Scanoprobe, to whose development NASA technology contributed. Scanopreg is an ultrasonic system which detects pregnancy about 30 days after breeding, long before eyeballing can provide an answer. The companion Scanoprobe is a dual-function unit which not only determines pregnancy but also gives farmers an analysis of a hog's meat-fat ratio, an important factor in breeding. Only a short time on the market, Scanopreg and Scanoprobe have already found wide acceptance among meat producers because they rapidly repay their cost.

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NASA NTRS1983

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

Gates, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Feasibility study of modern airships, phase 1. Volume 3: Historical overview (task 1)

The history of lighter-than-air vehicles is reviewed in terms of providing a background for the mission analysis and parametric analysis tasks. Data from past airships and airship operations are presented in the following areas: (1) parameterization of design characteristics; (2) markets, missions, costs, and operating procedures, (3) indices of efficiency for comparison; (4) identification of critical design and operational characteristics; and (5) definition of the 1930 state-of-the-art and the 1974 state-of-the-art from a technical and economic standpoint.

Faurote, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Overview of escalator applications in rail transit

The difference in operating environment and in construction between escalators in transit and nontransit use, the impact of recent escalator innovations, and areas which could benefit from urban mass transportation administration sponsored research and development are determined. Several factors causing a more severe transit escalator operating environment are identified. There are no significant design differences between transit and nontransit escalators. Recent innovations that have affected performance and cost include outdoor escalators, extra flat steps at both landings, and modular escalators. Data were collected by interviews at transit agencies. Long term, unscheduled, escalator maintenance records were available for analysis from one property. A description of escalator operating principles is provided. Transit represents less than 5% of the U.S. escalator market. Transit agencies have limited leverage on escalator industry practices. A substantial impact on transit escalator cost and performance can be achieved by research identifying when and how to apply and specify several of the more recent innovations. Purchase of escalators under long term (25 year) maintenance contracts is one method that has been used to promote escalators manufactured for minimum life cycle cost.

Deshpande, G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Software to Control and Monitor Gas Streams

This software package interfaces with various gas stream devices such as pressure transducers, flow meters, flow controllers, valves, and analyzers such as a mass spectrometer. The software provides excellent user interfacing with various windows that provide time-domain graphs, valve state buttons, priority- colored messages, and warning icons. The user can configure the software to save as much or as little data as needed to a comma-delimited file. The software also includes an intuitive scripting language for automated processing. The configuration allows for the assignment of measured values or calibration so that raw signals can be viewed as usable pressures, flows, or concentrations in real time. The software is based on those used in two safety systems for shuttle processing and one volcanic gas analysis system. Mass analyzers typically have very unique applications and vary from job to job. As such, software available on the market is usually inadequate or targeted on a specific application (such as EPA methods). The goal was to develop powerful software that could be used with prototype systems. The key problem was to generalize the software to be easily and quickly reconfigurable. At Kennedy Space Center (KSC), the prior art consists of two primary methods. The first method was to utilize Lab- VIEW and a commercial data acquisition system. This method required rewriting code for each different application and only provided raw data. To obtain data in engineering units, manual calculations were required. The second method was to utilize one of the embedded computer systems developed for another system. This second method had the benefit of providing data in engineering units, but was limited in the number of control parameters.

Arkin, C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Economics of Advanced In-Space Propulsion

The cost of access to space is the single biggest driver is commercial space sector. NASA continues to invest in both launch technology and in-space propulsion. Low-cost launch systems combined with advanced in-space propulsion offer the greatest potential market capture. Launch market capture is critical to national security and has a significant impact on domestic space sector revenue. NASA typically focuses on pushing the limits on performance. However, the commercial market is driven by maximum net revenue (profits). In order to maximum the infusion of NASA investments, the impact on net revenue must be known. As demonstrated by Boeing's dual launch, the Falcon 9 combined with all Electric Propulsion (EP) can dramatically shift the launch market from foreign to domestic providers.

electric propulsion↗