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DOE OSTI2020

Sample shape and boundary dependence of measured transverse thermal properties

In spite of increased interest in thermal Hall measurements for the analysis of insulating quantum materials, there remains large uncertainty in such measurements due to contact misalignment. In this paper, we propose that sample geometry and uncertain boundary conditions provide an additional source of uncertainty in the measurement of $D_{xy}$ or $κ_{xy}$. By running simple simulations in an open source finite-element solver, we demonstrate that measured $D_{xy}$ can be changed by a non-negligible fraction in samples with similar width and length. This geometric corrective factor depends on the distinction between a uniform heat flow and constant temperature boundary couplings to a bath. Sample geometry and boundary conditions can be accounted for through simulation or by using rectangular samples to make thermal Hall measurements more reliable and reproducible. Finally, we detail a contactless optical method for measuring $D_{xy}$ based on an existing photothermal microscope technique. This method is insensitive to the longitudinal diffusivity pollution caused by contact misalignment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neural chaos: A spectral stochastic neural operator

Building surrogate models for operators with uncertainty quantification capabilities is essential for many engineering applications where randomness–such as variability in material properties, boundary conditions, and initial conditions–is unavoidable. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely recognized as a go-to method for constructing stochastic surrogates in both intrusive and non-intrusive ways, and it has recently been used in the context of operator learning. However, its application becomes challenging for complex or high-dimensional processes, as achieving accuracy requires higher-order polynomials, which can increase computational demand and/or the risk of overfitting. Furthermore, PCE requires specialized treatments to manage random variables that are not independent, and these treatments may be problem-dependent or may fail with increasing complexity. Here, in this work, we adopt the same formalism as the spectral expansion used in PCE; however, we replace the classical polynomial basis functions with neural network (NN) basis functions to leverage their expressivity. To achieve this, we propose an algorithm that identifies NN-parameterized basis functions in a purely data-driven manner, without any prior assumptions about the joint distribution of the random variables involved, whether independent or dependent, or about their marginal distributions. The proposed algorithm identifies each NN-parameterized basis function sequentially, ensuring they are orthogonal with respect to the data distribution. The basis functions are constructed directly on the joint stochastic variables without requiring a tensor product structure or assuming independence of the random variables. This approach may offer greater flexibility for complex stochastic models, while simplifying implementation compared to the tensor product structures typically used in PCE to handle random vectors. This is particularly advantageous given the current state of open-source packages, where building and training neural networks can be done with just a few lines of code and extensive community support. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme through several numerical examples of varying complexity and provide comparisons with classical PCE.

Polynomial chaos expansion↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modeling the Gas Dynamics Environment in a Subscale Solid Rocket Test Motor

Subscale test motors are often used for the evaluation of solid rocket motor component materials such as internal insulation. These motors are useful for characterizing insulation performance behavior, screening insulation material candidates and obtaining material thermal and ablative property design data. One of the primary challenges associated with using subscale motors however, is the uncertainty involved when extrapolating the results to full-scale motor conditions. These uncertainties are related to differences in such phenomena as turbulent flow behavior and boundary layer development, propellant particle interactions with the wall, insulation off-gas mixing and thermochemical reactions with the bulk flow, radiation levels, material response to the local environment, and other anomalous flow conditions. In addition to the need for better understanding of physical mechanisms, there is also a need to better understand how to best simulate these phenomena using numerical modeling approaches such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD). To better understand and model interactions between major phenomena in a subscale test motor, a numerical study of the internal flow environment of a representative motor was performed. Simulation of the environment included not only gas dynamics, but two-phase flow modeling of entrained alumina particles like those found in an aluminized propellant, and offgassing from wall surfaces similar to an ablating insulation material. This work represents a starting point for establishing the internal environment of a subscale test motor using comprehensive modeling techniques, and lays the groundwork for improving the understanding of the applicability of subscale test data to full-scale motors. It was found that grid resolution, and inclusion of phenomena in addition to gas dynamics, such as two-phase and multi-component gas composition are all important factors that can effect the overall flow field predictions.

Eaton, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictive Modeling of Carbon Ablators

Efforts to build a Predictive Material Modeling (PMM) framework from the micro-scale to the macro-scale are presented in this abstract. To reduce the need for extensive testing, accelerate the design cycle process, and reduce uncertainty margins applied to final designs, NASA is developing simulation and modeling tools that enable characterization of material properties and response to high-enthalpy environments. The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) code has been developed for computing macroscale (volume averaged) properties of porous materials using microscale images from micro-computed tomography (micro-CT). Microscale modeling requires a realistic representation of a material microstructure; these are obtained either synthetically during the design of the material or through X-ray micro-CT. Volume averaged properties are then used to inform macroscale material response models, such as those implemented in the Porous-material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software, also actively developed by NASA. The computational model in PATO is a generic heat and mass transfer model for porous reactive materials containing several solid phases and a single gas phase. The detailed chemical interactions occurring between the solid phases and the gas phase are modeled at the pore scale assuming local thermal equilibrium. These tools were developed to efficiently interface with other pre-existing codes such as SPARTA (direct simulation Monte Carlo), DPLR (hypersonic CFD), NEQAIR (radiative transport) and DAKOTA (uncertainty quantification and optimization). Detailed flight data (Mars Science Laboratory [MSL] Entry Descent and Landing Instrument [MEDLI]) is critical for validating these computational tools for NASA applications. Examples of modeling ablative material response using these codes will be presented including 3D simulations of the full-scale heatshield of the MSL capsule. The simulations demonstrate the ability of the modern material response code, PATO, to handle the material response of geometrically complex and large domains, through the use of massively parallel computations.

Thermal Protection Systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictive Modeling of Carbon Ablators Using Micro and Macro-Scale Modeling

Thermal Protection Systems↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dirac's equation and its implications for density functional theory based calculations of materials containing heavy elements

Electronic structure calculations based on density functional theory (DFT) give quantitatively accurate predictions of properties of most materials containing light elements. For heavy materials, and in particular for f -electron systems, DFT based methods can fail both qualitatively and quantitatively for two distinct reasons: their failure to describe confinement effects arising from localized f -electron behavior and their incomplete or approximate treatment of relativity. In addition, different methods for incorporating relativistic effects, which give identical results in most light materials, can give different predictions in heavy elements. In order to develop a quantitative capability for calculating the properties of these materials, it is essential to separate the predictions of the underlying equations from the uncertainty introduced in approximations used in computation. Working toward that goal, here we have developed a code, called dirac-fp , which is based directly on solving the Dirac-Kohn-Sham equations and uses the full-potential linear muffin-tin orbital (FP-LMTO) approach to electronic structure. In order to assess the performance of dirac-fp , we perform calculations on three different face-centered cubic materials using different approximate treatments of relativity: the scalar relativistic (SR) approach commonly used in most solid-state DFT codes, the scalar relativistic plus spin-orbit coupling corrections (SR+SO) approach which includes spin-orbit coupling self-consistently using the SR states inside the muffin tins, and the Dirac-Kohn-Sham (Dirac) approach implemented in dirac-fp . Performing calculations on thorium, in which relativistic effects should be strong, aluminum, in which relativistic effects should be negligible, and gold, in which relativistic effects play an intermediate role, we find that the Dirac approach is able to provide theoretically consistent results in the electronic structure and ground-state properties across all three materials.

3-dimensional systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics consistent machine learning framework for inverse modeling with applications to ICF capsule implosions

In high energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF), predictive modeling is complicated by uncertainty in parameters that characterize various aspects of the modeled system, such as those characterizing material properties, equation of state (EOS), opacities, and initial conditions. Typically, however, these parameters are not directly observable. What is observed instead is a time sequence of radiographic projections using X-rays. In this work, we define a set of sparse hydrodynamic features derived from the outgoing shock profile and outer material edge, which can be obtained from radiographic measurements, to directly infer such parameters. Our machine learning (ML)-based methodology involves a pipeline of two architectures, a radiograph-to-features network (R2FNet) and a features-to-parameters network (F2PNet), that are trained independently and later combined to approximate a posterior distribution for the parameters from radiographs. We show that the machine learning architectures are able to accurately infer initial conditions and EOS parameters, and that the estimated parameters can be used in a hydrodynamics code to obtain density fields, shocks, and material interfaces that satisfy thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistency. Finally, we demonstrate that features resulting from an unknown EOS model can be successfully mapped onto parameters of a chosen analytical EOS model, implying that network predictions are learning physics, with a degree of invariance to the underlying choice of EOS model. To the best of our knowledge, our framework is the first demonstration of recovering both thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistent density fields from noisy radiographs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for structural reliability assessment of space flight systems

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for predicting the failure life distribution due to subcritical crack growth is presented. A state-of-the-art crack propagation method is used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. The crack growth failure model expresses failure life as a function of stochastic parameters including environment, loads, material properties, geometry, and model specification errors. A stochastic crack growth rate model that considers the uncertainties due to scatter in the data and mode misspecification is proposed. The rationale for choosing a particular type of probability distribution for each stochastic input parameter and for specifying the distribution parameters is presented. The approach is demonstrated through a probabilistic crack growth failure analysis of a welded tube in the Space Shuttle Main Engine. A discussion of the results from this application of the methodology is given.

Sutharshana, S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative measurements of dislocations in metals for advancing predictive simulations

LLNL applications require scientists to predict how materials evolve under various thermomechanical conditions. While this is achieved through physics-based simulations, uncertainty in the predictions of mechanical properties remains a serious challenge that limits the predictive capabilities of models because we lack methods to compare predictions of atomic-scale defects (dislocations) with experimental measurements. High energy X-ray diffraction (HEXRD) is the most relevant technique that can provide the necessary statistical information on dislocations. However, this technique is not yet quantitative because we lack a precise understanding of the relationship between X-ray diffraction patterns and the underlying material dislocation content and arrangements. To address this need, we used our novel computational X-ray diffraction method to simulate the effect of dislocations on the diffraction patterns. We compared virtual and experimental diffraction patterns. Results allowed us to clearly establish the relationship between X-ray diffraction patterns and the underlying dislocation structures, proving that it is feasible to quantitatively measure dislocation statistics with HEXRD. This project delivered a method that can provide the missing piece to LLNL’s mechanical property simulations in advanced metals by obtaining experimentally long-needed quantitative dislocation data, which could fully enable predictive capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic simulation of long term behavior in polymer matrix composites

A methodology to compute cumulative probability distribution functions (CDF) of fatigue life for different ratios, r of applied stress to the laminate strength based on first ply failure criteria has been developed and demonstrated. Degradation effects due to long term environmental exposure and mechanical cyclic loads are considered in the simulation process. A unified time-stress dependent multi-factor interaction equation model developed at NASA Lewis Research Center has been used to account for the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. Fast probability integration method is used to perform probabilistic simulation of uncertainties. Sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables are computed and their significance in the reliability based design for maximum life is discussed. The results show that the graphite/epoxy (0/+45/90) deg laminate with ply thickness 0.125 in. has 500,000 cycles life for applied stress to laminate strength ratio of 0.6 and a reliability of 0.999. Also, the fatigue life reliability has been found to be most sensitive to the ply thickness and matrix tensile strength. Tighter quality controls must therefore be enforced on ply thickness and matrix strength in order to achieve high reliability of the structure.

Shah, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Energy coupling in catastrophic collisions

The prediction of events leading to the catastrophic collisions and disruption of solar system bodies is fraught with the same difficulties as are other theories of impact events; since one simply cannot perform experiments in the regime of interest. In the catastrophic collisions of asteroids that regime involves bodies of a few tons to hundred of kilometers in diameter, and velocities of several kilometers pre second. For hundred kilometer bodies, gravitational stresses dominate material fracture strengths, but those gravitational stresses are essentially absent for laboratory experiments. Only numerical simulations using hydrocodes can in principle analyze the true problems, but they have their own major uncertainties about the correctness of the physical models and properties. The question of the measure of the impactor and its energy coupling is investigated using numerical code calculations. The material model was that of a generic silicate rock, including high pressure melt and vapor phases, and includes material nonlinearity and dissipation via a Mie-Gruniesen model. A series of calculations with various size ratios and impact velocities are reported.

Holsapple, K. A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Thermal Evolution and Internal Structure of Saturn's Midsize Icy Satellites

The Cassini-Huygens mission is returning new geophysical data for the midsize, icy satellites of Saturn (i.e., satellites with radii between 100 and 1,000 km). These data have enabled a new generation of geophysical model studies for Phoebe, Iapetus, Rhea, Mimas, Tethys, Dione, as well as Enceladus (see Spencer et al. 2009). Here we consider the new model studies that have reported significant results elucidating the evolutionary histories and internal structures of these satellites. Those results have included their age, the development of their internal structures and mineralogies, which for greatest fidelity must be done concomitantly with coupled dynamical evolutions. Surface areas, volumes, bulk densities, spin rates, orbit inclinations, eccentricities, and distance from Saturn have changed as the satellites have aged. Heat is required to power the satellites evolution, but is not overly abundant for the midsized satellites. All sources of heat must be evaluated and taken into account. This includes their intensities and when they occur and are available to facilitate evolution, both internal and dynamical. The mechanisms of heat transport must also be included. However, to model these to high fidelity the material properties of the satellite interiors must be accurately known. This is not the case. Thus, we discuss what is known about these properties and how the uncertainties affect the estimation of heat sources, transport processes, and the consequential changes in composition and evolution. Phoebe has an oblate shape that may be in equilibrium with its spin period of ~9.3 h. Its orbital properties suggest that it is not one of the regular satellites, but is a captured body. Its density is higher than that of the other satellites, consistent with formation in the solar nebula rather than from material around Saturn. Oblate shape and high density are unusual for objects in this size range, and may indicate that Phoebe was heated by Al-26 decay soon after its formation, which is consistent with some models of the origin of Kuiper belt objects. Iapetus has the shape of a hydrostatic body with a rotation period near 16 h. It subsequently despun to its current synchronous rotation state, ~79 day period. These observations are sufficient to constrain the required heating in Iapetus early history, suggesting that it formed several My after CAI condensation. Because Saturn had to be present for Iapetus to form, this date also constrains the age of Saturn and how long it took to form. Both shape and gravitational data are available for Rhea. Gravity data were obtained from the single Cassini flyby during the prime mission and within the uncertainties cannot distinguish between hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic gravitational fields. Both Dione and Tethys display evidence of smooth terrains, with Dione's appearing considerably younger. Both are conceivably linked to tidal heating in the past, but the low rock abundance within Tethys and the lack of eccentricity excitation of Tethys orbit today make explaining this satellite's geology challenging.

Matson, Dennis L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Time domain identification of element matrices

Accurate mathematical models are clearly an important part of the design, modification, control, and damage assessment of large space structures. A critical part of model determination of any type of structure is the use of system identification (SI), a process for using measured excitation and response data to improve the form of a mathematical model or the values of the parameters in it. The reasons for using SI are manifold, but most of them involve uncertainties in either the form of or the parameters in the mathematical model. Some of the more common uncertainties are the following: the nature of the damping, the characteristics of sloppy or sticky joints, inelastic material properties, and parameters in a reduced Degree-of-Freedom (DOF) model. This paper contains a description of the SI algorithm followed by two illustrations: one in which all parameters in a shear building model are determined using pull back and quick release data, and another in which an equivalent reduced DOF model is obtained for a two story frame.

Matzen, Vernon C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bond Line Thickness Estimation in Composite Structures Using Multiple Inspection Techniques

Imaging and other nondestructive evaluation techniques are commonly used for material characterization and defect recognition in safety critical aerospace applications, with data fusion providing the framework for uncertainty quantification in these contexts. Most commonly, forward physics-based modeling predicts the response conditioned on material properties and defect assumptions, and probabilistic methods are used to infer the hidden state of the subject of the inspection from a combination of prior information, likelihoods, and inspection data. In this paper Bayesian methods are used to estimate bond thickness in lap joints comprised of aluminum adherends using a combination of infrared thermography and ultrasound. The concept of the conflation of probability distributions is applied to combine the posterior distributions derived from thermography and ultrasound and the quality of the fused estimates are compared against the individual estimates against synthetic data that was created to mimic the inspection of a lap joint comprised of aluminum adherends.

thermal nondestructive evaluation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bond Line Thickness Estimation in Composite Structures Using Multiple Inspection Techniques

Imaging and other nondestructive evaluation techniques are commonly used for material characterization and defect recognition in safety critical aerospace applications, with data fusion providing the framework for uncertainty quantification in these contexts. Most commonly, forward physics-based modeling predicts the response conditioned on material properties and defect assumptions, and probabilistic methods are used to infer the hidden state of subject of the inspection from a combination of prior information, likelihoods, and inspection data. In this paper Bayesian methods are used to estimate bond thickness in lap joints comprised of aluminum adherends using a combination of infrared thermography, digital radiography, and ultrasound. The accuracy of the fused estimates are validated against data generated from synthetic specimens, and by comparison against high resolution X-ray computed tomography inspections of built specimens.

thermal nondestructive evaluation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microstructure-Sensitive Uncertainty Quantification for Crystal Plasticity Finite Element Constitutive Models Using Stochastic Collocation Methods

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a major role in verification and validation for computational engineering models and simulations, and establishes trust in the predictive capability of computational models. In the materials science and engineering context, where the process-structure-property-performance linkage is well known to be the only road mapping from manufacturing to engineering performance, numerous integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been developed across a wide spectrum of length-scales and time-scales to relieve the burden of resource-intensive experiments. Within the structure-property linkage, crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) models have been widely used since they are one of a few ICME toolboxes that allows numerical predictions, providing the bridge from microstructure to materials properties and performances. Several constitutive models have been proposed in the last few decades to capture the mechanics and plasticity behavior of materials. While some UQ studies have been performed, the robustness and uncertainty of these constitutive models have not been rigorously established. In this work, we apply a stochastic collocation (SC) method, which is mathematically rigorous and has been widely used in the field of UQ, to quantify the uncertainty of three most commonly used constitutive models in CPFEM, namely phenomenological models (with and without twinning), and dislocation-density-based constitutive models, for three different types of crystal structures, namely face-centered cubic (fcc) copper (Cu), body-centered cubic (bcc) tungsten (W), and hexagonal close packing (hcp) magnesium (Mg). Our numerical results not only quantify the uncertainty of these constitutive models in stress-strain curve, but also analyze the global sensitivity of the underlying constitutive parameters with respect to the initial yield behavior, which may be helpful for robust constitutive model calibration works in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Photovoltaic Module Materials and Design on Module Deformation Under Load

Quasi-static structural finite-element models of an aluminum-framed crystalline silicon photovoltaic module and a glass-glass thin-film module were constructed and validated against experimental measurements of deflection under uniform pressure loading. Specific practices in the computational representation of module assembly were identified as influential to matching experimental deflection observations. Additionally, parametric analyses using Latin hypercube sampling were performed to propagate input uncertainties related to module materials, dimensions, and tolerances into uncertainties in simulated deflection. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the uncertainty quantification datasets using linear correlation coefficients and variance-based sensitivity indices to elucidate key parameters influencing module deformation. Results identified edge tape and adhesive material properties as being strongly correlated to module deflection, suggesting that optimization of these materials could yield module stiffness gains at par with the conventionally structural parameters, such as glass thickness. This exercise verifies the applicability of finite-element models for accurately predicting mechanical behavior of solar modules and demonstrates a workflow for model-based parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Finally, applications of this capability include the assessment of field environment loads, derivation of representative loading conditions for reduced-scale testing, and module design optimization, among others.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Imprecise global sensitivity analysis using bayesian multimodel inference and importance sampling

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) aims to understand the relative importance of uncertain input variables to model response. Conventional GSA involves calculating sensitivity (Sobol’) indices for a model with known model parameter distributions. However, model parameters are affected by aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, with the latter often caused by lack of data. In this paper, we propose a new framework to quantify uncertainty in probability model-form and model parameters resulting from small datasets and integrate these uncertainties into Sobol’ index estimates. First, the process establishes, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate probability models and their associated probabilities. Imprecise Sobol’ indices are calculated from these probability models using an importance sampling reweighting approach. This results in probabilistic Sobol’ indices, whose distribution characterizes uncertainty in the sensitivity resulting from small dataset size. The imprecise Sobol’ indices thus provide a measure of confidence in the sensitivity estimate and, moreover, can be used to inform data collection efforts targeted to minimize the impact of uncertainties. Through an example studying the parameters of a Timoshenko beam, we show that these probabilistic Sobol’ indices converge to the true/deterministic Sobol’ indices as the dataset size increases and hence, distribution-form uncertainty reduces. The approach is then applied to assess the sensitivity of the out-of-plane properties of an E-glass fiber composite material to its constituent properties. This second example illustrates the approach for an important class of materials with wide-ranging applications when data may be lacking for some input parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗