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NASA NTRS2002

A Method to Retrieve Rainfall Rate over Land from TRMM Observations

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) observations over mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) reveal that there are localized maxima in the rain rate with a scale of about 10 to 20 km that represent thunderstorms (Cbs). Some of these Cbs are developing or intense, while others are decaying or weak. These Cbs constitute only about 20 % of the rain area of a given MCS. Outside of Cbs, the average rain rate is much weaker than that within Cbs. From an analysis of the PR data, we find that the spatial distribution of rain and its character, convective or stratiform, is highly inhomogeneous. This complex nature of rain exists on a scale comparable to that of a Cb. The 85 GHz brightness temperature, T85, observations of the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer taken over an MCS reflect closely the PR rain rate pattern over land. Local maxima in rain rate shown by PR are observed as local minima in T85. Where there are no minima in T85, PR observations indicate there is light rain. However, the TMI brightness temperature measurements (Tbs) have poor ability to discriminate convective rain from stratiform rain. For this reason, a TMI rain retrieval procedure that depends primarily on the magnitude of Tbs performs poorly. In order to retrieve rain rate from TMI data on land one has to include the spatial distribution information deduced from the T85 data in the retrieval method. Then, quantitative estimation of rain rate can be accomplished. A TMI rain retrieval method developed along these lines can yield estimates of rain rate and its frequency distribution which agree closely with that given by PR. We find the current TRMM project TMI (Version 5) rain retrieval algorithm on land could be improved with the retrieval scheme developed here. To support the conceptual frame work of the rain retrieval method developed here, a theoretical analysis of the TMI brightness temperatures in convective and stratiform regions is presented.

Prabhakara, C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Linking Horizontal And Vertical Transports of Biomass Fire Emissions to the Tropical Atlantic Ozone Paradox during the Northern Hemisphere Winter Season: II. 1998-1999.

The horizontal and vertical transport of biomass fire emissions in West Africa during November 1998 through February 1999, are examined using all available data including wind, fire, aerosol, precipitation, lightning and outgoing longwave radiation. Ozonesonde data from the Aerosols99 Trans-Atlantic cruise are also included with rain and wind analyses. The results here support earlier studies that ozone and ozone precursors associated with biomass burning are confined to the lower troposphere primarily due to the lack of deep convection over land areas. Ozone and its precursors are horizontally transported equatorward or towards the west by winds in the 1000-700 hPa layers. However, rising adiabatic motions associated with the diurnal evolution of the West African n can transport ozone and its precursors vertically into the free troposphere above the marine boundary layer. Moreover, lightning from South America, Central Africa and mesoscale convective systems in the Gulf of Guinea can lead to elevated ozone mixing ratios in the middle and upper troposphere.

Jenkins, Gregory S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Sounding-Diagnosed Convective Environments and Preliminary Energy Budgets Diagnosed during the TRMM Field Campaigns

An overview of mean convective thermodynamic and wind profiles for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) and Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX) field campaigns will be presented, highlighting the diverse continental and marine tropical environments in which rain clouds and mesoscale convective systems evolved. An assessment of ongoing sounding quality control procedures will be shown. Additionally, we will present preliminary budgets of sensible heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2), which have been diagnosed from the various sounding networks.

Halverson, Jeffrey B.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Passive and Active Microwave Remote Sensing of Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions in the Tropics from TRMM

Passive and active microwave remote sensing data are analyzed to identify signatures of precipitation and vertical motion in tropical convection. A database of cloud/radiative model simulations is used to quantify surface rain rates and latent heating profiles that are consistent with these signatures. At satellite footprint-scale (approximately 10 km), rain rate and latent heating estimates are subject to significant random errors, but by averaging the estimates in space and time, random errors are substantially reduced, Bias errors have been minimized by improving the microphysics in the supporting cloud/radiative model simulations, and by imposing a consistent definition of remotely-sensed and model-simulated convective/stratiform rain coverage. Remotely-sensed precipitation and latent heating distributions in the tropics are derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/ I) sensor data. The prototype Version 6 TRMM passive microwave algorithm typically yields average heating profiles with maxima between 6 and 7 km altitude for organized mesoscale convective systems. Retrieved heating profiles for individual convective systems are compared to coincident estimates based upon a combination of dual-Doppler radar and rawinsonde data. Also, large-scale latent heating distributions are compared to estimates derived from a simpler technique that utilizes observations of surface rain rate and stratiform rain proportion to infer vertical heating structure. Results of these tests will be presented at the conference.

Olson, William S.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Enhanced Product Generation at NASA Data Centers Through Grid Technology

This paper describes how grid technology can support the ability of NASA data centers to provide customized data products. A combination of grid technology and commodity processors are proposed to provide the bandwidth necessary to perform customized processing of data, with customized data subsetting providing the initial example. This customized subsetting engine can be used to support a new type of subsetting, called phenomena-based subsetting, where data is subsetted based on its association with some phenomena, such as mesoscale convective systems or hurricanes. This concept is expanded to allow the phenomena to be detected in one type of data, with the subsetting requirements transmitted to the subsetting engine to subset a different type of data. The subsetting requirements are generated by a data mining system and transmitted to the subsetter in the form of an XML feature index that describes the spatial and temporal extent of the phenomena. For this work, a grid-based mining system called the Grid Miner is used to identify the phenomena and generate the feature index. This paper discusses the value of grid technology in facilitating the development of a high performance customized product processing and the coupling of a grid mining system to support phenomena-based subsetting.

Barkstrom, Bruce R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Regional-Scale Modeling at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Over the past decade, the Goddard Mesoscale Modeling and Dynamics Group has used a popular regional scale model, MM5, to study precipitation processes. Our group is making contributions to the MM5 by incorporating the following physical and numerical packages: improved Goddard cloud processes, a land processes model (Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange - PLACE), efficient but sophisticated radiative processes, conservation of hydrometeor mass (water budget), four-dimensional data assimilation for rainfall, and better computational methods for trace gas transport. At NASA Goddard, the MM5 has been used to study: (1) the impact of initial conditions, assimilation of satellite-derived rainfall, and cumulus parameterizations on rapidly intensifying oceanic cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons, (2) the dynamic and thermodynamic processes associated with the development of narrow cold frontal rainbands, (3) regional climate and water cycles, (4) the impact of vertical transport by clouds and lightning on trace gas distributiodproduction associated with South and North American mesoscale convective systems, (5) the development of a westerly wind burst (WWB) that occurred during the TOGA COARE and the diurnal variation of precipitation in the tropics, (6) a Florida sea breeze convective event and a Mid-US flood event using a sophisticated land surface model, (7) the influence of soil heterogeneity on land surface energy balance in the southwest GCIP region, (8) explicit simulations (with 1.33 to 4 km horizontal resolution) of hurricanes Bob (1991) and Bonnie (1998), (9) a heavy precipitation event over Taiwan, and (10) to make real time forecasts for a major NASA field program. In this paper, the modifications and simulated cases will be described and discussed.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics Using TRMM Rainfall Products from December 1997 to November 2002

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in straitform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMXX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM- LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The NASA-Langley Wake Vortex Modelling Effort in Support of an Operational Aircraft Spacing System

Two numerical modelling efforts, one using a large eddy simulation model and the other a numerical weather prediction model, are underway in support of NASA's Terminal Area Productivity program. The large-eddy simulation model (LES) has a meteorological framework and permits the interaction of wake vortices with environments characterized by crosswind shear, stratification, humidity, and atmospheric turbulence. Results from the numerical simulations are being used to assist in the development of algorithms for an operational wake-vortex aircraft spacing system. A mesoscale weather forecast model is being adapted for providing operational forecast of winds, temperature, and turbulence parameters to be used in the terminal area. This paper describes the goals and modelling approach, as well as achievements obtained to date. Simulation results will be presented from the LES model for both two and three dimensions. The 2-D model is found to be generally valid for studying wake vortex transport, while the 3-D approach is necessary for realistic treatment of decay via interaction of wake vortices and atmospheric boundary layer turbulence. Meteorology is shown to have an important affect on vortex transport and decay. Presented are results showing that wake vortex transport is unaffected by uniform fog or rain, but wake vortex transport can be strongly affected by nonlinear vertical change in the ambient crosswind. Both simulation and observations show that atmospheric vortices decay from the outside with minimal expansion of the core. Vortex decay and the onset three-dimensional instabilities are found to be enhanced by the presence of ambient turbulence.

Proctor, Fred H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics using TRMM Rainfall Products from December 1997 to November 2002

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America ) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in stratiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model. Review of other latent heating algorithms will be discussed in the workshop.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

[Relationship Between Core Convective Structure and Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones]

Tropical Storm Chantal during August 2001 was a storm that failed to intensify over the few days prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. An observational study of Tropical Storm Chantal is presented using a diverse data set including remote and in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 and the NOAA WP-3D N42RF aircraft and satellite data. The authors discuss the storm structure from the larger scale environment down to the convective scale. Large vertical shear (850-200 hPa shear magnitude range 8-15 m/s) plays a very important role in preventing Chantal from intensifying. The storm had a poorly defined vortex that only extended up to 5-6 km altitude, and an adjacent intense convective region that comprised an Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). The entire low-level circulation center was in the rain-free western side of the storm, about 80 km to the west-southwest of the MCS. The MCS appears to have been primarily the result of intense convergence between large scale, low-level easterly flow with embedded downdrafts, and the cyclonic vortex flow. The individual cells in the MCS such as Cell 2 during the period of the observations, were extremely intense with reflectivity core diameters of 10 km and peak updrafts exceeding 20 m/s. Associated with this MCS were two broad subsidence (warm) regions both of which had portions over the vortex. The first layer near 700 hPa was directly above the vortex and covered most of it. The second layer near 500 hPa was along the forward and right flanks of Cell 2 and undercut the anvil divergence region above. There was not much resemblance of these subsidence layers to typical upper level warm cores in hurricanes that are necessary to support strong surface winds and a low central pressure. The observations are compared to previous studies of weakly sheared storms and modeling studies of shear effects and intensification. The configuration of the convective updrafts, low-level circulation, and lack of vertical coherence between the upper and low level warming regions, likely inhibited intensification of Chantal. This configuration is consistent with modeling of vortices in sheared environments, which suggest strongest convection and rain in the downshear left quadrant of the storm, and subsidence in the upshear right quadrant. The vertical shear profile is however different from what was assumed in previous modeling in that the winds are strongest in the lowest levels and the deep tropospheric vertical shear is on the order of 10-12 m/s.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2005

WRF Simulation of the Genesis of Hurricane Javier (2004) in the Eastern Pacific

The Eastern Pacific has the highest frequency of genesis events per unit area of any region worldwide (Elsberry et al 1987). African easterly waves, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and topographic effects are thought to play roles in the genesis of tropical cyclones there (Frank and Clark 1980, Velasco and Fritsch 1987, Zehnder 1991, Zehnder and Gall 1991; Farfan and Zehnder 1997). Mozer and Zehnder (1996), using dry, idealized simulations of flow past a large-scale three-dimensional mountain range comparable to the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico, showed that upstream flow blocking led to diversion of the flow primarily to the south of the mountains. This flow diversion led to the formation of a low-level, barotropically unstable jet (at a location comparable to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec) and the continuous formation of synoptic-scale vorticity maxima, which they suggested may play a role in tropical cyclogenesis. Farfan and Zehnder (1 997) examined the synoptic-scale circulations that led to the formation of Hurricane Guillermo (1991). Using numerical simulations, they found that flow blocking led to the formation of a low-level easterly jet south of the mountains of Central America and a northeasterly (gap flow) jet over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which combined with the flow associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to produce a closed cyclonic circulation in the location of Guillermo s formation. As will be discussed in this paper, the evolution of the flow field that was associated with the genesis of Hurricane Javier was similar to that described in Farfan and Zehnder (1997), with well-defined topographic flow features. Here, using a high- resolution simulation with the WRF model, we investigate whether these topographically induced flows played a significant role in the genesis of Javier.

Braun, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Structure of Highly Sheared Tropical Storm Chantal during CAMEX-4

Tropical Storm Chantal during August 2001 was a storm that failed to intensify over the few days prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. An observational study of Tropical Storm Chantal is presented using a diverse dataset including remote and in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 and the NOAA WP-3D N42RF aircraft and satellite. The authors discuss the storm structure from the larger-scale environment down to the convective scale. Large vertical shear (850-200-hPa shear magnitude range 8-15 m/s) plays a very important role in preventing Chantal from intensifying. The storm had a poorly defined vortex that only extended up to 5-6-km altitude, and an adjacent intense convective region that comprised a mesoscale convective system (MCS). The entire low-level circulation center was in the rain-free western side of the storm, about 80 km to the west-southwest of the MCS. The MCS appears to have been primarily the result of intense convergence between large-scale, low-level easterly flow with embedded downdrafts, and the cyclonic vortex flow. The individual cells in the MCS such as cell 2 during the period of the observations were extremely intense, with reflectivity core diameters of 10 km and peak updrafts exceeding 20 m/s. Associated with this MCS were two broad subsidence (warm) regions, both of which had portions over the vortex. The first layer near 700 hPa was directly above the vortex and covered most of it. The second layer near 500 hPa was along the forward and right flanks of cell 2 and undercut the anvil divergence region above. There was not much resemblance of these subsidence layers to typical upper-level warm cores in hurricanes that are necessary to support strong surface winds and a low central pressure. The observations are compared to previous studies of weakly sheared storms and modeling studies of shear effects and intensification. The configuration of the convective updrafts, low-level circulation, and lack of vertical coherence between the upper- and lower-level warming regions likely inhibited intensification of Chantal. This configuration is consistent with modeled vortices in sheared environments, which suggest the strongest convection and rain in the downshear left quadrant of the storm, and subsidence in the upshear right quadrant. The vertical shear profile is, however, different from what was assumed in previous modeling in that the winds are strongest in the lowest levels and the deep tropospheric vertical shear is on the order of 10-12 m/s.

Heymsfield, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Diurnal Lightning Distributions as Observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS)

Data obtained from the Optical Transient Detector (April 1995 to March 2000) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (December 1997 to December 2005) satellites (70 and 35 inclination low earth orbits, respectively) are used to statistically determine the number of flashes in the annual and seasonal diurnal cycle as a function of local and universal time. The data are further subdivided by season, land versus ocean, northern versus southern hemisphere, and other spatial (e.g., continents) and temporal (e.g., time of peak diurnal amplitude) categories. The data include corrections for detection efficiency and instrument view time. Continental results display strong diurnal variation, with a lightning peak in the late afternoon and a minimum in late morning. In regions of the world dominated by large mesoscale convective systems the peak in the diurnal curve shifts toward late evening or early morning hours. The maximum diurnal flash rate occurs in June-August, corresponding to the Northern Hemisphere summer, while the minimum occurs in December-February. Summer lightning dominates over winter activity and springtime lightning dominates over autumn activity at most continental locations. This latter behavior occurs especially strongly over the Amazon region in South America in September-November. Oceanic lightning activity in winter and autumn tends to exceed that in summer and spring. Global lightning is well correlated in phase but not in amplitude with the Carnegie curve. The diurnal flash rate varies about 4-35 percent about the mean, while the Carnegie curve varies around 4-15 percent.

Bailey, Jeff C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Precipitation Climatology over Mediterranean Basin from Ten Years of TRMM Measurements

Climatological features of mesoscale rain activities over the Mediterranean region between 5 W-40 E and 28 N-48 N are examined using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and 2A25 rain products. The 3B42 rainrates at 3-hourly, 0.25 deg x 0.25 deg spatial resolution for the last 10 years (January 1998 to July 2007) are used to form and analyze the 5-day mean and monthly mean climatology of rainfall. Results show considerable regional and seasonal differences of rainfall over the Mediterranean Region. The maximum rainfall (3-5 mm/day) occurs over the mountain regions of Europe, while the minimum rainfall is observed over North Africa (approximately 0.5 mm/day). The main rainy season over the Mediterranean Sea extends from October to March, with maximum rainfall occurring during November-December. Over the Mediterranean Sea, an average rainrate of approximately 1-2 mm/day is observed, but during the rainy season there is 20% larger rainfall over the western Mediterranean Sea than that over the eastern Mediterranean Sea. During the rainy season, mesoscale rain systems generally propagate from west to east and from north to south over the Mediterranean region, likely to be associated with Mediterranean cyclonic disturbances resulting from interactions among large-scale circulation, orography, and land-sea temperature contrast.

Mehta, Amita V.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Evidence of Mineral Dust Altering Cloud Microphysics and Precipitation

Multi-platform and multi-sensor observations are employed to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective systems. It is clearly evident that for a given convection strength,small hydrometeors were more prevalent in the stratiform rain regions with dust than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust sector, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation process of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the precipitation size spectrum from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately suppressing precipitation.

Min, Qilong↗
NASA NTRS2008

Online Visualization and Analysis of Merged Global Geostationary Satellite Infrared Dataset

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC) is home of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data archive. The global merged IR product also known as the NCEP/CPC 4-km Global (60 degrees N - 60 degrees S) IR Dataset, is one of TRMM ancillary datasets. They are globally merged (60 degrees N - 60 degrees S) pixel-resolution (4 km) IR brightness temperature data (equivalent blackbody temperatures), merged from all available geostationary satellites (GOES-8/10, METEOSAT-7/5 and GMS). The availability of data from METEOSAT-5, which is located at 63E at the present time, yields a unique opportunity for total global (60 degrees N- 60 degrees S) coverage. The GES DISC has collected over 8 years of the data beginning from February of 2000. This high temporal resolution dataset can not only provide additional background information to TRMM and other satellite missions, but also allow observing a wide range of meteorological phenomena from space, such as, mesoscale convection systems, tropical cyclones, hurricanes, etc. The dataset can also be used to verify model simulations. Despite that the data can be downloaded via ftp, however, its large volume poses a challenge for many users. A single file occupies about 70 MB disk space and there is a total of approximately 73,000 files (approximately 4.5 TB) for the past 8 years. In order to facilitate data access, we have developed a web prototype to allow users to conduct online visualization and analysis of this dataset. With a web browser and few mouse clicks, users can have a full access to over 8 year and over 4.5 TB data and generate black and white IR imagery and animation without downloading any software and data. In short, you can make your own images! Basic functions include selection of area of interest, single imagery or animation, a time skip capability for different temporal resolution and image size. Users can save an animation as a file (animated gif) and import it in other presentation software, such as, Microsoft PowerPoint. The prototype will be integrated into GIOVANNI and existing GIOVANNI capabilities, such as, data download, Google Earth KMZ, etc will be available. Users will also be able to access other data products in the GIOVANNI family.

Liu, Zhong↗
NASA NTRS2009

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes: Cloud Microphysics and Storm Dynamics Interactions - Part 2

Part I of this paper compares two simulations, one using a bulk and the other a detailed bin microphysical scheme, of a long-lasting, continental mesoscale convective system with leading convection and trailing stratiform region. Diagnostic studies and sensitivity tests are carried out in Part II to explain the simulated contrasts in the spatial and temporal variations by the two microphysical schemes and to understand the interactions between cloud microphysics and storm dynamics. It is found that the fixed raindrop size distribution in the bulk scheme artificially enhances rain evaporation rate and produces a stronger near surface cool pool compared with the bin simulation. In the bulk simulation, cool pool circulation dominates the near-surface environmental wind shear in contrast to the near-balance between cool pool and wind shear in the bin simulation. This is the main reason for the contrasting quasi-steady states simulated in Part I. Sensitivity tests also show that large amounts of fast-falling hail produced in the original bulk scheme not only result in a narrow trailing stratiform region but also act to further exacerbate the strong cool pool simulated in the bulk parameterization. An empirical formula for a correction factor, r(q(sub r)) = 0.11q(sub r)(exp -1.27) + 0.98, is developed to correct the overestimation of rain evaporation in the bulk model, where r is the ratio of the rain evaporation rate between the bulk and bin simulations and q(sub r)(g per kilogram) is the rain mixing ratio. This formula offers a practical fix for the simple bulk scheme in rain evaporation parameterization.

Li, Xiaowen↗
NASA NTRS2010

Investigation of the 2006 Drought and 2007 Flood Extremes at the Southern Great Plains Through an Integrative Analysis of Observations

Hydrological years 2006 (HY06, 10/2005-09/2006) and 2007 (HY07, 10/2006-09/2007) provide a unique opportunity to examine hydrological extremes in the central US because there are no other examples of two such highly contrasting precipitation extremes occurring in consecutive years at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in recorded history. The HY06 annual precipitation in the state of Oklahoma, as observed by the Oklahoma Mesonet, is around 61% of the normal (92.84 cm, based on the 1921-2008 climatology), which results in HY06 the second-driest year in the record. In particular, the total precipitation during the winter of 2005-06 is only 27% of the normal, and this winter ranks as the driest season. On the other hand, the HY07 annual precipitation amount is 121% of the normal and HY07 ranks as the seventh-wettest year for the entire state and the wettest year for the central region of the state. Summer 2007 is the second-wettest season for the state. Large-scale dynamics play a key role in these extreme events. During the extreme dry period (10/2005-02/2006), a dipole pattern in the 500-hPa GH anomaly existed where an anomalous high was over the southwestern U.S. region and an anomalous low was over the Great Lakes. This pattern is associated with inhibited moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and strong sinking motion over the SGP, both contributing to the extreme dryness. The precipitation deficit over the SGP during the extreme dry period is clearly linked to significantly suppressed cyclonic activity over the southwestern U.S., which shows robust relationship with the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The precipitation events during the extreme wet period (May-July 2007) were initially generated by active synoptic weather patterns, linked with moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico by the northward low level jet, and enhanced by the mesoscale convective systems. Although the drought and pluvial conditions are dominated by large-scale dynamic patterns, we have demonstrated that the two positive feedback processes during the extreme dry and wet periods found in this study play a key role to maintain and reinforce the length and severity of existing drought and flood events. For example, during the extreme dry period, with less clouds, LWP, PWV, precipitation, and thinner Cu cloud thickness, more net radiation was absorbed and used to evaporate water from the ground. The evaporated moisture, however, was removed by low-level divergence. Thus, with less precipitation and removed atmospheric moisture, more absorbed incoming solar radiation was used to increase surface temperature and to make the ground drier.

Dong, Xiquan↗