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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Energy Storage

This Energy Exchange 2024 session explores Energy Storage, from currently available to cutting edge systems, and explores benefits and shortcomings related to key mission goals of sustainment, resilience, and emissions reduction. Specifically, this session will explore advancements in long-duration energy storage, organic flow batteries, and rechargeable/non-rechargeable storage. Additionally, we will explore usage advantages (DoD, Commercial, Utility, Residential), system sustainment issues and challenges, and advantages/disadvantages in the integration into existing and legacy electrical systems. The Panel will have a mix of DoD, commercial, and lab/academic experts.

emissions↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Limits of EM Based Detection of Control Logic Injection Attacks In Noisy Environments

The difficulty in applying traditional security mechanisms in Industrial Control System (ICS) environments makes a large portion of these mission-critical assets vulnerable to cyber attacks. Therefore, there is a dire need for the development of novel security mechanisms specifically designed to protect such critical systems. Recently a lot of attention has been given to mechanisms that exploit the EM emanations of devices for defense purposes. Such practices may lead to the development of robust external and non-intrusive anomaly detection systems. Nevertheless, the majority of current work in the area neglects to consider the implications of real-life environments, particularly environmental noise. In this work, we explore the limits of EM-based anomaly detection towards identifying injection attacks in control logic software in noisy environments. Our study conducted upon both synthetically generated and real signals identified that indeed environmental noise might significantly degrade the accuracy of the anomaly detection process. Experiments done upon synthetic data indicated that assuming that signals are captured with high sampling rates, even minor code injections can be detected with above-90% accuracy in noisy environments where SNR is up to -2dB. This is true even if naive detection methods are considered. Moreover, experiments done using a real-life testbed attest that even single-instruction injections can be detected with near-perfect accuracy in relatively clean environments. Finally, noise-elimination techniques can drastically improve the reliability of the detection mechanism even in noisy environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

GDSA PFLOTRAN Development (FY2021)

The Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Spent Fuel & Waste Disposition (SFWD) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). A high priority for SFWST disposal R&D is to develop a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes fiscal year (FY) 2021 advances of the PFLOTRAN Development group of the SFWST Campaign. The mission of this group is to develop a geologic disposal system modeling capability for nuclear waste that can be used to probabilistically assess the performance of generic disposal concepts. In FY 2021, development proceeded along three main thrusts: software infrastructure, code performance, and process model advancement. Software infrastructure improvements included implementing an Agile software development framework and making improvements to the QA Test Suite. Code performance improvements included development of advanced linear and nonlinear solvers as well as design of flexible smoothing algorithms for capillary pressure functions. Process modeling advancements included the addition of flexible thermal conductivity function definitions and refinement of multi-continuum reactive transport to support Sandia’s participation in DECOVALEX

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

PFLOTRAN Development FY2022

The Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Spent Fuel & Waste Disposition (SFWD) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). A high priority for SFWST disposal R&D is to develop a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes fiscal year (FY) 2022 accomplishments by the PFLOTRAN Development group of the SFWST Campaign. The mission of this group is to develop a geologic disposal system modeling capability for nuclear waste that can be used to probabilistically assess the performance of generic disposal concepts. In FY 2022, the PFLOTRAN development team made several advancements to our software infrastructure, code performance, and process modeling capabilities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

PFLOTRAN Development FY2021

The Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Spent Fuel & Waste Disposition (SFWD) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). A high priority for SFWST disposal R&D is to develop a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for valuating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes fiscal year (FY) 2021 advances of the PFLOTRAN Development group of the SFWST Campaign. The mission of this group is to develop a geologic disposal system modeling capability for nuclear waste that can be used to probabilistically assess the performance of generic disposal concepts. In FY 2021, development proceeded along three main thrusts: software infrastructure, code performance, and process model advancement. Software infrastructure improvements included implementing an Agile software development framework and making improvements to the QA Test Suite. Code performance improvements included development of advanced linear and nonlinear solvers as well as design of flexible smoothing algorithms for capillary pressure functions. Process modeling advancements included the addition of flexible thermal conductivity function definitions and refinement of multi-continuum reactive transport to support Sandia’s participation in DECOVALEX. This report fulfills the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development Work Package Level 3 Milestone – PFLOTRAN Development, FY2021, M3SF-21SN010304072.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

CRiSPPy: An advanced hydropower scheduling tool for the Colorado River Storage Project

The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) plays a vital role in delivering reliable and cost-effective hydroelectric power to millions of customers across the western United States. The Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) carries out WAPA’s mission in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Wyoming and Texas. Achieving this mission requires effective management of the Colorado River system, and depends on the use of advanced analytical tools and modeling methodologies. For many years, CRSP has relied on the Generation and Transmission Maximization Superlite (GTMax SL) model for its mid-term and long-term hydroscheduling needs. However, the evolving energy market, power system operations, environmental rules, and hydrology conditions, coupled with advancements in computational capabilities, have necessitated the development of a more modern and robust solution. This report introduces the Colorado River Storage Project Python-based (CRiSPPy) model, a new, advanced hydropower scheduling tool developed to address CRSP ever-evolving challenges. CRiSPPy represents a significant leap forward in our ability to model and optimize the operation of the Colorado River system. It incorporates state-of-the-art optimization algorithms, enhanced data management capabilities, and an advanced graphical user interface, providing WAPA CRSP personnel with unprecedented insights and decision-making support. This document details the development, capabilities, and implementation of CRiSPPy. It is intended to serve as a comprehensive resource for WAPA staff, stakeholders, and anyone interested in the future of hydropower scheduling in the Colorado River Basin. We are confident that CRiSPPy will enhance WAPA's mission while adapting to the challenges of a dynamic and increasingly complex environment. The version of CRiSPPy described in this report is the version 2.3. New versions of CRiSPPy will be developed as the tool keeps evolving to address CRSP challenges.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Materials Challenges and Opportunities for Energy Generation, Conversion, Delivery, and Storage (Applied Energy Tri-Laboratory Consortium Workshop Report)

This report documents the outcomes of the Tri-Laboratory Materials Workshop that was held July 31 and August 1, 2019 to begin addressing the needs, opportunities, and challenges associated with the development, fabrication, and testing of the needed materials and components for integrated hybrid energy systems (i.e., incorporating nuclear, fossil, and renewables for electric and thermal applications). This was accomplished by assembling the research program leads and principal investigators at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), who support the research and development of new technology and system integration. The team then identified and prioritized key materials development needs. This effort was intended to enhance communications and synergy among the Tri-Lab partners. Advanced functional and structural materials are central to transformative energy technologies for energy generation, conversion, delivery, and storage. With that in mind, the workshop focused on identifying and assessing the foundational materials research needs at both the basic and applied levels. Materials challenges include the ability to withstand harsh environments, such as high temperatures and pressures, corrosion, oxidation, or irradiation while maintaining flexible mission profiles and long service lifespans. Advanced energy system material challenges and needs range from materials for the capture, upgrading/concentration, storage, and delivery of low-grade heat to materials for high temperature environments that involve liquid metals, molten salt, and very high temperature gas heat delivery and storage systems. Material improvements are needed for hybrid energy systems due to accelerated corrosion and stress-fatigue failure of materials and equipment, which results from increased frequency and amplitude of thermal, mechanical, and electrical cycling of systems components. Multifunctional materials are needed for high temperature solid-oxide fuel cells, advanced electrochemical reactors, and in-process separation. Relative to materials manufacturing, application of advanced additive and subtractive methods need to be understood to develop both thin-layer homogenous materials and materials of graded composition. Materials modeling and machine learning will be critical to accelerate the design and production of power electronics, and nuclear reactor materials and fuel, as well as to gain an understanding of beneficial materials phenomena or deleterious microstructure evolution. There is also a need for standardized models, computational structures, data reporting protocols and modeling tools across the three laboratories. This would allow consistent results, analysis, and data sharing. Combining computational capabilities between the three laboratories (e.g., hardware, software) would greatly increase computational capabilities and throughput. The workshop identified the need for laboratories to anticipate and address problems that will occur during scale-up. Laboratory work must connect with industry to ensure that research focuses on processes that are scalable and marketable. Industry input and perspective are essential to guide laboratory research to meet these requirements and deploy new technology in industrial demonstrations. Another aspect of scale-up is the integration of multiple systems since new challenges often arise at the subsystem interfaces. Establishing a scale-up manufacturing demonstration/pilot plant, potentially as an industrial user facility, would be beneficial to the laboratories and industry. That modular scale-up manufacturing demonstration/pilot plant would allow researchers to find and resolve interface problems that cannot be identified by focusing only on individual parts. Communication exchanges among the organizers, attendees, and workshop survey responses indicate that the workshop was successful in achieving its goal to identify key technology gaps and research needs. Strong positive feedback was received on the sharing of ideas, capabilities, talent, and passion to move forward on the materials-related action items.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geochemistry in support of LANL's national and energy security missions [Slides]

Geochemistery is a field of science that uses chemistry to explain processes occurring within geological systems. It can encompass interconnected fields of geology, hydrology, biology, and atmospheric science as they relate to natural processes in the environment. Geochemistry can play an important role in mission-critical LANL research areas of science of signatures and complex natural and engineered systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enabling Capabilities and Resources: 2024 Principal Investigator Meeting Proceedings

As a major supporter of basic genome-enabled research, BER’s Biological Systems Science Division (BSSD) fosters scientific discovery by funding - fundamental biological research across disciplines in conjunction with enabling investigational tools and computational capabilities that include world-class user facilities. The overarching goal of BSSD is to provide the necessary fundamental science to understand, predict, manipulate, and design biological systems that underpin innovations for bioenergy and bioproduct production and enhance understanding of natural, DOE-relevant environmental processes (Biological Systems Science Division Strategic Plan, 2021). To accelerate the U.S. bioeconomy, BSSD pursues innovative science underpinning advances in sustainable biofuels and bioproducts and the development of next-generation technologies and computational resources for systems biology research. The 2024 BSSD Enabling Capabilities and Resources (ECR) Principal Investigator (PI) meeting brought together PIs across the BSSD ECR portfolio to confer on shared interests and opportunities. The meeting was held concurrently with the Genomic Science program (GSP) PI meeting to optimize collaboration on research to advance bioenergy and the bioeconomy. Rick Stevens of Argonne National Laboratory gave a keynote on How Generative Artificial Intelligence Can Impact Biological Research (see Keynote: How Generative Artificial Intelligence Can Impact Biological Research, this page). Plenary presentations included several joint sessions that illuminated the integration and understanding of the larger BSSD mission. GSP’s objective is to provide systems-level understanding of plants, microbes, and their communities through its Bioenergy Research, Biosystems Design, and Environmental Microbiome Research portfolios. The objective of the ECR portfolio is to support development of computational and instrumental platforms to advance fundamental GSP research—and BER more broadly— toward the overall goal of understanding the functional principles of living systems and their response to environmental challenges.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Metaoptics Enabled Multifunctional Imaging

Despite the fact that most microorganisms occupy two- and three-dimensional space in heterogeneous arrangements and in proximity to other microorganisms of different species, much of our current knowledge about their metabolic processes is derived from homogenizing, then analyzing, the chemical content of cultures containing a single microbial species. This project addressed this fundamental dichotomy by developing a set of optical imaging principles combining multiple new technologies. The imaging strategies developed in this project combine metaoptics structures with active in situ nanoscale control of the chemical environment and applied them to a microbial system, Myxococcus xanthus, with particular relevance to the DoE mission. The combination of metaoptical architectures and nanoscale control over the molecular environment enables: (a) precise control over the electromagnetic (EM) field at length scales smaller than the wavelength of light; (b) control of the interaction of the EM field with critical molecular systems in DOE relevant microbes; (c) control over the chemical environment – especially the presence and quantity of reactive oxygen species (ROS) that can affect redox homeostasis; and (d) the ability to ask new kinds of questions not accessible to ‘omics’ approaches or standard methods of biological imaging. These capabilities are applicable to detailed studies of metabolic pathways in microbes and to lignocellulosic biomass deconstruction. To accomplish these objectives, we pursued two over-arching technical goals: (1) the development of new metaoptics-enabled approaches to imaging and spectroscopic characterization; and (2) the development of tools to control the chemical environment of a microbial sample with nanometer-scale precision. Goal 1 was addressed through the design, fabrication, and characterization of new metasurfaces capable of super-resolution imaging through extreme confinement of the optical field. Goal 2 was addressed by controlling the redox potential on the nanoscale in microbial communities and characterizing their effect on intrinsic bacterial fluorophores which act as molecular sentinels and through characterization of soluble factors secreted by Myxococcus xanthus by confocal Raman imaging. The optical imaging/sensing approaches developed here make it possible to use these powerful new imaging and sensing modalities in metabolic studies by making it possible to visualize and track the spatial and temporal expression patterns of natural or engineered pathways in microorganisms.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Q-18: Advanced System Development Fact Sheet

Q-18 provides Systems and Design Engineering for Future Weapons Systems and Technology up to Phase 3 or 6.3 with emphasis on improved performance, safety, produceability and agility of the future stockpile. The group regulars engages and partners with DoD customers, NNSA as well as other divisions across the LANL campus including to complete its mission. The group is forward leaning and provides Future System and System Agnostic Design and System Engineering support to a wide range of experiments from internally fielded technology tests to hydrodynamic and subcritical experiments including fabrication for small component level to full scale prototypes and test articles, test article assembly, and mechanical and electrical design.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

MORS Phalax Ad for Systems Analysis

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, applying cutting-edge science and technology to challenging security questions is an everyday thing. Systems Analysis is one way we solve problems—by bringing analytic rigor to missions like strategic deterrence and critical infrastructure defense. Working with the brightest minds in science, technology, and engineering, systems analysts at LLNL bring state-of-the-art analytic tools to bear on problems of national importance. From ensuring the safety, security, and effectiveness of our nation’s nuclear stockpile to shaping the future of inertial fusion energy—if you have a penchant for problem-solving using modeling and analysis tools—we have a place for you.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

The K2 and TESS Synergy. I. Updated Ephemerides and Parameters for K2-114, K2-167, K2-237, and K2-261

Although the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) primary mission observed the northern and southern ecliptic hemispheres, generally avoiding the ecliptic, and the Kepler space telescope during the K2 mission could only observe near the ecliptic, many of the K2 fields extend far enough from the ecliptic plane that sections overlap with TESS fields. Using photometric observations from both K2 and TESS, combined with archival spectroscopic observations, we globally modeled four known planetary systems discovered by K2 that were observed in the first year of the primary TESS mission. Specifically, we provide updated ephemerides and system parameters for K2-114 b, K2-167 b, K2-237 b, and K2-261 b. These were some of the first K2 planets to be observed by TESS in the first year and include three Jovian sized planets and a sub-Neptune with orbital periods less than 12 days. In each case, the updated ephemeris significantly reduces the uncertainty in prediction of future times of transit, which is valuable for planning observations with the James Webb Space Telescope and other future facilities. The TESS extended mission is expected to observe about half of the K2 fields, providing the opportunity to perform this type of analysis on a larger number of systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

PHEV Distribution Grid Integration and Smart Systems Testing: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report

To continue NREL's mission, which includes preparing technologies and markets with "speed and scale," NREL researchers will collaborate with Toyota on plug-in electric vehicle technology. Toyota will provide a collection of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles ("PHEVs" [and ultimately including PEVs], collectively, the "Vehicles") to conduct infrastructure interaction testing at NREL facilities. NREL will use available resources in the Vehicle Testing and Integration Facility (VTIF), its staff parking garage with numerous commercial Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment ("EVSEs"), and its Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) to safely execute research experiments that highlight potential distribution system power quality challenges related to plug-in electric vehicles. The expected outcome of this project is a better understanding of the correlation of individual vehicle power quality attributes to a system of vehicles on a distribution network. The data collected and the simulations conducted will be used to guide future experiments and project development that aid in the deployment of plug-in electric vehicles ("PEV").

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Annual Scientific Focus Area Report for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Project: Phase II

The project's long-term goal is to assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system models that address the grand challenge of actionable predictions of Earth system variability and change, with an emphasis on the most critical scientific questions facing the nation and DOE. The grand challenge will be addressed by overcoming three major limitations: Pushing the high-resolution frontier of Earth system modeling through a combination of strategic model development and computational advances targeting exascale computers and beyond. Bridging the gap in scales and processes by developing a new class of models that couple the natural, managed, and man-made systems across scales to address energy sector vulnerability to variability and change. The project will achieve its goal through four intersecting project elements: A series of prediction and simulation experiments addressing scientific questions and mission needs; A well-documented and tested, continuously advancing, evolving, and improving system of model codes that comprise the E3SM Earth system model; The ability to use effectively leading (and “bleeding”) edge computational facilities soon after their deployment at DOE national laboratories; and An infrastructure to support code development, hypothesis testing, simulation execution, and analysis of results. To achieve the Grand Challenge of actionable Earth system predictions to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and DOE, the E3SM project defined its strategy in a fifteen-year roadmap with four intersecting project elements: A series of prediction and simulation experiments addressing scientific questions and mission needs; A well-documented and tested, continuously advancing, evolving, and improving system of model codes that comprise the E3SM Earth system model ; The ability to use effectively leading (and “bleeding”) edge computational facilities soon after their deployment at DOE national laboratories; and An infrastructure to support code development, hypothesis testing, simulation execution, and analysis of results. Figure 1 depicts the E3SM Project Roadmap, showing the relationships among the first three major project elements: the simulations, the modeling system to perform those simulations, and the machines on which they will be executed. Unlike the other three elements that have distinct but overlapping phases, the fourth element, the infrastructure, will evolve continuously based on the requirements imposed by project needs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗