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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11

Radiation model predictions and validation using LDEF satellite data

Predictions and comparisons with the radiation dose measurements on Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) by thermoluminescent dosimeters were made to evaluate the accuracy of models currently used in defining the ionizing radiation environment for low Earth orbit missions. The calculations include a detailed simulation of the radiation exposure (altitude and solar cycle variations, directional dependence) and shielding effects (three-dimensional LDEF geometry model) so that differences in the predicted and observed doses can be attributed to environment model uncertainties. The LDEF dose data are utilized to assess the accuracy of models describing the trapped proton flux, the trapped proton directionality, and the trapped electron flux.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

Accuracy Improvement in Magnetic Field Modeling for an Axisymmetric Electromagnet

This paper examines the accuracy and calculation speed for the magnetic field computation in an axisymmetric electromagnet. Different numerical techniques, based on an adaptive nonuniform grid, high order finite difference approximations, and semi-analitical calculation of boundary conditions are considered. These techniques are being applied to the modeling of the Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket. For high-accuracy calculations, a fourth-order scheme offers dramatic advantages over a second order scheme. For complex physical configurations of interest in plasma propulsion, a second-order scheme with nonuniform mesh gives the best results. Also, the relative advantages of various methods are described when the speed of computation is an important consideration.

Ilin, Andrew V.↗

The empirical accuracy of uncertain inference models

Uncertainty is a pervasive feature of the domains in which expert systems are designed to function. Research design to test uncertain inference methods for accuracy and robustness, in accordance with standard engineering practice is reviewed. Several studies were conducted to assess how well various methods perform on problems constructed so that correct answers are known, and to find out what underlying features of a problem cause strong or weak performance. For each method studied, situations were identified in which performance deteriorates dramatically. Over a broad range of problems, some well known methods do only about as well as a simple linear regression model, and often much worse than a simple independence probability model. The results indicate that some commercially available expert system shells should be used with caution, because the uncertain inference models that they implement can yield rather inaccurate results.

Vaughan, David S.↗

Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

Modeling uncertainty is defined in terms of the difference between predicted and measured eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Data compiled from 22 sets of analysis/test results was used to create statistical databases for large truss-type space structures and both pretest and posttest models of conventional satellite-type space structures. Modeling uncertainty is propagated through the model to produce intervals of uncertainty on frequency response functions, both amplitude and phase. This methodology was used successfully to evaluate the predictive accuracy of several structures, including the NASA CSI Evolutionary Structure tested at Langley Research Center. Test measurements for this structure were within + one-sigma intervals of predicted accuracy for the most part, demonstrating the validity of the methodology and computer code.

Hasselman, Timothy K.↗

Computing Incompressible Flows With Free Surfaces

RIPPLE computer program models transient, two-dimensional flows of incompressible fluids with surface tension on free surfaces of general shape. Surface tension modeled as volume force derived from continuum-surface-force model, giving RIPPLE both robustness and accuracy in modeling surface-tension effects at free surface. Also models wall adhesion effects. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Kothe, D.↗

Damage Diagnosis in Semiconductive Materials Using Electrical Impedance Measurements

Recent aerospace industry trends have resulted in an increased demand for real-time, effective techniques for in-flight structural health monitoring. A promising technique for damage diagnosis uses electrical impedance measurements of semiconductive materials. By applying a small electrical current into a material specimen and measuring the corresponding voltages at various locations on the specimen, changes in the electrical characteristics due to the presence of damage can be assessed. An artificial neural network uses these changes in electrical properties to provide an inverse solution that estimates the location and magnitude of the damage. The advantage of the electrical impedance method over other damage diagnosis techniques is that it uses the material as the sensor. Simple voltage measurements can be used instead of discrete sensors, resulting in a reduction in weight and system complexity. This research effort extends previous work by employing finite element method models to improve accuracy of complex models with anisotropic conductivities and by enhancing the computational efficiency of the inverse techniques. The paper demonstrates a proof of concept of a damage diagnosis approach using electrical impedance methods and a neural network as an effective tool for in-flight diagnosis of structural damage to aircraft components.

Ross, Richard W.↗

State-of-the-art satellite laser range modeling for geodetic and oceanographic applications

Significant improvements have been made in the modeling and accuracy of Satellite Laser Range (SLR) data since the launch of LAGEOS in 1976. Some of these include: improved models of the static geopotential, solid-Earth and ocean tides, more advanced atmospheric drag models, and the adoption of the J2000 reference system with improved nutation and precession. Site positioning using SLR systems currently yield approximately 2 cm static and 5 mm/y kinematic descriptions of the geocentric location of these sites. Incorporation of a large set of observations from advanced Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) tracking systems have directly made major contributions to the gravitational fields and in advancing the state-of-the-art in precision orbit determination. SLR is the baseline tracking system for the altimeter bearing TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 satellites and thus, will play an important role in providing the Conventional Terrestrial Reference Frame for instantaneously locating the geocentric position of the ocean surface over time, in providing an unchanging range standard for altimeter range calibration, and for improving the geoid models to separate gravitational from ocean circulation signals seen in the sea surface. Nevertheless, despite the unprecedented improvements in the accuracy of the models used to support orbit reduction of laser observations, there still remain systematic unmodeled effects which limit the full exploitation of modern SLR data.

Klosko, Steve M.↗

On the accuracy of recent Goddard gravity models

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has occupied a central position within NASA with respect to the development of earth gravity models. The gravity models at Goddard, which are referred to as the Goddard earth models (GEM's) have been under development for more than 15 years. The fields have increased in size and (apparent) accuracy with the inclusion of new tracking data, better nongravitational force modeling, and more orbits over a wide range of inclinations and mean motions. The usefulness of the considered models depends largely on accuracy estimates. The present paper is concerned with a reevaluation of earlier accuracy assessments, taking into account the accuracies of the GEM 9 and the GEM-L2 models. It is found that GEM 9 is about 30 percent more accurate than originally estimated in 1979 from older gravimetry data.

Lerch, F. J.↗

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Core Physics and Kinetics Calculations for the Fissioning Plasma Core Reactor

Highly efficient, compact nuclear reactors would provide high specific impulse spacecraft propulsion. This analysis and numerical simulation effort has focused on the technical feasibility issues related to the nuclear design characteristics of a novel reactor design. The Fissioning Plasma Core Reactor (FPCR) is a shockwave-driven gaseous-core nuclear reactor, which uses Magneto Hydrodynamic effects to generate electric power to be used for propulsion. The nuclear design of the system depends on two major calculations: core physics calculations and kinetics calculations. Presently, core physics calculations have concentrated on the use of the MCNP4C code. However, initial results from other codes such as COMBINE/VENTURE and SCALE4a. are also shown. Several significant modifications were made to the ISR-developed QCALC1 kinetics analysis code. These modifications include testing the state of the core materials, an improvement to the calculation of the material properties of the core, the addition of an adiabatic core temperature model and improvement of the first order reactivity correction model. The accuracy of these modifications has been verified, and the accuracy of the point-core kinetics model used by the QCALC1 code has also been validated. Previously calculated kinetics results for the FPCR were described in the ISR report, "QCALC1: A code for FPCR Kinetics Model Feasibility Analysis" dated June 1, 2002.

Butler, C.↗

Database of Properties of Meteors

A database of properties of meteors, and software that provides access to the database, are being developed as a contribution to continuing efforts to model the characteristics of meteors with increasing accuracy. Such modeling is necessary for evaluation of the risk of penetration of spacecraft by meteors. For each meteor in the database, the record will include an identification, date and time, radiant properties, ballistic coefficient, radar cross section, size, density, and orbital elements. The property of primary interest in the present case is density, and one of the primary goals in this case is to derive densities of meteors from their atmospheric decelerations. The database and software are expected to be valid anywhere in the solar system. The database will incorporate new data plus results of meteoroid analyses that, heretofore, have not been readily available to the aerospace community. Taken together, the database and software constitute a model that is expected to provide improved estimates of densities and to result in improved risk analyses for interplanetary spacecraft. It is planned to distribute the database and software on a compact disk.

Suggs, Rob↗

Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

Uncertainty of frequency response using the fuzzy set method and on-orbit response prediction using laboratory test data to refine an analytical model are emphasized with respect to large space structures. Two aspects of the fuzzy set approach were investigated relative to its application to large structural dynamics problems: (1) minimizing the number of parameters involved in computing possible intervals; and (2) the treatment of extrema which may occur in the parameter space enclosed by all possible combinations of the important parameters of the model. Extensive printer graphics were added to the SSID code to help facilitate model verification, and an application of this code to the LaRC Ten Bay Truss is included in the appendix to illustrate this graphics capability.

Hasselman, T. K.↗

Modeling the Swift BAT Trigger Algorithm with Machine Learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. (2014) is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of approximately greater than 97% (approximately less than 3% error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux which has an accuracy of 89:6% (10:4% error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of eta(sub 0) approximately 0.48(+0.41/-0.23) Gpc(exp -3) yr(exp -1) with power-law indices of eta(sub 1) approximately 1.7(+0.6/-0.5) and eta(sub 2) approximately -5.9(+5.7/-0.1) for GRBs above and below a break point of z(sub 1) approximately 6.8(+2.8/-3.2). This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting. The code used in this is analysis is publicly available online.

gamma rays: general↗

Modeling the Swift Bat Trigger Algorithm with Machine Learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift / BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of greater than or equal to 97 percent (less than or equal to 3 percent error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux, which has an accuracy of 89.6 percent (10.4 percent error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of n (sub 0) approaching 0.48 (sup plus 0.41) (sub minus 0.23) per cubic gigaparsecs per year with power-law indices of n (sub 1) approaching 1.7 (sup plus 0.6) (sub minus 0.5) and n (sub 2) approaching minus 5.9 (sup plus 5.7) (sub minus 0.1) for GRBs above and below a break point of z (redshift) (sub 1) approaching 6.8 (sup plus 2.8) (sub minus 3.2). This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting.

gamma-ray burst: general – gamma-rays: general â↗