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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

An integrated coupling model for solving multiscale fluid-fluid coupling problems in SAM code

In this study, an integrated coupling method has been developed for solving multiscale fluid-fluid coupling problems in plant-scale safety analysis models in SAM (System Analysis Module) code. In this method, a higher-fidelity multi-dimensional (3D) flow module is used for reactor components of complex flow features (e.g., reactor core) and a lumped parameter one-dimensional (1D) flow module for plant-scale flow loops (e.g., primary loop pipe network), respectively. In this method, the 3D fluid equation/domain and 1D fluid equation/domain are tightly coupled at the residual level and solved simultaneously using the Newton’s method to overcome the convergence issues typically seen in existing approaches like separate domain approach, where the 3D fluid equation and 1D fluid equation are solved separately. Extensive and successful code verifications and demonstrations have been performed for this newly developed method. This new modeling approach significantly simplify the work flow in developing high-fidelity plant-scale safety analysis model, e.g. for pool-type reactors and pebble-bed reactors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated transient modeling of gas turbine and sCO2 power cycle for exhaust heat recovery application

For distributed generation installations, the transient response of the power generation system is critical to meet power quality (voltage and frequency) requirements. Transient models for gas turbine and supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycle were integrated for an exhaust heat recovery bottoming cycle system for a distributed generation application. The transient model for the SGT-750 Siemens gas turbine was a ‘black-box’ functional mockup interface (FMI) model developed by Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery in $Finsp\mathring{a}ng$, Sweden. The SGT-750 is a twin-shaft gas turbine that produces 40 MW electricity with an efficiency of about 40% at ISO conditions. At 100% gas turbine throttle (load), the SGT-750 has average exhaust conditions of 114.6 kg/s and 469.8 °C.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An integrated experimental–modeling approach to identify key processes for carbon mineralization in fractured mafic and ultramafic rocks

Abstract Controlling atmospheric warming requires immediate reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, as well as the active removal and sequestration of CO2 from current point sources. One promising proposed strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels is geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), where CO2 is injected into the subsurface and reacts with the formation to precipitate carbonate minerals. Rapid mineralization has recently been reported for field tests in mafic and ultramafic rocks. However, unlike saline aquifers and depleted oil and gas reservoirs historically considered for GCS, these formations can have extremely low porosities and permeabilities, limiting storage volumes and reactive mineral surfaces to the preexisting fracture network. As a result, coupling between geochemical interactions and the fracture network evolution is a critical component of long-term, sustainable carbon storage. In this paper, we summarize recent advances in integrating experimental and modeling approaches to determine the first-order processes for carbon mineralization in a fractured mafic/ultramafic rock system. We observe the critical role of fracture aperture, flow, and surface characteristics in controlling the quantity, identity, and morphology of secondary precipitates and present where the influence of these factors can be reflected in newly developed thermo-hydro-mechanical–chemical models. Our findings provide a roadmap for future work on carbon mineralization, as we present the most important system components and key challenges that we are overcoming to enable GCS in mafic and ultramafic rocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a dynamical model and energy analysis for wheel loader

The objective of this paper is to develop a fully integrated model for the wheel loader, including the subsystem dynamics of the engine, drivetrain, working circuit, steering circuit, and vehicle. It leads to a high-order strongly nonlinear system, and all state variables are coupled together to form a Multi-Input and Multi-Output (MIMO) system. A control architecture is proposed to decouple the MIMO system into several Single-Input and Single-Output (SISO) systems. Here, a tracking problem has been formulated to validate this fully integrated model with the field test data. The accuracy of the model is verified by the 2.3% difference between the measured and simulated fuel consumption. Meanwhile, an energy distribution analysis is conducted to reveal the energy consumption and energy loss of each portion of the wheel loader. Such a model can be used to plan the working pattern, guide the driving habits of human operators, or refine the underlying architecture, leading to the ultimate goal of reducing total fuel consumption and improving productivity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multirate partitioned Runge–Kutta methods for coupled Navier–Stokes equations

Earth system models are complex integrated models of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. Coupling the components can be a significant challenge due to the difference in physics, temporal, and spatial scales. Further, this study explores multirate partitioned Runge-Kutta methods for the fluid-fluid interaction problem and demonstrates its parallel performance by using the PETSc library. We consider compressible Navier-Stokes equations with gravity coupled through a rigid-lid interface. Our large-scale numerical experiments reveal that multirate partitioned Runge-Kutta coupling schemes (1) can conserve total mass; (2) have second-order accuracy in time; and (3) provide favorable strong- and weak-scaling performance on modern computing architectures. We also show that the speedup factors of multirate partitioned Runge-Kutta methods match theoretical expectations over their base (single-rate) method.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating crop growth models with remote sensing for predicting biomass yield of sorghum

Abstract Plant phenotypes are often descriptive, rather than predictive of crop performance. As a result, extensive testing is required in plant breeding programmes to develop varieties aimed at performance in the target environments. Crop models can improve this testing regime by providing a predictive framework to (i) augment field phenotyping data and derive hard-to-measure phenotypes and (ii) estimate performance across geographical regions using historical weather data. The goal of this study was to parameterize the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop growth models with remote-sensing and ground-reference data to predict variation in phenology and yield-related traits in 18 commercial grain and biomass sorghum hybrids. Genotype parameters for each hybrid were estimated using remote-sensing measurements combined with manual phenotyping in West Lafayette, IN, in 2018. The models were validated in hybrid performance trials in two additional seasons at that site and against yield trials conducted in Bushland, TX, between 2001 and 2018. These trials demonstrated that (i) maximum plant height, final dry biomass and radiation use efficiency (RUE) of photoperiod-sensitive and -insensitive forage sorghum hybrids tended to be higher than observed in grain sorghum, (ii) photoperiod-sensitive sorghum hybrids exhibited greater biomass production in longer growing environments and (iii) the parameterized and validated models perform well in above-ground biomass simulations across years and locations. Crop growth models that integrate remote-sensing data offer an efficient approach to parameterize larger plant breeding populations.

Yang, Kai-Wei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

PIPES (Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems) [SWR-24-89]

The Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems (PIPES) is a comprehensive project, data, and workflow management tool designed for integrated modeling teams. PIPES facilitates the management of data requirements, tasks, and progress tracking, serving as a higher-level integration layer that works across various data and modeling software. This tool integrates models, data, and tools to perform large-scale, integrated analysis work at scale. PIPES is designed to streamline integrated modeling projects, enhance collaboration, and ensure the quality and efficiency of data management and workflow processes. https://github.com/nrel-pipes/pipes-api https://github.com/nrel-pipes/pipes-web https://github.com/nrel-pipes/nrel-pipes

Gu, Jianli↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Neutronics Modeling for Inertial Fusion Energy Systems: Development and Application to LD-FIRST

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is proposing a new Laser Driven Fusion Integration Research and Science Test Facility (LD-FIRST) with the goal of providing an experimental testbed for future Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) systems. However, IFE systems require detailed and accurate multiphysics modeling to quantify material damage, thermal loading, and tritium breeding within complex chamber environments. This article presents the first step in an integrated multiphysics framework that couples meshed CAD-based geometry within Monte Carlo neutronic simulations to enable high-fidelity analysis of IFE chamber concepts, with future coupling to external codes. The neutronics workflow utilizes OpenMC and its third-party capability to use CAD-based geometries through DAGMC and tally on unstructured meshes with Libmesh to evaluate neutron transport behavior, geometric fidelity, and material performance under reactor-relevant conditions. The use of tailored tallies on unstructured meshes in this framework allows direct transfer without interpolating to CFD simulation tools. Two IFE chambers were evaluated, both conceived by LLNL: HYLIFE-II and Laser IFE (LIFE). This work produced high-fidelity conformal surface and volumetric meshes of the HYLIFE-II and LIFE chambers with mapped spatial insight into material damage, thermal loading, and tritium breeding. The HYLIFE-II model was built utilizing available resources and used as a test case to verify that the neutronics framework can handle complex geometries. The LIFE chamber CAD was provided by LLNL and was the main focus of this work. This work analyzes multiple ternary alloy breeding materials for the LIFE chamber, across different 6 Li enrichments to produce data relevant to the LD-FIRST project. This work also investigates the level of model fidelity for the LIFE chamber, and results show that inclusion of detailed first wall and coolant structures increased the predicted tritium breeding ratio (TBR) by ~30%, highlighting the sensitivity of tritium breeding and the need for a high-fidelity simulation framework for IFE chambers. These developments provide a scalable toolset for the design and optimization of next-generation IFE chambers, forming a solid foundation for future coupled multiphysics analysis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Multiscale Modeling for Design of Robust 3D Solid-State Lithium Batteries - FY21 Annual Report

This project is developing a multiscale, multi-physics modeling framework for probing the effects of materials microstructure and device architecture on ion transport within 3D ceramic solid-state battery materials, with the goal of enhancing performance and reliability. The project has three primary objectives: (1) integrate multi physics and multiscale model components; (2) understand interface- and microstructure-derived limitations on ion transport; and (3) derive key structure-performance relations for enabling future optimization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Fully Explicit Integrator for Modeling Astrophysical Reactive Flows

Simulating complex astrophysical reacting flows is computationally expensive—reactions are stiff and typically require implicit integration methods. The reaction update is often the most expensive part of a simulation, which motivates the exploration of more economical methods. In this research note, we investigate how the explicit Runge–Kutta–Chebyshev (RKC) method performs compared to an implicit method when applied to astrophysical reactive flows. These integrators are applied to simulations of X-ray bursts arising from unstable thermonuclear burning of accreted fuel on the surface of neutron stars. We show that the RKC method performs with similar accuracy to our traditional implicit integrator, but is more computationally efficient when run on CPUs.

GPU computing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data Integration Aggregated Model For Nuclear Deployment

The data of a nuclear utility or plant are stored in various isolated forms in different systems. These data have different structures and tools and are, therefore, used independently. The integration of data sources is often needed and is performed manually and on an as-needed basis. The integration of the data would enable creating a data warehouse for a single nuclear power plant (NPP) or multiple plants. A data model contains objects that make up a given domain along with their attributes and relationships and could be used as a standard for exchange between applications for simple integration and data aggregation. After a survey of existing models, it was determined that a new model was required to meet the scope of this problem. DIAMOND has been developed in the form of an ontology to meet these needs. An ontology is simply a data model that also acts as a taxonomy for the domain, organizing the objects in a hierarchy with the most general objects at the top.

Browning, JerenM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal and electric multidomain dynamic model for integration of power grid distribution with behind-the-meter devices

As renewable energy sources like solar and wind power become more integrated into the grid, coordinated control of behind-the-meter devices is crucial for enhancing grid flexibility and reliability and for meeting cost targets, with standardized models being developed to support this transition. The increasing flexibility and uncertainty of integrated renewable energy grids, along with interactions between various subsystems, make traditional steady-state modeling insufficient to capture transient and dynamic behaviors. Current models (e.g., composite load and battery equivalent models) focus on thermodynamic or electrical characteristics but overlook critical electromechanical interactions. This limits the ability to share performance information for grid services and hampers fast dynamic simulations. In addition, motor stalling is usually triggered by a fault event and attributed to the characteristics of the mechanical torque of the motor, resulting in absorption of a large amount of reactive power during the stalling period. Further, this significant withdrawal of reactive power will deteriorate the dynamic voltage stability of power grids and cause delayed voltage recovery. Therefore, an in-depth modeling of the thermodynamics or mechanical torque is essential to study the impacts of the realistic torque characteristics of those behind-the-meter devices on power system voltage stability. This study developed a dynamic multidomain model for building HVAC systems, such as air-source heat pumps, to simulate their thermal and electrical responses to grid transients. The model can accurately predict power metrics with a mean absolute percentage error of 10%, by validating against with power system computer-aided design performance data. Case studies demonstrate the model capability of capturing the transient response to sudden voltage changes, rapid load fluctuations, and system shutdowns respectively. During a sudden voltage drop (30% for 0.1s), a fully loaded heat pump’s motor speed dropped, continued declining, and shut down after 3.6s, with severe power oscillations and a torque spike. A partially loaded unit experienced temporary oscillations but stabilized. Under higher building loads, compressor speed increased from 64% to 100%, with power and torque rising before stabilizing. In safety-triggered shutdowns, power decreased after minor fluctuations, and torque briefly spiked before dropping to zero.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of IMEP on Alcator C-Mod and JET-ILW ELMy H-mode plasmas

Abstract The recently developed integrated model based on engineering parameters (IMEP) (Luda et al 2020 Nucl. Fusion 61 126048; Luda et al 2021 Nucl. Fusion 60 036023), so far validated on ASDEX Upgrade, has been tested on a database of 3 Alcator C-Mod and 55 JET-ILW ELMy (type I) H-mode stationary phases. The empirical pedestal transport model included in IMEP, consisting now of imposing a fixed value of R < ∇ T e > / T e , t o p = − 82.5 , allows an accurate prediction of the pedestal top temperature (when the pedestal top density is fixed to the experimental measurements) across these three machines with different sizes, when the pedestal is peeling–ballooning (PB) limited. Cases far from the ideal PB boundary, corresponding to high edge Spitzer resistivity, are instead strongly overpredicted by IMEP. A comparison between the predictions of Europed and IMEP for a subset of JET-ILW cases shows that IMEP can more accurately reproduce the experimental pedestal width. This allows IMEP to better capture profile effects on the pedestal stability, and therefore to correctly describe the negative effect of fueling on the pedestal pressure for PB limited cases. A strong correlation between the separatrix density and the fueling rate has been identified for a subset of JET-ILW cases, when taking into account different divertor configurations. Overall, these promising results encourage further developments of integrated models to obtain reliable predictions of pedestal and global confinement using only engineering parameters for present and future machines.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Open-Source Steady-State Models for Integration of Wave Energy Converter into Microgrids

This paper proposes a software framework, WEC-Grid, for integrating wave energy converters (WECs) into power flow software, such as Siemens PSS®E, to aid the integration of alternative energy sources into Microgrids. While integrating alternative sources such as WECs presents specific challenges such as cost, power quality, and power variability, wave energy is a promising renewable energy resource. Evaluating the integration of WECs into the power grid is a complex and nuanced problem that requires seamless communication between a WEC model and power flow software. The presented WEC-Grid software framework bridges and extends the functionality of WEC-Sim, an open-source WEC modeling package for MATLAB, through a wave-to-wire (W2W) electro-mechanical power conversion and processing model. WEC-Grid acts as a software wrapper, handler, and communication layer between the W2W modeler and power flow software. The software is designed to represent each grid system as a class object, allowing power system operators to perform power system duties such as contingency planning and dispatch operations. The integration of WECs with PSS®E’s power flow calculations workflow is demonstrated with an IEEE RTS case study.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Potential Adoption and Benefits of Co-Optimized Multimode Engines and Fuels for U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles

Exploring a diverse portfolio of technologies for decarbonization is crucial to understanding the potential impacts of different technological solutions and their associated environmental implications. Using high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends in co-optimized multimode engines can increase engine efficiency and reduce vehicle emissions. Here, the multimode engine research focuses on the benefits of light-duty vehicle engines, which can operate in multiple modes depending on the vehicle's load. Low-temperature combustion can improve efficiency and reduce emissions (such as those from oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter) during low-load operation, while spark ignition performance is maintained in high-load operation. These advanced engines can be optimized to run on blends of biobased fuels. This analysis models scenarios for potential market adoption of co-optimized multimode vehicles fueled by three different bioblendstocks: ethanol, isopropanol, and isobutanol. An integrated modeling approach is used to forecast the energy and environmental impacts of the deployment of co-optimized multimode vehicles and fuels in the light-duty sector over the 2020-to-2050 time horizon. The multidisciplinary approach combines vehicle sales modeling, system dynamics modeling of the biorefining industry, and life cycle assessment to estimate the emissions and energy benefits. The models consider market forces such as consumer preferences for vehicle attributes, biofuel supply and demand dynamics subject to biorefinery capacity build-out and bioresource constraints, and forecasted changes to the U.S. bulk energy system over time. Market adoption of co-optimized vehicles is evaluated across a wide parameter space for incremental vehicle cost and engine efficiency improvement. This analysis reveals that the deployment of co-optimized multimode fuels and vehicles results in up to a 5% reduction in annual sector-wide life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, relative to a business-as-usual scenario, but is also indicates environmental trade-offs, such as higher life cycle water-use. Emission benefits could potentially increase beyond 2050, as the new technologies penetrate the market and gain a foothold. Results also show that, under certain circumstances, vehicles with engines co-optimized for use with high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends can be cost-competitive with conventional gasoline, while reducing GHG emissions. Our modeling results indicate that co-optimized multimode fuels and engines can be strategically leveraged in tandem with electrification to decarbonize the light-duty sector. Co-optimized vehicles could play a role in the early years of the time horizon, while electric vehicles (EVs) could become more competitive in the later years, highlighting the complementary benefits of these technologies for GHG reductions.

Oke, Doris↗