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DOE OSTI2025

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Constraints on the structure growth from cluster number counts

Recent advancements in methods used in wide-area surveys have demonstrated the reliability of the number density of galaxy clusters as a viable tool for precision cosmology. Beyond testing the current cosmological paradigm, cluster number counts can also be used to investigate the discrepancies currently affecting cosmological measurements. In particular, cosmological studies based on cosmic shear and other large-scale structure probes routinely find a value for the amplitude of the fluctuations in the universe S 8 = σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 smaller than the one inferred from the primary cosmic microwave background. In this work, we investigate this tension by measuring structure evolution across cosmic time as probed by the number counts of massive halos with the first SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey cluster catalog in the western Galactic hemisphere, complemented with the overlapping Dark Energy Survey Year-3, Kilo-Degree Survey, and Hyper Suprime-Cam data for weak lensing mass calibration, by implementing two different parameterizations and a model-agnostic method. In the first model, we measured the cosmic linear growth index as γ = 1.19 ± 0.21, which is in tension with the standard value of γ = 0.55 but in good statistical agreement with other large-scale structure probes. The second model is a phenomenological scenario in which we rescale the linear matter power spectrum at low redshift to investigate a potential reduction of structure formation, and it provided similar results. Finally, in a third strategy, we considered a standard ΛCDM cosmology, but we separated the cluster catalog into five redshift bins, measuring the cosmological parameters in each and inferring the evolution of the structure formation, finding hints of a reduction. Interestingly, the S 8 value inferred from the number counts of the cluster eRASS1 when we add a degree of freedom to the matter power spectrum recovers the value inferred by cosmic shear studies. The observed reduction in the growth rate or systematic uncertainties associated with various measurements may account for the discrepancy in the S 8 values suggested between cosmic shear probes and eROSITA cluster number counts and Planck CMB measurements.

cosmological parameters↗

DOE OSTI2024

Review of the second charged-particle transport coefficient code comparison workshop

We report the results of the second charged-particle transport coefficient code comparison workshop, which was held in Livermore, California on 24–27 July 2023. This workshop gathered theoretical, computational, and experimental scientists to assess the state of computational and experimental techniques for understanding charged-particle transport coefficients relevant to high-energy-density plasma science. Data for electronic and ionic transport coefficients, namely, the direct current electrical conductivity, electron thermal conductivity, ion shear viscosity, and ion thermal conductivity were computed and compared for multiple plasma conditions. Additional comparisons were carried out for electron–ion properties such as the electron–ion equilibration time and alpha particle stopping power. Overall, 39 participants submitted calculated results from 18 independent approaches, spanning methods from parameterized semi-empirical models to time-dependent density functional theory. In the cases studied here, we find significant differences—several orders of magnitude—between approaches, particularly at lower temperatures, and smaller differences—roughly a factor of five—among first-principles models. We investigate the origins of these differences through comparisons of underlying predictions of ionic and electronic structure. The results of this workshop help to identify plasma conditions where computationally inexpensive approaches are accurate, where computationally expensive models are required, and where experimental measurements will have high impact.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal reconstruction of baryon acoustic oscillations for DESI 2024

Baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) provide a robust standard ruler to measure the expansion history of the Universe through galaxy clustering. Density-field reconstruction is now a widely adopted procedure for increasing the precision and accuracy of the BAO detection. With the goal of finding the optimal reconstruction settings to be used in the DESI 2024 galaxy BAO analysis, we assess the sensitivity of the post-reconstruction BAO constraints to different choices in our analysis configuration, performing tests on blinded data from the first year of DESI observations (DR1), as well as on mocks that mimic the expected clustering and selection properties of the DESI DR1 target samples. Overall, we find that BAO constraints remain robust against multiple aspects in the reconstruction process, including the choice of smoothing scale, treatment of redshift-space distortions, fiber assignment incompleteness, and parameterizations of the BAO model. We also present a series of tests that DESI followed in order to assess the maturity of the end-to-end galaxy BAO pipeline before the unblinding of the large-scale structure catalogs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Diffusion power spectra as a window into dynamic materials architecture

Chemical recycling of commodity and specialty polymers presents a multifaceted challenge for industrial societies. On one hand, macromolecular architectures must be engineered to yield durable products that, on the other hand, rapidly deconstruct to recyclable monomers under pre-determined conditions. Polymer deconstruction is a chemical process that requires deep understanding of molecular reactivity in heterogeneous media, where porous material architectures evolve in both space and time. To build this understanding, we develop herein experimental and analytical methods describing sets of diffusive eigenmodes that exist within time-varying, non-Euclidean boundary conditions, a situation commonly encountered in the reactive deconstruction of polymers where chain fragments splay, alter their local dynamics, and evolve in their confinement of reacting media. Diffusion power spectra, discerned experimentally by NMR, yield polymer and solvent frequency-domain velocity autocorrelation functions that are analyzed in the context of physical models for chemical reactions parameterized with fractal mathematics. The results connect local motion in polymers to chemical reactivity during acidolysis of circular elastomers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Shoreline wave breaking strongly enhances the coastal sea spray aerosol population: Climate and air quality implications

Sea spray aerosol (SSA) emission is a major source of atmospheric aerosols, influencing global climate and coastal air quality. Much of our knowledge about SSA derives from coastal observations near shorelines, but whether and when these observations accurately represent open oceans remain unclear. Here, we show that strong nearshore SSA production during high-wave periods greatly enhances downwind cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and aerosol mass concentrations. Strong shoreline wave breaking is widespread globally, and swell waves, which are decoupled from local winds, play a dominant role in many coastal regions. Therefore, extrapolating results based on coastal measurements to open oceans may significantly overestimate SSA concentration and its contribution to CCN and, by extension, the impact of SSA on clouds and climate. Additionally, the strong enhancement of coastal aerosol population by shoreline wave breaking and its environmental impact on coastal communities cannot be captured by current regional models, which do not parameterize nearshore SSA generation using wave energy or completely neglect it.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

Carbon↗

DOE OSTI2025

Warm-phase microphysical evolution in large-eddy simulations of tropical cumulus congestus: evaluating drop size distribution evolution using polarimetry retrievals, in situ measurements, and a thermal-based framework

Owing to uncertainties in convective microphysics processes, improving parameterizations in Earth system models (ESMs) can benefit from observationally constrained cases suitable for scaling between cloud-resolving models and ESMs. We propose a benchmark large-eddy simulation (LES) cumulus congestus case study from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP 2 Ex) for evaluating and improving ESMs in single-column model (SCM) mode. We seek observational constraints using novel polarimetric retrievals and in situ cloud microphysics measurements. Simulations using bulk and bin microphysics initialized with observed aerosol profiles are compared to cloud-top retrievals of cloud droplet effective radius (R eff ), effective variance (ν eff ), and number concentration (N d ) from the airborne Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). Both schemes reproduce characteristics of cloud-top N d and R eff that increase and decrease with altitude, respectively. Cloud-top N d is low-biased relative to RSP retrievals in both schemes, potentially due to limitations in both simulations and retrieval assumptions. Cloud-top R eff is low-biased in the bulk scheme but reasonably reproduced by the bin scheme. Profiles of N d and R eff are sensitive to the collision–coalescence process and the vertical variation in aerosol size distribution. Comparison of simulated and in situ droplet size distributions (DSDs) shows that, to first order, integrated moments are always sensitive to sizes < ~ 30 µm and can also be sensitive to larger sizes if the DSDs are sufficiently broad, with implications for the assumed maximum observed size retrieved by the RSP. The bin scheme captures the observed extended tail of the DSD, while the bulk scheme is unable to due to parametric constraints. Differences in expected relationships between in situ measurements of cloud cores and cloud-top retrievals by RSP demonstrate difficulty in constraining well the case presented herein. Finally, a thermal-tracking framework demonstrates that the dilution of N d throughout a thermal's lifetime is heavily determined by collision–coalescence and the height-varying aerosol distribution and that, in the absence of these, the impact of entrainment on diluting N d is largely offset by secondary activation. Implications for evaluating warm-phase convective microphysics schemes in ESMs and translating results for use on global, space-based polarimetry platforms are discussed.

Stanford, McKenna Wallace [Columbia Univ., New Yor↗

DOE OSTI2025

ARM SGP PBLH and MLH datasets from Raman lidar and Doppler lidar

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) plays a critical role in the atmosphere by transferring heat, moisture, and momentum. The warm PBL has a distinct diurnal cycle including the daytime convective mixing layer (ML) and nighttime residual layer developments. Thus, simultaneous determinations of PBL height (PBLH) and ML height (MLH) are necessary for studying PBL characterization and processes. Here, new approaches are developed to provide reliable PBLH and MLH estimates to characterize warm PBL evolution. The approaches use Raman lidar (RL) water vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) and Doppler lidar (DL) vertical velocity measurements at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory, which was established by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility. Compared to widely used lidar aerosol measurements for PBLH, WVMR is a better tracer for PBL vertical mixing. For PBLH, the approach classifies PBL water vapor structures into a few general patterns, then uses a slope method and dynamic threshold method to determine PBLH. For MLH, wavelet analysis is used to reconstruct 2D variance from DL vertical wind velocity measurements according to the turbulence eddy size to minimize the impacts of gravity wave and eddy size on variance calculations; then, a dynamic threshold method is used to determine MLH. Remotely-sensed PBLHs and MLHs are compared with radiosonde measurements based on the Richardson number method. Good agreements between them confirm that the proposed new algorithms are reliable for PBLH and MLH characterization. The algorithms are applied to warm-season RL and ML measurements at the SGP site for five years to study warm-season PBL structure and processes. The weekly composited diurnal evolutions of PBLHs and MLHs in a warm climate were provided to illustrate diurnal and seasonal PBL evolutions. This reliable data set of PBLH and MLH values will be valuable for studying PBL processes, model evolution, and PBL parameterization improvements. The MLH dataset includes the MLH in values of km above ground level. The PBLH dataset includes the PBLH in values of km above ground level, along with a flag ("situation_PBLH") to determine the state of the PBL (1 = Cloudy Condition, 2 = Stable Layer, 3 = Multi-layer WVMR structure, 4 = Well-Mixed PBL, 5 = A de-coupled layer, 6 = Other).

mixing layer height↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneous Optimization of Crystal Plasticity Hardening Parameters

Crystal plasticity models relate macroscopic deformation behavior to the evolution of slip systems strength, but their parameterization is often non-unique, with multiple parameter sets being able to describe the same macroscopic behavior. To address this issue, the present work adopts a Bayesian optimization framework for the parameterization of face-centered cubic plasticity models while simultaneously considering multiple experimental datasets from the literature. For single crystal Cu, parameter optimization was guided by the tensile stress–strain curves along several crystallographic orientations, with an adequate fit being found for five orientations at once. While additional parameters allowed for the consideration of more physical mechanisms, like different slip system interaction strengths or misorientations inherent to the experimental data, the extra dimensionality was found to limit the efficiency of the global minimization procedure. For polycrystalline Ni, multiple grain sizes were considered together in a representative polycrystalline model, with the optimization able to reconcile the model with the data for three grain sizes at once. As meaningful interpretation of parameters relies on the uniqueness of their values, incorporating multiple datasets into this discerning parameterization procedure enables more robust prediction and application of crystal plasticity models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Accelerated First-Principles Study of the Hydrodeoxygenation of Propanoic Acid

The complex reaction network of catalytic biomass conversions often involves hundreds of surface intermediates and thousands of reaction steps, greatly hindering the rational design of metal catalysts for these conversions. Here, we present a framework of machine learning (ML)-accelerated first-principles studies for the hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of propanoic acid over transition metal surfaces. The microkinetic model (MKM) is initially parametrized by ML-predicted energies and iteratively improved by identifying the rate-determining species and steps (RDS), computing their energies by density functional theory (DFT), and reparameterizing the MKM until all the RDS are computed by DFT. The Gaussian process (GP) model performs significantly better than the linear ridge regression model for predicting both the adsorption free energies and transition state free energies. Parameterized with energies from the GP model, only 5–20% of the full reaction network has to be computed by DFT for the MKM to possess DFT-level accuracy for the TOF and dominant reaction pathway. While the linear ridge regression model performs worse than the GP model, its performance is greatly improved when only transition states are predicted by the regression model and adsorption energies are computed by DFT. Overall, we find that a high accuracy in adsorption free energies is more important for a reliable MKM than a high accuracy in TS free energies. Lastly, based on the GP model with GOH and GCHCHCO as catalyst descriptors, we build two-dimensional volcano plots in activity and selectivity that can help design promising alloy catalysts for HDO reactions of organic acids.

adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Liquid–Liquid Phase Separation of Submicrometer Proxies for Atmospheric Secondary Aerosol

Liquid–liquid phase separation (LLPS) of atmospheric aerosols can significantly impact climate, air quality, and human health. However, their complex composition, small size, and history-dependent properties result in great uncertainty in the modeling of aerosol phase state and atmospheric processes. Herein, using cryogenic transmission electron microscopy (cryo-TEM), we examined model submicron aerosols composed of organic compounds and ammonium sulfate, and established a parameterization for the separation relative humidity (SRH) that accounts for chemical composition, particle size, and equilibration time. We evaluated different variables that describe chemical composition: O/C ratio, partition coefficient, solubility, molar mass, and polarizability. The O/C ratio fits the SRH of micrometer droplets best, and by using a scaling factor to translate the micrometer SRH parameterization to submicron aerosols, we incorporate the effects of size and equilibration time. The measured scaling factor for the submicron mean SRH (30nm – 1μm, 20 min equilibration times) is 0.80, the factor becomes 1 with equilibration time over 1 hour, and is equal to 0, meaning that SRH is absent, when the aerosol dry diameter is smaller than 30 nm. Furthermore, our parameterization will aid in universal SRH modeling, potentially leading to more accurate predictions of aerosol mass, optical properties, hygroscopicity, and heterogeneous chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Role of the Toroidal Vortex in Cumulus Clouds' Entrainment and Mixing

Abstract Shallow convective clouds play a crucial role in Earth's energy budget, as they modulate the radiative transfer in the atmosphere and participate in the vertical transport of aerosols, energy, and humidity. The parameterizations representing these complex, vital players in weather and climate models are mostly based on a description of steady‐state plumes and are a source of major uncertainty. Recently, several studies have shown that buoyant thermals are inherent in atmospheric convection and contain a toroidal (ring) vortex. This work studies those vortices in growing shallow cumulus (Cu) clouds using high‐resolution (10 m) Large Eddy Simulations that resolve these vortices in much detail. Recent analysis of such data showed that small‐scale turbulent diffusion is unable to explain the large diluted portion of the cloud. Here we advocate for the important role of the Cu toroidal vortex (TV) in cloud dilution and present the complex dynamics and structure of a Cu TV. Nevertheless, since the vortex dominates the cloud's dilution, simplicity emerges when considering the cloud's lateral mass flux profile. The cloud mixing is quantified using direct flux calculations and Eulerian tracers. In addition, Lagrangian tracers are used to identify the origin of the entrained air and its thermodynamic properties. It shows that most of the air entrained by the vortex is not recycled by the vortex, yet is significantly more humid than the environment. We suggest that the development of new models describing thermals, together with their toroidal vortices, might improve cloud parameterizations in weather and climate models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

HSW-V v1.0: localized injections of interactive volcanic aerosols and their climate impacts in a simple general circulation model

Abstract. A new set of standalone parameterizations is presented for simulating the injection, evolution, and radiative forcing by stratospheric volcanic aerosols against an idealized Held–Suarez–Williamson (HSW) atmospheric background in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). In this model configuration (HSW with enabled volcanism, HSW-V), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash are injected into the atmosphere with a specified profile in the vertical, and they proceed to follow a simple exponential decay. The SO2 decay is modeled as a perfect conversion to a long-living sulfate aerosol which persists in the stratosphere. All three species are implemented as tracers in the model framework and are transported by the dynamical core's advection algorithm. The aerosols contribute simultaneously to local heating of the stratosphere and cooling of the surface by a simple plane-parallel Beer–Lambert law applied on two zonally symmetric radiation broadbands in the longwave and shortwave ranges. It is shown that the implementation parameters can be tuned to produce realistic temperature anomaly signatures of large volcanic events. In particular, results are shown for an ensemble of runs that mimic the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. The design requires no coupling to microphysical subgrid-scale parameterizations and thus approaches the computational affordability of prescribed aerosol forcing strategies. The idealized simulations contain a single isolated volcanic event against a statistically uniform climate, where no background aerosols or other sources of externally forced variability are present. HSW-V represents a simpler-to-understand tool for the development of climate source-to-impact attribution methods.

Hollowed, Joseph P. (ORCID:0000000286581672)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Relating flow resistance to equivalent roughness

Describing flow resistance using the physical properties of an underlying surface is a recalcitrant problem in overland flow models. If discharge measurements are available, an equivalent roughness (e.g., Manning’s n) can be calibrated to represent the effects of surface properties within the domain with a single numerical value. Alternatively, the flow resistance can be estimated from discharge and velocity measured at a point, typically a runoff plot outlet. However, such experimental estimates are often inconsistent with the equivalent roughness determined from calibration to discharge, even if both derive from the same dataset. For example, if Manning’s equation is used to parameterize flow resistance, the Manning’s n obtained by calibrating a model to discharge differs from the value of n calculated from measured flow and velocity at the hillslope outlet. Here, this discrepancy is resolved by deriving a correction factor relating experimentally-determined flow resistance to the equivalent roughness. The derived correction factor is tested for four commonly-used resistance formulations using 129 rainfall simulator experiments. The correction factor is necessary to reproduce measured velocities, and yields minor improvements in discharge prediction. Plain Language Summary: Accurate runoff prediction is needed for land and water management in dryland regions, where sporadic and limited rainfall necessitate efficient water use and drought mitigation strategies. The skill of runoff models is known to be hindered by out ability to estimate flow resistance, which is the quantity that describes how energy is lost from flowing water to the underlying surface. Typically, models represent flow resistance with an equivalent roughness, e.g., Manning’s n, that is adjusted until the model can reproduce available discharge observations at watershed scale. However, the flow resistance measured in plot-scale experiments (1–10 m) often exceeds equivalent roughness coefficients by a factor of 10. This means that the direct use of plot-scale experimental data to parameterize runoff models could cause errors in discharge and runoff velocity predictions. Here, we resolve these differences by deriving an analytic correction factor that relates flow resistance to the equivalent roughness required for models to reproduce experimental velocity and discharge data. This correction factor is tested using rainfall simulator data from 129 experiments performed in the US Southwest covering a wide range of precipitation intensities, soil textures and vegetation types. Use of the correction factor substantially improves model prediction of flow velocity, which is needed for reproducing the timing of flood events and the estimation of erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tropospheric aerosols over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the winter and summer deployments of ACTIVATE 2020: life cycle, transport, and distribution

The Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) is a NASA mission to characterize aerosol–cloud interactions over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO). Such characterization requires understanding of life cycle, composition, transport pathways, and distribution of aerosols over the WNAO. This study uses the GEOS-Chem model to simulate aerosol distributions and properties that are evaluated against aircraft, ground-based, and satellite observations during the winter and summer field deployments in 2020 of ACTIVATE. Transport in the boundary layer (BL) behind cold fronts was a major mechanism for the North American continental outflow of pollution to the WNAO in winter. Turbulent mixing was the main driver for the upward transport of sea salt within and ventilation out of BL in winter. The BL aerosol composition was dominated by sea salt, which increased in the summer, followed by organics and sulfate. Aircraft in situ aerosol measurements provided useful constraints on wet scavenging in GEOS-Chem. The model generally captured observed features such as continental outflow, land–ocean gradient, and mixing of anthropogenic aerosols with sea salt. Model sensitivity experiments with elevated smoke injection heights to the mid-troposphere (versus within BL) better reproduced observations of smoke aerosols from the western US wildfires over the WNAO in the summer. Model analysis suggests strong hygroscopic growth of sea salt particles and their seeding of marine BL clouds over the WNAO (< 35° N). Future modeling efforts should focus on improving parameterizations for aerosol wet scavenging, implementing realistic smoke injection heights, and applying high-resolution models that better resolve vertical transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduce Revenue Versus Increase Expenditure: Fires and Plant Invasion Drive Soil Carbon Loss With Different Mechanisms in a Mediterranean Shrubland

Fires and plant invasions threaten Mediterranean ecosystems substantially, particularly in the context of changing climate. Our study utilized a data-model integration approach to assess the response of soil organic carbon (SOC) to fires and plant invasion under three Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, and SSP5-85). We parameterized the CLM-Microbe model and then investigated the individual and interactive impacts of fires and plant invasion on soil C by comparing factorial simulations of initialization (fire/no wildfire in 2021), fire module on/off, and with and without plant invasion during 2023–2100 in a Mediterranean ecosystem. The simulations indicated a marked C loss due to the 2021 wildfire, projected fires, and plant invasion across all future climate scenarios. Specifically, the 2021 wildfire, projected fires, and plant invasion reduced the SOC (0–30 cm) by 0.12, 0.26, and 0.15 kg C m −2 under SSP1-26, 0.12, 0.30, and 0.12 kg C m −2 under SSP2-45, and 0.12, 0.24, and 0.13 kg C m −2 under SSP5-85, respectively. However, fires and plant invasion decreased SOC through distinct mechanisms. The effects of the 2021 wildfire occurred due to its negative legacy on soil microbial community and, thus, litter accumulation, suppressing the formation of soil carbon via decomposition. Influences of projected fires happen via consuming fuel and suppressing carbon input to soils. In contrast, the impacts of plant invasions were due to enhanced microbial respiration, leading to C loss. In conclusion, these findings emphasize the need for tailored C sequestration strategies considering the disparate effects of fires and plant invasions in the Mediterranean climate.

microbe↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decision support for United States—Canada energy integration is impaired by fragmentary environmental and electricity system modeling capacity

The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed transmission lines between Quebec, Canada and the northeast U.S. cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g. streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g. costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national-scale public data exist in other countries, notably, the United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal 4D Whole-cell Modeling of a Minimal Autotroph Reveals Central Carbon Metabolism Regulated Locally by Protein Megacomplexes via Post-translational Modifications under Light Disturbance

Photosynthetic microorganisms rely on multiple pathways in central carbon metabolism to adapt to fluctuating light and energy availability across diel cycles. Mechanistic insight into the regulatory dynamics of this adaptation requires integrating processes spanning disparate timescales, from rapid redox-dependent post-translational modifications (PTMs) to slower changes in protein expression and metabolic pathway usage. To address this complexity beyond genome-based inference and traditional modeling, we develop a whole-cell four-dimensional (3D + time) model of the marine cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus marinus MED4 that explicitly represents the spatial organization of enzymatic and molecular processes in central carbon metabolism under light perturbation. We employ a perturbation-based research design to experimentally generate time-series, multi-omics measurements that provide molecular descriptors and cryo-ET derived 3D segmented volumes as constraints for this dynamic 4D framework. The integration of experiments and modeling across defined light regimes enables quantitative validation of system-level responses and forecasting under distinct light disturbances. We test the hypothesis that light-dependent redox PTMs regulating the structural assembly of a protein megacomplex, the “dark complex,” modulate metabolic flux at a conserved regulatory node of the Calvin–Benson cycle (CBC) in cyanobacteria. Our model shows that subcellular spatial organization buffers rapid light-induced changes in thylakoid reaction rates, which are followed by redox-PTM-mediated sequestration or release of CBC enzymes in the dark complex, ultimately impacting carbon fixation dynamics within carboxysomes. Comparison with an equivalently parameterized well-mixed stochastic model demonstrates that post-translational regulation not only buffers transcriptional noise and diffusion-driven fluctuations but also stabilizes phenotypic outcomes, underscoring the importance of spatial heterogeneity in phenotypic robustness. This ability to probe adaptive, spatiotemporally resolved mechanisms in photosynthetic machinery and central carbon metabolism addresses a critical gap in genotype-to-phenotype inference and expands modeling and design capabilities for understudied or genetically intractable autotrophs such as P. marinus MED4.

Johnson, Connah G.↗