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NASA NTRS2011

Terra and Aqua MODIS Design, Radiometry, and Geometry in Support of Land Remote Sensing

The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) mission includes the construction and launch of two nearly identical Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. The MODIS proto-flight model (PFM) is onboard the EOS Terra satellite (formerly EOS AM-1) launched on December 18, 1999 and hereafter referred to as Terra MODIS. Flight model-1 (FM1) is onboard the EOS Aqua satellite (formerly EOS PM-1) launched on May 04, 2002 and referred to as Aqua MODIS. MODIS was developed based on the science community s desire to collect multiyear continuous datasets for monitoring changes in the Earth s land, oceans and atmosphere, and the human contributions to these changes. It was designed to measure discrete spectral bands, which includes many used by a number of heritage sensors, and thus extends the heritage datasets to better understand both long- and short-term changes in the global environment (Barnes and Salomonson 1993; Salomonson et al. 2002; Barnes et al. 2002). The MODIS development, launch, and operation were managed by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, Maryland. The sensors were designed, built, and tested by Raytheon/ Santa Barbara Remote Sensing (SBRS), Goleta, California. Each MODIS instrument offers 36 spectral bands, which span the spectral region from the visible (0.41 m) to long-wave infrared (14.4 m). MODIS collects data at three different nadir spatial resolutions: 0.25, 0.5, and 1 km. Key design specifications, such as spectral bandwidths, typical scene radiances, required signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) or noise equivalent temperature differences (NEDT), and primary applications of each MODIS spectral band are summarized in Table 7.1. These parameters were the basis for the MODIS design. More details on the evolution of the NASA EOS and development of the MODIS instruments are provided in Chap. 1. This chapter focuses on the MODIS sensor design, radiometry, and geometry as they apply to land remote sensing. With near-daily coverage of the Earth's surface, MODIS provides comprehensive measurements that enable scientists and policy makers to better understand and effectively manage the natural resources on both regional and global scales. Terra, the first large multisensor EOS satellite, is operated in a 10:30 am (local equatorial crossing time, descending southwards) polar orbit. Aqua, the second multisensor EOS satellite is operated in a 1:30 pm (local equatorial crossing time, ascending northwards) polar orbit. With complementing morning and afternoon observations, the Terra and Aqua MODIS, together with other sensors housed on both satellites, have greatly improved our understanding of the dynamics of the global environmental system.

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗

DOE OSTI2020

Detecting the undetected: Dealing with non-routine events using advanced M&V meter-based savings approaches

In a rapidly evolving energy industry, utilities are dealing with new challenges like integrating distributed energy resources and market saturation for advanced lighting retrofits. Demand-side management programs require new approaches to meet aggressive carbon reduction goals. Advanced measurement & verification (M&V) is an energy data analysis method using smart meter data in combination with analytics to quantify energy efficiency project savings. Advanced M&V shows great promise for supporting next generation commercial programs including retro commissioning, multi-measure retrofits, and behavior change programs. Advanced M&V captures real project impacts at the meter, but sometimes non-project events can also impact consumption (so-called “non-routine events” [NREs]). Accurately detecting and accounting for NREs is important for reducing uncertainty of savings estimates and helps manage investment risk for different stakeholders (e.g., utilities, building owners, ESCOs). Recent research has shown promise in establishing data-driven techniques to identify and adjust for NREs, but fundamental questions still remain, such as: how can you distinguish NREs from acceptable noise in energy consumption profiles? What is the frequency and magnitude of NREs? Can their detection and adjustment be automated and streamlined? This paper documents the state of the art in NRE quantification and analysis. The results of research to quantify the frequency, nature and direction of NREs, and methods and metrics for determining a trigger threshold for taking action on NREs are presented. The paper also documents the latest technical guidance on application of NRE detection and adjustment methods.

Fernandes, Samuel↗

NASA NTRS1988

The infrared spectrograph during the SIRTF pre-definition phase

A test facility was set up to evaluate back-illuminated impurity band detectors constructed for an infrared spectrograph to be used on the Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF). Equipment built to perform the tests on these arrays is described. Initial tests have been geared toward determining dark current and read noise for the array. Four prior progress reports are incorporated into this report. They describe the first efforts in the detector development and testing effort; testing details and a new spectrograph concept; a discussion of resolution issues raised by the new design; management activities; a review of computer software and testing facility hardware; and a review of the preamplifier constructed as well as a revised schematic of the detector evaluation facility.

Houck, James R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

The X-43 Fin Actuation System Problem - Reliability in Shades of Gray

Following the loss of the first X-43 during launch, the mishap investigation board indicated the Fin Actuator System (FAS) needed to have a larger torque margin. To supply this added torque, a second actuator was added. The consequences of what seemed to be a simple modification would trouble the X-43 program. Because of the second actuator, a new computer board was required. This proved to be subject to electronic noise. This resulted in the actuator latch up in ground tests of the FAS for the second launch. Such a latch up would cause the Pegasus booster to fail, as the FAS was a single string system. The problem was corrected and the second flight was successful. The same modifications were added to the FAS for flight three. When the FAS underwent ground tests, it also latched up. The failure indicated that each computer board had a different tolerance to electronic noise. The problem with the FAS was corrected. Subsequently, another failure occurred, raising questions about the design, and the probability of failure for the X-43 Mach 10 flight. This was not simply a technical issue, but illuminated the difficulties facing both managers and engineers in assessing risk, design requirements, and probabilities in cutting edge aerospace projects.

Peebles, Curtis↗

NASA NTRS2007

Acoustics

The acoustics environment in space operations is important to maintain at manageable levels so that the crewperson can remain safe, functional, effective, and reasonably comfortable. High acoustic levels can produce temporary or permanent hearing loss, or cause other physiological symptoms such as auditory pain, headaches, discomfort, strain in the vocal cords, or fatigue. Noise is defined as undesirable sound. Excessive noise may result in psychological effects such as irritability, inability to concentrate, decrease in productivity, annoyance, errors in judgment, and distraction. A noisy environment can also result in the inability to sleep, or sleep well. Elevated noise levels can affect the ability to communicate, understand what is being said, hear what is going on in the environment, degrade crew performance and operations, and create habitability concerns. Superfluous noise emissions can also create the inability to hear alarms or other important auditory cues such as an equipment malfunctioning. Recent space flight experience, evaluations of the requirements in crew habitable areas, and lessons learned (Goodman 2003; Allen and Goodman 2003; Pilkinton 2003; Grosveld et al. 2003) show the importance of maintaining an acceptable acoustics environment. This is best accomplished by having a high-quality set of limits/requirements early in the program, the "designing in" of acoustics in the development of hardware and systems, and by monitoring, testing and verifying the levels to ensure that they are acceptable.

Goodman, Jerry R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced imaging of electronic hot spots using quantum squeezed light

Detecting electronic hot spots is important for understanding the heat dissipation and thermal management of electronic and semiconductor devices. Optical thermoreflective imaging is being used to perform precise temporal and spatial imaging of heat on wires and semiconductor materials. We apply quantum squeezed light to perform thermoreflective imaging on micro-wires, surpassing the shot-noise limit of classical approaches. We obtain a far-field temperature sensing accuracy of 42 mK after 50 ms of averaging and show that a 256×256 pixel image can be constructed with such sensitivity in 10 min. We can further obtain single-shot temperature sensing of 1.6 K after only 10 μs of averaging, enabling a dynamical study of heat dissipation. Not only do the quantum images provide accurate spatiotemporal information about heat distribution but also the measure of quantum correlation provides additional information, inaccessible by classical techniques, which can lead to a better understanding of the dynamics. We apply the technique to both aluminum and niobium microwires and discuss the applications of the technique in studying electron dynamics at low temperatures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2019

New Features in the SPOC Pipeline Release 4.0

The Science Processing Operations Center is in the process of testing and deploying Release 4.0 of the codebase in the March 2019 timeframe. This paper describes the new features of the software and their likely impact on the quality of the TESS science data products. The major goals of Release 4.0 are to improve the extraction of photometry from the pixels in light of the non-uniform pointing performance and the identification of instrumental signatures from the light curves. We also describe modifications to the FFI pipeline to allow the generation of FFI light curves, correction of the instrumental systematics therein, and planet searches, primarily for the purpose of validating the 2-min pipeline against the FFI pipeline, but also to be able to provide cotrending basis vectors (CBVs) derived directly from the FFIs to the public to aid them in their extraction and correction of photometry. We also discuss the improvements in photometric performance of the pipeline and its various components.The lapse in funding experienced between 22 December 2018 and 27 January 2019 significantly delayed our ability to conduct integration testing as planned for late December/early January, delaying the start of V&V by one month to the end of February 2019.The TESS Mission is funded by NASA's Science Mission Directorate as an Astrophysics Explorer Mission.The Science Processing Operations Center is in the process of testing and deplo!"ing Release 4.0 of thecodebase In the March 2019 tlmeframe. This paper describes the new features or the software and theirlikely impact on the quality of the TESS science data products. The major goals or Release 4.0 are to Imtheidentification of instrumental signatures from the light cuNes. We also describe modifications tothe FFI pipeline to allow the generation of FFI light curves, correction of the instrumental systematicstherein, and planet searches, primarily for the purpose of validating the 2-min pipelineagainst the FFI pipeline, but also to be able to provide cotrending basis vectors (C3Vs) ,,.~,.;.derived directly from the FFls to the public to aid them in their extractbn and correction , :-; ~'-'\'.'.of photometry. We also discuss the Improvements In photometric performance• of ~~\":;:•the pipeline and its various components. :,;.-.;The lapse In funding experienced between 22 December 2018 and 27January 2019 significantly delayed our ability to conduct Integrationtesting as planned for late December/early January, delaying thestart of V&V by one month to the end of February 2019.The TESS Mission is funded by NASA's Science Mission Directorateas an Astrophysics Explorer Mission.o.iu.c...,.....~~New Features in SPOC 4.01. Use of quatemions In photometry and centroiding.2. Use of quaternions to Identify high-motion cadences and exclude same.3. Use of the TPS detections to deemphasize pathological cadences ("skyline flattenlng"I.4. Improved CAL calculations for black and smear correction.5. PA brightness metric calculation improvements (induo'e crowding in calrulation)./ • 6. Improved POC spike goodness metric.•~• 7. Improved handling of gaps and momentum duni:>S in POC.8. Improved tuning of POC., 9. Improved attitude tweak correction in PDC.10. Improvements in PDC introduced noise and correlation goodness metrics11. Using the improved spike goodness metric to minimize overlitting in the spikeremover ' • :,''l./ 12. Enable FFI processing through planet search.,,. ,• • "« ,;,,,•.~'A , 13.1 D4.V S mtreinaim-relipnoinrgts d aartcah irveetrdie tvoa Ml aAnSdT p ersistence to database 15. Improved management of jobs on the NAS Pleiadss supercomputer

Jenkins, Jon M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA Tech Briefs, May 2010

Topics covered include: Instrument for Analysis of Greenland's Glacier Mills Cryogenic Moisture Apparatus; A Transportable Gravity Gradiometer Based on Atom Interferometry; Three Methods of Detection of Hydrazines; Crossed, Small-Deflection Energy Analyzer for Wind/Temperature Spectrometer; Wavefront Correction for Large, Flexible Antenna Reflector; Novel Micro Strip-to-Waveguide Feed Employing a Double-Y Junction; Thin-Film Ferro Electric-Coupled Microstripline Phase Shifters With Reduced Device Hysteresis; Two-Stage, 90-GHz, Low-Noise Amplifier; A 311-GHz Fundamental Oscillator Using InP HBT Technology; FPGA Coprocessor Design for an Onboard Multi-Angle Spectro-Polarimetric Imager; Serrating Nozzle Surfaces for Complete Transfer of Droplets; Turbomolecular Pumps for Holding Gases in Open Containers; Triaxial Swirl Injector Element for Liquid-Fueled Engines; Integrated Budget Office Toolbox; PLOT3D Export Tool for Tecplot; Math Description Engine Software Development Kit; Astronaut Office Scheduling System Software; ISS Solar Array Management; Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program; SPOT Program; Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis; System for Packaging Planetary Samples for Return to Earth; Offset Compound Gear Drive; Low-Dead-Volume Inlet for Vacuum Chamber; Simple Check Valves for Microfluidic Devices; A Capillary-Based Static Phase Separator for Highly Variable Wetting Conditions; Gimballing Spacecraft Thruster; Finned Carbon-Carbon Heat Pipe with Potassium Working Fluid; Lightweight Heat Pipes Made from Magnesium; Ceramic Rail-Race Ball Bearings; Improved OTEC System for a Submarine Robot; Reflector Surface Error Compensation in Dual-Reflector Antennas; Enriched Storable Oxidizers for Rocket Engines; Planar Submillimeter-Wave Mixer Technology with Integrated Antenna; Widely Tunable Mode-Hop-Free External-Cavity Quantum Cascade Laser; Non-Geiger-Mode Single-Photon Avalanche Detector with Low Excess Noise; Using Whispering-Gallery-Mode Resonators for Refractometry; RF Device for Acquiring Images of the Human Body; Reactive Collision Avoidance Algorithm; Fast Solution in Sparse LDA for Binary Classification; Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence; Graph-Based Path-Planning for Titan Balloons; Nanolaminate Membranes as Cylindrical Telescope Reflectors; Air-Sea Spray Airborne Radar Profiler Characterizes Energy Fluxes in Hurricanes; Large Telescope Segmented Primary Mirror Alignment; and Simplified Night Sky Display System.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2008

Benchmarking Gas Path Diagnostic Methods: A Public Approach

Recent technology reviews have identified the need for objective assessments of engine health management (EHM) technology. The need is two-fold: technology developers require relevant data and problems to design and validate new algorithms and techniques while engine system integrators and operators need practical tools to direct development and then evaluate the effectiveness of proposed solutions. This paper presents a publicly available gas path diagnostic benchmark problem that has been developed by the Propulsion and Power Systems Panel of The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) to help address these needs. The problem is coded in MATLAB (The MathWorks, Inc.) and coupled with a non-linear turbofan engine simulation to produce "snap-shot" measurements, with relevant noise levels, as if collected from a fleet of engines over their lifetime of use. Each engine within the fleet will experience unique operating and deterioration profiles, and may encounter randomly occurring relevant gas path faults including sensor, actuator and component faults. The challenge to the EHM community is to develop gas path diagnostic algorithms to reliably perform fault detection and isolation. An example solution to the benchmark problem is provided along with associated evaluation metrics. A plan is presented to disseminate this benchmark problem to the engine health management technical community and invite technology solutions.

Simon, Donald L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

The 727 approach energy management system avionics specification (preliminary)

Hardware and software requirements for an Approach Energy Management System (AEMS) consisting of an airborne digital computer and cockpit displays are presented. The displays provide the pilot with a visual indication of when to manually operate the gear, flaps, and throttles during a delayed flap approach so as to reduce approach time, fuel consumption, and community noise. The AEMS is an independent system that does not interact with other navigation or control systems, and is compatible with manually flown or autopilot coupled approaches. Operational use of the AEMS requires a DME ground station colocated with the flight path reference.

Jackson, D. O.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Overview of the Instrumentation for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

Abstract The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) embarked on an ambitious 5 yr survey in 2021 May to explore the nature of dark energy with spectroscopic measurements of 40 million galaxies and quasars. DESI will determine precise redshifts and employ the baryon acoustic oscillation method to measure distances from the nearby universe to beyond redshift z > 3.5, and employ redshift space distortions to measure the growth of structure and probe potential modifications to general relativity. We describe the significant instrumentation we developed to conduct the DESI survey. This includes: a wide-field, 3.°2 diameter prime-focus corrector; a focal plane system with 5020 fiber positioners on the 0.812 m diameter, aspheric focal surface; 10 continuous, high-efficiency fiber cable bundles that connect the focal plane to the spectrographs; and 10 identical spectrographs. Each spectrograph employs a pair of dichroics to split the light into three channels that together record the light from 360–980 nm with a spectral resolution that ranges from 2000–5000. We describe the science requirements, their connection to the technical requirements, the management of the project, and interfaces between subsystems. DESI was installed at the 4 m Mayall Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory and has achieved all of its performance goals. Some performance highlights include an rms positioner accuracy of better than 0.″1 and a median signal-to-noise ratio of 7 of the [O ii ] doublet at 8 × 10 −17 erg s −1 cm −2 in 1000 s for galaxies at z = 1.4–1.6. We conclude with additional highlights from the on-sky validation and commissioning, key successes, and lessons learned.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1984

MST radar data management

One atmospheric variable which can be deduced from stratosphere-troposphere (ST) radar data other than wind speed and direction is C sub n sup 2, related to the eddy dissipation rate. The computation of C sub n sup 2 makes use of the transmitted power (average, or peak plus duty cycle), the range of the echoes, and the returned power. The returned power can be calibrated only if a noise source of known strength is imposed; e.g., in the absence of absolute calibration, one can compare the diurnal noise signal with the galactic sky temperature. Thus to compute C sub n sup 2 one needs the transmitter power, the returned signal as a function of height, and the returned noise at an altitude so high that it is not contaminated by any signal. Now C sub n sup 2 relates with the amount of energy within the inertial subrange, and for many research studies it may be desirable to relate this with background flow as well as shears or irregularities on the size of the sample volume. The latter are quantified by the spectral width.

Nastrom, G. D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Exploration of Near-Term Potential Routes and Procedures for Urban Air Mobility

Urban air mobility is gaining interest as the need for On Demand Mobility in today's congested traffic is becoming high in metropolitan areas. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is envisioned as a concept to transport passengers and cargo safely and efficiently using innovative aircraft in the urban areas. It is expected to improve mobility for the general public, decongest road traffic, reduce transport time and reduce the strain on existing public transport networks. There exist several challenges to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) such as integration of procedures with airspace and the airport, noise levels that are acceptable to the general public, public safety, public acceptance, vehicle certification, and more. Most of the research in the United States and European skies (DLR - German Aerospace Center) related to urban areas has focused on small UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems) flights (NASA's UTM (UAS Traffic Management) research) and their integration with the airspace and building safe operations in densely populated areas. Previous studies on UAM have focused on fast time simulations of the routes that are separated via a separation service and network of routes. Similarly, research in Europe has focused on the approach profile for these innovative aircraft, vertiports and battery life among others. UAM as a part of the On-Demand Mobility effort has provided some guidelines for operations as shown below: Does not require additional ATC (Air Traffic Control) infrastructure; Does not impose additional workload on ATC; Does not restrict operations of traditional airspace users; Will meet appropriate safety thresholds and requirements; Will prioritize operational scalability; Will allow flexibility where possible and structure where necessary. This paper explores potential routes and procedures in a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) experiment that could be applied in the near-term to allow integration of UAM flights into the airspace as well as a large airport. The airspace that was explored was Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) airspace managed by the DFW East Tower in South Flow only. In addition, Dallas Love Field (DAL) and Addison (ADS) airspace were also part of the testbed. The initial set of routes investigated in this study were published helicopter routes in the DFW area. Figure 1 shows class B airspace in DFW area and the origin/destination city pairs where UAM flights flew along with helicopter routes shown in blue. The research focused on exploring procedures for integrating UAM flights into Class Bravo and Class Delta airspace. Three different communication procedures, evaluated with three different levels of UAM traffic, are shown in Table 1. The current day routes were evaluated with current day communication procedures were explored as the first condition. The current day routes were also evaluated in the second condition with reduced communications, which was assumed due to the presence of a Letter Of Agreement (LOA). The purpose of the LOA was to reduce the verbiage associated with pilots getting clearance to Class B airspace from the controllers, pre-assigning beacons codes to the UAM flights, separate routes by assigning altitudes and speeds to flights going in any one direction. Flights were expected to automatically change frequency when exiting Class B airspace, thus transition points for entry and exit points were also specified in the LOA.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRS2004

Remote Sensing of Vineyard FPAR, with Implications for Irrigation Scheduling

Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, acquired at two-meter resolution by an airborne ADAR System 5500, were compared with fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) absorbed by commercial vineyards in Napa Valley, California. An empirical line correction was used to transform image digital counts to surface reflectance. "Apparent" NDVI (generated from digital counts) and "corrected" NDVI (from reflectance) were both strongly related to FPAR of range 0.14-0.50 (both r(sup 2) = 0.97, P < 0.01). By suppressing noise, corrected NDVI should form a more spatially and temporally stable relationship with FPAR, reducing the need for repeated field support. Study results suggest the possibility of using optical remote sensing to monitor the transpiration crop coefficient, thus providing an enhanced spatial resolution component to crop water budget calculations and irrigation management.

Johnson, Lee F.↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Overview of 2014 SBIR Phase 1 and Phase 2 Air-Breathing Propulsion

NASA's Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program focuses on technological innovation by investing in development of innovative concepts and technologies to help NASA mission directorates address critical research needs for Agency programs. This report highlights nine of the innovative SBIR 2014 Phase I and Phase II projects that emphasize one of NASA Glenn Research Center's six core competencies-Air-Breathing Propulsion. The technologies cover a wide spectrum of applications such as development of X-ray computed tomography (CT) imaging method for the measurement of complex 3D ice shapes, phased array techniques for low signal-to-noise ratio wind tunnels, compact kinetic mechanisms for petroleum-derived and alternative aviation fuels, and hybrid electric propulsion systems for a multirotor aircraft. Each featured technology describes an innovation, technical objective, and highlights NASA commercial and industrial applications. This report provides as an opportunity for NASA engineers, researchers, and program managers to learn how NASA SBIR technologies could help their programs and projects, and lead to collaborations and partnerships between the small SBIR companies and NASA that would benefit both.

phased array technique for wind tunnels↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA Electric Aircraft Test Bed (NEAT) Development Plan - Design, Fabrication, Installation

As large airline companies compete to reduce emissions, fuel, noise, and maintenance costs, it is expected that more of their aircraft systems will shift from using turbofan propulsion, pneumatic bleed power, and hydraulic actuation, to instead using electrical motor propulsion, generator power, and electrical actuation. This requires new flight-weight and flight-efficient powertrain components, fault tolerant power management, and electromagnetic interference mitigation technologies. Moreover, initial studies indicate some combination of ambient and cryogenic thermal management and relatively high bus voltages when compared to state of practice will be required to achieve a net system benefit. Developing all these powertrain technologies within a realistic aircraft architectural geometry and under realistic operational conditions requires a unique electric aircraft testbed. This report will summarize existing testbed capabilities located in the U.S. and details the development of a unique complementary testbed that industry and government can utilize to further mature electric aircraft technologies.

Hybrid Electric↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Abstract Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI’s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Landscape fragmentation overturns classical metapopulation thinking

Habitat loss and isolation caused by landscape fragmentation represent a growing threat to global biodiversity. Existing theory suggests that the process will lead to a decline in metapopulation viability. However, since most metapopulation models are restricted to simple networks of discrete habitat patches, the effects of real landscape fragmentation, particularly in stochastic environments, are not well understood. To close this major gap in ecological theory, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model applicable to realistic landscape structures, bridging metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology. This model reproduced classical metapopulation dynamics under conventional model assumptions, but on fragmented landscapes, it uncovered general dynamics that are in stark contradiction to the prevailing views in the ecological and conservation literature. Notably, fragmentation can give rise to a series of dualities: a) positive and negative responses to environmental noise, b) relative slowdown and acceleration in density decline, and c) synchronization and desynchronization of local population dynamics. Furthermore, counter to common intuition, species that interact locally (“residents”) were often more resilient to fragmentation than long-ranging “migrants.” This set of findings signals a need to fundamentally reconsider our approach to ecosystem management in a noisy and fragmented world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗