Modeling the Large and Small Orbital Debris Populations for Environment Remediation
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Liou, J. -C.↗
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Debris Flux Comparisons From The Goldstone Radar, Haystack Radar, and Hax Radar Prior, During, and After the Last Solar Maximum
The continual monitoring of low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment using highly sensitive radars is essential for an accurate characterization of these dynamic populations. Debris populations are continually evolving since there are new debris sources, previously unrecognized debris sources, and debris loss mechanisms that are dependent on the dynamic space environment. Such radar data are used to supplement, update, and validate existing orbital debris models. NASA has been utilizing radar observations of the debris environment for over a decade from three complementary radars: the NASA JPL Goldstone radar, the MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) Long Range Imaging Radar (known as the Haystack radar), and the MIT/LL Haystack Auxiliary radar (HAX). All of these systems are highly sensitive radars that operate in a fixed staring mode to statistically sample orbital debris in the LEO environment. Each of these radars is ideally suited to measure debris within a specific size region. The Goldstone radar generally observes objects with sizes from 2 mm to 1 cm. The Haystack radar generally measures from 5 mm to several meters. The HAX radar generally measures from 2 cm to several meters. These overlapping size regions allow a continuous measurement of cumulative debris flux versus diameter from 2 mm to several meters for a given altitude window. This is demonstrated for all three radars by comparing the debris flux versus diameter over 200 km altitude windows for 3 nonconsecutive years from 1998 through 2003. These years correspond to periods before, during, and after the peak of the last solar cycle. Comparing the year to year flux from Haystack for each of these altitude regions indicate statistically significant changes in subsets of the debris populations. Potential causes of these changes are discussed. These analysis results include error bars that represent statistical sampling errors, and are detailed in this paper.
Stokely, C. L.↗
JSC Orbital Debris Website Description
Purpose: The website provides information about the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at JSC, which is the lead NASA center for orbital debris research. It is recognized world-wide for its leadership in addressing orbital debris issues. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has taken the international lead in conducting measurements of the environment and in developing the technical consensus for adopting mitigation measures to protect users of the orbital environment. Work at the center continues with developing an improved understanding of the orbital debris environment and measures that can be taken to control its growth. Major Contents: Orbital Debris research is divided into the following five broad efforts. Each area of research contains specific information as follows: 1) Modeling - NASA scientists continue to develop and upgrade orbital debris models to describe and characterize the current and future debris environment. Evolutionary and engineering models are described in detail. Downloadable items include a document in PDF format and executable software. 2) Measurements - Measurements of near-Earth orbital debris are accomplished by conducting ground-based and space-based observations of the orbital debris environment. The data from these sources provide validation of the environment models and identify the presence of new sources. Radar, optical and surface examinations are described. External links to related topics are provided. 3) Protection - Orbital debris protection involves conducting hypervelocity impact measurements to assess the risk presented by orbital debris to operating spacecraft and developing new materials and new designs to provide better protection from the environment with less weight penalty. The data from this work provides the link between the environment defined by the models and the risk presented by that environment to operating spacecraft and provides recommendations on design and operations procedures to reduce the risk as required. These data also help in the analysis and interpretation of impact features on returned spacecraft surfaces. 4) Mitigation - Controlling the growth of the orbital debris population is a high priority for NASA, the United States, and the major space-faring nations of the world to preserve near-Earth space for future generations. Mitigation measures can take the form of curtailing or preventing the creation of new debris, designing satellites to withstand impacts by small debris, and implementing operational procedures ranging from utilizing orbital regimes with less debris, adopting specific spacecraft attitudes, and even maneuvering to avoid collisions with debris. Downloadable items include several documents in PDF format and executable software.and 5) Reentry - Because of the increasing number of objects in space, NASA has adopted guidelines and assessment procedures to reduce the number of non-operational spacecraft and spent rocket upper stages orbiting the Earth. One method of postmission disposal is to allow reentry of these spacecraft, either from orbital decay (uncontrolled entry) or with a controlled entry. Orbital decay may be achieved by firing engines to lower the perigee altitude so that atmospheric drag will eventually cause the spacecraft to enter. However, the surviving debris impact footprint cannot be guaranteed to avoid inhabited landmasses. Controlled entry normally occurs by using a larger amount of propellant with a larger propulsion system to drive the spacecraft to enter the atmosphere at a steeper flight path angle. It will then enter at a more precise latitude, longitude, and footprint in a nearly uninhabited impact region, generally located in the ocean.
Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
Report on orbital debris
The success of space endeavors depends upon a space environment sufficiently free of debris to enable the safe and dependable operation of spacecraft. An environment overly cluttered with debris would threaten the ability to utilize space for a wide variety of scientific, technological, military, and commercial purposes. Man made space debris (orbital debris) differs from natural meteoroids because it remains in earth orbit during its lifetime and is not transient through the space around the Earth. The orbital debris environment is considered. The space environment is described along with sources of orbital debris. The current national space policy is examined, along with ways to minimize debris generation and ways to survive the debris environment. International efforts, legal issues and commercial regulations are also examined.
Source record↗
The Space Debris Environment for the ISS Orbit
With thirty-five planned missions over the next five years, the International Space Station (ISS) will be the focus for manned space activity. At least 6 different vehicles will transport crew and supplies to and from the nominally 400 km, 51.6 degree orbit. When completed, the ISS will be the largest space structure ever assembled and hence the largest target for space debris. Recent work at the Johnson Space Center has focused on updating the existing space debris models. The Orbital Debris Engineering Model, has been restructured to take advantage of state of the art desktop computing capability and revised with recent measurements from Haystack and Goldstone radars, additional analysis of LDEF and STS impacts, and the most recent SSN catalog. The new model also contains the capability to extrapolate the current environment in time to the year 2030. A revised meteoroid model based on the work of Divine has also been developed, and is called the JSC Meteoroid Model. The new model defines flux on the target per unit angle per unit speed, and for Earth orbit, includes the meteor showers. This paper quantifies the space debris environment for the ISS orbit from natural and anthropogenic sources. Particle flux and velocity distributions as functions of size and angle are be given for particles 10 microns and larger for altitudes from 350 to 450 km. The environment is projected forward in time until 2030.
Theall, Jeff↗
Sources of orbital debris and the projected environment for future spacecraft
The major source of the nearly 5000 objects currently observed orbiting the earth is from rocket explosions. These explosions have almost certainly produced an even larger unobserved population. If the current trend continues, collisions between orbiting fragments and other space objects could be frequent. By the year 2000 satellite fragmentation by hypervelocity collisions could become the major source of earth orbiting objects, resulting in a self propagating debris belt. The flux within this belt could exceed the meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft design.
Kessler, D. J.↗
Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Threats to NASA's Docking Seals: Initial Assessment and Methodology
The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) will be exposed to the Micrometeoroid Orbital Debris (MMOD) environment in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) during missions to the International Space Station (ISS) and to the micrometeoroid environment during lunar missions. The CEV will be equipped with a docking system which enables it to connect to ISS and the lunar module known as Altair; this docking system includes a hatch that opens so crew and supplies can pass between the spacecrafts. This docking system is known as the Low Impact Docking System (LIDS) and uses a silicone rubber seal to seal in cabin air. The rubber seal on LIDS presses against a metal flange on ISS (or Altair). All of these mating surfaces are exposed to the space environment prior to docking. The effects of atomic oxygen, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and MMOD have been estimated using ground based facilities. This work presents an initial methodology to predict meteoroid and orbital debris threats to candidate docking seals being considered for LIDS. The methodology integrates the results of ground based hypervelocity impacts on silicone rubber seals and aluminum sheets, risk assessments of the MMOD environment for a variety of mission scenarios, and candidate failure criteria. The experimental effort that addressed the effects of projectile incidence angle, speed, mass, and density, relations between projectile size and resulting crater size, and relations between crater size and the leak rate of candidate seals has culminated in a definition of the seal/flange failure criteria. The risk assessment performed with the BUMPER code used the failure criteria to determine the probability of failure of the seal/flange system and compared the risk to the allotted risk dictated by NASA's program requirements.
deGroh, Henry C., III↗
Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Threats to NASA's Docking Seals: Initial Assessment and Methodology
The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) will be exposed to the Micrometeoroid Orbital Debris (MMOD) environment in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) during missions to the International Space Station (ISS) and to the micrometeoroid environment during lunar missions. The CEV will be equipped with a docking system which enables it to connect to ISS and the lunar module known as Altair; this docking system includes a hatch that opens so crew and supplies can pass between the spacecrafts. This docking system is known as the Low Impact Docking System (LIDS) and uses a silicone rubber seal to seal in cabin air. The rubber seal on LIDS presses against a metal flange on ISS (or Altair). All of these mating surfaces are exposed to the space environment prior to docking. The effects of atomic oxygen, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and MMOD have been estimated using ground based facilities. This work presents an initial methodology to predict meteoroid and orbital debris threats to candidate docking seals being considered for LIDS. The methodology integrates the results of ground based hypervelocity impacts on silicone rubber seals and aluminum sheets, risk assessments of the MMOD environment for a variety of mission scenarios, and candidate failure criteria. The experimental effort that addressed the effects of projectile incidence angle, speed, mass, and density, relations between projectile size and resulting crater size, and relations between crater size and the leak rate of candidate seals has culminated in a definition of the seal/flange failure criteria. The risk assessment performed with the BUMPER code used the failure criteria to determine the probability of failure of the seal/flange system and compared the risk to the allotted risk dictated by NASA s program requirements.
deGroh, Henry C., III↗
ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison
The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.
Krisko, Paula H.↗
ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison
The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publicly released within the last year. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper describes the population generation and categorization of both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population verification. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are presented and discussed. Future collaborative analysis is noted.
Krisko, P. H.↗
Using the Shuttle In Situ Window and Radiator Data for Meteoroid Measurements
Every time NASA's Space Shuttle flew in orbit, it was exposed to the natural meteoroid and artificial debris environment. NASA Johnson Space Center maintains a database of impact cratering data of 60 Shuttle missions flown since the mid‐1990's that were inspected after flight. These represent a total net exposure time to the space environment of 2 years. Impact damage was recorded on the windows and radiators, and in many cases information on the impactor material was determined by later analysis of the crater residue. This information was used to segregate damage caused by natural meteoroids and artificial space debris. The windows represent a total area of 3.565 sq m, and were capable of resolving craters down to about 10 micrometers in size. The radiators represent a total area of 119.26 sq m, and saw damage from objects up to approximately 1 mm in diameter. These data were used extensively in the development of NASA's ORDEM 3.0 Orbital Debris Environment Model, and gives a continuous picture of the orbital debris environment in material type and size ranging from about 10 micrometers to 1 mm. However, the meteoroid data from the Shuttles have never been fully analyzed. For the orbital debris work, special "as flown" files were created that tracked the pointing of the surface elements and their shadowing by structure (such as the ISS during docking). Unfortunately, such files for the meteoroid environment have not yet been created. This talk will introduce these unique impact data and describe how they were used for orbital debris measurements. We will then discuss some simple first‐order analyses of the meteoroid data, and point the way for future analyses.
Matney, Mark↗
Reflectance Spectra Comparison of Orbital Debris, Intact Spacecraft, and Intact Rocket Bodies in the GEO Regime
A key objective of NASA s Orbital Debris program office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is to characterize the debris environment by way of assessing the physical properties (type, mass, density, and size) of objects in orbit. Knowledge of the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) debris environment in particular can be used to determine the hazard probability at specific GEO altitudes and aid predictions of the future environment. To calculate an optical size from an intensity measurement of an object in the GEO regime, a 0.175 albedo is assumed currently. However, identification of specific material type or types could improve albedo accuracy and yield a more accurate size estimate for the debris piece. Using spectroscopy, it is possible to determine the surface materials of space objects. The study described herein used the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) to record spectral data in the 0.6 to 2.5 micron regime on eight catalogued space objects. For comparison, all of the objects observed were in GEO or near-GEO. The eight objects consisted of two intact spacecraft, three rocket bodies, and three catalogued debris pieces. Two of the debris pieces stemmed from Titan 3C transtage breakup and the third is from COSMOS 2054. The reflectance spectra of the Titan 3C pieces share similar slopes (increasing with wavelength) and lack any strong absorption features. The COSMOS debris spectra is flat and has no absorption features. In contrast, the intact spacecraft show classic absorption features due to solar panels with a strong band gap feature near 1 micron. The two spacecraft are spin-stabilized objects and therefore have solar panels surrounding the outer surface. Two of the three rocket bodies are inertial upper stage (IUS) rocket bodies and have similar looking spectra. The slopes flatten out near 1.5 microns with absorption features in the near-infrared that are similar to that of white paint. The third rocket body has a similar flattening of slope but with fewer features of white paint - indicating that the surface paint on the SL-12 may be different than the IUS. This study shows that the surface materials of debris appear different spectrally than intact rocket bodies and spacecraft and therefore are not believed to be solar panel material or pristine white paint. Further investigation is necessary in order to eliminate materials as possible choices for the debris pieces.
Barker, Ed↗
Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Vol. 13, No. 2
Topics include: debris clouds left by satellite collision; debris flyby near the International Space Station; and break-up of an ullage motor from a Russian Proton launch vehicle. Findings from the analysis of the STS-126 Shuttle Endeavour window impact damage are provided. Abstracts from the NASA Orbital Debris program office are presented and address a variety of topics including: Reflectance Spectra Comparison of Orbital Debris, Intact Spacecraft, and Intact Rocket Bodies in the GEO Regime; Shape Distribution of Fragments From Microsatellite Impact Tests; Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Threat Mitigation Techniques for the Space Shuttle Orbiter; Space Debris Environment Remediation Concepts; and, In Situ Measurement Activities at the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office. Additionally, a Meeting Report is provided for the 12 meeting of the NASA/DoD Orbital Debris Working Group.
Liou, J.-C.↗
The Near-Earth Orbital Debris Problem and the Challenges for Environment Remediation
The near-Earth space environment has been gradually polluted with orbital debris (OD) since the beginning of space activities 55 years ago. Although this problem has been known to the research community for decades, the public was, in general, unaware of the issue until the anti-satellite test conducted by China in 2007 and the collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009. The latter also underlined the potential of an ongoing collision cascade effect (the "Kessler Syndrome") in the low Earth orbit (LEO, the region below 2000 km altitude). Recent modeling results have indicated that mitigation measures commonly adopted by the international space community will be insufficient to stabilize the LEO debris population. To better limit the OD population increase, more aggressive actions must be considered. There are three options for OD environment remediation-removal of large/massive intact objects to address the root cause of the OD population growth problem, removal of ~5-mm-to-1 cm debris to mitigate the main mission-ending threats for the majority of operational spacecraft, and prevention of major debris-generating collisions as a temporary means to slow down the OD population increase. The technology, engineering, and cost challenges to carry out any of these three options are monumental. It will require innovative ideas, game-changing technologies, and major collaborations at the international level to address the OD problem and preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations.
Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison
The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publically released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs, particularly in LEO. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris and can have enough momentum to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. In this paper, we present and detail the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations from both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 in LEO. We review population categories: particle sources for MASTER-2009, particle densities for ORDEM 3.0. We describe data sources and their uses, and supporting models. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.
Krisko, P. H.↗
NASA Orbital Debris Large-Object Baseline Population in ORDEM 3.0
The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has created and validated high fidelity populations of the debris environment for the latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM 3.0). Though the model includes fluxes of objects 10 um and larger, this paper considers particle fluxes for 1 cm and larger debris objects from low Earth orbit (LEO) through Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). These are validated by several reliable radar observations through the Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radars. ORDEM 3.0 populations were designed for the purpose of assisting, debris researchers and sensor developers in planning and testing. This environment includes a background derived from the LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris evolutionary model (LEGEND) with a Bayesian rescaling as well as specific events such as the FY-1C anti-satellite test, the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 accidental collision, and the Soviet/Russian Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium droplet releases. The environment described in this paper is the most realistic orbital debris population larger than 1 cm, to date. We describe derivations of the background population and added specific populations. We present sample validation charts of our 1 cm and larger LEO population against Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radar measurements.
Krisco, Paula H.↗
Conversion of Environment Files from ORDEM 3 & MEM 3 to STENVI
To perform Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) analyses, NASA describes the orbital debris particle environment using the ORDEM 3 tool and the micrometeoroid environment using the MEM 3 tool. Both output files that detail the flux of particles as a function of several parameters. European MMOD analyses use different tools to perform similar functions, including the Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER) environment model, which outputs flux data in the Standard Environment Interface (STENVI) format. The NASA Johnson Space Center Hypervelocity Impact Technology Group was asked to create a converter to translate flux data from the output file formats used by ORDEM 3.x and MEM 3 into the STENVI file format. Validation was performed to ensure that the converter was reproducing the input data correctly. The Bumper 3 MMOD risk assessment tool has a capability for reading ORDEM 3.x, MEM 3, and STENVI environment file formats and was used to compare MMOD risk results generated using the converter’s output STENVI files to the risk results generated using the input ORDEM 3.x and MEM 3 igloo files. Specific point comparisons validated that the converter translated the environment data correctly, producing the intended output. However, realistic risk assessments showed that the bin methodology employed by Bumper for determining particle flux as a function of particle size when reading files in STENVI format produces much higher MMOD risk than the point-interpolation methodology used in Bumper risk assessments using ORDEM and MEM. Modifications to how Bumper 3 reads STENVI files during analyses are considered to improve Bumper’s ability to perform useful analyses with environment files in this format.
STENVI↗
Radar Measurements of Orbital Debris from the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR): 2020 to 2022
For over three decades, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has partnered with the U.S. Department of Defense and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) to collect radar data on the orbital debris (OD) environment. These radar measurements are used to statistically measure cm and sub-cm debris in low Earth orbit (LEO) that is used to define the current debris environment, monitor how the environment evolves, and support predictions of the future debris environment. Currently, the principal ground-based radar sensor used by the ODPO is the MIT/LL Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR). HUSIR provides data on OD down to approximately 5 mm in size at altitudes below 1000 km. This paper will deliver an overview of recent HUSIR measurements of the LEO debris environment for calendar years 2020 to 2022. Process improvements will be highlighted along with results of interest, including the effects of the 15 November 2021 Russian direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) test on the defunct COSMOS 1408 spacecraft.
Jessica A. Arnold↗