Results for “parameter space” — Page 11

DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneous access to high normalized density, current, pressure, and confinement in strongly-shaped diverted negative triangularity plasmas

Strongly-shaped diverted negative triangularity (NT) plasmas in the DIII-D tokamak demonstrate simultaneous access to high normalized density, current, pressure, and confinement. NT plasmas are shown to exist across an expansive parameter space compatible with high fusion power production, revealing surprisingly good core stability properties that compare favorably to conventional positive triangularity plasmas in DIII-D. Non-dimensionalizing the key parameters, expanded operating spaces featuring edge safety factors below 3, normalized betas above 3, Greenwald density fractions above 1, and high-confinement mode (H-mode) confinement qualities above 1 are observed, even simultaneously, and all with a robustly stable edge free from deleterious edge-localized mode instabilities. Scaling of the confinement time with engineering parameters reveals at least a linear dependence on plasma current although with significant power degradation, both in excess of expected H-mode scalings. These results increase confidence that NT plasmas are a viable approach to realize fusion power and open directions for future detailed study.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Exploration and Surrogate Emulation of Nonlinear Beam-Response Geometry in the LBNF Beamline

Next-generation long-baseline neutrino experiments aim to achieve multi-MW proton beam power while reducing accelerator-induced systematic uncertainties. At Fermilab, the LBNF beamline is designed for 1.2 MW operation with PIP-II and is upgradeable to 2.4 MW. DUNE will probe the three-flavor neutrino paradigm and search for CP violation, requiring precise neutrino-flux normalization and improved control of accelerator-related uncertainties. Within the LBNF beamline, the System for On-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND) will constrain flux uncertainties using precision near-detector measurements, while the Muon Monitor System (MuMS) will provide beamline diagnostics sensitive to the proton beam, target, and horn configuration. However, the pion phase space relevant for DUNE depends simultaneously on many correlated parameters, including beam centroid, beam width, horn current and alignment, target position, optics shifts, and radiation-induced changes. Consequently, MuMS observables exhibit nonlinear and coupled responses that are difficult to characterize using traditional one-parameter scans. To address this challenge, we are developing a Bayesian Exploration framework coupled to physics-informed surrogate emulators trained on Geant4 beamline simulations. Gaussian-process emulators provide both fast predictions and uncertainty estimates, enabling adaptive selection of new simulation points in beam-parameter space. As an initial demonstration, we construct surrogate emulators for MuMS response observables using a verified simulation campaign spanning proton-beam steering conditions. The emulators reproduce the simulated dependence of MuMS centroid and gradient observables while providing predictive uncertainties, and serve as the foundation for future multidimensional exploration including beam width, horn current, and additional beamline parameters. This work establishes a framework for uncertainty-aware beam monitoring, adaptive simulation campaigns, and rapid beam-response inference for future DUNE operations.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

Parameter estimation for boundary value problems by integral equations of the second kind

This paper is concerned with the parameter estimation for boundary integral equations of the second kind. The parameter estimation technique through use of the spline collocation method is proposed. Based on the compactness assumption imposed on the parameter space, the convergence analysis for the numerical method of parameter estimation is discussed. The results obtained here are applied to a boundary parameter estimation for 2-D elliptic systems.

Kojima, Fumio↗

NASA NTRS1991

Excitation of millimeter and submillimeter water masers

The excitation of maser emission in millimeter and submillimeter transitions of interstellar and circumstellar water is considered. An escape probability method is used to determine the equilibrium populations in 349 rotational states of both ortho- and para-water under varying conditions of gas temperature, density, water abundance, and radiation field. It is shown that, under those conditions believed to prevail around late-type stars and within star-forming regions, strong millimeter and submillimeter water maser emission can be generated by collisional excitations by H2. Several maser transitions can have strengths close to that of the 22 GHz line. The water maser line which can be observed from mountaintop facilities and those which will require air- or space-borne platforms are indicated. The exact portion of parameter space in which each maser transition exhibits peak emission is shown.

Neufeld, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2023

KMT-2021-BLG-1150Lb: Microlensing Planet Detected Through a Densely Covered Planetary-Caustic Signal

Aims. Recently, there have been reports of various types of degeneracies in the interpretation of planetary signals induced by planetary caustics. In this work we check whether such degeneracies persist in the case of well-covered signals by analyzing the lensing event KMT-2021-BLG-1150, the light curve of which exhibits a densely and continuously covered short-term anomaly. Methods. In order to identify degenerate solutions, we thoroughly investigated the parameter space by conducting dense grid searches for the lensing parameters. We then checked the severity of the degeneracy among the identified solutions. Results. We identify a pair of planetary solutions resulting from the well-known inner-outer degeneracy, and find that interpreting the anomaly is not subject to any degeneracy other than the inner-outer degeneracy. The measured parameters of the planet separation (normalized to the Einstein radius) and mass ratio between the lens components are ( s , q ) in ∼ (1.297, 1.10 × 10 −3 ) for the inner solution and ( s , q ) out ∼ (1.242, 1.15 × 10 −3 ) for the outer solution. According to a Bayesian estimation, the lens is a planetary system consisting of a planet with a mass M p = 0.88 +0.38 −0.36 M J and its host with a mass M h = 0.73 +0.32 −0.30 M ⊙ lying toward the Galactic center at a distance D L = 3.8 +1.3 −1.2 kpc. By conducting analyses using mock data sets prepared to mimic those obtained with data gaps and under various observational cadences, we find that gaps in data can result in various degenerate solutions, while the observational cadence does not pose a serious degeneracy problem as long as the anomaly feature can be delineated.

Gravitational microlensing↗

NASA NTRS2023

Optimizing Retrieval Spaces of Bio-Optical Models for Remote Sensing of Ocean Color

We investigated the optimal number of independent parameters required to accurately represent spectral remote sensing reflectances (𝑅 rs ) by performing principal component analysis on quality controlled in situ and synthetic 𝑅 rs data. We found that retrieval algorithms should be able to retrieve no more than four free parameters from 𝑅 rs spectra for most ocean waters. In addition, we evaluated the performance of five different bio-optical models with different numbers of free parameters for the direct inversion of in-water inherent optical properties (IOPs) from in situ and synthetic 𝑅 rs data. The multi-parameter models showed similar performances regardless of the number of parameters. Considering the computational cost associated with larger parameter spaces, we recommend bio-optical models with three free parameters for the use of IOP or joint retrieval algorithms.

Ocean Color↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗

NASA NTRS2019

Partition-based Feasible Integer Solution Pre-computation for Hybrid Model Predictive Control

For multiparametric mixed-integer convex programming problems such as those encountered in hybrid model predictive control, we propose an algorithm for generating a feasible partition of a subset of the parameter space. The result is a static map from the current parameter to a suboptimal integer solution such that the remaining convex program is feasible. Convergence is proved with a new insight that the overlap among the feasible parameter sets of each integer solution governs the partition complexity. The partition is stored as a tree which makes querying the feasible solution efﬁcient. The algorithm can be used to warm start a mixed integer solver with a real-time guarantee or to provide a reference integer solution in several suboptimal MPC schemes. The algorithm is tested on randomly generated systems with up to six states, demonstrating the effectiveness of the approach.

Bayard, David S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Targeted Adaptive Design

Modern advanced manufacturing and advanced materials design often require searches of relatively high-dimensional process control parameter spaces for settings that result in optimal structure, property, and performance parameters. The mapping from the former to the latter must be determined from noisy experiments or from expensive simulations. Here, we abstract this problem to a mathematical framework in which an unknown function from a control space to a design space must be ascertained by means of expensive noisy measurements, which locate control settings generating desired design features within specified tolerances, with quantified uncertainty. We describe targeted adaptive design (TAD), a new algorithm that performs this sampling task efficiently. TAD creates a Gaussian process surrogate model of the unknown mapping at each iterative stage, proposing a new batch of control settings to sample experimentally and optimizing the updated expected log-predictive probability density of the target design. TAD either stops upon locating a solution with uncertainties that fit inside the tolerance box or uses a measure of expected future information to determine that the search space has been exhausted with no solution. TAD thus embodies the exploration-exploitation tension in a manner that recalls, but is essentially different from, Bayesian optimization and optimal experimental design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

CCDC 2376626: Experimental Crystal Structure Determination

An entry from the Cambridge Structural Database, the world’s repository for small molecule crystal structures. The entry contains experimental data from a crystal diffraction study. The deposited dataset for this entry is freely available from the CCDC and typically includes 3D coordinates, cell parameters, space group, experimental conditions and quality measures.

Cell Parameters↗

DOE OSTI2025

CCDC 2376627: Experimental Crystal Structure Determination

An entry from the Cambridge Structural Database, the world’s repository for small molecule crystal structures. The entry contains experimental data from a crystal diffraction study. The deposited dataset for this entry is freely available from the CCDC and typically includes 3D coordinates, cell parameters, space group, experimental conditions and quality measures.

Cell Parameters↗

DOE OSTI2025

CCDC 2376628: Experimental Crystal Structure Determination

An entry from the Cambridge Structural Database, the world’s repository for small molecule crystal structures. The entry contains experimental data from a crystal diffraction study. The deposited dataset for this entry is freely available from the CCDC and typically includes 3D coordinates, cell parameters, space group, experimental conditions and quality measures.

Cell Parameters↗

DOE OSTI2025

CCDC 2376629: Experimental Crystal Structure Determination

An entry from the Cambridge Structural Database, the world’s repository for small molecule crystal structures. The entry contains experimental data from a crystal diffraction study. The deposited dataset for this entry is freely available from the CCDC and typically includes 3D coordinates, cell parameters, space group, experimental conditions and quality measures.

Cell Parameters↗

DOE OSTI2025

CCDC 2376630: Experimental Crystal Structure Determination

An entry from the Cambridge Structural Database, the world’s repository for small molecule crystal structures. The entry contains experimental data from a crystal diffraction study. The deposited dataset for this entry is freely available from the CCDC and typically includes 3D coordinates, cell parameters, space group, experimental conditions and quality measures.

Cell Parameters↗

DOE OSTI2025

CCDC 2376632: Experimental Crystal Structure Determination

An entry from the Cambridge Structural Database, the world’s repository for small molecule crystal structures. The entry contains experimental data from a crystal diffraction study. The deposited dataset for this entry is freely available from the CCDC and typically includes 3D coordinates, cell parameters, space group, experimental conditions and quality measures.

Cell Parameters↗

DOE OSTI2025

CCDC 2376633: Experimental Crystal Structure Determination

An entry from the Cambridge Structural Database, the world’s repository for small molecule crystal structures. The entry contains experimental data from a crystal diffraction study. The deposited dataset for this entry is freely available from the CCDC and typically includes 3D coordinates, cell parameters, space group, experimental conditions and quality measures.

Cell Parameters↗

DOE OSTI2025

CCDC 2376634: Experimental Crystal Structure Determination

An entry from the Cambridge Structural Database, the world’s repository for small molecule crystal structures. The entry contains experimental data from a crystal diffraction study. The deposited dataset for this entry is freely available from the CCDC and typically includes 3D coordinates, cell parameters, space group, experimental conditions and quality measures.

Cell Parameters↗