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At least 199 records · Page 11

Intensity measure adequacy assessment for nonlinear site response using Information Theory

Nonlinear site response modeling is a crucial aspect of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. Site amplification models routinely rely on a rock intensity measure to characterize the strength of the bedrock motion. However, the adequacy of such intensity measures towards predicting amplifications across the oscillator period range has not been investigated in the literature. This paper analyzes the adequacy of rock intensity measures using state of the art criterion established in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering and techniques from Information Theory. The efficiency and the sufficiency of several rock intensity measure are assessed. It was found that spectral accelerations at low periods usually are adequate for predicting amplifications across the period range. This supports the current practice of using Peak Ground Acceleration in Ground Motion Models. However, for extremely soft sites, which demonstrate nonlinear effects well into the period range, it is better practice to ensure that amplification and spectral acceleration share the same oscillator period. Lastly, for predicting the peak shear strain (an important parameter that controls nonlinearity of site response), Peak Ground Velocity is generally adequate, and this conclusion is in line with the definition of proxy shear strain.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Partitioning Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of CO 2 Using Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF)

Accurate partitioning of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) is crucial for understanding carbon cycle dynamics under changing climate. However, it remains as a long-standing problem in global ecology due to lack of independent constraining information for the two offsetting component fluxes. solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), a mechanistic proxy for photosynthesis, holds great promise to improve NEE partitioning by constraining GPP. We developed a parsimonious SIF-based approach for NEE partitioning and examined its performance using synthetic simulations and field measurements. This approach outperforms conventional approaches in reproducing simulated GPP and R eco , especially under high vapor pressure deficit. For field measurements, it results in lower daytime GPP and R eco than conventional approaches. Furthermore, this study made the first attempt to demonstrate SIF's potential for improving NEE partitioning accuracy and sets the stage for future efforts to examine its robustness and scalability under real-world environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TH-AB-207A-04: Assessment of Patients’ Cumulative Effective Dose From CT Examinations

Purpose: The Joint Commission requires institutions to consider patient’s age and recent imaging exams when deciding on the most appropriate type of imaging exam. Additionally, knowing patient’s imaging history can help prevent duplicate scans. Radiation dose management software affords new opportunities to identify and utilize patients with high cumulative doses as one proxy for subsequent review of imaging history and opportunities in avoiding redundant exams. Methods: Using dose management software (Radimetrics, Bayer Healthcare) a total of 72073 CT examinations performed from Jan 2015 to Jan 2016 were examined to categorize patients with a cumulative effective dose of 100 mSv and above. This threshold was selected based on epidemiological studies on populations exposed to radiation, which demonstrate a statistical increase of cancer risk at doses above 100 mSv. Histories of patients with highest cumulative dose and highest number of exams were further investigated by a Radiologist for appropriateness of recurrent studies and potential opportunities for reduction. Results: Out of 34762 patients, 927 (2.7%) were identified with a cumulative dose of 100 mSv and above. The highest cumulative dose (842 mSv) belonged to an oncology patient who underwent 2 diagnostic exams and 9 interventional ablative CT guided procedures. The patient with highest number of exams (56 counts) and cumulative dose of 170 mSv was a 17 year old trauma patient. An imaging history review of these two patients did not suggest any superfluous scans. Conclusion: Our limited pilot study suggests that recurrent CT exams for patients with oncologic or severe trauma history may be warranted and appropriate. As a result, for future studies we will be focusing on high dose patient cohorts not associated with oncology or severe trauma. Additionally, the review process itself has suggested areas for potential improvement in patient care, including improved documentation and Radiologist involvement in patient management. Dr. McNitt-Gray’s disclosures: Institutional research agreement, Siemens Healthcare; Past recipient, research grant support, Siemens Healthcare; Consultant, Toshiba America Medical Systems; Consultant, Samsung Electronics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Simple Statistical Models for Predicting Overpressure Due to CO2 and Low-Salinity Waste-Fluid Injection into Deep Saline Formations

Deep saline aquifers have been used for waste-fluid disposal for decades and are the proposed targets for large-scale CO2 storage to mitigate CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Due to relatively limited experience with CO2 injection in deep saline formations and given that the injection targets for CO2 sometimes are the same as waste-fluid disposal formations, it could be beneficial to model and compare both practices and learn from the waste-fluid disposal industry. In this paper, we model CO2 injection in the Patterson Field, which has been proposed as a site for storage of 50 Mt of industrial CO2 over 25 years. We propose general models that quickly screen the reservoir properties and calculate pressure changes near and far from the injection wellbore, accounting for variable reservoir properties. The reservoir properties we investigated were rock compressibility, injection rate, vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio, average reservoir permeability and porosity, reservoir temperature and pressure, and the injectant total dissolved solids (TDS) in cases of waste-fluid injection. We used experimental design to select and perform simulation runs, performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the important variables on pressure build-up, and then fit a regression model to the simulation runs to obtain simple proxy models for changes in average reservoir pressure and bottomhole pressure. The CO2 injection created more pressure compared to saline waste-fluids, when similar mass was injected. However, we found a more significant pressure buildup at the caprock-reservoir interface and lower pressure buildup at the bottom of the reservoir when injecting CO2 compared with waste-fluid injection.

Ansari, Esmail↗

High Performance, High Fidelity: A GPU‐Accelerated Doubly‐Periodic Configuration of the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 1 (DP‐SCREAMv1)

The development of the Simplified Cloud Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Atmosphere Model (SCREAMv1) enables global storm-resolving simulations on modern GPU-based supercomputers. However, the high computational cost of SCREAMv1 limits its routine use for process-level studies, creating a need for efficient proxy configurations. This study addresses this gap by introducing DP-SCREAMv1, a doubly periodic cloud-resolving model designed to be fully consistent with SCREAMv1 while enabling high-resolution, long-duration simulations at significantly reduced computational expense by simulating a limited doubly periodic domain rather than the entire globe. Built on a C++/Kokkos architecture, DP-SCREAMv1 achieves exceptional performance scalability on GPU systems and includes a rich library of cases for validation and scientific exploration. In this work, we demonstrate short wall-clock times at SCREAMv1's default resolution and show that DP-SCREAMv1 supports routine execution of large-domain, high-resolution experiments that were previously challenging in practice. Furthermore, we show that DP-SCREAMv1 enables routine execution of “Giga-LES” style simulations and facilitates large-domain, high-resolution simulations that were recently considered burdensome to perform. These results document an efficient, fully consistent process-level configuration for SCREAMv1 (DP-SCREAMv1) and illustrate its use for long-duration and large-domain experiments at cloud-resolving to eddy-permitting resolution.

Environmental sciences↗

Beyond mass: detecting secondary halo properties with galaxy-galaxy lensing

ABSTRACT Secondary halo properties beyond mass, such as the mass accretion rate (MAR), concentration, and the half mass scale, are essential in understanding the formation of large-scale structure and dark matter haloes. In this paper, we study the impact of secondary halo properties on the galaxy-galaxy lensing observable, ΔΣ. We build an emulator trained on N-body simulations to model ΔΣ and quantify the impact of different secondary parameters on the ΔΣ profile. We focus on the impact of MAR on ΔΣ. We show that a 3σ detection of variations in MAR at fixed halo mass could be achieved with the Hyper Suprime Cam survey assuming no baryonic effects and a proxy for MAR with scatter <1.5. We show that the full radial profile of ΔΣ depends on secondary properties at fixed halo mass. Consequently, an emulator that can perform full shape fitting yields better than two times improvement upon the constraints on MAR than only using the outer part of the halo. Finally, we highlight that miscentring and MAR impact the radial profile of ΔΣ in a similar fashion, implying that miscentring and MAR need to be modelled jointly for unbiased estimates of both effects. We show that present-day lensing data sets have the statistical capability to place constraints on halo MAR within our assumptions. Our analysis opens up new possibilities for observationally measuring the assembly history of the dark matter haloes that host galaxies and clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Estimating influenza incidence using search query deceptiveness and generalized ridge regression

Seasonal influenza is a sometimes surprisingly impactful disease, causing thousands of deaths per year along with much additional morbidity. Timely knowledge of the outbreak state is valuable for managing an effective response. The current state of the art is to gather this knowledge using in-person patient contact. While accurate, this is time-consuming and expensive. This has motivated inquiry into new approaches using internet activity traces, based on the theory that lay observations of health status lead to informative features in internet data. These approaches risk being deceived by activity traces having a coincidental, rather than informative, relationship to disease incidence; to our knowledge, this risk has not yet been quantitatively explored. We evaluated both simulated and real activity traces of varying deceptiveness for influenza incidence estimation using linear regression. We found that deceptiveness knowledge does reduce error in such estimates, that it may help automatically- selected features perform as well or better than features that require human curation, and that a semantic distance measure derived from the Wikipedia article category tree serves as a useful proxy for deceptiveness. This suggests that disease incidence estimation models should incorporate not only data about how internet features map to incidence but also additional data to estimate feature deceptiveness. By doing so, we may gain one more step along the path to accurate, reliable disease incidence estimation using internet data. This capability would improve public health by decreasing the cost and increasing the timeliness of such estimates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning enhanced characterization and optimization of photonic cured MAPbI 3 for efficient perovskite solar cells

Photonic curing (PC) can facilitate high-speed perovskite solar cell (PSC) manufacturing because it uses high-intensity light pulses to crystallize perovskite films in milliseconds. However, optimizing PC conditions is challenging due to its many variables, and using power conversion efficiency (PCE) as the optimization metric is both time-consuming and labor-intensive. This work presents a machine learning (ML) approach to optimize PC conditions for fabricating methylammonium lead iodide (MAPbI 3 ) films by quantitatively comparing their ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) absorbance spectra to thermal annealed (TA) films using four similarity metrics. We perform Bayesian optimization coupled with Gaussian process regression (BO-GP) to minimize the similarity metrics. Refining PC conditions using active learning based on BO-GP models, we achieve a PC MAPbI3 film with an absorbance spectrum closely matching a TA reference film, which is further verified by its crystalline and morphological properties. Thus, we demonstrate that the UV-vis absorption spectrum can accurately proxy film quality. Additionally, we use an AI-based segmentation model for a more efficient grain size analysis. However, when we use the optimized PC condition to fabricate PSCs, we find that interaction between MAPbI 3 and the hole transport layer (HTL) during PC critically degrades the PSC performance. By adding a buffer layer between the HTL and MAPbI 3 , the optimized PC PSCs produce a champion PCE of 11.8%, comparable to the TA reference of 11.7%. Using UV-vis similarity metrics instead of device PCE as the objective in our BO-GP method accelerates the optimization of PC processing conditions for MAPbI 3 films.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Using Synchronization as an Indicator of Controllability in a Fleet of Water Heaters

Peak reduction is an important concern that can help reduce the growing stress on distribution grid and allow to defer investments in new capacity. However, the growing concern for customer privacy and comfort may impact the performance of load control for residential devices. Water heaters represent a convenient way of reducing peak due to their ability to store thermal energy for future use. In this paper, we developed a methodology to help utilities gain more insight with respect to the impact of load control efforts for shaving peak with no necessary information about the water heaters except the device status (on/off). To this end, we use a fleet of water heaters in a controlled residential neighborhood in Atlanta, GA. Our findings show that convergence in device status can serve as a proxy for peak shifting during hours of the evening peak.

demand response↗

Data for: Patel et al. Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: A comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data

This dataset contains data and code used for the paper "Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: A comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data" [DOI COMING SOON]A large literature exists on mechanisms driving soil production of the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4. Measurements of these gases’ fluxes are often performed using closed-chamber incubations in the laboratory or in situ, i.e., in the field. Although it is common knowledge that measurements obtained through field studies vs. laboratory incubations can diverge because of the vastly different conditions of these environments, few studies have systematically examined these patterns. It is crucial to understand the magnitude and reasons for any differences, as these data are used to parametrize and benchmark ecosystem- to global-scale models, which are then susceptible to the biases of the source data. Here, we specifically examine how greenhouse gas measurements may be influenced by whether the measurement/incubation was conducted in the field vs. laboratory, focusing on CO2 and CH4 measurements. We use Q10 of greenhouse gas flux (temperature sensitivity) for our analyses, because of the ubiquity of this metric in biological and Earth system sciences and its importance to many modeling frameworks. We predicted that laboratory measurements would be less variable, but also less representative of true field conditions. However, there was greater variability in the Q10 values calculated from lab-based measurements of CO2 fluxes, because lab experiments explore extremes rarely seen in situ, and reflect the physical and chemical disturbances occurring during sampling, transport, and incubation. Overall, respiration Q10 values were significantly greater in laboratory incubations (mean = 4.19) than field measurements (mean = 3.05), with strong influences of incubation temperature and climate region/biome. However, this was in part because field measurements typically represent total respiration (Rs), whereas lab incubations typically represent heterotrophic respiration (Rh), making direct comparisons difficult to interpret. Focusing only on Rh-derived Q10, these values showed almost identical distributions across laboratory (n = 1110) and field (n = 581) experiments, providing strong support for using the former as an experimental proxy for the latter, although we caution that geographic biases in the extant data make this conclusion tentative. Due to a smaller sample size of CH4 Q10 data, we were unable to perform a comparable robust analysis, but we expect similar interactions with soil temperature, moisture, and environmental/climatic variables. Our results here suggest the need for more concerted efforts to document and standardize these data, including sample and site metadata. This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/kaizadp/field_lab_q10 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7106554).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydraulic characterization of a fault zone from fracture distribution

A quantitative assessment of how faults control the migration of geofluids is critical in many areas of geosciences. Here we integrated geological fieldwork, quantitative analysis of the fractures distribution and numerical modeling to build a geometrical representation of a fault zone and to characterize its hydraulic properties. Our target is a fault located in the Majella Mountain (Italy). We collected 21 scan lines across the fault profile in order to characterize its architecture. The numerical modeling of the fracture network of the damage zones and their hydraulic parameters was performed using both commercial (Move ® ) and open source software (dfnWorks and PFLOTRAN). Move ® was used to build a representative model of the fault zone using fracture spacing as a proxy, and to model the hydraulic parameters of the different fault domains. dfnWorks and PFLOTRAN were employed to infer the hydraulic parameters of the damage zones of the fault and then upscale these properties to an equivalent continuum domain, suitable for fluid flow simulations through the whole fault zone. Our findings show how even in a relatively small area it is possible to describe changes in terms of hydraulic properties of a fault zone and to build models capable to represent these variations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Kokkos R&D: Remote Memory Spaces WBS STPR 04 Milestone 7

This report documents the completion of milestone STPRO4-7 Kokkos R&D: Remote Memory Spaces for One-Sided Halo-Exchange. The goal of this milestone was to develop and deploy an initial capability to support PGAS like communication models integrated into Kokkos via Remote Memory Spaces. The team developed semantic requirements for Remote Memory Spaces and implemented a prototype library leveraging four different communication libraries: libQUO, SHMEM, MPI-OneSided and NVSHMEM. In conjunction with ADCD02-COPA the Remote Memory Space capability was used in ExaMiniMD — a Molecular Dynamics Proxy Application — to explore the current state of the technology and its usability. The obtained results demonstrate that usability is very good, allowing a significant simplification communication routines, but performance is still lacking.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Particle In Cell Scalable Application Resource (PICSAR) v2

PICSAR, for Particle-In-Cell Scalable Application Resource, is a high-performance Particle-in-Cell library developed in Fortran 90 and Python. This library was first developed to be coupled with WARP and provide efficient subroutines optimized for Many-Integrated Core (MIC) architectures such as the forthcoming system Cori Phase II that will be equipped with Intel Xeon Phi KNL processors. It is a compact self-contained proxy that adequately portrays the computational loads and dataflow of the more complex WARP code but can also be used by other PIC codes. PICSAR also contains a Fortran stand-alone Particle-In-Cell "mini-app" that includes the key functionalities of a PIC code. This stand-alone code is used for testing implementation performances and to do some benchmarks.

VINCENTI, HENRI↗

HIGH-CADENCE, HIGH-CONTRAST IMAGING FOR EXOPLANET MAPPING: OBSERVATIONS OF THE HR 8799 PLANETS WITH VLT/SPHERE SATELLITE-SPOT-CORRECTED RELATIVE PHOTOMETRY

Time-resolved photometry is an important new probe of the physics of condensate clouds in extrasolar planets and brown dwarfs. Extreme adaptive optics systems can directly image planets, but precise brightness measurements are challenging. We present VLT/SPHERE high-contrast, time-resolved broad H-band near-infrared photometry for four exoplanets in the HR 8799 system, sampling changes from night to night over five nights with relatively short integrations. The photospheres of these four planets are often modeled by patchy clouds and may show large-amplitude rotational brightness modulations. Our observations provide high-quality images of the system. We present a detailed performance analysis of different data analysis approaches to accurately measure the relative brightnesses of the four exoplanets. We explore the information in satellite spots and demonstrate their use as a proxy for image quality. While the brightness variations of the satellite spots are strongly correlated, we also identify a second-order anti-correlation pattern between the different spots. Our study finds that KLIP reduction based on principal components analysis with satellite-spot-modulated artificial-planet-injection-based photometry leads to a significant (∼3×) gain in photometric accuracy over standard aperture-based photometry and reaches 0.1 mag per point accuracy for our data set, the signal-to-noise ratio of which is limited by small field rotation. Relative planet-to-planet photometry can be compared between nights, enabling observations spanning multiple nights to probe variability. Recent high-quality relative H-band photometry of the b–c planet pair agrees to about 1%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

RESIN: Responsible Innovation for Highly Recyclable Plastics - TASK 4: Risk Assessment Framework

This report covers the entirety of Task 4, but its main purpose is to deliver milestones ML4.4 and ML4.5, the last two SOPO milestones under Task 4. ML4.4 reports on the compatibility of polymer properties that affect both environmental performance and functional performance and the tradeoffs involved in turning these properties to the benefit of each. ML4.5 presents a complete set of information on the critical properties of benign target products, where benign products are defined as those with the shortest environmental lifetime which meet performance requirements. To support and provide context to the discussions of ML4.4 and ML4.5 and to provide a complete picture of Task 4, milestones 4.1-4.3 are briefly summarized at the beginning of the report. The discussion of ML4.4 introduces the notion of polymer persistence as a proxy for environmental risk. It then discusses the development and comparison of two machine leaning models explored for estimating polymer degradation rates, a random forest (RF) classifier and an RF regressor. Given the advantage of continuous outputs rather than simple classes, the RF regressor was incorporated in the Excel risk calculator, which to this point could implement the objectives of subtasks 4.1-4.3, estimating polymer release and redistribution. The ML4.4 discussion then addresses the effect of each of the three polymer features used by the RF regressor on polymer functional performance. These features are number molecular weight (Mn), glass transition temperature (T g ) and heat of fusion (H fus ). The discussion of ML4.5 reviews the conceptual framework of the risk model, which served as the foundation for developing the Excel risk calculator and describes the use of, and assumptions within, the calculator. Appendix A is further provided as a user’s guide for the calculator. To demonstrate how the calculator is intended to be used by developers in the design of low-risk polymers, an analysis of 27 hypothetical polymers defined by varying values for the three polymer features used by the RF regressor is presented. The range of parameter values selected produces estimates of polymer degradation rates and lifetimes that may be typical of various consumer products made from polyurethane polymers and shows how changes in polymer features affect lifetimes. The demonstration also predicts the final distribution of released polymer materials in environmental compartments as a function of consumer product mix and assumed leakage rates of end-of-life processes. Lastly, this report summarizes the achievement of Task 4 goals from original conception to final delivery and discusses how and to what degree to which each subtask goal was achieved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Adaptation to elevated CO 2 in different biodiversity contexts

In the absence of migration, species persistence depends on adaption to a changing environment, but whether and how adaptation to global change is altered by community diversity is not understood. Community diversity may prevent, enhance or alter how species adapt to changing conditions by influencing population sizes, genetic diversity and/or the fitness landscape experienced by focal species. For this study, we tested the impact of community diversity on adaptation by performing a reciprocal transplant experiment on grasses that evolved for 14 years under ambient and elevated CO 2 , in communities of low or high species richness. Using biomass as a fitness proxy, we find evidence for local adaptation to elevated CO 2 , but only for plants assayed in a community of similar diversity to the one experienced during the period of selection. Our results indicate that the biological community shapes the very nature of the fitness landscape within which species evolve in response to elevated CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MODELING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE LSST IN SURVEYING THE NEAR-EARTH OBJECT POPULATION

We have performed a detailed survey simulation of the LSST performance with regards to near-Earth objects (NEOs) using the project’s current baseline cadence. The survey shows that if the project is able to reliably generate linked sets of positions and times (a so-called “tracklet”) using two detections of a given object per night and can link these tracklets into a track with a minimum of three tracklets covering more than a ∼12 day length-of-arc, then they would be able to discover 62% of the potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) larger than 140 m in its projected 10 year survey lifetime. This completeness would be reduced to 58% if the project is unable to implement a pipeline using the two detection cadence and has to adopt the four detection cadence more commonly used by existing NEO surveys. When including the estimated performance from the current operating surveys, assuming these would continue running until the start of LSST and perhaps beyond, the completeness fraction for PHAs larger than 140 m would be 73% for the baseline cadence and 71% for the four detection cadence. This result is a lower completeness than the estimate of Ivezić et al.; however, the result is quite close to that of Jones et al., who show ∼70% completeness using the identical survey cadence as used here. We show that the traditional method of using absolute magnitude H<22 mag as a proxy for the population with diameters larger than 140 m results in completeness values that are too high by ∼5%. Our simulation makes use of the most recent models of the physical and orbital properties of the NEO and PHA populations, as well as simulated cadences and telescope performance estimates provided by the LSST project. The consistency of the results presented here when compared to those of Jones et al. demonstrates the robustness of these survey modeling approaches. We also show that while neither LSST nor a space-based IR platform like NEOCam individually can complete the survey for 140 m diameter NEOs, the combination of these systems can achieve that goal after a decade of observation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗