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At least 199 records · Page 11

Modeling strategies and data needs for representing coastal wetland vegetation in land surface models

Vegetated coastal ecosystems sequester carbon rapidly relative to terrestrial ecosystems. Coastal wetlands are poorly represented in land surface models, but work is underway to improve process-based, predictive modeling of these ecosystems. Here, in this work, we identify guiding questions, potential simulations, and data needs to make progress in improving representation of vegetation in terrestrial–aquatic interfaces, with a focus on coastal and estuarine ecosystems. We synthesize relevant plant traits and environmental controls on vegetation that influence carbon cycling in coastal ecosystems. We propose that models include separate plant functional types (PFTs) for mangroves, graminoid salt marshes, and succulent salt marshes to adequately represent the variation in aboveground and belowground productivity between common coastal wetland vegetation types. We also discuss the drivers and carbon storage consequences of shifts in dominant PFTs. We suggest several potential approaches to represent the diversity in vegetation tolerance and adaptations to fluctuations in salinity and water level, which drive key gradients in coastal wetland ecosystems. Finally, we discuss data needs for parameterizing and evaluating model implementations of coastal wetland vegetation types and function.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unveiling the transferability of PLSR models for leaf trait estimation: lessons from a comprehensive analysis with a novel global dataset

Leaf traits are essential for understanding many physiological and ecological processes. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with leaf spectroscopy are widely applied for trait estimation, but their transferability across space, time, and plant functional types (PFTs) remains unclear. We compiled a novel dataset of paired leaf traits and spectra, with 47 393 records for >700 species and eight PFTs at 101 globally distributed locations across multiple seasons. Using this dataset, we conducted an unprecedented comprehensive analysis to assess the transferability of PLSR models in estimating leaf traits. While PLSR models demonstrate commendable performance in predicting chlorophyll content, carotenoid, leaf water, and leaf mass per area prediction within their training data space, their efficacy diminishes when extrapolating to new contexts. Specifically, extrapolating to locations, seasons, and PFTs beyond the training data leads to reduced R 2 (0.12–0.49, 0.15–0.42, and 0.25–0.56) and increased NRMSE (3.58–18.24%, 6.27–11.55%, and 7.0–33.12%) compared with nonspatial random cross-validation. The results underscore the importance of incorporating greater spectral diversity in model training to boost its transferability. These findings highlight potential errors in estimating leaf traits across large spatial domains, diverse PFTs, and time due to biased validation schemes, and provide guidance for future field sampling strategies and remote sensing applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Regulation of Transpiration and Whole‐Tree Crown Conductance in Tropical Forests

We found a consistent, emergent relationship between tropical tree crown conductance and its sensitivity to vapour pressure deficit across diverse species and sites. This reveals convergent stomatal–hydraulic regulation alongside distinct drought sensitivities among plant functional types.

Rahman, Mizanur [Pacific Northwest National Labora↗

Sensing Plant Photosynthesis Using Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence: From Chloroplasts to the Globe

Photosynthesis is the fundamental biological process that introduced oxygen into Earth's atmosphere and continues to power life, from the earliest single-celled organisms to entire global ecosystems. Yet, measuring photosynthesis across scales has been challenging because traditional techniques have not transcended scales. The emergence of remote-sensing techniques to measure solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a unique approach to estimate photosynthesis across spatiotemporal scales, representing a new age for optical remote sensing to study photosynthesis and shaping the decades of satellite SIF research. Here, focusing on spatiotemporal scales, we review the mechanisms that drive the relationship between SIF and photosynthesis. Remotely sensed SIF is modulated by biological drivers, environmental drivers, the interaction between biological and environmental drivers, and the viewing geometry. Studying fluorescence at small scales provides the ecophysiological understanding needed to disentangle the biological and environmental drivers of SIF at larger scales. Leveraging progress in satellite SIF, future research should focus on cross-scale mechanistic understanding of the drivers of SIF and using SIF as a metric for plant function beyond photosynthesis.

ecophysiology↗

Gridded Vegetation and Land Unit Datasets over North America (1km x 1km) for E3SM Land Model, Version 2

Gridded 1 km land-surface-property dataset for Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM) simulations over North America. Thirty-metre NALCMS land cover is aggregated to the Daymet grid; vegetation classes are cross-walked to ELM plant functional types using mean-temperature-of-the-coldest-month (MTCO) rules. NetCDF includes PFT and land-unit fractions, counts, and MTCO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leaf mass area, leaf carbon and nitrogen content of 18 plant species, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2023

Leaf mass per area (LMA), and leaf carbon and nitrogen content of Arctic vegetation species from three sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The plants were sampled in July 2023 from the Kougarok Mile 64, Teller Mile 27 and Council sites as part of an ongoing project to improve the understanding of stomatal conductance and photosynthetic parameterization of Arctic plant functional types (PFTs). Species sampled included deciduous tall and dwarf shrubs, forbs, and graminoids, for a total of 18 species. All sampled leaves were used for gas exchange measurements prior to analysis of LMA and leaf carbon and nitrogen content. The data and metadata files included in this data package are in .csv format. See related dataset NGA509 for leaf-level gas exchange measurements and shrub traits (size, thaw depth, soil moisture).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulated tree recruitment at PA-BCI under four precipitation scenarios

Simulated recruitment rates are provided for four tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) which vary in drought and shade tolerance, at Barro Colorado Island, Panama (PA-BCI). Recruitment rates are predicted using the Tree Recruitment Scheme (TRS; Hanbury-Brown et al., 2022) and model data output from the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 with hydrodynamics (ED2; Medvigy et al., 2009, Powell et al., 2018). Predictions of recruitment are provided under four precipitation scenarios: “BASE” = recycled 2008-2014 observed meteorology (Faybishenko & Paton, 2021), “SYN-ENSO” = two exceptionally strong El Niño events within 30 years (Powell et al., 2018), “WET” = 30% increase in precipitation compared to BASE, and DRY-DS = dry season (January–April) precipitation reduced by 75% compared to BASE. In addition to recruitment rates, this dataset provides TRS predictions of PFT-specific seed bank and seedling pool dynamics (tracked in units of carbon) and ED predictions of understory photosynthetically active radiation and soil matric potential at 6 cm soil depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Semi-automated Design of Artificial Intelligence Earth Systems Models

Prediction and observation of water cycles at various scales involve not only patterns isolated in space and time, but also modeling of complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple domains. For instance, evapotranspiration (ET) and leaf area indexes (LAI) are two parameters that are needed to accurately model and understand land-atmosphere processes. Accurate assessments of ET and LAI are critical for understanding hydrological processes, deforestation, crop yield, and irrigation impacts. However, ET estimates for global simulations are available at very coarse spatial resolution. They are usually derived from satellite data based on broad plant functional types (PFTs), which fail to capture fine-scale variations because of changes in vegetation type across the globe. Similarly LAI estimates have typically been derived from vegetation indices at global scales or estimated locally using physical models, both of which suffer from a range of uncertainties that impact model sensitivity. The new era of AI model development for Earth systems (ES) calls for data-driven methods that provide domain scientists with uncertainty-aware estimations of biophysical parameters such as ET and LAI in a generalizable, interpretable, and discoverable manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Influence of Plants on Hydrologic Cycling: Quantifying and Validating the Role of Plant Processes and Stomatal Conductance (Final Report)

Plants can exert strong controls on water cycling, both locally and across the globe. The impacts are driven by how plants control the exchange of water and energy between the land and the atmosphere, which in turn are influenced by how plants photosynthesize and grow (e.g. biogeochemical cycling). Our team has shown previously that plant responses to increasing CO 2 in the atmosphere can influence the water cycle through changes in rainfall and the amount of water on land with implications for drought. Plant responses can also alter both average and extreme flow of water in rivers, with implications for freshwater availability and flood frequency. Although the impact of plant responses on water cycling has been demonstrated to exist, significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of the magnitude and form of the plant responses themselves, as well as their ultimate impact on water availability for people and ecosystems. In this project we worked to quantify the role of plant processes in regulating water cycling (e.g., precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, droughts, etc.). We addressed the following objectives: quantify the control of physiological vs. radiative effects on water cycling across many coupled models in idealized and realistic scenarios, as well as to quantify how our assumptions about leaf-level processes (e.g. coupling between stomatal conductance and photosynthesis), and organism-level processes (e.g. leaf area response to high CO 2 ) contributed to uncertainties and biases in water cycling. We focused on the impact of these processes on water cycling to assess the sensitivities of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff to model assumptions about plant processes at the leaf, organism, and community level. As part of this project we used measurements of stable carbon isotopes to generate observationally based estimates of plant functioning during the historical period. This work is directly relevant to DOE’s primary scientific research questions in the RGMA topic area (b) on Biogeochemical processes, feedbacks, and interactions in the Earth system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Defensive Cybersecurity Architecture Design Using Force-on-Force Cyber-Physical Modeling

Currently, nuclear power plant physical security systems are highly dependent on air-gaps as a protective measure against cyber-threats. Cyber-physical threats become more likely as advanced cyber-threat capabilities to jump air-gaps transition into common use. Defending against the emerging threat of cyber-enabled physical intrusions is poorly understood. The consequence of these cyber-physical attacks has no quantitative analysis method to inform risk-informed, performance-based cybersecurity approaches. By modifying the physical security simulation tool Dante, cyber-physical threat consequence was able to be analyzed on a notional facility. The results of this analysis are used to design a Defensive Cybersecurity Architecture (DCSA) for the physical security system to produce example resilience measures for this notional facility. A DCSA defines security levels to provide a graded approach for defending plant functions, and security zones for trusted communication between systems. This approach can be applied to real world systems to produce physical protection systems and response measures that are resilient to cyber-physical threats.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NIST: Soil Respiration, Moisture, Temperature, Chemistry; and Fine Root Measurements from a Transect Through a Forest Edge, Gaithersburg, Maryland, 2017-2021

This dataset contains soil respiration, moisture, temperature, and chemistry, as well as fine root measurements from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Forested Optical Reference for Evaluating Sensor Technology (FOREST) research facility at Gaithersburg, Maryland. Measurements were taken at an existing transect array that begins in a grassy meadow, crosses a sharp forest edge, then a small stream, and finally extends upwards in the interior of the forest at the top of a ridge. There are 6 different landscape positions replicated across three transects in the array. Soil respiration was measured during growing seasons in 2017-2019 (2017-06-02 to 2020-02-27). Pedons (1 m3) were isolated from surrounding tree roots using trenching and a fabric to inhibit root ingrowth. Flux measurements inside the pedons were thus assumed to represent heterotrophic only respiration in 2019, and these fluxes were paired with nearby fluxes assumed to represent total respiration. Deep vertical probes measured volumetric moisture content and temperature at the same points in the array every 10 cm in depth to either 90 cm or 120 cm total depth, at 15 minute intervals, from 2019-2021 (2019-07-09 to 2021-09-10). Soil core samples were collected from each of the array points for three different months in early- to mid-2019 (2019-03-19 to 2019-07-10), at three depths each. Soils were analyzed for gravimetric moisture content; pH; total carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus; texture; microbial biomass carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus; extractable dissolved organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus; extractable nitrate and ammonia; and extracellular hydrolytic enzyme activities. The fine roots were separated from the cores and segregated by plant functional type (grass or tree species) and if they were dead or alive. Fine roots were then measured for length, surface area, diameter, and dry mass. This dataset contains four data files in comma separated (*.csv) format. These data serve to deepen our understanding of root and soil processes at forest edges and in transitional zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GCAM-Demeter LU dataset

The dataset includes the projected global gridded land cover (excluding the Antarctic) for the period of 2015-2100 at 0.05-degree resolution and 5-year time step under fifteen SSP-RCP scenarios driven by five GCMs (i.e., gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a geospatial downscaling model (Demeter). The data has been stored in self-describing NetCDF format. The dataset also includes the mean and standard deviation of the results driven by the five GCMs. More specifically, the data in each year includes grid-explicit fraction (in percent) of each of the 32 plant functional types that are widely used in current Earth system models. The NetCDF files are named as “GCAM_Demeter_LU_SSP_RCP_Model_Year.nc”, where “SSP” and “RCP” denote the SSP and RCP scenarios, including 'ssp1_rcp26', 'ssp1_rcp45', 'ssp1_rcp60', 'ssp2_rcp26', 'ssp2_rcp45', 'ssp2_rcp60', 'ssp3_rcp45', 'ssp3_rcp60', 'ssp4_rcp26', 'ssp4_rcp45', 'ssp4_rcp60', 'ssp5_rcp26', 'ssp5_rcp45', 'ssp5_rcp60', and 'ssp5_rcp85'. “Year” denotes the year of the land use data, and “GCM” denotes the source driving forcing data from five global climate models (gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), or the mean (“modelmean”) and the standard deviation (“modelstd”) of the results from the five GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GCAM-Demeter-LU

This GCAM-Demeter-LU is made available under the Open Data Commons Attribution License:http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/by/1.0/. The dataset includes the projected global gridded land cover (excluding the Antarctic) for the period of 2015-2100 at 0.05-degree resolution and 5-year time step under fifteen SSP-RCP scenarios driven by five GCMs (i.e., gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a geospatial downscaling model (Demeter). The data has been stored in self-describing NetCDF format. The dataset also includes the mean and standard deviation of the results driven by the five GCMs. More specifically, the data in each year includes grid-explicit fraction (in percent) of each of the 32 plant functional types that are widely used in current Earth system models. The NetCDF files are named as “GCAM_Demeter_LU_SSP_RCP_Model_Year.nc”, where “SSP” and “RCP” denote the SSP and RCP scenarios, including 'ssp1_rcp26', 'ssp1_rcp45', 'ssp1_rcp60', 'ssp2_rcp26', 'ssp2_rcp45', 'ssp2_rcp60', 'ssp3_rcp45', 'ssp3_rcp60', 'ssp4_rcp26', 'ssp4_rcp45', 'ssp4_rcp60', 'ssp5_rcp26', 'ssp5_rcp45', 'ssp5_rcp60', and 'ssp5_rcp85'. “Year” denotes the year of the land use data, and “GCM” denotes the source driving forcing data from five global climate models (gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), or the mean (“modelmean”) and the standard deviation (“modelstd”) of the results from the five GCMs.See https://github.com/JGCRI/chen_et_al_2020a for details on how to reproduce this data. Rights and permissions Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ applies to the metadata files associated with this article

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Beneath the Bark: Assessing Woody Stem Water and Carbon Fluxes and Its Prevalence Across Climates and the Woody Plant Phylogeny

While woody stems are known to influence carbon and water dynamics, direct exchange with the atmosphere is seldom quantified, limiting our understanding of how these processes influence the exchange of mass and energy. The presence of woody stem chlorophyll in a diversity of climates and across a range of species suggests an evolutionary advantage to sustaining carbon assimilation and water relations through permeable stem tissue. However, no formal evaluation of this hypothesis has been performed. In this mini-review, we explore the interactions between woody stems and the atmosphere by examining woody stem photosynthesis and bark-atmosphere water exchange. Specifically, we address the following questions: (1) How do water and carbon move between the atmosphere and woody stems? (2) In what climate space is woody stem photosynthesis and bark water uptake advantageous? (3) How ubiquitous across plant families is woody stem photosynthesis and bark-atmosphere water exchange? In the literature, only seven species have been identified as exhibiting bark water uptake while over 300 species are thought to conduct woody stem photosynthesis. The carbon dioxide and water gained from these processes can offset respiration costs and improve plant water balance. These species span diverse biomes suggesting a broad prevalence of bark-atmosphere permeability. Finally, our results demonstrate that there may be an evolutionary component as demonstrated by a high Pagel’s lambda for the presence of stem photosynthesis. We end with recommendations for future research that explores how bark water and carbon interactions may impact plant function and mass flow in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Canopy position influences the degree of light suppression of leaf respiration in abundant tree genera in the Amazon Forest

Leaf respiration in the dark (R dark ) and light (R day ) is poorly characterized in diverse tropical ecosystems, and little to no information exists on the degree of light suppression in common tree species within the Amazon basin, and their dependences upon plant functional traits and position within the canopy. We quantified R dark and apparent R day using the Kok method and measured key leaf traits in 26 tree individuals of different species distributed in three different canopy positions: canopy, lower canopy, and understory. To explore the relationships between the leaf traits we used the standardized major axis (SMA). We found that canopy trees had significantly higher rates of R dark and R day than trees in the understory. The difference between R dark and R day (the light suppression of respiration) was greatest in the understory (68 ± 9%, 95% CI) and lower canopy (49 ± 9%, 95% CI) when compared to the canopy (37 ± 10%, 95% CI). We also found that R day was significantly and strongly correlated with R dark (p < 0.001) for all the canopy positions. Also, leaf mass per area (LMA) and leaf Phosphorus concentration (P) had a significant relationship with R dark (p < 0.001; p = 0.003), respectively. In addition, a significant relationship was found for LMA in the canopy and lower canopy positions (p = 0.009; p = 0.048) while P was only significant in the canopy (p = 0.044). Finally, no significant relationship was found between R dark and nitrogen, sugars, and starch. Our results highlight the importance of including representation of the light suppression of leaf respiration in terrestrial biosphere models and also of accounting for vertical gradients within forest canopies and connections with functional traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-shade dryland agrivoltaic conditions enhanced carbon uptake and water-use efficiency in zucchini ( Cucurbita pepo )

Introduction: The increasing global demand for food and energy is intensifying land-use competition. Agrivoltaic systems are a multifunctional land-use approach that vertically integrates the production of agricultural crops and solar power on the same land area. Most food crops are adapted to full-sun conditions, and the physiological responses of these crops to the novel microclimate under solar panels remain poorly understood. We hypothesized that the microclimate beneath the high-density photovoltaic system would influence carbon uptake, water use, and yield outcomes of zucchini summer squash.Methods: We conducted a field experiment in a hot, semi-arid climate on zucchini (Cucurbita pepo). Plants were grown under an agrivoltaic system with a 75% ground cover ratio (GCR) and in a full-sun control plot, each with two irrigation regimes (100 and 50%). We measured leaf-level photosynthesis, microclimate variables, and fruit yield at plant maturity and throughout the growing season.Results: The agrivoltaic array reduced photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by ~79%, resulting in a cooler (−1.1 °C), more humid environment with higher soil moisture. These microclimatic conditions enhanced midday photosynthesis and daily cumulative carbon uptake. However, fruit yield was consistently lower under the panels, indicating a shift in carbon allocation toward vegetative growth. Photosynthesis was primarily driven by PAR across treatments, while soil moisture significantly influenced photosynthesis only in the control plots, suggesting water limitation was alleviated under the panels.Discussion: These findings highlight a trade-off between improved physiological performance and reduced yield under high-density agrivoltaics. While the system buffered heat and drought stress and improved overall plant function, excessive shade reduced reproductive output. Optimizing panel density or selecting crops cultivated for non-fruit yields will be essential for balancing food production and energy generation in dryland agrivoltaic settings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗