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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

ES4SE Technical Assistance Program Evaluation

Technical assistance (TA) programs can provide organizations and communities with the information, tools, and resources needed to support their development and resilience goals. The Energy Storage for Social Equity (ES4SE) TA program sought to empower undeserved communities through co-development of energy storage pathways and solutions to address community-defined challenges and needs. Evaluating the design, implementation, and outcomes of TA programs like ES4SE is critical to understanding whether program and participant goals were accomplished and how to adjust the TA approach to better meet participant needs. This evaluation explores the experiences and perceptions of community participants in the ES4SE TA program.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio-economic sectors

Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio-economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this purpose within the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used to dynamically downscaled four global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under the optimistic and pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. These models were employed in this study for characterizing the response of Cameroon's extreme precipitation and temperature events to global warming, using seven indices defined by the Expert Team on Cli mate Change Detection and Indices. Under global warming, the maximum number of consecutive dry (wet) days' is expected to increase (decrease). However, the annual total rainfall amount is expected to increase, mainly due to the intensification of very wet days and daily rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the temperature-based indices reveal an increase (decrease) in the total annual hot (cold) days, and overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high-mitigated low-emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, and even sometimes adapts to reverse the sign of changes. Designing reliable policies to limit the risks associated with the above changes is required, as their socio-economic consequences are likely to include food insecurity, heat-related illness, population impoverishment, price rises and market instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Power Converter Circuit Design Automation using Parallel Monte Carlo Tree Search

The tidal waves of modern electronic/electrical devices have led to increasing demands for ubiquitous application-specific power converters. A conventional manual design procedure of such power converters is computation- and labor-intensive, which involves selecting and connecting component devices, tuning component-wise parameters and control schemes, and iteratively evaluating and optimizing the design. To automate and speed up this design process, we propose an automatic framework that designs custom power converters from design specifications using Monte Carlo Tree Search. Specifically, the framework embraces the upper-confidence-bound-tree (UCT), a variant of Monte Carlo Tree Search, to automate topology space exploration with circuit design specification-encoded reward signals. Moreover, our UCT-based approach can exploit small offline data via the specially designed default policy and can run in parallel to accelerate topology space exploration. Further, it utilizes a hybrid circuit evaluation strategy to substantially reduce design evaluation costs. Empirically, we demonstrated that our framework could generate energy-efficient circuit topologies for various target voltage conversion ratios. Compared to existing automatic topology optimization strategies, the proposed method is much more computationally efficient --- the sequential version can generate topologies with the same quality while being up to 67% faster. Here, the parallelization schemes can further achieve high speedups compared to the sequential version.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Are Land‐Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?

Abstract Southeast Asia is a region known for active land‐use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO 2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process‐based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book‐keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil‐palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Technical-Economic Assessment of Brackish Water Treatment for Fossil Power Plant Cooling with Reduced Environmental Impact

The power sector accounts for approximately 40% of freshwater use in the U.S. Reusing non-traditional water resources is critical for alleviating water stress in the western United States. The purpose of this study is to conduct a techno-economic system analysis to evaluate the potential of brackish water treatment for wet cooling towers at existing thermo-electric generating units (EGUs). It aims to address current knowledge gaps in support of non-traditional water resources planning and the electric power industry's water decision- and policy making. An engineering-economic model was developed and combined with DuPont's water application value engine (WAVE) v1.82 to evaluate the viability of retrofitting reverse osmosis-based brackish water treatment systems to individual existing EGUs and then aggregating the unit-level results to the fleet level. In the base case, brackish water treatment can reduce freshwater consumption of electric generation units by 94–100% while increasing the cost of electric generation by approximately 10% and have marginal impacts on the units' parasitic loads. When zero liquid discharge systems are applied to brackish water brine treatment, the cost of electric generation and freshwater consumption savings and energy penalty to the power plant significantly increase. These costs are even higher than dry cooling deployment in lieu of wet cooling towers. The choice of freshwater savings between brackish water desalination and dry cooling deployment depends greatly on how the concentrated brines are managed. Multiple factors must be considered when supporting decision-making in water management and planning in power sectors, which include non-traditional water quantity and quality as well as trade-offs among technical performance, economics, and environmental impacts.

Wu, Zitao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Getting allometry right at the Oak Ridge free‐air CO 2 enrichment experiment: Old problems and new opportunities for global change experiments

Societal Impact Statement Free‐air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiments provide essential data on forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO 2 for evaluations of climate change impacts on humanity. Understanding and reducing the uncertainty in the experimental results is critical to ensure scientific and public confidence in the models and policy initiatives that derive therefrom. One source of uncertainty is the estimation of tree biomass using mathematical relationships between biomass and easily obtained and non‐destructive measurements (allometry). We evaluated the robustness of the allometric relationships established at the beginning of a FACE experiment and discuss the challenges and opportunities for the new generation of FACE experiments. Summary Long‐term field experiments to elucidate forest responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration require allometric equations to estimate tree biomass from non‐destructive measurements of tree size. We analyzed whether the allometric equations established at the beginning of a free‐air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiment in a Liquidambar styraciflua plantation were still valid at the end of the 12 year experiment. Aboveground woody biomass was initially predicted by an equation that included bole diameter, taper, and height, assuming that including taper and height as predictors would accommodate changes in tree structure that might occur over time and in response to elevated CO 2 . At the conclusion of the FACE experiment, we harvested 23 trees, measured dimensions and dry mass of boles and branches, and extracted and measured the woody root mass of 10 trees. Although 10 of the harvested trees were larger than the trees used to establish the allometric relationship, measured aboveground woody biomass was well predicted by the original allometry. The initial linear equation between bole basal area and woody root biomass underestimated final root biomass by 28%, but root biomass was just 21% of total wood mass, and errors in aboveground and belowground estimates were offsetting. The allometry established at the beginning of the experiment provided valid predictions of tree biomass throughout the experiment. New allometric approaches using terrestrial laser scanning should reduce an important source of uncertainty in decade‐long forest experiments and in assessments of centuries‐long forest biomass accretion used in evaluating carbon offsets and climate mitigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The quest for improved air quality may push China to continue its CO 2 reduction beyond the Paris Commitment

China is challenged with the simultaneous goals of improving air quality and mitigating climate change. The “Beautiful China” strategy, launched by the Chinese government in 2020, requires that all cities in China attain 35 μg/m 3 or below for annual mean concentration of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) by 2035. Meanwhile, China adopts a portfolio of low-carbon policies to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledged in the Paris Agreement. Previous studies demonstrated the co-benefits to air pollution reduction from implementing low-carbon energy policies. Pathways for China to achieve dual targets of both air quality and CO 2 mitigation, however, have not been comprehensively explored. Here, we couple an integrated assessment model and an air quality model to evaluate air quality in China through 2035 under the NDC scenario and an alternative scenario (Co-Benefit Energy [CBE]) with enhanced low-carbon policies. Results indicate that some Chinese cities cannot meet the PM 2.5 target under the NDC scenario by 2035, even with the strictest end-of-pipe controls. Achieving the air quality target would require further reduction in emissions of multiple air pollutants by 6 to 32%, driving additional 22% reduction in CO 2 emissions relative to the NDC scenario. Results show that the incremental health benefit from improved air quality of CBE exceeds 8 times the additional costs of CO 2 mitigation, attributed particularly to the cost-effective reduction in household PM 2.5 exposure. The additional low-carbon energy polices required for China’s air quality targets would lay an important foundation for its deep decarbonization aligned with the 2 °C global temperature target.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The importance of recruitment and retention in Heliophysics: it’s not just a pipeline problem

A major obstacle in cultivating a robust Heliophysics (and broader scientific) community is the lack of diversity throughout science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. For many years, this has been understood as a “leaky pipeline” analogy, in which predominately minority students initially interested in STEM gradually fall (or are pushed) out of the field on their way to a scientific research position. However, this ignores critical structural and policy issues which drive even later career Ph.D.s out of a career in Heliophysics. We identify here several systemic problems that inhibit many from participating fully in the Heliophysics community, including soft money pressure, lack of accessibility and equity, power imbalances, lack of accountability, friction in collaboration, and difficulties in forming mentorship bonds. We present several recommendations to empower research-supporting organizations to help create a culture of inclusion, openness, and innovative science.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Assessment of Evaluation Practices of Low- And Moderate-Income Solar Programs

As concerns about social equity and clean energy rise, state and local governments, utilities, and non-profit organizations are offering at least 41 active programs in 21 states to promote solar adoption as a way to reduce energy bills for low- and moderate-income (LMI) households while meeting other policy goals such as job creation and clean energy generation. A new study from Berkeley Lab looks at how those programs are being evaluated. The report provides background on how they seek to address LMI household energy burdens and gives a brief discussion of the art and science of program evaluation, drawn from decades of experience in energy efficiency programs. It then turns to how LMI solar programs are currently being evaluated, highlighting trends among evaluation methods, metrics tracked, and best practices employed. A few programs are explored in more depth to illustrate notable practices that could be applied to other program evaluations. These LMI solar programs are mostly young, operate on tight budgets, and vary considerably in their design and stated goals. Consequently, well-designed program evaluation is critical to better understand what works, what could be improved, and how to maximize program impacts under budget constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pathways for Tamil Nadu’s Electric Power Sector: 2020 - 2030

This report is part one of a two-part series that represents a year-long collaboration with the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Limited (TANGEDCO) and Tamil Nadu Transmission Corporation Limited (TANTRANSCO) on power sector planning. This Pathways for Tamil Nadu’s Electric Power Sector 2020-2030 report outlines NREL’s work with TANGEDCO's electricity sector planning department to develop a model of the State power system and evaluate multiple scenarios of system evolution given resource constraints, costs of technologies, and power sector policies. A broad stakeholder group comprised of TANGEDCO leadership, developers, regulators, and researchers from within the power sector community in Tamil Nadu helped to guide the main objectives of the study and provided technical feedback to the research team. The outcomes of this effort include multiple pathways for power sector growth to 2030 and a robust model of Tamil Nadu's power system that can be used to continually analyze the impact of new policies, regulations, or system changes. The second report in this series will build on the bulk system analysis by focusing on the rapidly transforming distribution network in the State. The report will outline a framework developed by NREL and TANGEDCO's distribution utility to quickly and accurately analyze the impacts of integrating renewable energy onto Tamil Nadu's distribution system. Together these studies help to prepare Tamil Nadu for a rapidly transforming power system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Analysis Framework for Distribution Network DER Integration Analysis in India: Distributed Solar in Tamil Nadu

This report is part of a two-part series that represents a year-long collaboration with the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Limited (TANGEDCO) on power sector planning. The first report in this series, the Pathways for Tamil Nadu’s Electric Power Sector 2017-2030 report outlines NREL’s work with TANGEDCO's electricity sector planning department to develop a model of the State’s power system and evaluate multiple scenarios of system growth given resource constraints, costs of technologies, and power sector policies. This second report in this series focuses on the rapidly transforming distribution network in the State. The report outlines a framework developed by NREL with TANGEDCO's distribution utility to quickly and accurately analyze the impacts of integrating renewable energy, specifically rooftop solar PV onto Tamil Nadu's distribution system. Together these studies help to prepare Tamil Nadu for a rapidly transforming power system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sound at Scale: Characterizing Impacts of Noise Ordinances on the Onshore Wind Energy Technical Potential for the United States

Recent surveys have documented the rapid rise of sound ordinances across state and county jurisdictions, which has become crucial for wind energy siting. However, the lack of information on ordinances and computational challenges in turbine sound modeling create uncertainties regarding how evolving policies may affect resource potential and clean energy objectives. Therefore, we develop an approach to evaluate wind turbine sound profiles at millions of locations across the U.S. and translate them into setback distances for every residential structure. Compared to a baseline reference scenario, we find a 7% reduction in the national wind energy capacity potential when accounting for counties with existing sound ordinances. Additionally, when expanding the surveyed sound ordinances nationwide, we observe a potential loss of 53% of the national wind capacity under the most stringent ordinances, with a disproportionate share of this lost capacity coming from high-quality and low-cost wind resource. This work reveals that neglecting sound ordinances results in a significant overestimation of wind resource potential and highlights the important trade-offs between increased wind energy deployment to meet target decarbonization goals and the social/environmental impacts of this deployment that must be considered.

aeroacoustics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate Influences on Capacity Expansion Planning with Application to the Western U.S

Electric power system planners utilize a variety of planning tools to inform decisions concerning generation and transmission additions to the electric grid, the need for operational changes, and to evaluate potential stressors on the system. Numerous factors contribute to the planning process including projected fuel and technology costs, policy and load profiles. There is also a growing recognition of the interdependency of the electric grid with other natural and engineered systems. Here we explore how future climate change and hydropower operability might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning and operations. To do so we assemble a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated. Together, these climate factors spatially constrain a capacity expansion model that projects generation and transmission additions to the grid. The projected new capacity-builds are then evaluated on their operations, reliability, and cost under average and extreme climate conditions using production cost modeling. This coupled framework is demonstrated on the electric grid in the Western U.S., supporting capacity expansion planning by WECC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regional entity responsible for reliability assurance of the Western Interconnection. This region was selected in part because the West is unique in that it has high potential for renewable penetrations and is experiencing large retirements/displacements of baseload resources, primarily coal, leading to possible operational challenges in terms of changing resource mix and the need for resource flexibility. Toward this challenge, planning scenarios encompass a range of alternative energy, climate and drought futures. In this context we explore answers to two strategic questions: 1) How does changing climate influence electricity expansion planning (generation and transmission) and future operations, including type and capacity of new builds, system reliability, cost and environmental impacts? 2) How does the representation of hydropower in the modeling framework influence the evaluation of bulk power system operations? Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on recommendations concerning the capacity, type and location of new generation and transmission additions, with up to 17 GW additional capacity needed by 2038 to meet peak loads (~6.6% increase over capacity-builds based on historical climate). The extent of additional infrastructure needs is strongly influenced by future water availability for hydropower and the potential deployment of demand response technologies. Systems designed for future climate conditions were found to maintain high system reliability under a range of electricity and water availability scenarios (including significant drought), with minimal system curtailments. Additional capacity needs due to higher load tend to increase cumulative 20-year investment and operating costs by $\$$5-$\$$17 billion and generation costs increase by 9 to 19%. Finally, changing the representation of hydropower flexibility has a relatively small influence on capacity expansion in the Western Interconnection through 2038, but hydropower flexibility impacts generation costs to a similar extent as climate.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Field Evaluation of the Caney Shale as an Emerging Unconventional Play, Southern Oklahoma

The Mississippian-age Caney Shale is an emerging unconventional oil and gas (UOG) resource play in the southern Midcontinent and is prospective in the Anadarko, Ardmore, Marietta and western Arkoma basins. This play is enigmatic in that time equivalent Fayetteville Shale in the eastern Arkoma basin and Barnett Shale in the Ft. Worth Basin are major unconventional plays, whereas Caney Shale production is sparse and unpredictable (Cardott, 2017). In the Anadarko, Ardmore and Marietta basins, the Caney Shale is in the oil window, but its resource potential has not been adequately assessed. The Caney reservoir is about 60-300 m thick, is rich in total organic carbon, contains a large oil resource base, and has a strong natural gas drive; however, development has been hampered by high clay content and reactivity of the formation with water. The main objective of this initial four-year research project was to address these issues by establishing a Caney Shale Field Laboratory in the Ardmore Basin of southern Oklahoma to (a) conduct a comprehensive field characterization (b) perform field experiments, and (c) validate cost-effective technologies that will lead to a comprehensive and efficient development strategy plan for Caney Shale.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decentralized Distributed Proximal Policy Optimization (DD-PPO) for High Performance Computing Scheduling on Multi-User Systems

Resource allocation in High Performance Computing (HPC) environments presents a complex and multifaceted challenge for job scheduling algorithms. Beyond the efficient allocation of system resources, schedulers must account for and optimize multiple performance metrics, including job wait time and system throughput. Traditional heuristic-based scheduling algorithms increasingly struggle and lack the efficiency needed to meet the demands and address the complexity and scale of modern HPC systems. Consequently, recent research efforts have focused on leveraging advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Deep Learning (DL), particularly Reinforcement Learning (RL), to develop more adaptable and intelligent scheduling strategies. Previous RL-based scheduling approaches have explored a range of algorithms, from Deep Q-Networks (DQN) to Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), and more recently, hybrid methods that integrate Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with RL techniques. However, a common limitation across these methods is their reliance on relatively small datasets, with few methods being evaluated using large-scale, multi-million-job trace datasets representative of real-world HPC workloads. Moreover, existing RL schedulers face scalability issues due to centralized policy updates, which hinder training efficiency and performance when applied to large datasets. This study introduces a novel RL-based scheduler utilizing Decentralized Distributed Proximal Policy Optimization (DD-PPO) algorithm, which supports large-scale distributed training across multiple workers without requiring parameter synchronization at every step. By eliminating reliance on centralized updates to a shared policy, the DD-PPO scheduler enhances scalability, training efficiency, and sample utilization. Experimental validation using a large real-world dataset containing over 11.5 million job traces collected from petascale HPC systems over six years assesses the influence of dataset scale on training effectiveness and compares DD-PPO performance to traditional and advanced scheduling approaches. The experimental results demonstrate improved scheduling performance in comparison to both heuristic-based schedulers and existing RL-based scheduling algorithms.

AI↗