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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Resilient State Recovery Using Prior Measurement Support Information

Resilient state recovery of cyber-physical systems has attracted much research attention due to the unique challenges posed by the tight coupling between communication, computation, and the underlying physics of such systems. By modeling attacks as additive adversary signals to a sparse subset of measurements, this resilient recovery problem can be formulated as an error correction problem. To achieve exact state recovery, most existing results require less than 50% of the measurement nodes to be compromised, which limits the resiliency of the estimators. In this paper, we show that observer resiliency can be further improved by incorporating data-driven prior information. Here, we provide an analytical bridge between the precision of prior information and the resiliency of the estimator. By quantifying the relationship between the estimation error of the weighted ℓ 1 observer and the precision of the support prior, this quantified relationship provides guidance for the estimator’s weight design to achieve optimal resiliency. Several numerical simulations and an application case study are presented to validate the theoretical claims.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigations on a fuzzy process: effect of diffusion on calibration and particle identification in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers

Ionization electron diffusion in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) has typically been considered at the detector design stage, but little attention has been given to its effects on calibration and particle identification. We use a GEANT4-based simulation to study how diffusion impacts these techniques, and give consideration to how this effect is simulated. We find that diffusion can cause a drift-dependent bias to both the median and Most Probable Value (MPV) of dQ/dx distributions. The bias is estimated to be ~2.5% (median) and ~5.0% (MPV) for typical maximum drift times in currently running LArTPCs before adding detector specific considerations such as electric field non-uniformities. This information indicates that these metrics should not be used for calibration without care, contrary to the conventional wisdom. The impact of diffusion on the ability of LArTPCs to separate muons and protons is small, and not expected to pose any problems in future detectors. Diffusion may however be a significant source of systematic uncertainty when separating particles of more similar masses (muons and pions, kaons and protons). Separation of such populations may be improved by implementation of a drift-time dependent particle identification.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Semi-Empirical Density Law for Ternary, Homogeneous PuCl 3 /HCl/H 2 O Solutions

Nuclear material operations pose unique hazards that are not encountered in other chemical, energy, or manufacturing industries. One of these hazards is the potential for a nuclear criticality accident when handling fissile isotopes such as 235 U and 239 Pu. These hazards are particularly high when fissile material is dissolved in solution as the neutron behaviors of the system can change rapidly with the physical and chemical changes accessible in solution. Current estimates of solution density used for criticality safety are outdated and hinder fissile material handling. Developing new estimates for these safety calculations requires experimental characterization and the derivation of empirical density models. We have derived a density law describing PuCl 3 /HCl/H 2 O solutions from experimental data characterizing solution density. Density data was treated using a Pitzer-derived eight-parameter equation, defining density as a function of analyte concentrations, temperature, and interactions between these variables. The model is predictive across the concentration and temperature ranges from which it was derived. The potential effects of varying oxidation states of plutonium, which are easily accessible in aqueous media, on the bulk solution density of the ternary system were also investigated. The resulting Pitzer-derived density law was applied to a nuclear criticality safety model, and the impact of the experimental characterization of solution density relative to previous estimates was demonstrated to be significant and suggest that the current approach to estimating density in nuclear criticality safety calculations may lead to overly conservative controls.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of Simultaneous Measurement for Variational Quantum Eigensolver Applications

Variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) is a promising algorithm suitable for near-term quantum computers. VQE aims to approximate solutions to exponentially-sized optimization problems by executing a polynomial number of quantum sub-problems. However, the number of subproblems scales as N-4 for typical problems of interest-a daunting growth rate that poses a serious limitation for emerging applications such as quantum computational chemistry. We mitigate this issue by exploiting the simultaneous measurability of subproblems corresponding to commuting terms. Our technique transpiles VQE instances into a format optimized for simultaneous measurement, ultimately yielding 8-30x lower cost. Our work also encompasses a synthesis tool for compiling simultaneous measurement circuits with minimal overhead. We demonstrate experimental validation of our techniques by estimating the ground state energy of deuteron with a quantum computer. We also investigate the underlying statistics of simultaneous measurement and devise an adaptive strategy for mitigating harmful covariance terms.

quantum computing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regularized Differentiation for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

In this paper, we propose and investigate the performance of two novel shrinkage estimators for bioburden density estimation in planetary protection. The estimators are based on the regularized differentiation of a cumulative count of colony forming units collected throughout the data collecting session or the life cycle of the entire mission. The regularized differentiation recasts the problem of bioburden density estimation as a linear least squares problem. The least squares problem is then solved through regularization techniques, such as truncated singular value decomposition and penalized least squares. The regularization is necessary to avoid noise amplification during the differentiation of noisy data. The two regularization estimators are compared with four other commonly used estimators to simultaneously evaluate the means of multivariable independent Poisson distributions: the maximum likelihood, noninformative Bayes estimator with Jeffreys prior, Empirical Bayes using conjugate gamma-Poisson model with gamma parameters selected by method of moments, and the Clevenson-Zidek estimator. It is shown through computer-simulated data that the regularized differentiation based on ridge regression has the smallest mean-squared error among all estimators. The analysis of shrinkage mechanism implemented by regularized differentiation is performed, and it is shown that the regularized differentiation amounts to performing a weighted averaging of all the samples. The weights are determined by the regularization parameter automatically selected by the L-curve technique. Since the method of least squares makes no distributional assumptions about the data, it presents an attractive technique for bioburden density estimation when there are concerns about the misspecification of the distributional model. The paper concludes with the analysis of the bioburden data collected during InSight mission and directions for future work.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adaptive Hybridizable Discontinuous Galerkin discretization of the Grad–Shafranov equation by extension from polygonal subdomains

In this work, we propose a high-order adaptive numerical solver for the semilinear elliptic boundary value problem modeling magnetic plasma equilibrium in axisymmetric confinement devices. In the fixed boundary case, the equation is posed on curved domains with piecewise smooth curved boundaries that may present corners. The solution method we present is based on the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin method and sidesteps the need for geometry-conforming triangulations thanks to a transfer technique that allows to approximate the solution using only a polygonal subset as computational domain. Moreover, the solver features automatic mesh refinement driven by a residual-based a posteriori error estimator. As the mesh is locally refined, the computational domain is automatically updated in order to always maintain the distance between the actual boundary and the computational boundary of the order of the local mesh diameter. Numerical evidence is presented of the suitability of the estimator as an approximate error measure for physically relevant equilibria with pressure pedestals, internal transport barriers, and current holes on realistic geometries.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Path Properties of Atmospheric Transitions: Illustration with a Low-Order Sudden Stratospheric Warming Model

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the limited data that are available. Here we describe transition path theory (TPT), a framework originally developed for molecular simulation, and argue that it is a useful paradigm for developing mechanistic understanding of rare climate events. TPT provides a method to calculate statistical properties of the paths into the event. As an initial demonstration of the utility of TPT, we analyze a low-order model of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), a dramatic disturbance to the polar vortex that can induce extreme cold spells at the surface in the midlatitudes. SSW events pose a major challenge for seasonal weather prediction because of their rapid, complex onset and development. Climate models struggle to capture the long-term statistics of SSW, owing to their diversity and intermittent nature. We use a stochastically forced Holton–Mass-type model with two stable states, corresponding to radiative equilibrium and a vacillating SSW-like regime. In this stochastic bistable setting, from certain probabilistic forecasts TPT facilitates estimation of dominant transition pathways and return times of transitions. These “dynamical statistics” are obtained by solving partial differential equations in the model’s phase space. With future application to more complex models, TPT and its constituent quantities promise to improve the predictability of extreme weather events through both generation and principled evaluation of forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of biokinetic parameters reveals patterns in mercury accumulation across aquatic species

Mercury (Hg) is a potent neurotoxicant and poses a risk to human health through the ingestion of Hg-contaminated fish. Mercury, especially in its organic form methylmercury (MeHg), biomagnifies up food chains such that even small aqueous concentrations of Hg can result in significant concentrations of total Hg in fish. Understanding the ecological and human health risks associated with Hg and MeHg exposure requires an understanding of the factors that affect its bioaccumulation in aquatic species. We compiled estimates of three biokinetic parameters: uptake rate (k u ), assimilation efficiency (AE), and efflux rate (k e ). These parameters describe contaminant uptake from aqueous (k u ) and dietary (AE) exposure and the rate of excretion (k e ). We found parameter values for 38 and 34 different species of fish and aquatic invertebrates, respectively, and collected 502 parameter values in total. Here, we used a machine learning technique to establish the relationships between experimental and physiological variables and these parameter values. We found differences in which variables were associated with biokinetic parameter values for fish and aquatic invertebrates. The form of Hg was the most impactful variable, influencing values of all parameters except k u for invertebrates, for which aqueous exposure time was the only significant predicator variable. The parameter k e were the only values significantly influenced by more than one variable, with water type (freshwater, brackish, or marine), organism weight, and form of Hg significantly impacting parameter values for fish and/or invertebrates. To our knowledge, this study represents the most extensive review of biokinetic parameters of Hg and MeHg accumulation in aquatic organisms. Environmental parameters found to significantly impact Hg and MeHg bioaccumulation in past studies were not identified as important in our analyses across aquatic ecosystems and species. Our dataset and analysis reveal novel patterns that may help us better understand and manage Hg bioaccumulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time-Dependent Failure Assessment of Ceramic Receivers

The outlet temperature targets for Gen 3 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) systems pose a significant challenge to the structural reliability of high temperature metallic components, including those manufactured from nickel-based superalloys. Advanced ceramics present a potential solution due to their excellent high-temperature strength. However, accurate assessment of ceramic components requires an entirely different approach compared to metallic components. This paper describes the implementation of time-dependent reliability analysis of ceramic components in srlife – an open-source software package for estimating the life of high temperature CSP components. This new capability will allow high temperature CSP designers to make fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic designs and accurately assess the performance of different ceramic materials for CSP receivers and other components. The current version of the tool is available at https://github.com/Argonne-National-Laboratory/srlife.

Barua, Bipul (ORCID:0000000247184113)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Waffle Homes: Utilizing Aerial Imagery of Unfinished Buildings to Determine Average Room Size

A primary function of the Population Density Tables Project (PDT) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is to produce residential population densities per 1000 sq. ft. for each country and their associated first-level administrative units. This is accomplished by utilizing the average size of different types of dwelling areas (urban, rural, single-family, multi-family, etc.) and the average household size provided by a country’s Census or statistical bureau records. This data is available for the majority of Europe, North America, and large swathes of Asia, but is less easily found in Africa and South America. In these regions, Censuses generally report dwelling area by number of rooms, which poses the challenging question of how we can translate number of rooms to dwelling size when no dwelling size areas are available with which to compare. Using sub-meter resolution satellite imagery of Accra, Ghana, this challenge can be tackled using imagery of roofless buildings currently under construction that show the interior floor plan of the dwelling. A sample of buildings from the different neighborhoods of Accra can be digitized to provide an estimate and range of average room sizes of dwellings. This average room size can then be translated to a total dwelling area using the "number of rooms occupied by a household" variable from the Ghanaian Census. This intermediate step between average dwelling size and number of rooms occupied, fills the missing link that prevents PDT from continually producing new population densities for countries where dwelling size is unavailable through any official means.

Woody, Carson↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of storage required for preserving frequency security in wind‐integrated systems

Abstract The penetration of wind power generation into the power grid has been accelerated in recent times due to the aggressive emission targets set by governments and other regulatory authorities. Although wind power has the advantage of being environment‐friendly, wind as a resource is intermittent in nature. In addition, wind power contributes little inertia to the system as most wind turbines are connected to the grid via power electronic converters. These negative aspects of wind power pose serious challenges to the frequency security of power systems as penetration increases. In this work, an approach is proposed where an energy storage system (ESS) is used to mitigate frequency security issues of wind‐integrated systems. ESSs are well equipped to supply virtual inertia to the grid due to their fast‐acting nature, thus replenishing some of the energy storage capability of displaced inertial generation. In this work, a probabilistic approach is proposed to estimate the amount of inertia required by a system to ensure frequency security. Reduction in total system inertia due to the displacement of conventional synchronous generation by wind power generation is considered in this approach, while also taking into account the loss of inertia due to forced outages of conventional units. Monte Carlo simulation is employed for implementing the probabilistic estimation of system inertia. An ESS is then sized appropriately, using the system swing equation, to compensate for the lost inertia. The uncertainty associated with wind energy is modeled into the framework using an autoregressive moving average technique. Effects of increasing the system peak load and changing the wind profile on the expected system inertia are studied to illustrate various factors that might affect system frequency security. The proposed method is validated using the IEEE 39‐bus test system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Derived Dynamic Operating Reserve Requirements in High-Renewable Power Systems

Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multi-stage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. Addition of these batteries saturate reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chemical Characterization of Natural Gas Leaking from Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells in Western Pennsylvania

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that there are over 3.2 million abandoned wells in the United States. Studies conducted on gas emissions from abandoned wells have been limited to methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, due to concerns regarding climate change. However, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including benzene, a known human carcinogen, are known to be associated with upstream oil and gas development and hence could also be released when methane is emitted to the atmosphere. In this investigation, we analyze gas from 48 abandoned wells in western Pennsylvania for fixed gases, light hydrocarbons, and VOCs and estimate associated emission rates. We demonstrate that (1) gas from abandoned wells contains VOCs, including benzene; (2) VOCs are emitted from abandoned wells, the magnitude of which depends on the flow rate and concentration of VOCs in the gas stream; and (3) nearly one-quarter of abandoned wells are located within 100 m of buildings, including residences, in Pennsylvania. Together, these observations indicate that further investigation is necessary to determine whether emissions from abandoned wells pose an inhalation risk to people living, working, or congregating near abandoned wells.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the Prediction of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Within a Data-Driven Framework

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) pose the largest uncertainty for climate projection. Among many challenges of understanding ACI, the question of whether ACI can be deterministically predicted has not been explicitly answered. Here we attempt to answer this question by predicting cloud droplet number concentration N c from aerosol number concentration N a and ambient conditions using a data-driven framework. We use aerosol properties, vertical velocity fluctuations, and meteorological states from the ACTIVATE field observations (2020–2022) as predictors to estimate N c . We show that the campaign-wide N c can be successfully predicted using machine learning models despite the strongly nonlinear and multi-scale nature of ACI. However, the observation-trained machine learning model fails to predict N c in individual cases while it successfully predicts N c of randomly selected data points that cover a broad spatiotemporal scale. This suggests that, within a data-driven framework, the N c prediction is uncertain at fine spatiotemporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ground Transportation at Airports: Ridehailing Uptake and Travel Shifts to Test Mode Choice Modeling Assumption

Ground transportation at airports poses a unique opportunity to understand mode shifts after introduction of ride-hailing services. Using five years of monthly transaction data for five modes (transit, parking, car rental, taxis, and ride-hailing) at the Seattle-Tacoma and Denver airports, this paper presents findings on how ride-hailing uptake impacts mode share for ground transportation trips to and from the airport. More specifically, the results explore how well the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives facilitates estimation and forecasts prediction used in travel demand modeling for the uptake of new modes, as simply drawing from present modes in proportion to their existing shares.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Financial Analysis of the Smallmouth Bass Flows implemented at the Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2024

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) power resource that is a component of the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). The 2016 record of decision (ROD) for the GCD long-term experimental and management plan (LTEMP) final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) specifies criteria for GCD monthly water releases, daily and hourly operating limits, and experimental releases. This report presents a financial analysis of the Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) (SMB) flows implemented at GCD during Water Year (WY) 2024. These bypass flows were introduced by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) as an emergency response to the growing threat posed by invasive SMB in the Colorado River ecosystem downstream of the dam. SMB are a non-native predatory species that pose a significant threat to native fish populations, including the endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha). The thermal regime below GCD, typically cold due to hypolimnetic releases from Lake Powell, has historically served as a thermal barrier limiting SMB establishment. However, persistently low reservoir levels in recent years have reduced stratification in Lake Powell, allowing warmer water to be released downstream. This has enabled SMB to spawn successfully below the dam, prompting urgent ecological concerns. To mitigate the risk of SMB proliferation, the USBR implemented a series of bypass flows in WY 2024. Drawn from a lower elevation than the penstocks, the bypass structures released cooler water downstream. These short-duration bypass flows aimed to keep temperatures cool enough to prevent SMB from spawning, thereby reducing the ecological threat posed by this invasive species. Although motivated by ecological objectives, these bypass flows came with financial tradeoffs. Releasing water through the bypass structures instead of the turbines at GCD reduced hydropower generation, resulting in a significantly lower financial position for Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), which is responsible for marketing the electricity produced by the GCD Powerplant. This report analyzes the financial impact of the SMB flows implemented from July to November 2024. These experimental releases led to an estimated financial cost of approximately $18.9 million, primarily driven by the substantial volume of water diverted through the bypass structures. This study applies an integrated set of tools to estimate WAPA financial impacts by simulating GCD under two types of cases; namely, (1) a “With Experiment” case that mimics the water operations that actually occurred, including the SMB bypass flows, and (2) a “Without Experiment” case that simulates operations under the assumption that the SMB flows did not occur. Both cases comply with LTEMP hourly and daily operating criteria, and the monthly water release volumes are assumed to be identical under both cases. The Colorado River Storage Project Python-based model (CRiSPPy) model was the main modeling tool used to simulate the dispatch of the GCD hydropower plant and associated water releases from Lake Powell. In the modeling process, the research team used extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and WAPA’s power purchases and sales prices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events, posing challenges to food security. Corn, a staple crop for billions, is particularly vulnerable to heat stress, a primary driver of yield variability. While many studies have examined climate impact on average corn yields, little attention has been given to the climate impact on production volatility. This study investigates the future volatility and risks associated with global corn supply under climate change, evaluating the potential benefits of two key adaptation strategies: irrigation and market integration. A statistical model is employed to estimate corn yield response to heat stress and utilize NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate data to project future production volatility and risks of substantial yield losses. Three metrics are introduced to quantify these risks: Sigma (σ), the standard deviation of year-on-year yield change, which reflects overall yield volatility; Rho (ρ), the risk of substantial loss, defined as the probability of yield falling below a critical threshold; and Beta (β), a relative risk coefficient that captures the volatility of a region's corn production compared to the globally integrated market. The analysis reveals a concerning trend of increasing year-on-year yield volatility (σ) across most regions and climate models. This volatility increase is significant for key corn-producing regions like Brazil and the United States. While irrigated corn production exhibits a smaller rise in volatility, suggesting irrigation as a potential buffer against climate change impacts, it is not a sustainable option as it can cause groundwater depletion. On the other hand, global market integration reduces overall volatility and market risks significantly with less sustainability concerns. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach to adaptation in the food sector. While irrigation can benefit individual farmers, promoting global market integration offers a broader solution for fostering resilience and sustainability across the entire food system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact Analysis of Future Electric Vehicles Using Model of Real Distribution Feeders

Globally, the number of electric vehicles (EVs) continues to increase. This on-going trend poses challenges for power distribution systems. The inclusion of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) should be compatible with a changing energy system, whose structure is becoming increasingly distributed. The impact of future EVs should be analyzed and considered in the system planning and upgrades. In this study, impact analysis of future EVs is conducted for a utility company of U.S. West Coast. Real data of distribution feeders is converted into the GridLAB-D model for running power flow analysis. An estimation of the additional loading of EVs in 2050 is provided by the utility company. Simple mitigation methods are tested to improve voltage profiles and complete this case study.

Xie, Jing↗