Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “power prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

How does ion temperature gradient turbulence depend on magnetic geometry? Insights from data and machine learning

Magnetic geometry has a significant effect on the level of turbulent transport in fusion plasmas. Here, we model and analyse this dependence using multiple machine learning methods and a dataset of >200 000 nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations of ion-temperature-gradient turbulence in diverse non-axisymmetric geometries. The dataset is generated using a large collection of both optimised and randomly generated stellarator equilibria. At fixed gradients and other input parameters, the turbulent heat flux varies between geometries by several orders of magnitude. Trends are apparent among the configurations with particularly high or particularly low heat flux. Regression and classification techniques from machine learning are then applied to extract patterns in the dataset. Due to a symmetry of the gyrokinetic equation, the heat flux and regressions thereof should be invariant to translations of the raw features in the parallel coordinate, similar to translation invariance in computer vision applications. Multiple regression models including convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and decision trees can achieve reasonable predictive power for the heat flux in held-out test configurations, with highest accuracy for the CNNs. Using Spearman correlation, sequential feature selection and Shapley values to measure feature importance, it is consistently found that the most important geometric lever on the heat flux is the flux surface compression in regions of bad curvature. The second most important geometric feature relates to the magnitude of geodesic curvature. These two features align remarkably with surrogates that have been proposed based on theory, while the methods here allow a natural extension to more features for increased accuracy. The dataset, released with this publication, may also be used to test other proposed surrogates, and we find that many previously published proxies do correlate well with both the heat flux and stability boundary.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atom-at-a-Time Radioactive Molecule Identification: Looking toward Studies of Superheavy Elements

The chemical behavior of superheavy elements (SHEs, Z > 103) remains poorly understood. Their chemical properties are expected to deviate from established trends, challenging the predictive power of the periodic table. To investigate these elements experimentally, they must first be synthesized through nuclear reactions and then quickly subjected to chemical studies before they decay. Given the low production rates of these reactions and the need for measurements on an atom-at-a-time basis, innovative techniques are needed. Here, to address these challenges, a novel gas-phase chemistry method has been developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, utilizing the Berkeley Gas-filled Separator and FIONA. This technique enables the production, identification, and study of molecular species formed by SHEs. As a proof of concept, we present measurements on the formation and identification of 151,152 HoO + molecules, demonstrating the capability to study the production of radioactive molecules under controlled conditions and directly identify them via their mass-to-charge ratio. These measurements validate the effectiveness of this technique for low-statistics SHE studies, highlighting the potential of this approach to ignite the next generation of experimental SHE chemistry research, offering a path to re-evaluate SHE placement on the periodic table.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Defining Reactivity–Deconstructability Relationships for Copolymerizations Involving Cleavable Comonomer Additives

The incorporation of cleavable comonomers as additives into polymers can imbue traditional polymers with controlled deconstructability and expanded end-of-life options. The efficiency with which cleavable comonomer additives (CCAs) can enable deconstruction is sensitive to their local distribution within a copolymer backbone, which is dictated by their copolymerization behavior. While qualitative heuristics exist that describe deconstructability, comprehensive quantitative connections between CCA loadings, reactivity ratios, polymerization mechanisms, and deconstruction reactions on the deconstruction efficiency of copolymers containing CCAs have not been established. Here, in this work, we broadly define these relationships using stochastic simulations characterizing various polymerization mechanisms (e.g., controlled/living, free-radical, and reversible ring-opening polymerizations), reactivity ratio pairs (spanning 2 orders of magnitude between 0.01 and 100), CCA loadings (2.5% to 20%), and deconstruction reactions (e.g., comonomer sequence-dependent deconstruction behavior). We show general agreement between simulated and experimentally observed deconstruction fragment sizes from the literature, demonstrating the predictive power of the methods used herein. These results will guide the development of more efficient CCAs and inform the formulation of deconstructable materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systematic Bandgap Engineering of a 2D Organic–Inorganic Chalcogenide Semiconductor via Ligand Modification

Hybrid organic–inorganic semiconductors present new opportunities for optoelectronic materials design not available in all-organic or all-inorganic materials. One example is silver phenylselenide (AgSePh) – or “mithrene” – a blue-emitting 2D organic–inorganic semiconductor exhibiting strong optical and electronic anisotropy. Here, we show that the bandgap of mithrene can be systematically tuned by introducing electron-donating and electron-withdrawing groups to the phenyl ligands. We synthesized nine mithrene variants, eight of which formed 2D van der Waals crystals analogous to those of AgSePh. Density functional theory calculations reveal that these 2D mithrene variants are direct-gap or nearly direct gap semiconductors. Furthermore, we identify correlations between the optical gap and three experimental observables – the Hammett constant, 77 Se chemical shift, and selenium partial charge – offering predictive power for bandgap tuning. These findings highlight new opportunities for applying the tools of chemical synthesis to semiconductor materials design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structural Heterogeneity and Hydrodynamics of an Intrinsically Disordered Protein Condensate

Biology demonstrates precise control over the free-energy landscape through the selective partitioning of biomacromolecules into membraneless organelles, enabling essential functions such as biochemical transformations, signaling cascades, and mechanical reinforcement. Although the function of these condensates depends on their underlying structure and hydrodynamics, molecular-scale information on these systems remains sparse. Here, in this study, neutron scattering is used to probe the organization and dynamics of the intrinsically disordered N-terminal domain of Galectin-3, an extracellular lectin responsible for facilitating liquid–liquid phase separation on the cellular surface, in both dilute and condensed phases. Dilute solutions contain isolated protein chains in equilibrium with mesoscopic clusters, whereas the condensed phase adopts a bicontinuous, microemulsion-like morphology. The dilute phase behavior is quantitatively described by coarse-grained polymer models from soft-matter physics, demonstrating their predictive power for complex biological proteins. At elevated concentrations, the proteins self-assemble akin to block copolymers, microphase separating through the aggregation of hydrophobic domains along the protein contour. The resulting condensate remains fluid-like despite a 25-fold increase in concentration; its internal hydrodynamics slow by only a factor of 3 relative to dilute protein chains. These results provide a molecular-level framework for how disordered proteins achieve both the structural complexity and dynamic fluidity of biomolecular condensates.

Carrick, Brian R. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technolo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Predicts the Timing and Shear Stress Evolution of Lab Earthquakes Using Active Seismic Monitoring of Fault Zone Processes

Abstract Machine learning (ML) techniques have become increasingly important in seismology and earthquake science. Lab‐based studies have used acoustic emission data to predict time‐to‐failure and stress state, and in a few cases, the same approach has been used for field data. However, the underlying physical mechanisms that allow lab earthquake prediction and seismic forecasting remain poorly resolved. Here, we address this knowledge gap by coupling active‐source seismic data, which probe asperity‐scale processes, with ML methods. We show that elastic waves passing through the lab fault zone contain information that can predict the full spectrum of labquakes from slow slip instabilities to highly aperiodic events. The ML methods utilize systematic changes in P‐wave amplitude and velocity to accurately predict the timing and shear stress during labquakes. The ML predictions improve in accuracy closer to fault failure, demonstrating that the predictive power of the ultrasonic signals improves as the fault approaches failure. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between the ultrasonic parameters and fault slip rate, and in turn, the systematically evolving real area of contact and asperity stiffness allow the gradient boosting algorithm to “learn” about the state of the fault and its proximity to failure. Broadly, our results demonstrate the utility of physics‐informed ML in forecasting the imminence of fault slip at the laboratory scale, which may have important implications for earthquake mechanics in nature.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Climate-Disease Connections in Geopolitical Versus Ecological Regions: The Case of West Nile Virus in the United States

Many infectious disease forecasting models in the United States (US) are built with data partitioned into geopolitical regions centered on human activity as opposed to regions defined by natural ecosystems; although useful for data collection and intervention, this has the potential to mask biological relationships between the environment and disease. We explored this concept by analyzing the correlations between climate and West Nile virus (WNV) case data aggregated to geopolitical and ecological regions. We compared correlations between minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperature; precipitation; and annual WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) case data from 2005 to 2019 when partitioned into (a) climate regions defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and (b) Level I ecoregions defined by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We found that correlations between climate and WNND in NOAA climate regions and EPA ecoregions were often contradictory in both direction and magnitude, with EPA ecoregions more often supporting previously established biological hypotheses and environmental dynamics underlying vector-borne disease transmission. Using ecological regions to examine the relationships between climate and disease cases can enhance the predictive power of forecasts at various scales, motivating a conceptual shift in large-scale analyses from geopolitical frameworks to more ecologically meaningful regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

WUS324: Multiscale Full Waveform Inversion Approaching Convergence Improves Waveform Fits While Imaging Seismic Structure of the Western United States

Abstract We report a new model of radially anisotropic crustal and upper mantle structure of the western United States (WUS324) obtained from full waveform inversion of earthquake data. We ran three multiscale inversion stages beyond model WUS256 (Rodgers et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jb024549 ) allowing them to approach convergence to fit a larger data set to a shorter minimum period of 16 s. WUS324 is based on 324 total iterations from its starting model, significantly more (16 times) than previous studies. Waveform misfit reductions are 66%–70% for both the inversion data and an independent validation data set providing confidence in the predictive power of the model. WUS324 provides much better fits and reveals shear wavespeed, v S , structure of this large region with more detail than previous waveform tomography models. We show representative images demonstrating the resolution of diverse seismic structure across this highly heterogeneous region including oceanic lithosphere, subducting slabs and continental magmatism.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vitamin interdependencies predicted by metagenomics-informed network analyses and validated in microbial community microcosms

Abstract Metagenomic or metabarcoding data are often used to predict microbial interactions in complex communities, but these predictions are rarely explored experimentally. Here, we use an organism abundance correlation network to investigate factors that control community organization in mine tailings-derived laboratory microbial consortia grown under dozens of conditions. The network is overlaid with metagenomic information about functional capacities to generate testable hypotheses. We develop a metric to predict the importance of each node within its local network environments relative to correlated vitamin auxotrophs, and predict that a Variovorax species is a hub as an important source of thiamine. Quantification of thiamine during the growth of Variovorax in minimal media show high levels of thiamine production, up to 100 mg/L. A few of the correlated thiamine auxotrophs are predicted to produce pantothenate, which we show is required for growth of Variovorax , supporting that a subset of vitamin-dependent interactions are mutualistic. A Cryptococcus yeast produces the B-vitamin pantothenate, and co-culturing with Variovorax leads to a 90-130-fold fitness increase for both organisms. Our study demonstrates the predictive power of metagenome-informed, microbial consortia-based network analyses for identifying microbial interactions that underpin the structure and functioning of microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets

Global agricultural commodity markets are highly integrated among major producers. Prices are driven by aggregate supply rather than what happens in individual countries in isolation. Furthermore, estimating the effects of weather-induced shocks on production, trade patterns and prices hence requires a globally representative weather data set. Recently, two data sets that provide daily or hourly records, GMFD and ERA5-Land, became available. Starting with the US, a data rich region, we formally test whether these global data sets are as good as more fine-scaled country-specific data in explaining yields and whether they estimate similar response functions. While GMFD and ERA5-Land have lower predictive skill for US corn and soybeans yields than the fine-scaled PRISM data, they still correctly uncover the underlying non-linear temperature relationship. All specifications using daily temperature extremes under any of the weather data sets outperform models that use a quadratic in average temperature. Correctly capturing the effect of daily extremes has a larger effect than the choice of weather data. In a second step, focusing on Sub Saharan Africa, a data sparse region, we confirm that GMFD and ERA5-Land have superior predictive power to CRU, a global weather data set previously employed for modeling climate effects in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Revealing the hidden structure of disordered materials by parameterizing their local structural manifold

Abstract Durable interest in developing a framework for the detailed structure of glassy materials has produced numerous structural descriptors that trade off between general applicability and interpretability. However, none approach the combination of simplicity and wide-ranging predictive power of the lattice-grain-defect framework for crystalline materials. Working from the hypothesis that the local atomic environments of a glassy material are constrained by enthalpy minimization to a low-dimensional manifold in atomic coordinate space, we develop a generalized distance function, the Gaussian Integral Inner Product (GIIP) distance, in connection with agglomerative clustering and diffusion maps, to parameterize that manifold. Applying this approach to a two-dimensional model crystal and a three-dimensional binary model metallic glass results in parameters interpretable as coordination number, composition, volumetric strain, and local symmetry. In particular, we show that a more slowly quenched glass has a higher degree of local tetrahedral symmetry at the expense of cyclic symmetry. While these descriptors require post-hoc interpretation, they minimize bias rooted in crystalline materials science and illuminate a range of structural trends that might otherwise be missed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dominant end-tunneling effect in two distinct Luttinger liquids coexisting in one quantum wire

Luttinger liquids occupy a notable place in physics as one of the most understood classes of quantum many-body systems. The experimental mission of measuring its main prediction, power laws in observable quantities, has already produced a body of exponents in different semiconductor and metallic structures. Here, we combine tunneling spectroscopy with density-dependent transport measurements in the same quantum wires over more than two orders of magnitude in temperature to very low electron temperatures down to ∼40 mK. This reveals that, when the second 1D subband becomes populated, the temperature dependence splits into two ranges with different exponents in the power-law dependence of the conductance, both dominated by the finite-size effect of the end-tunneling process. This result demonstrates the importance of measuring the Luttinger parameters as well as the number of modes independently through spectroscopy in addition to the transport exponent in the characterization of Luttinger liquids. This opens a pathway to unambiguous interpretation of the exponents observed in quantum wires.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of ion fluxes across thylakoid membranes on photosynthetic electron transport and photoprotection

In photosynthetic thylakoid membranes the proton motive force (pmf) not only drives ATP synthesis, in addition it is central to controlling and regulating energy conversion. As a consequence, dynamic fine-tuning of the two pmf components, electrical (Δψ) and chemical (ΔpH), is an essential element for adjusting photosynthetic light reactions to changing environmental conditions. Good evidence exists that the Δψ/ΔpH partitioning is controlled by thylakoid potassium and chloride ion transporters and channels. However, a detailed mechanistic understanding of how these thylakoid ion transporter/channels control pmf partitioning is lacking. In this work, we combined functional measurements on potassium and chloride ion transporter and channel loss-of-function mutants with extended mathematical simulations of photosynthetic light reactions in thylakoid membranes to obtain detailed kinetic insights into the complex interrelationship between membrane energization and ion fluxes across thylakoid membranes. The data reveal that potassium and chloride fluxes in the thylakoid lumen determined by the K + /H + antiporter KEA3 and the voltage-gated Cl – channel VCCN1/Best1 have distinct kinetic responses that lead to characteristic and light-intensity-dependent Δψ/ΔpH oscillations. These oscillations fine-tune photoprotective mechanisms and electron transport which are particularly important during the first minutes of illumination and under fluctuating light conditions. By employing the predictive power of the model, we unravelled the functional consequences of changes in KEA3 and VCCN1 abundance and regulatory/enzymatic parameters on membrane energization and photoprotection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing nanoscale charged colloid crystallization near a metastable liquid binodal

Achieving predictive control over crystallization using non-classical nucleation while avoiding kinetic traps would be a step towards designing materials with new functionalities. We address these challenges by inducing the bottom-up assembly of nanocrystals into ordered arrays, or superlattices. Using electrostatics—rather than density—to tune the interactions between particles, we watch self-assembly proceed through a metastable liquid phase. Here, we systematically investigate the phase behaviour as a function of quench conditions in situ and in real time using small-angle X-ray scattering. By fitting to colloid, liquid and superlattice models, we extract the time evolution of each phase and the system phase diagram, which we find to be consistent with short-range attractive interactions. Using the predictive power of the phase diagram, we establish control of the self-assembly rate over three orders of magnitude, and we identify one- and two-step self-assembly regimes, with only the latter implicating the metastable liquid as an intermediate. The presence of the metastable liquid increases the superlattice formation rate relative to the equivalent one-step pathway, and the superlattice order increases with the rate, revealing a generalizable kinetic strategy for promoting and enhancing ordered assembly.

Tanner, Christian P. N. [University of California,↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emergence of quasiparticles in a doped Mott insulator

How a Mott insulator develops into a weakly coupled metal upon doping is a central question to understanding various emergent correlated phenomena. To analyze this evolution and its connection to the high- T c cuprates, we study the single-particle spectrum for the doped Hubbard model using cluster perturbation theory on superclusters. Starting from extremely low doping, we identify a heavily renormalized quasiparticle dispersion that immediately develops across the Fermi level, and a weakening polaronic side band at higher binding energy. The quasiparticle spectral weight roughly grows at twice the rate of doping in the low doping regime, but this rate is halved at optimal doping. In the heavily doped regime, we find both strong electron-hole asymmetry and a persistent presence of Mott spectral features. Finally, we discuss the applicability of the single-band Hubbard model to describe the evolution of nodal spectra measured by angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) on the single-layer cuprate La 2– x Sr x CuO 4 (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.15). This work benchmarks the predictive power of the Hubbard model for electronic properties of high- T c cuprates.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovering nuclear models from symbolic machine learning

Numerous phenomenological nuclear models have been proposed to describe specific observables within different regions of the nuclear chart. However, developing a unified model that describes the complex behavior of all nuclei remains an open challenge. Here, we explore whether symbolic Machine Learning (ML) can rediscover traditional nuclear physics models or identify alternatives with improved simplicity, fidelity, and predictive power. To address this challenge, we developed a Multi-objective Iterated Symbolic Regression approach that handles symbolic regressions over multiple target observables, accounts for experimental uncertainties and is robust against high-dimensional problems. As a proof of principle, we applied this method to describe the nuclear binding energies and charge radii of light and medium mass nuclei. Our approach identified simple analytical relationships based on the number of protons and neutrons, providing interpretable models with precision comparable to state-of-the-art nuclear models. Additionally, we integrated this ML-discovered model with an existing complementary model to estimate the limits of nuclear stability. These results highlight the potential of symbolic ML to develop accurate nuclear models and guide our description of complex many-body problems.

Nuclear structure↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal thermodynamic conditions to minimize kinetic by-products in aqueous materials synthesis

Abstract Phase diagrams offer substantial predictive power for materials synthesis by identifying the stability regions of target phases. However, thermodynamic phase diagrams do not offer explicit information regarding the kinetic competitiveness of undesired by-product phases. Here we propose a quantitative and computable thermodynamic metric to identify synthesis conditions under which the propensity to form kinetically competing by-products is minimized. We hypothesize that thermodynamic competition is minimized when the difference in free energy between a target phase and the minimal energy of all other competing phases is maximized. We validate this hypothesis for aqueous materials synthesis through two empirical approaches: first, by analysing 331 aqueous synthesis recipes text-mined from the literature; and second, by systematic experimental synthesis of LiIn(IO 3 ) 4 and LiFePO 4 across a wide range of aqueous electrochemical conditions. Our results show that even for synthesis conditions that are within the stability region of a thermodynamic Pourbaix diagram, phase-pure synthesis occurs only when thermodynamic competition with undesired phases is minimized.

Wang, Zheren (ORCID:0000000227429451)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanistic insight of KBiQ 2 (Q = S, Se) using panoramic synthesis towards synthesis-by-design

Solid-state synthesis has historically focused on reactants and end products; however, knowledge of reaction pathways, intermediate phases and their formation may provide mechanistic insight of solid-state reactions. With an increased understanding of reaction progressions, design principles can be deduced, affording more predictive power in materials synthesis. In pursuit of this goal, in situ powder X-ray diffraction is employed to observe crystalline phase evolution over the course of the reaction, thereby constructing a “panoramic” view of the reaction from beginning to end. We conducted in situ diffraction studies in the K–Bi–Q (Q = S, Se) system to understand the formation of phases occurring in this system in the course of their reactions. Powder mixtures of K 2 Q to Bi 2 Q 3 in 1:1 and 1.5:1 ratios were heated to 800 °C or 650 °C, while simultaneously collecting diffraction data. Three new phases, K 3 BiS 3 , β-KBiS 2 , and β-KBiSe 2 , were discovered. Panoramic synthesis showed that K 3 BiQ 3 serves an important mechanistic role as a structural intermediate in both chalcogen systems (Q = S, Se) in the path to form the KBiQ 2 structure. Thermal analysis and calculations at the density functional theory (DFT) level show that the cation-ordered β-KBiQ 2 polymorphs are the thermodynamically stable phase in this compositional space, while Pair Distribution Function (PDF) analysis shows that all α-KBiQ 2 structures have local disorder due to stereochemically active lone pair expression of the bismuth atoms. The formation of the β-KBiQ 2 structures, both of which crystallize in the α-NaFeO 2 structure type, show a boundary where the structure can be disordered or ordered with regards to the alkali metal and bismuth. A cation radius tolerance for six-coordinate cation site sharing of ($\frac{r^+}{r^{3+}}$) ~ 1.3 is proposed. The mechanistic insight the panoramic synthesis technique provides in the K–Bi–Q system is progress towards the overarching goal of synthesis-by-design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗