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DOE OSTI2022

Microelectronics at the Department of Energy: Capabilities and Opportunities for Driving U.S. Competitiveness

Microelectronics are everywhere—embedded in our consumer products; underlying our power, transportation, and information infrastructure; and fortifying our national security. These and other microelectronics applications are also intricately linked with America’s energy and decarbonization goals. For instance, advanced power electronics are critical to our transition to renewable power and electric transport, and more energy-efficient computing and consumer devices are needed as energy consumption grows rapidly. Meanwhile, global supply chain disruptions beginning in 2020 and the ensuing chip shortage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic highlight the vulnerability of microelectronics supply chains. The globally distributed manufacturing base can be disrupted in unexpected ways, and there is no single solution to these challenges given the range of applications and technologies within the microelectronics industry—from ever-smaller, nanoscale feature sizes to large-scale commodity use cases to specialized functionalities. Rather, solutions will require the private sector, federal agencies, and research and development (R&D) organizations such as labs and universities to act in concert beyond their individual missions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

2020 JISEA Annual Report

The Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA) provides leading-edge, objective, high-impact research and analysis to guide transformative global energy investment and policy decisions. JISEA research and analysis provided decision-making support to industry, the financial sector, and government with a focus on the following strategic areas: energy systems transformation, circular economy for materials and global supply chains, clean energy for industry and agriculture. The 2020 JISEA Annual Report highlights technical reports, journal articles, and other publications produced by JISEA in 2019, along with key milestones, events, and other highlights.

analysis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Developing new pathways for energy and environmental decision-making in India: a review

Abstract India faces a dual challenge of economic development and responding to climate change. Although India’s per capita emissions are well below global average, the country is one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters. Indian policymakers and stakeholders require high-quality data and research to assess low-emissions, sustainable development strategies. Peer-reviewed literature is a key source of this information and also a key venue for conversation amongst research leaders. This paper examines the recent peer-reviewed literature on India’s 2030 and 2050 pathways. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify key quantitative national modeling studies. From the 34 studies identified, we synthesized scenario data to draw common conclusions and identify critical research gaps. The main focus was on examining the coverage and the state of information available on low-carbon pathways. Overall, we find a few scenarios that are potentially consistent with a 2070 net-zero goal, but more limited assessment of pathways to reach net-zero emissions before this date. Mitigation pathways with greater ambition are required across all energy sectors to ensure a smooth transition to net-zero emissions by or before 2070. The scenarios confirm that reducing emissions to below 2 GtCO 2 yr −1 by mid-century would necessitate significant transformations of the Indian energy sector, such as, a decrease in unabated coal power capacity, transportation modal shift, and industrial process switching. The assessment also finds substantial differences in final energy estimates reported across studies, particularly in transportation. The lack of consistency in, and transparency about underlying drivers, assumptions, and even outputs across studies points to the critical need for the sorts of coordinated, multi-model studies that have proven exceptionally valuable for decision makers in other major emitting countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The pursuit of net-positive sustainability for industrial decarbonization with hybrid energy systems

We report signatories of the Paris Agreement are set to miss their climate targets. The net-zero pledges announced to date across many countries and private industries are insufficient to achieve carbon neutrality, which requires implementation of far-reaching and significantly scaled-up climate-positive actions. All technology options that pertain to deep decarbonization and carbon removal must be part of the mitigation portfolio. Transformative action plans must be established in which every individual/organization around the globe is an actor of changes in relation to net-zero goals. Such plans must involve governmental policy support but also encourage voluntary efforts to boost innovations, investments, initiatives, and behavioral changes. Recognition of these efforts is made quantifiable with the concepts of carbon handprint and net positivity. This paper presents a carbon handprint perspective on characterizing the environmental benefits of hybrid energy systems (HESs)—a widely applicable solution to cleaner production leveraging the capabilities of a portfolio of low-carbon energy sources—that provide heat and electricity to industrial processes. First, the carbon handprint and net positivity concepts and their calculation approach are introduced. The state of the art of HES-enabled industrial cogeneration is then surveyed, and the greenhouse gas emission intensities of different energy sources that power HESs are compared. Next, drawing on a case study about a US chemical facility's voluntary initiative to explore replacing its fossil fuel–based cogeneration infrastructure with a clean energy–generated HES, several technically viable scenarios are evaluated—especially those with small modular nuclear reactors—to illustrate how the positive-thinking handprint approach helps encourage and inform the search for widespread influence pathways in pursuit of net-positive sustainability. Finally, current knowledge gaps in the case study are identified, and opportunities to scale up the proposed handprint-based analysis are outlined with consideration of an expanded role of HESs in fulfilling climate objectives.It is envisioned that like-minded decision makers in the industry sector and beyond will adopt this perspective and act synergistically to enhance their environmental stewardship through voluntary actions and make greater contributions to the planet's climate future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Life‐Cycle Assessment Considerations for Batteries and Battery Materials

Abstract Rechargeable batteries are necessary for the decarbonization of the energy systems, but life‐cycle environmental impact assessments have not achieved consensus on the environmental impacts of producing these batteries. Nonetheless, life cycle assessment (LCA) is a powerful tool to inform the development of better‐performing batteries with reduced environmental burden. This review explores common practices in lithium‐ion battery LCAs and makes recommendations for how future studies can be more interpretable, representative, and impactful. First, LCAs should focus analyses of resource depletion on long‐term trends toward more energy and resource‐intensive material extraction and processing rather than treating known reserves as a fixed quantity being depleted. Second, future studies should account for extraction and processing operations that deviate from industry best‐practices and may be responsible for an outsized share of sector‐wide impacts, such as artisanal cobalt mining. Third, LCAs should explore at least 2–3 battery manufacturing facility scales to capture size‐ and throughput‐dependent impacts such as dry room conditioning and solvent recovery. Finally, future LCAs must transition away from kg of battery mass as a functional unit and instead make use of kWh of storage capacity and kWh of lifetime energy throughput.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building Energy Systems as Behind-the-Meter Resources for Grid Services: Intelligent load control and transactive control and coordination

To mitigate the impacts of climate change, significant reductions in emissions from all sectors of the economy are needed. The electricity generation sector has embarked on an ambitious plan to include renewable generation as part of its decarbonization efforts, and many cities and states are mandating all-electric buildings. While renewable resources will reduce emissions, they are not dispatchable, they vary temporally, and their generation is uncertain. Under these conditions, traditional approaches to managing grid reliability, where supply follows demand, will not be efficient and may not be cost-effective. Further, there is a more efficient alternative for balancing the supply–demand imbalance and for absorbing variability and uncertainty of renewable energy using distributed energy resources (DERs) as opposed to reserve generation. Because buildings consume more than 75% of total U.S. annual electricity consumption, behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs have a load flexibility of 77 GW of power and 90 GWh of virtual energy storage capacity nationwide (Kalsi, 2017). Therefore, some portion of the supply–demand imbalance can be met by these DERs at a lower cost compared to business-as-usual solutions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Storage Futures Study: Key Learnings for the Coming Decades

The Storage Futures Study (SFS) is a multiyear research project that explored the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS examined the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. The research findings and supporting data were published across a series of six reports, culminating in the final, seventh publication that draws upon findings from across the study, previous work, and additional analysis to identify eight key learnings about the coming decades. This presentation is from an NREL webinar to discuss the eight key learnings.

decarbonization↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and Optimization of a Novel Hexagonal Waveguide Concentrator for Solar Thermal Applications

This paper analyzes a novel, cost-effective planar waveguide solar concentrator design that is inspired by cellular hexagonal structures in nature with the benefits of facile installation and low operation and maintenance cost. A coupled thermal and optical analysis of solar irradiation through an ideal hexagonal waveguide concentrator integrated with a linear receiver is presented, along with a cost analysis methodology, to establish the upper limit of performance. The techno-economic model, coupled with numerical optimization, is used to determine designs that maximized power density and minimized the cost of heat in the temperature range of 100–250 °C, which constitutes more than half of the industrial process heat demand. Depending on the incident solar irradiation and the application temperature, the cost of heat for the optimal design configuration ranged between 0.1–0.27 $/W and 0.075–0.18 $/W for waveguide made of ZK7 glass and polycarbonate, respectively. A techno-economic analysis showed the potential of the technology to achieve cost as low as 80 $/m2 and 61 $/m2 for waveguide made of ZK7 glass and polycarbonate material, respectively, which is less than half the cost of state-of-the-art parabolic trough concentrators. Overall, the hexagonal waveguide solar concentrator technology shows immense potential for decarbonizing the industrial process heat and thermal desalination sectors.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of powertrain system decarbonization using electrically assisted turbocharging and hybridization in off-road vehicles

In recent years, the causes, effects, and existential threat of a global anthropogenic climate shift have drawn significant attention and stimulated mitigation efforts from all genres of scientific, political, and industrial bodies. The greenhouse effect and the detrimental environmental impact of excess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, like carbon dioxide, is well studied and targeted as the primary culprit for aversive action. However, some fields exist where reducing GHG emissions is met by considerable challenges. One such field is the production and operations of off-road vehicles. Applications of these vehicles are highly diverse and are often characterized by rugged, especially transient, and power intensive duty cycles that make one-fits-all vehicle configuration solutions impractical. This research surveys existing literature to identify the modern technologies packages and challenges that face development and configuration of powertrain systems which currently navigate the regulated emissions and unique duty cycle requirements of this market space. A novel powertrain concept is proposed and evaluated with respect to the pinnacle objectives of load performance improvement, criteria pollutant reduction, and reducing the life cycle GHG intensity of its operation. A sure-fire path to vehicular GHG reduction is through improving the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines (ICEs), an entrenched component of the off-road vehicle sector. Unfortunately, this is more easily said than done. An approach that has proven successful in this endeavor is engine downsizing and turbocharging, where a larger engine is replaced with a smaller one with added air system boosting via turbocharger to reduce frictional and pumping losses while also enabling access to additional fuel energy. However, practical realization of these potential benefits is often impeded by the transient response capability of the smaller engine across the operating space. For this reason, downsized ICE powertrains have turned to electrified forced induction systems (EFISs) for a decoupling of exhaust energy and engine speed from boost capability. Platformed on 48V hybrid technology, these systems introduce the need for more sophisticated controls around the engine gas-exchange process for the management of boost performance and exhaust gas emissions. On this account, simulation studies utilizing a GT-POWER model of a turbocharged 4.5 L engine outfit with an EFIS using an electrically driven compressor (eBooster®) are conducted to provide insight into the performance of this air handling architecture on an off-road engine. The results show that improvement in transient torque response time in sync with reduction in engine-out soot and NOx emissions are possible with an engine recalibration that leverages the transient air-fuel ratio authority of the eBooster®. Benefits are further demonstrated when duty cycle simulations of the 48V mild-hybrid engine concept are exercised, showing an acute decrease in cumulative fuel usage and soot production. Powertrain hybridization is another technological pathway achieving pronounced GHG reduction successes in modern on-road vehicle applications through integration of Li-ion battery technology. In the off-road vehicle segment, a review of available literature concludes that hybridized architectures are present but generally lack the depth of technologies that have both high specific energy and power capabilities, and thus are limited in their inclusion of Li-ion batteries for ICE assistance and enhanced energy storage capability. Therefore, building on the mild-hybrid engine results, the downsized and eBoosted engine concept was integrated into a larger high-voltage battery-hybrid series-electric powertrain system. Hybrid powertrain parameter sensitivity studies were carried out in a numerical charge-sustaining framework, providing novel insights into power flows between the battery and the engine and how their respective capabilities and operation contribute to GHG and criteria pollutant emissions of diverse duty cycles. Application of supervisory power management introduced robustness into the power sourcing and battery SOC control process and showed that optimum specification of battery properties can yield synergies between GHG emissions and battery energy capacity. Furthermore, examination of recent literature on Li-ion batteries has shown that pack manufacturing is a highly energy intensive process, thereby producing considerable quantities of GHGs that scale with energy storage capacity. Also scaling with a battery’s energy storage capacity is its investment cost. In consideration of these factors, an inclusive technoeconomic and GHG life cycle analysis is conducted. This analysis systematically compares the carbon footprint and total cost of ownership associated with the proposed hybrid powertrain concept to reference and alternative powertrain configurations, facilitating a thorough evaluation of the decarbonization effectiveness and economic viability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Temperature Steam Electrolysis Process Performance and Cost Estimates

Technology readiness levels (TRLs) of electrolysis systems have dramatically increased in recent years as the interest in clean hydrogen production and decarbonization of transportation, industrial and other sectors increases across the globe. This is especially true of high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) / solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) systems which show promise of much higher system efficiencies than other more developed electrolysis technologies. This possibility of higher efficiencies of HTSE / SOEC systems has been previously assumed to be theoretically possible but in recent years it has become less theoretical and more realistic as an increasing amount of suppliers complete lab and pilot tests showing very promising results. Research in the areas of manufacturing techniques, material selection, electrode and electrolyte compositions, and balance of plant size and integration continues at a fast pace as an increasing number of suppliers both internationally and domestically become involved. The advantages of HTSE become more pronounced when HTSE is coupled with nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is because thermal energy produced by the nuclear reactor can be used in a series of heat transfer loops and heat exchangers to vaporize HTSE feedwater, which drastically improves the economics of the process. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been very involved in the research and modeling of HTSE systems for a number of years, in collaboration with other national laboratories, academia, and industry stakeholders both on the hydrogen production as well as the hydrogen demand side. The modeling completed over the years on a large variety of projects has led to a wealth of knowledge at INL including in the area of the technoeconomic assessment (TEA) of HTSE systems. TEAs include process modeling of the HTSE systems to calculate system energy requirements and equipment sizing, followed by estimation of capital and operating costs to enable calculation of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). The TEA work performed has produced incremental improvements and tuning of the methods, assumptions, models, and results of the analyses as well as providing some opportunities for validating these results. The purpose of this document is to record the current baseline HTSE analyses led by INL to show the current status of assumptions and costs of these systems. Given the rapid development of this technology, the variety of suppliers entering the space, and the increasing attention government and industry are giving to such systems, this document may be updated on a periodic basis with updated analysis and assumptions. This document compiles various analyses results and approaches completed over a period of years into a single document to be used as a baseline going forward. It represents what the INL HTSE analysis group assumes to be the internal best estimate of the current operation, costs, and landscape of the HTSE industry state of the art capability for current SOEC technology in an Nth-of-a-Kind (NOAK) plant, which in this study is defined as existence of the manufacturing capacity to support previous deployment of N = 100 count of 25 MWe modular HTSE blocks (with modular equipment component cost reductions specified as following a 95% learning curve). That said, This is a public document and as such so no proprietary data was used or included in this report. There may be HTSE suppliers that have performance specifications, and cost estimates, and test data that differ from the analysis presented in this document. This document is meant to be a best conservative estimate of the technology and not an absolute reference.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Temperature Steam Electrolysis Process Performance and Cost Estimates - DOE Hydrogen Program AMR Presentation

Technology readiness levels (TRLs) of electrolysis systems have dramatically increased in recent years as the interest in clean hydrogen production and decarbonization of transportation, industrial and other sectors increases across the globe. This is especially true of high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) / solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) systems which show promise of much higher system efficiencies than other more developed electrolysis technologies. This possibility of higher efficiencies of HTSE / SOEC systems has been previously assumed to be theoretically possible but in recent years it has become less theoretical and more realistic as an increasing amount of suppliers complete lab and pilot tests showing very promising results. Research in the areas of manufacturing techniques, material selection, electrode and electrolyte compositions, and balance of plant size and integration continues at a fast pace as an increasing number of suppliers both internationally and domestically become involved. The advantages of HTSE become more pronounced when HTSE is coupled with nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is because thermal energy produced by the nuclear reactor can be used in a series of heat transfer loops and heat exchangers to vaporize HTSE feedwater, which drastically improves the economics of the process. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been very involved in the research and modeling of HTSE systems for a number of years, in collaboration with other national laboratories, academia, and industry stakeholders both on the hydrogen production as well as the hydrogen demand side. The modeling completed over the years on a large variety of projects has led to a wealth of knowledge at INL including in the area of the technoeconomic assessment (TEA) of HTSE systems. TEAs include process modeling of the HTSE systems to calculate system energy requirements and equipment sizing, followed by estimation of capital and operating costs to enable calculation of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). The TEA work performed has produced incremental improvements and tuning of the methods, assumptions, models, and results of the analyses as well as providing some opportunities for validating these results. The purpose of this document is to record the current baseline HTSE analyses led by INL to show the current status of assumptions and costs of these systems. Given the rapid development of this technology, the variety of suppliers entering the space, and the increasing attention government and industry are giving to such systems, this document may be updated on a periodic basis with updated analysis and assumptions. This document compiles various analyses results and approaches completed over a period of years into a single document to be used as a baseline going forward. It represents what the INL HTSE analysis group assumes to be the internal best estimate of the current operation, costs, and landscape of the HTSE industry state of the art capability for current SOEC technology in an Nth-of-a-Kind (NOAK) plant, which in this study is defined as existence of the manufacturing capacity to support previous deployment of N = 100 count of 25 MWe modular HTSE blocks (with modular equipment component cost reductions specified as following a 95% learning curve). That said, this is a public document and as such so no proprietary data was used or included in this report. There may be HTSE suppliers that have performance specifications, and cost estimates, and test data that differ from the analysis presented in this document. This document is meant to be a best conservative estimate of the technology and not an absolute reference.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Prospective Impact Analysis of Novel Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

decarbonizing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law for Their Effects on Nuclear Cost Data

Decarbonizing to meet aggressive climate change mitigation targets requires energy transition within all sectors. In the industrial sector, emissions will need to decrease by 65–90% by 2050 to avert global warming greater than 1.5°C (IPCC 2022). The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), and Defense Production Act (DPA) have clean energy requirements and provide financial incentives to accelerate the use of clean energy technologies in the industrial sector. It is important to note that IRA is the most extensive action ever taken by Congress and the U.S. government to combat climate change (US CBO 2021, 2022). The energy system provisions comprise most of the estimated climate and energy support. A better understanding of those provisions in the above mentioned acts and laws is crucial to assessing their impact on the equivalent energy costs to the power plant owners (impact on net revenue in $/MWh) across different energy technologies, market deployment potential offered to different energy technologies applications, and energy system research modeling. The purpose of the report is to shed light on IRA and BIL provisions with particular attention to impacts on the nuclear industry. The report also seeks to understand potential equivalent energy cost savings for nuclear energy technologies from other laws and programs in conjunction with IRA, BIL, loan program guarantees, and DPA. The report reviews recent legislation on energy policy and translates that policy to impacts on equivalent nuclear costs for the purpose of modeling policy in energy scenarios.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electric Vehicles: A Sustainable Solution for Transportation Systems

The imperative for strong and rapid emissions reductions to mitigate global warming and enhance air quality necessitates a transition to net-zero emissions. This shift requires significant changes throughout the entire energy supply-demand ecosystems, tailored to various sectors. Transportation stands as the least-diversified energy sector and the largest source of U.S. GHG emissions. As the primary enabler for vehicle decarbonization when paired with clean electricity, electric vehicles (EVs) will play a pivotal role in the future. This talk summarizes current status of EV technologies and markets, future projections, and opportunities associated with a conversion to EV for all on-road vehicles. Moreover, EVs are poised to drive substantial growth in electricity demand and presents a unique opportunity to provide demand-side flexibility that is crucial for future renewable-dominated electricity systems. Smart integration of EVs can strengthen the grid, reducing costs and enhancing resilience.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

LiAISON (Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models) [SWR-24-01]

We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE)7. We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming. Scientific publication available here: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.2c04246

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Energy Transition: Advanced Nuclear Needed but Address Climate Vulnerabilities Now

The term “Energy Transition” is an attempt to capture an elaborate set of activities related to the modernization and decarbonization of energy grids. Performed concurrently and often in an ad hoc manner across local, state, regional and national boundaries, it is bringing chaos to what should arguably be one of the most conservatively managed of all critical infrastructure sectors. What’s more, with climate change producing an increasing tempo of extreme events, confidence in the intended resilient and redundant structure of the electric grids is likely to ebb. Even without these climate induced stressors, the nation’s electric grid was built for an earlier century. In addition to a drive towards greater efficiency via digitization and a continuing price decline in distributed energy resources (DERs), one could argue that climate change concerns are the primary driver of the energy transition. Non-CO2 emitting generation sources like wind and solar have become an important part of the overall generation fleet, albeit ones that cannot be counted upon to provide dispatchable power. Current projections indicate deployment of even larger percentages of DERs in coming years. Until far better storage capabilities arrive, the variability of wind and solar, inconsistent performance of traditional thermal generation plants, and energy delivery failures associated with natural gas pipelines will reinforce mounting reliability concerns. This pertains to both electric transmission and distribution. The recent shuttering of nuclear power plants in Germany, Japan, the US and elsewhere are also putting more downward pressure on dispatchable generation. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has roiled energy markets worldwide and forced some countries to return to coal as a primary fuel. In view circumstances such as these, it is essential that significant changes be made to policies and planning criteria, and to the standards and code on which they are based. Given the accelerating pace of extreme weather events, this needs to occur as soon as possible.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

State-by-state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal

As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward the US net-zero goal and investigate their energy-water-land-health implications at the state level. In this study, we show that achieving the net-zero goal implies significant capital turnover (170–200 billion USD/year capital investment and 16–29 billion USD/year stranded assets in the power sector), reduced water withdrawal (120–210 km 3 /year), avoided air pollution damages (220–300 billion USD/year), and expanded forests (300–500 thousand km 2 ). However, the economic and sustainability implications of achieving the net-zero goal at the state-level may not be correlated to a state's contribution to national emission reductions. Our study lays the foundations for a deeper understanding of the broader implications of the US net-zero goal to facilitate cost-effective and environmentally sustainable transitions toward that goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗