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At least 199 records · Page 11

Hydrologic applicability of satellite-based precipitation estimates for irrigation water management in the data-scarce region

Reliable precipitation estimates are crucial for planning and managing water resources, monitoring hydrologic extremes, and fulfilling irrigation water requirements. Accurate precipitation estimates are particularly challenging in complex mountain terrains, where monitoring gauges are often sparsely distributed due to their remote locations, and high installation and long-term operation costs. Recent advances in satellite-based precipitation estimates offer promising opportunities to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes and their applications for irrigation water management. Several datasets are available varying considerably in terms of their data sources, quality control methods, estimation procedure, and spatiotemporal resolutions. Choosing the most suitable dataset for a particular application is a complex task. In this study, we (1) evaluate the performance of six satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs): i) CHIRPS v2.0, ii) CMORPH v1.0, iii) ERA5, iv) IMERG v6, v) MSWEP v2.8, and vi) PERSIANN-CDR against the gauge precipitation using continuous statistical and categorical indices, (2) integrate SPEs with a calibrated semi-distributed hydrologic model to predict streamflow, and (3) demonstrate practical implications of improved streamflow prediction for irrigation water management in the central Himalayan region, Nepal. Our results illustrate that satellite-based precipitation estimates have competitive performance in capturing a wide range of rainfall characteristics, with demonstrated variability across river basins and time scales. Further, there are no significant discrepancies observed in satellite-based precipitation estimates for estimating irrigation water requirements for the three major crops (maize, wheat, and paddy) during the cropping period across the selected river basins, showing a greater promise for irrigation water management planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Fe in long-range ordered Ni 2 Cr precipitates in Ni-Cr-Fe model alloys during isothermal aging

The precipitation of new phases during long-term service at elevated temperatures is a concern for the thermal stability of engineering alloys. In Ni-Cr-based alloys, e.g., Alloy 690, the formation of long-range ordered Ni 2 Cr causes embrittlement and may impact the lifetime of nuclear power plant components. In this work, we quantify the formation and evolution of Ni 2 Cr precipitation in eleven Ni-Cr-Fe model alloys with 0, 5, 7, and 10wt % Fe contents, and with Ni/Cr atomic ratios of 1.8, 2.0, 2.2, 2.4. These alloys were isothermally aged up to 10,000h at temperatures between 330 and 475°C. The alloys were characterized by synchrotron-based x-ray diffraction and Vickers hardness testing to quantify Ni 2 Cr precipitate size, and the impact of precipitate size on the mechanical properties as a function of Fe content. After 10,000 h of aging at 475°C and 418°C, the formation of Ni 2 Cr was observed in all alloys with 0 and 5wt % Fe. After 10,000h of aging at 418°C, Ni 2 Cr precipitates were also observed in the 7wt % Fe containing Ni/Cr=2.0 sample. Further, no clear evidence of Ni 2 Cr was observed in any of the 10wt % Fe samples at any time and temperature combination. We find that the face-centered cubic matrix lattice contraction and Vickers hardness are correlated with the Ni 2 Cr formation. The greatest change in hardness and lattice contraction occurs in stoichiometric alloys (Ni/Cr=2.0) with 0wt % Fe at 475°C. The rate of change in the material properties for the 5wt % Fe alloys is reduced, however the magnitude of changes is similar to 0wt % Fe alloys. A precipitation hardening model developed for Ni-Cr alloys based on critical resolved shear stress with weakly coupled dislocations shows a clear link between Ni 2 Cr precipitate size and hardness. This trend held across all alloys with Ni 2 Cr formation regardless of Fe concentration. This important structure-property relationship can potentially help define Ni-Cr-Fe-based component lifetimes directly through an understanding of how Ni 2 Cr formation impacts mechanical properties as a function of Fe content.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ion-Specific Precipitation of Extractants Enables Rare-Earth Separation and Wastewater Remediation from Solvent Extraction of Critical Elements

The increasing demand for rare-earth elements (REEs) necessitates sustainable recovery strategies, particularly from secondary sources, such as electronic waste. Solvent extraction is the primary industrial method for REE separation; however, the unintentional dissolution of extractants into wastewater poses serious environmental risks, leading to organic contamination and process inefficiencies. Existing wastewater treatment methods struggle to remove these persistent pollutants, underscoring the need for innovative recovery approaches. Herein, we present a ligand-mediated precipitation strategy that simultaneously recovers REEs and removes dissolved extractants from solvent extraction wastewater. We show that residual extractants in the aqueous phase can selectively bind REEs, inducing their precipitation while leaving transition metals in solution. By integrating FTIR spectroscopy, EDS, XPS, EXAFS, and SAXS, we elucidate the mechanism of ion-specific precipitation and the local coordination environment of metal ions in the precipitate. Importantly, we demonstrate that the precipitated extractants can be efficiently recovered and reused, providing a closed-loop solution that enhances sustainability. Applying this method to leachates from samarium–cobalt (Sm–Co) and neodymium–iron–boron (NdFeB) mixed magnets, we achieve highly selective REE precipitation under mild conditions, demonstrating a scalable and cost-effective pathway for REE recovery, wastewater purification, and extractant recycling. In conclusion, by integrating element-specific ligand-mediated precipitation with extractant reuse, this work offers a transformative approach to REE separation that reduces the environmental impact while improving resource efficiency.

E-waste↗

Impacts of Large-Scale Urbanization and Irrigation on Summer Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States

This study investigates how urbanization and irrigation in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains affect summer precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region (MAR) using convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with/without urbanization or irrigation. In this work, a feature tracking algorithm is used to identify precipitation from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), isolated deep convection (IDC), and non-convective systems (NC). Overall, urbanization suppresses all three types of precipitation in the MAR by reducing water vapor content and convective available potential energy, while irrigation enhances IDC and NC precipitation but suppresses MCS precipitation. Examination of the MCS and IDC initiation locations indicates that irrigation suppresses MAR precipitation that is produced by MCSs initiated in the Great Plains and Midwest (GP) but enhances MAR precipitation from MCSs initiated locally within the region. Irrigation induces a mid-level cyclonic circulation anomaly centering in the Southeast, hindering the eastward propagation and development of MCSs from the GP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Southern Ocean Low Cloud and Precipitation Phase Observed During the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE)

Shallow cloud decks residing in or near the boundary layer cover a large fraction of the Southern Ocean (SO) and play a major role in determining the amount of shortwave radiation reflected back to space from this region. In this article, we examine the macrophysical characteristics and thermodynamic phase of low clouds (tops <3 km) and precipitation using ground-based ceilometer, depolarization lidar and vertically-pointing W-band radar measurements collected during the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) from April 2016 to March 2017. During MICRE, low clouds occurred ~65% of the time on average (slightly more often in austral winter than summer). About 2/3 of low clouds were cold-topped (temperatures ≤0°C). These were thicker and had higher bases on average than warm-topped clouds. 83%–88% of cold-topped low clouds were liquid phase at cloud base (depending on the season). The majority of low clouds had precipitation in the vertical range 150–250 m below cloud base, a significant fraction of which did not reach the surface. Phase characterization is limited to the period between April 2016 and November 2016. Small-particle (low-radar-reflectivity) precipitation (which dominates precipitation occurrence) was mostly liquid below-cloud, while large-particle precipitation (which dominates total accumulation) was predominantly mixed/ambiguous or ice phase. Approximately 40% of cold-topped clouds had mixed/ambiguous or ice phase precipitation below (with predominantly liquid phase cloud droplets at cloud base). Below-cloud precipitation with radar reflectivity factors below about -10 dBZ were predominantly liquid, while reflectivity factors above about 0 dBZ were predominantly ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metastable precipitation and ion–extractant transport in liquid–liquid separations of trivalent elements

The extractant-assisted transport of metal ions from aqueous to organic environments by liquid–liquid extraction has been widely used to separate and recover critical elements on an industrial scale. While current efforts focus on designing better extractants and optimizing process conditions, the mechanism that underlies ionic transport remains poorly understood. Here, we report a nonequilibrium process in the bulk aqueous phase that influences interfacial ion transport: the formation of metastable ion–extractant precipitates away from the liquid–liquid interface, separated from it by a depletion region without precipitates. Although the precipitate is soluble in the organic phase, the depletion region separates the two and ions are sequestered in a long-lived metastable state. Since precipitation removes extractants from the aqueous phase, even extractants that are sparingly soluble in water will continue to be withdrawn from the organic phase to feed the aqueous precipitation process. Solute concentrations in both phases and the aqueous pH influence the temporal evolution of the process and ionic partitioning between the precipitate and organic phase. Aqueous ion–extractant precipitation during liquid–liquid extraction provides a reaction path that can influence the extraction kinetics, which plays an important role in designing advanced processes to separate rare earths and other minerals.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Global Precipitation Experiment—A New World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity

The future state of the global water cycle and the prediction of freshwater availability for humans around the world remain among the challenges of climate research and are relevant to several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The Global Precipitation Experiment (GPEX) takes on the challenge of improving the prediction of precipitation quantity, phase, timing, and intensity, characteristics that are products of a complex integrated system. It will achieve this by leveraging existing World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) activities and community capabilities in satellite, surface-based, and airborne observations, modeling, and experimental research and by conducting new and focused activities. It was launched in October 2023 as a WCRP Lighthouse Activity. Here, we present an overview of the GPEX Science Plan that articulates the primary science questions related to precipitation measurements, process understanding, model performance and improvements, and plans for capacity development. The central phase of GPEX is the WCRP Years of Precipitation for 2–3 years with coordinated global field campaigns focusing on different storm types (atmospheric rivers, mesoscale convective systems, monsoons, and tropical cyclones, among others) over different regions and seasons. Activities are planned over the three phases (before, during, and after the Years of Precipitation) spanning a decade. These include gridded data evaluation and development, advanced modeling, enhanced understanding of processes critical to precipitation, multiscale prediction of precipitation events across scales, and capacity development. These activities will be further developed as part of the GPEX Implementation Plan.

Climate change↗

Deep Neural Network High Spatiotemporal Resolution Precipitation Estimation (Deep-STEP) Using Passive Microwave and Infrared Data

Recent developments in “headline-making” deep neural networks (DNNs), specifically convolutional neural networks (CNNs), along with advancements in computational power, open great opportunities to integrate massive amounts of real-time observations to characterize spatiotemporal structures of surface precipitation. This study aims to develop a CNN algorithm, named Deep Neural Network High Spatiotemporal Resolution Precipitation Estimation (Deep-STEP), that ingests direct satellite passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures (Tbs) at emission and scattering frequencies combined with infrared (IR) Tbs from geostationary satellites and surface information to automatically extract geospatial features related to the precipitable clouds. These features allow the end-to-end Deep-STEP algorithm to instantaneously map surface precipitation intensities with a spatial resolution of 4 km. The main advantages of Deep-STEP, as compared to current state-of-the-art techniques, are 1) it learns and estimates complex precipitation systems directly from raw measurements in near–real time, 2) it uses the automatic spatial neighborhood feature extraction approach, and 3) it fuses coarse-resolution PMW footprints with IR images to reliably retrieve surface precipitation at a high spatial resolution. We anticipate our proposed DNN algorithm to be a starting point for more sophisticated and efficient precipitation retrieval systems in terms of accuracy, fine spatial pattern detection skills, and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Water loss through evapotranspiration after precipitation events in bioenergy crops grown in similar climatic conditions

The relationship between precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) is critical to understanding water cycle related dynamics in ecosystems, including crops. Existing studies of bioenergy crops have primarily focused on annual or seasonal ET rates, with less attention given to the immediate ET response following precipitation events. This study examines the variation in ET rates in the days subsequent to precipitation events across various bioenergy crops—corn, switchgrass, and prairies—utilizing 13 years (2010–2022) of growing season data. Meteorological and eddy covariance flux data were collected from seven eddy covariance flux towers as part of the GLBRC scale-up experiment at the Kellogg Biological Station Long Term Ecological Research sites. The analysis revealed that average ET peaked the day after precipitation and declined linearly over the following days, with a statistically significant relationship (p-value = 0.00027, R2 = 0.96). Neither the type of biofuel vegetation nor the historical land use significantly influenced ET post-precipitation events (p-values = 0.53 and 0.153, respectively). Key predictors of ET following precipitation events include shortwave radiation, season, day of the year, ambient temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), long-wave radiation, precipitation amount, soil moisture, and annual variability. These findings enhance our comprehension of ET responses in bioenergy crop systems, with implications for water management in sustainable agriculture.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Implications of Changes in Water Stress and Precipitation Extremes for Cocoa Production in Côte D'ivoire and Ghana

ABSTRACT Climate change induces high variability in drought patterns and extreme precipitation indices in rainfed cocoa farming, impacting cocoa production. This study evaluated water stress, meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, and critical extreme precipitation indices in the world's two largest cocoa‐producing nations from 1981 to 2022. The results revealed a significant reduction in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), in the last three decades, with the greatest decline in the 1991–2000 and 2011–2022 periods. Ghana experienced the most significant reduction up to 15% (200 mm/year) in the last decade, attributed to a substantial decrease in wet days number (RR1) up to 25 days per year, a reduction in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) up to 6 days per year, and an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) up to 15 days per year. Moreover, there was a notable decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with reductions of up to 4 mm/day in certain areas, contributing to increased drought frequency, severity, and duration. In the most recent decade (2011–2022), particularly during the extremely dry years of 2013 and 2015, cocoa‐growing regions in Ghana (GHA) and eastern Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) experienced prolonged agricultural drought expressed by soil moisture deficit, typically extending from May to September. Additionally, large portions of central and eastern Ghana, as well as northeastern Côte d'Ivoire experienced sustained water stress, with over three consecutive months of total monthly precipitation falling below 100 mm, negatively impacting cocoa productivity. The decrease in the yield in the range of 2.5% to 37% was noted in the dry years and the following years, varying according to the country depending on the severity of the drought. Sensitivity analysis highlights cocoa yield's responsiveness to drought and water stress, particularly in specific years when water stress occurred, such as 1984,1985, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2008. Considering the observed trends in precipitation patterns and their impact on cocoa production, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of future precipitation patterns due to climate change. To address this challenge effectively, our study underscores the importance of identifying and closely monitoring regions currently facing water stress, as determined by precipitation and drought indicators. Over the analysed period (1981–2022), we have noted shifts in the distribution of water‐stressed areas, highlighting the dynamic nature of this issue. Consequently, we advocate for a targeted approach to implement cocoa supplementary irrigation in consistently water‐stressed regions.

Obahoundje, Salomon [International Water Managemen↗

Microstructural evolution in a precipitate-hardened (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 multi-principal element alloy during high-pressure torsion

Multi-principal element alloys demonstrate high strength, thermal stability, and irradiation resistance, making them excellent candidate materials for applications in nuclear reactors and other harsh environments. Some studies have examined the use of high-pressure torsion to strengthen MPEAs through grain size reduction and strain hardening. However, no studies have investigated the effect of HPT on secondary phases (precipitates) within an MPEA. Two alloys, (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 containing Ni(Ti, Al) B2 phase, and CrFe σ phase, and single-phase Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 , were fabricated by casting and heat treatment. Both alloys were then processed with HPT to study microstructural evolution. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) were used to characterize the alloys before and after HPT processing. HPT processing produced a nanocrystalline structure in both alloys, but (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 exhibited a significantly smaller grain size and higher dislocation density than Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 , with corresponding higher hardness. Before HPT, the (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 alloy consisted of large grain (~ 400 μm) and precipitates, including B2 of ~ 38 μm average size, B2 of ~ 0.7 μm average size, and small amounts of σ of ~ 1.5 μm average size. After HPT, the larger B2 precipitates were decreased in size and volume fraction, while the smaller B2 precipitates were completely dissolved; the σ precipitates appeared unaffected by HPT, likely due to their much higher hardness. Finally, observation of the B2 precipitate distribution along radial distance indicates that the strain caused the precipitates to fracture at intermediate strain (γ = 125) and dissolve at high strain (γ = 280).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The combined effects of Mg 2+ and Sr 2+ incorporation during CaCO 3 precipitation and crystal growth

Calcite (CaCO 3 ) composition and properties are defined by the chemical environment in which CaCO 3 forms. However, a complete understanding of the relationship between aqueous chemistry during calcite precipitation and resulting chemical and physical CaCO 3 properties remains elusive; therefore, we present an investigation into the coupled effects of divalent cations Sr 2+ and Mg 2+ on CaCO 3 precipitation and subsequent crystal growth. Through chemical analysis of the aqueous phases and microscopy of the resulting calcite phases in compliment with density functional theory calculations, we elucidate the relationship between crystal growth and the resulting composition (elemental and isotopic) of calcite. The results of this experimental and modeling work suggest that Mg 2+ and Sr 2+ have cation-specific impacts that inhibit calcite crystal growth, including: (1) Sr 2+ incorporates more readily into calcite than Mg 2+ (D Sr > D Mg ), and increasing [Sr 2+ ] t or [Mg 2+ ] t increases D Sr ; (2) the inclusion of Mg 2+ into structure leads to a reduction in the calcite unit cell volume, whereas Sr 2+ leads to an expansion; (3) the inclusion of both Mg 2+ and Sr 2+ results in a distribution of unit cell impacts based on the relative positions of the Sr 2+ and Mg 2+ in the lattice. These experiments were conducted at saturation indices of CaCO 3 of ~4.1, favoring rapid precipitation. This rapid precipitation resulted in observed Sr isotope fractionation confirming Sr isotopic fractionation is dependent upon the precipitation rate. We further note that the precipitation and growth of calcite favors the incorporation of the lighter 86 Sr isotope over the heavier 87 Sr isotope, regardless of the initial solution conditions, and the degree of fractionation increases with D Sr . In sum, these results demonstrate the impact of solution environment to influence the incorporation behavior and crystal growth behavior of calcite. These factors are important to understand in order to effectively use geochemical signatures resulting from calcite precipitation or dissolution to gain specific information.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A discrete dislocation dynamics study of precipitate bypass mechanisms in nickel-based superalloys

Order strengthening in nickel-based superalloys is associated with the extra stress required for dislocations to bypass the $\gamma'$ precipitates distributed in the $\gamma$ matrix. Depending on the operating conditions and microstructure, a rich variety of bypass mechanism has been identified, with various shearing and Orowan looping processes gradually giving way to climb bypass as the operating conditions change from the low/intermediate temperatures and high stress regime, to the high temperature and low stress regime. When anti phase boundary (APB) shearing and Orowan looping mechanisms operate, the classical picture is that, at for a given volume fraction, the bypass mechanism changes from shearing to looping with increased particle size and within a broad coexistence size window. Another possibility, which is supported by indirect experimental evidence, is that a third “hybrid” transition mechanism may operate. Here, in this paper we use discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations to study dislocation bypass mechanisms in Ni-based superalloys. We develop a new method to compute generalized stacking fault forces in DDD simulations, based on a concept borrowed from complex analysis and known as the winding number of a closed curve about a point. We use this method to study the mechanisms of bypass of a square lattice of spherical $\gamma'$ precipitates by $a/2\langle110\rangle$ {111} edge dislocations, as a function of the precipitates volume fraction and size. We show that not only the hybrid mechanism is possible, but also that it operates as the transition mechanism between the shearing and looping regimes over a wide range of precipitates volume fraction and radii. Based on our simulation results, we propose a simple model for the strength of this mechanism. We also consider the effects of a $\gamma$/$\gamma'$ lattice misfit on the bypass mechanisms, which we approximate by an additional precipitate stress computed according to Eshelby’s inclusion theory. We show that in the shearing and hybrid looping-shearing regimes, a lattice misfit generally results in an increased bypass stress. For sufficiently high lattice misfit, the critical bypass configuration in attractive dislocation-precipitates interactions changes dramatically, and the bypass stress is controlled by the pinning of the trailing dislocation on the exit side of the precipitates, similar to what has been reported in the high-temperature creep literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Coupling computational thermodynamics with density-function-theory based calculations to design L12 precipitates in Fe Ni based alloys

Achieving a high-volume fraction of thermodynamically stable L12-type precipitates that are resistant to coarsening is of great importance for the development of low-cost FeNi based austenitic steels. With the aid of computational thermodynamics, this work designed two model alloys: Fe-37.4Ni-6.1Al-2.9Ti (FNAT) and Fe-45.2Ni-5.9Al-8.5Si (FNAS). Both alloys were designed to contain a similar amount of L1 2 precipitate in Fe-Ni matrix without forming other precipitates. Density-Function-Theory (DFT) calculation was coupled with computational thermodynamics to predict the critical radius at which the precipitates change shape from spherical to cuboidal. The calculation results suggest that critical radius for the FNAT alloy is about two orders of magnitude larger than that for the FeNiAlSi alloy. Phase stability and morphology of the L1 2 precipitates in these two alloys were experimentally investigated through X-ray diffraction, atom probe tomography, and scanning and transmission electron microscopy. The L1 2 precipitates in the FeNiAlSi system were found to be cuboidal and rod shaped, with much larger size than the spherical ones in the FeNiAlTi system, agreeing with the calculation results. This work suggested that coupling computational thermodynamics with DFT calculations can be reliably used to design L1 2 precipitates in FeNi based alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Insights into the Biogeochemical Cycling of Cobalt: Precipitation and Transformation of Cobalt Sulfide Nanoparticles under Low-Temperature Aqueous Conditions

Cobalt sulfide precipitates, key phases in the natural biogeochemical cycling of cobalt and in relevant remediation and resource recovery processes, remain poorly defined under low-temperature aqueous conditions. Here, we systematically studied the Co-(Fe) sulfides precipitated and aged in environmentally relevant solutions, defined by different combinations of pH, initial cobalt-to-iron ratios ([Co] aq /[Fe] aq ), with/without S 0 , and the presence/absence of sulfate-reducing bacteria. The initial abiogenic precipitates without Fe aq were composed exclusively of amorphous Co-sulfide hydrates (CoS· x H 2 O), whose estimated log K* was three orders of magnitude higher than that previously reported for crystalline Co-sulfides. The addition of S 0 , in combination with acidic pH and elevated temperature (60°C), resulted in the recrystallization of the amorphous precipitates into nanocrystalline jaipurite (hexagonal CoS) within one month (which otherwise remained stable for up to two months). In the presence of Fe(II) aq , the abiogenic precipitates were composed of more crystalline Co-sulfide hydrates and/or Co-rich mackinawite, the exact phase being dependent on the specific [Co] aq /[Fe(II)] aq . The biogenic precipitates displayed higher crystallinity for Co sulfides (up to the formation of nanocrystalline cobalt pentlandite, Co 9 S 8 ) and lower crystallinity for Co-rich mackinawite, suggestive of mineral-specific bacterial interaction. The revealed precipitation and transformation pathways of Co-(Fe-)sulfides in this study allows for predicting the prevalent Co-bearing phases in various natural and engineered environments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linking Deep and Shallow Convective Mass Fluxes via an Assumed Entrainment Distribution in CAM5‐CLUBB: Parameterization and Simulated Precipitation Variability

Abstract We modify the Zhang‐McFarlane (ZM) deep convection scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 to couple it with a unified parameterization for boundary‐layer turbulence and shallow convection, that is, Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB). By assuming a lognormal distribution of entrainment rate across the entire moist convective regimes, we link mass fluxes between shallow and deep convection, which are partitioned by the entrainment rate of the shallowest deep convective plume. Hence, a new deep convective closure is established which is coupled to the sub‐grid vertical motion variability in CLUBB. The convection feedback (or memory) effects are also considered to decrease the entrainment spectrum width and enhance the vertical velocity variability that further affect deep convection. Results show that the revised scheme improves the precipitation simulations in terms of the mean state and variability at various timescales, such as the alleviated double‐intertropical convergence zone and more realistic simulations of the seasonal variation of monsoon precipitation over East Asia, Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and precipitation diurnal phase propagations downstream of large terrains. The improvements are still seen in many aspects such as the mean‐state precipitation when turning off the convection feedback impacts in the revised scheme, emphasizing the benefits of using the modified mass‐flux closure. However, the convection feedbacks have considerable effects on the precipitation diurnal cycle simulations over regions with late‐afternoon precipitation peaks. Overall, the revised scheme provides a unified treatment for sub‐grid vertical motions across regimes of boundary‐layer turbulence, shallow convection, and deep convection, leading to better‐simulated precipitation at various timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Porosity-Permeability Evolution During Simultaneous Mineral Dissolution and Precipitation

Permeability in reactive porous media evolves in complex ways that are hard to predict. Macroscopic empirical equations are often used to estimate permeability evolution but fail to reflect the impact of pore scale reactions on permeability. This work aims to understand the evolution of permeability in systems where mineral dissolution and precipitation occur simultaneously. Pore network models are used for permeability simulation of a Paluxy sandstone using pore and pore-throat size distributions from the analysis of X-ray CT images. Pore and pore-throat radii are increased and decreased to reflect the effects of dissolution and precipitation reactions. Varying spatial distributions of reactions are simulated and the resulting porosity and permeability values compared with commonly used macroscopic equations. It is observed that when dissolution occurs at the inlet and precipitation at the outlet, porosity increases while permeability decreases. Similar results are also observed in the respective opposite scenario where precipitation occurs at the inlet and dissolution at the outlet. When dissolution and precipitation reactions are randomly distributed throughout the network, porosity increases with little change in permeability that is not captured by the empirical equations. When reactions are controlled by pore and pore-throat sizes, such as dissolution occurring in pores and pore-throats of small size and precipitation in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability decrease. When precipitation occurs in pores and pore-throats of smaller size and dissolution in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability increase and is described relatively well by the Verma-Pruess porosity-permeability equation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗