Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “predictive modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1971

Crime prediction modeling

A study of techniques for the prediction of crime in the City of Los Angeles was conducted. Alternative approaches to crime prediction (causal, quasicausal, associative, extrapolative, and pattern-recognition models) are discussed, as is the environment within which predictions were desired for the immediate application. The decision was made to use time series (extrapolative) models to produce the desired predictions. The characteristics of the data and the procedure used to choose equations for the extrapolations are discussed. The usefulness of different functional forms (constant, quadratic, and exponential forms) and of different parameter estimation techniques (multiple regression and multiple exponential smoothing) are compared, and the quality of the resultant predictions is assessed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1984

Prediction Model for the Life of Nickel-cadmium Batteries in Geosynchronous Orbit Satellites

A mathematical model is described which predicts the service life of nickel-cadmium batteries designed for geosynchronous orbit satellites. Regression analysis technique is used to analyze orbital data on second generation trickle charged batteries. The model gives average cell voltage as a function of design parameters, operating parameters and time. The voltage model has the properties of providing a good fit to the data, good predictive capability, and agreement with known battery performance characteristics. Average cell voltage can be predicted to within 0.02 volts for up to 8 years. This modeling shows that these batteries will operate reliably for 10 years. Third-generation batteries are expected to operate even longer.

Engleman, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model

This is the first report of the first phase of a 3-year program. Its objectives are to determine the predominant modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system, then to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The first task (Task I) is to determine the major failure mechanisms. Presently, bond coat oxidation and bond coat creep are being evaluated as potential TBC failure mechanisms. The baseline TBC system consists of an air plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 top coat, a low pressure plasma sprayed NiCrAlY bond coat, and a Rene'80 substrate. Pre-exposures in air and argon combined with thermal cycle tests in air and argon are being utilized to evaluate bond coat oxidation as a failure mechanism. Unexpectedly, the specimens pre-exposed in argon failed before the specimens pre-exposed in air in subsequent thermal cycles testing in air. Four bond coats with different creep strengths are being utilized to evaluate the effect of bond coat creep on TBC degradation. These bond coats received an aluminide overcoat prior to application of the top coat to reduce the differences in bond coat oxidation behavior. Thermal cycle testing has been initiated. Methods have been selected for measuring tensile strength, Poisson's ratio, dynamic modulus and coefficient of thermal expansion both of the bond coat and top coat layers.

Hillery, R. V.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Evolution of creep-fatigue life prediction models

The evolution of high-temperature, creep-fatigue, life-prediction methods used for cyclic crack initiation is traced from inception in the late 1940s. The methods reviewed are material models as opposed to structural life prediction models. Material life models are used by both structural durability analysts and by material scientists. The latter use micromechanistic models as guidance to improve a material's crack initiation resistance. Nearly one hundred approaches and their variations have been proposed to date. This proliferation poses a problem in deciding which method is most appropriate for a given application. Approaches have been identified as being combinations of fourteen different classifications. This review is intended to aid both developers and users of high-temperature fatigue life prediction methods by providing a background from which choices can be made.

Halford, Gary R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Predictive Control Study for an Electrified Turbofan Engine

A control sensitivity study is conducted for electrified aircraft propulsion concepts using a publicly available turbofan engine simulation. A Proportional-Integral (PI) controller serves as a baseline for comparison against an advanced Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach. MPC is used in the control scheme to allow for subsystem coordination of engine and electric power loads. The electrified turbofan engine includes electric machines to augment the amount of torque being applied to the spools of the engine during transient phases of operation. Power augmentation allows for energy to be stored or exhausted in a manner that increases the fuel efficiency of the engine, reducing aircraft emissions and noise. The study compares the fan speed, high pressure compressor stall margin, and low pressure compressor stall margin against the baseline PI control system, an MPC system without electric machines, and an MPC system with electric machines. The MPC system with electric machines is optimized using the sample time, control horizon and prediction horizon. The MPC design provided a stable damped response as desired and allowed operability margins to be maintained

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗
NASA NTRS1994

Image Discrimination Models Predict Object Detection in Natural Backgrounds

Object detection involves looking for one of a large set of object sub-images in a large set of background images. Image discrimination models only predict the probability that an observer will detect a difference between two images. In a recent study based on only six different images, we found that discrimination models can predict the relative detectability of objects in those images, suggesting that these simpler models may be useful in some object detection applications. Here we replicate this result using a new, larger set of images. Fifteen images of a vehicle in an other-wise natural setting were altered to remove the vehicle and mixed with the original image in a proportion chosen to make the target neither perfectly recognizable nor unrecognizable. The target was also rotated about a vertical axis through its center and mixed with the background. Sixteen observers rated these 30 target images and the 15 background-only images for the presence of a vehicle. The likelihoods of the observer responses were computed from a Thurstone scaling model with the assumption that the detectabilities are proportional to the predictions of an image discrimination model. Three image discrimination models were used: a cortex transform model, a single channel model with a contrast sensitivity function filter, and the Root-Mean-Square (RMS) difference of the digital target and background-only images. As in the previous study, the cortex transform model performed best; the RMS difference predictor was second best; and last, but still a reasonable predictor, was the single channel model. Image discrimination models can predict the relative detectabilities of objects in natural backgrounds.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Verification by remote sensing of an oil slick movement prediction model

The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT, aircraft, ships, and air-dropped current drogues were deployed to determine current circulation and to track oil slick movement on four different dates in Delaware Bay. The results were used to verify a predictive model for oil slicks given their size, location, tidal stage (current), weather (wind), and nature of crude. Both LANDSAT satellites provided valuable data on gross circulation patterns and convergent coastal fronts which by capturing oil slicks significantly influence their movement and dispersion.

Klemas, V.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Spaceflight Cardiovascular Disease Risk using the Clinical Prediction Model Astro-Charm and the NASA Radiation Risk Model

Exposure to space radiation and other spaceflight hazards may pose an increased risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) during and after spaceflight [1], that should be quantified to plan future long-duration space missions such as the flight to Mars. The first CVD clinical prediction models (CPMs) for individuals were developed by the Framingham Heart Study investigators in the 1960’s. Since then, many CPMs have been developed and refined. The CPMs consider cardiovascular risk factors such as blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol, and smoking. As there is a relationship between radiation-induced CVD risk and the background (non-exposed) CVD risk, it is possible to use CPMs to calculate a personalized risk for astronauts.

I. Plante↗
NASA NTRS1997

Fade Dynamics and Its Evolution: The Other Part of the Acts Rain Prediction Model

The inception of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project has required as similarly advanced statistical mathematical modeling formalism to describe the behavior of the 30/20 GHz links emanating to and from the earth terminals through the deleterious effects of the earth's atmosphere. The resulting ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model has been thoroughly described in [Manning, 1990]. In the present paper, the basic rudiments of this model will be reviewed; Section 1 covers the static or time-independent portion of the model and Section 2 covers the dynamic of time-dependent portion. The results of Section 2 are then applied to a new approximate solution of the famous problem of the time duration tau of a fade of random process below some threshold. This is known as the fade duration. The new approximate solution was published in Russian [Denisenko] and, unfortunately, was never published into English. Hence, this work is restated following [Denisenko] in Section 3 which is immediately applied to the random rain fade process. The results for all five ACTS propagation sites as well as Tampa, FL are then given.

Manning, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Fade Dynamics and its Evolution: The Other Part of the ACTS Rain Prediction Model

The inception of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project has required a similarly advanced statistical mathematical modeling formalism to describe the behavior of the 30/20 GHz links emanating to and from the earth terminals through the deleterious effects of the earth's atmosphere. The resulting ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model has been thoroughly described in (Manning). In the present paper, the basic rudiments of this model will be reviewed; Section 1 covers the static or time-independent portion of the model and Section 2 covers the dynamic or time-dependent portion. The results of Section 2 are then applied to a new approximate solution of the famous problem of the time duration tau of a fade of a random process below some threshold. This is known as the fade duration. The new approximate solution was published in Russian (Denisenko) and, unfortunately, was never published into English. Hence, this work is restated following (Denisenko) in Section 3 which is immediately applied to the random rain fade process. The results for all five ACTS propagation sites as well as Tampa, FL are then given.

Manning, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Results from baseline tests of the SPRE 1 and comparison with code model predictions

The space power research engine (SPRE), a free piston Stirling engine with linear alternator, is being tested at NASA-Lewis as a candidate for high capacity space power. Results are presented of baseline engine tests at design and off-design operating conditions. The test results are compared with code model prediction.

Cairelli, James E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Results from baseline tests of the SPRE I and comparison with code model predictions

The space power research engine (SPRE), a free-piston Stirling engine with linear alternator, is being tested at NASA-Lewis as a candidate for high capacity space power. Results are presented of baseline engine tests at design and off-design operating conditions. The test results are compared with code model prediction.

Cairelli, James E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-predictive optimal control of ferrofluidic microrobots in three-dimensional space

Ferrofluid microrobots have emerged as promising tools for minimally invasive medical procedures. Their unique properties to navigate complex fluids and reach otherwise inaccessible regions of the human body have enabled new applications in targeted drug delivery, tissue engineering, and diagnostics. Here, this paper proposes a model-predictive controller for the external magnetic manipulation of ferrofluid microrobots in three dimensions (3D). The internal optimization routine of the controller determines appropriate changes in the applied electromagnetic field to minimize the deviation between the actual and desired trajectories of the microrobot. A linear system governing locomotion is derived and used as the equality constraints of the optimization problems associated with the feedback index. In addition to ferrofluid droplets, the controller presented in this work may be applied to other magnetically-pulled microrobots. Several experiments are performed to validate the controller and showcase its ability to adapt to changes in system parameters such as the desired tracking trajectory and the size, orientation, deformation, and velocity of the microrobot. The accuracy of the controller is analyzed for each experiment, and the average error is found to be within 0.25 mm for small velocities. An additional experiment is performed to demonstrate significant improvement over a PID controller that is optimally tuned using Bayesian optimization. The results presented in this paper suggest that the proposed control algorithm could enable new microrobotic capabilities in minimally invasive medical procedures, lab-on-a-chip applications, and microfluidics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Comparative Study of foF2 Measurements with IRI-2007 Model Predictions During Extended Solar Minimum

The unusually deep and extended solar minimum of cycle 2324 made it very difficult to predict the solar indices 1 or 2 years into the future. Most of the predictions were proven wrong by the actual observed indices. IRI gets its solar, magnetic, and ionospheric indices from an indices file that is updated twice a year. In recent years, due to the unusual solar minimum, predictions had to be corrected downward with every new indices update. In this paper we analyse how much the uncertainties in the predictability of solar activity indices affect the IRI outcome and how the IRI values calculated with predicted and observed indices compared to the actual measurements.Monthly median values of F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) derived from the ionosonde measurements at the mid-latitude ionospheric station Juliusruh were compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007) model predictions. The analysis found that IRIprovides reliable results that compare well with actual measurements, when the definite (observed and adjusted) indices of solar activityare used, while IRI values based on earlier predictions of these indices noticeably overestimated the measurements during the solar minimum.One of the principal objectives of this paper is to direct attention of IRI users to update their solar activity indices files regularly.Use of an older index file can lead to serious IRI overestimations of F-region electron density during the recent extended solar minimum.

Ionosphere↗
NASA NTRS1992

Model predicts rain attenuation in satellite links

A model is developed which is capable of predicting the performance of satellite communication systems without complicated mathematics and case-specific physical assumptions while still embodying a general understanding of the structure and properties of rain. The Simple Attenuation Model (SAM) allows the prediction of earth-space rain attenuation at any location in the world for any elevation angle above a few degrees from 10 to 35 GHz. Comparisons of SAM predictions and measured data are presented for selected sites.

Stutzman, Warren L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Stall Recovery Guidance Using Fast Model Predictive Control

Based on a detailed analysis of recent loss-of-control events, the Aircraft State Awareness Joint Safety Analysis Team has identified the need to develop algorithms and display strategies to provide control guidance for recovery from approach-to-stall or stall. In order to be effective, such guidance should enhance the pilots ability to execute the Federal Aviation Administrations recommended stall recovery procedure. This paper explores the use of a fast model predictive control algorithm that determines near optimal recovery guidance, which quantifies the aircraft configuration and situation dependent recovery information required to maximize the effectiveness of the recovery. This information includes the magnitude of the initial pitch down maneuver, the specific amount of airspeed and thrust needed before pulling out of the recovery dive, as well as the maximum pitch-up rate that can be sustained without causing a secondary stall. The algorithm was integrated and tested with an in-house desktop simulator that implements the General Transport Aircraft model and the associated stall aircraft dynamics. Preliminary results are presented to demonstrate the use of the proposed approach as a recovery aid for pilots.

predictive control↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Coupled Probabilistic Wake Vortex and Aircraft Response Prediction Model

Wake vortex spacing standards along with weather and runway occupancy time, restrict terminal area throughput and impose major constraints on the overall capacity and efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS). For more than two decades, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been conducting research on characterizing wake vortex behavior in order to develop fast-time wake transport and decay prediction models. It is expected that the models can be used in the systems level design of advanced air traffic management (ATM) concepts that safely increase the capacity of the NAS. It is also envisioned that at a later stage of maturity, these models could potentially be used operationally, in groundbased spacing and scheduling systems as well as on the flight deck.

Gloudemans, Thijs↗