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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Active Learning for Solvability Prediction in Power Systems

Traditional methods for solvability region analysis can only have inner approximations with inconclusive conservatism and handle limited types of power flow models. In this letter, we propose a deep active learning framework for solvability prediction in power systems. Compared with passive learning where the training is performed after all instances are labeled, active learning selects most informative instances to be labeled and therefore significantly reduces the size of the labeled dataset for training. In the active learning framework, the acquisition functions, which correspond to different sampling strategies, are defined in terms of the on-the-fly posterior probability from the classifier. First, the IEEE 39-bus system is employed to validate the proposed framework, where a two-dimensional case is illustrated to visualize the effectiveness of the sampling method followed by the high-dimensional numerical experiments. Then, the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system is used to validate the performance on large-scale power systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging System Dynamics to Predict the Commercialization Success of Emerging Energy Technologies: Lessons from Wind Energy

The United States urgently needs to tackle the climate crisis while enhancing energy security and resiliency. The complexity of the U.S. energy system, with its interconnected elements, makes predicting future states challenging, especially with the introduction of novel energy systems like wind, solar, clean hydrogen, and advanced nuclear technologies. Modern systems engineering methods and tools can provide deeper insights into these dynamics and future behaviors. This research aims to develop a comprehensive model that captures the main elements and behaviors of new energy technologies within the existing energy system. We hypothesized that the market uptake of novel energy systems is influenced by multiple diverse factors, such as technological learning, availability of resources, and economic incentives; examined the history of electricity generation using land-based wind technologies; and developed a system dynamics model to investigate the relationships between capacity growth and influencing factors, both internal and external. The developed model yielded outcomes that confirmed the hypothesized dynamics of wind energy system diffusion through a quantitative comparison of installed capacity and highlighted the significant influence of resource availability, federal incentives (production tax credits), and technological learning on capacity growth and cost reduction. This research aims to support informed decision-making for investments in novel energy systems and aid in developing effective policies for technology deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive model using artificial neural network to design phase change material-based ocean thermal energy harvesting systems for powering uncrewed underwater vehicles

Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) are a major beneficiary of the phase change material (PCM)-based ocean thermal energy harvesting technology for their mission needs. However, this technology relies on different parameters and energy conversion steps that could be critical to the general energy generation efficiency. Sea trials showed that the design performed lower than their laboratory design specifications. This underperformance results from different factors, mainly the UUV’s trajectory, travel time, underwater ocean currents, temperature fluctuations, and biofouling on the heat exchanger due to long term underwater operations. Therefore, there exists a need to continuously monitor the ambient energy harvesting system and predict system performance, for mission planning purposes. Two major parameters influencing the energy harvesting system include the final pressure inside the hydraulic energy storage vessel or accumulator, and the electrical load value. Here, this work focuses on the hydraulic to electric energy conversion system. Therefore, a combination of numerical model and experimental testing is used to develop a predictive model using artificial neural network using MATLAB. After validation with experimental testing, 1000 data samples obtained from the numerical model are used to train the ANN. Compared to the experimental results, the developed ANN model can predict in less than a second the designed benchtop system’s total efficiency with less than 15 percent maximum error range. This predictive model development represents a cost-effective way for optimization and a computational energy efficient mode aboard UUVs for mission planning for deployed UUVs using PCM-based ocean thermal energy harvesting technology.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

System and method for predicting the presence of rare earth elements

A system for predicting rare earth elements (REEs) in a feedstock sample includes a measurement instrument that records a measurement for a sample, a processor communicatively coupled to the measuring instrument, and a memory communicatively coupled to the processor and containing machine readable instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the processor to correlate the measurement series using a model; and predict a presence of one or more rare earth element based at least in part on the correlation. A method for predicting rare earth elements includes measuring feedstock samples via XRF or PGNAA, to generate a measurements of elements of interest with a lower atomic weight than REEs; correlating the measurements with a model; and predicting a presence of one or more rare earth elements based at least in part on the correlation.

Fuka, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2023

Methods and systems for coordinating predictive cruise control, engine-off coasting, and hybrid power split

The enclosed disclosure relates to hybrid vehicles and systems with an engine, a drivetrain with a clutch and a transmission, an electric machine, and a controller. The controller receives lookahead information within a lookahead window and present state information of the hybrid vehicle. The controller determines a predicted coasting opportunity exceeding a predetermined threshold within the lookahead window and determines a cruise control reference speed, a power split between the engine and the electric machine, and a timing of enabling engine-off coasting during the coasting opportunity. The controller deactivates the engine and disengages the clutch at a start of the coasting opportunity when the engine-off coasting is enabled.

Gupta, Rohinish↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predictive valve control system

A pressure control system may include a plurality of inflatable objects, each of the inflatable objects having a respective pressure sensor and a respective inflation valve, wherein each of the inflation valves has a behavior profile predictive of an amount of current used by the valve when operated. A valve controller of the system may have a pressure management circuit that receives information from the pressure sensors and is configured to automatically maintain a respective selected pressure in each of the inflatable objects by issuing commands to operate the inflation valves. An electrical current management circuit of the valve controller may be configured to predict, based on the valve behavior profiles, what effect the command would have on a total current usage, when executed, and automatically prevent any command that would cause the total current usage to exceed a maximum allowable current.

Piraner, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating Crystallization in a Colloidal System Using State Predictive Information Bottleneck Based Enhanced Sampling

Here, we investigate crystal nucleation in supersaturated colloid suspensions using enhanced molecular dynamics simulations augmented with machine learning techniques. The simulations reveal that crystallization in the model colloidal system studied here, with particles interacting through a repulsive screened Coulomb Yukawa potential, proceeds from vapor to dense liquid droplet to crystalline phases across multiple high barriers. Employing a one-dimensional reaction coordinate derived from the State Predictive Information Bottleneck framework, our simulations capture back-and-forth phase transitions across multiple barriers effectively in biased metadynamics simulations. We obtain relative free energy differences between different phases and also quantify the roles of different molecular level features in driving the phase changes.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Online System ID for Predicting Power Plant Performance Throughout Cycling Operations

This presentation represents a review of the background research conducted by NETL to apply artificial intelligence, i.e. auto-recursive algorithms and data analytics to detect leaks in utility scale boilers and laboratory power systems. The new project being funded by the Advanced Sensors and Controls Program is part of the Field Work Proposal funded in EY21 as Task 53 to demonstrate the application of these techniques on a utility scale power system.

Shadle, Lawrence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revolutionizing observations and predictability of Arctic system dynamics through next-generation dense, heterogeneous and intelligent wireless sensor networks with embedded AI

The Arctic region is a complex and dynamic system, where changes in temperature and partitioning between water in solid, liquid and vapor phase are fundamentally reshaping hydro-biogeochemical fluxes from the bedrock to the atmosphere. The increasing temperature and frequency of extreme heat, precipitation and fire events (Wang et al., 2017; Meredith et al., 2019) have critical consequences for the Arctic ecosystems and people, as well as for the global climate system. Although many observational and remote sensing activities have been on-going, detailed ecosystem processes – particularly related to controls on and impacts of permafrost thaw – are difficult to detect or measure. To improve the understanding and prediction of these extreme events and their consequences, we need a revolution in the way we collect ground-based observations from hillslope to pan-Arctic scales and couple them with satellite imagery and models to deliver rich, actionable, and scale-appropriate data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

DAWN: Dashboard for Agricultural Water Use and Nutrient Management—A Predictive Decision Support System to Improve Crop Production in a Changing Climate

Abstract Climate change presents huge challenges to the already-complex decisions faced by U.S. agricultural producers, as seasonal weather patterns increasingly deviate from historical tendencies. Under USDA funding, a transdisciplinary team of researchers, extension experts, educators, and stakeholders is developing a climate decision support Dashboard for Agricultural Water use and Nutrient management (DAWN) to provide Corn Belt farmers with better predictive information. DAWN’s goal is to provide credible, usable information to support decisions by creating infrastructure to make subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts accessible. DAWN uses an integrated approach to 1) engage stakeholders to coproduce a decision support and information delivery system; 2) build a coupled modeling system to represent and transfer holistic systems knowledge into effective tools; 3) produce reliable forecasts to help stakeholders optimize crop productivity and environmental quality; and 4) integrate research and extension into experiential, transdisciplinary education. This article presents DAWN’s framework for integrating climate–agriculture research, extension, and education to bridge science and service. We also present key challenges to the creation and delivery of decision support, specifically in infrastructure development, coproduction and trust building with stakeholders, product design, effective communication, and moving tools toward use.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bridging Time-series Image Phenotyping and Functional–Structural Plant Modeling to Predict Adventitious Root System Architecture

Root system architecture (RSA) is an important measure of how plants navigate and interact with the soil environment. However, current methods in studying RSA must make tradeoffs between precision of data and proximity to natural conditions, with root growth in germination papers providing accessibility and high data resolution. Functional–structural plant models (FSPMs) can overcome this tradeoff, though parameterization and evaluation of FSPMs are traditionally based in manual measurements and visual comparison. Here, we applied a germination paper system to study the adventitious RSA and root phenology of Populus trichocarpa stem cuttings using time-series image-based phenotyping augmented by FSPM. We found a significant correlation between timing of root initiation and thermal time at cutting collection (P value = 0.0061, R 2 = 0.875), but little correlation with RSA. We also present a use of RhizoVision [1] for automatically extracting FSPM parameters from time series images and evaluating FSPM simulations. A high accuracy of the parameterization was achieved in predicting 2D growth with a sensitivity rate of 83.5%. This accuracy was lost when predicting 3D growth with sensitivity rates of 38.5% to 48.7%, while overall accuracy varied with phenotyping methods. Despite this loss in accuracy, the new method is amenable to high throughput FSPM parameterization and bridges the gap between advances in time-series phenotyping and FSPMs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Modular System for Increasing Predictiveness for Extreme Climate Predictions

We know that climate change is poised to reshape our world, but we lack clear enough predictions about precisely how. The preponderance of these changes is associated with human activity, specifically the emission of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases. Problematically, projections of climate change continue to be marred by unacceptably large uncertainties which hamper informed decision-making and cost society a chance to adapt proactively and effectively. These uncertainties stem from deficiencies in predictions of future greenhouse gas emissions, but also from inaccuracies in the representation of the physical models used to predict the climate response to such emissions. The uncertainties in projections associated with the inaccurate representation of climate physics, chemistry and biology are similar to those that plagued the first global climate models developed fifty years ago, despite more than a factor 10 8 increase in computer performance. Our transformational question is then, how can the accuracy of climate projections be dramatically improved by applying recent advances in the computational and data sciences to train the models with the wealth of data being constantly collected about the ongoing changes in the climate system?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Methods for Causal Discovery in Hydrometeorological Systems

Understanding causal relations is of utmost importance in hydrology and climate research for systems identification, prediction, and understanding systems behavior in a changing climate. Traditionally, researchers in hydrometeorology attempted to study causal questions by conducting controlled experiments using numerical models. This approach, however, in most cases of interest provides uncertain results because the models are approximate representation of the natural system. An alternative approach that has recently drawn significant attention in several fields is to infer causal relations from purely observational data. It possesses several traits to its utility particularly in hydrometeorology due to the rapid accumulation of in situ and remotely sensed data records. The first objective of this study is to present a brief description of four causal discovery methods (Granger causality, Transfer Entropy, graph-based algorithms, and Convergent Cross Mapping) with special emphasis on the assumptions on which they are built. Second, using synthetic data generated from a hydrological model, we assess their performance in retrieving causal information taking into account sensitivity to sample size and presence of noise. Last, we use causal analysis to examine and formulate hypotheses on causal drivers of evapotranspiration in a shrubland region during summer and winter seasons. An interpretation of the hypotheses based on canopy seasonal dynamics and evapotranspiration processes is presented. It is hoped that the results presented here can be useful in guiding researchers studying hydrometeorological systems as to which causal method is most appropriate to the characteristics of the system under study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strong Red Noise Ocean Forcing on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Assessed from Surface Heat Flux: Theory and Application

The role of ocean forcing on Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is assessed from the (downward) heat flux–SST relation in the framework of a new stochastic climate theory forced by red noise ocean forcing. Previous studies suggested that atmospheric forcing drives SST variability from monthly to interannual time scales, with a positive heat flux–SST correlation, while heat flux induced by ocean processes can drive SST variability at decadal and longer time scales, with a negative heat flux–SST correlation. Here, first, we develop a theory to show how the sign of heat flux–SST correlation is affected by atmospheric and oceanic forcing with time scale. In particular, a red noise ocean forcing is necessary for the sign reversal of heat flux–SST correlation. Furthermore, this sign reversal can be detected equivalently in three approaches: the low-pass correlation at lag zero, the unfiltered correlation at long (heat flux) lead, and the real part of the heat flux–SST coherence. Second, we develop a new scheme in combination with the theory to assess the magnitude and time scale of the red noise ocean forcing for AMV in the GFDL SPEAR model (Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research) and observations. In both the model and observations, the ocean forcing on AMV is in general comparable with the atmospheric forcing, with a 90% probability greater than the atmospheric forcing in observations. In contrast to the white noise atmospheric forcing, the ocean forcing has a persistence time comparable or longer than a year, much longer than the SST persistence of ~3 months. This slow ocean forcing is associated implicitly with slow subsurface ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗