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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis using EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

Research for dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA) (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based HRA) has been required, as many researchers have emphasized the importance of dynamic approaches to probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). This study proposes the PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – Human Reliability Analysis (PRIMERA-HRA) method, which is an approach to dynamic HRA using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). In this study, how to model human actions using the software and evaluate the error probabilities is suggested. The applicability of this approach will be also investigated through an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario. Then, major insights from this dynamic HRA approach against the static one will be discussed in the paper.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computable and Operationally Meaningful Multipartite Entanglement Measures

Multipartite entanglement is an essential resource for quantum communication, quantum computing, quantum sensing, and quantum networks. The utility of a quantum state |ψ$\rangle$ for these applications is often directly related to the degree or type of entanglement present in |ψ$\rangle$. Therefore, efficiently quantifying and characterizing multipartite entanglement is of paramount importance. Here, in this work, we introduce a family of multipartite entanglement measures, called concentratable entanglements. Several well-known entanglement measures are recovered as special cases of our family of measures, and hence we provide a general framework for quantifying multipartite entanglement. We prove that the entire family does not increase, on average, under local operations and classical communications. We also provide an operational meaning for these measures in terms of probabilistic concentration of entanglement into Bell pairs. Finally, we show that these quantities can be efficiently estimated on a quantum computer by implementing a parallelized SWAP test, opening up a research direction for measuring multipartite entanglement on quantum devices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Data-Driven Sampling via Multi-Criteria Importance Analysis

Although supercomputers are becoming increasingly powerful, their components have thus far not scaled proportionately. Compute power is growing enormously and is enabling finely resolved simulations that produce never-before-seen features. However, I/O capabilities lag by orders of magnitude, which means only a fraction of the simulation data can be stored for post hoc analysis. Prespecified plans for saving features and quantities of interest do not work for features that have not been seen before. Data-driven intelligent sampling schemes are needed to detect and save important parts of the simulation while it is running. Here, we propose a novel sampling scheme that reduces the size of the data by orders-of-magnitude while still preserving important regions. The approach we develop selects points with unusual data values and high gradients. Finally, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional sampling schemes on a number of tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic neural networks for fluid flow surrogate modeling and data recovery

We consider the use of probabilistic neural networks for fluid flow surrogate modeling and data recovery. This framework is constructed by assuming that the target variables are sampled from a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the inputs. Consequently, the overall formulation sets up a procedure to predict the hyperparameters of this distribution which are then used to compute an objective function given training data. We demonstrate that this framework has the ability to provide for prediction confidence intervals based on the assumption of a probabilistic posterior, given an appropriate model architecture and adequate training data. The applicability of the present framework to cases with noisy measurements and limited observations is also assessed. To demonstrate the capabilities of this framework, we consider canonical regression problems of fluid dynamics from the viewpoint of reduced-order modeling and spatial data recovery for four canonical data sets. The examples considered in this study arise from (i) the shallow-water equations, (ii) a two-dimensional cylinder flow, (iii) the wake of a NACA0012 airfoil with a Gurney flap, and (iv) the NOAA sea surface temperature data set. Furthermore, the present results indicate that the probabilistic neural network not only produces a machine-learning-based fluid flow surrogate model but also systematically quantifies the uncertainty therein to assist with model interpretability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linking classical PRA models to a dynamic PRA

Here, this paper presents a series of methods designed to incorporate classical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models such as Event Trees (ETs) and Fault Trees (FTs) into dynamic PRA. In contrast to classical PRA, dynamic PRA couples stochastic methods with system simulators to determine the risks associated with complex systems such as nuclear power plants. Compared with classical PRA methods, they can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events on the progression of the accident. As part of a dynamic PRA analysis, it is not uncommon that parts of the system to be analyzed might not require a computationally expensive simulation model. These parts could be in fact modeled by employing classical PRA models (e.g., a FT). Here, we present a set of methods and tools that can be used to link the most common classical PRA models (ETs, FTs, reliability block diagrams and Markov models) to simulation codes such as RELAP5-3D: creating a “hybrid PRA.” In order to show the potential of such an hybrid PRA we employ this method to verify ET modeling assumptions (e.g., success criteria) using a large break loss of coolant accident initiating event as a test case. In this respect, we link a set of FTs from the original PRA to the RELAP5-3D code and perform a hybrid PRA. The FTs are employed to model the control logic of several safety systems and to propagate component failures throughout the system. Provided the generated dynamic PRA data, we show how conservative assumptions in the original PRA can be identified and how such original PRA can be modified by updating success criteria captured by the set of RELAP5-3D simulation runs.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning Constrained Parametric Differentiable Predictive Control Policies With Guarantees

We present differentiable predictive control (DPC), a method for offline learning of constrained neural control policies for nonlinear dynamical systems with performance guarantees. We show that the sensitivities of the parametric optimal control problem can be used to obtain direct policy gradients. Specifically, we employ automatic differentiation (AD) to efficiently compute the sensitivities of the model predictive control (MPC) objective function and constraints penalties. To guarantee safety upon deployment, we derive probabilistic guarantees on closed-loop stability and constraint satisfaction based on indicator functions and Hoeffding’s inequality. We empirically demonstrate that the proposed method can learn neural control policies for various parametric optimal control tasks. In particular, we show that the proposed DPC method can stabilize systems with unstable dynamics, track time-varying references, and satisfy nonlinear state and input constraints. Our DPC method has practical time savings compared to alternative approaches for fast and memory-efficient controller design. Specifically, DPC does not depend on a supervisory controller as opposed to approximate MPC based on imitation learning. We demonstrate that, without losing performance, DPC is scalable with greatly reduced demands on memory and computation compared to implicit and explicit MPC while being more sample efficient than model-free reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A mathematical assessment of the isolation random forest method for anomaly detection in big data

We present the mathematical analysis of the Isolation Random Forest Method (IRF Method) for anomaly detection, proposed by Liu F.T., Ting K.M. and Zhou Z. H. in their seminal work as a heuristic method for anomaly detection in Big Data. We prove that the IRF space can be endowed with a probability induced by the Isolation Tree algorithm (iTree). In this setting, the convergence of the IRF method is proved, using the Law of Large Numbers. Here, a couple of counterexamples are presented to show that the method is inconclusive and no certificate of quality can be given, when using it as a means to detect anomalies. Hence, an alternative version of the method is proposed whose mathematical foundation is fully justified. Furthermore, a criterion for choosing the number of sampled trees needed to guarantee confidence intervals of the numerical results is presented. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to compare the performance of the classic method with the proposed one.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-informed machine learning for fault-leakage reduced-order modeling

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a promising technology for mitigating CO 2 emissions. The overall success of GCS depends on safe operations that are informed by risk assessment and have proper mitigation plans in place. Performing quantitative probabilistic risk assessment for a GCS site using traditional reservoir simulators can be challenging due to the high computational costs. To overcome this challenge, the US Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) project has developed an integrated assessment modeling approach that utilizes computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) for simulating various parts of a GCS storage site to quantify uncertainty. Here, in this study, we develop a reduced-order model for fault leakage risk assessment. We use a deep learning approach to build the reduced-order model. We perform a sensitivity analysis and find that the deep learning model yields high accuracy with a much smaller computational cost than full-physics simulation. We also evaluate the performance of the model in scenarios where simulations are not possible to run, providing analysis not previously performed in fault-leakage ROM analyses. Based on a sensitivity analysis of the model, we suggest a simplified conceptual model for fault leakage and site monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced-dimension Bayesian optimization for model calibration of transient vapor compression cycles

Development and calibration of first-principles dynamic models of vapor compression cycles (VCCs) is of critical importance for applications that include control design and fault detection and diagnostics. Nevertheless, the inherent complexity of models that are represented by large systems of differential–algebraic equations leads to significant challenges for model calibration processes that utilize classical gradient-based methods. Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient and gradient-free approach using a probabilistic surrogate model and optimal search over a feasible parameter space. Despite the benefits of BO in reducing computational costs, challenges remain in dealing with a high-dimensional calibration task resulting from a large set of parameters that have significant impacts on system behavior and need to be calibrated simultaneously. This paper presents a reduced-dimension BO framework for calibrating transient VCCs models where the calibration space is projected to a low-dimensional subspace for accelerating convergence of the solution algorithm and consequently reducing the number of transient simulations. The proposed approach was demonstrated via two case studies associated with different VCC applications where 10 parameters were calibrated in each case using laboratory measurements. The reduced-dimension BO framework only required 1 / 8 th of the iterations associated with a standard BO method that deals with high-dimensional calibration parameters for converged solutions and yielded comparable accuracy. Furthermore, both calibrated models revealed significant accuracy improvements compared to uncalibrated models.

Ma, Jiacheng↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch considering Wind Power Penetration

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in this stochastic economic dispatch problem for forecasting purposes, the conventional Monte-Carlo method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, here we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling as the computer experimental design, a Gaussian-process emulator is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated stochastic economic dispatch model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference of Stochastic reaction networks using Multifidelity Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells.These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not directly measurable and must be inferred from experimental data. Bayesian inference provides a rigorous probabilistic frame-work for identifying these parameters by finding a posterior parameter distribution that captures their uncertainty.Traditional computational methods for solving inference problems such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods based on classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm involve numerous serial evaluations of the likelihood function, which in turn requires expensive forward solutions of the chemical master equation (CME). We propose an alternate approach based on a multifidelity extension of the Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ST-MCMC) sampler. This algorithm is built upon Sequential Monte Carlo and solves the Bayesian inference problem by decomposing it into a sequence of efficiently solved subproblems that gradually increase both model fidelity and the influence of the observed data. We reformulate the finite state projection (FSP) algorithm, a well-known method for solving the CME, to produce a hierarchy of surrogate master equations to be used in this multifidelity scheme. To determine the appropriate fidelity, we introduce a novel information-theoretic criteria that seeks to extract the most information about the ultimate Bayesian posterior from each model in the hierarchy without inducing significant bias. This novel sampling scheme is tested with high performance computing resources using biologically relevant problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic constrained Bayesian inversion for transpiration cooling

Abstract To enable safe operations in applications such as rocket combustion chambers, the materials require cooling to avoid material damage. Here, transpiration cooling is a promising cooling technique. Numerous studies investigate possibilities to simulate and evaluate the complex cooling mechanism. One naturally arising question is the amount of coolant required to ensure a safe operation. To study this, we introduce an approach that determines the posterior probability distribution of the Reynolds number using an inverse problem and constraining the maximum temperature of the system under parameter uncertainties. Mathematically, this chance inequality constraint is dealt with by a generalized polynomial chaos expansion of the system. The posterior distribution will be evaluated by different Markov chain Monte Carlo based methods. A novel method for the constrained case is proposed and tested among others on two‐dimensional transpiration cooling models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fire Risk Investigation in 3D (FRI3D) Software and Process for Integrated Fire Modeling

Modeling and implementing fire safety for nuclear power plants is a costly activity. Because of the complexity of fire phenomena and multiple operational procedures, it is difficult to computationally provide assurance that mitigation methods are adequate for critical areas using current analysis methods in a cost-effective manner. The nuclear industry needs efficient methods to provide more accurate modeling and optimize mitigation methods to improve nuclear power plant understanding for fire scenarios. This report describes the work done over the last two year on the Fire Risk Investigation in 3D (FRI3D) software. This software simplifies the modeling process by importing existing plant models and data, incorporating a 3D modeling environment and coupling with the fire simulation software CFAST. This eliminates the manual labor and errors associated with much of the fire modeling process. The report lays out the status and path of FRID software for the Risk Informed Safety Analysis pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability project at Idaho National Laboratory and industry collaborators to best help reduce costs and improve realism in fire probabilistic risk analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance Study of Distance-Weighting Approach with Loopy Sum-Product Algorithm for Multi-Object Tracking in Clutter

In this paper, we explore the performance of the distance-weighting probabilistic data association (DWPDA) approach in conjunction with the loopy sum-product algorithm (LSPA) for tracking multiple objects in clutter. First, we discuss the problem of data association (DA), which is to infer the correspondence between targets and measurements. DA plays an important role when tracking multiple targets using measurements of uncertain origin. Second, we describe three methods of data association: probabilistic data association (PDA), joint probabilistic data association (JPDA), and LSPA. We then apply these three DA methods for tracking multiple crossing targets in cluttered environments, e.g., radar detection with false alarms and missed detections. We are interested in two performance metrics: tracking accuracy and computation time. LSPA is known to be superior to PDA in terms of the former and to dominate JPDA in terms of the latter. Last, we consider an additional DA method that is a modification of PDA by incorporating a weighting scheme based on distances between position estimates and measurements. This distance-weighting approach, when combined with PDA, has been shown to enhance the tracking accuracy of PDA without significant change in the computation burden. Since PDA constitutes a crucial building block of LSPA, we hypothesize that DWPDA, when integrated with LSPA, would perform better under the two performance metrics above. Contrary to expectations, the distance-weighting approach does not enhance the performance of LSPA, whether in terms of tracking accuracy or computation time.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Closures for Nonlinear Fluid Simulations of Plasmas (Final Report)

Advanced Closures for Nonlinear Fluid Simulations of Plasmas E. Held, Utah State University (Principal Investigator) J.-Y. Ji, Utah State University (Co-Investigator) Utah State University (USU) continued to develop and apply closures for hybrid fluid/kinetic simulations of magnetized fusion plasmas. The closures developed by USU's fusion theory and computation group use the drift ordering and are referred to as "continuum" and "general moment" approaches. They differ in their representation for the distribution functions which probabilistically describe the density of particles in 5 dimensional phase space. The two chosen velocity variables, needed in studies of kinetic physics for magnetized plasmas, are the speed and the component of a particle's velocity along the magnetic field. In magnetized plasmas, the charged particle trajectories are tied closely to the magnetic field lines. Both approaches account for binary interactions between particles using the Coulomb collision operator. Theoretical and computational development along both lines provided avenues for verification between the two approaches. This funding allowed USU to further develop physically accurate and numerically efficient models that advance our understanding of kinetic physics in experiments like the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). The ITER device will likely prove the physical practicality of thermonuclear fusion by producing 500 megawatts of clean, abundant fusion power. This work helped to realize this goal by advancing our simulation capability using hybrid fluid/kinetic models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

ASME Design Code Rule Changes for Nuclear Graphite

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler Pressure and Vessel Code (ASME BPVC) Section III, Division 5, Article HHA-3000 outlines graphite core component and graphite core assembly design guidelines. Graphite core components are defined as ?components manufactured from graphite that are installed to form a graphite core assembly within the reactor pressure vessel of a high temperature, graphite moderated fission reactor.? (p. 413) Graphites? inherent defect distributions do not allow for deterministic material reliability. Rather, graphite has variable strength distributions which change by grade. Article HHA-3000 outlines two semi-probabilistic methods, the full and simplified assessments, which set design load limit targets for each of three component structural reliability classes. The Design Task Group was officially recognized as a specialized task group within ASME November of 2023, though we?ve been collaborating since 2022. The purpose of the Design Task Group is to correct, clarify, and make HHA-3000 function as intended. The Design Task Group will sunset once we?ve achieved our objectives. The Design Task Group was specifically told to not write new Code. While there may be more precise and more accurate methods to determine reliability targets, the current methods are conservative, relatively simple to implement, and have thus far been considered satisfactory for setting design reliability targets. Much of the ground-work to write proposal files and background documents for records to make the changes needed to achieve our objective have been completed. The Design Task Group has documented much of their work through papers, presentations, and memorandums. Three memorandums in which INL team members had substantial contributions are found in the Appendices: FEA Modeling for the Baseline Program, Evaluating the Effects on Margin of Updating the Threshold and Shape Parameters in the Full Assessment, and Interpretations of the Full and Simplified Assessments in ASME BPVC. Most of the on-going work to achieve the Design Task Group?s objective will be addressing comments on existing records and moving records through the balloting process. The Design Task Group met bi-weekly mostly through the end of FY2023. Since February 2024, the Design Task Group has mostly been completed with solving and documenting the technical issues associated with the assessments. Unless new tasks are identified, the remaining work of the Design Task Group will be political and editorial.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗