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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Highly accelerated life testing (HALT): A review from a statistical perspective

Despite its use in one form or another for at least four decades, HALT and related techniques [e.g., highly accelerated-stress screening (HASS) and stress audits (HASA)] are not well understood within the statistical community and remain controversial. This largely reflects a conflict in motivation between engineers, testing under harsh conditions to discover and eliminate failure modes, and statisticians, taking a more cautious approach to develop quantitative estimates of parameters such as mean time between failures (MTBF). Here, this review article will clarify HALT concepts and methods and explain where it fits within the universe of methods that involve the application of accelerating factors to compress the time required to evaluate or enhance product reliability. A major distinction is between methods such as HALT, a high-stress test-analyze-fix-test iterative process directed at improving reliability by discovering and fixing weak points in a design, and quantitative accelerated life testing (QALT), whose goal is the estimation of product life for a fixed design. We discuss methods such as physics of failure that offer some hope of bridging the gap between the qualitative nature of HALT, and purely quantitative statistical methods. We present a variety of engineering applications of HALT including metal fatigue, piping and pressure vessels, structural damage, radiation damage, and rotating machinery. We also discuss potential synergies between HALT and QALT, such as rapid identification, through HALT, of failure modes requiring quantitative analysis. For further study, extensive references to the applicable literature are provided as well as an appendix that describes related methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

An experimental and chemical kinetic modeling study of 4-butoxyheptane combustion

Here, the combustion kinetics of a novel oxygenated bioblendstock for diesel, 4-butoxyheptane (4-BH), was investigated experimentally using a flow reactor and a heated, high-pressure shock tube. The flow reactor experiments employed oxygen as the oxidizer and helium as the diluent with oxidation conducted at atmospheric pressure and 10 bar for temperatures from 400 to 1000 K at 20-K intervals. The fuel, oxidizer, and diluent flow rates were varied at different temperatures to maintain a constant initial fuel mole fraction of 1000 ppm, with stoichiometric equivalence ratio, and a residence time of 2.0 s. The reacted gas was fed to two separate GC systems that could qualitatively and quantitatively detect product species. Additionally, real fuel-air ignition delay time (IDT) data were collected using a heated, high-pressure shock-tube facility. Fuel lean (φ = 0.5) and stoichiometric (φ = 1.0) mixtures were investigated at 10 atm as well as at 30 atm for the fuel lean case for temperatures between 847 and 1259 K. A detailed chemical kinetics mechanism was developed to model the product distribution from the flow reactor and IDTs from the shock tube. The proposed model was able to predict the double NTC behavior in flow reactor experiments reasonably well. Model predictions at low temperatures were observed to be highly sensitive to the rate constants of ketohydroperoxide (KHP) decomposition in the case of the OOH group in α position which were modeled based on existing literature studies on ethers. It was noted that in the absence of theoretical or experimental studies, the rate constants for KHP decomposition used in the literature were empirically set. Additional studies are required to address the gap in model prediction obtained in this study and to reduce the uncertainty in kinetics models for ether oxidation. Predicted product concentrations and IDTs showed some quantitative agreement with experimental data, but the overall reactivity of the IDTs is underpredicted. Additionally, significant deviation is observed for the IDT results at 10 atm for the stoichiometric case with minor deviations for the other cases. The reaction pathways to the missing products were then further analyzed theoretically through quantum-mechanical calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solar cities: A case study analysis of city-level enablers of expanded solar energy access

Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption can benefit households by reducing electricity bills and enhancing energy resiliency. Low and moderate-income (LMI) households have been less likely to adopt PV and experience these benefits in the United States than higher-income households. Adopter income trends are often explored through quantitative analysis with limited explanatory power. Our quantitative analysis only explains around one-third of city-level variation in LMI adoption trends through socioeconomic factors such as median home values and income inequality and PV market factors such as cumulative adoption and incentives. We implement semi-structured interviews in three case studies of cities with relatively high rates of LMI PV adoption to better understand the factors that explain PV adopter income trends. The case studies partly reiterate findings from quantitative analysis, such as the role of PV incentives. The case studies reveal a broader set of LMI adoption drivers that are missed in quantitative analyses. The case studies show how city contexts can affect LMI adoption, such as the role of supportive city governments. The case studies also reveal the importance of partnerships, such as partnerships between city governments and state LMI PV program implementers. Finally, interviewees emphasized the importance of building trust among prospective LMI PV adopters. Interviewees suggested that partnerships, outreach, and consumer protection measures were crucial to building trust in PV installers among LMI households.

Adoption↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beyond the Charge Transfer Mechanism for 2D Materials-Assisted Surface Enhanced Raman Scattering

Two-dimensional (2D) materials have been extensively implemented as surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) substrates, enabling trace-molecule detection for broad applications. However, the accurate understanding of the mechanism remains elusive because most theoretical explanations are still phenomenological or qualitative based on simplified models and rough assumptions. To advance the development of 2D material-assisted SERS, it is vital to attain a comprehensive understanding of the enhancement mechanism and a quantitative assessment of the enhancement performance. Here, the microscopic chemical mechanism of 2D material-assisted SERS is quantitatively investigated. The frequency-dependent Raman scattering cross sections suggest that the 2D materials’ SERS performance is strongly dependent on the excitation wavelengths and the molecule types. By analysis of the microscopic Raman scattering processes, the comprehensive contributions of SERS can be revealed. Beyond the widely postulated charge transfer mechanisms, the quantitative results conclusively demonstrate that the resonant transitions within 2D materials alone are also capable of enhancing the molecular Raman scattering through the diffusive scattering of phonons. Furthermore, all of these scattering routines will interfere with each other and determine the final SERS performance. Our results not only provide a complete picture of the SERS mechanisms but also demonstrate a systematic and quantitative approach to theoretically understand, predict, and promote the 2D materials SERS toward analytical applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Conditional diffusion machine-learning framework for mapping valence electron distribution from convergent beam electron diffraction

Quantitative convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) enables determination of aspherical valence electron distributions through refinement of low-order structure factors, which are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and charge density variations. However, conventional quantitative CBED (QCBED) requires solving a highly nonlinear inverse problem with many coupled parameters, and computationally intensive dynamical diffraction calculations, making it time-consuming and difficult to apply to complex systems. More broadly, reconstructing charge density and orbital electron distribution from diffraction data has long been a central challenge in both x-ray and electron crystallography. Here, in this study, we introduce an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based framework that replaces traditional refinement with a data-driven inverse solver. Using a large synthetic CBED dataset generated by Bloch-wave simulations, we train a conditional diffusion model to directly infer crystal structural parameters and multipole density formalism parameters, and hence valence electron distributions, from CBED patterns alone. By learning from forward simulations across realistic parameter space, the model effectively solves the inverse problem. Compared with direct regression approaches, the diffusion-based framework provides posterior parameter distributions for rigorous uncertainty quantification while preserving quantitative fidelity and reducing analysis time by orders of magnitude. By eliminating the need for external single-crystal x-ray diffraction data and complex nonlinear refinement, this approach enables practical, high-throughput, and in situ quantitative CBED, enabling real-time mapping of valence electron distributions and their correlation with functional responses in quantum and energy materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistically-driven Experimental Design to Improve Reference-free Quantification of Small Molecules by Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry

Non-targeted analysis of small molecules and metabolites in unknown, complex samples using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry remains challenging. One of the main bottlenecks is the extensive unannotated regions of metabolomics mass spectrometry data, resulting in knowledge gaps. Small molecule annotation in mass spectrometry data has conventionally relied on reference standards and libraries for compound identification and confirmation, which can constrain compound identification to those molecules already known, thus limiting the ability to discover new knowledge and new markers. Retention time prediction can facilitate and expedite unknown compound identification in non-targeted analysis of complex metabolomics samples. Additionally, accurate retention time predictions can also inform sample mixture design for LC-MS/MS analyses. However, current machine learning-based methods for retention time prediction are typically developed for specific chromatographic platforms and are not generalizable across scales. And while technologies and methods to improve reference-free metabolite identification for more comprehensive annotation of unknowns has received much attention, development of the same for quantitation without reference standards has been much more limited, despite its importance in toxicological, environmental, food safety, forensics, and clinical applications. We believe that a reference-free quantitation strategy that exploits mass spectrometry data already collected for reference-free identification can provide much more insight on unknowns, and move the metabolomics field for more complete unknowns characterization. As such, we pursue two efforts to improve upon current state-of-the-art methods in non-targeted analysis: (1) machine learning-based retention time prediction and (2) statistical design of experiments framework for reference-free quantitation. In this work, we develop and demonstrate (1) a generalizable retention time prediction capability across chromatographic conditions and scales, and (2) a statistical design-based framework for response factor contribution elucidation and reference-free quantitation. Evaluation of our retention time prediction model, PrediToR, showed approximately 24% improvement over current models, and we observed approximately 10X improvement in concentration estimation accuracy from our statistical design-based response factor model over a primarily ionization efficiency-based model. We expect that future efforts to improve upon these new capabilities will further advance non-targeted analysis of small molecules towards truly reference-free metabolomics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optical 14 C Tracing for Biological and Pharmaceutical Applications Using Two-Color Cavity Ringdown Spectroscopy

Laser-based 14 C quantitation has been proposed as a more affordable, higher-throughput, table-top alternative to accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of a mid-IR 14 C detector based on two-color cavity ringdown spectroscopy (2C-CRDS) for low-level 14 C isotope tracing in biological studies. The 2C-CRDS technique quantifies the sample 14 C content by measuring the 14 CO 2 absorption signals from the combusted samples with mid-IR lasers. With 2C-CRDS, we previously demonstrated the most sensitive and accurate optical measurements of 14 CO 2 . The current detection sensitivity and quantitation accuracy of the instrument, at a few parts per quadrillion (where a quadrillion = 10 15 ) 14 C/C mole fraction, is competitive against AMS. Here, by applying the 2C-CRDS 14 C sensor to two applications relevant to 14 C-labeled biochemical analysis and pharmaceutical studies, we demonstrate sub-fCi level (where 1 fCi = 10 –15 Ci) quantitation of sample 14 C activity, with a minimum sample-size requirement of 3 mg of carbon. The current measurement throughput, ~25 min/sample, is largely limited by the sampling efficiency of the online combustion and CO 2 processing interface to the 2C-CRDS instrument. The possibility of a significantly improved measurement throughput of a few minutes per sample is suggested by the results of a flow-through 14 CO 2 sampling scheme. In conclusion, this improved measurement efficiency, combined with the relatively low cost and compact size of a 2C-CRDS sensor, could potentially revolutionize high-sensitivity 14 C tracing in biological, pharmaceutical, and clinical studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Calibration of multisite raters for prospective visual reads of amyloid PET scans

Abstract INTRODUCTION In multicenter Alzheimer's disease studies, amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) visual reads are typically performed centrally by a few experts. Incorporating a broader reader network enhances scalability and generalizability. METHODS Ten neuroimaging experts from eight Alzheimer's Disease Research Centers (ADRCs) visually read 180 amyloid PET scans (30 scans and 15 duplicate scans for each of four tracers, imaged across a wide variety of scanners), using preferred reading software without anatomical imaging or quantitation. Scans were classified as elevated or non‐elevated per tracer‐specific criteria. Inter‐ and intra‐rater agreement was assessed. RESULTS Inter‐rater agreement was substantial (Fleiss’κ = 0.78), with full consensus on 69% of scans. Inter‐rater reliability was substantial to perfect across tracers (Fleiss’κ = 0.70–0.87). Intra‐rater agreement was substantial to perfect (Cohen'sκ = 0.79‐1). Scans with intermediate (10–40 Centiloid) quantitation had lower reader agreement. DISCUSSION A multicenter expert network achieved substantial agreement classifying amyloid PET scans. These scans provide a standard for reader training and reliability assurance in future studies. Highlights Calibration methods ensure reliable amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) visual reads across multiple raters. Substantial agreement is possible across readers using their preferred tools. Agreement is also substantial regardless of the amyloid PET tracer used. Scans with intermediate (10–40 Centiloid) quantitation have lower reader agreement. The calibration set will become a training tool for amyloid PET visual read studies.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanistic modeling of in vitro transcription incorporating effects of magnesium pyrophosphate crystallization

The in vitro transcription (IVT) reaction used in the production of messenger RNA vaccines and therapies remains poorly quantitatively understood. Mechanistic modeling of IVT could inform reaction design, scale-up, and control. In this work, we develop a mechanistic model of IVT to include nucleation and growth of magnesium pyrophosphate crystals and subsequent agglomeration of crystals and DNA. To help generalize this model to different constructs, a novel quantitative description is included for the rate of transcription as a function of target sequence length, DNA concentration, and T7 RNA polymerase concentration. The model explains previously unexplained trends in IVT data and quantitatively predicts the effect of adding the pyrophosphatase enzyme to the reaction system. The model is validated on additional literature data showing an ability to predict transcription rates as a function of RNA sequence length.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Kinetically Relevant Species on Zr‐SiO 2 Materials for MPV Reduction

Abstract On supported metal catalysts such as Zr‐SiO 2 , it can be challenging to isolate characteristics that result from intrinsic properties of the active site from those that result from the environment surrounding the active site. In this report, we utilize in situ titration of Lewis acid sites with phosphonic acid to accurately and quantitatively describe kinetically relevant Zr species on Zr‐SiO 2 materials for the MPV reduction of cyclohexanone. We find that rate of MPV reduction on Zr‐SiO 2 materials can be described as a combination of rate over titratable Zr, that is likely well dispersed Zr, and rate over non‐titratable Zr, that is likely supported ZrO x . The fraction of Zr that is well dispersed on the SiO 2 is dependent on the surface density at which Zr is grafted but not the choice of Zr precursor. We demonstrate that phosphonic acid titration can offer a more relevant, quantitative description of Zr dispersion than UV‐vis and can be used to quantitatively describe changes that occur to the material during regeneration.

Chase, Emily↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrochemically Determined and Structurally Justified Thermochemistry of H atom Transfer on Ti-Oxo Nodes of the Colloidal Metal–Organic Framework Ti-MIL-125

Titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ) has long been employed as (photo)electrodes for reactions relevant to energy storage and renewable energy synthesis. Proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reactions with equimolar amounts of protons and electrons at the TiO 2 surface or within the bulk structure lie at the center of these reactions. Because a proton and an electron are thermochemically equivalent to an H-atom, these reactions are essentially H-atom transfer reactions. Thermodynamics of H-atom transfer has a complex dependence on the synthetic protocol and chemical history of the electrode, the reaction medium, and many others; together, these complications preclude the understanding of the H-atom transfer thermochemistry with atomic-level structural knowledge. Herein, we report our success in employing open-circuit potential (E OCP ) measurements to quantitatively determine the H-atom transfer thermochemistry at structurally well-defined Ti-oxo clusters within a colloidally stabilized metal–organic framework (MOFs), Ti-MIL-125. The free energy to transfer H-atom, Ti 3+ O–H bond dissociation free energy (BDFE), was measured to be 68(2) kcal mol -1 . To the best of our understanding, this is the first report on using E OCP measurements to quantify thermochemistry on any MOFs. The proton topology, the structural change upon the redox reaction, and BDFE values were further quantitatively corroborated using computational simulations. Furthermore, comparisons of the E OCP -derived BDFEs of Ti-MIL-125 to similar parameters in the literature suggest that E OCP should be the preferred method for quantitatively accurate BDFE calculations. Here, the reported success in employing E OCP for nanosized Ti- MIL-125 should lay the ground for thermochemical measurements of other colloidal systems, which are otherwise challenging. Implications of these measurements on Ti-MIL-125 as an H-atom acceptor in chemical reactions and comparisons with other MOFs/metal oxides are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

An AI-driven framework for evaluating local and state authorities’ permitting processes

The demand for new energy infrastructure is increasing across the United States, but heterogenous permitting processes and embedded requirements across different local jurisdictions can cause project delays, increase “soft costs,” and hinder developer expansion. This study analyzes the variability in local permitting requirements across the U.S. and develops a quantitative approach to describe their clarity and effectiveness in enabling infrastructure project development. By using an Energy Language Model (ELM), a large language model (LLM) for energy technologies, we systematically gathered permitting information from nearly 300 state-, county-, and city-level documents, creating a structured dataset of requirements and procedures on an unprecedented scale and speed. Our analysis revealed that local (city and county) permitting requirement documents are underrepresented compared to state-level guidance documents, which can impede timely and cost-effective installation of new electric infrastructure. Our validation process showed that the final database has an accuracy of approximately 95%. We, further, created a new quantitative method to score permitting requirements for clarity and efficiency, with electric vehicle supply equipment as an initial use case. The average local permitting document scored a 1.8 out of 5, which we interpret as meaning that half of the requirements developers face when installing electric infrastructure are ambiguous, increasing both cost and time. We also created a “Generalized Permit Process”, highlighting common procedural steps and identifying specific opportunities for municipalities to improve their documentation. This research establishes a systematic and scalable framework for evaluating the complexities of local infrastructure permitting processes by combining LLM-powered data collection and quantitative scoring. The framework enables policymakers and developers to identify and mitigate procedural bottlenecks, with the expectation that these improvements can accelerate application review and approval, reduce project costs, and expedite connection to utility distribution grids. As a foundational approach for streamlining local project development processes, this study’s methods are intended to be extended to a wide range of energy applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum sensing of paramagnetic analytes by nanodiamonds in levitated microdroplets and aqueous solutions

Nanodiamonds (ND) hosting negatively charged nitrogen-vacancy (NV-) color centers have received attention for applications in magnetic field, electric field, chemical, and bio-sensing. The versatility of these probes is their excellent room-temperature optical and spin properties, along with their small size, functionalized surfaces and resistance to bleaching, making them ideal as nanoscopic sensors in picoliter volumes (e.g. single cells, but also microcompartments and aerosols). For quantitative ND-NV- sensing of paramagnetic analytes in such contexts, however, there remains an incomplete understanding of how factors related to the aqueous phase environment control detection efficiency. To address this, optically detected magnetic resonance (ODMR) is measured in bulk macroscale solutions and single levitated microdroplets as a function of Gd+3 concentration (340 nM to 1.5 mM), nanodiamond size, pH, competitor ions, and ligands. The ODMR response to [Gd+3] is found to be nonlinear, and pH, ND and sample volume dependent; indicating the detection of Gd+3 requires efficient adsorption of the analyte to the diamond surface. Langmuir adsorption isotherms embedded in a quantitative photophysical model links the ODMR response to adsorption thermodynamics of Gd+3. The equilibrium constant for Gd+3 adsorption to a carboxylated ND surface is determined to be (1 ± 0.5) x 105 M-1 corresponding to a free energy of adsorption of (-28 ± 1) kJ mol-1. These results provide general insight into how complex aqueous and microscale environments impact nanodiamond based quantum sensing modalities, and portend their application as quantitative chemical sensors in microenvironments.

Brown, Emily K↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-trained machine learning models for Lorentz transmission electron microscopy

Understanding the collective behavior of complex spin textures, such as lattices of magnetic skyrmions, is of fundamental importance for exploring and controlling the emergent ordering of these spin textures and inducing phase transitions. It is also critical to understand the skyrmion–skyrmion interactions for applications such as magnetic skyrmion-enabled reservoir or neuromorphic computing. Magnetic skyrmion lattices can be studied using in situ Lorentz transmission electron microscopy (LTEM), but quantitative and statistically robust analysis of the skyrmion lattices from LTEM images can be difficult. In this work, we show that a convolutional neural network, trained on simulated data, can be applied to perform segmentation of spin textures and to extract quantitative data, such as spin texture size and location, from experimental LTEM images, which cannot be obtained manually. This includes quantitative information about skyrmion size, position, and shape, which can, in turn, be used to calculate skyrmion–skyrmion interactions and lattice ordering. We apply this approach to segmenting images of Néel skyrmion lattices so that we can accurately identify skyrmion size and deformation in both dense and sparse lattices. The model is trained using a large set of micromagnetic simulations as well as simulated LTEM images. This entirely open-source training pipeline can be applied to a wide variety of magnetic features and materials, enabling large-scale statistical studies of spin textures using LTEM.

McCray, Arthur R. C. (ORCID:0000000160774698)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automated scanning probe microscopy of combinatorial ferroelectric libraries: Gaussian-process-guided exploration and noise-aware experiment planning

Combinatorial materials libraries provide an efficient route for mapping composition–property relationships, but their broader impact depends on rapid, quantitative, and functionally relevant characterization. Scanning Probe Microscopy (SPM), including piezoresponse force microscopy (PFM), offers significant potential for quantitative, functionally relevant combi-library readouts. Here, we implement a fully automated SPM workflow for ferroelectric combinatorial libraries and benchmark Gaussian-process-based Bayesian optimization strategies for autonomous experiment planning. The workflow integrates automated probe motion, contact optimization, imaging, and dual amplitude resonance tracking-PFM spectroscopy, and uses scalarized spectroscopic observables to guide subsequent measurements. Stage motion, probe engagement, in-contact tuning, imaging, spectroscopy, and the choice of the next measurement location all proceed without human input. We demonstrate the approach on Sm-doped BiFeO 3 and Zn x Mg 1−x O libraries. By comparing vanilla Bayesian optimization with a measured-noise variant, we show that explicit treatment of local reproducibility can improve modeling of composition-dependent response when the measured variance is physically meaningful, but can also reduce robustness when variability is dominated by outliers or topographic artifacts. Furthermore, these results establish automated SPM as a bridge between combinatorial synthesis and quantitative functional characterization.

Liu, Yu [University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (U↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anomalous electroweak physics unraveled via evidential deep learning

The ever-growing ecosystem of beyond standard model (BSM) calculations and parametrizations has motivated the development of systematic methods for making quantitative cross-comparisons over the wide range of possible models, especially with controllable uncertainties. In this setting, the language of uncertainty quantification (UQ) furnishes useful metrics for assessing statistical overlaps and discrepancies among BSM and related models. In this study, we leverage recent machine learning (ML) developments in evidential deep learning (EDL) for UQ to separate data (aleatoric) and knowledge (epistemic) uncertainties in a model-discrimination setting. We construct several potentially BSM-motivated scenarios for the anomalous electroweak interaction (AEWI) of neutrinos with nucleons in deep inelastic scattering ( v DIS). These scenarios are then quantitatively mapped, as a demonstration, alongside Monte Carlo replicas of the CT18 PDFs used to calculate the $\varDelta \chi ^{2}$ statistic for a typical multi-GeV v DIS experiment, CDHSW. Our framework effectively highlights areas of model agreement and provides a classification of out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. By offering the opportunity to quantitatively understand model overlaps, the approach presented in this work can help facilitate efficient BSM model exploration and exclusion for future New Physics searches.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nature of innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs

Innovations improve technology costs through various kinds of engineering advancements, including changes to materials choices and device or process designs. Understanding how these innovations relate to cost change can reveal aspects of the process of technology evolution, yet developing such understanding is often not possible with a strictly quantitative approach due to data limitations. In this paper we develop a hybrid quantitative-qualitative framework for relating specific innovations to cost change by using the variables in a quantitative technology cost change model as an organizing principle. We demonstrate this framework by applying it to the cost decline in photovoltaic (PV) systems over the last five decades. This framework generates new understanding of a set of innovations that contributed to PV modules’ sustained cost decline and the more modest trends observed in balance-of-system (BOS) costs. The results show the great diversity of innovations that affected PV costs, drawing on wide-ranging fields of expertise within scientific research and practice. We find that there are differences in the characteristics of innovations that reduced the cost of PV modules compared to innovations influencing BOS costs. Numerous module innovations reduced costs by advancing manufacturing tools and processes that improved material quality. Many BOS innovations reduced costs through a combination of component design changes, integration, automation, digitalization, and standardization. Overall, most innovations in our sample affected PV hardware. However, some also target ‘soft technologies’ such as task durations through innovations like fast-track permitting, which require improved collaboration and process streamlining. This framework also provides insight into the nature of knowledge spillovers between technologies. Both module and BOS hardware innovations show the benefits of PV’s position within an ‘ecosystem’ of continuously advancing technologies in many industries, in particular semiconductors and electronics, and also point to the importance of public institutions for accelerating testing, permitting, and training.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pressure Gain, Stability, and Operability of Methane/Syngas Based RDEs Under Steady and Transient Conditions (Final Project Report)

The scope of this work addresses key issues associated with losses associated with the detonation wave and other processes internal to the RDE operation, as well as it develops modeling tools for the evaluation of these losses and exhaust emissions in RDEs. The main challenge in studying RDEs is that RDE performance is highly reliant on the specifics of the design so much so that simple/canonical systems alone cannot provide useful engineering information, but practical RDE designs are sufficiently complex and involve extreme operational environments that detailed access either experimentally (laser diagnostics, for instance) or computationally (direct numerical simulations) are as yet to become practical. To overcome this challenge, we have conducted a combined experimental/simulation/analytical study investigating key phenomena that control the characteristics of operation of RDEs. As a result, the study has developed tools and methods that can be used to evaluate performance and design approaches using reduced-physics models, with the assumptions validated using detailed simulations, and the model prediction tested using experimental observations. The specific objectives of the research were: (1) Develop and demonstrate a low-loss fully axial injection concept, taking advantage of stratification effects to alter the detonation structure and position the wave favorably within the combustor; (2) Obtain stability and operability characteristics of an RDE across operating conditions to aid in the development of operability and performance rules for the operations of other systems; and (3) Develop quantitative metrics for performance gain as well as quantitative description of the loss mechanisms through a combination of diagnostics development, reduced-order modeling, and detailed simulations. The work conducted here has made contribution on design of low-loss inlets that has broad application within the power generation industry for use with pressure gain combustion. The operability and stability of different designs, while focusing on axial air inlet designs, has been analyzed. The effect of nozzle and injection conditions was studied. Models and simulations of exhaust emissions, focusing on NOx emission has been developed and used to investigate how operation of the RDE affect NOx production using Lagrangian analysis of RDE simulations. This work has built on previous programs, with the goal of further understanding operation of RDEs and elevate the readiness of design consideration. In addition, a suite of diagnostic and modeling tools have been developed to obtain quantitative metrics on performance based on measurements, which can be readily transferred to other experimental configurations.

08 HYDROGEN↗