Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “random processes”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

Predicting kinase inhibitors using bioactivity matrix derived informer sets

Prediction of compounds that are active against a desired biological target is a common step in drug discovery efforts. Virtual screening methods seek some active-enriched fraction of a library for experimental testing. Where data are too scarce to train supervised learning models for compound prioritization, initial screening must provide the necessary data. Commonly, such an initial library is selected on the basis of chemical diversity by some pseudo-random process (for example, the first few plates of a larger library) or by selecting an entire smaller library. These approaches may not produce a sufficient number or diversity of actives. An alternative approach is to select an informer set of screening compounds on the basis of chemogenomic information from previous testing of compounds against a large number of targets. We compare different ways of using chemogenomic data to choose a small informer set of compounds based on previously measured bioactivity data. We develop this Informer-Based-Ranking (IBR) approach using the Published Kinase Inhibitor Sets (PKIS) as the chemogenomic data to select the informer sets. We test the informer compounds on a target that is not part of the chemogenomic data, then predict the activity of the remaining compounds based on the experimental informer data and the chemogenomic data. Through new chemical screening experiments, we demonstrate the utility of IBR strategies in a prospective test on three kinase targets not included in the PKIS.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Optoelectronic Properties of C60 and C70 Fullerene Derivatives: Designing and Evaluating Novel Candidates for Efficient P3HT Polymer Solar Cells

Ten novel fullerene-derivatives (FDs) of C60 and C70 had been designed as acceptor for polymer solar cell (PSC) by employing the quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model, which was developed strategically with a reasonably big pool of experimental power conversion efficiency (PCE) data. The QSPR model was checked and validated with stringent parameter and reliability of predicted PCE values of all designed FDs. They were assessed by the applicability domain (AD) and process randomization test. The predicted PCE of FDs range from 7.96 to 23.01. The obtained encouraging results led us to the additional theoretical analysis of the energetics and UV-Vis spectra of isolated dyes employing Density functional theory (DFT) and Time-dependent-DFT (TD-DFT) calculations using PBE/6-31G(d,p) and CAM-B3LYP/6-311G(d,p) level calculations, respectively. The FD4 is the best C60-derivatives candidates for PSCs as it has the lowest exciton binding energy, up-shifted lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) energy level to increase open-circuit voltage (VOC) and strong absorption in the UV region. In case of C70-derivatives, FD7 is potential candidate for future PSCs due to its strong absorption in UV-Vis region and lower exciton binding energy with higher VOC. Our optoelectronic results strongly support the developed QSPR model equation. Analyzing QSPR model and optoelectronic parameters, we concluded that the FD1, FD2, FD4, and FD10 are the most potential candidates for acceptor fragment of fullerene-based PSC. The outcomes of tactical molecular design followed by the investigation of optoelectronic features are suggested to be employed as a significant resource for the synthesis of FDs as an acceptor of PSCs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

On the bound of first excursion probability

Method has been developed to improve the lower bound of the first excursion probability that can apply to the problem with either constant or time-dependent barriers. The method requires knowledge of the joint density function of the random process at two arbitrary instants.

Yang, J. N.↗

Space transportation system technology symposium. Volume 2 - Dynamics and aeroelasticity

The Space Shuttle, being an hybrid – an airplane and a launch vehicle – represents the greatest challenge that the dynamicist and the aeroelastician have faced. Some specific problem areas related to the Space Shuttle are listed on figure 1. Dynamics and aeroelasticity envelop many disciplines, including aerodynamics, vibration, random processes, structures, fluid flow, mechanics, etc., but, of more importance, they involve the interaction and coupling of many of these various disciplines. Fundamentally, we are concerned with structural integrity and safe flight, i.e., trying to ensure that the vehicle will remain structurally intact as well as function properly in the presence of the many faceted dynamic environment. A new area which may have an impact on our task is the effect of the high temperature environment. In the past, we have been able to successfully decouple the temperature effects from our problem formulation. For the Space Shuttle, this problem must be closely reexamined. As has been pointed out in the opening remarks of the Conference, the Dynamics and Aeroelasticity Technology Group comprises one of several technology groups which are attempting to provide the necessary research to support a successful and safe vehicle. The group has members from most of the NASA Centers as well as from the Air Force groups. We meet periodically to review ongoing work, search for new problem areas; and we are constantly updating and revising our program. The group is organized into three panels as shown on figure 2: a panel on Dynamic Loads and Response, one on Aeroelasticity, and one on Flight Dynamics and Environment. The Conference papers accordingly have been grouped in these same three areas, with each Panel Chairman acting as moderator for his particular session.

Source record↗