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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Acoustic Travel-Time Tomography for Wind Energy

New remote sensing technologies for direct observation of the atmospheric flow in the proximity of operating wind turbines are necessary for the advancement of wind turbine design, wind plant control, and the validation of high-fidelity numerical models; fundamental goals of the DOE Wind Energy Technology Office's (WETO's) A2e program. Modern remote sensing technologies for commercial and research applications rely on the backscatter of light or sound waves, which limits spatial and temporal resolution and cannot produce reliable flow estimates near solid bodies or reflective surfaces. Acoustic tomography (AT) is an innovative sensing technology based on fundamental thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere and an inverse algorithm that can reconstruct both velocity and temperature fields within a network of acoustic transducers. AT relies on the direct travel path of acoustic signals between speakers and microphones in the network and can achieve much higher resolutions than conventional backscatter technologies. For wind energy R&D applications, AT represents an extremely economical option over other remote sensing technologies, integrating mature and commonly available acoustic and signal processing hardware. This report is intended as an update on the development of the AT array on the NREL Flatirons Campus (FC) and includes a brief review of the instrumentation, the calibration of equipment, signal processing, and resulting flow field estimates. Designs for future AT systems and applications are detailed in this report, including summaries of new capabilities, engineering and theoretical challenges, and anticipated costs help to outline future directions for AT technology R\&D. The potential for application of AT to utility-scale turbines is also discussed. Investing in the development of the proposed instrument will establish AT as a transformational RS technique that represents a significant advance in measurement instrumentation, enabling new fundamental insights into the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer and supporting applications for wind energy, pollution transport, and resource characterization. AT is also an extremely economical option over other RS instruments, integrating mature and commonly available acoustic and signal processing hardware.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Predictions for Fastener Failure in the Sandia Mechanics Challenge Using the Discrete-Direct Uncertainty Quantification Approach

This paper documents the blind and post-blind analysis predictions for the 2023 Sandia Mechanics Challenge (SMC), which involved predicting the behavior of a threaded fastener joint structure subjected to shock loading. Utilizing repeat sets of fastener calibration data from various experimental configurations including tension, double shear, and joint tension, we developed a library of calibrated models which were propagated through the application model using the Discrete-Direct (DD) uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach. Although the initial blind predictions did not incorporate spare-sample processing to quantify fastener failure probabilities, the analyses yielded reasonable conclusions aligned with experimental results. In the post-blind analysis phase, we focused on enhancing the fidelity of the aluminum constitutive model and innovating the DD approach to obtain probabilistic predictions for fastener failure, particularly when quantities of interest (QoIs) approach their bounds. The improved aluminum model captures the behavior of the cantilever under shock loading more accurately, predicting both partial and complete cracks, although it tends to underpredict failure propagation. The enhanced DD approach facilitates probabilistic predictions that reflect the interdependent failure mechanisms of the fasteners and the cantilever, revealing that while certain fasteners are more likely to fail, the failure does not necessarily follow a progressive pattern. Overall, the post-blind analyses significantly improved the predictive capabilities of the model, providing valuable insights into the SMC application and establishing a robust foundation for informed engineering decisions. The methodology demonstrates a cost-effective and extensible approach suitable for a wide range of applications, highlighting the importance of uncertainty quantification to provide context for engineering decision making.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Raman Microscopy Analysis of Wyoming CarbonSAFE Pilot Well Thin Sections for Mineralogy and Organic Matter Characterization

Scanning confocal Raman microspectroscopy (RMS) was used to analyze thin sections for inorganic mineral content and for evaluation of organic material (OM). Thin sections were selected from a stratigraphic test well core in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming under the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project. The well was analyzed with a variety of rock and fluid characterization techniques to determine the feasibility of a commercial-scale CO2 storage site. RMS complements other analyses, including traditional petrography, SEM, porosity and permeability, and XRD For this aspect of the study, RMS is especially important in the evaluation of OM in sealing lithologies. At prospective geologic CO2 storage sites, it is imperative to assess the unconventional oil and gas potential of seals to ensure that any future development would not compromise the integrity of the seals. Whole-slide mineralogical surveys were performed on thin sections from various shale and sandstone formations. Surveys were analyzed with Direct Classical Least Squares to identify and quantify minerals. The location and concentration of minerals was color-coded and overlaid on optical images for visualization of the distribution of minerals. Dense hyperspectral Raman mapping of OM was performed on five thin sections. Eleven spectral parameters diagnostic of organic type and thermal maturity were used to train a Partial Least Squares (PLS) calibration against a set of artificially matured samples spanning the pre- to mid-oil window. The PLS was applied to the study set and a post-mature set. Additionally, the PLS was applied to each point in hyperspectral maps for visualization of trends in maturity across sample sets and discrimination of organic matter types within a given map. In inorganic surveys on thin sections, a total of 14 unique inorganic minerals were identified in Raman spectra including quartz, dolomite, calcite, hematite and anhydrite. Shale thin sections tended to be dominated by organic material. OM was often observed mixed with inorganic minerals. Sand- and mudstones were dominated by inorganic minerals. The PLS extrapolated the post-mature set to reflectances >1.2%. The study set ranged from very immature to postmature in the median of map fit-peak parameters. However, point maturity maps indicate that matrix OM in all study samples is immature and that discreet organic particles selected for mapping, which may be inertinites, bias medians towards more-mature. The work demonstrates the capabilities of RMS to perform both whole-slide mineralogy and OM analysis with applications to formation evaluation in oil & gas, carbon sequestration and mining. Here, analysis of sealing formations in the well indicates high levels of immature organic matter that would not be a viable target for future oil production that could compromise the CO2 storage site. The work brings together diverse disciplines from geology and petrography to analytical chemistry, big data and microscopy.

Myers, Grant↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reweighting Underlying Event and Colour Reconnection parameter variations in Sherpa

We propose and validate a new method to trace the impact of parameter variations in the simulation of multi-parton interactions and colour reconnections in the Sherpa event generator. They are reflected, at an event-by-event basis, through relative weights with respect to the central production parameters that give rise to the generated events and distributions. Our method facilitates the tuning of the Monte Carlo event generator at a dramatically reduced computational cost, alleviates parameter sensitivity studies, and enables robust quantification of parametric uncertainties on-the-fly, one of the missing ingredients for future simulations of high-energy particle collisions. The method can easily be adapted to and implemented in other event generators. To illustrate its potential, we here consider combined tunes of the multi-parton-interaction and colour-reconnection models in Sherpa using LHC proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}=7\,\text{TeV}$. We furthermore calibrate the energy-scaling behaviour of dimensionful model parameters based on $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text{TeV}$ LHC data and Tevatron data taken at $\sqrt{s}=1.96\,\text{TeV}$.

Pabst, Moritz [Gottingen U.]↗
DOE OSTI2021

The causal relationship between melt pool geometry and energy absorption measured in real time during laser-based manufacturing

During laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing, laser power absorption is governed by a pro -tean pool of molten metal that can present as a highly reflective surface, a deeply absorbing cavity, or some amalgamation thereof. These melt pool dynamics have been linked to defect creation, porosity, and surface finish quality. Although these are therefore critical for determining final part quality, their in-stantaneous influence on laser absorption have only been explored through simulation. To date, direct real-time observations have been elusive due to the locally extreme environment. In this work, we fo-cus a laser on Ti-6Al-4V powder and bare plate while quantifying the time-dependent, absolute energy absorption by monitoring omnidirectional backscattered laser intensity. We also simultaneously record the projective melt pool geometries with high-speed synchrotron x-ray imaging. We find that laser ab-sorption strongly reflects the stability of the vapor depression over a wide range of applied laser powers, oxygen content in the processing atmosphere, and with the presence of powder. During laser scanning of a powder bed surface, we find a significant absorption reduction after 400 mu s due to a dramatic change in the vapor depression aspect ratio-an event known to create porosity. Furthermore, as several industrial scan strate-gies necessitate thousands of these events during a build, their identification and control is of significant practical importance. Lastly, a normalized enthalpy model is demonstrated to be effective in quantifying the relationship between the laser absorption and cavity depth, even under transient conditions. In addi-tion to providing vital quantitative data for simulation calibration, the correlation of melt pool geometry with laser absorption during realistic processing conditions suggests the use of a total backscattered light detection system for real-time process control.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing integrated neutron diffraction and elastoplastic self-consistent crystal plasticity model to quantitatively assess the strengthening mechanism in Al–12.5Ce and Al–12.5Ce–0.4Mg alloys

An integrated in-situ neutron diffraction and elastic plastic self-consistent crystal plasticity (EPSC-CP) modeling scheme is performed on a binary Al–12Ce alloy and a ternary Al–12Ce–0.4Mg alloys. Using this scheme, the constitutive parameters, i.e. elastic constants and slip system parameters of individual phases can be calibrated which can be used in microstructure-based CP models to predict materials performance. From this study, it is shown that the elastic constants of Al 11 Ce 3 intermetallics calculated from density function theory calculation in the literature are rather accurate. When applied to the EPSC-CP model, the lattice strains of both the binary and ternary alloys are correctly predicted as compared with experiments, and large lattice strain differences between Al (100) plane and Al 11 Ce 3 (010) plane are demonstrated. The slip system parameters calibrated by the scheme shows that the addition of 0.4 wt% Mg in the alloy has little influence on the critical resolved shear stress of initial dislocation glide in the Al matrix which caused plastic yield in the material. This can be explained by the very dilute Mg solute content in the Al solid solution, causing large spacing of Al–Mg lattice misfit sites and little impact on resistance of dislocation glide at initial yield. The 0.4 wt% Mg addition, on the other hand, has a large influence on the hardening term in the slip system parameters, indicating those Al–Mg misfit sites do help dislocation accumulation during the deformation. The impact of dilute Mg addition on the Al slip system parameters is also reflected in the flow behavior of the ternary alloy: little impact on the yield stress, but a large impact on working hardening and tensile strength of the materials which is consistent with the literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Novel Technology of Non-Contact Real-Time Radiation Damage Sensor for High Power Targets

High-power proton beams planned for forthcoming long-baseline neutrino experiments will subject solid targets to unprecedented radiation damage, threatening reliability and increasing costs. To address this challenge, we are building a real-time, non-contact sensor that tracks damage by measuring broadband laser reflectivity changes from the target surface. A low-power super-continuum Class 3B laser illuminates the sample inside a vacuum test chamber while a high-resolution fiber-coupled spectrometer captures S- and P-polarized light; spectral shifts reveal defect-driven variations in optical constants. My internship goal is to design, build, and commission this prototype by implementing a laser-safety interlock and light shield, integrating remote-operation cameras, and fabricating modular 3-D-printed mounts that enable tool-free swaps without disturbing alignment. The laser, spectrometer, and vacuum chamber have been delivered; interlock hardware, cameras, and mounts are in final assembly, and leak testing of the chamber is underway. Upcoming work will focus on initial calibration of the sensor and executing first beam-irradiation studies.

Pumarino, Rafael↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Improved Zhang's Dynamic Water Balance Model Using Budyko-Based Snow Representation for Better Streamflow Predictions

Understanding the water balance of a catchment in relation to its regional climate forcings and catchment characteristics is critical for predicting current and future water resources amid changing climate and land cover. This study intends to improve Zhang's monthly water balance model (a physics-based conceptual hydrologic model) that reflects the physical partitioning process of the hydrological cycle at the basin level based on regional climate and catchment characteristics. The existing model does not include snow process and has confronted evident limitations in snow-affected areas, which is a critical aspect since snowmelt water has been a significant source of water resources for many regions, especially in the temperate and frigid zones. We introduce a snow module based on surface energy balance and Budyko-limits on melting and combine it with the existing water balance equations. Moreover, monthly parameterization is applied to the model to better explain the time-varying hydrological characteristics of a catchment. The proposed model involves five different monthly parameters, which determine the physical partitioning process of the hydrological cycle, and they are regionally calibrated and validated under Budyko-type constraints. The model is applied to 1,210 basins across the continental United States (CONUS), and the simulated streamflow is compared to the observed data. The proposed model significantly outperformed the original model, improving the median NSE by 31% (from 0.51 to 0.67) and increasing the number of catchments with an acceptable NSE by 58%. The spatial variability of the basin characteristics across the CONUS is also investigated based on the calibrated parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulating energy performance of buildings: a study using eQUEST and Energy Star ® portfolio manager

Commercial buildings consume significant energy in the United States and exhibit high potential for energy use reduction through retrofits. Benchmarking and energy simulation are well established tools in the industry to identify potential improvements and measure performance. Analysis to identify most sensitive retrofit parameters to energy performance can optimize investment and available energy savings. Presented study demonstrates methodology using a static model to determine sensitivity of building design and retrofit parameters with respect to energy performance. Calibrated simulation energy models (eQUEST) of two distribution centers (A, B) are presented. A fractional factorial analysis is conducted on retrofit parameters of efficiency measures targeting the highest energy consumers, and the results are benchmarked using Energy Star® Portfolio Manager. A custom Microsoft Excel® based simulation model is created to simulate occupancy levels, lighting, plug loads, and other equipment used in various spaces throughout the day. For Building A, efficient lighting was the most influential parameter for energy savings, carbon savings and benchmarking score; whereas, for Building B, HVAC efficiency was most influential for energy and demand controlled ventilation and economizers was most influential for benchmarking score. While retrofit projects can save energy and carbon emissions, variation in source-site ratios and state grid emissions, benchmarking scores may not always reflect equivalent improvement. State grid emissions factors, natural gas composition are difficult to model and hence not considered in this study. In conclusion, the synergistic analysis presented, emphasizes the importance of benchmarking and efficiency retrofits in promoting sustainable building practices to reduce energy consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Analysis and Response Support (PARS) Platform for Solar Situational Awareness and Resiliency Services

The project's primary objective is to develop a digital-twin based Photovoltaic (PV) Analysis and Response Support (PARS) platform, which aims to provide real-time situational awareness and optimal response plans. This platform is designed to enhance the performance of hybrid PV systems, making them competitive with or even superior to conventional generation resources. The PARS platform enabled the project team to develop and evaluate an extensive suite of grid support functionalities for the hybrid PV systems to enhance grid performance, across key areas including visibility, dispatchability, security, resilience, and reliability. Given the global push toward achieving 100% clean energy by 2035, there is a significant increase in the integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) throughout the energy grid. Effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty associated with IBRs is crucial for ensuring cost-effectiveness, reliability, and security in both the main grid and islanded microgrids. Constrained to a limited array of IEEE test systems or standard feeder models, traditional IBR modeling struggles to assimilate new field data, accurately reflect system dynamics, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape. In our project, we embraced a Digital Twin (DT) strategy for crafting the PARS platform. A digital twin acts as a precise virtual counterpart of a physical system, built on historical data and continuously honed with real-time insights. This enables the high-fidelity DT to accurately mirror current system operations and forecast future scenarios. Consequently, the PARS platform becomes an ideal environment for testing and refining monitoring, control, power, and energy management algorithms designed to boost hybrid PV system performance. The defining feature of the PARS platform, distinguishing it from other advanced simulation tools, is its exceptional adaptability. This is achieved by employing actual network topologies and utilizing real-time field data for fine-tuning and calibration, ensuring a close emulation of real-world conditions. The project deliverables include: 1) High-fidelity IBR models and tools for real-time parameterization, utilizing real-time field measurements to refine IBR models for enhanced accuracy and performance; 2) Grid-forming and Grid-following capabilities to deliver resilience services, including blackstart, voltage and frequency support, cold-load pick-up, power reserves, and three-phase load balancing across grid-connected and microgrid settings; 3) Machine learning-based forecasting tools and methods for generating synthetic data and topologies, creating diverse and realistic simulation environments for evaluating varied operational scenarios; 4) Advanced microgrid power and energy management algorithms for optimizing the integration and operation of PV, storage, and demand response resources within both feeder and community scales. The power grid data sets are provided by four utility companies in North Carolina and the New York Power Administration. Acting as industry advisors, our industry partners communicated stakeholder needs and regulatory standards to the research teams, aiding technology transfer by incorporating the developed methodologies into their daily operations. This collaboration ensures that the PARS platform, functioning as a power system digital twin, enhances our understanding of IBR dynamic behaviors and enables the development and evaluation of IBR control functions that match or exceed the capabilities of conventional synchronous generators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated parameter and process learning for hydrologic and biogeochemical modules in Earth System Models

Focus area: Primary focal area #2; secondary focal area #3: Learning about parameters and processes of land surface hydrologic and biogeochemical models in Earth System models by integrating machine learning, physics, and big data. Science challenges: How do we maximally leverage big-data observations to improve hydrobiogeochemical process description and parameterization so that such modules more realistically capture hydrologic and vegetation responses and feedbacks under the future climate? For example, how can we leverage physics, limited observations of vegetation and streamflow to better estimate evapotranspiration, and, relatedly, net primary productivity, especially for drought areas? Vegetation plays a critical role in regional and global water cycles; however, existing vegetation models have failed to predict vegetation response to droughts (McDowell & Xu, 2017) , arctic greening (Keenan & Riley, 2018) , and critical transitions between forest and savanna (Hirota et al., 2011) . These studies suggest that when we build process-based models (PBM) parameterized from regional and global plant traits, we tend to poorly describe plant adaptation and local-scale competition processes. The models and their associated parameters assigned for different regions in the world are not capturing essential heterogeneity in vegetation responses at finer spatial scales. Many parameters of the land surface models control hydrology and vegetation dynamics at the same time. The heterogeneity in vegetation response is a function of (i) plant type, (ii) plant size, (iii) competition and succession, (iv) environmental controls, and (v) local variations due to the unique ecological community that are very difficult to describe (e.g., the size of gaps resulting from fire that facilitated the coexistence of pioneering species). In the demographic models, only factors (i) and (iv) were captured, and plant types were generally described only by leaf phenology and climate zones. With current demographic models, we generally consider more traits to define plant types (i) and calibrate these traits to consider factors (ii), (iii) and (iv); however, it is substantially challenging to scale to regional and global simulations due to trait variations across space (Ali et al., 2016). Moreover, it has been noted that hillslope processes, including ridge-to-valley flow and sunny vs. shady slopes are primary organizers of water, energy, and vegetation (Clark et al., 2015; Fan et al., 2019) . Although gradual improvements in the hydrologic model component in earth system models may reduce this error (at a remarkably slow pace), the long-term, gradual impact of hydrology on plant traits are not well captured. Recent work showed that the hydrologic controls exerted by groundwater and lateral flow are primary regulators of rooting depth (Fan et al., 2017) . Such hydrologic controls have seldom been reflected in vegetation model parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AutoCCS: automated collision cross-section calculation software for ion mobility spectrometry–mass spectrometry

Abstract Motivation Ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) separations are increasingly used in conjunction with mass spectrometry (MS) for separation and characterization of ionized molecular species. Information obtained from IMS measurements includes the ion’s collision cross section (CCS), which reflects its size and structure and constitutes a descriptor for distinguishing similar species in mixtures that cannot be separated using conventional approaches. Incorporating CCS into MS-based workflows can improve the specificity and confidence of molecular identification. At present, there is no automated, open-source pipeline for determining CCS of analyte ions in both targeted and untargeted fashion, and intensive user-assisted processing with vendor software and manual evaluation is often required. Results We present AutoCCS, an open-source software to rapidly determine CCS values from IMS-MS measurements. We conducted various IMS experiments in different formats to demonstrate the flexibility of AutoCCS for automated CCS calculation: (i) stepped-field methods for drift tube-based IMS (DTIMS), (ii) single-field methods for DTIMS (supporting two calibration methods: a standard and a new enhanced method) and (iii) linear calibration for Bruker timsTOF and non-linear calibration methods for traveling wave based-IMS in Waters Synapt and Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations. We demonstrated that AutoCCS offers an accurate and reproducible determination of CCS for both standard and unknown analyte ions in various IMS-MS platforms, IMS-field methods, ionization modes and collision gases, without requiring manual processing. Availability and implementation https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/AutoCCS. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. Demo datasets are publicly available at MassIVE (Dataset ID: MSV000085979).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improvements in Reflected Target Non-intrusive Assessment (ReTNA)

Accurate optical surfaces are a primary driver of concentrated solar power plant performance. Errors in pointing and tracking mirrors, the canting of individual mirror facets, and the surface slope of the mirror itself can be caused by errors during assembly, transportation, wind loading, gravity, and many other sources. The tools that exist to measure these error sources today largely rely on fringe deflectometry (SOFAST, QDec, others), or photogrammetry with targets attached to the mirror surface. In 2022, NREL presented a new indoor optical measurement system to measure fully assembled heliostats during development and on the assembly line for quality assurance purposes, which has undergone significant development in the last year, including the installation of a new, larger laboratory setup. This system, called ReTNA (Reflected Target Non-intrusive Assessment), uses a printed pattern as a deflectometry target. Using printed pattern features as deflectometry targets instead of fringes allows the software to measure the surface slope in two dimensions, eliminating the need to for changing, projected targets. In the last year, NREL's ReTNA tool has been adapted to use a tall, thin target, that only spans one dimension of the mirror, and a camera moving on an automatic track system. We will present these new developments, including the new setup, target patterns, software methodology for fast, automatic optical analysis, and important lessons learned throughout the process. ReTNA results will be compared to established tools, to establish the uncertainty of this new method. ReTNA leverages recent improvements in computer vision and photogrammetry to remove as much careful calibration from the setup process as possible, making the tool low cost, simple, and portable. While it will not achieve the resolution of a fringe deflectometry system, its advantages make it well suited for CSP evaluation, and allow it to fill a different industry need.

concentrating solar power↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Linear Additive Conditions for Near-Infrared Diffuse Reflectance Absorption Spectroscopy

Determining the homogeneity of material mixing in real time during product processing is critical for quality control. According to the Kubelka–Munk (K-M) function of diffuse reflectance absorption spectrum, absorbance (A) is approximately linear with the content of the components when the sample scattering coefficient (S) is in a certain range. The S is determined by the particle size of powder samples. Therefore, this study determined particle size ranges that satisfy linear additivity in near-infrared diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (NIRDRS). Thus, the proposed NIRDRS analysis technique can be used to determine the homogeneity of material mixes or analyze the percentages of the components in the mixture. In this study, vitamin B3 and vitamin C were used for preparing mixed samples with varying percentages. The experimental results revealed that linear additivity is satisfied when the powder particle size is in the range of less than 280, 280–450, and 450–900 μm. When the confidence level is 0.01, the actual mixed spectra are not significantly different from the “simulated mixed spectra” constructed by linear addition, with their relative deviations less than 1.08%. The absolute errors of the actual and analytic percentages were within 2.98% for each component in the mixtures. The above conclusions also hold for sorghum, which has a complex material composition. Statistical models cannot analyze the percentages of components in the mixture. In contrast, linear addition and direct calibration approach avoids the use of a large number of samples for statistical modeling and analyze the percentages of mixed samples. Meanwhile, it can be used to discriminate and analyze the material mixing uniformity by building a mechanistic model.

Feng, Zhiyue↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Spatiotemporal-Aware Weighting Scheme for Improving Climate Model Ensemble Predictions

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines climate models within a Bayesian model averaging framework, to improve the predictive capability of model ensembles. Our proposed BNN approach calculates spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases by leveraging individual models' simulation skill, calibrates the ensemble prediction against observations by considering observation data uncertainty, and quantifies epistemic uncertainty when extrapolating to new conditions. More importantly, the BNN method provides interpretability about which climate model contributes more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times. Thus, beyond its predictive capability, the method also brings insights and understanding of the models to guide further model and data development. In this study, we design experiments using an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model simulations to illustrate the BNN ensembling method's capability with respect to prediction accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate that BNN can correctly assign larger weights to the regions and seasons where the individual model fits the observation better. Moreover, its offered interpretability is consistent with our understanding of localized climate model performance. Additionally, BNN shows an increasing uncertainty when the prediction is farther away from the period with constrained data, which appropriately reflects our trustworthiness of the models in the changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unprecedented Shifts in Hydrology Are Emerging Across California's Critical Basins: An Evaluation From 0.5 to 3.5°C

With advances in climate models and downscaling techniques, stakeholders anticipate high-resolution analysis to inform regional to local changes in water management. Here, we produce hydrologic projections from an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs) that were selected and downscaled to support California's 5th Climate Assessment. An ensemble of 19 ESMs was downscaled to a 3-km resolution across California using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach and subsequently run through two calibrated hydrology models. Although California has been extensively studied in the context of climate change, we provide the first evaluation of the warming thresholds at which hydroclimate metrics demonstrate statistically significant shifts. We show that present-day to near-term warming levels in Klamath and Northern Sierra Nevada basins, which serve as a critical source of water for California, show statistically significant decreases in snowfall and peak snowpack and associated decreases in summer snowmelt and runoff. More generally, shifts in these hydroclimate metrics occur for intermediate elevation basins ranging from 1,315 to 1,455 m (4,314.3–4,773.6 ft), while the warming level of emergence is delayed for lower and higher elevation basins. We also find that several basins already demonstrate significant increases in 5- to 100-year runoff intensities, primarily due to the increasing influence of precipitation falling as rain. Hydroclimate metrics with trends that demonstrate near-term warming levels of emergence are reflected in reanalysis-based observations, suggesting California is entering a fundamentally different hydroclimate regime. While this will likely stress California's water management, the research provided can support when to implement adaptation efforts.

Bass, B. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Un↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plant wax and carbon isotope response to heat and drought in the conifer Juniperus monosperma

Plant waxes, including n-alkanes, are commonly used for a wide range of paleo-applications. Several common traits of n-alkanes that are used as paleo-proxies include chain length distribution and average chain length (ACL), as well as plant wax carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions. The effect of climate on plant wax traits has been the subject of many studies, but a common challenge with modern calibrations is disentangling the effects of species (genetic), temperature, and precipitation from one another. Here, in this study, we explore the effect of temperature and drought, independently and combined, on plant wax composition of the species Juniper monosperma in a large ecosystem-scale field manipulation experiment. We find that n-alkane concentrations significantly increase with temperature, but other parameters (including ACL) are not affected. These results support physiological studies that identify n-alkanes as an important barrier to water loss within the plant cuticle. Combined with prior studies, it appears that changes in ACL within sediments are likely controlled by changes in species composition rather than directly by changes in climate. We find little variation in the carbon isotopic composition (δ 13 C) of n-alkanes across the treatments whereas bulk leaf δ 13 C values are higher in the heat and drought treatment. Because leaf δ 13 C values represent a weighted C assimilation signal, these values reflect differences in leaf gas exchange among treatments, whereas the n-alkanes are synthesized when water availability is higher and differences among treatments are not significant enough to influence their values. These results have important implications for using n-alkane traits, including ACL and δ 13 C values, for paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Compound-specific isotope analysis↗