Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “reliability modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Basili, Victor R.↗

Thermophysical Property Measurements of Molten Semiconductors in 1-g and Reduced-g Condition

Understanding and controlling the formation kinetics of varieties of crystal imperfections such as point defects, non uniform distribution of doping atoms, and impurity atoms in growing crystals are very important. Theoretical (numerical) modeling of the crystal growth process is an essential step to achieving these objectives. In order to obtain reliable modeling results, input parameters, i.e. various thermophysical parameters, must be accurate. The importance of accurate thermophysical properties of semiconductors in crystal growth cannot be overly emphasized. The total hemispherical emissivity, for instance, has a dramatic impact on the thermal environment. It determines the radiative emission from the surface of the melt which determines to a large extent the profile of the solidified crystal. In order to understand the convection and the turbulence in a melt, viscosity becomes an important parameter. The liquid surface tension determines the shape of the liquid-atmosphere interface near the solid-liquid-atmosphere triple point. Currently used values for these parameters are rather inaccurate, and this program intends to provide more reliable measurements of these thermophysical properties. Thus, the objective of this program is in the accurate measurements of various thermophysical properties which can be reliably used in the modeling of various crystal growth processes. In this program, thermophysical properties of molten semiconductors, such as Si, Ge, Si-Ge, and InSb will be measured as a function of temperature using the High Temperature Electrostatic Levitator at JPL. Each material will be doped by different kinds of impurities at various doping levels. Thermophysical properties which will be measured include: density, thermal expansion coefficient, surface tension, viscosity, specific heat, hemispherical total emissivity, and perhaps electrical and thermal conductivities. Many molten semiconductors are chemically reactive with crucibles. As a result, these dispersed impurities in the melts tend to substantially modify the properties of pure semiconductors. Sample levitation done in a vacuum clearly helps maintain the sample purity. However, in the 1-g environment, all gravity caused effects such as convection, sedimentation and buoyancy are still present in the sample. In addition, large forces needed to levitate a sample in the presence of the gravity can cause additional flows in the melt. The use of the High Temperature Electrostatic Levitator (HTESL) for the present research is a recent development and little is known about the flows induced by the electrostatic forces. In this ground base program, we will define the limits of HTESL technology as various thermophysical properties of molten semiconductors are measured.

Rhim, Won-Kyu↗

Automated model generation for reliability analysis programs

Semi-Markov models (a generalization of Markov models) can be used to calculate the reliability of virtually any fault-tolerant system. However, the process of delineating all of the states and transitions in the model of a complex system can be devastatingly tedious and error-prone. The ASSIST program allows the user to describe the semi-Markov model in a high-level language. Instead of specifying the individual states of the model, the user specifies the rules governing the behavior of the system, and these are used by ASSIST to automatically generate the model. A small number of statements in the abstract language can be used to describe a very large, complex model. Because no assumptions are made about the system being modeled, the ASSIST program can be used to generate models describing the behavior of any type of system. The ASSIST program and its input language are described and illustrated by examples.

Johnson, Sally C.↗

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV): Flight Rationale for the Space Shuttle Program

Each Orbiter Vehicle (Space Shuttle Program) contains up to 24 Kevlar49/Epoxy Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) for storage of pressurized gases. In the wake of the Columbia accident and the ensuing Return To Flight (RTF) activities, Orbiter engineers reexamined COPV flight certification. The original COPV design calculations were updated to include recently declassified Kevlar COPV test data from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and to incorporate changes in how the Space Shuttle was operated as opposed to orinigially envisioned. 2005 estimates for the probability of a catastrophic failure over the life of the program (from STS-1 through STS-107) were one-in-five. To address this unacceptable risk, the Orbiter Project Office (OPO) initiated a comprehensive investigation to understand and mitigate this risk. First, the team considered and eventually deemed unfeasible procuring and replacing all existing flight COPVs. OPO replaced the two vessels with the highest risk with existing flight spare units. Second, OPO instituted operational improvements in ground procedures to signficiantly reduce risk, without adversely affecting Shuttle capability. Third, OPO developed a comprehensive model to quantify the likelihood of occurrance. A fully-instrumented burst test (recording a lower burst pressure than expected) on a flight-certified vessel provided critical understanding of the behavior of Orbiter COPVs. A more accurate model was based on a newly-compiled comprehensive database of Kevlar data from LLNL and elsewhere. Considering hardware changes, operational improvements and reliability model refinements, the mean reliability was determined to be 0.998 for the remainder of the Shuttle Program (from 2007, for STS- 118 thru STS-135). Since limited hardware resources precluded full model validation through multiple tests, additional model confidence was sought through the first-ever Accelerated Stress Rupture Test (ASRT) of a flown flight article. A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to interpret possible test results. Since the lifetime observed in the ASRT exceeded initial estimates by one to two orders of magnitude, the Space Shuttle Program deemed there was significant conservatism in the model and accepted continued operation with existing flight hardware. Given the variability in tank-to-tank original prooftest response, a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique utilizing Raman Spectroscopy was developed to directly measure COPV residual stress state. Preliminary results showed that patterns of low fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface, together with measured permanent volume growth during proof, could be directly correlated to increased fiber stress ratios on the inside fibers adjacent to the liner, and thus reduced reliability.

Kezirian, Michael T.↗

Design verification of SIFT

A SIFT reliable aircraft control computer system, designed to meet the ultrahigh reliability required for safety critical flight control applications by use of processor replications and voting, was constructed for SRI, and delivered to NASA Langley for evaluation in the AIRLAB. To increase confidence in the reliability projections for SIFT, produced by a Markov reliability model, SRI constructed a formal specification, defining the meaning of reliability in the context of flight control. A further series of specifications defined, in increasing detail, the design of SIFT down to pre- and post-conditions on Pascal code procedures. Mechanically checked mathematical proofs were constructed to demonstrate that the more detailed design specifications for SIFT do indeed imply the formal reliability requirement. An additional specification defined some of the assumptions made about SIFT by the Markov model, and further proofs were constructed to show that these assumptions, as expressed by that specification, did indeed follow from the more detailed design specifications for SIFT. This report provides an outline of the methodology used for this hierarchical specification and proof, and describes the various specifications and proofs performed.

Moser, Louise↗

Reanalysis of Rat Data from Spacelab Life Sciences 2 (SLS-2) to Reveal Research Gaps in Spaceflight Data

Using and analyzing the legacy data obtained in space life sciences missions has the potential to provide researchers a complete picture of the molecular changes associated with space without further experimentation. This project’s objective is to extract, filter, organize, and analyze all Rattus norvegicus data and metadata obtained from Columbia’s Spacelab Life Sciences 2 (SLS-2, STS-58) mission to explore the ways that we can compile information from model organisms, in our case rats, to create a reliable model to understand biological mechanisms in response to these space flight changes. By reusing rare space legacy data coupled with data analysis techniques, we can combine individual preexisting datasets with current ones to gain new, comprehensive insights about the effects of spaceflight on our bodies. Our methods can also lead to the creation of a standardized pipeline that could be applied to other space life science datasets for analysis. In this review, every biological experiment conducted on rats in the SLS-2 Mission was studied with our pipeline to create a new biological library and model that could be used by scientists from around the world to make novel discoveries and develop new hypotheses from this priceless information without the limitation of the costs of spaceflight experimentation.

rats↗

A Model for Assessing the Liability of Seemingly Correct Software

Current research on software reliability does not lend itself to quantitatively assessing the risk posed by a piece of life-critical software. Black-box software reliability models are too general and make too many assumptions to be applied confidently to assessing the risk of life-critical software. We present a model for assessing the risk caused by a piece of software; this model combines software testing results and Hamlet's probable correctness model. We show how this model can assess software risk for those who insure against a loss that can occur if life-critical software fails.

Voas, Jeffrey M.↗

Reliability of Fault Tolerant Control Systems

This paper reports Part I of a two part effort, that is intended to delineate the relationship between reliability and fault tolerant control in a quantitative manner. Reliability analysis of fault-tolerant control systems is performed using Markov models. Reliability properties, peculiar to fault-tolerant control systems are emphasized. As a consequence, coverage of failures through redundancy management can be severely limited. It is shown that in the early life of a syi1ein composed of highly reliable subsystems, the reliability of the overall system is affine with respect to coverage, and inadequate coverage induces dominant single point failures. The utility of some existing software tools for assessing the reliability of fault tolerant control systems is also discussed. Coverage modeling is attempted in Part II in a way that captures its dependence on the control performance and on the diagnostic resolution.

Wu, N. Eva↗

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless if the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the NASA PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle Software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data, respectively. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. We determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Novack, Steven↗

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless of whether the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. It is determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Steven D. Novack↗

Some Aspects of the Failure Mechanisms in BaTiO3-Based Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

The objective of this presentation is to gain insight into possible failure mechanisms in BaTiO3-based ceramic capacitors that may be associated with the reliability degradation that accompanies a reduction in dielectric thickness, as reported by Intel Corporation in 2010. The volumetric efficiency (microF/cm3) of a multilayer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) has been shown to not increase limitlessly due to the grain size effect on the dielectric constant of ferroelectric ceramic BaTiO3 material. The reliability of an MLCC has been discussed with respect to its structure. The MLCCs with higher numbers of dielectric layers will pose more challenges for the reliability of dielectric material, which is the case for most base-metal-electrode (BME) capacitors. A number of MLCCs manufactured using both precious-metal-electrode (PME) and BME technology, with 25 V rating and various chip sizes and capacitances, were tested at accelerated stress levels. Most of these MLCCs had a failure behavior with two mixed failure modes: the well-known rapid dielectric wearout, and so-called 'early failures." The two failure modes can be distinguished when the testing data were presented and normalized at use-level using a 2-parameter Weibull plot. The early failures had a slope parameter of Beta >1, indicating that the early failures are not infant mortalities. Early failures are triggered due to external electrical overstress and become dominant as dielectric layer thickness decreases, accompanied by a dramatic reduction in reliability. This indicates that early failures are the main cause of the reliability degradation in MLCCs as dielectric layer thickness decreases. All of the early failures are characterized by an avalanche-like breakdown leakage current. The failures have been attributed to the extrinsic minor construction defects introduced during fabrication of the capacitors. A reliability model including dielectric thickness and extrinsic defect feature size is proposed in this presentation. The model can be used to explain the Intel-reported reliability degradation in MLCCs with respect to the reduction of dielectric thickness. It can also be used to estimate the reliability of a MLCC based on its construction and microstructure parameters such as dielectric thickness, average grain size, and number of dielectric layers. Measures for preventing early failures are also discussed in this document.

Liu, David Donhang↗

Evaluation of competing software reliability predictions

Different software reliability models can produce very different answers when called upon to predict future reliability in a reliability growth context. Users need to know which, if any, of the competing predictions are trustworthy. Some techniques are presented which form the basis of a partial solution to this problem. Rather than attempting to decide which model is generally best, the approach adopted here allows a user to decide upon the most appropriate model for each application.

Abdel-Ghaly, A. A.↗

Building a Database for a Quantitative Model

A database can greatly benefit a quantitative analysis. The defining characteristic of a quantitative risk, or reliability, model is the use of failure estimate data. Models can easily contain a thousand Basic Events, relying on hundreds of individual data sources. Obviously, entering so much data by hand will eventually lead to errors. Not so obviously entering data this way does not aid linking the Basic Events to the data sources. The best way to organize large amounts of data on a computer is with a database. But a model does not require a large, enterprise-level database with dedicated developers and administrators. A database built in Excel can be quite sufficient. A simple spreadsheet database can link every Basic Event to the individual data source selected for them. This database can also contain the manipulations appropriate for how the data is used in the model. These manipulations include stressing factors based on use and maintenance cycles, dormancy, unique failure modes, the modeling of multiple items as a single "Super component" Basic Event, and Bayesian Updating based on flight and testing experience. A simple, unique metadata field in both the model and database provides a link from any Basic Event in the model to its data source and all relevant calculations. The credibility for the entire model often rests on the credibility and traceability of the data.

Kahn, C. Joseph↗

Computational problems in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models

The choice of the sampling interval and the selection of the order of the model in time series analysis are considered. Band limited (up to 15 Hz) random torque perturbations are applied to the human ankle joint. The applied torque input, the angular rotation output, and the electromyographic activity using surface electrodes from the extensor and flexor muscles of the ankle joint are recorded. Autoregressive moving average models are developed. A parameter constraining technique is applied to develop more reliable models. The asymptotic behavior of the system must be taken into account during parameter optimization to develop predictive models.

Agarwal, G. C.↗

Exponential order statistic models of software reliability growth

Failure times of a software reliability growth process are modeled as order statistics of independent, nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. The Jelinsky-Moranda, Goel-Okumoto, Littlewood, Musa-Okumoto Logarithmic, and Power Law models are all special cases of Exponential Order Statistic Models, but there are many additional examples also. Various characterizations, properties and examples of this class of models are developed and presented.

Miller, D. R.↗

Design for Validation

The use of computer hardware and software in life-critical applications, such as for civil air transports, demands the use of rigorous formal mathematical validation procedures. However, formal specification and verification will only be tractable if the system is designed in a manner that lends itself to formal methods. Likewise, accurate reliability analysis will only be tractable if the number of interacting components that must be individually included in a single reliability model is kept to a low number and if their failure behavior interactions can be modeled simply. Also, the system must be designed such that the system reliability does not directly depend on system parameters that cannot be accurately determined. This paper presents a design methodology based on the concept of designing a system in such a manner that it can be rigorously validated, or "design for validation."

Johnson, Sally C.↗

Preliminary Measurements of Partial Discharge Inception Voltage Degradation with Constant Temperature Aging of Magnet Wire Twisted Pairs for Electric Aircraft Motors

Electric aircraft require high reliability electric motors to meet the stringent safety standards of the aviation industry. Motor winding insulation lifetime and reliability models for electric aircraft applications are needed to enable design of high reliability and high-performance electric motors for aviation applications. Three primary stresses effect the lifetime of motor winding insulation: thermochemical, mechanical, and electrical. This paper presents preliminary experiments on twisted pairs of magnet wire targeting understanding the thermo-chemical degradation of motor winding insulation through constant temperature thermal aging. Three types of magnet wire twisted pairs where tested: polyimide insulated magnet wire, epoxy coated polyimide insulated magnet wire, and epoxy potted polyimide magnet wire. The degradation of the samples over time at temperature was tracked using partial discharge inception voltage measurements. These initial experiments were used for development of procedures and expertise in partial discharge testing and thermo-chemical aging to inform future testing. The preliminary nature of these experiments should be noted when viewing the results. Lessons learned from the experiments are documented.

Thomas Tallerico↗