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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Electrochemically recovered struvite matches conventional fertilizers in soil nutrient supply

Phosphorus (P) is an essential macronutrient for agriculture, yet global reliance on finite phosphorite reserves raises concerns about long-term food and nutrient security. Struvite (MgNH 4 PO 4 ·6H 2 O), a mineral recovered from municipal wastewater, represents a sustainable and circular source of P, but uncertainty remains regarding its nutrient availability relative to conventional fertilizers. This study evaluated the fertilizer value and environmental safety of electrochemically recovered struvite (RecoP) in comparison with diammonium phosphate (DAP), triple superphosphate (TSP), and rock phosphate (RockP). Nutrient availability, potential contaminant concentrations, and soil P and nitrogen (N) dynamics were assessed using standardized chemical analyses and an 8-week incubation experiment across three soils with contrasting soil types. RecoP contained 14.7% citrate-soluble P, significantly greater than RockP and comparable to DAP and TSP. Across all soils, RecoP increased both readily available and moderately labile P pools (p < 0.01), matching the performance of conventional fast-release fertilizers. Despite containing approximately half the total of DAP, RecoP stimulated nitrification rates that were 2.2 times greater than the control and exceeded those of TSP, suggesting that fertilizer-derived N bioavailability, rather than total N loading, governed microbial N transformation responses. Concentrations of potentially toxic elements in RecoP were consistently well below US Environmental Protection Agency regulatory limits thresholds. Collectively, these results indicate that RecoP functions as a readily available source of both P and N, comparable to widely used conventional fertilizers, while meeting environmental safety standards. RecoP therefore represents a viable component of sustainable nutrient management strategies that support P recycling and agricultural productivity.

Kharal, Sudarshan [Ohio Univ., Athens, OH (United ↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Electron‐Density Distribution of UCl 4 and Its Topology from X‐ray Diffraction

Abstract The chemistry of electrons in actinide complexes and materials is still poorly understood and represents a serious challenge and opportunity for experiment and theory. The study of the electron density distribution of the ground state of such systems through X‐ray diffraction represents a unique opportunity to quantitatively investigate different chemical bonding interactions at once, but was considered “almost impossible” on heavy‐atom systems, until very recently. Here, we present a combined experimental and theoretical investigation of the electron density distribution in UCl_ 4 crystals and comparison with the previously reported spin density distribution from polarized neutron diffraction. All approaches provide a consistent picture in terms of electron and spin density distribution, and chemical bond characterization. More importantly, the synergy between experiments and quantum‐mechanical calculations allows to highlight the remarkable sensitivity of X‐ray diffraction to electrons in materials.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pan‐Cancer Survival Impact of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in a National Healthcare System

ABSTRACT Background The cumulative, health system‐wide survival benefit of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) is unclear, particularly among real‐world patients with limited life expectancies and among subgroups poorly represented on clinical trials. We sought to determine the health system‐wide survival impact of ICIs. Methods We identified all patients receiving PD‐1/PD‐L1 or CTLA‐4 inhibitors from 2010 to 2023 in the national Veterans Health Administration (VHA) system (ICI cohort) and all patients who received non‐ICI systemic therapy in the years before ICI approval (historical control). ICI and historical control cohorts were matched on multiple cancer‐related prognostic factors, comorbidities, and demographics. The effect of ICI on overall survival was quantified with Cox regression incorporating matching weights. Cumulative life‐years gained system‐wide were calculated from the difference in adjusted 5‐year restricted mean survival times. Results There were 27,322 patients in the ICI cohort and 69,801 patients in the historical control cohort. Among ICI patients, the most common cancer types were NSCLC (46%) and melanoma (10%). ICI demonstrated a large OS benefit in most cancer types with heterogeneity across cancer types (NSCLC: adjusted HR [aHR] 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.58,p < 0.001; urothelial: aHR 0.91, 95% CI 0.83–1.01,p = 0.066). The relative benefit of ICI was stable across patient age, comorbidity, and self‐reported race subgroups. Across VHA, 15,859 life‐years gained were attributable to ICI within 5‐years of treatment, with NSCLC contributing the most life‐years gained. Conclusion We demonstrated substantial increase in survival due to ICIs across a national health system, including in patient subgroups poorly represented on clinical trials.

Oncology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Antisolvent‐Mediated Air Quench for High‐Efficiency Air‐Processed Carbon‐Based Planar Perovskite Solar Cells

Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) have becoma a leading low‐cost photovoltaic technology, achieving power conversion efficiencies (PCEs) of up to 26.1%. However, their commercialization is hindered by stability issues and the need for controlled processing environments. Carbon‐electrode‐based PSCs (C‐PSCs) offer enhanced stability and cost‐effectiveness compared to traditional metal‐electrode PSCs, i.e., Au and Ag. However, processing challenges persist, particularly in air conditions where moisture sensitivity poses a significant hurdle. Herein, a novel air processing technique is presented for planar C‐PSCs that incorporates antisolvent vapors, such as chlorobenzene, into a controlled air‐quenching process. This method effectively mitigates moisture‐induced instability, resulting in champion PCEs exceeding 20% and robust stability under ambient conditions. The approach retains 80% of initial efficiency after 30 h of operation at maximum power point without encapsulation. This antisolvent‐mediated air‐quenching technique represents a significant advancement in the scalable production of C‐PSCs, paving the way for future large‐scale deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Using Visual Systems Mapping to Improve Transparency and Comparability of Life Cycle Assessment Baseline Scenarios

Visual systems mapping is a systems engineering approach used to represent complex processes and interactions. This study evaluates its application for documenting assumptions in life cycle assessment (LCA) baseline scenarios. In LCA, the baseline or reference case represents the business as usual system against which changes in impacts (e.g., emissions) are assessed. These baseline assumptions are particularly influential in biomass LCAs, yet they often vary across studies due to regional context, system boundaries, and simplifying assumptions that are not consistently or transparently documented. As a result, key feedbacks, omitted processes, and boundary choices may remain unclear, limiting comparability across studies and weakening their usefulness for decision-making. This study examines whether visual systems mapping can improve the transparency and comparability of biomass LCA baseline scenarios. A case study of five published biomass-related LCAs were reviewed, and their baseline scenarios were translated into visual system maps to identify included processes, omitted components, and underlying assumptions. The analysis demonstrates that visual systems mapping can make baseline assumptions more explicit, highlight excluded dynamics, and improve documentation of system boundaries. Based on these findings, the study recommends the use of visual systems mapping alongside open data repositories and reproducible workflows to support greater transparency, reproducibility, and comparability in LCAs. These improvements can strengthen the role of LCAs in informing decisions related to sustainable biomass systems.

Davis, Maggie [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000181319328)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hierarchical Conditioning of Diffusion Models Using Tree-of-Life for Studying Species Evolution

A central problem in biology is to understand how organisms evolve and adapt to their environment by acquiring variations in the observable characteristics or traits of species across the tree of life. With the growing availability of large-scale image repositories in biology and recent advances in generative modeling, there is an opportunity to accelerate the discovery of evolutionary traits automatically from images. Toward this goal, we introduce Phylo-Diffusion, a novel framework for conditioning diffusion models with phylogenetic knowledge represented in the form of HIERarchical Embeddings (HIER-Embeds). We also propose two new experiments for perturbing the embedding space of Phylo-Diffusion: trait masking and trait swapping, inspired by counterpart experiments of gene knockout and gene editing/swapping. Our work represents a novel methodological advance in generative modeling to structure the embedding space of diffusion models using tree-based knowledge. Our work also opens a new chapter of research in evolutionary biology by using generative models to visualize evolutionary changes directly from images. We empirically demonstrate the usefulness of Phylo-Diffusion in capturing meaningful trait variations for fishes and birds, revealing novel insights about the biological mechanisms of their evolution. (Model and code can be found at imageomics.github.io/phylo-diffusion)

Khurana, Mridul↗
DOE OSTI2026

QCD+QED PDF implications for the Higgs sector

In this work, we examine the implications of electroweak corrections beyond leading order for processes of special interest in the Higgs sector. We especially explore the role of these corrections given the introduction of an explicit parton distribution function (PDF) for the photon in the proton, an object which emerges necessarily in global PDF fits which include QED effects (i.e., ‘QCD+QED PDFs’). We concentrate on several representative cases, including total Higgs-production cross sections through gluon fusion, gg → H, vector-boson fusion (VBFH), and associated production, pp → V H; we also examine differential distributions, taking a representative Higgs-strahlung process, pp → W + H. We find that the recently developed LUX formalism for the photon PDF significantly stabilizes the PDF dependence of both QED-PDF and electroweak corrections in the Higgs sector, while leaving overall ~ 3–4% cross-section-level variations, depending on the chosen QCD+QED PDF. We illustrate this QCD+QED PDF dependence by exploring predictions based upon recent analyses of the CTEQ-TEA, MSHT, and NNPDF analysis groups, fitted either at NNLO or approximate N3LO in QCD.

Higgs production↗
DOE OSTI2024

A realistic theory of E6 unification through novel intermediate symmetries

Abstract We propose a non-supersymmetric E 6 GUT with the scalar sector consisting of650⨁351′ ⨁27. Making use of the first representation for the initial symmetry breaking to an intermediate stage, and the latter two representations for second-stage breaking to the Standard Model and a realistic Yukawa sector, this theory represents the minimal E 6 GUT that proceeds through one of the intermediate stages that are novel compared to SU(5) or SO(10) GUT: trinification SU(3) C × SU(3) L × SU(3) R , SU(6) × SU(2) and flipped SO(10) × U(1). We analyze these possibilities under the choice of vacuum that preserves a ℤ 2 “spinorial parity”, which disentangles the chiral and vector-like fermions of E 6 and provides a dark matter candidate in the form of a (scalar) inert doublet. Three cases are shown to consistently unify under the extended survival hypothesis (with minimal fine-tuning): trinification symmetry SU(3) C × SU(3) L × SU(3) R with eitherLRorCRparity, and SU(6) CR × SU(2) L . Although the successful cases give a large range for proton lifetime estimates, all of them include regions consistent with current experimental bounds and within reach of forthcoming experiments. The scenario investigated in this paper essentially represents the unique (potentially) viable choice in the class of E 6 GUTs proceeding through a novel-symmetry intermediate stage, since non-minimal alternatives seem to be intrinsically non-perturbative.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physicochemical and Performance Characterization of Six Commercial Organic Solvent Nanofiltration Membranes

This work introduces a novel, gradient-free metamaterial design method based on Gaussian process regression to represent the density field of a unit cell. The dimension of the design space is determined by the covariance matrix dimension in the Gaussian process regression. We propose compressing this matrix using an autoencoder, enabling the decoder to generate the density field and effectively reduce the originally large design space to a lower-dimensional subspace. In this compressed space, we employ an active learning method, Bayesian Adaptive Direct Search (BADS), for efficient exploration of the design space. We demonstrate that for simple 2D designs aimed at maximizing unit cell stiffness, our method yields results comparable to those of standard topology optimization. Furthermore, we extend our approach to various mechanical problems, from linear elasticity to hyperelastic large deformation and elasto-plasticity under finite deformation, to 3D metamaterial design. This illustrates the method’s versatility and effectiveness across a range of applications.

Wu, Haoran↗
DOE OSTI2024

Riverine dissolved organic matter transformations increase with watershed area, water residence time, and Damköhler numbers in nested watersheds

Abstract Quantifying the relative influence of factors and processes controlling riverine ecosystem function is essential to predicting future conditions under global change. Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a fundamental component of riverine ecosystems that fuels microbial food webs, influences nutrient and light availability, and represents a significant carbon flux globally. The heterogeneous nature of DOM molecular composition and its propensity for interaction (i.e., functional diversity) can characterize riverine ecosystem function across spatiotemporal scales. To investigate fundamental drivers of DOM diversity, we collected seasonal water samples from 42 nested locations within five watersheds spanning multiple watershed sizes (~ 5 to 30,000 km 2 ) across the United States. Patterns in DOM molecular richness, aromaticity, relative abundance of N-containing formulas, and putative biochemical transformations derived from high-resolution mass spectrometry were assessed across gradients of explanatory variables associated with watershed characteristics (e.g., watershed area, water residence time, land cover). We found that putative biochemical transformations were more strongly related to explanatory variables across watersheds than common bulk DOM parameters and that watershed area, surface water residence time and derived Damköhler numbers representing DOM reactivity timescales were strong predictors of DOM diversity. The data also indicate that catchment-specific land cover factors can significantly influence DOM diversity in diverging directions. Overall, the results highlight the importance of considering water residence time and land cover when interpreting longitudinal patterns in DOM chemistry and the continued challenge of identifying generalizable drivers that are transferable across watershed and regional scales for application in Earth system models. This work also introduces a Findable Accessible Interoperable Reusable (FAIR) dataset (> 300 samples) to the community for future syntheses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamics of McMillan mappings III. Symmetric map with mixed nonlinearity

This article extends the study of the dynamical properties of the symmetric McMillan map, emphasizing its utility in understanding and modeling complex nonlinear systems. Although the map features six parameters, we demonstrate that only two are irreducible: the linearized rotation number at the fixed point and a nonlinear parameter representing the ratio of terms in the biquadratic invariant. Through a detailed analysis, we classify regimes of stable motion, provide exact solutions to the mapping equations, and derive a canonical set of action-angle variables, offering analytical expressions for the rotation number and nonlinear tune shift. We further establish connections between general standard-form mappings and the symmetric McMillan map, using the area-preserving Hénon map and accelerator lattices with thin sextupole magnet as representative case studies. Our results show that, despite being a second-order approximation, the symmetric McMillan map provides a highly accurate depiction of dynamics across a wide range of system parameters, demonstrating its practical relevance in both theoretical and applied contexts.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variation of the Passive Film on Compositionally Concentrated Dual-Phase Al 0.3 Cr 0.5 Fe 2 Mn 0.25 Mo 0.15 Ni 1.5 Ti 0.3 and Implications for Corrosion

The passive film on a dual-phase Al 0.3 Cr 0.5 Fe 2 Mn 0.25 Mo 0.15 Ni 1.5 Ti 0.3 FCC + Heusler (L2 1 ) compositionally concentrated alloy formed during extended exposure to an applied potential in the passive range in dilute chloride solution was characterized. Each phase, with its own distinct composition of passivating elements, formed unique passive films separated by a heterophase interface. High-resolution, surface sensitive characterization enabled chemical analysis of the passive film formed over individual phases. The film formed over the L2 1 phase had a higher concentration of Al, Ni, and Ti, while the film formed over FCC phase was of similar thickness but contained comparatively higher Cr, Fe, and Mo concentrations, consistent with the differences in bulk microstructure composition. The passive film was continuous across phase boundaries and the distribution of passivating elements (Al, Cr, and Ti) indicated both phases were independently passivated. Spatially resolved analysis of the surface chemistry of the dual-phase CCA revealed that the cation with the highest composition in passive film formed on the FCC phase was Cr (52.4 at. pct) and for the L2 1 phase was Ti (53.1 at. pct) despite the bulk concentration of each element being below 20 at. pct in their respective phases. Al, Cr, and Ti were enriched in both phases within the passive film relative to their respective bulk compositions. In parallel studies, single-phase alloys with compositions representative of the FCC and L2 1 phases were synthesized to evaluate the corrosion behavior of each phase in isolation. The corrosion behavior of the dual-phase alloy showed passivity evidenced by a pitting potential of 0.615 V SCE in 0.01 M NaCl. The pitting potential and other electrochemical parameters suggested a combination of behaviors of both single-phase samples, suggesting that the global corrosion behavior may be represented by a composite theory applied to phases, their area fractions, and interphase length. However, the interphase in the dual-phase CCA was a local corrosion initiation site and may limit localized corrosion protectiveness. The alloy design implications for optimization of second phase structure and morphology are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Building Resilience: Maintaining Energy Efficiency and Thermal Comfort During Power Outages in Cold Climates

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and cold snaps, present significant challenges to building energy performance and occupant comfort. Highly correlated with climate events are widespread long duration power interruptions that may affect thousands of buildings and millions of customers. This study evaluates the impact of building energy performance and occupant thermal comfort in medium-sized office buildings in a cold climate region. Using energy models representing pre-1980 and 2019 vintages, simulations were conducted to assess energy performance under typical weather conditions and occupant thermal comfort during power interrupted extreme cold snap and heatwave climate events under both current 2020s and future 2050s weather conditions. The results show a projected 33% increase in cooling energy demand and a 19% reduction in heating energy by 2050. Findings reveal that older buildings are more susceptible to cold discomfort during cold snaps, while modern airtight buildings are more vulnerable to overheating during heatwaves. Various passive energy efficiency measures, such as improved infiltration control, thermal windows, solar-controlled windows, and cool envelopes, were evaluated for their ability to mitigate thermal discomforts. Solar controlled windows and weatherstripping contribute to reducing cold thermal discomfort by 21% during a power-interrupted cold snap. Solar-controlled windows were found to reduce hot thermal discomfort by 34% during a future power-interrupted heatwave. The study highlights the importance of targeted retrofitting strategies to enhance thermal resilience, especially during power outages, to ensure occupant safety and comfort during extreme climate events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Controversy and consensus: common ground and best practices for life cycle assessment of emerging technologies

This manuscript explores six controversial topics regarding LCA of emerging technologies: (1) appropriate use of LCA, (2) uncertainty assessment, (3) comparison with incumbents, (4) adopting standards, (5) system scale-up, and (6) stakeholder engagement. These topics encompass key issues vigorously debated during a series of workshop-style discussions convened by the LCA of Emerging Technologies Research Network (currently hosted by ACLCA). This paper represents the main points of support and opposition for a declarative resolution representing each topic, along with points of consensus, held amongst research network of LCA practitioners and experts. These debates and associated open questions are intended to build awareness amongst practitioners and decision-makers of the common challenges associated with assessing emerging technologies, while fostering evidence-based and context-informed discussions that are both transparent and impactful for the broader community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration and analysis of volumetric additive manufacturing via sub-orbital spaceflight testing

Computed Axial Lithography (CAL) represents a significant advancement in the emerging field of Volumetric Additive Manufacturing (VAM). CAL addresses key limitations of traditional photopolymer additive manufacturing technologies, by eliminating the need for layering and support structures. Unlike conventional methods, CAL prints components by illuminating all points within a desired geometry simultaneously, using tomographic reconstruction to form the object in a single step. This unique approach eliminates the relative motion between the object and the precursor material, enabling faster printing speeds and reducing the waste associated with support structures. However, CAL parts require post-processing steps before they can be utilized. CAL's core attributes make it particularly suited for In-Space Manufacturing (ISM), due to its fast fabrication times, wide breadth of materials it can use, and minimized footprint. CAL has been successfully demonstrated in microgravity during parabolic flight experiments. However to fully validate and understand CAL's behaviour in microgravity, all manufacturing and post-processing steps must be integrated. In June 2024, we conducted SpaceCAL Mission 3, testing this entire workflow on a suborbital flight aboard Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo. During ~140 s of microgravity, the system autonomously manufactured and post-processed four parts using PEGDA700 resin. Post-flight analysis showed that 2/4 parts were recognisable, while others were distorted due to bubble formation from residual water droplets, off-axis optical aberrations, and non-uniform solvent rinsing. Despite these limitations, this study represents the first integrated CAL workflow in space, providing an initial experimental demonstration and analysis for closed-loop in-space manufacturing.

Waddell, Taylor [Department of Mechanical Engineer↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relating flow resistance to equivalent roughness

Describing flow resistance using the physical properties of an underlying surface is a recalcitrant problem in overland flow models. If discharge measurements are available, an equivalent roughness (e.g., Manning’s n) can be calibrated to represent the effects of surface properties within the domain with a single numerical value. Alternatively, the flow resistance can be estimated from discharge and velocity measured at a point, typically a runoff plot outlet. However, such experimental estimates are often inconsistent with the equivalent roughness determined from calibration to discharge, even if both derive from the same dataset. For example, if Manning’s equation is used to parameterize flow resistance, the Manning’s n obtained by calibrating a model to discharge differs from the value of n calculated from measured flow and velocity at the hillslope outlet. Here, this discrepancy is resolved by deriving a correction factor relating experimentally-determined flow resistance to the equivalent roughness. The derived correction factor is tested for four commonly-used resistance formulations using 129 rainfall simulator experiments. The correction factor is necessary to reproduce measured velocities, and yields minor improvements in discharge prediction. Plain Language Summary: Accurate runoff prediction is needed for land and water management in dryland regions, where sporadic and limited rainfall necessitate efficient water use and drought mitigation strategies. The skill of runoff models is known to be hindered by out ability to estimate flow resistance, which is the quantity that describes how energy is lost from flowing water to the underlying surface. Typically, models represent flow resistance with an equivalent roughness, e.g., Manning’s n, that is adjusted until the model can reproduce available discharge observations at watershed scale. However, the flow resistance measured in plot-scale experiments (1–10 m) often exceeds equivalent roughness coefficients by a factor of 10. This means that the direct use of plot-scale experimental data to parameterize runoff models could cause errors in discharge and runoff velocity predictions. Here, we resolve these differences by deriving an analytic correction factor that relates flow resistance to the equivalent roughness required for models to reproduce experimental velocity and discharge data. This correction factor is tested using rainfall simulator data from 129 experiments performed in the US Southwest covering a wide range of precipitation intensities, soil textures and vegetation types. Use of the correction factor substantially improves model prediction of flow velocity, which is needed for reproducing the timing of flood events and the estimation of erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Warming but not elevated CO 2 depletes soil organic carbon in a temperate rice paddy

In this article, global climate change has the potential to alter soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in rice paddies, because increases in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) both influence the primary input (i.e., net primary production, NPP) and output (i.e. heterotrophic respiration) of carbon (C). We used two types of open-top chambers representing present conditions (+0°C, +0 ppm CO 2 ) and projected climate change conditions (+2°C, +200 ppm CO 2 ) to investigate the net effect of climate change on SOC stock in rice paddy. Additional chambers with elevated temperature only (+2°C, +0 ppm CO 2 ) allowed us to quantify the individual effects of temperature and [CO 2 ]. We calculated changes in SOC stock using net ecosystem C balance (NECB) analysis (i.e., the balance between C inputs and outputs). Compared to present conditions, projected climate change did not change grain yield due to a trade-off between the effects of warming and [CO 2 ] on grain yield components. NPP during the fallow season significantly decreased under combined warming and CO 2 , as the impact of warming outweighed that of elevated [CO 2 ]. However, rice NPP remained unchanged during the cropping season. Warming plus elevated CO 2 increased SOC mineralization by 157–429 %, particularly through warming-induced soil CO 2 emission during the fallow season. Consequently, climate change conditions decreased (119–271 %) NECB values compared to present conditions, primarily through the response to warming. Our findings demonstrate that rice paddies represent positive feedback on climate change, because accelerated C release from warmed soils will override C gains from NPP under elevated CO 2 . Reducing SOC depletion in rice paddy agriculture under a changing climate therefore requires conservative soil management practices during the fallow season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗