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Measurement-driven, model-based estimation of residual stress and its effects on fatigue crack growth. Part 1: Validation of an eigenstrain model

The objective of this paper is to validate a measurement-driven, model-based approach to estimate residual stress (RS) in samples machined from quenched aluminum stock. Model input is derived from measurement of RS in the parent stock. Validation is performed for prismatic T-sections removed from bars at different locations. We find RS predicted agrees with RS measured, by contour and neutron diffraction methods, with root-mean-square model-measurement difference of 22 MPa. Follow-on work (in Part 2) applies the RS estimation to samples representative of aircraft structures and examines the effects of RS on fatigue crack growth in the RS-bearing samples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hybrid Improved Empirical Mode Decomposition and Artificial Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Critical Heat Flux (CHF)

Three Hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) models namely radial basis function (RBF), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) combined with empirical mode decomposition (EMD) are developed for CHF predictive modelling using CHF experimental databases.First, the original experimental inputs data series are decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual by EMD, whose components are divided into high, medium and low components. The performance parameters of the hybrid models indicates that the root mean square error (RMSE) are 0.8831, 0.6522, and 0.4149; the mean absolute error (MAE) are 0.6697, 0.4636, and 0.1935. The values of the R-square of the developed prediction approach utilizing EMD-RBF, EMD-GRNN, and EMD-MLP models are 0.8553, 0.9302, and 0.9818, and the index of agreement are 0.9464, 0.9700, and 0.9894., The value of the R-square and the index of agreement of the proposed models are much higher than those of the simple models .The Pearson's test results show that the association strength between the measured and the predicted values of the proposed model EMD-MLP is the strongest. These results show the following: (a) compared with other related, recent studies, the prediction accuracy of the hybrid model EMD- MLP proposed in this research is the best hybrid model; (b) the proposed hybrid model (EMD-MLP) attains superior performance compared with simple models.

Djeddou, Messaoud↗

Rooting for survival: how plants tackle a challenging environment through a diversity of root forms and functions

Abstract The current climate crisis has global impacts and will affect the physiology of plants across every continent. Ensuring resilience of our agricultural and natural ecosystems to the environmental stresses imposed by climate change will require molecular insight into the adaptations employed by a diverse array of plants. However, most current studies continue to focus on a limited set of model species or crops. Root systems are particularly understudied even though their functions in water and nutrient uptake are likely pivotal for plant stress resilience and sustainable agriculture. In this review, we highlight anatomical adaptations in roots that enable plant survival in different ecological niches. We then present the current state of knowledge for the molecular underpinnings of these adaptations. Finally, we identify areas where future research using a biodiversity approach can fill knowledge gaps necessary for the development of climate-resilient crops of the future.

Plant Sciences↗

Using Boosted Decision Trees to Select High Quality Measurements in the Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab

This thesis presents the implementation and evaluation of a Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) model to improve the selection of high-quality track measurements in the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. The Mu2e experiment is a high-energy physics experiments seeking to observe a rare theoretical physics process known as Charged Lepton Flavor Violation. A significant challenge faced by the Mu2e experiment are so-called background events, which are events whose data mimics that of the rare physics process the experiment seeks to observe. Without a mechanism to reduce background, it would be impossible to know whether Charged Lepton Flavor Violation occurred or not. To this end, high-quality track measurements must be distinguished from low-quality track measurements. A track can be conceived of as the reconstructed path of a particle that traveled through the Mu2e detector. In addition to other data, data about such tracks is stored using a C++-based framework, specific to the domain of high-energy physics, known as ROOT. A boosted decision tree model was trained using ROOT’s Toolkit For Multivariate Analysis by leveraging variables ancillary to track quality. In evaluation, the BDT achieves a ROC-AUC of 0.927 in discriminating good-quality tracks from poor-quality tracks. Such a score is indicative of both strong discrimination and strong generalization. Subsequently, it is shown that applying a BDT-based quality cut to the distribution of particle momenta significantly enhances the signal-to-background distinction for signal electrons, paving the way for improved sensitivity to Charged Lepton Flavor Violation.

Mullany, Brendan T. [Drew U.] (ORCID:0009000818888↗

Nine-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Final Maps and Results

We present the final nine-year maps and basic results from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) mission. The full nine-year analysis of the time-ordered data provides updated characterizations and calibrations of the experiment. We also provide new nine-year full sky temperature maps that were processed to reduce the asymmetry of the effective beams. Temperature and polarization sky maps are examined to separate cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy from foreground emission, and both types of signals are analyzed in detail.We provide new point source catalogs as well as new diffuse and point source foreground masks. An updated template-removal process is used for cosmological analysis; new foreground fits are performed, and new foreground reduced are presented.We nowimplement an optimal C(exp -1)1 weighting to compute the temperature angular power spectrum. The WMAP mission has resulted in a highly constrained Lambda-CDM cosmological model with precise and accurate parameters in agreement with a host of other cosmological measurements. When WMAP data are combined with finer scale CMB, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Hubble constant measurements, we find that big bang nucleosynthesis is well supported and there is no compelling evidence for a non-standard number of neutrino species (N(sub eff) = 3.84 +/- 0.40). The model fit also implies that the age of the universe is (sub 0) = 13.772 +/- 0.059 Gyr, and the fit Hubble constant is H(sub 0) = 69.32 +/- 0.80 km/s/ Mpc. Inflation is also supported: the fluctuations are adiabatic, with Gaussian random phases; the detection of a deviation of the scalar spectral index from unity, reported earlier by the WMAP team, now has high statistical significance (n(sub s) = 0.9608+/-0.0080); and the universe is close to flat/Euclidean (Omega = −0.0027+0.0039/−0.0038). Overall, the WMAP mission has resulted in a reduction of the cosmological parameter volume by a factor of 68,000 for the standard six-parameter Lambda-CDM model, based on CMB data alone. For a model including tensors, the allowed seven-parameter volume has been reduced by a factor 117,000. Other cosmological observations are in accord with the CMB predictions, and the combined data reduces the cosmological parameter volume even further.With no significant anomalies and an adequate goodness of fit, the inflationary flat Lambda-CDM model and its precise and accurate parameters rooted in WMAP data stands as the standard model of cosmology.

dark matter↗

Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning

Stream temperature (Ts) is an important water quality parameter that affects ecosystem health and human water use for beneficial purposes. Accurate Ts predictions at different spatial and temporal scales can inform water management decisions that account for the effects of changing climate and extreme events. In particular, widespread predictions of Ts in unmonitored stream reaches can enable decision makers to be responsive to changes caused by unforeseen disturbances. In this study, we demonstrate the use of classical machine learning (ML) models, support vector regression and gradient boosted trees (XGBoost), for monthly Ts predictions in 78 pristine and human-impacted catchments of the Mid-Atlantic and Pacific Northwest hydrologic regions spanning different geologies, climate, and land use. The ML models were trained using long-term monitoring data from 1980–2020 for three scenarios: (1) temporal predictions at a single site, (2) temporal predictions for multiple sites within a region, and (3) spatiotemporal predictions in unmonitored basins (PUB). In the first two scenarios, the ML models predicted Ts with median root mean squared errors (RMSE) of 0.69–0.84 °C and 0.92–1.02 °C across different model types for the temporal predictions at single and multiple sites respectively. For the PUB scenario, we used a bootstrap aggregation approach using models trained with different subsets of data, for which an ensemble XGBoost implementation outperformed all other modeling configurations (median RMSE 0.62 °C).The ML models improved median monthly Ts estimates compared to baseline statistical multi-linear regression models by 15–48% depending on the site and scenario. Air temperature was found to be the primary driver of monthly Ts for all sites, with secondary influence of month of the year (seasonality) and solar radiation, while discharge was a significant predictor at only 10 sites. The predictive performance of the ML models was robust to configuration changes in model setup and inputs, but was influenced by the distance to the nearest dam with RMSE <1 °C at sites situated greater than 16 and 44 km from a dam for the temporal single site and regional scenarios, and over 1.4 km from a dam for the PUB scenario. Our results show that classical ML models with solely meteorological inputs can be used for spatial and temporal predictions of monthly Ts in pristine and managed basins with reasonable (<1 °C) accuracy for most locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development and initial test of the University of Wisconsin global isentropic-sigma model

The description of a global version of the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) model and the results from an initial numerical weather prediction experiment are presented in this paper. The main objectives of this initial test are to (1) discuss theta-sigma model development and computer requirements, (2) demonstrate the ability of the UW theta-sigma model for global numerical weather prediction using realistic orography and parameterized physical processes, and (3) compare the transport of an inert trace constituent against a nominally 'identical' sigma coordinate model. Initial and verifying data for the 5-day simulations presented in this work were supplied by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system. The time period studied is 1-6 February 1985. This validation experiment demonstrates that the global UW theta-sigma model produces a realistic 5-day simulation of the mass and momentum distributions when compared to both the identical sigma model and GEOS-1 verification. Root-mean-square errors demonstrate that the theta-sigma model is slightly more accurate than the nominally identical sigma model with respect to standard synoptic variables. Of particular importance, the UW theta-sigma model displays a distinct advantage over the conventional sigma model with respect to the prognostic simulation of inert trace constituent transport in amplifying baroclinic waves of the extratropics. This is especially true in the upper troposphere and stratosphere where the spatial integrity and conservation of an inert trace constituent is severely compromised in the sigma model compared to the theta-sigma model.

Zapotocny, Tom H.↗

Similarity Assessment of Land Surface Model Outputs in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/ upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.

land surface models↗

Mechanistic Modeling of TEG Dehydrator Emissions in Oil and Gas Industry

This work presents a mechanistic modeling approach for simulating methane emissions from triethylene glycol (TEG) dehydrators used in oil & gas (O&G) operations. The model was developed as a modular component of the Mechanistic Air Emissions Simulator (MAES) tool, incorporating species-specific absorption and emission dynamics through two-level, second-order polynomial regression (PR) models trained on ProMax simulation data: (1) species-level regression models that track the transfer rates of individual gas species within the dehydrator unit streams, and (2) outlet flow stream regression models that predict the fraction of inlet gas distributed among the outlet streams of the dehydrator unit. These behaviors were characterized over a range of glycol circulation ratios, wet gas pressures, and temperatures. The model was validated using root mean square error (RMSE) analysis. The species-level PR achieved low root mean square error (RMSE) values (<0.03) for light hydrocarbon species across all dehydrator components, ranging from 0.0009 for methane to 0.029 for normal pentane. Similarly, the outlet-level PR yielded RMSE values below 0.002 for the dry gas fraction, 0.001 for the flash tank fraction, and 0.002 for the still vent fraction, demonstrating strong agreement between predicted and reference ProMax values. When deployed at field facilities, the model significantly improved MAES-simulated dehydrator emissions, revealing that gas-assisted glycol pump emissions are the dominant contributors to both dehydrator-level and site-level methane emissions under uncontrolled conditions. Further analysis of the 154 dehydrator units reported by operators under the AMI 2024 project showed that 54 units (31%) used gas-driven glycol pumps, of which 6 units (11%) operated with uncontrolled flash tanks, and 22 units (40.7%) were identified as potentially oversized. Of the six dehydrator units with uncontrolled gas-assisted pumps, pump emissions accounted for 90.25% of total dehydrator emissions and 63.10% of total site-level emissions. These findings highlight substantial opportunities for emissions mitigation through equipment upgrades.

MAES↗

Derivation and Testing of Consumptive Water Use Fraction for Specialty Crops

The Crop Consumptive Use Fraction (CCUF) expresses beneficial water use in the form of seasonal evapotranspiration of applied water (ETAW), relative to total irrigation volume. The metric is an indicator of the efficiency of agricultural water use and is a recommended component for preparation of agricultural water management plans in California. An FAO-56 based web application has been developed to facilitate retrospective evaluation of ETAW, and hence CCUF, at field level. The current application is optimized for prevailing climate in four of the state’s main growing regions: San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento Valley, Central Coast, and North Coast. User inputs include crop type, soil texture, irrigation method, daily irrigation volume, daily rainfall, and seasonal start/stop dates to define the analysis period. Time series of fractional green canopy cover (Fc), based on Landsat and Sentinel-2 Earth-resource satellite observations, are imported from NASA’s Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) system. Grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) time series are accessed from Spatial CIMIS (California Irrigation Management Information System). Daily crop height (h) is estimated as a simple function of typical maximum height for the given crop type (from FAO-56) and Fc. A vegetation density coefficient (Kd) is derived from Fc and h. Stomatal control factors during mid-and late-season are applied to tree and vine crops. Typical values for minimum daily relative humidity and mean daily windspeed, derived from historical CIMIS weather data, are used to correct for regional deviations from standard climate (defined as RHmin=45%, windspeed =2m/s). The resulting daily basal crop coefficient (Kcb) represents the ET of a well-watered crop with minimal soil evaporation, relative to ETo. A soil water balance sub-model for the top 0.1 m is used to calculate daily evaporation coefficients (Ke). A second sub-model applies to the root zone to calculate crop water stress coefficients (Ks) and effective precipitation (Pe), which is the fraction of rainfall that is available for crop use. Those coefficients are combined with Kcb and ETo to calculate daily ETc. ETAW is then derived as cumulative ETc less cumulative Pe. For verification purposes, sensor installations were used to measure seasonal ETc in commercial fields for several annual and perennial specialty crops by soil water balance and energy balance methods. Model estimates of seasonal ETc show mean absolute error of <10% compared to the ground measurements.

Derivation↗

NASA Tech Briefs, February 2012

This issue contains the following briefs: (1) Optical Comb from a Whispering Gallery Mode Resonator for Spectroscopy and Astronomy Instruments Calibration (2) Real-Time Flight Envelope Monitoring System (3) Nemesis Autonomous Test System (4) Mirror Metrology Using Nano-Probe Supports (5) Automated Lab-on-a-Chip Electrophoresis System (6) Techniques for Down-Sampling a Measured Surface Height Map for Model Validation (7) Multi-Component, Multi-Point Interferometric Rayleigh/Mie Doppler Velocimeter (8) Frequency to Voltage Converter Analog Front-End Prototype (9) Dust-Tolerant Intelligent Electrical Connection System (10) Gigabit Ethernet Asynchronous Clock Compensation FIFO (11) High-Speed, Multi-Channel Serial ADC LVDS Interface for Xilinx Virtex-5 FPGA (12) Glovebox for GeoLab Subsystem in HDU1-PEM (13) Modified Process Reduces Porosity when Soldering in Reduced Gravity Environments (14) Use of Functionalized Carbon Nanotubes for Covalent Attachment of Nanotubes to Silicon (15) Flexible Plug Repair for Shuttle Wing Leading Edge (16) Three Dimensionally Interlinked, Dense, Solid Form of Single-Walled CNT Ropes (17) Axel Robotic Platform for Crater and Extreme Terrain Exploration (18) Site Tamper and Material Plow Tool - STAMP (19) Magnetic Interface for Segmented Mirror Assembly (20) Transpiration-Cooled Spacecraft-Insulation-Repair Fasteners (21) Fluorescence-Based Sensor for Monitoring Activation of Lunar Dust (22) Aperture Ion Source (23) Virtual Ultrasound Guidance for Inexperienced Operators (24) Model-Based Fault Diagnosis: Performing Root Cause and Impact Analyses in Real Time (25) Interactive Schematic Integration Within the Propellant System Modeling Environment (26) Magnetic and Electric Field Polarizations of Oblique Magnetospheric Chorus Waves (27) Variable Sampling Mapping.

Source record↗

CFD Study of the J2-X LOX Two-Bladed Inducer in the Presence of a Circumferential Groove

Results are presented of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study done in support of water flow experiments of the J-2X Oxidizer Turbopump (OTP) 2-bladed inducer with a circumferential groove that were conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Sub-scale water flow testing results indicate that the circumferential groove greatly reduces synchronous cavitation and subsequent bearing loads at a minimal performance cost, but the energy reappears as high order cavitation (HOC) that spans a relatively large frequency range. Thus, HOC may have implications for the full-scale OTP inducer in terms of reduced structural margin at higher mode frequencies. Simulations using the LOCI-Stream CFD program were conducted in order to explore the root physical cause of the HOC. It was found that the axial recirculation pattern in the circumferential groove causes high-swirl fluid to interact with the nearly-axial incoming fluid just above the inducer blades. The high-shear interface between the fluids is Kelvin-Helmholtz unstable, resulting in trains of low pressure regions or 'pearls' forming near the upstream edge of the groove. When the pressure in these regions becomes low enough and they get cut by the blade leading edge, HOC is thought to occur. Although further work is required, the numerical models indicate that the root cause of HOC is hydrodynamic. That is, the pearls are always present, even when cavitation is not. Comparisons to ongoing water flow experiments will be discussed, as well as predictions for the full-scale OTP inducer.

Coker, Robert↗

Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

Babcock, Chad↗

Inferring Land Surface Model Parameters for the Assimilation of Satellite-Based L-Band Brightness Temperature Observations into a Soil Moisture Analysis System

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission provides global measurements of L-band brightness temperatures at horizontal and vertical polarization and a variety of incidence angles that are sensitive to moisture and temperature conditions in the top few centimeters of the soil. These L-band observations can therefore be assimilated into a land surface model to obtain surface and root zone soil moisture estimates. As part of the observation operator, such an assimilation system requires a radiative transfer model (RTM) that converts geophysical fields (including soil moisture and soil temperature) into modeled L-band brightness temperatures. At the global scale, the RTM parameters and the climatological soil moisture conditions are still poorly known. Using look-up tables from the literature to estimate the RTM parameters usually results in modeled L-band brightness temperatures that are strongly biased against the SMOS observations, with biases varying regionally and seasonally. Such biases must be addressed within the land data assimilation system. In this presentation, the estimation of the RTM parameters is discussed for the NASA GEOS-5 land data assimilation system, which is based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the Catchment land surface model. In the GEOS-5 land data assimilation system, soil moisture and brightness temperature biases are addressed in three stages. First, the global soil properties and soil hydraulic parameters that are used in the Catchment model were revised to minimize the bias in the modeled soil moisture, as verified against available in situ soil moisture measurements. Second, key parameters of the "tau-omega" RTM were calibrated prior to data assimilation using an objective function that minimizes the climatological differences between the modeled L-band brightness temperatures and the corresponding SMOS observations. Calibrated parameters include soil roughness parameters, vegetation structure parameters, and the single scattering albedo. After this climatological calibration, the modeling system can provide L-band brightness temperatures with a global mean absolute bias of less than 10K against SMOS observations, across multiple incidence angles and for horizontal and vertical polarization. Third, seasonal and regional variations in the residual biases are addressed by estimating the vegetation optical depth through state augmentation during the assimilation of the L-band brightness temperatures. This strategy, tested here with SMOS data, is part of the baseline approach for the Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture data product from the planned Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗

Graph Neural Networks for Parameterized Quantum Circuits Expressibility Estimation (Rev.1)

Parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs) are fundamental to quantum machine learning (QML), quantum optimization, and variational quantum algorithms (VQAs). The expressibility of PQCs is a measure that determines their capability to harness the full potential of the quantum state space. It is thus a crucial guidepost to know when selecting a particular PQC ansatz. However, the existing technique for expressibility computation through statistical estimation requires a large number of samples, which poses significant challenges due to time and computational resource constraints. This paper introduces a novel approach for expressibility estimation of PQCs using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). We demonstrate the predictive power of our GNN model with a dataset consisting of 25,000 samples from the noiseless IBM QASM Simulator and 12,000 samples from three distinct noisy quantum backends. The model accurately estimates expressibility, with root mean square errors (RMSE) of 0.05 and 0.06 for the noiseless and noisy backends, respectively. We compare our model’s predictions with reference circuits from Sim et al. and IBM Qiskit’s hardwareefficient ansatz sets to further evaluate our model’s performance. Our experimental evaluation in noiseless and noisy scenarios reveals a close alignment with ground truth expressibility values, highlighting the model’s efficacy. Moreover, our model exhibits promising extrapolation capabilities, predicting expressibility values with low RMSE for out-of-range qubit circuits trained solely on only up to 5-qubit circuit sets. This work thus provides a reliable means of efficiently evaluating the expressibility of diverse PQCs on noiseless simulators and hardware.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Positive correlations between soil C stabilization and loss are regulated by roots, minerals, and microbes

Modern conceptual models of soil organic carbon (SOC) cycling place a strong focus on the microbe-mineral interactions that regulate C stabilization. However, the formation of ‘stable’ soil organic matter, which consists mainly of microbial residues bonded to mineral surfaces, is inextricably linked to C loss through microbial respiration. Therefore, what is the net impact of microbial metabolism on the total quantity of C held in the soil? To address this question, we constructed artificial root-soil systems to identify controls on C cycling across the plant-microbe-mineral continuum, simultaneously quantifying the formation of persistent mineral-associated C and C losses to respiration. Roots and minerals interacted to regulate these processes: while roots stimulated respiratory C losses and depleted mineral-associated C pools in low-activity clays, roots triggered formation of stable C in high-activity clays. Moreover, we observed a strong positive correlation between the formation of mineral-associated C and respiration. This suggests that the growth of persistent C pools which can resist subsequent disturbance comes at the expense of C loss from the system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of residue removal and tillage on greenhouse gas emissions in continuous corn systems as simulated with RZWQM2

Agricultural production is a major source of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) globally. The effects of conservation practices on soil CO 2 and N 2 O emissions remain a high degree of uncertainty. In this study, soil CO 2 and N 2 O emissions under different residue and tillage practices in an irrigated, continuous corn system, were investigated using the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2). Combinations of no/high stover removal (NR and HR, respectively) and no-till/conventional tillage (NT and CT, respectively) field experiments were tested over the four crop-years (Apr. 2011–Apr. 2015). The model was calibrated using the NRCT, and validated with other treatments. The simulation results showed that soil volumetric water content (VWC) in the NR treatments (i.e., NRCT and NRNT) was 1.3%–1.9% higher than that in the HR treatments (i.e., HRCT and HRNT) averaged across the four years. A higher amount of CO 2 and N 2 O emissions were simulated in the NRCT across the four years (annual average: 7034 kg C/ha/yr for CO 2 and 3.8 kg N/ha/yr for N 2 O), and lower emissions were in the HRNT (annual average: 6329 kg C/ha/yr and 3.7 kg N/ha/yr for N 2 O). A long-term simulation (2001–2015) suggested that the CO 2 and N 2 O emissions were closely correlated with the stover removal degree (SRD), tillage, VWC, soil temperature (ST), years in management (Y), and fertilizer application. Stover and tillage practices had cumulative effects on CO 2 emissions. The simulated annual CO 2 emissions in 1st year from NRCT, NRNT, and HRCT were 7.8%, 0.0%, and 7.7% higher than that from HRNT, respectively; then the emissions in 15th year were 63.6%, 47.7%, and 29.1% higher, respectively. Meanwhile, there were no cumulative effects on N 2 O emissions. Furthermore, the results also demonstrated that the RZWQM2 is a promising tool for evaluating the long-term effects of CO 2 and N 2 O emissions on different conservation practices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards grounding nuclear physics in QCD

Exascale computing could soon enable a predictive theory of nuclear structure and reactions rooted in the Standard Model, with quantifiable and systematically improvable uncertainties. Such a predictive theory will help exploit experiments that use nucleons and nuclei as laboratories for testing the Standard Model and its limitations. Examples include direct dark matter detection, neutrinoless double beta decay, and searches for permanent electric dipole moments of the neutron and atoms. It will also help connect QCD to the properties of cold neutron stars and hot supernova cores. We discuss how a quantitative bridge between QCD and the properties of nuclei and nuclear matter will require a synthesis of lattice QCD (especially as applied to two- and three- nucleon interactions), effective field theory, and ab initio methods for solving the nuclear many-body problem. While there are significant challenges that must be addressed in developing this triad of theoretical tools, the rapid advance of computing is accelerating progress. In particular, we focus this review on the anticipated advances from lattice QCD and how these advances will impact few-body effective theories of nuclear physics by providing critical input, such as constraints on unknown low-energy constants of the effective (field) theories. We also review particular challenges that must be overcome for the successful application of lattice QCD for low-energy nuclear physics. We describe progress in developing few-body effective (field) theories of nuclear physics, with an emphasis on HOBET, a non-relativistic effective theory of nuclear physics, which is less common in the literature. We use the examples of neutrinoless double beta decay and the nuclear-matter equation of state to illustrate how the coupling of lattice QCD to effective theory might impact our understanding of symmetries and exotic astrophysical environments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗