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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Phenology of Photosynthesis in Winter‐Dormant Temperate and Boreal Forests: Long‐Term Observations From Flux Towers and Quantitative Evaluation of Phenology Models

Abstract We examined the seasonality of photosynthesis in 46 evergreen needleleaf (evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF)) and deciduous broadleaf (deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF)) forests across North America and Eurasia. We quantified the onset and end (Start GPP and End GPP ) of photosynthesis in spring and autumn based on the response of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 to sunlight. To test the hypothesis that snowmelt is required for photosynthesis to begin, these were compared with end of snowmelt derived from soil temperature. ENF forests achieved 10% of summer photosynthetic capacity ∼3 weeks before end of snowmelt, while DBF forests achieved that capacity ∼4 weeks afterward. DBF forests increased photosynthetic capacity in spring faster (1.95% d −1 ) than ENF (1.10% d −1 ), and their active season length (End GPP –Start GPP ) was ∼50 days shorter. We hypothesized that warming has influenced timing of the photosynthesis season. We found minimal evidence for long‐term change in Start GPP , End GPP , or air temperature, but their interannual anomalies were significantly correlated. Warmer weather was associated with earlier Start GPP (1.3–2.5 days °C −1 ) or later End GPP (1.5–1.8 days °C −1 , depending on forest type and month). Finally, we tested whether existing phenological models could predict Start GPP and End GPP . For ENF forests, air temperature‐ and daylength‐based models provided best predictions for Start GPP , while a chilling‐degree‐day model was best for End GPP . The root mean square errors (RMSE) between predicted and observed Start GPP and End GPP were 11.7 and 11.3 days, respectively. For DBF forests, temperature‐ and daylength‐based models yielded the best results (RMSE 6.3 and 10.5 days).

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Measurement Framework For Post-deployment Artificial Intelligence (ai) Integrated Systems

Resilience is largely defined as the ability to adapt or recover from adverse conditions, stresses, attacks, or compromises on systems that use or are enabled by digital resources. In Artificial Intelligence Management and Research for Advanced Networked Testbed Hub (AMARANTH), resilience is measured in the amount of time it took from the beginning of a testing period for the model to reach predictions outside of the original 95% confidence interval or using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence theorem, the Population Stability Index (PSI), and traditional methods such as root mean squared error (RMSE) threshold. Artificial Intelligence (AI) model drift is of significant concern when deploying AI-integrated systems into critical and/or secure environments. Drift can impact resilience of the AI-integrated system post-deployment and requires consistent maintenance and upkeep to ensure the model is accurate and precise. To quantify model drift and predict the point when a model's drift becomes unacceptable, we describe using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, Population Stability Index (PSI) and/or confidence interval width estimations to determine the point of failure and time to failure of a model post-deployment. Through simple code functions, the KL-divergence, PSI, confidence interval, and root mean squared (RMSE) point of failures can be used to derive when a model needs to be maintained as well as the impact of adversarial action through statistical means.

Yockey, Patience [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
DOE OSTI2022

The intermediate in a nitrate-responsive ω-amidase pathway in plants may signal ammonium assimilation status

Abstract A metabolite of ammonium assimilation was previously theorized to be involved in the coordination of the overall nitrate response in plants. Here we show that 2-hydroxy-5-oxoproline, made by transamination of glutamine, the first product of ammonium assimilation, may be involved in signaling a plant’s ammonium assimilation status. In leaves, 2-hydroxy-5-oxoproline met four foundational requirements to be such a signal. First, when it was applied to foliage, enzyme activities of nitrate reduction and ammonium assimilation increased; the activities of key tricarboxylic acid cycle-associated enzymes that help to supply carbon skeletons for amino acid synthesis also increased. Second, its leaf pools increased as nitrate availability increased. Third, the pool size of its precursor, Gln, reflected ammonium assimilation rather than photorespiration. Fourth, it was widely conserved among monocots, dicots, legumes, and nonlegumes and in plants with C3 or C4 metabolism. Made directly from the first product of ammonium assimilation, 2-hydroxy-5-oxoproline acted as a nitrate uptake stimulant. When 2-hydroxy-5-oxoproline was provided to roots, the plant’s nitrate uptake rate approximately doubled. Plants exogenously provided with 2-hydroxy-5-oxoproline to either roots or leaves accumulated greater biomass. A model was constructed that included the proposed roles of 2-hydroxy-5-oxoproline as a signal molecule of ammonium assimilation status in leaves, as a stimulator of nitrate uptake by roots and nitrate downloading from the xylem. In summary, a glutamine metabolite made in the ω-amidase pathway stimulated nitrate uptake by roots and was likely to be a signal of ammonium assimilation status in leaves. A chemical synthesis method for 2-hydroxy-5-oxoproline was also developed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using root and soil traits to forecast woody encroachment dynamics in mesic grassland

Grasslands are a widespread and globally important biome providing key ecosystem services including C storage and regulation of the water cycle. Grasslands face multiple threats, including changes in drought intensity and woody encroachment - a process that results in increased woody plant abundance corresponding with decreased herbaceous plant abundance. The combination of reduced soil moisture and shifts in plant dominance from herbaceous to woody are likely to alter C pools in the soil profile. We currently do not have the capacity to predict either the magnitude or rates of change in these C pools. In order to predict changes in grassland vegetation structure and the associated impacts on C cycling requires greater understanding of changes in soil C pools at multiple soil depths, and the responses of these pools to changes in precipitation. To support and perform this parameterization of Land Surface Models, we performed detailed investigations of root (anatomical and physiological) and soil traits (microbial function) at varying soil depths, to capture the belowground impacts of changing dominant plant growth forms (grasses to shrubs) and the impacts of frequent drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel in vivo mouse intervertebral disc degeneration model induced by compressive suture

Intervertebral disc degeneration (IDD) is the root cause of many musculoskeletal disorders of the spine. However, the etiology of IDD is complex and still not well understood. Animal models of IDD would be useful in deciphering the underlying mechanisms. But the existing animal models have their limitations. Therefore, to establish a novel mouse model that can simulate the human IDD process in vivo, we proposed to carefully circumcise the 2 mm-wide tail skin and then compressively sutured the defect with a simple end-to-end suture to exert excessive pressure on the disc. After 1-week, 2-week, and 4-week compression, the mice were sacrificed and the intervertebral discs were harvested for tissue analysis. The radiological, morphological, and molecular modifications of intervertebral discs were measured to characterize this model. Radiologically, the water content of the intervertebral disc decreased significantly after 2-week compression. Morphologically, the nucleus pulposus showed a decrease in volume and the number of notochordal cells. The compressive suture also broke the balance between anabolic and catabolic enzymes in nucleus pulposus, which led to the remodeling of the extracellular matrix in nucleus pulposus as the content of aggrecan and collagen II decreased. The compressive suture could induce intervertebral discs degeneration in a more reasonable way, which was solely influenced by mechanical loading, as the mice caudal vertebrae still moved freely after the operation. This kind of animal model could be adapted as a reliable in vivo mouse IDD model for the research regarding the etiology and treatments of IDD.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The auxin efflux carrier PIN1a regulates vascular patterning in cereal roots

Barley (Hordeum vulgare) is an important global cereal crop and a model in genetic studies. Despite advances in characterising barley genomic resources, few mutant studies have identified genes controlling root architecture and anatomy, which plays a critical role in capturing soil resources. Our phenotypic screening of a TILLING mutant collection identified line TM5992 exhibiting a short-root phenotype compared with wild-type (WT) Morex background. Outcrossing TM5992 with barley variety Proctor and subsequent SNP array-based bulk segregant analysis, fine mapped the mutation to a cM scale. Exome sequencing pinpointed a mutation in the candidate gene HvPIN1a, further confirming this by analysing independent mutant alleles. Detailed analysis of root growth and anatomy in Hvpin1a mutant alleles exhibited a slower growth rate, shorter apical meristem and striking vascular patterning defects compared to WT. Expression and mutant analyses of PIN1 members in the closely related cereal brachypodium (Brachypodium distachyon) revealed that BdPIN1a and BdPIN1b were redundantly expressed in root vascular tissues but only Bdpin1a mutant allele displayed root vascular defects similar to Hvpin1a. We conclude that barley PIN1 genes have sub-functionalised in cereals, compared to Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana), where PIN1a sequences control root vascular patterning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Self‐gated, dynamic contrast‐enhanced magnetic resonance imaging with compressed‐sensing reconstruction for evaluating endothelial permeability in the aortic root of atherosclerotic mice

High‐risk atherosclerotic plaques are characterized by active inflammation and abundant leaky microvessels. We present a self‐gated, dynamic contrast‐enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE‐MRI) acquisition with compressed sensing reconstruction and apply it to assess longitudinal changes in endothelial permeability in the aortic root of Apoe −/− atherosclerotic mice during natural disease progression. Twenty‐four, 8‐week‐old, female Apoe −/− mice were divided into four groups (n = 6 each) and imaged with self‐gated DCE‐MRI at 4, 8, 12, and 16 weeks after high‐fat diet initiation, and then euthanized for CD68 immunohistochemistry for macrophages. Eight additional mice were kept on a high‐fat diet and imaged longitudinally at the same time points. Aortic‐root pseudo‐concentration curves were analyzed using a validated piecewise linear model. Contrast agent wash‐in and washout slopes ( b 1 and b 2 ) were measured as surrogates of aortic root endothelial permeability and compared with macrophage density by immunohistochemistry. b 2 , indicating contrast agent washout, was significantly higher in mice kept on an high‐fat diet for longer periods of time ( p = 0.03). Group comparison revealed significant differences between mice on a high‐fat diet for 4 versus 16 weeks ( p = 0.03). Macrophage density also significantly increased with diet duration ( p = 0.009). Spearman correlation between b 2 from DCE‐MRI and macrophage density indicated a weak relationship between the two parameters (r = 0.28, p = 0.20). Validated piecewise linear modeling of the DCE‐MRI data showed that the aortic root contrast agent washout rate is significantly different during disease progression. Further development of this technique from a single‐slice to a 3D acquisition may enable better investigation of the relationship between in vivo imaging of endothelial permeability and atherosclerotic plaques' genetic, molecular, and cellular makeup in this important model of disease.

Calcagno, Claudia↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Drilling Performance at The Geysers with Machine Learning Methods Using Geologic Data

A recent well, GDC-36, was drilled in The Geysers Geothermal Field served in a Department of Energy-industry to demonstrate improved drilling performance with polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bits. Both PDC and roller cone drill bits were used to drill this well. Key challenges encountered during drilling included lost circulation in the mud-drilled section, and bit damage interfacial severity in the deeper, air-drilled section. The objective of this study is to evaluate the drilling performance in relation to the local geological characteristics using machine learning methods. By applying K-clustering to the sonic log data, we were able to identify areas correlated with measured lost circulation. Also, the boundaries defined by clustering of the mineralogical and lithological data from the mud logs correlate well with interfacial severity during drilling. A random forest model was employed to build correlation between drilling data and rock strength. The confined compressive strength (CCS) of the rock in the training of the machine learning model was inferred from the dipole sonic log. The R-squared of the testing data is 0.78, and the RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) is 0.06. The trained model was used to forecast rock strength for the section where sonic log data are not available. CCS could also be inferred from mud logs provided the relationship between mineralogy and rock strength is established through core testing data.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Annual Herbaceous Plants Exhibit Altered Morphological Traits in Response to Altered Precipitation and Drought Patterns in Semiarid Sandy Grassland, Northern China

The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events and severe drought are predicted to increase in semiarid areas due to global climate change. Plant morphological traits can reflect plant responses to a changing environment, such as altered precipitation or drought patterns. In this study, we examined the response of morphological traits of root, stem, leaf and reproduction meristems of annual herbaceous species to altered precipitation and drought patterns in a semiarid sandy grassland. The study involved a control treatment (100% of background precipitation) and the following six altered precipitation treatments: (1) P(+): precipitation increased by 30%, (2) P(++): precipitation increased by 60%, (3) P(-): precipitation decreased by 30%, (4) P(--): precipitation decreased by 60%, (5) drought 1 (D1): 46-day drought from May 1st to June 15th, and (6) drought 2 (D2): 46-day drought from July 1st to August 15th. P(++) significantly increased root length, flower length-to-width ratio, both P(+) and P(++) significantly increased stem length and flower number in the plant growing seasons, while all of them decreased under P(-) and P(--). The annual herbaceous plants marginally increased the number of second-level stem branches and stem diameter in order to better resist the severe drought stress under P(--). P(+) and P(++) increased the root, stem, leaf, and flower dry weight, with the flower dry weight accounting for a larger proportion than the other aboveground parts. Under D2, the plants used the limited water resources more efficiently by increasing the root-to-shoot ratio compared with P(-), P(--) and D1, which reflects biomass allocation to belowground increased. The linear mixed-effects models and redundancy analysis showed that the root-to-shoot ratio and the dry weight of various plant components were significantly affected by morphological traits and altered precipitation magnitude. Our results showed that the herbaceous species have evolved morphological trait responses that allow them to adapt to climate change. Such differences in morphological traits may ultimately affect the growing patterns of annual herbaceous species, enhancing their drought-tolerant capacity in semiarid sandy grassland during the ongoing climate change.

Sun, Shan-Shan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Ultra-filtration(UF) units are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square (RMSE) metric. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing CCRO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks that enhance process efficiency and reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Argon equation of state data to 1 TPa: Shock compression experiments and simulations

Argon is the most abundant noble gas on Earth and its noble, atomic fluid nature makes it an excellent candidate for comparison of experiment and theory at extreme conditions. For this study, we performed a combined computational and experimental study on shock compressed cryogenic liquid argon. Using Sandia's Z machine, we shock compressed liquid argon to 600 GPa and reshock states up to 950 GPa. Laser shock experiments at the Omega Laser facility extend the principal Hugoniot to 1000 GPa and provided temperature data along the principal Hugoniot. The plate impact experiments and laser shock experiments used well-characterized impedance matching standards and demonstrate consistent results between the two platforms over a common range. Density functional theory based molecular dynamics simulations provided additional data on the Hugoniot to 600 GPa. The combined experimental data and simulation results provide constraints on the development of new equation of state models at extreme conditions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stability of tropical forest tree carbon-water relations in a rainfall exclusion treatment through shifts in effective water uptake depth

Increasing severity and frequency of drought is predicted for large portions of the terrestrial biosphere, with major impacts already documented in wet tropical forests. Using a 4-year rainfall exclusion experiment in the Daintree Rainforest in northeast Australia, we examined canopy tree responses to reduced precipitation and soil water availability by quantifying seasonal changes in plant hydraulic and carbon traits for 11 tree species between control and drought treatments. Even with reduced soil volumetric water content in the upper 1 m of soil in the drought treatment, we found no significant difference between treatments for predawn and midday leaf water potential, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, foliar stable carbon isotope composition, leaf mass per area, turgor loss point, xylem vessel anatomy, or leaf and stem nonstructural carbohydrates. While empirical measurements of aboveground traits revealed homeostatic maintenance of plant water status and traits in response to reduced soil moisture, modeled belowground dynamics revealed that trees in the drought treatment shifted the depth from which water was acquired to deeper soil layers. Finally, these findings reveal that belowground acclimation of tree water uptake depth may buffer tropical rainforests from more severe droughts that may arise in future with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning-based Surrogate Model for Efficient Reservoir Simulation in Large-scale Geological Carbon Storage: Application in IBDP Dataset

This project introduces an advanced deep learning (DL)-based surrogate modeling approach to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of large-scale geological carbon storage (GCS) simulations. Using the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset as training data, the study employs a residual U-Net architecture to predict critical state variables such as pressure and CO₂ saturation, as well as CO₂ plume migration. By incorporating key geological parameters (e.g., porosity, permeability, and rock facies) and physics-informed inputs like the diffusive time of flight and time step, the DL model effectively reduces computational complexity while maintaining robust physical constraints. Compared to traditional simulators like Eclipse, the DL model achieves remarkable accuracy, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.57 psi for pressure and 0.007 for saturation, and dramatically reduces computational time from hours to just 69.9 seconds for 50-step simulations. These results demonstrate the potential of innovative DL methodologies to improve the predictivity and operational efficiency of GCS simulations, providing a reliable foundation for decision-making in CCS operations. Supported by the SMART initiative, this project underscores the success of leveraging computational innovations to advance CCS technologies.

advanced deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unsupervised Process Anomaly Detection and Identification Using the Leave-One-Variable-Out Approach

Automated anomaly detection and identification can signal equipment issues and pinpoint causes in large-scale industrial systems. For systems with limited failure history, unsupervised machine learning methods can be utilized as they do not require past failures. This study introduces the leave-one-variable-out (LOVO) model, which masks one variable at a time to predict the others, learning underlying process correlations. Detection performance was assessed with synthetic and experimental data, while identification performance used only synthetic data due to its ability to generate labeled anomaly types. For detection using synthetic data, the LOVO model generally outperformed comparative models; while using experimental data, the comparative methods outperformed the LOVO model. However, the comparative methods required selecting a latent size, and these conclusions pertain to using the optimal size. In practice, it would not be feasible to always select the optimal value, and incorrect selections impacted performance. In contrast, the LOVO model does not require a latent space. For identification using synthetic data, the LOVO model was slightly outperformed in interpretability and repeatability but still demonstrated impressive results. These outcomes suggest that the LOVO model is an effective model and may be more easily implemented without the challenging tuning process of selecting a latent size.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Control Oriented Model of Cabin-HVAC System in a Long-Haul Trucks for Energy Management Applications

Super Truck II is a 48V mild hybrid class 8 truck with an all auxiliary loads powered purely by the battery pack. Electric Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) load is the most prominent battery load during the hotel period, when the truck driver is resting inside the sleeper. For the PACCAR Super Truck II (ST-II) project a 48 V battery system provides the required power during the hotel period. A cabin-HVAC model estimates the electric load on the 48V battery system, allowing the control system to implement an efficient energy management strategy that avoids engine idling during the hotel period. The thermal model accounts for the sun load due to the time of day and the geographic location of the truck during the hotel period. The cabin-HVAC model has two parts. First, a grey box model with two heat exchangers (Condenser and Evaporator) working in unison with refrigerant mass flow rate as an input and HVAC load as an output. Second, a two-node cabin model formulated to estimate the cabin temperature as a function of the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), HVAC load and ambient temperature. The models are calibrated using experimental cabin-HVAC system data as for long-haul class 8 truck (e.g. ST-II). Here, the model simulations show that the overall Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of 0.4°C between the experimental and simulated cabin temperature.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Blind Modeling Validation Exercises Using the Horizontal Dry Cask Simulator

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established a need to understand the thermal-hydraulic properties of dry storage systems for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in response to a shift towards the storage of high-burnup (HBU) fuel (> 45 gigawatt days per metric ton of uranium, or GWd/MTU). This shift raises concerns regarding cladding integrity, which faces increased risk at the higher temperatures within spent fuel assemblies present within HBU fuel compared to low-burnup fuel (≤ 45 GWd/MTU). A dry cask simulator (DCS) was built at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, New Mexico to produce validation-quality data that can be used to test the accuracy of the modeling used to predict cladding temperatures. These temperatures are critical to evaluating cladding integrity throughout the storage cycle of commercial spent nuclear fuel. A model validation exercise was previously carried out for the DCS in a vertical configuration. Lessons learned during the previous validation exercise have been applied to a new, blind study using a horizontal dry cask simulator (HDCS). Three modeling institutions – the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and Empresa Nacional del Uranio, S.A., S.M.E. (ENUSA) – were granted access to the input parameters from the DCS Handbook, SAND2017-13058R, and results from a limited data set from the horizontal BWR dry cask simulator tests reported in the HDCS update report, SAND2019-11688R. With this information, each institution was tasked to calculate peak cladding temperatures and air mass flow rates for ten HDCS test cases. Axial as well as vertical and horizontal transverse temperature profiles were also calculated. These calculations were done using modeling codes (ANSYS/Fluent, STAR-CCM+, or COBRA-SFS), each with their own unique combination of modeling assumptions and boundary conditions. For this validation study, the ten test cases of the horizontal dry cask simulator were defined by three independent variables – fuel assembly decay heat (0.5 kW, 1 kW, 2.5 W, and 5 kW), internal backfill pressure (100 kPa and 800 kPa), and backfill gas (helium and air). The plots provided in Chapter 3 of this report show the axial, vertical, and horizontal temperature profiles obtained from the dry cask simulator experiments in the horizontal configuration and the corresponding models used to describe the thermal-hydraulic behavior of this system. The tables provided in Chapter 3 illustrate the closeness of fit of the model data to the experiment data through root mean square (RMS) calculations of the error in peak cladding temperatures (PCTs), PCT axial locations, axial temperature profiles, vertical and horizontal temperature profiles at two different axial locations, and air mass flow rates for the ten test cases, normalized by the experimental results. The model results are assigned arbitrary model numbers to retain anonymity. Due to the relatively flat axial temperature profiles, small temperature gradients resulted in large deviations of all models’ PCT axial location from the experimental PCT axial location. When the PCT axial location error is excluded in the calculation of the combined RMS of the normalized errors that considers PCT, the temperature profiles, and the air mass flow rates, the model data fits the experimental data to within 5%. When the vault information is excluded, the model data fits the experimental data to within 2.5%. An error analysis was developed further for one model, using the model and experimental uncertainties in each validation parameter to calculate validation uncertainties. The uncertainties for each parameter were used to define quantifiable validation criteria. For this analysis, the model was considered validated for a given comparison metric if the normalized error in that metric divided by the validation uncertainty was less than or equal to 1. When considering the combined RMS of the normalized errors of all metrics divided by their validation uncertainties, the model was found to have satisfied the criterion for model validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗