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Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

The International Space Station National Lab (ISSNL) was established through Congressional authority in 2005 and has been managed by a nonprofit called the Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS) since 2011 to support research, development, education, and commercial activities in low-Earth orbit (LEO). NASA leadership is considering next steps for microgravity and orbital activities in LEO in preparation for the retirement of the International Space Station (ISS) and transition to Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) in the 2030 timeframe. Specifically, our study team within the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy addressed the question: What are potential models for an ISS National Lab facilitating government-funded or subsidized activities on a commercial LEO platform after the transition of the ISS to one or more private platforms? To inform the trade space of potential models, we conducted over 40 discussions with stakeholders internal and external to NASA and reviewed over 35 documents related to LEO legislation, commercialization, models, and activities. Following the extensive literature review and discussions with diverse stakeholders, we defined and evaluated six models, in addition to the current ISSNL model. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios (dynamic, steady, and limited growth of the commercial LEO market and activities) and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria (ability to meet NASA’s needs, adaptability, opportunity for collaboration, market sustainability, and equity and accessibility). The six models in the future trade space were: • Government Research Broker: Customizable research efforts on transport vehicles and CLDs • Innovation Campus: Modern terrestrial campus with workforce focus • Anchor Tenant: Long-term, substantial agreement for leasing space on a single CLD • Fee for Service: Free market approach with NASA-sponsored grants and service/data buys • Matchmaker: Neutral third-party connecting users to platforms • Institute Network: Network of separate but related efforts to enable commercial scaling The Government Research Broker model performed best across the scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibited positive aspects, the two models performed most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. The six models presented in this study are representative of the potential trade space and are illustrative examples. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align to their priorities more closely by using combinations of the unique model features provided in our analysis. The optimal model is likely a combination of features from multiple models. Building upon this work to best position NASA and the diverse stakeholders of LEO activities for success post-ISS, further work will explore the near-term impact of preparing for the transition of the ISS to CLDs by identifying opportunities for modifying the current ISSNL-CASIS partnership. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank the many reviewers and discussants, internal and external to NASA, that contributed to the work.

Erica Rodgers↗

NASA NTRS2019

Dynamical axion misalignment with small instantons

We present a new mechanism to relax the initial misalignment angle of the QCD axion and raise the cosmological bound on the axion decay constant. The QCD axion receives a contribution from small UV instantons during inflation, which raises its mass to the inflationary Hubble scale. This makes the axion start rolling down its potential early on. In the scenario, the standard model Yukawa couplings of quarks are dynamical, being of order one during the inflationary era and reducing to their standard model values once it ends. This means that after inflation the contribution of the small instantons is suppressed, and the axion potential reduces to the standard one from the usual IR instantons. As a result, when the axion starts to oscillate again after inflation, the initial misalignment angle is suppressed due to the dynamics during inflation. While the general idea of dynamical axion misalignment has been discussed in the literature before, we present in detail the major bottleneck on the mismatching between the minima of the axion potentials during and after inflation, and how it is circumvented in our scenario via the Froggatt-Nielsen mechanism. Taking into account of all the constraints, we find that the axion decay constant could be raised to the GUT scale, 1015 GeV, in our scenario.

Manuel A. Buen-Abad↗

NASA NTRS2004

Nucleation in Synoptically Forced Cirrostratus

Formation and evolution of cirrostratus in response to weak, uniform and constant synoptic forcing is simulated using a one-dimensional numerical model with explicit microphysics, in which the particle size distribution in each grid box is fully resolved. A series of tests of the model response to nucleation modes (homogeneous-freezing-only/heterogeneous nucleation) and heterogeneous nucleation parameters are performed. In the case studied here, nucleation is first activated in the prescribed moist layer. A continuous cloud-top nucleation zone with a depth depending on the vertical humidity gradient and one of the nucleation parameters is developed afterward. For the heterogeneous nucleation cases, intermittent nucleation zones in the mid-upper portion of the cloud form where the relative humidity is on the rise, because existent ice crystals do not uptake excess water vapor efficiently, and ice nuclei (IN) are available. Vertical resolution as fine as 1 m is required for realistic simulation of the homogeneous-freezing-only scenario, while the model resolution requirement is more relaxed in the cases where heterogeneous nucleation dominates. Bulk microphysical and optical properties are evaluated and compared. Ice particle number flux divergence, which is due to the vertical gradient of the gravity-induced particle sedimentation, is constantly and rapidly changing the local ice number concentration, even in the nucleation zone. When the depth of the nucleation zone is shallow, particle number concentration decreases rapidly as ice particles grow and sediment away from the nucleation zone. When the depth of the nucleation zone is large, a region of high ice number concentration can be sustained. The depth of nucleation zone is an important parameter to be considered in parametric treatments of ice cloud generation.

Lin, R.-F.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Quasi-Static and Dynamic Analysis of Composite Panels: Challenges in Engineering-Level Commercial Software

In engineering applications, where analysis time and efficiency are essential, analytical models and commercially available finite element (FE) material models are the two mainstream methods used to analyze composite crush scenarios. A reliable numerical model addressing the crushing response of composite materials requires a nonlinear progressive damage analysis which includes appropriate failure mechanisms such as matrix cracking, fragmentation, delamination, and fiber breakage. One might be able to address all these interacting failure responses through implementation/validation of a user defined material model or by utilization of a commercially available model, the latter being the most efficient engineering approach. In this paper, the quasi-static and dynamic crushing response of composite specimens, consisting of a C-channel and a corrugated geometry manufactured with carbon fiber/epoxy matrix fabric, are modeled using the progressive composite damage model within ABAQUS. The novel part of this work, which has not been previously addressed in the literature, is the utilization of a detailed parametric study to optimize composite damage model parameters for a given quasi-static crush simulation in ABAQUS. C-channel experiments were used to calibrate the model and then refine/optimize a set of material parameters that best fit the experimental results. These identical parameters were then used to simulate the crush response of the corrugated channel specimens, thereby making it a pure prediction and not a double recalibration. Next, the dynamic response of both panels were predicted, further confirming the predictive capability of the developed numerical model. The effect of parameter variation on the crush response is fully documented for future use in engineering applications utilizing this specific ABAQUS damage model.

Paria Naghipour↗

NASA NTRS2011

Influence of Aerosol Heating on the Stratospheric Transport of the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

On June 15th, 1991 the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (15.1 deg. N, 120.3 Deg. E) in the Philippines injected about 20 Tg of sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere, which was transformed into sulfuric acid aerosol. The large perturbation of the background aerosol caused an increase in temperature in the lower stratosphere of 2-3 K. Even though stratospheric winds climatological]y tend to hinder the air mixing between the two hemispheres, observations have shown that a large part of the SO2 emitted by Mt. Pinatubo have been transported from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere. We simulate the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 global climate model, coupled to the aerosol module GOCART and the stratospheric chemistry module StratChem, to investigate the influence of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo on the stratospheric transport pattern. We perform two ensembles of simulations: the first ensemble consists of runs without coupling between aerosol and radiation. In these simulations the plume of aerosols is treated as a passive tracer and the atmosphere is unperturbed. In the second ensemble of simulations aerosols and radiation are coupled. We show that the set of runs with interactive aerosol produces a larger cross-equatorial transport of the Pinatubo cloud. In our simulations the local heating perturbation caused by the sudden injection of volcanic aerosol changes the pattern of the stratospheric winds causing more intrusion of air from the Northern into the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, we perform simulations changing the injection height of the cloud, and study the transport of the plume resulting from the different scenarios. Comparisons of model results with SAGE II and AVHRR satellite observations will be shown.

Aquila, Valentina↗

NASA NTRS2011

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 510 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modelling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modelling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.

Atmosphere climate chemistry↗

NASA NTRS2004

Fragmentation hierarchy of bright sungrazing comets and the birth and orbital evolution of the Kreutz system. I. Two-superfragment model

A back-and-forth orbit integration technique, developed for our previous investigation of the splitting of the parent of the sungrazers C/1882 R1 and C/1965 S1, is now applied in an effort to understand the history and orbital evolution of the Kreutz sungrazer system, starting with the birth of two subgroups, which show prominently among the bright members and whose inception dates back to the progenitor's breakup into two superfragments. The integration technique is used to reproduce the motion of comet C/1843 D1 - the second brightest sungrazer known and presumably the most massive surviving piece of superfragment I - from the motion of C/1882 R1 - the brightest sungrazer on record and arguably the most massive surviving piece of superfragment II. Running the orbit of C/1882 R1 back to A.D. 326, the progenitor comet is found to have split at a heliocentric distance of 50 AU and nearly 30 yr before perihelion. The superfragments acquired separation velocities of similar to8 m s(-1) in opposite directions. Using the same technique, we show next that (1) the motions of two additional sungrazers, C/1880 C1 and C/1887 B1, are matched extremely well if these objects shared a common parent with C/1843 D1, and (2) C/1963 R1 (Pereyra), the second brightest subgroup I member on record, is more closely related to subgroup II objects (such as C/1882 R1 and C/1965 S1) than to C/1843 D1. This finding raises serious doubts about the major role of the subgroups in the system's orbital history and offers an incentive for considering an alternative dynamical scenario. The fragmentation models for C/1963 R1 and two additional bright sungrazers, C/1945 X1 and C/1970 K1, suggest that (1) these comets may have been the most massive pieces of the fragment populations formed from their respective disintegrating parents, and (2) the course of evolution of the Kreutz system at the upper end of the mass spectrum may be better ascertained from the distribution of the sungrazers' arrival times than from the sources of subgroups. If so, the fragment hierarchy should be determined primarily by the cascading nature of the fragmentation process, which was recently shown by Sekanina to control the evolution of minor fragments as well. The sungrazer system's estimated age is in any case very short, less than 1700 yr.

sungrazing comets↗

NASA NTRS2011

Integrating Models and Observations

For the past ten years, the coronal loops community has held bi-annual workshops to discuss the analysis of coronal loop observations and the latest efforts to model the loop structures. During this time, several heating scenarios have been proposed to explain loop observations. These heating scenarios rely on different heating frequencies, locations, and durations, as well as different loop sub-structure. Often the scenarios are developed to explain an observation, hence all heating scenarios match some observational criteria. The key to discriminating between the competing heating scenarios is to first identify the distinguishing observables. For instance, both effectively steady and nanoflare-heating scenarios can produce quasi-steady intensities. Observing quasi-steady intensities, then, does not help determine which heating scenario is most likely. These heating scenarios may, however, predict different velocities or different emission measure distributions. In this talk, I will discuss a few of the expected observations for some simple heating scenarios. I will ask the modeling community to calculate similar observations for the different heating scenarios to generate a standard list of expected observations. After the community develops this list, comparisons with actual loop observations can then distinguish the most likely heating scenario.

Womebarger, Amy↗

NASA NTRS2007

Reducing a Knowledge-Base Search Space When Data Are Missing

This software addresses the problem of how to efficiently execute a knowledge base in the presence of missing data. Computationally, this is an exponentially expensive operation that without heuristics generates a search space of 1 + 2n possible scenarios, where n is the number of rules in the knowledge base. Even for a knowledge base of the most modest size, say 16 rules, it would produce 65,537 possible scenarios. The purpose of this software is to reduce the complexity of this operation to a more manageable size. The problem that this system solves is to develop an automated approach that can reason in the presence of missing data. This is a meta-reasoning capability that repeatedly calls a diagnostic engine/model to provide prognoses and prognosis tracking. In the big picture, the scenario generator takes as its input the current state of a system, including probabilistic information from Data Forecasting. Using model-based reasoning techniques, it returns an ordered list of fault scenarios that could be generated from the current state, i.e., the plausible future failure modes of the system as it presently stands. The scenario generator models a Potential Fault Scenario (PFS) as a black box, the input of which is a set of states tagged with priorities and the output of which is one or more potential fault scenarios tagged by a confidence factor. The results from the system are used by a model-based diagnostician to predict the future health of the monitored system.

James, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1972

Methodology for the systems engineering process. Volume 3: Operational availability

A detailed description and explanation of the operational availability parameter is presented. The fundamental mathematical basis for operational availability is developed, and its relationship to a system's overall performance effectiveness is illustrated within the context of identifying specific availability requirements. Thus, in attempting to provide a general methodology for treating both hypothetical and existing availability requirements, the concept of an availability state, in conjunction with the more conventional probability-time capability, is investigated. In this respect, emphasis is focused upon a balanced analytical and pragmatic treatment of operational availability within the system design process. For example, several applications of operational availability to typical aerospace systems are presented, encompassing the techniques of Monte Carlo simulation, system performance availability trade-off studies, analytical modeling of specific scenarios, as well as the determination of launch-on-time probabilities. Finally, an extensive bibliography is provided to indicate further levels of depth and detail of the operational availability parameter.

Nelson, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A first-order estimate of shock heating and vaporization in oceanic impacts

The vaporization of water in oceanic impacts of asteroids or comets of multikilometer dimensions is estimated by a semianalytical modeling of impact heating and shock isobar geometry that is based on computer code calculations. The mass of water vaporized in an infinitely deep ocean by the impact of a 10 km diameter asteroid at 25 km/sec (these values have been proposed for the Cretaceous/Tertiary extinction bolide) is approximately equal to the total mass of water vapor present in the earth's atmosphere, and 3-4 orders of magnitude larger than the mass of water vapor in the stratosphere. For projectiles of this size, however, the finite depth of the ocean becomes significant and may considerably reduce the amount of water vapor initially generated by the impact. Climatological models and extinction scenarios invoking the effects of impact-generated water vapor may critically depend on the a priori ambiguous details of the hypothesized impact.

Croft, S. K.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A study of the application of differential techniques to the global positioning system for a helicopter precision approach

The results of a simulation study to define the functional characteristics of a airborne and ground reference GPS receiver for use in a Differential GPS system are doumented. The operations of a variety of receiver types (sequential-single channel, continuous multi-channel, etc.) are evaluated for a typical civil helicopter mission scenario. The math model of each receiver type incorporated representative system errors including intentional degradation. The results include the discussion of the receiver relative performance, the spatial correlative properties of individual range error sources, and the navigation algorithm used to smooth the position data.

Mccall, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Availability of positioning and receiver autonomous integrity monitoring for the global positioning system

Receiver-autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) of GPS data is examined by means of a simulation of the availability of a RAIM system that can provide both a GPS coverage model and a Markov reliability model. State probabilities of GPS failure scenarios are assigned with the Markov model with a maximum of 6 simultaneous satellite failures. The parametric analysis of the failures on GPS RAIM availability includes the maximum allowable value of the horizontal dilution of precision (HDOP), the mean time to repair, and the efficacy of incorporating altimeter measurements. When the HDOP requirement is relaxed the number of RAIM outages is minimized, and poor satellite geometry can lead to a large HDOP. The use of an altimeter can also reduce outages, and RAIM availability increases with optimistic values for the mean time to repair.

Kline, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Abundance recovery error analysis using simulated AVIRIS data

Measurement noise and imperfect atmospheric correction translate directly into errors in the determination of the surficial abundance of materials from imaging spectrometer data. The effects of errors on abundance recovery were investigated previously using Monte Carlo simulation methods by Sabol et. al. The drawback of the Monte Carlo approach is that thousands of trials are needed to develop good statistics on the probable error in abundance recovery. This computational burden invariably limits the number of scenarios of interest that can practically be investigated. A more efficient approach is based on covariance analysis. The covariance analysis approach expresses errors in abundance as a function of noise in the spectral measurements and provides a closed form result eliminating the need for multiple trials. Monte Carlo simulation and covariance analysis are used to predict confidence limits for abundance recovery for a scenario which is modeled as being derived from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS).

Stoner, William W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Geology and Origin of Europa's Mitten Feature (Murias Chaos)

The "Mitten" (provisionally named Murias Chaos by the International Astronomical Union) is a region of elevated chaos-like terrain in the leading hemisphere of Europa. Its origin had been explained under the currently debated theories of melting through a thin lithosphere or convection within a thick one. Galileo observations reveal several characteristics that suggest that the Mitten is distinct from typical chaos terrain and point to a different formational process. Photoclinometric elevation estimates suggest that the Mitten is slightly elevated with respect to the surrounding terrain; geologic relations indicate that it must have raised significantly from the plains in its past, resembling disrupted domes on Europa's trailing hemisphere. Moreover, the Mitten material appears to have extruded onto the plains and flowed for tens of kilometers. The area subsequently subsided as a result of isostatic adjustment, viscous relaxation, and/or plains loading. Using plate flexure models, we estimated the elastic lithosphere in the area to be several kilometers thick. We propose that the Mitten originated by the ascent and extrusion of a large thermal diapir. Thermal-mechanical modeling shows that a Mitten-sized plume would remain sufficiently warm and buoyant to pierce through the crust and flow unconfined on the surface. Such a diapir probably had an initial radius between 5 and 8 km and an initial depth of 20-40 km, consistent with a thick-lithosphere model. In this scenario the Mitten appears to represent the surface expression of the rare ascent of a large diapir, in contrast to lenticulae and chaos terrain, which may form by isolated and clustered small diapirs, respectively.

Figueredo, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Information Extraction for System-Software Safety Analysis: Calendar Year 2007 Year-End Report

This annual report describes work to integrate a set of tools to support early model-based analysis of failures and hazards due to system-software interactions. The tools perform and assist analysts in the following tasks: 1) extract model parts from text for architecture and safety/hazard models; 2) combine the parts with library information to develop the models for visualization and analysis; 3) perform graph analysis on the models to identify possible paths from hazard sources to vulnerable entities and functions, in nominal and anomalous system-software configurations; 4) perform discrete-time-based simulation on the models to investigate scenarios where these paths may play a role in failures and mishaps; and 5) identify resulting candidate scenarios for software integration testing. This paper describes new challenges in a NASA abort system case, and enhancements made to develop the integrated tool set.

Malin, Jane T.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Logistics Modeling for Lunar Exploration Systems

The extensive logistics required to support extended crewed operations in space make effective modeling of logistics requirements and deployment critical to predicting the behavior of human lunar exploration systems. This paper discusses the software that has been developed as part of the Campaign Manifest Analysis Tool in support of strategic analysis activities under the Constellation Architecture Team - Lunar. The described logistics module enables definition of logistics requirements across multiple surface locations and allows for the transfer of logistics between those locations. A key feature of the module is the loading algorithm that is used to efficiently load logistics by type into carriers and then onto landers. Attention is given to the capabilities and limitations of this loading algorithm, particularly with regard to surface transfers. These capabilities are described within the context of the object-oriented software implementation, with details provided on the applicability of using this approach to model other human exploration scenarios. Some challenges of incorporating probabilistics into this type of logistics analysis model are discussed at a high level.

Andraschko, Mark R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Reconnection Onset in the Breakout Model for CME Initiation

Fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most massive explosions in the heliosphere, and the primary drivers of geoeffective space weather. Although it is generally agreed that magnetic reconnection is the key to fast CME initiation, different models incorporate reconnection in different ways. One promising model --- the breakout scenario --- involves reconnection in two distinct yet interconnected locations: breakout reconnection ahead of the CME, and flare reconnection behind it. We will discuss what we have learned about the early evolution of breakout and flare reconnection from recent high-resolution 2.5D adaptively refined MHD simulations of CME initiation, including the evolving properties of the breakout and flare current sheets, the conditions that trigger reconnection onset in each sheet, the ensuing positive feedback between breakout and flare reconnections, and implications for electron acceleration in flares.

Karpen, Judy T.↗