Results for “scenario reduction” — Page 11

NASA NTRS2019

Global and Regional Trends of Atmospheric Sulfur

The profound changes in global SO[subscript 2] emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and europe. europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and east Asia. the uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. the agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget.

Aas, Wenche↗

NASA NTRS1982

Estimating acreage by double sampling using LANDSAT data

Double sampling techniques employing LANDSAT data for estimating the acreage of corn and soybeans was investigated and evaluated. The evaluation was based on estimated costs and correlations between two existing procedures having differing cost/variance characteristics, and included consideration of their individual merits when coupled with a fictional 'perfect' procedure of zero bias and variance. Two features of the analysis are: (1) the simultaneous estimation of two or more crops; and (2) the imposition of linear cost constraints among two or more types of resource. A reasonably realistic operational scenario was postulated. The costs were estimated from current experience with the measurement procedures involved, and the correlations were estimated from a set of 39 LACIE-type sample segments located in the U.S. Corn Belt. For a fixed variance of the estimate, double sampling with the two existing LANDSAT measurement procedures can result in a 25% or 50% cost reduction. Double sampling which included the fictional perfect procedure results in a more cost effective combination when it is used with the lower cost/higher variance representative of the existing procedures.

Pont, F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Rotational relaxation of molecular H2 at moderate temperatures

A coupled rotation-vibration-dissociation model is used to compute the rotational relaxation times for molecular hydrogen as a function of final temperatures (500-5000 K) in a hypothetical scenario of sudden compression. The theoretical model is based on a master equation solver. The bound-bound and bound-free transition rates have been computed using a quasi-classical trajectory method. A review of the available experimental data on the rotational relaxation of hydrogen is presented, with a critical overview of the method of measurements and data reduction, including the sources of errors. The experimental data are compared with the computed results.

Sharma, S. P.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Rotational relaxation of molecular hydrogen at moderate temperatures

Using a coupled rotation-vibration-dissociation model the rotational relaxation times for molecular hydrogen as a function of final temperature (500-5000 K), in a hypothetical scenario of sudden compression, are computed. The theoretical model is based on a master equation solver. The bound-bound and bound-free transition rates have been computed using a quasiclassical trajectory method. A review of the available experimental data on the rotational relaxation of hydrogen is presented, with a critical overview of the method of measurements and data reduction, including the sources of errors. These experimental data are then compared with the computed results.

COUPLED ROTATION VIBRATION DIS↗

NASA NTRS2009

Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. The automated system periodically updates forecasts and reassesses rerouting decisions in order to account for changing weather predictions. The main objectives are to reroute flights to avoid convective weather regions and determine the resulting complexity due to rerouting. The eventual goal is to control and reduce complexity while rerouting flights during the 20 minute - 2 hour planning period. A three-hour simulation is conducted using 4800 flights in the national airspace. The study compares several metrics against a baseline scenario using the same traffic and weather but with rerouting disabled. The results show that rerouting can have a negative impact on congestion in some sectors, as expected. The rerouting system provides accurate measurements of the resulting complexity in the congested sectors. Furthermore, although rerouting is performed only in the 20-minute - 2-hour range, it results in a 30% reduction in encounters with nowcast weather polygons (100% being the ideal for perfectly predictable and accurate weather). In the simulations, rerouting was performed for the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon, and for the en-route segment of air traffic. The implementation uses CWAM, a set of polygons that represent probabilities of pilot deviation around weather. The algorithms were implemented in a software-based air traffic simulation system. Initial results of the system's performance and effectiveness were encouraging. Simulation results showed that when flights were rerouted in the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon of air traffic, there were fewer weather encounters in the first 20 minutes than for flights that were not rerouted. Some preliminary results were also obtained that showed that rerouting will also increase complexity. More simulations will be conducted in order to report conclusive results on the effects of rerouting on complexity. Thus, the use of the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon weather avoidance teniques performed in the simulation is expected to provide benefits for short-term weather avoidance.

Karahan, Sinan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Impact on Modal Response of Persistent Assets

Protecting the infrastructure and payload components of persistent assets (PAs) from damage caused by MicroMeteoroid and/or Orbital Debris (MMOD) impacts is a significant design consideration. The impact resistance to MMOD will need to be provided by the robustness of the structural configuration such that the asset does not suffer loss of function or catastrophic failure. Finite element modelling (FEM) can be used to investigate the effects of MMOD impact on the overall structural behavior of the PA. The models are being used here to investigate the structural response to ‘missing’ truss members, and parametric studies are being performed to identify the worst-case scenario of an impact catastrophically damaging a truss element. These models will be used to determine which truss members are the most critical to the structural performance, and thus, which may require a higher degree of protection or robustness to ensure they can withstand an MMOD impact without causing catastrophic effects on the entire structure. Initial results have been generated indicating a reduction in the global frequency due to missing truss members as a result of MMOD impact.

in-space assembly (ISA)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Plasma Activated Water Developments for Lunar and Martian Applications

Plasma activated water (PAW) could be of great use for space applications, due to the myriad of on-demand uses. The presence of any nitrogen in the gas stream, including in a simulated Martian atmospheric composition, allows for nitrates to form in water during plasma treatment. These nitrates form nitric acid and drive down the pH while also being in a readily useable form by plants. By varying the reactions and mixing in natural additives, pH values from 2.7 to 11.5 were achieved. The pH control allows for use with many different plant species. This methodology is also enabling for space-based hydroponic systems. Growth studies of Cherry Belle radishes showed comparable dry masses of edible biomass grown with Hoagland’s nutrient solution (a best-case scenario solution that is impractical for launch transportation) and the edible biomass grown with PAW. Both solutions showed substantial improvements over the deionized water that is most similar to what is available in Space systems via the water processor assembly. Additionally, the ability to produce both acidic PAW and basic PAW has benefits for sanitation as well. Preliminary studies showed a 5.8 log reduction of P. Aeruginosa when exposed to PAW mixtures, which shows the ability to remove this common biofilm.

Ryan Gott↗

NASA NTRS1993

Precision X-band Doppler and ranging navigation for current and future Mars exploration missions

This paper describes a navigation error covariance analysis of two scenarios derived from the Mars Observer mission and the planned Mars Environmental SURvey (MESUR) Pathfinder mission, respectively. The analysis was performed to establish the potential navigational performance of the X-band tracking system in NASA's Deep Space Network, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the predicted performance to variations in the quantity of data acquired, the ground system error modeling assumptions, and data reduction schemes. The simulated data arcs used in the analysis are representative of the actual data arcs that will be used to predict the aim point for the Mars orbit insertion maneuver, in the case of Mars Observer, and the interplanetary trajectory aim point corresponding to the target Mars landing site in the case of MESUR Pathfinder. The results indicate that with a suitable sequential data reduction scheme and accurate calibrations of instrumentation, transmission media, and platform model parameters, navigation accuracies of 5 to 15 km (1 sigma) can be achieved, equivalent to 15 to 40 nrad in geocentric angle uncertainty.

Estefan, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Precision X-Band Doppler and Ranging Navigation For Current and Future Mars Exploration Missions

This paper describes a navigation error convariance analysis of two scenarios derived from the Mars Observer mission and the planned Mars Environmental Survey (MESUR) Pathfinder mission, respectively. The analysis was performed to establish the potential navigational performance of the X-band tracking system in NASA's Deep Space Network, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the Predicted performance to variations in the quantity of data acquired, the ground system error modeling assumptions, and data reduction schemes.

Precision↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Source Contaminant Control System Design, Operation, and Testing for the Trash Compaction and Processing System

The Trash Compaction and Processing System (TCPS) aims to reduce volume, biologically safen, physically stabilize, manage effluents, and recover resources from astronaut trash in the International Space Station (ISS). This process involves heating the trash to high temperatures, which in turn releases gaseous contaminants. Effluent management scenarios involve releasing these gases back to the ISS cabin after processing and/or directly venting these gases out to space via the Vacuum Exhaust System (VES). Concerns for recovering the gases back to cabin are crew health, safety, and spacecraft environmental impact. The Heat Melt Compactor (HMC) at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) serves as a test system that supports TCPS development by conducting risk reduction activities associated with an ISS flight demonstration. Previous gas effluent studies were conducted on the HMC. The results consisted of contaminants from the trash exhaust to exceed Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMAC), which are selected airborne contaminants that can elicit toxicity symptoms to crewmembers via exposure. The Source Contaminant Control System (SCCS) aims to reduce that risk by converting the contaminants into carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O) vapor. The SCCS is composed of a carbon adsorbent bed, to avoid catalyst poisoning, and a catalytic oxidizer (CatOx), which promotes oxidation of the contaminants to CO2 and H2O. In turn, the gases coming out of the SCCS should be compatible to the ISS cabin and systems such as the Trace Contaminant Control System (TCCS). Preparation for SCCS testing alongside the HMC Gen 3 are currently underway at ARC. The main objectives are to evaluate CatOx efficiency by CO2 conversion and characterize effectiveness of removal by comparing contaminant results before and after CatOx. This paper will report on the SCCS design, operation, and testing with results.

Janine Young↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Source Contaminant Control System Design, Operation, and Testing for the Trash Compaction and Processing System

The Trash Compaction and Processing System (TCPS) aims to reduce volume, biologically safen, physically stabilize, manage effluents, and recover resources from astronaut trash in the International Space Station (ISS). This process involves heating the trash to high temperatures, which in turn releases gaseous contaminants. Effluent management scenarios involve releasing these gases back to the ISS cabin after processing and/or directly venting these gases out to space via the Vacuum Exhaust System (VES). Concerns for recovering the gases back to cabin are crew health, safety, and spacecraft environmental impact. The Heat Melt Compactor (HMC) at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) serves as a test system that supports TCPS development by conducting risk reduction activities associated with an ISS flight demonstration. Previous gas effluent studies were conducted on the HMC. The results consisted of contaminants from the trash exhaust to exceed Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMAC), which are selected airborne contaminants that can elicit toxicity symptoms to crewmembers via exposure. The Source Contaminant Control System (SCCS) aims to reduce that risk by converting the contaminants into carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O) vapor. The SCCS is composed of a carbon adsorbent bed, to avoid catalyst poisoning, and a catalytic oxidizer (CatOx), which promotes oxidation of the contaminants to CO2and H2O. In turn, the gases coming out of the SCCS should be compatible to the ISS cabin and systems such as the Trace Contaminant Control System (TCCS). Preparation for SCCS testing alongside the HMC Gen 3 are currently underway at ARC. The main objectives are to evaluate CatOx efficiency by CO2conversion and characterize effectiveness of removal by comparing contaminant results before and after CatOx. This paper will report on the SCCS design, operation, and testing with results.

TCPS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Sources of Sulfate Found in Mounds and Lakes at the Lewis Cliffs Ice Tongue, Transantarctic

Massive but highly localized Na-sulfate mounds (mirabilite, Na2SO4.10H2O) have been found at the terminal moraine of the Lewis Cliffs Ice Tongue (LCIT), Antarctica. (Sigma)34S and (Sigma)18O values of LCIT mirabilite range from +48.8 to +49.3% (CDT), and -16.6 to -17.1% (V-SMOW), respectively, while (Delta)17O average -0.37% (V-SMOW). LCIT mirabilite mounds are isotopically different from other mirabilite mounds found in coastal regions of Antarctica, which have isotope values close to seawater compositions. (Sigma)18O and (Delta)17O values suggest the incorporation of isotopically light glacial water. Data point to initial sulfate formation in an anoxic water body, either as a stratified anoxic deep lake on the surface, a sub-glacial water reservoir, or a sub-glacial lake. Several surface lakes of varying size are also present within this region of the LCIT, and in some cases are adjacent to the mirabilite mounds. O and D isotope compositions of surface lakes confirm they are derived from a mixture of glacial ice and snow that underwent moderate evaporation. (Sigma)18O and (Sigma)D (V-SMOW) values of snow, ice, and lake water range from -64.2 to -29.7%, and -456.0 to -231.7%, respectively. However, the isotope chemistry of these surface lakes is extremely different from the mounds. Dissolved SO4-2 (Sigma)34S and (Sigma)18O values range from +12.0 to +20.0% and -12.8 to -22.2% (the most negative (Sigma)18O of terrestrial sulfate ever reported), respectively, with sulfate (Delta)17O ranging from +0.93 to 2.24%. Ion chromatography data show that lake water is fresh to brackish in origin, with TDS less than 1500 ppm, and sulfate concentration less than 431 ppm. Isotope and chemical data suggest that these lakes are unlikely the source of the mirabilite mounds. We suggest that lake water sulfate is potentially composed of a mixture of atmospheric sulfate and minor components of sulfate of weathering origin, much like the sulfate in the polar plateau soils of the McMurdo Dry Valleys. A simple model explains mirabilite mound formation at the LCIT. Sulfur redox processes could occur sub-glacially as a result of liquid-water-based glacial conditions (Alpine style glacier), most likely formed by pressure melting of overlying ice (Aharon, GCA, 52, 2321-2331). We suggest that the aqueous base of the LCIT contains dissolved SO42- and is anoxic where sulfate reduction to H2S, HS-, or native sulfur takes place. Sulfide is removed by either precipitation as sulfide minerals or by escape of H2S (neither of which have been observed). Mirabilite precipitation is likely the result of evaporation or freezing of sulfate-rich brines as they reach the surface where they manifest themselves as mounds. Pressure from the overlying ice contributing to a pressure-melting scenario that creates the sub-glacial aqueous environment also contributes to the mechanism of upward transport of the sulfate-rich fluids. Further evidence to support this upward transport model comes from the nature of ice motion at the LCIT. Cassidy et al (Meteoritics, 27, 490-525, 1992) pointed out that it is the vertical ice motion in this area that creates the meteorite-stranding surface that could also account for upward transport of sulfate-rich fluids. Alternatively, mirabilite was deposited in a similar condition as present-day coastal Antarctica when the LCIT was wetter and warmer

Socki, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1998

Highly Reusable Space Transportation System Concept Evaluation (The Argus Launch Vehicle)

This paper summarizes the results of a conceptual design study that was performed in support of NASA's recent Highly Reusable Space Transportation study. The Argus concept uses a Maglifter magnetic-levitation sled launch assist system to accelerate it to a takeoff ground speed of 800 fps on its way to delivering a payload of 20,000 lb. to low earth orbit. Main propulsion is provided by two supercharged ejector rocket engines. The vehicle is autonomous and is fully reusable. A conceptual design exercise determined the vehicle gross weight to be approximately 597,250 lb. and the dry weight to be 75,500 lb. Aggressive weight and operations cost assumptions were used throughout the design process consistent with a second-generation reusable system that might be deployed in 10-15 years. Drawings, geometry, and weight of the concept are included. Preliminary development, production, and operations costs along with a business scenario assuming a price-elastic payload market are also included. A fleet of three Argus launch vehicles flying a total of 149 flights per year is shown to have a financial internal rate of return of 28%. At $169/lb., the recurring cost of Argus is shown to meet the study goal of $100/lb.-$200/lb., but optimum market price results in only a factor of two to five reduction compared to today's launch systems.

Olds, John R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Plasma Activated Water Developments for Lunar and Martian Applications

Plasma activated water (PAW) would be of great use for space applications, due to the myriad of on-demand uses. Some of these applications were directly explored at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center including: Space crop production, Martian systems, and acid-base production. The presence of any nitrogen in the gas stream, including in a simulated Martian atmospheric composition, allows for nitrates to form in water during plasma treatment. These nitrates form nitric acid and drive down the pH while also being in a readily useable form by plants. Inedible biomass ash, which can be created using the same plasma system that treats the water, can be added into the acidic PAW to raise the pH. Measured pH values ranged from 2.7 to 11.5 using this process. Both the nitrates and the nutrients from the inedible biomass are beneficial for the plants, and the pH control allows for use with many different plant species. This methodology is also enabling for space-based hydroponic systems. At KSC, growth studies of Cherry Belle radishes showed comparable dry masses of edible biomass grown with Hoagland’s nutrient solution (a best-case scenario solution that is impractical for launch transportation) and the edible biomass grown with plasma water with the added ash. Both solutions showed substantial improvements over the deionized water that is most similar to what is available in Space systems via the water processor assembly. Additionally, the ability to produce both acidic PAW and basic PAW has benefits for sanitation as well. Preliminary studies showed a 5.8 log reduction of P. Aeruginosa when exposed to PAW mixtures, which shows the ability to remove this common biofilm.

Ryan Patrick Gott↗

NASA NTRS2000

Maghemite Formation via Organics and the Prospect for Maghemite as a Biomarker Mineral on Mars

One of the major questions on Mars is the origin of the magnetic component in the surface material. Our work on maghemite formation suggests that alteration of femhydrite in the presence of organics would provide a plausible formation scenario for this magnetic soil component and further suggests that maghemite might be an important biomarker mineral on Mars. Identification of biomarker minerals is an important aspect of Astrobiology . The iron oxide mineral maghemite is thought to be one of the magnetic components in the Martian surface material; however, it is a rare mineral on the Earth and requires a reducing agent for synthesis. Organic material serves as a reductant in maghemite formation during forest fires on Earth and may play an important role in maghemite formation on Mars through low-temperature heating (e.g., volcanism, impacts). This study involves analysis of magnetite, maghemite and hematite formation under Martian environmental conditions from femhydrite in the presence and absence of organics. A dehydrated version of the mineral femhydrite is thought to be present in Martian soil/dust grains and could have formed at an earlier time on Mars when water was present. Our work indicates that low-temperature alteration of femhydrite in the presence of organic material could be an important mechanism on Mars.

Bishop, Janice↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗