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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid deep neural operator/finite element method for ice-sheet modeling

One of the most challenging and consequential problems in climate modeling is to provide probabilistic projections of sea level rise. A large part of the uncertainty of sea level projections is due to uncertainty in ice sheet dynamics. At the moment, accurate quantification of the uncertainty is hindered by the cost of ice sheet computational models. In this work we develop a hybrid approach to approximate existing ice sheet models at a fraction of their cost. Our approach consists of replacing the finite element model for the momentum equations for the ice velocity, the most expensive part of an ice sheet model, with a Deep Operator Network, while we retain a classic finite element discretization for the evolution of the ice thickness. We show that the resulting hybrid model is very accurate and it is an order of magnitude faster than the traditional finite element model. Further, a distinctive feature of the proposed model, compared to other neural network approaches, is that it can handle high-dimensional parameter spaces (parameter fields) such as the basal friction at the bed of the glacier and can therefore be used for generating samples for uncertainty quantification. Further, we study the impact of hyper-parameters, number of unknowns and correlation length of the parameter distribution on the training and accuracy of the Deep Operator Network on a synthetic ice sheet model. We then target the evolution of the Humboldt glacier in Greenland and show that our hybrid model can provide accurate statistics of the glacier mass loss and can be effectively used to accelerate the quantification of uncertainty.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2014

Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.

sea level↗
NASA NTRS2020

CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850‐2014) with GISS‐E2.1

Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850‐‐2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2), but warm less during recent decades due to reduced total forcing. This forcing reduction is attributed to an increase in longwave opacity in pre‐industrial simulations, resulting in an atmosphere less sensitive to further increases in opacity that result from rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This demonstrates the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin.

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Ea↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Formational History and Geomorphic Preservation of Sea Level Highstands Over the Last 150 ky Near Cape Canaveral, Florida, USA

Cape Canaveral, Florida, is perhaps one of the most important stretches of coastline in the United States of America (USA) due to its critical strategic role in the pursuit of space exploration and as the locus of advanced technological innovation. Due to its geographical setting, the entirety of Cape Canaveral, including its infrastructure, facilities, and important natural habitats (e.g., wetlands, estuaries and dunes) is vulnerable to coastal hazards such as continued sea level rise, storm surges, erosion and flooding. As such, accurate sea level characterization and coastal resiliency predictions are essential to promoting long-term coastal planning and sustainability in the area. This study aims to better understand the temporal and spatial evolution of this area with the purpose of more accurately documenting historical sea level fluctuations and calibrating more localized projections at this site. The Cape Canaveral coastline is situated on a passive margin mostly affected by oceanic (sea level change and wave impact) and atmospheric (aeolian) alteration. This sector is part of the east Florida coast microtidal (1.2 m) setting and low wave energy (1.2-1.6 m and 6.1-8.2 sec for average significant waves) regime and is defined by a well delineated set of beach ridge or cape systems. While the name “Cape Canaveral” is often used as a generic term to describe the geographic area, it is actually an amalgamation or complex of multiple preserved capes. The preserved Cape Canaveral beach ridge plain has largely documented the paleo-sea level highstand history over the last 150 ky. High-resolution mapping of these beach ridges is completed using GPS, LiDAR, aerial, as well as satellite imagery. In order to reconstruct the formational history of the Cape Kennedy Complex and the preserved record of sea level highstands, these detailed geomorphological observations are integrated with OSL and C14 dating techniques. The chronological framework delineated by the OSL dates coupled with detailed geomorphological mapping allows for the creation of high-resolution calibrated site-specific sea level curves that reflect the local environmental and geological conditions. This refinement has the potential to improve the understanding of past sea level variability which is crucial for predicting future trends and assessing the impacts on coastal regions such as Cape Canaveral.

geomorphology↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Nature of Quaternary Climate Change

Dynamic interactions between atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere, driven by solar energy and modulated by atmospheric greenhouse gasses, volcanism, and plate tectonics produce substantial variations in Earth's climate over geologic time. Major Quaternary drivers of climate change include variations in Earth's orbital cycles, global temperature, natural atmospheric greenhouse gasses, and continental ice mass. Multiple abrupt climate perturbations with onsets of a century to decades have also occurred. Since the 1970s, geologically unprecedented rising levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gasses from fossil fuel combustion, industry, and agriculture have become the dominant contributors to rising global temperature, glacier and ice sheet losses, and sea level rise.

Solar variability↗
NASA NTRS2006

Recent Changes in High-Latitude Glaciers, Ice Caps, and Ice Sheets

The glaciers and ice sheets of the world contain enough ice to raise sea level by approximately 70 meters if they were to disappear entirely, and most of this ice is located in the climatically sensitive polar regions. Fortunately changes of this magnitude would probably take many thousands of years to occur, but recent discoveries indicate that these ice masses are responding to changes in today s climate more rapidly than previously thought. These responses are likely to be of great societal significance, primarily in terms of their implications for sea level, but also in terms of how their discharge of freshwater, through melting or calving, may impact ocean circulation. For millions of years, oceans have risen and fallen as the Earth has warmed and cooled, and ice on land has shrunk and grown. Today is no different in that respect, as sea levels have been rising at a rate of nearly 2 m per year during the last century (Miller and Douglas 2004), and 3 mm/yr in the last 12 years (Leuliette et al. 2004). What is different today, however, is that tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions of people live in coastal areas that are vulnerable to changes in sea level. Rising seas erode beaches, increase flood potential, and reduce the ability of barrier islands and coastal wetlands to mitigate the effects of major storms and hurricanes. The costs associated with a one-meter rise in sea level are estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars in the United States alone. The worldwide costs in human terms would be far greater as some vulnerable low-lying coastal regions would become inundated, especially in poorer nations that do not have the resources to deal with such changes. Such considerations are particularly important in light of the fact that a one meter sea level rise is not significantly outside the 0.09 to 0.88 range of predictions for this century (IPCC 2001), and rises of this magnitude have occurred in the past in as little as 20 years (Fairbanks 1989). While the expansion of the warming oceans is estimated to be about a third of recent sea level rise, (Miller and Douglas 2004) the greatest potential for significantly increasing sea level lies in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. For different reasons, each exhibits characteristics that suggest they are potentially unstable. In Antarctica, large portions of the ice cover rest on a soft bed that lies below sea level, making it vulnerable to runaway retreat. The Greenland ice sheet experiences considerable melt, which has the potential to rapidly accelerate the flow of ice toward the sea. While smaller ice masses, such as the Alaskan Glaciers and the Canadian ice caps, do not have anywhere near the same potential to impact sea level as the vast ice sheets do, many are melting rapidly, posing a significant near-term threat.

Abdalati, Waleed↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decadal and seasonal changes in barrier island geomorphology at Padre Island from 1950-2020

Barrier islands serve an important role in shielding coastal areas from storm surges and wave erosion. Monitoring changes in a barrier island system helps determine the effect of storms and sea level rise (SLR) on island stability. Changes in geomorphic facies on the islands may be indicators of an island shifting out of an equilibrium state. Here, we used aerial and satellite images of Padre Island, Texas near Mansfield Pass, to map the decadal and seasonal geomorphological changes from 1970-2020. Inspection of the images reveals that this area experienced significant change over the past five decades, transitioning from unvegetated dune fields and sand flats to expansive vegetated dunes and a tidal flat with microbial mats. Vegetated dunes, absent in 1970, now cover 14% of the study area. The active dune field shrunk from 12% coverage to 6%. The infrequently flooded back-island sand flat covering 40% of the study area has transitioned to a lower-lying tidal flat. Extensive microbial mats and crusts have developed within the wind-tidal flat, in washover fans, and in low-lying interdune areas. Possible triggers for the transition from active sand dune fields to microbial mats and vegetation may be modifications to the island topography post-hurricane Allen in 1980 and a sea-level driven water table rise. The local sea level has risen 16 cm over the study period. Monthly mapping over a full year demonstrated the strong influence the seasonal water cycle has on the back-island facies. Aeolian transport plays a primary role in the back-island geomorphology, however the availability of sand for transport is highly variable from month to month as the surface fluctuates in and out of the capillary fringe. The increasing prevalence of water table-driven facies changes leads to the conclusion that back-barrier accretion is not keeping pace with relative SLR. These facies changes may be the first signs of a degrading microtidal barrier island.

K.R. Fisher↗
NASA NTRS2016

Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and Its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

Reservoir impoundment↗
NASA NTRS2020

Damage Accelerates Ice Shelf Instability and Mass Loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment

Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections.

glaciology↗
NASA NTRS2016

Impacts of Groundwater Pumping on Regional and Global Water Resources

Except frozen water in ice and glaciers (68%), groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater (30%), and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this chapter, the most recent advances assessing human impact on regional and global groundwater resources are reviewed. This chapter critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches quantifying the effect of groundwater pumping in regional and global groundwater resources and the evidence of feedback to the Earth system including sea‐level rise associated with groundwater use. At last, critical challenges and opportunities are identified in the use of groundwater to adapt to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

groundwater↗
NASA NTRS1987

Global sea-level changes during the past century

A novel technique, initially developed for climate studies, is used to reevaluate the estimate of relative sea-level change over the past century. The technique produces a composite regional average sea-level curve from the tide-gage data of individual stations. The effects of glacioisostasy and long-term tectonism are accounted for using late Holocene sea-level indicators. Along the east coast of North America, an apparent maximum sea-level rise is detected in both tide-gage and late Holocene sea-level indicators between Chesapeake Bay and New Jersey. Sea-level changes in western North America reveal greater spatial variations than for the east coast, which can be related to more active tectonism in California and British Columbia and to strong localized isostatic rebound in Alaska.

Gornitz, Vivien↗
NASA NTRS2022

Maldives Climate: Monitoring Shoreline Changes and Island Loss in Response to Climate Change

Global sea level rise as a result of climate change continues to pose a critical threat to coastal ecosystems and populations. The archipelagic country of the Maldives is of critical concern due to being one of the lowest lying areas in the world. The development of reclaimed land in the Maldives by sand dredging has been a frequent response to both increasing sea levels and population increase. Such disturbance can lead to increased sedimentation off the coast and negatively impact coastal environments. Remote sensing tools such as satellite imagery have proved to be an effective tool in observing coastal changes in response to climate change and development. NASA DEVELOP created a methodology to analyze both water quality and shoreline erosion in the Maldives utilizing satellite imagery. Methods relied on open-source software such as QGIS and Google Earth Engine (GEE) and Satellite Imagery from PlanetScope, Landsat 8 Operational Land Instrument (OLI), Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument (MSI), and Aqua & Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Radiospectrometer (MODIS) to analyze the changes in shorelines and assess water quality of select atolls within the Maldives. Findings show less shoreline change in developed parts of the island and more shoreline change in natural parts of the island. Additionally, water quality varies throughout the year and our data did not indicate seasonal trends. The methodology will be replicated to continue to monitor island erosion and water quality with the Maldives and will be applicable to other island and coastal systems.

remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2025

ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheet contribution to sea level over the 21st century, quantifying uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate model, emission scenario, and uncertain parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model and new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively sample uncertainties in future climate, ice shelf sensitivity to ocean melting, and their interactions. These results contributed to the land ice projections of Edwards et al. (2021), which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). Our experiments show the important interplay between surface mass balance processes and ocean-driven melt in determining Antarctic sea level contribution. Under higher-warming scenarios, high accumulation offsets more ocean-driven mass loss when sensitivity to ocean-driven melt is low. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Overall, we simulate a sea level contribution range across our experiments from 2 to 178 mm. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm relative to the no-collapse experiments, for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Scenario Setup and Forcing Data for Impact Model Evaluation and Impact Attribution Within the Third Round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

Inter Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Projec↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Fresh Take: Seasonal Changes in Terrestrial Freshwater Inputs Impact Salt Marsh Hydrology and Vegetation Dynamics

Abstract Salt marshes exist at the terrestrial-marine interface, providing important ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration. Tidal inputs play a dominant role in salt marsh porewater mixing, and terrestrially derived freshwater inputs are increasingly recognized as important sources of water and solutes to intertidal wetlands. However, there remains a critical gap in understanding the role of freshwater inputs on salt marsh hydrology, and how this may impact marsh subsurface salinity and plant productivity. Here, we address this knowledge gap by examining the hydrologic behavior, porewater salinity, and pickleweed ( Sarcocornia pacifica also known as Salicornia pacifica) plant productivity along a salt marsh transect in an estuary along the central coast of California. Through the installation of a suite of hydrometric sensors and routine porewater sampling and vegetation surveys, we sought to understand how seasonal changes in terrestrial freshwater inputs impact salt marsh ecohydrologic processes. We found that salt marsh porewater salinity, shallow subsurface saturation, and pickleweed productivity are closely coupled with elevated upland water level during the winter and spring, and more influenced by tidal inputs during the summer and fall. This seasonal response indicates a switch in salt marsh hydrologic connectivity with the terrestrial upland that impacts ecosystem functioning. Through elucidating the interannual impacts of drought on salt marsh hydrology, we found that the severity of drought and historical precipitation can impact contemporary hydrologic behavior and the duration and timing of the upland-marsh hydrologic connectivity. This implies that the sensitivity of salt marshes to climate change involves a complex interaction between sea level rise and freshwater inputs that vary at seasonal to interannual timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Satellite, Thermochron and Air Temperatures at Summit, Greenland, During the Winter of 2008/09

Current trends show rise in Arctic surface and air temperatures, including over the Greenland ice sheet where rising temperatures will contribute to increased sea-level rise through increased melt. We aim to establish the uncertainties in using satellite-derived surface temperature for measuring Arctic surface temperature, as satellite data are increasingly being used to assess temperature trends. To accomplish this, satellite-derived surface temperature, or land-surface temperature (LST), must be validated and limitations of the satellite data must he assessed quantitatively. During the 2008/09 boreal winter at Summit, Greenland, we employed data from standard US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) air-temperature instruments, button-sized temperature sensors called thermochrons and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument to (1) assess the accuracy and utility of thermochrons in an ice-sheet environment and (2) compare MODIS-derived LSTs with thermochron-derived surface and air temperatures. The thermochron-derived air temperatures were very accurate, within 0.1+/-0.3 C of the NOAA-derived air temperature, but thermochron-derived surface temperatures were approx. 3 C higher than MODIS-derived LSTs. Though the surface temperature is largely determined by air temperature, these variables can differ significantly. Furthermore, we show that the winter-time mean air temperature, adjusted to surface temperature was approx. 11 C higher than the winter-time mean MODIS-derived LST. This marked difference occurs largely because of satellite-derived LSTs cannot be measured through cloud cover, so caution must be exercised in using time series of satellite LST data to study seasonal temperature trends.

Koenig, Lora S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Building Climate Resilience at NASA Ames

NASA Ames Research Center, located at the southern end of the San Francisco Bay (SFB) estuary has identified three primary vulnerabilities to changes in climate. The Ames Climate Adaptation Science Investigator (CASI) workgroup has studied each of these challenges to operations and the potential exposure of infrastructure and employees to an increased frequency of hazards. Sea level rise inundation scenarios for the SFB Area generally refer to projected scenarios in mean sea level rather than changes in extreme tides that could occur during future storm conditions. In the Summer of 2014, high resolution 3-D mapping of the low lying portion of Ames was performed. Those data are integrated with improved sea level inundation scenarios to identify the buildings, basements and drainage systems potentially affected. We will also identify the impacts of sea level and storm surge effects on transportation to and from the Center. This information will help Center Management develop future Master Plans. Climate change will also lead to changes in temperature, storm frequency and intensity. These changes have potential impacts on localized floods and ecosystems, as well as on electricity and water availability. Over the coming decades, these changes are going to be imposed on top of ongoing land use and land cover changes, especially those deriving from continued urbanization and increase in impervious surface areas. These coupled changes have the potential to create a series of cascading impacts on ecosystems, including changes in primary productivity and disturbance of hydrological properties and increased flood risk.The majority of the electricity used at Ames is supplied by hydroelectric dams, which will be influenced by reductions in precipitation or changes in the timing or phase of precipitation which reduces snow pack. Coupled with increased demand for summertime air conditioning and other cooling needs, NASA Ames is at risk for electricity shortfalls. To assess the anticipated energy usage as climate changes, the Ames CASI team is collecting historical energy usage data from Ames facilities, historical weather data, and projected future weather parameters from the CASI Climate subgroup. This data will be incorporated into the RETScreen model to predict how energy usage at Ames will change over the coming century.

climate↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interacting Effects of Watershed and Coastal Processes on the Evolution of Compound Flooding During Hurricane Irene

Abstract In low‐lying estuarine regions, compound flooding (CF) is caused by the co‐occurrence of extreme precipitation, river flooding and storm surge. In recent decades, there has been a rise in the frequency and intensity of pluvial‐coastal CF events in different parts of the U.S. due to the increased frequency of intense precipitation and storm surge events. However, in estuarine and deltaic regions, the CF characteristics depend mainly on the storm tide and river flow interaction. Understanding how the fluvial‐coastal CF may respond to changes to watershed and estuarine characteristics is essential for future CF hazard prediction. This study examined two critical processes: (a) the interplay between antecedent soil moisture conditions and peak river flow, and (b) how the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and river flood distribution alters the CF in complex estuaries. As the study area, we selected the Delaware Bay and River, a shallow and convergent estuary in the US Mid‐Atlantic region—where flood hazards during a CF can become more significant than the surge and river flood processes occurring in isolation. For the focal event for the study, we selected Hurricane Irene (2011) because it reportedly produced the most extreme CF over the past two decades in the same region. Ultimately, our results illustrated that the potential changes to the catchment and bay characteristics from the global temperature increase and SLR could significantly modulate the fluvial‐coastal CF variability. The potential increase in global temperature and rainfall intensity might not always exacerbate the CF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗