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At least 199 records · Page 11

GEOS S2S Version 3: The New NASA/GMAO High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

The NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) released Version 2 of the Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecast system in the fall of 2017, and it has been producing near-real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts and a weakly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation record since then. A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system (Version 3) was released by the GMAO at the end of 2019. The new version runs at higher oceanic resolution than the previous (approximately 1/2 degree for the atmosphere, 1/4 degree for the ocean), and includes interactive earth system model components not typically present in seasonal prediction systems (two moment cloud microphysics for aerosol indirect effect and an interactive aerosol model). The weakly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation system now includes assimilation of sea surface salinity, that has been shown to result in improved ocean mixed layer simulation and ENSO prediction skill.

Molod, Andrea↗

Seawater Dielectric Constant At L-Band: How Consistent Are New Parametrisations Inferred from Smos and Laboratory Measurements?

The accuracy of the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) retrieved from L-Band radiometer measurements is strongly dependent on the accuracy of the modelling of the dielectric constant (ε). Two new ε parametrizations have recently been developed based on one hand on the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite multi-angular brightness temperature measurements and on the other hand on new laboratory measurements. These two approaches are fully independent. These new ε parametrizations are compared with each other and with the ε models previously in use in the SMOS, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Aquarius SSS retrievals. The two new ε parametrizations are found to be in closer agreement than with earlier parametrizations for most common ocean conditions. We will further study to which extent the recent SMOS CCI+SSS v3 reprocessing confirms the above results and could help resolve remaining inconsistencies.

SMOS↗

Earth System Model Parameter Adjustment Using a Green's Functions Approach

We demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of using a Green's functions estimation approach for adjusting uncertain parameters in an Earth system model (ESM). This estimation approach has previously been applied to an intermediate-complexity climate model and to individual ESM components, e.g., ocean, sea ice, or carbon cycle components. Here, the Green's functions approach is applied to a state-of-the-art ESM that comprises a global atmosphere/land configuration of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) coupled to an ocean and sea ice configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). Horizontal grid spacing is approximately 110 km for GEOS and 37–110 km for MITgcm. In addition to the reference GEOS-MITgcm simulation, we carried out a series of model sensitivity experiments, in which 20 uncertain parameters are perturbed. These “control” parameters can be used to adjust sea ice, microphysics, turbulence, radiation, and surface schemes in the coupled simulation. We defined eight observational targets: sea ice fraction, net surface shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation, near-surface temperature, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and ocean temperature and salinity at 300 m. We applied the Green's functions approach to optimize the values of the 20 control parameters so as to minimize a weighted least-squares distance between the model and the eight observational targets. The new experiment with the optimized parameters resulted in a total cost reduction of 9 % relative to a simulation that had already been adjusted using other methods. The optimized experiment attained a balanced cost reduction over most of the observational targets. We also report on results from a set of sensitivity experiments that are not used in the final optimized simulation but helped explore options and guided the optimization process. These experiments include an assessment of sensitivity to the number of control parameters and to the selection of observational targets and weights in the cost function. Based on these sensitivity experiments, we selected a specific definition for the cost function. The sensitivity experiments also revealed a decreasing overall cost as the number of control variables was increased. In summary, we recommend using the Green's functions estimation approach as an additional fine-tuning step in the model development process. The method is not a replacement for modelers' experience in choosing and adjusting sensitive model parameters. Instead, it is an additional practical and effective tool for carrying out final adjustments of uncertain ESM parameters.

Green's Function↗

The Global L-Band Observatory for Water Cycle Studies (Glows)– SMAP continuity Mission

SMOS and SMAP radiometers have demonstrated the ability to monitor soil moisture and sea surface salinity and continue to provide high quality radiometric measurements to this day in extended mission operations. It is important to maintain data continuity for these science measurements. The proposed instrument concept (Global L-band active/passive Observatory for Water cycle Studies - GLOWS) will enable low-cost L-band data continuity (that includes both L-band radar and radiometer measurements). The objective of this project is to develop key instrument technology to enable L-band observations using an Earth Venture class satellite. Specifically, a new deployable reflectarray lens antenna is being developed that will enable a smaller EELV Secondary Payload Adapter (ESPA) Grande-class satellite mission to continue the L-band observations at SMAP and SMOS resolution and accuracy at substantially lower cost, size, and weight

SMAP↗

Microwave Remote Sensing Modeling of Ocean Surface Salinity and Winds Using an Empirical Sea Surface Spectrum

Active and passive microwave remote sensing techniques have been investigated for the remote sensing of ocean surface wind and salinity. We revised an ocean surface spectrum using the CMOD-5 geophysical model function (GMF) for the European Remote Sensing (ERS) C-band scatterometer and the Ku-band GMF for the NASA SeaWinds scatterometer. The predictions of microwave brightness temperatures from this model agree well with satellite, aircraft and tower-based microwave radiometer data. This suggests that the impact of surface roughness on microwave brightness temperatures and radar scattering coefficients of sea surfaces can be consistently characterized by a roughness spectrum, providing physical basis for using combined active and passive remote sensing techniques for ocean surface wind and salinity remote sensing.

Sea surface spectrum↗

Characterizing the California Current System through Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity

Characterizing temperature and salinity (T-S) conditions is a standard framework in oceanography to identify and describe deep water masses and their dynamics. At the surface, this practice is hindered by multiple air–sea–land processes impacting T-S properties at shorter time scales than can easily be monitored. Now, however, the unsurpassed spatial and temporal coverage and resolution achieved with satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) allow us to use these variables to investigate the variability of surface processes at climate-relevant scales. In this work, we use SSS and SST data, aggregated into domains using a cluster algorithm over a T-S diagram, to describe the surface characteristics of the California Current System (CCS), validating them with in situ data from uncrewed Saildrone vessels. Despite biases and uncertainties in SSS and SST values in highly dynamic coastal areas, this T-S framework has proven useful in describing CCS regional surface properties and their variability in the past and in real time, at novel scales. This analysis also shows the capacity of remote sensing data for investigating variability in land–air–sea interactions not previously possible due to limited in situ data.

Marisol García-Reyes↗

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗

Assimilation of Satellite Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity Using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Applied to the NASA GEOS Earth System Model

The NASA GEOS-S2S-2 system (Molod et al., 2020) uses the SST relaxation with the Level-4 SST products while the latest GEOS GEOS-S2S-3 system directly assimilates the Level-4 SST in the data assimilation step, yet no study has been conducted to understand the impact of this switch on the GEOS coupled analysis and short-range forecast. In addition, the GEOS-S2S-2/3 systems use the ocean model MOM5. Recently, the ocean model MOM6 is added to the GEOS ESM. This poster presents results of the first coupling of the ensemble data assimilation system to the GEOS MOM6.

Cheng Da↗

Freshening of the Labrador Sea Surface Waters in the 1990s: Another Great Salinity Anomaly

Both the observed and simulated time series of the Labrador Sea surface salinities show a major freshening event since the middles. It continues the series of decoder events of the 1970s and 1980s from which the freshening in the early 1970's was named as the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA). These events are especially distinguishable in the late summer (August and September) time series. The observed data suggests that the 1990's freshening may equal the GSA in magnitude. This recent event is associated with a large reduction in the overturning rate between the early and latter part of the 1990s. Both the observations and model results indicate that the surface salinity conditions appear to be returning towards normal daring 1999 and 2000 in the coastal area, but offshore, the model predicts the freshening to linger on after peaking 1997.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

Assessing the Potential to Derive Air-Sea Freshwater Fluxes from Aquarius-Like Observations of Surface Salinity

A state-of-the-art numerical model is used to investigate the possibility of determining freshwater flux fields from temporal changes io sea-surface salinity (SSS), a goal of the satellite salinity-measuring mission, Aquarius/SAC-D. Because the estimated advective temporal scale is usually longer than the Aquarius/SAC-D revisit time, the possibility of producing freshwater flux estimates from temporal salinity changes is first examined by using a correlation analysis. For the mean seasonal cycle, the patterns of the correlations between the freshwater fluxes and surface salinity temporal tendencies are mainly zonally oriented, and are highest where the local precipitation is also relatively high. Nonseasonal (deviations from the monthly mean) correlations are highest along mid-latitude moon tracks and are relatively small in the tropics. The complex correlation patterns presented here suggest that a global retrieval of the difference between evaporation and precipitation (E-P) from salinity changes requires more complex techniques than a simple consideration of local balance with surface forcing.

Zhen, Li↗

Aquarius/SAC-D Mission Overview

Aquarius/SAC-D is a cooperative international mission developed between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of United States of America (USA) and the Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE) of Argentina. The overall mission objective is to contribute to the understanding of the total Earth system and the consequences of the natural and man-made changes in the environment of the planet. Major themes are: ocean surface salinity, water cycle, climate, natural hazards and cryosphere.

Aquarius↗

Probabilistic Machine Learning Estimation of Ocean Mixed Layer Depth from Dense Satellite and Sparse In-Situ Observations

The ocean mixed layer plays an important role in the coupling between the upper ocean and atmosphere across a wide range of time scales. Estimation of the variability of the ocean mixed layer is therefore important for atmosphere-ocean prediction and analysis. The increasing coverage of in situ Argo profile data allows for an increasingly accurate analysis of the mixed layer depth (MLD) variability associated with deviations from the seasonal climatology. However, sampling rates are not sufficient to fully resolve subseasonal (<90 day) MLD variability. Yet, many multivariate observations-based analyses include implicit modeled subseasonal MLD variability. One analysis method is optimal interpolation of in situ data, but the interior analysis can be improved by leveraging surface data with regression or variational approaches. Here, we demonstrate how machine learning methods and satellite sea surface temperature, salinity, and height facilitate MLD estimation in a pilot study of two regions: the mid-latitude southern Indian and the eastern equatorial Pacific Oceans. We construct multiple machine learning architectures to produce weekly 1/2° gridded MLD anomaly fields (relative to a monthly climatology) with uncertainty estimates. We test multiple traditional and probabilistic machine learning techniques to compare both accuracy and probabilistic calibration. We validate our methodology by applying it to ocean model simulations. We find that incorporating sea surface data through a machine learning model improves the performance of spatiotemporal MLD variability estimation compared to optimal interpolation of Argo observations alone. These preliminary results are a promising first step for the application of machine learning to MLD prediction.

Machine Learning↗

The Dielectric Constant at P-Band for Salinity from 0 to 150 pss

Measurements have been made at P-band (0.707 GHz) to construct a model for the dielectric constant of sea water and extend the model for the dielectric constant to high salinity (50-150 pss). The measurements are part of research to develop a model for the dielectric constant suitable for future wide-bandwidth remote sensing of salinity and for application to water bodies such as the Great Salt Lake with salinity significantly above that found in the open ocean. Measurements have been made at temperatures from 2 to 30 °C and salinity from 0 to 138 pss. The data have been fit to a Debye model for the dielectric constant with a single resonance as has been employed at L-band (1.413 GHz) where remote sensing of salinity is currently done. Comparison with contemporary models developed from data at L-band indicates that the L-band model and new P-band model do well at both frequencies for salinity less than 50 pss but at higher values of salinity the L-band models diverge from the data. The data has also been used to test at high salinity the mathematical relationship between salinity and conductivity which is the basis for the practical salinity scale (pss).

Dielectric Constant↗