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Visualization of Global Sensitivity Analysis Results Based on a Combination of Linearly Dependent and Independent Directions

A useful technique for the validation and verification of complex flight systems is Monte Carlo Filtering -- a global sensitivity analysis that tries to find the inputs and ranges that are most likely to lead to a subset of the outputs. A thorough exploration of the parameter space for complex integrated systems may require thousands of experiments and hundreds of controlled and measured variables. Tools for analyzing this space often have limitations caused by the numerical problems associated with high dimensionality and caused by the assumption of independence of all of the dimensions. To combat both of these limitations, we propose a technique that uses a combination of the original variables with the derived variables obtained during a principal component analysis.

Davies, Misty D.

Sensitivity Analysis of ProSEDS (Propulsive Small Expendable Deployer System) Data Communication System

This paper discusses analytical approaches to evaluating performance of Spacecraft On-Board Computing systems, thereby ultimately achieving a reliable spacecraft data communications systems. The sensitivity analysis approach of memory system on the ProSEDS (Propulsive Small Expendable Deployer System) as a part of its data communication system will be investigated. Also, general issues and possible approaches to reliable Spacecraft On-Board Interconnection Network and Processor Array will be shown. The performance issues of a spacecraft on-board computing systems such as sensitivity, throughput, delay and reliability will be introduced and discussed.

Park, Nohpill

Reliability Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization of Composite Structures Based on Response Surface Methodology

This report discusses the development and application of two alternative strategies in the form of global and sequential local response surface (RS) techniques for the solution of reliability-based optimization (RBO) problems. The problem of a thin-walled composite circular cylinder under axial buckling instability is used as a demonstrative example. In this case, the global technique uses a single second-order RS model to estimate the axial buckling load over the entire feasible design space (FDS) whereas the local technique uses multiple first-order RS models with each applied to a small subregion of FDS. Alternative methods for the calculation of unknown coefficients in each RS model are explored prior to the solution of the optimization problem. The example RBO problem is formulated as a function of 23 uncorrelated random variables that include material properties, thickness and orientation angle of each ply, cylinder diameter and length, as well as the applied load. The mean values of the 8 ply thicknesses are treated as independent design variables. While the coefficients of variation of all random variables are held fixed, the standard deviations of ply thicknesses can vary during the optimization process as a result of changes in the design variables. The structural reliability analysis is based on the first-order reliability method with reliability index treated as the design constraint. In addition to the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of reliability index, the results of the RBO problem are presented for different combinations of cylinder length and diameter and laminate ply patterns. The two strategies are found to produce similar results in terms of accuracy with the sequential local RS technique having a considerably better computational efficiency.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud

Direct sensitivity analysis on the parameterization of crystal plasticity models

Various methods for calibrating crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) models lead to non-unique input parameter values, which subsequently introduce uncertainty in the predicted mechanical response. Sensitivity analysis (SA) conducted on crystal plasticity models is used to identify how variability in these parameters contribute to output uncertainty. Traditional SA on CPFE parameters uses simplified surrogate models to save computational time. However, the accuracy of the surrogate models depends on the quantity of training data used, and any modeling error can propagate into the SA results, potentially affecting their reliability. In this work, the elementary effects test (EET) method, a global SA technique using direct CPFE simulations was employed, and the results obtained were compared with the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. ExaConstit, an open-source GPU-enabled CPFE code, was used to perform the simulations and direct SA. The EET method was accurately able to capture the non-linear effects of all the input parameters on the output and is a valuable approach for reliably attributing parameter sensitivities in CPFE models. Based on the results, efficient strategies to perform future parameter calibration and SA are discussed. Additionally, the SA trends observed in different single crystal orientations closely mirrored the activity of the slip systems.

Elementary Effects Test

Sensitivity Analysis Method to Address User Disparities in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Decision makers often face complex problems, which can seldom be addressed well without the use of structured analytical models. Mathematical models have been developed to streamline and facilitate decision making activities, and among these, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) constitutes one of the most utilized multi-criteria decision analysis methods. While AHP has been thoroughly researched and applied, the method still shows limitations in terms of addressing user profile disparities. A novel sensitivity analysis method based on local partial derivatives is presented here to address these limitations. This new methodology informs AHP users of which pairwise comparisons most impact the derived weights and the ranking of alternatives. The method can also be applied to decision processes that require the aggregation of results obtained by several users, as it highlights which individuals most critically impact the aggregated group results while also enabling to focus on inputs that drive the final ordering of alternatives. An aerospace design and engineering example that requires group decision making is presented to demonstrate and validate the proposed methodology.

Marie Ivanco

Techniques for thermal sensitivity analysis

Techniques for computing the sensitivity of temperatures to changes in design variables needed for designing thermal protection systems are considered. It is shown that the choice of the most efficient technique depends on the ratio of number of temperature constraints to the number of design variables, as well as on the thermal analysis method employed. The analysis is specialized to the case of a structure modeled by finite elements, and an example of an insulation panel is used to demonstrate the techniques.

Haftka, R. T.

Optimal control concepts in design sensitivity analysis

A close link is established between open loop optimal control theory and optimal design by noting certain similarities in the gradient calculations. The resulting benefits include a unified approach, together with physical insights in design sensitivity analysis, and an efficient approach for simultaneous optimal control and design. Both matrix displacement and matrix force methods are considered, and results are presented for dynamic systems, structures, and elasticity problems.

Belegundu, Ashok D.

Recovery of atmospheric water vapor total column abundance from imaging spectrometer data around 940 nm - Sensitivity analysis and application to Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data

Two simple techniques (Continuum Interpolated Band Ratio, CIBR, and Narrow/Wide ratio, N/W) to retrieve path precipitable water from AVIRIS high spectral resolution radiance data using the 940 nm water absorption band are compared. A sensitivity analysis was performed using the radiative transfer code LOWTRAN 7 to determine which one of these two approaches will provide a better estimate over land and water areas. The CIBR proved to be the technique less sensitive to perturbing effects, except for errors in visibility estimate. Both techniques were applied to AVIRIS radiance data acquired over Salton Sea, California. Resulting images confirmed that the use of a constant gray reflectance in the model led to a higher overestimation of the amount of water retrieved for N/W over vegetated areas. Validation was performed through comparison between an independent estimate of water vapor from concurrent Reagan sunphotometer measurements and AVIRIS estimates. Amounts retrieved using the N/W approach match more closely in situ measurements, even after adjusting model parameters for background reflectance, viewing geometry, and type of aerosol at the site.

Carrere, Veronique

Geometrically nonlinear design sensitivity analysis on parallel-vector high-performance computers

Parallel-vector solution strategies for generation and assembly of element matrices, solution of the resulted system of linear equations, calculations of the unbalanced loads, displacements, stresses, and design sensitivity analysis (DSA) are all incorporated into the Newton Raphson (NR) procedure for nonlinear finite element analysis and DSA. Numerical results are included to show the performance of the proposed method for structural analysis and DSA in a parallel-vector computer environment.

Baddourah, Majdi A.

Automated Sensitivity Analysis of Interplanetary Trajectories

This work describes a suite of Python tools known as the Python EMTG Automated Trade Study Application (PEATSA). PEATSA was written to automate the operation of trajectory optimization software, simplify the process of performing sensitivity analysis, and was ultimately found to out-perform a human trajectory designer in unexpected ways. These benefits will be discussed and demonstrated on sample mission designs.

trajectory design

Methodology for Sensitivity Analysis, Approximate Analysis, and Design Optimization in CFD for Multidisciplinary Applications

An incremental iterative formulation together with the well-known spatially split approximate-factorization algorithm, is presented for solving the large, sparse systems of linear equations that are associated with aerodynamic sensitivity analysis. This formulation is also known as the 'delta' or 'correction' form. For the smaller two dimensional problems, a direct method can be applied to solve these linear equations in either the standard or the incremental form, in which case the two are equivalent. However, iterative methods are needed for larger two-dimensional and three dimensional applications because direct methods require more computer memory than is currently available. Iterative methods for solving these equations in the standard form are generally unsatisfactory due to an ill-conditioned coefficient matrix; this problem is overcome when these equations are cast in the incremental form. The methodology is successfully implemented and tested using an upwind cell-centered finite-volume formulation applied in two dimensions to the thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations for external flow over an airfoil. In three dimensions this methodology is demonstrated with a marching-solution algorithm for the Euler equations to calculate supersonic flow over the High-Speed Civil Transport configuration (HSCT 24E). The sensitivity derivatives obtained with the incremental iterative method from a marching Euler code are used in a design-improvement study of the HSCT configuration that involves thickness. camber, and planform design variables.

Taylor, Arthur C., III

Bayesian estimation - A sensitivity analysis

The robustness of the assigned prior distribution in a Bayesian estimation problem is examined. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic intensity parameter of a Poisson distribution is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by assuming the existence of a true prior which is different in form from that of the assigned prior distribution. By using mean-squared error as a measure of performance, the ensuing Bayes decision function is compared to the corresponding minimum variance unbiased estimator. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator is largely robust to deviations from the assigned prior and remains squared-error superior to the MVU type within a broad region.

Canavos, G. C.

Combustion kinetics and sensitivity analysis computations

The stiff ordinary differential equation solution methods more commonly used for chemical kinetics problems are examined, and the efficiency and accuracy of several of the methods are compared by applying them to two combustion kinetics problems. The local sensitivity analysis methods developed to date are outlined, and their advantages and difficulties are briefly discussed. Examples are used to make comparisons among the different techniques.

Radhakrishnan, K.

Automated Sensitivity Analysis of Interplanetary Trajectories for Optimal Mission Design

This work describes a suite of Python tools known as the Python EMTG Automated Trade Study Application (PEATSA). PEATSA was written to automate the operation of trajectory optimization software, simplify the process of performing sensitivity analysis, and was ultimately found to out-perform a human trajectory designer in unexpected ways. These benefits will be discussed and demonstrated on sample mission designs.

trajectory design

GLSENS: A Generalized Extension of LSENS Including Global Reactions and Added Sensitivity Analysis for the Perfectly Stirred Reactor

A generalized version of the NASA Lewis general kinetics code, LSENS, is described. The new code allows the use of global reactions as well as molecular processes in a chemical mechanism. The code also incorporates the capability of performing sensitivity analysis calculations for a perfectly stirred reactor rapidly and conveniently at the same time that the main kinetics calculations are being done. The GLSENS code has been extensively tested and has been found to be accurate and efficient. Nine example problems are presented and complete user instructions are given for the new capabilities. This report is to be used in conjunction with the documentation for the original LSENS code.

Bittker, David A.

VARI3D & PERSENT: Perturbation and Sensitivity Analysis

The nodal diffusion method is one of the most widely used approaches in modern reactor analysis. In the nodal diffusion method, a coarse multi-group set of “homogenized” parameters is constructed such that the complex geometry of a reactor core along with the energy dependence of neutron and gamma ray cross sections in a nuclear reactor are conserved in the simpler geometry. The homogenization is typically done on a fuel assembly level as is the case in the DIF3D code developed at Argonne National Laboratory. The nodal methodology is used primarily to predict fuel cycle behavior of nuclear systems of which there is a substantial amount of validation in the literature. Another use of the nodal method is to obtain reactivity coefficients and kinetics parameters for use in a safety analysis of a given nuclear reactor. While there are many ways to obtain reactivity worth and kinetics parameters, the work presented in this manuscript is unique as it provides the user with the ability to compute reactivity worths, kinetics parameters, and cross section sensitivities with a Cartesian and hexagonal geometry based transport code. This manuscript serves as a single manual for two separate codes: VARI3D and PERSENT. The VARI3D code (VARIational 3D) is based upon the classic finite difference diffusion theory solver available in DIF3D. The PERSENT code (PERturbation and SENitivity for Transport) is based upon the variational nodal method employed in DIF3D termed VARIANT. The VARIANT solver was added to DIF3D in 1995 and has seen continued development and use for the last 18 years. Because VARI3D primarily uses deprecated coding practices, rather than incorporating the perturbation and sensitivity treatments for transport within VARI3D, a new coding development was built using modern Fortran coding. The primary purpose of this manual is to describe the theory behind PERSENT (and by convenience, that of VARI3D) and discuss the input and output of PERSENT along with giving potential users an idea of how to use it. While this manuscript does describe the input and output of VARI3D, the PERSENT code is intended to be the replacement capability of VARI3D as PERSENT can generate nearly identical (if not superior) diffusion theory results. In this manuscript, the relevant aspects of generalized perturbation theory and exact perturbation theory that apply to both VARI3D and PERSENT are covered. The input and output of VARI3D is displayed by excerpting several of the example problems. Similarly, the input and output of PERSENT is displayed along with tips on how best to use the code. Note that the input and output of the inhomogeneous solver wrapped around DIF3D (DIF3D_IFS) is also discussed as it is needed to carry out some of the sensitivities in PERSENT such as reaction rate ratios. This manuscript describes several perturbation and sensitivity problems, and the results computed using PERSENT. From these sections, potential users should find that PERSENT provides not only the typical tables of numbers desired in perturbation and sensitivity analysis work, but also can visually plot the result for a more thorough understanding of the space and energy distribution (Section 5). Overall, PERSENT is observed to produce accurate reactivity worths and sensitivities for the displayed set of test problems and clearly demonstrates the need to have a transport-based sensitivity capability as evident from the thousands of percent errors observed in the 21-group hexagonal fast reactor problem (covered in Section 7). The uncertainty calculation capability is described in Section 3 and demonstrated in Section 7.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Extending "Deep Blue" Aerosol Retrieval Coverage to Cases of Absorbing Aerosols Above Clouds: Sensitivity Analysis and First Case Studies

Cases of absorbing aerosols above clouds (AACs), such as smoke or mineral dust, are omitted from most routinely processed space-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) data products, including those from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). This study presents a sensitivity analysis and preliminary algorithm to retrieve above-cloud AOD and liquid cloud optical depth (COD) for AAC cases from MODIS or similar sensors, for incorporation into a future version of the "Deep Blue" AOD data product. Detailed retrieval simulations suggest that these sensors should be able to determine AAC AOD with a typical level of uncertainty approximately 25-50 percent (with lower uncertainties for more strongly absorbing aerosol types) and COD with an uncertainty approximately10-20 percent, if an appropriate aerosol optical model is known beforehand. Errors are larger, particularly if the aerosols are only weakly absorbing, if the aerosol optical properties are not known, and the appropriate model to use must also be retrieved. Actual retrieval errors are also compared to uncertainty envelopes obtained through the optimal estimation (OE) technique; OE-based uncertainties are found to be generally reasonable for COD but larger than actual retrieval errors for AOD, due in part to difficulties in quantifying the degree of spectral correlation of forward model error. The algorithm is also applied to two MODIS scenes (one smoke and one dust) for which near-coincident NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sun photometer (AATS) data were available to use as a ground truth AOD data source, and found to be in good agreement, demonstrating the validity of the technique with real observations.

aerosols above clouds

Sensitivity Analysis and Control of Induction Cooktop for Non-Ferromagnetic Cookware

All metal induction cooktop has the potential to enable heating of both ferromagnetic and non-ferromagnetic cookware. Compared to ferromagnetic cookware, the performance of an induction cooktop with non-ferromagnetic cookware is impacted significantly by the cookware misalignment. A detailed sensitivity analysis to the cookware misalignment for non-ferromagnetic cookware is studied in this paper. Based on the analysis, a control architecture is presented which ensures desired power transfer to the non-ferromagnetic cookware and zero voltage turn on of the high frequency inverter irrespective of cookware misalignment. Results are presented to verify the analysis and proposed control strategy.

Mukherjee, Subho [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000672297925)