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At least 199 records · Page 11

Techno-economic comparison of sCO 2 cycles for particle-based CSP at design-point conditions

In this work, we compare the techno-economic performance of supercritical carbon dioxide power cycles integrated in a particle CSP system. We model four core cycle configurations: simple (with optional bypass), recompression (with optional bypass), partial cooling, and turbine split flow, which each demonstrate different benefits in a CSP system, such as high efficiency, low cost, or large HTF temperature differences. We parametrically sweep cycle design variables for each configuration. The set of power cycle performance results are then combined with a design point particle CSP system model which calculates the system specific cost. The simple cycle and turbine split flow cycles have the best performance in the baseline results, with system specific costs of 5,912 and 5,899 $\$$/kWe respectively. In addition to the baseline set of results, we also vary key parameters and costs in a sensitivity study. The cycle designs with the best system performance limit their efficiency to ~45 %, despite demonstrating higher maximum efficiencies, due to the rapid increase in cost of recuperation as efficiencies rise. The simple cycle has strong performance in the analysis and is on average only 1.4 % worse than the optimal configuration. Lowered turbine inlet temperatures from the sensitivity study improve performance by reducing the PHX and turbine cost. Decreasing the inlet temperature from 700 to 625°C results in an >8 % decrease in system specific cost. Future work should expand sensitivity analyses to colder turbine inlet temperatures and calculate system performance by simulating annual performance with off-design solar and cycle component models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Aerosol Profile Retrievals from Integrated Dual Wavelengths Space Lidar ESSP3-CENA and Spectral Radiance MODIS Data

The ESSP3-CENA space mission (formally PICASSO-CENA) will provide continues global observations with a two wavelength lidar. The attenuated backscattering coefficients measured by the lidar, have valuable information about the vertical distribution of aerosol particles and their sizes. However the information cannot be mapped into unique aerosol physical properties. Infinite number of physical solutions with different attenuations through the atmosphere can reconstruct the same two wavelength backscattered profile measured from space. Spectral radiance measured by MODIS simultaneously with the ESSP3 data can constrain the problem and resolve this ambiguity to a large extent. Sensitivity study shows that inversion of the integrated MODIS+ESSP3 data can derive the vertical profiles of the fine and coarse modes mixed in the same atmospheric column in the presence of moderate calibration uncertainties and electronic noise (approx. 10%). We shall present the sensitivity study and results from application of the technique to measurements in the SAFARI-2000 and SHADE experiments.

Kaufman, Yoram↗

Inclusion of Linearized Moist Physics in Nasa's Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

Inclusion of moist physics in the linearized version of a weather forecast model is beneficial in terms of variational data assimilation. Further, it improves the capability of important tools, such as adjoint-based observation impacts and sensitivity studies. A linearized version of the relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convection scheme has been developed and tested in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. A previous study of the RAS scheme showed it to exhibit reasonable linearity and stability. This motivates the development of a linearization of a near-exact version of the RAS scheme. Linearized large-scale condensation is included through simple conversion of supersaturation into precipitation. The linearization of moist physics is validated against the full nonlinear model for 6- and 24-h intervals, relevant to variational data assimilation and observation impacts, respectively. For a small number of profiles, sudden large growth in the perturbation trajectory is encountered. Efficient filtering of these profiles is achieved by diagnosis of steep gradients in a reduced version of the operator of the tangent linear model. With filtering turned on, the inclusion of linearized moist physics increases the correlation between the nonlinear perturbation trajectory and the linear approximation of the perturbation trajectory. A month-long observation impact experiment is performed and the effect of including moist physics on the impacts is discussed. Impacts from moist-sensitive instruments and channels are increased. The effect of including moist physics is examined for adjoint sensitivity studies. A case study examining an intensifying Northern Hemisphere Atlantic storm is presented. The results show a significant sensitivity with respect to moisture.

Convection↗

Analytical modeling of intumescent coating thermal protection system in a JP-5 fuel fire environment

The thermochemical response of Coating 313 when exposed to a fuel fire environment was studied to provide a tool for predicting the reaction time. The existing Aerotherm Charring Material Thermal Response and Ablation (CMA) computer program was modified to treat swelling materials. The modified code is now designated Aerotherm Transient Response of Intumescing Materials (TRIM) code. In addition, thermophysical property data for Coating 313 were analyzed and reduced for use in the TRIM code. An input data sensitivity study was performed, and performance tests of Coating 313/steel substrate models were carried out. The end product is a reliable computational model, the TRIM code, which was thoroughly validated for Coating 313. The tasks reported include: generation of input data, development of swell model and implementation in TRIM code, sensitivity study, acquisition of experimental data, comparisons of predictions with data, and predictions with intermediate insulation.

Clark, K. J.↗

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model summarizing the wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 kin. Launches of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle from Kennedy Space Center utilize CCAFS RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the CCAFS RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, a validation study on the 2006 version was conducted as well as a comparison analysis of the 2006 version to the existing CCAFS RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.

Burns, Lee↗

The 2006 Kennedy Space Center Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the Performance of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle Vehicle

The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model that summarizes wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 km. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle program, which launches from KSC, utilizes the KSC RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the KSC RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, the Natural Environments Branch at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) conducted a validation study and a comparison analysis to the existing KSC RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed by JSC/Ascent Flight Design Division to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.

Burns, Lee↗

Water-Leaving Contribution to Polarized Radiation Field Over Ocean

The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation field from a coupled atmosphere-ocean system (CAOS) includes contributions from the atmosphere, surface, and water body. Atmo-spheric correction of ocean color imagery is to retrieve water-leaving radiance from the TOA measurement, from which ocean bio-optical properties can be obtained. Knowledge of the ab-solute and relative magnitudes of water-leaving signal in the TOA radiation field is important for designing new atmospheric correction algorithms and developing retrieval algorithms for new ocean biogeochemical parameters. In this paper we present a systematic sensitivity study of water-leaving contribution to the TOA radiation field, from 340 nm to 865 nm, with polarization included. Ocean water inherent optical properties are derived from bio-optical models for two kinds of waters, one dominated by phytoplankton (PDW) and the other by non-algae particles (NDW). In addition to elastic scattering, Raman scattering and fluorescence from dissolved organic matter in ocean waters are included. Our sensitivity study shows that the polarized reflectance is minimized for both CAOS and ocean signals in the backscattering half plane, which leads to numerical instability when calculating water leaving relative contribution, the ratio between polarized water leaving and CAOS signals. If the backscattering plane is excluded, the water-leaving polarized signal contributes less than 9% to the TOA polarized reflectance for PDW in the whole spectra. For NDW, the polarized water leaving contribution can be as much as 20% in the wavelength range from 470 to 670 nm. For wavelengths shorter than 452 nm or longer than 865 nm, the water leaving contribution to the TOA polarized reflectance is in general smaller than 5% for NDW. For the TOA total reflectance, the water-leaving contribution has maximum values ranging from 7% to 16% at variable wavelengths from 400 nm to 550 nm from PDW. The water leaving contribution to the TOA total reflectance can be as large as 35%for NDW, which is in general peaked at 550 nm. Both the total and polarized reflectances from water-leaving contributions approach zero in the ultraviolet and near infrared bands. These facts can be used as constraints or guidelines when estimating the water leaving contribution to the TOA reflectance for new atmospheric correction algorithms for ocean color imagery.

inelastic scatterin↗

The sensitivity of a model of the ambient stratosphere to empirical inputs

The usefulness of a general application of sensitivity studies to the modeling of the ambient stratosphere using the GSFC steady-state photochemistry model is examined. The comparison of theoretical model results with field measurements of trace species is used to assess the applicability of the model to the stratosphere, to help determine the eddy diffusion profile, and to validate mechanisms within the photochemistry of the model. Specific examples of each are discussed and the results of a comprehensive sensitivity study used to elucidate certain points about the comparison are analyzed.

Butler, D. M.↗

Impact of Asian Aerosols on Precipitation Over California: An Observational and Model Based Approach

Dust and pollution emissions from Asia are often transported across the Pacific Ocean to over the western United States. Therefore, it is essential to fully understand the impact of these aerosols on clouds and precipitation forming over the eastern Pacific and western United States, especially during atmospheric river events that account for up to half of California's annual precipitation and can lead to widespread flooding. In order for numerical modeling simulations to accurately represent the present and future regional climate of the western United States, we must account for the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions associated with Asian dust and pollution aerosols. Therefore, we have constructed a detailed study utilizing multi-sensor satellite observations, NOAA-led field campaign measurements, and targeted numerical modeling studies where Asian aerosols interacted with cloud and precipitation processes over the western United States. In particular, we utilize aerosol optical depth retrievals from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-11), and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) to effectively detect and monitor the trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust and pollution. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals are used in assimilating the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in order to provide the model with an accurate representation of the aerosol spatial distribution across the Pacific. We conduct WRF-Chem model simulations of several cold-season atmospheric river events that interacted with Asian aerosols and brought significant precipitation over California during February-March 2011 when the NOAA CalWater field campaign was ongoing. The CalWater field campaign consisted of aircraft and surface measurements of aerosol and precipitation processes that help extensively validate our WRF-Chem model simulations. After validating the capability of the WRF-Chem in realistically simulating the aerosol-cloud precipitation interactions, we conduct sensitivity studies where the AOD is doubled to diagnose whether an increasing concentration of Asian aerosols over the western United States will lead to further impacts on the cloud and precipitation processes over California. We also perform sensitivity studies where the aerosols will be partitioned into dust-only and pollution-only in order to separate the impacts of the differing Asian aerosol species. The results of our WRF-Chem model simulations aim to show that the trans-Pacific transport of Asian aerosols influence the precipitation associated with atmospheric river events that can ultimately impact the regional climate of the western United States. 1 University

Naeger, Aaron R.↗

Micromechanical Design of Carbon Nanotube Ribbon Reinforced Polymer Composite Materials

Lightweight materials are an important component of the design of aerospace structures. Carbon nanotube materials have been considered for this purpose due to the strength and stiffness of individual nanotubes, and the commercial availability of bulk formats such as fibers. These fibers can have a ribbon cross section which results in a different design space for their composites relative to traditional reinforcements which have a round cross section. This work applies brick-and-mortar micromechanical models and classical lamination theory with an inverse approach to investigate the design space of these composites. Using this approach, the influences of fiber geometry and axial and transverse mechanical properties are mapped. Finally, a sensitivity study is performed and the relative impacts of ±10% variations in the constituent material and geometric properties are ranked. Lamina axial moduli were found to range from a maximum of 3x to 1x minimum relative to a target quasi-isotropic laminate modulus depending on the anisotropy and shear modulus of the lamina. The fiber targets depended strongly on the fiber volume fraction in the lamina and the fiber axial modulus target was found to range from 4.8x to 3.2x the quasi-isotropic laminate target. The sensitivity analysis found that the largest driver of performance was the volume fraction, followed by the fiber axial modulus. While bio-based brick-and-mortar composites, such as nacre, can benefit from reinforcement aspect ratios above 10, for carbon nanotube ribbon (or carbon fiber)/polymer composites the sensitivity study indicated that the optimal cross-sectional aspect ratio was relatively smaller, potentially less than three.

Micromechanics↗

Investigating performance and variability of NIF ICF experiments with deep learning

The parameter space involved in designing an inertial confinement fusion shot at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is massively multi-dimensional and the cost of a single shot makes a comprehensive set of sensitivity studies in the laboratory impractical. The use of machine learning to overcome these challenges has gained popularity and has had several successful applications by the scientific community. We extend on these efforts by training a neural network (NN) on information about the experimental design, engineering elements, and drive asymmetry to predict with uncertainty the neutron yield of an experiment. We find the measured and model predicted values are in good agreement, with an R 2 value of 0.91 for a randomly selected test dataset. Almost all the predicted 95% credible intervals contain the corresponding measured value for both training and test datasets. We identify correlations picked up by the NN between the shot design, yield, and variability and use them to motivate shot sensitivity studies. The first shot to exceed the Lawson-like ignition criteria (N210808) was conducted at the NIF and subsequent shots studied the design’s robustness. In a follow-up shot to N210808, our model predicts capsule quality to be the main performance degradation mechanism that prevented the shot from repeating previous performance levels. Shot N221204 was the first shot to exceed a target energy gain of 1. Our model predicts increased yield with reduced coast time for a N221204 study and greater variability for designs with lower peak powers at constant yield. The model’s fast prediction speed and uncertainty prediction are useful for identifying interesting design paths that could warrant further investigation with conventional simulations to search for robust high yield designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Mars-GRAM 2010: Improving the Precision of Mars-GRAM

It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) when used for sensitivity studies for Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) MapYear=0 and large optical depth values, such as tau=3, is less than realistic. Mars-GRAM's perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). Mars-GRAM 2005 has been validated against Radio Science data, and both nadir and limb data from TES. Traditional Mars-GRAM options for representing the mean atmosphere along entry corridors include: (1) TES mapping year 0, with user-controlled dust optical depth and Mars-GRAM data interpolated from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) results driven by selected values of globally-uniform dust optical depth, or (2) TES mapping years 1 and 2, with Mars-GRAM data coming from MGCM results driven by observed TES dust optical depth. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars-GRAM is based on NASA Ames MGCM. Above 80 km, Mars-GRAM is based on the University of Michigan Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear=0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. This choice of data has led to discrepancies that have become apparent during recent sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depths. Unrealistic energy absorption by time-invariant atmospheric dust leads to an unrealistic thermal energy balance on the polar caps. The outcome is an inaccurate cycle of condensation/sublimation of the polar caps and, as a consequence, an inaccurate cycle of total atmospheric mass and global-average surface pressure. Under an assumption of unchanged temperature profile and hydrostatic equilibrium, a given percentage change in surface pressure would produce a corresponding percentage change in density at all altitudes. Consequently, the final result of a change in surface pressure is an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes.

Justh, H. L.↗

Design tradeoff studies and sensitivity analysis, appendix B

Further work was performed on the Near Term Hybrid Passenger Vehicle Development Program. Fuel economy on the order of 2 to 3 times that of a conventional vehicle, with a comparable life cycle cost, is possible. The two most significant factors in keeping the life cycle cost down are the retail price increment and the ratio of battery replacement cost to battery life. Both factors can be reduced by reducing the power rating of the electric drive portion of the system relative to the system power requirements. The type of battery most suitable for the hybrid, from the point of view of minimizing life cycle cost, is nickel-iron. The hybrid is much less sensitive than a conventional vehicle is, in terms of the reduction in total fuel consumption and resultant decreases in operating expense, to reductions in vehicle weight, tire rolling resistance, etc., and to propulsion system and drivetrain improvements designed to improve the brake specific fuel consumption of the engine under low road load conditions. It is concluded that modifications to package the propulsion system and battery pack can be easily accommodated within the confines of a modified carryover body such as the Ford Ltd.

Source record↗

Design tradeoff studies and sensitivity analysis, appendices B1 - B4

Documentation is presented for a program which separately computes fuel and energy consumption for the two modes of operation of a hybrid electric vehicle. The distribution of daily travel is specified as input data as well as the weights which the component driving cycles are given in each of the composite cycles. The possibility of weight reduction through the substitution of various materials is considered as well as the market potential for hybrid vehicles. Data relating to battery compartment weight distribution and vehicle handling analysis is tabulated.

Source record↗

Risk-Based Fire Safety Experiment Definition for Manned Spacecraft

Risk methodology is used to define experiments to be conducted in space which will help to construct and test the models required for accident sequence identification. The development of accident scenarios is based on the realization that whether damage occurs depends on the time competition of two processes: the ignition and creation of an adverse environment, and the detection and suppression activities. If the fire grows and causes damage faster than it is detected and suppressed, then an accident occurred. The proposed integrated experiments will provide information on individual models that apply to each of the above processes, as well as previously unidentified interactions and processes, if any. Initially, models that are used in terrestrial fire risk assessments are considered. These include heat and smoke release models, detection and suppression models, as well as damage models. In cases where the absence of gravity substantially invalidates a model, alternate models will be developed. Models that depend on buoyancy effects, such as the multizone compartment fire models, are included in these cases. The experiments will be performed in a variety of geometries simulating habitable areas, racks, and other spaces. These simulations will necessitate theoretical studies of scaling effects. Sensitivity studies will also be carried out including the effects of varying oxygen concentrations, pressures, fuel orientation and geometry, and air flow rates. The experimental apparatus described herein includes three major modules: the combustion, the fluids, and the command and power modules.

Apostolakis, G. E.↗

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle

NASA's Space Shuttle utilizes atmospheric thermodynamic properties to evaluate structural dynamics and vehicle flight performance impacts by the atmosphere during ascent. Statistical characteristics of atmospheric thermodynamic properties at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) used in Space. Shuttle Vehicle assessments are contained in the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) Database. Database contains tabulations for monthly and annual means (mu), standard deviations (sigma) and skewness of wind and thermodynamic variables. Wind, Thermodynamic, Humidity and Hydrostatic parameters 1 km resolution interval from 0-30 km 2 km resolution interval 30-70 km Multiple revisions of the CCAFS RRA database have been developed since initial RRA published in 1963. 1971, 1983, 2006 Space Shuttle program utilized 1983 version for use in deriving "hot" and "cold" atmospheres, atmospheric density dispersions for use in vehicle certification analyses and selection of atmospheric thermodynamic profiles for use in vehicle ascent design and certification analyses. During STS-114 launch preparations in July 2005 atmospheric density observations between 50-80 kft exceeded density limits used for aerodynamic ascent heating constraints in vehicle certification analyses. Mission specific analyses were conducted and concluded that the density bias resulted in small changes to heating rates and integrated heat loading on the vehicle. In 2001, the Air Force Combat Climatology Center began developing an updated RRA for CCAFS.

Decker, Ryan↗

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle

Atmospheric parameters are essential in assessing the flight performance of aerospace vehicles. The effects of the Earth's atmosphere on aerospace vehicles influence various aspects of the vehicle during ascent ranging from its flight trajectory to the structural dynamics and aerodynamic heatmg on the vehicle. Atmospheric databases charactenzing the wind and thermodynamic environments, known as Range Reference Atmospheres (RRA), have been developed at space launch ranges by a governmental interagency working group for use by aerospace vehicle programs. The National Aeronantics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle Program (SSP), which launches from Kennedy Space Center, utilizes atmosphenc statistics derived from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere (CCAFS RRA) database to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehlcle during ascent.

Decker, Ryan K.↗